CIO Macro Quad Regime Backtest

Macro Lens-derived growth and inflation impulses mapped into a four-regime framework, then backtested against the Strategist ETF universe using same-month returns while the model was in each regime. The lower-left quadrant remains one regime, but the page separately flags V-shaped relief rallies so stress/slowdown performance can be read with and without those rebound months.

Current Regime GoldilocksBayesian Confidence 61.9%Growth Impulse +2.20Inflation Impulse -2.43Generated 07/25/2026 18:41

Current Regime

QuadGoldilocksGrowth rising, inflation pressure falling

Growth Level56.2Macro Lens Growth Permission

Inflation Pressure47.7100 minus Inflation Permission

Best backdrop for balanced risk when the Strategist deck confirms breadth, options, and momentum.

Bayesian Confidence

Most LikelyGoldilocks

Posterior61.9%

Runner-UpReflation

Margin+37.9 pp

The posterior starts from historical quad frequencies and updates using current growth impulse, inflation impulse, growth level, and inflation-pressure level. It is a confidence layer, not a second regime definition.

Backtest Coverage

Macro Months25505/2005 to 07/2026

ETF Universe113Strategist universe with price overlap

Missing ETFNone

Min Obs18per ETF by regime

Backtests use same-month returns while the regime is active. Forward returns can be added later as a transition study, but they are not used as the main playbook.

How To Read This Page

1. Identify the macro regime.The scatter and monthly tape show whether growth and inflation impulses are improving or deteriorating. Disinflationary slowdown stays as one regime, with a separate V-shaped recovery adjustment for large equity rebounds.

2. Check whether the history is usable.The performance cards, bootstrap ranges, hit rates, and worst-month columns show whether prior returns were persistent or just one noisy episode.

3. Translate to portfolio work.Use the sleeve and ETF tables as candidates, then require confirmation from the CIO Missive, Strategist command center, options, VAMS, and ticker tape before sizing trades.

Macro Regime Path

Each dot is one month and is labeled with month plus year. Right side means growth impulse is improving; left side means growth impulse is weakening. Upper half means inflation pressure is rising; lower half means inflation pressure is easing.

Interpretation: the current dot tells you the active macro regime; the path tells you whether the regime is stable or transitioning. Lower-left months can include policy-relief rallies, so the separate adjustment table shows performance before and after removing those rebounds.

Monthly Regime Tape

Same history as the scatter, shown as a month-by-month regime lane.

Why it matters: repeated months in the same lane mean regime persistence. Frequent lane changes mean the macro backdrop is unstable and position sizing should be more conservative.

Bayesian Regime Probability

Confidence rises when growth and inflation impulses are far from the zero lines and levels confirm the directional message.

What it is: this is a probability-style confidence check around the current regime. It should agree with the scatter; if it does not, the regime is transitional.

S&P 500 Price And Drawdown With Macro Quad Background

This chart overlays the model's monthly macro-quad regime bands behind the daily S&P 500 price path since 2018. The top panel is log-scale price; the bottom panel is the rolling drawdown from the prior high.

How to use it: use the background colors to see whether the model's regime changes lined up with major market advances, drawdowns, and recoveries. The drawdown panel is the cleaner risk check: large declines should cluster in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown, while constructive regimes should generally coincide with repair or compounding.

GoldilocksReflationInflation/StagflationDisinflationary Slowdown

Equity Stress Concentration Test

This checks whether large SPY downside months clustered in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown instead of relying only on visual inspection.

Validation Test	Months	Inflation/Stagflation Or Disinflationary Slowdown Share	What It Means
Large monthly loss	10 / 11	90.9%	10 of 11 SPY months worse than -5% occurred in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown.
Severe monthly loss	6 / 6	100.0%	6 of 6 SPY months worse than -7% occurred in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown.
Deep drawdown state	12 / 16	75.0%	12 of 16 months with SPY at least 10% below its prior high occurred in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown.
Interpretation			Monthly shock months validate the regime map most cleanly. Drawdown-state months are less pure because price can remain below its prior high after the macro regime has already started to repair.

Regime Performance Dashboard

Each card shows what SPY historically did in that macro regime and which sleeve/ETF ranks best inside the current universe. The highlighted card is the current Macro Lens regime.

Use this first: it gives the high-level answer before the detailed tables. If the current regime has weak SPY history, low hit rate, or no clear sleeve leadership, the macro regime alone should not justify aggressive risk.

Current quad

Goldilocks

Growth rising, inflation pressure falling

SPY Ann.19.6%

SPY Avg Mo.1.50%

Hit Rate76%

Months54

Top macro-aligned sleeve: Growth / Tech Leadership
Top macro-aligned ETF: ARKK
Highest raw ETF: BTC-USD

Historical quad

Reflation

Growth rising, inflation pressure rising

SPY Ann.25.4%

SPY Avg Mo.1.90%

Hit Rate75%

Months53

Top macro-aligned sleeve: Factors / Risk Appetite
Top macro-aligned ETF: BTC-USD
Highest raw ETF: BTC-USD

Historical quad

Inflation/Stagflation

Growth falling, inflation pressure rising

SPY Ann.5.7%

SPY Avg Mo.0.46%

Hit Rate58%

Months43

Top macro-aligned sleeve: Metals / Miners
Top macro-aligned ETF: PALL
Highest raw ETF: XOP

Historical quad

Disinflationary Slowdown

Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak

SPY Ann.10.2%

SPY Avg Mo.0.81%

Hit Rate60%

Months48

Top macro-aligned sleeve: Metals / Miners
Top macro-aligned ETF: URNM
Highest raw ETF: URNM

Bootstrapped Return Ranges By Regime

The chart ranks SPY and the strongest sleeves inside each macro regime. Bars show average same-month return; error bars show a 90% bootstrap range around that average.

How to use it: the useful read is not just which sleeve has the highest bar. Favor sleeves with attractive average monthly returns, tolerable uncertainty bands, and enough observations. Use the buttons in the chart to switch regimes.

Quad	Months	SPY Avg Month	SPY Ann.	SPY Mean 90% Range	SPY Realized 5-95%	Top Sleeve	Sleeve Avg Month	Sleeve Ann.	Sleeve Mean 90% Range	Sleeve Realized 5-95%
Goldilocks	54	1.50%	19.6%	0.78% to 2.25%	-5.47% to 6.23%	Growth / Tech Leadership	1.86%	24.8%	0.78% to 2.89%	-6.69% to 8.65%
Reflation	53	1.90%	25.4%	1.19% to 2.62%	-2.99% to 6.79%	Factors / Risk Appetite	1.75%	23.2%	1.00% to 2.48%	-4.06% to 5.69%
Inflation/Stagflation	43	0.46%	5.7%	-0.55% to 1.50%	-7.68% to 6.52%	Metals / Miners	0.85%	10.7%	-0.83% to 2.48%	-8.39% to 11.06%
Disinflationary Slowdown	48	0.81%	10.2%	-0.52% to 2.15%	-8.15% to 9.12%	Metals / Miners	1.88%	25.0%	-0.11% to 3.92%	-8.51% to 14.57%

Disinflation Adjusted For V-Shaped Recoveries

Disinflationary slowdown can look stronger than intuition because it includes large equity rebounds after prior drawdowns. This table shows the full disinflation sample and the same sample after removing those V-shaped recovery months.

Why this matters: this keeps the regime honest. The full sample shows what actually happened, while the ex-rebound columns show the performance profile without a handful of sharp policy-relief rallies lifting the average.

Market / Sleeve	Sleeve	Full Months	Rally Months Removed	Full Avg Mo	Ex-Rebound Avg Mo	Full Ann.	Ex-Rebound Ann.	Ex-Rebound Hit	Worst Month
S&P 500	Core Index Beta	48	7	0.81%	-0.62%	10.2%	-7.2%	54%	-12.49%
Metals / Miners	Metals / Miners	48	7	1.88%	0.21%	25.0%	2.5%	49%	-19.57%
Rates / Credit	Rates / Credit	48	7	0.40%	0.04%	4.9%	0.5%	56%	-4.92%
Defensive Sectors	Defensive Sectors	48	7	0.66%	-0.13%	8.2%	-1.5%	54%	-8.78%
Commodities / Crypto / USD	Commodities / Crypto / USD	48	7	0.49%	-0.24%	6.0%	-2.9%	49%	-15.88%
Growth / Tech Leadership	Growth / Tech Leadership	48	7	1.19%	-0.54%	15.2%	-6.2%	46%	-11.33%
Factors / Risk Appetite	Factors / Risk Appetite	46	7	0.71%	-0.56%	8.9%	-6.5%	55%	-16.67%
Core Index Beta	Core Index Beta	48	7	0.84%	-0.72%	10.5%	-8.3%	51%	-13.15%
Style / Market Structure	Style / Market Structure	48	7	0.78%	-0.73%	9.8%	-8.4%	56%	-14.68%
Financial / Health Care Industries	Financial / Health Care Industries	48	7	0.58%	-0.96%	7.2%	-11.0%	51%	-15.85%
Cyclical Sectors	Cyclical Sectors	48	7	0.77%	-1.11%	9.7%	-12.6%	54%	-20.77%
Thematic / Speculative Growth	Thematic / Speculative Growth	48	7	0.55%	-1.12%	6.8%	-12.7%	49%	-30.82%
International Equity	International Equity	48	7	0.14%	-1.13%	1.7%	-12.8%	44%	-19.68%
Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	48	7	0.29%	-2.16%	3.6%	-23.1%	37%	-29.47%

Flagged V-Shaped Recovery Months

Flagged when SPY is up at least 6% in the disinflationary slowdown regime after a prior-month SPY decline of at least 3%.

Month	SPY Return	Prior SPY Return	Growth Level	Growth Impulse	Inflation Pressure	Why Flagged
01/2023	6.29%	-5.76%	48.1	-0.19	68.9	SPY +6% or more after prior month <= -3%.
10/2022	8.13%	-9.24%	45.0	-1.86	77.7	SPY +6% or more after prior month <= -3%.
07/2022	9.21%	-8.25%	46.3	-9.69	79.7	SPY +6% or more after prior month <= -3%.
04/2020	12.70%	-12.49%	42.0	-8.99	23.6	SPY +6% or more after prior month <= -3%.
01/2019	8.01%	-8.80%	53.3	-4.33	36.2	SPY +6% or more after prior month <= -3%.
10/2011	10.91%	-6.94%	52.5	-0.37	36.3	SPY +6% or more after prior month <= -3%.
09/2010	8.96%	-4.50%	49.6	-1.45	30.3	SPY +6% or more after prior month <= -3%.

