CIO Macro Quad Regime Backtest

Macro Lens growth and inflation impulses are mapped into four simple directions, then tested against independent GDP, inflation, and same-month Strategist ETF outcomes. A separate macro-only downside filter identifies the subset of disinflationary slowdowns where multiple labor, activity, and financial-condition signals confirm contraction risk. Growth is an independent balanced activity composite; inflation is assessed only through Inflation Pressure.

Current Regime GoldilocksDownside Filter Not applicableBayesian Confidence 64.7%Growth Impulse +1.19Inflation Impulse -5.94Generated 09/25/2026 19:12

Current Regime

QuadGoldilocksGrowth rising, inflation pressure falling

Downside FilterInactive0 of 5 macro stress flags

Growth Level55.1Balanced activity composite

Inflation Pressure50.2100 minus Inflation Permission

Best backdrop for balanced risk when the Strategist deck confirms breadth, options, and momentum.

Bayesian Confidence

Most LikelyGoldilocks

Posterior64.7%

Runner-UpDisinflationary Slowdown

Margin+34.0 pp

The posterior starts from historical quad frequencies and updates using current growth impulse, inflation impulse, growth level, and inflation-pressure level. It is a confidence layer, not a second regime definition.

Backtest Coverage

Macro Months26101/2005 to 09/2026

ETF Universe113Strategist universe with price overlap

Downside Coverage108/113 ETFs4-27 confirmed-downside months

Holdout Exact State46%post-2018 independent GDP / inflation test

Direction Check62% / 70%growth / inflation, post-2018

Min Obs18per ETF by primary regime

Backtests use same-month returns while the regime is active. Downside Confirmed uses every ETF's available overlap, while the observation count and evidence-weighted ranking protect against short-history distortion.

How To Read This Page

1. Identify the macro regime.The scatter and monthly tape show whether activity and inflation pressure are improving or deteriorating. The four quadrants are intentionally simple: Goldilocks, Reflation, Inflation/Stagflation, and Disinflationary Slowdown.

2. Separate deceleration from contraction risk.The Downside Filter only activates inside the lower-left quadrant when at least two independent labor, activity, claims, payroll, or financial-condition flags agree. It is not a fifth quad and it never uses asset returns to define the state.

3. Translate to portfolio work.Use the sleeve and ETF tables as candidates, then require confirmation from the CIO Missive, Strategist command center, options, VAMS, and ticker tape before sizing trades.

Macro Regime Path

Each dot is one month and is labeled with month plus year. Right side means activity impulse is improving; left side means it is weakening. Upper half means inflation pressure is rising; lower half means inflation pressure is easing.

Interpretation: the current dot identifies the active regime; the path shows whether it is stable or transitioning. A light near-zero band preserves the prior direction only when a monthly signal is too small to be economically meaningful. The separate Downside Filter does not rewrite this chart; it only distinguishes ordinary lower-left deceleration from confirmed contraction risk.

Monthly Regime Tape

Same history as the scatter, shown as a month-by-month regime lane.

Why it matters: repeated months in the same lane mean regime persistence. Frequent lane changes mean the macro backdrop is unstable and position sizing should be more conservative.

Bayesian Regime Probability

Confidence rises when growth and inflation impulses are far from the zero lines and levels confirm the directional message.

What it is: this is a probability-style confidence check around the current regime. It should agree with the scatter; if it does not, the regime is transitional.

S&P 500 Price And Drawdown With Macro Quad Background

This chart overlays the model's monthly macro-quad regime bands behind the daily S&P 500 price path since 2018. The top panel is log-scale price; the bottom panel is the rolling drawdown from the prior high.

How to use it: use the background colors to see whether regime changes lined up with major market advances, drawdowns, and recoveries. The drawdown panel is the cleaner risk check: large declines should concentrate in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown, while Goldilocks and Reflation should generally support stronger compounding.

GoldilocksReflationInflation/StagflationDisinflationary Slowdown

Equity Stress Concentration Test

This checks whether large SPY downside months clustered in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown instead of relying only on visual inspection.

Validation Test	Months	Stagflation Or Slowdown Share	What It Means
Large monthly loss	10 / 11	90.9%	10 of 11 SPY months worse than -5% occurred in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown.
Severe monthly loss	6 / 6	100.0%	6 of 6 SPY months worse than -7% occurred in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown.
Deep drawdown state	12 / 16	75.0%	12 of 16 months with SPY at least 10% below its prior high occurred in Inflation/Stagflation or Disinflationary Slowdown.
Interpretation			Monthly shock months validate the regime map most cleanly. The broad lower-left label captures both soft deceleration and contraction risk; the macro-only Downside Filter distinguishes those cases without using price rebounds to alter the historical record.

Regime Performance Dashboard

The first four cards are the primary macro direction states. They show what SPY and the live ETF universe historically did while that state was active. The fifth card is a macro-only downside overlay inside the lower-left state, not a fifth quadrant.

Use this first: read Disinflationary Deceleration as a broad economic direction, not as a recession call. Its full history can include soft landings and recoveries, where Growth/Tech may lead. When the Downside-Confirmed Slowdown overlay activates, the protection card and the macro-only filter take precedence for the allocation read.