Current Regime Decision Playbook

This converts the current regime into a usable PM workflow: where the macro regime naturally points, where historical performance is tactical rather than intuitive, and what requires confirmation before it becomes an allocation.

Read this as a shortlist: primary sleeves are the most natural expressions of the current macro regime; tactical sleeves may have worked historically but need stronger market confirmation before they deserve capital.

Decision Layer	Evidence	Numbers	PM Use
Primary macro sleeves	Growth / Tech Leadership, Core Index Beta, Style / Market Structure, Financial / Health Care Industries	Growth / Tech Leadership: 24.8% ann, 0.36% excess; Core Index Beta: 21.1% ann, 0.10% excess; Style / Market Structure: 19.5% ann, -0.01% excess	Use as the first shortlist only when Strategist, options, VAMS, and ticker-level tape confirm the same direction.
Tactical / verify sleeves	Thematic / Speculative Growth, Defensive Sectors, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, International Equity	Thematic / Speculative Growth: 17.7% ann, -0.13% excess; Defensive Sectors: 12.7% ann, -0.50% excess; Industries / Infrastructure / Housing: 11.4% ann, -0.59% excess	Historically worked in the regime, but it is not the natural macro expression; require stronger market confirmation before using it as an allocation.
De-prioritize on macro alone	Metals / Miners, Commodities / Crypto / USD, International Equity, Rates / Credit	Metals / Miners: -10.2% ann, -2.39% excess; Commodities / Crypto / USD: 8.2% ann, -0.84% excess; International Equity: 5.8% ann, -1.03% excess	Require exceptional bottom-up or tactical evidence; these are not the natural current-quad expressions.
Macro-aligned ETF shortlist	ARKK (Speculative Innovation), XBI (Biotech), QTUM (Quantum Computing), AIQ (Artificial Intelligence), SMH (Semiconductors), XLC (Communication Services), PNQI (Internet), IGV (Software)	ARKK: 48.1% ann, 73% hit; XBI: 40.2% ann, 61% hit; QTUM: 36.4% ann, 76% hit; AIQ: 37.7% ann, 70% hit	Best place to begin ticker-level review because history and macro logic both point in the same direction.
Highest raw ETF performers	BTC-USD (Bitcoin), ARKK (Speculative Innovation), XBI (Biotech), QTUM (Quantum Computing), AIQ (Artificial Intelligence), CRAK (Oil Refiners), SMH (Semiconductors), XLC (Communication Services)	BTC-USD: 225.5% ann, 8.48% excess; ARKK: 48.1% ann, 1.48% excess; XBI: 40.2% ann, 1.36% excess; QTUM: 36.4% ann, 0.55% excess	Useful for opportunity scan, but not enough by itself; volatile or less intuitive tickers need a higher confirmation burden.
Risk control	Worst-month and hit-rate columns are mandatory context.	A high annualized return with weak hit rate or severe worst month is a trade candidate, not a sleeve anchor.	Position sizing should come from the CIO Missive and Strategist command center; this page supplies regime evidence.

Current Regime Sleeve Ranking

Current regime is Goldilocks. This table ranks sleeves by same-month average return, annualized return, excess return versus SPY, hit rate, and downside month.

Decision rule: annualized return shows scale, average month shows the actual observed monthly edge, hit rate shows consistency, and worst month shows sizing risk.

Sleeve	ETF Count	Obs	Avg Mo	Ann. Return	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Rank
Growth / Tech Leadership	12	54	1.86%	24.8%	0.36%	67%	-9.68%	1.06
Core Index Beta	6	54	1.60%	21.1%	0.10%	74%	-7.87%	1.06
Style / Market Structure	6	54	1.49%	19.5%	-0.01%	74%	-7.72%	0.97
Financial / Health Care Industries	10	54	1.52%	19.8%	0.02%	67%	-8.72%	0.81
Factors / Risk Appetite	5	49	1.28%	16.5%	-0.34%	71%	-7.36%	0.69
Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	54	1.37%	17.7%	-0.13%	65%	-11.04%	0.65
Cyclical Sectors	7	54	1.25%	16.0%	-0.25%	67%	-9.36%	0.60
Defensive Sectors	4	54	1.00%	12.7%	-0.50%	70%	-5.55%	0.51
Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	54	0.91%	11.4%	-0.59%	54%	-12.59%	0.02
Rates / Credit	14	54	0.40%	4.9%	-1.10%	69%	-2.45%	0.01
International Equity	8	54	0.47%	5.8%	-1.03%	63%	-11.86%	-0.07
Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	54	0.66%	8.2%	-0.84%	54%	-9.68%	-0.16
Metals / Miners	10	54	-0.89%	-10.2%	-2.39%	44%	-14.66%	-1.56

Regime Summary

Quad	Definition	Months	SPY Avg Month	SPY Hit Rate	Model Use
Goldilocks	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling	54	1.50%	76%	Best backdrop for balanced risk when the Strategist deck confirms breadth, options, and momentum.
Reflation	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising	54	1.90%	75%	Own growth through cyclicals, inflation-sensitive assets, industrials, and semis; be careful with duration.
Inflation/Stagflation	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising	43	0.46%	58%	Hardest macro mix: prefer real assets, defensives, hedges, and quality until inflation or growth repairs.
Disinflationary Slowdown	Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak	48	0.81%	60%	Disinflationary slowdown can be policy-relief or true stress. Treat it as a hedge/quality regime unless credit, drawdown, liquidity, and Strategist confirmation argue for adding risk.

Bayesian Details

Quad	Prior	Posterior	Evidence Update	Definition	PM Use
Goldilocks	25.9%	61.9%	+36.0 pp	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling	Best backdrop for balanced risk when the Strategist deck confirms breadth, options, and momentum.
Reflation	23.9%	24.0%	+0.0 pp	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising	Own growth through cyclicals, inflation-sensitive assets, industrials, and semis; be careful with duration.
Disinflationary Slowdown	25.5%	10.0%	-15.4 pp	Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak	Disinflationary slowdown can be policy-relief or true stress. Treat it as a hedge/quality regime unless credit, drawdown, liquidity, and Strategist confirmation argue for adding risk.
Inflation/Stagflation	24.7%	4.1%	-20.6 pp	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising	Hardest macro mix: prefer real assets, defensives, hedges, and quality until inflation or growth repairs.

Best ETF Performers By Regime

This is the direct "what worked in each regime" layer. Tables are same-month backtests by regime, ranked by a blend of excess return versus SPY, average return, and hit rate.

How to use it: start with the current regime, then compare the same ETF across other regimes. A ticker that only works in one regime is a tactical expression; a ticker that works across regimes is more suitable as a core sleeve candidate.

Current regime

Goldilocks ETF Leaders

Growth rising, inflation pressure falling. Ranked by the composite of same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	225.5%	10.34%	8.48%	65%	-13.88%	34
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Growth / Tech Leadership	48.1%	3.33%	1.48%	73%	-13.74%	33
XBI	Biotech	Financial / Health Care Industries	40.2%	2.86%	1.36%	61%	-10.31%	54
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Growth / Tech Leadership	36.4%	2.62%	0.55%	76%	-15.61%	25
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Growth / Tech Leadership	37.7%	2.70%	0.64%	70%	-11.63%	27
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	35.0%	2.53%	0.69%	70%	-9.67%	33
SMH	Semiconductors	Growth / Tech Leadership	33.8%	2.46%	0.96%	65%	-15.50%	54
XLC	Communication Services	Cyclical Sectors	31.9%	2.33%	0.27%	74%	-5.95%	27
PNQI	Internet	Growth / Tech Leadership	28.9%	2.14%	0.64%	67%	-9.90%	54
IGV	Software	Growth / Tech Leadership	27.9%	2.07%	0.57%	69%	-8.31%	54
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Core Index Beta	27.8%	2.07%	0.57%	69%	-8.23%	54
IBB	Biotech Large Cap	Financial / Health Care Industries	29.5%	2.18%	0.68%	65%	-10.96%	54
XLK	Technology	Growth / Tech Leadership	27.3%	2.03%	0.53%	69%	-8.66%	54
OEF	S&P 100	Core Index Beta	22.0%	1.67%	0.17%	76%	-8.50%	54
BUG	Cybersecurity	Growth / Tech Leadership	37.6%	2.70%	0.24%	63%	-9.00%	19
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	25.0%	1.88%	0.38%	69%	-9.08%	54
XLG	S&P Top 50	Core Index Beta	23.0%	1.74%	0.24%	72%	-8.47%	54
QUAL	Quality Factor	Factors / Risk Appetite	23.1%	1.75%	0.01%	77%	-6.58%	39

Historical regime

Reflation ETF Leaders

Growth rising, inflation pressure rising. Ranked by the composite of same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	142.5%	7.66%	5.85%	62%	-35.35%	37
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Growth / Tech Leadership	59.6%	3.97%	2.12%	68%	-7.65%	25
SMH	Semiconductors	Growth / Tech Leadership	45.1%	3.15%	1.25%	74%	-5.65%	53
UFO	Space Economy	Thematic / Speculative Growth	40.1%	2.85%	1.00%	60%	-22.32%	25
CARZ	Global Autos	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	32.2%	2.35%	0.54%	72%	-8.61%	47
IHF	Health Care Providers	Financial / Health Care Industries	30.2%	2.23%	0.33%	74%	-12.00%	53
MTUM	Momentum Factor	Factors / Risk Appetite	31.5%	2.31%	0.60%	67%	-5.47%	42
SIL	Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	42.6%	3.00%	1.12%	46%	-23.68%	52
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	40.4%	2.87%	1.15%	47%	-26.25%	45
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Core Index Beta	30.8%	2.26%	0.36%	68%	-5.78%	53
PAVE	Infrastructure	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	31.7%	2.32%	0.31%	68%	-11.33%	28
XHB	Homebuilders	Cyclical Sectors	28.4%	2.10%	0.20%	72%	-14.82%	53
NXTG	Next-Gen Connectivity	Growth / Tech Leadership	27.5%	2.04%	0.27%	71%	-7.18%	48
XLK	Technology	Growth / Tech Leadership	31.5%	2.31%	0.41%	64%	-5.76%	53
SPY	S&P 500	Core Index Beta	25.4%	1.90%	0.00%	75%	-4.94%	53
RSP	S&P 500 Equal Weight	Core Index Beta	23.4%	1.77%	-0.13%	79%	-6.27%	53
OEF	S&P 100	Core Index Beta	26.1%	1.95%	0.05%	74%	-4.75%	53
IWD	Russell 1000 Value	Style / Market Structure	24.1%	1.81%	-0.09%	77%	-6.86%	53

Historical regime

Inflation/Stagflation ETF Leaders

Growth falling, inflation pressure rising. Ranked by the composite of same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
XOP	Oil & Gas Exploration	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	35.7%	2.58%	2.12%	53%	-22.27%	43
PALL	Palladium	Commodities / Crypto / USD	29.9%	2.20%	1.74%	63%	-22.80%	43
FCG	Natural Gas Producers	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	29.6%	2.19%	1.73%	60%	-22.68%	43
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	19.3%	1.48%	1.23%	71%	-11.58%	28
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	32.0%	2.34%	2.11%	45%	-37.77%	31
COPX	Copper Miners	Metals / Miners	27.4%	2.04%	1.58%	56%	-21.44%	43
XLE	Energy	Cyclical Sectors	25.0%	1.87%	1.41%	58%	-17.07%	43
XES	Oil & Gas Equipment	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	22.4%	1.70%	1.24%	56%	-22.17%	43
XME	Metals & Mining	Metals / Miners	22.1%	1.68%	1.22%	53%	-18.71%	43
IAK	Insurance	Financial / Health Care Industries	14.0%	1.10%	0.64%	65%	-10.92%	43
KRE	Regional Banks	Financial / Health Care Industries	15.7%	1.22%	0.76%	60%	-12.33%	43
OIH	Oil Services	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	18.8%	1.44%	0.98%	53%	-20.74%	43
IAI	Broker-Dealers	Financial / Health Care Industries	14.3%	1.12%	0.66%	63%	-11.02%	43
SPHB	High Beta	Factors / Risk Appetite	15.2%	1.18%	0.83%	57%	-13.86%	40
EWU	United Kingdom	International Equity	10.8%	0.86%	0.40%	67%	-10.23%	43
INDA	India	International Equity	15.0%	1.17%	0.70%	58%	-10.58%	38
GRID	Smart Grid Infrastructure	Growth / Tech Leadership	13.6%	1.07%	0.61%	60%	-10.03%	43
DBC	Broad Commodities	Commodities / Crypto / USD	13.4%	1.05%	0.59%	60%	-8.76%	43

Historical regime

Disinflationary Slowdown ETF Leaders

Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak. Ranked by the composite of same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
URNM	Uranium Miners	Metals / Miners	138.6%	7.52%	6.05%	70%	-16.24%	20
GDX	Gold Miners	Metals / Miners	58.9%	3.94%	3.13%	71%	-14.29%	48
GDXJ	Junior Gold Miners	Metals / Miners	52.2%	3.56%	2.75%	60%	-24.55%	48
SIL	Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	49.0%	3.38%	2.57%	62%	-25.48%	48
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	45.4%	3.17%	2.46%	57%	-22.67%	40
SLV	Silver	Commodities / Crypto / USD	34.2%	2.48%	1.67%	60%	-28.53%	48
PLTM	Platinum	Commodities / Crypto / USD	37.5%	2.69%	1.55%	59%	-16.06%	27
SMH	Semiconductors	Growth / Tech Leadership	30.3%	2.23%	1.42%	60%	-13.73%	48
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	30.3%	2.23%	1.52%	50%	-36.41%	40
GLD	Gold	Commodities / Crypto / USD	24.8%	1.86%	1.06%	62%	-11.06%	48
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Growth / Tech Leadership	25.4%	1.90%	0.74%	65%	-13.39%	26
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Growth / Tech Leadership	25.7%	1.92%	0.78%	63%	-12.15%	27
XHB	Homebuilders	Cyclical Sectors	19.1%	1.47%	0.66%	58%	-29.87%	48
XBI	Biotech	Financial / Health Care Industries	18.1%	1.40%	0.59%	60%	-27.99%	48
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Growth / Tech Leadership	20.9%	1.59%	0.89%	52%	-18.18%	40
COPX	Copper Miners	Metals / Miners	21.9%	1.66%	0.85%	52%	-32.06%	48
ITB	Home Construction	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	19.8%	1.51%	0.71%	54%	-33.17%	48
PAVE	Infrastructure	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	21.1%	1.61%	0.49%	57%	-20.99%	28

Group Excess Return Map

Green means the group historically outperformed SPY in that regime; red means it lagged. Color is scaled within each regime column so every regime shows its own leaders and laggards instead of being washed out by one extreme column.

Important: the colors are relative inside each regime column, but the printed numbers are actual average monthly excess returns versus SPY. Use the color to scan; use the number to decide.

ETF Tables By Sleeve

All ETFs are shown inside their Strategist sleeves. Each regime shows annualized and average monthly same-month return; the current-regime columns show the live playbook read.

Table logic: use Best Quad to see the historical sweet spot, Current Ann and Current Avg to judge the current regime, Current Excess to compare against SPY, and Hit Rate plus Obs to judge reliability.

Sleeve ETF table

Core Index Beta

Top current-quad candidate: QQQ at 27.8% annualized, 0.57% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Reflation	27.8%	2.07%	30.8%	2.26%	7.3%	0.59%	16.6%	1.29%	27.8%	2.07%	0.57%	69%	54
OEF	S&P 100	Reflation	22.0%	1.67%	26.1%	1.95%	4.4%	0.36%	9.8%	0.78%	22.0%	1.67%	0.17%	76%	54
XLG	S&P Top 50	Reflation	23.0%	1.74%	24.9%	1.87%	4.3%	0.35%	10.1%	0.80%	23.0%	1.74%	0.24%	72%	54
SPY	S&P 500	Reflation	19.6%	1.50%	25.4%	1.90%	5.7%	0.46%	10.2%	0.81%	19.6%	1.50%	0.00%	76%	54
RSP	S&P 500 Equal Weight	Reflation	15.0%	1.17%	23.4%	1.77%	7.4%	0.60%	9.7%	0.78%	15.0%	1.17%	-0.33%	70%	54
IWM	Russell 2000	Reflation	19.1%	1.47%	20.4%	1.56%	6.6%	0.54%	7.0%	0.56%	19.1%	1.47%	-0.03%	59%	54

Sleeve ETF table

Growth / Tech Leadership

Top current-quad candidate: ARKK at 48.1% annualized, 1.48% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Goldilocks	48.1%	3.33%	29.6%	2.18%	-15.6%	-1.40%	20.9%	1.59%	48.1%	3.33%	1.48%	73%	33
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Reflation	36.4%	2.62%	59.6%	3.97%	-3.9%	-0.33%	25.4%	1.90%	36.4%	2.62%	0.55%	76%	25
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Goldilocks	37.7%	2.70%	33.0%	2.41%	-14.0%	-1.25%	25.7%	1.92%	37.7%	2.70%	0.64%	70%	27
SMH	Semiconductors	Reflation	33.8%	2.46%	45.1%	3.15%	13.6%	1.07%	30.3%	2.23%	33.8%	2.46%	0.96%	65%	54
PNQI	Internet	Goldilocks	28.9%	2.14%	21.3%	1.62%	-1.8%	-0.15%	19.0%	1.46%	28.9%	2.14%	0.64%	67%	54
IGV	Software	Goldilocks	27.9%	2.07%	20.4%	1.56%	6.6%	0.53%	13.8%	1.08%	27.9%	2.07%	0.57%	69%	54
XLK	Technology	Reflation	27.3%	2.03%	31.5%	2.31%	9.9%	0.79%	18.4%	1.42%	27.3%	2.03%	0.53%	69%	54
BUG	Cybersecurity	Goldilocks	37.6%	2.70%	32.7%	2.39%	-7.0%	-0.60%	7.1%	0.57%	37.6%	2.70%	0.24%	63%	19
GRID	Smart Grid Infrastructure	Goldilocks	20.2%	1.55%	18.3%	1.41%	13.6%	1.07%	7.4%	0.59%	20.2%	1.55%	0.05%	65%	54
CLOU	Cloud Computing	Disinflationary Slowdown	20.4%	1.56%	16.2%	1.26%	-24.0%	-2.26%	22.9%	1.73%	20.4%	1.56%	-0.44%	70%	23
ROBO	Robotics & Automation	Reflation	19.3%	1.48%	20.1%	1.54%	-5.0%	-0.43%	11.7%	0.93%	19.3%	1.48%	-0.26%	64%	39
NXTG	Next-Gen Connectivity	Reflation	15.2%	1.19%	27.5%	2.04%	5.5%	0.45%	7.8%	0.63%	15.2%	1.19%	-0.44%	67%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Cyclical Sectors

Top current-quad candidate: XLC at 31.9% annualized, 0.27% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
XLC	Communication Services	Goldilocks	31.9%	2.33%	18.8%	1.45%	-20.0%	-1.84%	17.3%	1.34%	31.9%	2.33%	0.27%	74%	27
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	Reflation	21.2%	1.61%	24.9%	1.87%	5.9%	0.48%	11.8%	0.93%	21.2%	1.61%	0.11%	70%	54
XLI	Industrials	Reflation	21.3%	1.62%	23.9%	1.80%	6.1%	0.50%	11.3%	0.90%	21.3%	1.62%	0.12%	69%	54
XHB	Homebuilders	Reflation	17.6%	1.36%	28.4%	2.10%	2.8%	0.23%	19.1%	1.47%	17.6%	1.36%	-0.14%	61%	54
XLF	Financials	Reflation	18.3%	1.41%	27.4%	2.04%	7.1%	0.57%	2.0%	0.17%	18.3%	1.41%	-0.09%	59%	54
XLB	Materials	Reflation	7.5%	0.60%	20.4%	1.56%	8.6%	0.69%	11.1%	0.88%	7.5%	0.60%	-0.90%	52%	54
XLE	Energy	Inflation/Stagflation	6.6%	0.54%	16.3%	1.27%	25.0%	1.87%	3.7%	0.31%	6.6%	0.54%	-0.96%	54%	54

Sleeve ETF table

Defensive Sectors

Top current-quad candidate: XLV at 15.4% annualized, -0.30% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
XLV	Health Care	Reflation	15.4%	1.20%	20.2%	1.54%	7.4%	0.59%	9.6%	0.77%	15.4%	1.20%	-0.30%	67%	54
XLU	Utilities	Reflation	13.2%	1.04%	22.3%	1.69%	5.1%	0.42%	6.2%	0.50%	13.2%	1.04%	-0.46%	69%	54
XLP	Consumer Staples	Reflation	9.4%	0.75%	21.9%	1.66%	0.7%	0.06%	11.1%	0.88%	9.4%	0.75%	-0.75%	61%	54
XLRE	Real Estate	Reflation	10.5%	0.84%	17.5%	1.35%	4.0%	0.33%	2.6%	0.22%	10.5%	0.84%	-1.01%	64%	33

Sleeve ETF table

Style / Market Structure

Top current-quad candidate: IWF at 24.1% annualized, 0.31% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
IWF	Russell 1000 Growth	Reflation	24.1%	1.81%	26.1%	1.95%	5.4%	0.44%	13.0%	1.03%	24.1%	1.81%	0.31%	69%	54
SPXT	S&P 500 Ex-Technology	Reflation	17.7%	1.37%	20.7%	1.58%	0.2%	0.02%	10.8%	0.86%	17.7%	1.37%	-0.48%	82%	33
IWD	Russell 1000 Value	Reflation	15.0%	1.17%	24.1%	1.81%	5.4%	0.44%	6.7%	0.54%	15.0%	1.17%	-0.33%	67%	54
VO	Mid-Cap Blend	Reflation	16.5%	1.28%	23.6%	1.78%	5.2%	0.42%	9.5%	0.76%	16.5%	1.28%	-0.22%	63%	54

Sleeve ETF table

Factors / Risk Appetite

Top current-quad candidate: QUAL at 23.1% annualized, 0.01% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
QUAL	Quality Factor	Goldilocks	23.1%	1.75%	20.8%	1.59%	3.9%	0.32%	10.7%	0.85%	23.1%	1.75%	0.01%	77%	39
MTUM	Momentum Factor	Reflation	20.4%	1.56%	31.5%	2.31%	4.0%	0.32%	12.1%	0.96%	20.4%	1.56%	-0.20%	71%	42
SPHB	High Beta	Reflation	21.9%	1.66%	22.0%	1.67%	15.2%	1.18%	8.5%	0.69%	21.9%	1.66%	0.04%	61%	49
SPLV	Low Volatility	Reflation	12.1%	0.96%	21.1%	1.60%	2.6%	0.21%	7.0%	0.57%	12.1%	0.96%	-0.67%	63%	49
SPHD	High Dividend Low Vol	Reflation	11.7%	0.93%	18.6%	1.43%	6.0%	0.48%	6.4%	0.52%	11.7%	0.93%	-0.91%	59%	44

Sleeve ETF table

Industries / Infrastructure / Housing

Top current-quad candidate: CRAK at 35.0% annualized, 0.69% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Goldilocks	35.0%	2.53%	5.9%	0.48%	19.3%	1.48%	9.5%	0.76%	35.0%	2.53%	0.69%	70%	33
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	Goldilocks	25.0%	1.88%	20.1%	1.54%	13.5%	1.06%	12.2%	0.96%	25.0%	1.88%	0.38%	69%	54
XTN	Transportation	Goldilocks	25.3%	1.90%	18.9%	1.45%	3.7%	0.31%	7.7%	0.62%	25.3%	1.90%	0.27%	63%	49
SOCL	Social Media	Goldilocks	24.7%	1.86%	10.7%	0.85%	-5.6%	-0.48%	15.9%	1.24%	24.7%	1.86%	0.19%	62%	48
ITB	Home Construction	Reflation	22.5%	1.71%	26.1%	1.95%	3.4%	0.28%	19.8%	1.51%	22.5%	1.71%	0.21%	61%	54
XTL	Telecom	Reflation	20.0%	1.53%	23.9%	1.80%	-4.9%	-0.41%	12.9%	1.02%	20.0%	1.53%	-0.10%	65%	49
JETS	Airlines	Goldilocks	20.5%	1.57%	12.2%	0.97%	-7.4%	-0.63%	4.4%	0.36%	20.5%	1.57%	-0.27%	58%	33
PAVE	Infrastructure	Reflation	24.3%	1.83%	31.7%	2.32%	0.4%	0.04%	21.1%	1.61%	24.3%	1.83%	-0.13%	52%	31
CARZ	Global Autos	Reflation	15.0%	1.17%	32.2%	2.35%	6.7%	0.54%	0.5%	0.04%	15.0%	1.17%	-0.45%	53%	49
HERO	Video Games & Esports	Disinflationary Slowdown	16.9%	1.31%	9.3%	0.74%	-6.7%	-0.58%	23.8%	1.79%	16.9%	1.31%	-1.15%	58%	19
XOP	Oil & Gas Exploration	Inflation/Stagflation	0.5%	0.04%	16.0%	1.24%	35.7%	2.58%	-6.5%	-0.56%	0.5%	0.04%	-1.46%	50%	54
OIH	Oil Services	Inflation/Stagflation	-2.1%	-0.18%	12.2%	0.96%	18.8%	1.44%	-3.4%	-0.28%	-2.1%	-0.18%	-1.68%	46%	54
XES	Oil & Gas Equipment	Inflation/Stagflation	-2.8%	-0.24%	13.2%	1.04%	22.4%	1.70%	-10.1%	-0.88%	-2.8%	-0.24%	-1.74%	44%	54
FCG	Natural Gas Producers	Inflation/Stagflation	-8.4%	-0.73%	12.1%	0.96%	29.6%	2.19%	-11.2%	-0.99%	-8.4%	-0.73%	-2.23%	44%	54

Sleeve ETF table

Thematic / Speculative Growth

Top current-quad candidate: PEJ at 18.6% annualized, -0.06% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
PEJ	Leisure & Entertainment	Reflation	18.6%	1.44%	20.3%	1.55%	5.6%	0.46%	7.3%	0.59%	18.6%	1.44%	-0.06%	65%	54
UFO	Space Economy	Reflation	15.4%	1.20%	40.1%	2.85%	-17.9%	-1.63%	18.0%	1.39%	15.4%	1.20%	-0.80%	61%	23

Sleeve ETF table

Financial / Health Care Industries

Top current-quad candidate: XBI at 40.2% annualized, 1.36% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
XBI	Biotech	Goldilocks	40.2%	2.86%	9.1%	0.73%	5.3%	0.43%	18.1%	1.40%	40.2%	2.86%	1.36%	61%	54
IBB	Biotech Large Cap	Goldilocks	29.5%	2.18%	14.0%	1.10%	1.9%	0.15%	12.6%	0.99%	29.5%	2.18%	0.68%	65%	54
IHE	Pharmaceuticals	Goldilocks	20.5%	1.56%	17.8%	1.37%	9.6%	0.76%	5.9%	0.48%	20.5%	1.56%	0.06%	69%	54
IAI	Broker-Dealers	Reflation	22.1%	1.68%	23.6%	1.78%	14.3%	1.12%	7.0%	0.57%	22.1%	1.68%	0.18%	65%	54
IYG	Financial Services	Reflation	20.6%	1.58%	26.7%	1.99%	8.1%	0.65%	1.8%	0.14%	20.6%	1.58%	0.08%	63%	54
IAK	Insurance	Reflation	17.1%	1.33%	21.5%	1.64%	14.0%	1.10%	5.7%	0.46%	17.1%	1.33%	-0.17%	67%	54
PSP	Private Equity	Goldilocks	15.7%	1.22%	15.6%	1.22%	6.8%	0.55%	3.6%	0.29%	15.7%	1.22%	-0.28%	61%	54
IHI	Medical Devices	Reflation	12.4%	0.98%	26.1%	1.95%	4.0%	0.33%	9.0%	0.72%	12.4%	0.98%	-0.52%	59%	54
KRE	Regional Banks	Reflation	12.3%	0.97%	24.5%	1.84%	15.7%	1.22%	1.3%	0.10%	12.3%	0.97%	-0.53%	56%	54
IHF	Health Care Providers	Reflation	10.3%	0.82%	30.2%	2.23%	7.0%	0.57%	7.7%	0.62%	10.3%	0.82%	-0.68%	56%	54

Sleeve ETF table

Rates / Credit

Top current-quad candidate: CWB at 14.7% annualized, -0.35% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
CWB	Convertible Bonds	Reflation	14.7%	1.15%	18.3%	1.41%	3.4%	0.28%	7.7%	0.62%	14.7%	1.15%	-0.35%	74%	54
HYG	High Yield Credit	Reflation	7.5%	0.60%	8.5%	0.69%	1.4%	0.12%	4.4%	0.36%	7.5%	0.60%	-0.90%	76%	54
BKLN	Senior Loans	Goldilocks	6.7%	0.54%	4.6%	0.38%	0.7%	0.06%	3.0%	0.25%	6.7%	0.54%	-1.08%	78%	49
PFF	Preferred Stock	Reflation	7.1%	0.58%	9.0%	0.72%	-2.4%	-0.20%	5.8%	0.47%	7.1%	0.58%	-0.92%	67%	54
LQD	Investment Grade Credit	Disinflationary Slowdown	5.0%	0.41%	4.9%	0.40%	-1.1%	-0.09%	6.8%	0.55%	5.0%	0.41%	-1.09%	69%	54
EMB	EM USD Bonds	Reflation	4.5%	0.37%	8.0%	0.65%	-0.9%	-0.08%	7.1%	0.57%	4.5%	0.37%	-1.13%	67%	54
SHY	1-3 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	1.8%	0.15%	1.1%	0.09%	0.4%	0.03%	1.9%	0.16%	1.8%	0.15%	-1.35%	69%	54
MBB	Mortgage-Backed Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.5%	0.21%	2.4%	0.20%	-0.3%	-0.02%	3.2%	0.26%	2.5%	0.21%	-1.29%	63%	54
AGG	Aggregate Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.4%	0.28%	2.6%	0.21%	-0.7%	-0.06%	4.4%	0.36%	3.4%	0.28%	-1.22%	59%	54
TLT	20+ Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	6.3%	0.51%	2.1%	0.17%	-7.7%	-0.66%	11.7%	0.93%	6.3%	0.51%	-0.99%	52%	54
IEF	7-10 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.7%	0.30%	1.1%	0.09%	-1.1%	-0.09%	6.7%	0.54%	3.7%	0.30%	-1.20%	57%	54
TIP	TIPS	Reflation	2.0%	0.16%	4.3%	0.35%	2.1%	0.18%	3.1%	0.26%	2.0%	0.16%	-1.34%	61%	54
STIP	Short-Term TIPS	Reflation	1.4%	0.11%	4.3%	0.35%	2.7%	0.22%	1.0%	0.08%	1.4%	0.11%	-1.51%	55%	49
EMLC	EM Local Currency Bonds	Reflation	-0.9%	-0.08%	6.7%	0.54%	-0.9%	-0.08%	1.2%	0.10%	-0.9%	-0.08%	-1.70%	57%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Metals / Miners

Top current-quad candidate: URNM at 36.2% annualized, 0.15% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
URNM	Uranium Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	36.2%	2.61%	-8.0%	-0.69%	—	—	138.6%	7.52%	36.2%	2.61%	0.15%	47%	19
WOOD	Timber & Forestry	Reflation	7.2%	0.58%	18.2%	1.41%	6.8%	0.55%	-1.2%	-0.10%	7.2%	0.58%	-0.92%	54%	54
GSG	Broad Commodities	Reflation	4.5%	0.37%	16.5%	1.28%	10.3%	0.82%	-16.6%	-1.50%	4.5%	0.37%	-1.13%	56%	54
HAP	Natural Resources	Reflation	1.1%	0.09%	18.7%	1.44%	11.8%	0.93%	7.5%	0.60%	1.1%	0.09%	-1.41%	54%	54
XME	Metals & Mining	Reflation	-6.0%	-0.52%	26.9%	2.01%	22.1%	1.68%	9.6%	0.77%	-6.0%	-0.52%	-2.02%	41%	54
COPX	Copper Miners	Inflation/Stagflation	-9.0%	-0.78%	21.7%	1.65%	27.4%	2.04%	21.9%	1.66%	-9.0%	-0.78%	-2.19%	42%	52
GDX	Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-20.1%	-1.85%	26.3%	1.97%	-4.5%	-0.38%	58.9%	3.94%	-20.1%	-1.85%	-3.35%	44%	54
GDXJ	Junior Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-23.5%	-2.21%	29.9%	2.20%	3.8%	0.31%	52.2%	3.56%	-23.5%	-2.21%	-3.71%	39%	54
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-24.1%	-2.27%	40.4%	2.87%	9.1%	0.73%	45.4%	3.17%	-24.1%	-2.27%	-4.11%	34%	44
SIL	Silver Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-26.6%	-2.54%	42.6%	3.00%	1.7%	0.14%	49.0%	3.38%	-26.6%	-2.54%	-3.95%	31%	52

Sleeve ETF table

International Equity

Top current-quad candidate: DXJ at 18.0% annualized, -0.11% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
DXJ	Japan Hedged Equity	Reflation	18.0%	1.39%	22.7%	1.72%	12.6%	0.99%	3.9%	0.32%	18.0%	1.39%	-0.11%	63%	54
FXI	China Large Cap	Goldilocks	9.6%	0.77%	7.3%	0.59%	6.5%	0.52%	-5.4%	-0.46%	9.6%	0.77%	-0.73%	59%	54
EWU	United Kingdom	Reflation	7.3%	0.59%	12.9%	1.02%	10.8%	0.86%	1.3%	0.11%	7.3%	0.59%	-0.91%	59%	54
EZU	Eurozone	Reflation	7.1%	0.57%	15.2%	1.19%	7.6%	0.61%	6.5%	0.53%	7.1%	0.57%	-0.93%	57%	54
INDA	India	Inflation/Stagflation	5.5%	0.45%	12.0%	0.95%	15.0%	1.17%	-2.3%	-0.20%	5.5%	0.45%	-1.17%	63%	46
EEM	Emerging Markets	Reflation	3.8%	0.31%	19.6%	1.51%	4.1%	0.34%	0.3%	0.03%	3.8%	0.31%	-1.19%	56%	54
EWA	Australia	Reflation	-1.7%	-0.14%	17.1%	1.33%	9.7%	0.78%	10.7%	0.85%	-1.7%	-0.14%	-1.64%	54%	54
EWZ	Brazil	Reflation	-2.3%	-0.20%	17.7%	1.37%	9.5%	0.76%	-0.6%	-0.05%	-2.3%	-0.20%	-1.70%	52%	54

Sleeve ETF table

Commodities / Crypto / USD

Top current-quad candidate: BTC-USD at 225.5% annualized, 8.48% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Goldilocks	225.5%	10.34%	142.5%	7.66%	32.0%	2.34%	30.3%	2.23%	225.5%	10.34%	8.48%	65%	34
PALL	Palladium	Inflation/Stagflation	17.4%	1.35%	2.7%	0.22%	29.9%	2.20%	-1.4%	-0.12%	17.4%	1.35%	-0.15%	61%	54
USO	Oil	Reflation	15.4%	1.20%	27.5%	2.05%	10.3%	0.82%	-32.3%	-3.19%	15.4%	1.20%	-0.30%	50%	54
UUP	US Dollar	Goldilocks	4.8%	0.39%	2.5%	0.21%	-0.8%	-0.07%	3.2%	0.26%	4.8%	0.39%	-1.11%	56%	54
PLTM	Platinum	Disinflationary Slowdown	8.8%	0.70%	-2.1%	-0.17%	-8.4%	-0.73%	37.5%	2.69%	8.8%	0.70%	-1.36%	56%	27
URA	Uranium	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.1%	0.17%	-3.8%	-0.32%	-7.1%	-0.61%	21.6%	1.64%	2.1%	0.17%	-1.46%	49%	49
GLD	Gold	Disinflationary Slowdown	-0.1%	-0.01%	8.1%	0.65%	7.0%	0.57%	24.8%	1.86%	-0.1%	-0.01%	-1.51%	48%	54
DBC	Broad Commodities	Reflation	0.5%	0.04%	16.5%	1.28%	13.4%	1.05%	-10.7%	-0.94%	0.5%	0.04%	-1.46%	44%	54
DBA	Agriculture	Reflation	0.1%	0.00%	9.7%	0.78%	7.5%	0.60%	-6.8%	-0.58%	0.1%	0.00%	-1.50%	43%	54
DBB	Base Metals	Reflation	-3.5%	-0.30%	14.8%	1.16%	4.7%	0.38%	2.3%	0.19%	-3.5%	-0.30%	-1.80%	46%	54
CPER	Copper	Disinflationary Slowdown	-5.5%	-0.47%	10.4%	0.83%	5.4%	0.44%	10.9%	0.86%	-5.5%	-0.47%	-2.14%	46%	48
SLV	Silver	Disinflationary Slowdown	-9.9%	-0.86%	25.7%	1.92%	8.1%	0.65%	34.2%	2.48%	-9.9%	-0.86%	-2.36%	39%	54

Master ETF Regime Matrix

Full ETF universe in one table. Use this after the sleeve tables when you need to compare every ticker across all regimes.

Portfolio translation: this table is best for cross-checking whether an ETF is only a current-regime trade or has broader regime durability. Do not read a high annualized number without checking the average monthly return, hit rate, and observation count.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation Ann	Inflation Avg Mo	Disinflation Ann	Disinflation Avg Mo	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Goldilocks	225.5%	10.34%	142.5%	7.66%	32.0%	2.34%	30.3%	2.23%	225.5%	10.34%	8.48%	65%	34
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Goldilocks	48.1%	3.33%	29.6%	2.18%	-15.6%	-1.40%	20.9%	1.59%	48.1%	3.33%	1.48%	73%	33
XBI	Biotech	Goldilocks	40.2%	2.86%	9.1%	0.73%	5.3%	0.43%	18.1%	1.40%	40.2%	2.86%	1.36%	61%	54
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Reflation	36.4%	2.62%	59.6%	3.97%	-3.9%	-0.33%	25.4%	1.90%	36.4%	2.62%	0.55%	76%	25
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Goldilocks	37.7%	2.70%	33.0%	2.41%	-14.0%	-1.25%	25.7%	1.92%	37.7%	2.70%	0.64%	70%	27
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Goldilocks	35.0%	2.53%	5.9%	0.48%	19.3%	1.48%	9.5%	0.76%	35.0%	2.53%	0.69%	70%	33
SMH	Semiconductors	Reflation	33.8%	2.46%	45.1%	3.15%	13.6%	1.07%	30.3%	2.23%	33.8%	2.46%	0.96%	65%	54
XLC	Communication Services	Goldilocks	31.9%	2.33%	18.8%	1.45%	-20.0%	-1.84%	17.3%	1.34%	31.9%	2.33%	0.27%	74%	27
PNQI	Internet	Goldilocks	28.9%	2.14%	21.3%	1.62%	-1.8%	-0.15%	19.0%	1.46%	28.9%	2.14%	0.64%	67%	54
IGV	Software	Goldilocks	27.9%	2.07%	20.4%	1.56%	6.6%	0.53%	13.8%	1.08%	27.9%	2.07%	0.57%	69%	54
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Reflation	27.8%	2.07%	30.8%	2.26%	7.3%	0.59%	16.6%	1.29%	27.8%	2.07%	0.57%	69%	54
IBB	Biotech Large Cap	Goldilocks	29.5%	2.18%	14.0%	1.10%	1.9%	0.15%	12.6%	0.99%	29.5%	2.18%	0.68%	65%	54
XLK	Technology	Reflation	27.3%	2.03%	31.5%	2.31%	9.9%	0.79%	18.4%	1.42%	27.3%	2.03%	0.53%	69%	54
OEF	S&P 100	Reflation	22.0%	1.67%	26.1%	1.95%	4.4%	0.36%	9.8%	0.78%	22.0%	1.67%	0.17%	76%	54
BUG	Cybersecurity	Goldilocks	37.6%	2.70%	32.7%	2.39%	-7.0%	-0.60%	7.1%	0.57%	37.6%	2.70%	0.24%	63%	19
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	Goldilocks	25.0%	1.88%	20.1%	1.54%	13.5%	1.06%	12.2%	0.96%	25.0%	1.88%	0.38%	69%	54
XLG	S&P Top 50	Reflation	23.0%	1.74%	24.9%	1.87%	4.3%	0.35%	10.1%	0.80%	23.0%	1.74%	0.24%	72%	54
QUAL	Quality Factor	Goldilocks	23.1%	1.75%	20.8%	1.59%	3.9%	0.32%	10.7%	0.85%	23.1%	1.75%	0.01%	77%	39
IWF	Russell 1000 Growth	Reflation	24.1%	1.81%	26.1%	1.95%	5.4%	0.44%	13.0%	1.03%	24.1%	1.81%	0.31%	69%	54
SPY	S&P 500	Reflation	19.6%	1.50%	25.4%	1.90%	5.7%	0.46%	10.2%	0.81%	19.6%	1.50%	0.00%	76%	54
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	Reflation	21.2%	1.61%	24.9%	1.87%	5.9%	0.48%	11.8%	0.93%	21.2%	1.61%	0.11%	70%	54
XTN	Transportation	Goldilocks	25.3%	1.90%	18.9%	1.45%	3.7%	0.31%	7.7%	0.62%	25.3%	1.90%	0.27%	63%	49
XLI	Industrials	Reflation	21.3%	1.62%	23.9%	1.80%	6.1%	0.50%	11.3%	0.90%	21.3%	1.62%	0.12%	69%	54
SPXT	S&P 500 Ex-Technology	Reflation	17.7%	1.37%	20.7%	1.58%	0.2%	0.02%	10.8%	0.86%	17.7%	1.37%	-0.48%	82%	33
IHE	Pharmaceuticals	Goldilocks	20.5%	1.56%	17.8%	1.37%	9.6%	0.76%	5.9%	0.48%	20.5%	1.56%	0.06%	69%	54
IAI	Broker-Dealers	Reflation	22.1%	1.68%	23.6%	1.78%	14.3%	1.12%	7.0%	0.57%	22.1%	1.68%	0.18%	65%	54
SOCL	Social Media	Goldilocks	24.7%	1.86%	10.7%	0.85%	-5.6%	-0.48%	15.9%	1.24%	24.7%	1.86%	0.19%	62%	48
MTUM	Momentum Factor	Reflation	20.4%	1.56%	31.5%	2.31%	4.0%	0.32%	12.1%	0.96%	20.4%	1.56%	-0.20%	71%	42
ITB	Home Construction	Reflation	22.5%	1.71%	26.1%	1.95%	3.4%	0.28%	19.8%	1.51%	22.5%	1.71%	0.21%	61%	54
GRID	Smart Grid Infrastructure	Goldilocks	20.2%	1.55%	18.3%	1.41%	13.6%	1.07%	7.4%	0.59%	20.2%	1.55%	0.05%	65%	54
IYG	Financial Services	Reflation	20.6%	1.58%	26.7%	1.99%	8.1%	0.65%	1.8%	0.14%	20.6%	1.58%	0.08%	63%	54
XTL	Telecom	Reflation	20.0%	1.53%	23.9%	1.80%	-4.9%	-0.41%	12.9%	1.02%	20.0%	1.53%	-0.10%	65%	49
SPHB	High Beta	Reflation	21.9%	1.66%	22.0%	1.67%	15.2%	1.18%	8.5%	0.69%	21.9%	1.66%	0.04%	61%	49
CWB	Convertible Bonds	Reflation	14.7%	1.15%	18.3%	1.41%	3.4%	0.28%	7.7%	0.62%	14.7%	1.15%	-0.35%	74%	54
PEJ	Leisure & Entertainment	Reflation	18.6%	1.44%	20.3%	1.55%	5.6%	0.46%	7.3%	0.59%	18.6%	1.44%	-0.06%	65%	54
URNM	Uranium Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	36.2%	2.61%	-8.0%	-0.69%	—	—	138.6%	7.52%	36.2%	2.61%	0.15%	47%	19
IAK	Insurance	Reflation	17.1%	1.33%	21.5%	1.64%	14.0%	1.10%	5.7%	0.46%	17.1%	1.33%	-0.17%	67%	54
CLOU	Cloud Computing	Disinflationary Slowdown	20.4%	1.56%	16.2%	1.26%	-24.0%	-2.26%	22.9%	1.73%	20.4%	1.56%	-0.44%	70%	23
RSP	S&P 500 Equal Weight	Reflation	15.0%	1.17%	23.4%	1.77%	7.4%	0.60%	9.7%	0.78%	15.0%	1.17%	-0.33%	70%	54
DXJ	Japan Hedged Equity	Reflation	18.0%	1.39%	22.7%	1.72%	12.6%	0.99%	3.9%	0.32%	18.0%	1.39%	-0.11%	63%	54
ROBO	Robotics & Automation	Reflation	19.3%	1.48%	20.1%	1.54%	-5.0%	-0.43%	11.7%	0.93%	19.3%	1.48%	-0.26%	64%	39
IWM	Russell 2000	Reflation	19.1%	1.47%	20.4%	1.56%	6.6%	0.54%	7.0%	0.56%	19.1%	1.47%	-0.03%	59%	54
XLV	Health Care	Reflation	15.4%	1.20%	20.2%	1.54%	7.4%	0.59%	9.6%	0.77%	15.4%	1.20%	-0.30%	67%	54
XHB	Homebuilders	Reflation	17.6%	1.36%	28.4%	2.10%	2.8%	0.23%	19.1%	1.47%	17.6%	1.36%	-0.14%	61%	54
IWD	Russell 1000 Value	Reflation	15.0%	1.17%	24.1%	1.81%	5.4%	0.44%	6.7%	0.54%	15.0%	1.17%	-0.33%	67%	54
XLF	Financials	Reflation	18.3%	1.41%	27.4%	2.04%	7.1%	0.57%	2.0%	0.17%	18.3%	1.41%	-0.09%	59%	54
VO	Mid-Cap Blend	Reflation	16.5%	1.28%	23.6%	1.78%	5.2%	0.42%	9.5%	0.76%	16.5%	1.28%	-0.22%	63%	54
PALL	Palladium	Inflation/Stagflation	17.4%	1.35%	2.7%	0.22%	29.9%	2.20%	-1.4%	-0.12%	17.4%	1.35%	-0.15%	61%	54
NXTG	Next-Gen Connectivity	Reflation	15.2%	1.19%	27.5%	2.04%	5.5%	0.45%	7.8%	0.63%	15.2%	1.19%	-0.44%	67%	49
XLU	Utilities	Reflation	13.2%	1.04%	22.3%	1.69%	5.1%	0.42%	6.2%	0.50%	13.2%	1.04%	-0.46%	69%	54
PSP	Private Equity	Goldilocks	15.7%	1.22%	15.6%	1.22%	6.8%	0.55%	3.6%	0.29%	15.7%	1.22%	-0.28%	61%	54
JETS	Airlines	Goldilocks	20.5%	1.57%	12.2%	0.97%	-7.4%	-0.63%	4.4%	0.36%	20.5%	1.57%	-0.27%	58%	33
PAVE	Infrastructure	Reflation	24.3%	1.83%	31.7%	2.32%	0.4%	0.04%	21.1%	1.61%	24.3%	1.83%	-0.13%	52%	31
HYG	High Yield Credit	Reflation	7.5%	0.60%	8.5%	0.69%	1.4%	0.12%	4.4%	0.36%	7.5%	0.60%	-0.90%	76%	54
BKLN	Senior Loans	Goldilocks	6.7%	0.54%	4.6%	0.38%	0.7%	0.06%	3.0%	0.25%	6.7%	0.54%	-1.08%	78%	49
SPLV	Low Volatility	Reflation	12.1%	0.96%	21.1%	1.60%	2.6%	0.21%	7.0%	0.57%	12.1%	0.96%	-0.67%	63%	49
IHI	Medical Devices	Reflation	12.4%	0.98%	26.1%	1.95%	4.0%	0.33%	9.0%	0.72%	12.4%	0.98%	-0.52%	59%	54
UFO	Space Economy	Reflation	15.4%	1.20%	40.1%	2.85%	-17.9%	-1.63%	18.0%	1.39%	15.4%	1.20%	-0.80%	61%	23
USO	Oil	Reflation	15.4%	1.20%	27.5%	2.05%	10.3%	0.82%	-32.3%	-3.19%	15.4%	1.20%	-0.30%	50%	54
CARZ	Global Autos	Reflation	15.0%	1.17%	32.2%	2.35%	6.7%	0.54%	0.5%	0.04%	15.0%	1.17%	-0.45%	53%	49
KRE	Regional Banks	Reflation	12.3%	0.97%	24.5%	1.84%	15.7%	1.22%	1.3%	0.10%	12.3%	0.97%	-0.53%	56%	54
PFF	Preferred Stock	Reflation	7.1%	0.58%	9.0%	0.72%	-2.4%	-0.20%	5.8%	0.47%	7.1%	0.58%	-0.92%	67%	54
XLP	Consumer Staples	Reflation	9.4%	0.75%	21.9%	1.66%	0.7%	0.06%	11.1%	0.88%	9.4%	0.75%	-0.75%	61%	54
FXI	China Large Cap	Goldilocks	9.6%	0.77%	7.3%	0.59%	6.5%	0.52%	-5.4%	-0.46%	9.6%	0.77%	-0.73%	59%	54
XLRE	Real Estate	Reflation	10.5%	0.84%	17.5%	1.35%	4.0%	0.33%	2.6%	0.22%	10.5%	0.84%	-1.01%	64%	33
LQD	Investment Grade Credit	Disinflationary Slowdown	5.0%	0.41%	4.9%	0.40%	-1.1%	-0.09%	6.8%	0.55%	5.0%	0.41%	-1.09%	69%	54
IHF	Health Care Providers	Reflation	10.3%	0.82%	30.2%	2.23%	7.0%	0.57%	7.7%	0.62%	10.3%	0.82%	-0.68%	56%	54
SPHD	High Dividend Low Vol	Reflation	11.7%	0.93%	18.6%	1.43%	6.0%	0.48%	6.4%	0.52%	11.7%	0.93%	-0.91%	59%	44
HERO	Video Games & Esports	Disinflationary Slowdown	16.9%	1.31%	9.3%	0.74%	-6.7%	-0.58%	23.8%	1.79%	16.9%	1.31%	-1.15%	58%	19
EMB	EM USD Bonds	Reflation	4.5%	0.37%	8.0%	0.65%	-0.9%	-0.08%	7.1%	0.57%	4.5%	0.37%	-1.13%	67%	54
EWU	United Kingdom	Reflation	7.3%	0.59%	12.9%	1.02%	10.8%	0.86%	1.3%	0.11%	7.3%	0.59%	-0.91%	59%	54
EZU	Eurozone	Reflation	7.1%	0.57%	15.2%	1.19%	7.6%	0.61%	6.5%	0.53%	7.1%	0.57%	-0.93%	57%	54
INDA	India	Inflation/Stagflation	5.5%	0.45%	12.0%	0.95%	15.0%	1.17%	-2.3%	-0.20%	5.5%	0.45%	-1.17%	63%	46
SHY	1-3 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	1.8%	0.15%	1.1%	0.09%	0.4%	0.03%	1.9%	0.16%	1.8%	0.15%	-1.35%	69%	54
WOOD	Timber & Forestry	Reflation	7.2%	0.58%	18.2%	1.41%	6.8%	0.55%	-1.2%	-0.10%	7.2%	0.58%	-0.92%	54%	54
XLB	Materials	Reflation	7.5%	0.60%	20.4%	1.56%	8.6%	0.69%	11.1%	0.88%	7.5%	0.60%	-0.90%	52%	54
XLE	Energy	Inflation/Stagflation	6.6%	0.54%	16.3%	1.27%	25.0%	1.87%	3.7%	0.31%	6.6%	0.54%	-0.96%	54%	54
MBB	Mortgage-Backed Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.5%	0.21%	2.4%	0.20%	-0.3%	-0.02%	3.2%	0.26%	2.5%	0.21%	-1.29%	63%	54
AGG	Aggregate Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.4%	0.28%	2.6%	0.21%	-0.7%	-0.06%	4.4%	0.36%	3.4%	0.28%	-1.22%	59%	54
UUP	US Dollar	Goldilocks	4.8%	0.39%	2.5%	0.21%	-0.8%	-0.07%	3.2%	0.26%	4.8%	0.39%	-1.11%	56%	54
TLT	20+ Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	6.3%	0.51%	2.1%	0.17%	-7.7%	-0.66%	11.7%	0.93%	6.3%	0.51%	-0.99%	52%	54
GSG	Broad Commodities	Reflation	4.5%	0.37%	16.5%	1.28%	10.3%	0.82%	-16.6%	-1.50%	4.5%	0.37%	-1.13%	56%	54
IEF	7-10 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.7%	0.30%	1.1%	0.09%	-1.1%	-0.09%	6.7%	0.54%	3.7%	0.30%	-1.20%	57%	54
TIP	TIPS	Reflation	2.0%	0.16%	4.3%	0.35%	2.1%	0.18%	3.1%	0.26%	2.0%	0.16%	-1.34%	61%	54
PLTM	Platinum	Disinflationary Slowdown	8.8%	0.70%	-2.1%	-0.17%	-8.4%	-0.73%	37.5%	2.69%	8.8%	0.70%	-1.36%	56%	27
EEM	Emerging Markets	Reflation	3.8%	0.31%	19.6%	1.51%	4.1%	0.34%	0.3%	0.03%	3.8%	0.31%	-1.19%	56%	54
HAP	Natural Resources	Reflation	1.1%	0.09%	18.7%	1.44%	11.8%	0.93%	7.5%	0.60%	1.1%	0.09%	-1.41%	54%	54
STIP	Short-Term TIPS	Reflation	1.4%	0.11%	4.3%	0.35%	2.7%	0.22%	1.0%	0.08%	1.4%	0.11%	-1.51%	55%	49
EMLC	EM Local Currency Bonds	Reflation	-0.9%	-0.08%	6.7%	0.54%	-0.9%	-0.08%	1.2%	0.10%	-0.9%	-0.08%	-1.70%	57%	49
URA	Uranium	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.1%	0.17%	-3.8%	-0.32%	-7.1%	-0.61%	21.6%	1.64%	2.1%	0.17%	-1.46%	49%	49
XOP	Oil & Gas Exploration	Inflation/Stagflation	0.5%	0.04%	16.0%	1.24%	35.7%	2.58%	-6.5%	-0.56%	0.5%	0.04%	-1.46%	50%	54
EWA	Australia	Reflation	-1.7%	-0.14%	17.1%	1.33%	9.7%	0.78%	10.7%	0.85%	-1.7%	-0.14%	-1.64%	54%	54
GLD	Gold	Disinflationary Slowdown	-0.1%	-0.01%	8.1%	0.65%	7.0%	0.57%	24.8%	1.86%	-0.1%	-0.01%	-1.51%	48%	54
EWZ	Brazil	Reflation	-2.3%	-0.20%	17.7%	1.37%	9.5%	0.76%	-0.6%	-0.05%	-2.3%	-0.20%	-1.70%	52%	54
DBC	Broad Commodities	Reflation	0.5%	0.04%	16.5%	1.28%	13.4%	1.05%	-10.7%	-0.94%	0.5%	0.04%	-1.46%	44%	54
DBA	Agriculture	Reflation	0.1%	0.00%	9.7%	0.78%	7.5%	0.60%	-6.8%	-0.58%	0.1%	0.00%	-1.50%	43%	54
OIH	Oil Services	Inflation/Stagflation	-2.1%	-0.18%	12.2%	0.96%	18.8%	1.44%	-3.4%	-0.28%	-2.1%	-0.18%	-1.68%	46%	54
DBB	Base Metals	Reflation	-3.5%	-0.30%	14.8%	1.16%	4.7%	0.38%	2.3%	0.19%	-3.5%	-0.30%	-1.80%	46%	54
XES	Oil & Gas Equipment	Inflation/Stagflation	-2.8%	-0.24%	13.2%	1.04%	22.4%	1.70%	-10.1%	-0.88%	-2.8%	-0.24%	-1.74%	44%	54
CPER	Copper	Disinflationary Slowdown	-5.5%	-0.47%	10.4%	0.83%	5.4%	0.44%	10.9%	0.86%	-5.5%	-0.47%	-2.14%	46%	48
XME	Metals & Mining	Reflation	-6.0%	-0.52%	26.9%	2.01%	22.1%	1.68%	9.6%	0.77%	-6.0%	-0.52%	-2.02%	41%	54
FCG	Natural Gas Producers	Inflation/Stagflation	-8.4%	-0.73%	12.1%	0.96%	29.6%	2.19%	-11.2%	-0.99%	-8.4%	-0.73%	-2.23%	44%	54
COPX	Copper Miners	Inflation/Stagflation	-9.0%	-0.78%	21.7%	1.65%	27.4%	2.04%	21.9%	1.66%	-9.0%	-0.78%	-2.19%	42%	52
SLV	Silver	Disinflationary Slowdown	-9.9%	-0.86%	25.7%	1.92%	8.1%	0.65%	34.2%	2.48%	-9.9%	-0.86%	-2.36%	39%	54
GDX	Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-20.1%	-1.85%	26.3%	1.97%	-4.5%	-0.38%	58.9%	3.94%	-20.1%	-1.85%	-3.35%	44%	54
GDXJ	Junior Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-23.5%	-2.21%	29.9%	2.20%	3.8%	0.31%	52.2%	3.56%	-23.5%	-2.21%	-3.71%	39%	54
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-24.1%	-2.27%	40.4%	2.87%	9.1%	0.73%	45.4%	3.17%	-24.1%	-2.27%	-4.11%	34%	44
SIL	Silver Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-26.6%	-2.54%	42.6%	3.00%	1.7%	0.14%	49.0%	3.38%	-26.6%	-2.54%	-3.95%	31%	52

Audit Tables

These are traceability tables. They stay collapsed by default so the primary read is not buried under raw audit detail.

Monthly Quad Audit

The last 24 monthly labels with the model inputs behind each point.

Month	Quad	Growth Impulse	Inflation Impulse	Growth Level	Inflation Pressure	Read
07/2026	Goldilocks	+2.20	-2.43	56.2	47.7	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
06/2026	Reflation	+0.81	+8.63	53.7	47.3	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
05/2026	Reflation	+0.39	+11.02	52.2	60.0	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
04/2026	Reflation	+0.39	+7.25	52.0	63.6	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
03/2026	Reflation	+0.46	+2.22	51.6	51.9	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
02/2026	Reflation	+0.06	+2.10	51.8	46.9	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
01/2026	Disinflationary Slowdown	-0.38	-0.84	52.0	46.2	Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak
12/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	-0.79	-3.43	50.9	49.3	Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak
11/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	-0.52	-5.82	51.4	45.1	Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak
10/2025	Goldilocks	+0.04	-1.97	51.8	43.9	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
09/2025	Goldilocks	+1.27	-0.56	51.3	47.1	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
08/2025	Reflation	+0.96	+1.25	52.3	52.2	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
07/2025	Goldilocks	+0.60	-2.14	52.9	49.4	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
06/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	-1.60	-3.35	50.9	52.1	Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak
05/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	-2.01	-2.56	51.6	47.6	Growth impulse falling, inflation pressure falling, growth level not yet weak
04/2025	Inflation/Stagflation	-2.34	+0.49	50.2	50.7	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising
03/2025	Inflation/Stagflation	-0.31	+3.77	51.4	51.6	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising
02/2025	Reflation	+0.57	+2.51	51.9	53.2	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
01/2025	Reflation	+1.29	+1.80	54.1	55.6	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
12/2024	Reflation	+0.53	+1.54	53.1	48.8	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
11/2024	Reflation	+1.39	+1.66	53.3	49.7	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
10/2024	Goldilocks	+2.18	-0.23	51.9	50.6	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
09/2024	Goldilocks	+3.03	-4.47	52.2	49.7	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
08/2024	Goldilocks	+1.75	-6.29	52.5	48.3	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling

Full Group Backtest Table

This is the full sleeve-level audit by regime. It is included so the reader can trace the summarized current-regime ranking back to every quad, not just the current one.

Quad	Group	ETF Count	Obs	Avg Return	Annualized Return	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Rank Score
Reflation	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	47	1.75%	23.2%	-0.06%	81%	-5.43%	1.18
Disinflationary Slowdown	Metals / Miners	10	48	1.88%	25.0%	1.07%	56%	-19.57%	1.16
Reflation	Style / Market Structure	6	53	1.86%	24.7%	-0.05%	77%	-5.36%	1.12
Reflation	Core Index Beta	6	53	1.89%	25.1%	-0.02%	75%	-4.96%	1.10
Goldilocks	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	54	1.86%	24.8%	0.36%	67%	-9.68%	1.06
Goldilocks	Core Index Beta	6	54	1.60%	21.1%	0.10%	74%	-7.87%	1.06
Goldilocks	Style / Market Structure	6	54	1.49%	19.5%	-0.01%	74%	-7.72%	0.97
Reflation	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	53	2.04%	27.5%	0.14%	64%	-6.16%	0.94
Reflation	Cyclical Sectors	7	53	1.76%	23.3%	-0.14%	70%	-6.99%	0.86
Reflation	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	53	1.58%	20.8%	-0.32%	74%	-7.16%	0.83
Reflation	Defensive Sectors	4	53	1.58%	20.7%	-0.32%	74%	-6.92%	0.82
Goldilocks	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	54	1.52%	19.8%	0.02%	67%	-8.72%	0.81
Inflation/Stagflation	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	43	0.90%	11.3%	0.44%	63%	-13.95%	0.76
Reflation	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	53	1.67%	22.0%	-0.23%	68%	-6.90%	0.75
Goldilocks	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	49	1.28%	16.5%	-0.34%	71%	-7.36%	0.69
Goldilocks	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	54	1.37%	17.7%	-0.13%	65%	-11.04%	0.65
Reflation	Metals / Miners	10	53	1.88%	25.0%	-0.02%	57%	-15.86%	0.62
Goldilocks	Cyclical Sectors	7	54	1.25%	16.0%	-0.25%	67%	-9.36%	0.60
Disinflationary Slowdown	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	48	1.19%	15.2%	0.38%	54%	-11.33%	0.59
Inflation/Stagflation	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	43	0.74%	9.3%	0.28%	60%	-10.30%	0.59
Inflation/Stagflation	International Equity	8	43	0.74%	9.2%	0.28%	60%	-7.06%	0.58
Reflation	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	53	1.49%	19.4%	-0.42%	66%	-7.78%	0.56
Goldilocks	Defensive Sectors	4	54	1.00%	12.7%	-0.50%	70%	-5.55%	0.51
Inflation/Stagflation	Cyclical Sectors	7	43	0.62%	7.7%	0.16%	60%	-11.67%	0.50
Disinflationary Slowdown	Style / Market Structure	6	48	0.78%	9.8%	-0.03%	62%	-14.68%	0.49
Inflation/Stagflation	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	43	0.69%	8.6%	0.23%	58%	-9.72%	0.49
Inflation/Stagflation	Metals / Miners	10	43	0.85%	10.7%	0.39%	51%	-15.42%	0.44
Disinflationary Slowdown	Cyclical Sectors	7	48	0.77%	9.7%	-0.04%	60%	-20.77%	0.44
Disinflationary Slowdown	Core Index Beta	6	48	0.84%	10.5%	0.03%	58%	-13.15%	0.43
Disinflationary Slowdown	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	46	0.71%	8.9%	-0.04%	61%	-16.67%	0.43
Disinflationary Slowdown	Defensive Sectors	4	48	0.66%	8.2%	-0.15%	60%	-8.78%	0.35
Reflation	International Equity	8	53	1.22%	15.7%	-0.68%	64%	-6.69%	0.32
Inflation/Stagflation	Core Index Beta	6	43	0.48%	5.9%	0.02%	56%	-9.91%	0.28
Inflation/Stagflation	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	43	0.69%	8.6%	0.23%	49%	-9.88%	0.26
Disinflationary Slowdown	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	48	0.58%	7.2%	-0.23%	58%	-15.85%	0.24
Inflation/Stagflation	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	43	0.43%	5.2%	-0.03%	56%	-13.35%	0.24
Reflation	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	53	1.27%	16.3%	-0.64%	58%	-11.18%	0.21
Inflation/Stagflation	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	40	0.42%	5.2%	0.07%	52%	-8.74%	0.20
Disinflationary Slowdown	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	48	0.55%	6.8%	-0.26%	56%	-30.82%	0.16
Disinflationary Slowdown	Rates / Credit	14	48	0.40%	4.9%	-0.41%	60%	-4.92%	0.16
Inflation/Stagflation	Style / Market Structure	6	43	0.40%	4.9%	-0.06%	53%	-8.55%	0.16
Disinflationary Slowdown	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	48	0.49%	6.0%	-0.32%	56%	-15.88%	0.12
Goldilocks	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	54	0.91%	11.4%	-0.59%	54%	-12.59%	0.02
Goldilocks	Rates / Credit	14	54	0.40%	4.9%	-1.10%	69%	-2.45%	0.01
Inflation/Stagflation	Defensive Sectors	4	43	0.40%	4.9%	-0.06%	47%	-7.72%	-0.02
Goldilocks	International Equity	8	54	0.47%	5.8%	-1.03%	63%	-11.86%	-0.07
Inflation/Stagflation	Rates / Credit	14	43	-0.03%	-0.3%	-0.49%	56%	-4.41%	-0.11
Reflation	Rates / Credit	14	53	0.44%	5.4%	-1.46%	70%	-2.38%	-0.12
Goldilocks	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	54	0.66%	8.2%	-0.84%	54%	-9.68%	-0.16
Disinflationary Slowdown	International Equity	8	48	0.14%	1.7%	-0.67%	52%	-19.68%	-0.25
Disinflationary Slowdown	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	48	0.29%	3.6%	-0.52%	46%	-29.47%	-0.29
Goldilocks	Metals / Miners	10	54	-0.89%	-10.2%	-2.39%	44%	-14.66%	-1.56

Portfolio Translation For Current Quad

This combines historical quad behavior with economic intuition. Use it as a shortlist, then confirm with the CIO Missive, Strategist command center, options, VAMS, and ticker-level tape.

Layer	Name	Historical Read	PM Use
Group	Growth / Tech Leadership	Avg 1.86%, excess 0.36%, hit 67%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Core Index Beta	Avg 1.60%, excess 0.10%, hit 74%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Style / Market Structure	Avg 1.49%, excess -0.01%, hit 74%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Financial / Health Care Industries	Avg 1.52%, excess 0.02%, hit 67%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Factors / Risk Appetite	Avg 1.28%, excess -0.34%, hit 71%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Thematic / Speculative Growth	Avg 1.37%, excess -0.13%, hit 65%	Use only if Strategist/ticker evidence confirms.
Group	Cyclical Sectors	Avg 1.25%, excess -0.25%, hit 67%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Defensive Sectors	Avg 1.00%, excess -0.50%, hit 70%	Use only if Strategist/ticker evidence confirms.
ETF	BTC-USD	Avg 10.34%, excess 8.48%, hit 65%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	ARKK	Avg 3.33%, excess 1.48%, hit 73%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	XBI	Avg 2.86%, excess 1.36%, hit 61%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	QTUM	Avg 2.62%, excess 0.55%, hit 76%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	AIQ	Avg 2.70%, excess 0.64%, hit 70%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	CRAK	Avg 2.53%, excess 0.69%, hit 70%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	SMH	Avg 2.46%, excess 0.96%, hit 65%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	XLC	Avg 2.33%, excess 0.27%, hit 74%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	PNQI	Avg 2.14%, excess 0.64%, hit 67%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	IGV	Avg 2.07%, excess 0.57%, hit 69%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	QQQ	Avg 2.07%, excess 0.57%, hit 69%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	IBB	Avg 2.18%, excess 0.68%, hit 65%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.

Methodology

Regime definition: Growth impulse is the 3-month change in smoothed Macro Lens Growth Permission. Inflation impulse is the 3-month change in smoothed Inflation Pressure, where Inflation Pressure equals 100 minus Inflation Permission. Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation/Stagflation, and Disinflationary Slowdown are assigned from the signs of those two impulses.

Relief-rally adjustment: lower-left months are flagged as V-shaped rallies when SPY is up at least 6% after a prior-month SPY decline of at least 3%. The full lower-left sample remains shown, and the ex-rebound column removes those months to show the cleaner slowdown/stress read.

Backtest definition: ETF performance is same-month return while the model is in the active regime. This says what historically worked during the same macro regime; it is not a standalone trade signal.

Observation rule: each regime uses the selected minimum observation count. Read any high-return table with the observation count, hit rate, worst month, and bootstrap range before treating it as a portfolio signal.

Bootstrap definition: confidence ranges resample the same-month return observations inside each regime and estimate uncertainty around the average monthly return. The realized 5th-95th percentile range is shown separately as the historical volatility band.

Annualized versus average month: annualized return scales the average monthly return into a yearly pace. Average month is the raw observation and should be treated as the cleaner statistic when sample size is limited.

Data caveat: This uses the current Strategist ETF universe and available price history, so newer ETFs have shorter histories. Minimum observation filters reduce short-history distortion, but survivorship bias still exists.

Refresh workflow: run the source macro decks and Macro Lens first, then this file. The deliverable reads the same Macro Lens model sources and the Strategist ETF universe; it does not trigger CIO Missive ticker exports.