Current quad

Goldilocks

Growth rising, inflation pressure falling

SPY Ann.14.4%

SPY Avg Mo.1.13%

Hit Rate73%

Months49

Highest historical sleeve score: Growth / Tech Leadership
Top strategy-fit ETF: XLC
Highest raw ETF: BTC-USD

Historical quad

Reflation

Growth rising, inflation pressure rising

SPY Ann.26.7%

SPY Avg Mo.1.99%

Hit Rate76%

Months62

Highest historical sleeve score: Factors / Risk Appetite
Top strategy-fit ETF: BTC-USD
Highest raw ETF: BTC-USD

Historical quad

Inflation/Stagflation

Growth falling, inflation pressure rising

SPY Ann.-5.1%

SPY Avg Mo.-0.43%

Hit Rate50%

Months36

Highest historical sleeve score: Metals / Miners
Top strategy-fit ETF: DBC
Highest raw ETF: XLE

Historical quad

Disinflationary Deceleration

Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation

SPY Ann.20.2%

SPY Avg Mo.1.55%

Hit Rate70%

Months53

Broad-deceleration historical sleeve: Growth / Tech Leadership
Top strategy-fit ETF: SMH
Highest raw ETF: URNM
Read-through: this broad direction state includes soft landings, ordinary deceleration, and actual downturns. It is not a recession backtest. Use the separate Downside-Confirmed Slowdown overlay card and macro-only filter when protection should govern risk.

Macro-only overlay

Downside-Confirmed Slowdown

Lower-left direction state plus at least two independent labor, claims, production, payroll, or financial-condition stress flags.

SPY Ann.-17.8%

Protection Edge+1.36 pp/mo

Macro Months27

Recession Precision59%

Primary macro expression: Rates / Credit and Defensive Sectors.
Why it matters: this is the contraction-risk playbook. It is not a fifth quad and it never uses asset returns to define the state.

Bootstrapped Return Ranges By Regime

The chart ranks SPY and the strongest sleeves inside each macro regime. Bars show average same-month return; error bars show a 90% bootstrap range around that average. Downside Confirmed uses every ETF's available history, with long liquid-proxy histories extending overlapping instruments back to 2000.

How to use it: the useful read is not just which sleeve has the highest bar. Favor sleeves with attractive average monthly returns, tolerable uncertainty bands, and enough observations. Use the buttons in the chart to switch states.

Quad	Months	SPY Avg Month	SPY Ann.	SPY Mean 90% Range	SPY Realized 5-95%	Top Sleeve	Sleeve Avg Month	Sleeve Ann.	Sleeve Mean 90% Range	Sleeve Realized 5-95%
Goldilocks	49	1.13%	14.4%	0.32% to 1.88%	-5.67% to 6.32%	Growth / Tech Leadership	1.47%	19.1%	0.30% to 2.56%	-6.38% to 8.65%
Reflation	62	1.99%	26.7%	1.30% to 2.69%	-3.59% to 6.72%	Factors / Risk Appetite	1.93%	25.8%	1.19% to 2.71%	-4.00% to 6.53%
Inflation / Stag.	36	-0.43%	-5.1%	-1.48% to 0.57%	-8.00% to 4.63%	Metals / Miners	0.38%	4.7%	-1.57% to 2.31%	-9.16% to 10.13%
Disinflationary Slowdown	53	1.55%	20.2%	0.35% to 2.75%	-7.69% to 9.16%	Growth / Tech Leadership	2.02%	27.1%	0.46% to 3.57%	-10.07% to 12.65%
Downside Confirmed	27	-1.61%	-17.7%	-3.89% to 0.58%	-11.81% to 8.48%	Rates / Credit	0.75%	9.4%	-0.46% to 1.99%	-3.73% to 4.33%

Macro Downside Confirmation

This separates ordinary disinflationary deceleration from lower-left months where multiple independent macro stress measures agree. It replaces the old price-based V-shape adjustment so the state split is driven by economic evidence rather than market performance.

Current OverlayInactive0 of 5 macro stress flags

Recession Precision59%Official NBER month, 2000 onward

Recession Recall57%Official NBER month, 2000 onward

Validation Sample316 monthsupdated through 09/25/2026

Why this replaces the V-shape adjustment: the split is based only on macro evidence, not on which assets rallied. It keeps the four-quadrant model intact, then separates ordinary deceleration from a lower-left state where multiple independent downside measures agree. The fixed liquid proxy archive beginning in 2000 remains the long-history validation layer; the ETF tables use every instrument's available confirmed-downside history. No rebound month is removed from the primary backtest.

State	What It Means	Macro Months	Defensive Equity vs Growth/Tech	Cross-Asset Protection vs Growth/Tech	Proxy Observations	PM Use
Disinflationary deceleration	Both impulses falling, but fewer than two independent contraction flags are active.	69	-1.49 pp/mo	-2.26 pp/mo	69 equity / 64 cross-asset	Treat historical Growth/Tech leadership as tactical soft-landing evidence; require Strategist confirmation before adding beta.
Downside-confirmed slowdown	Lower-left macro quad plus at least two labor, claims, production, payroll, or financial-condition flags.	27	+0.23 pp/mo	+1.36 pp/mo	27 equity / 18 cross-asset	Prioritize rates and defensives over Growth/Tech risk; use the wider CIO process to set hedge and sizing decisions.

What Broad Disinflationary Slowdown History Contains

Every lower-left month is shown once. This separates the decision-grade macro downside subset from price-rebound sensitivity and ordinary deceleration without changing the four-quadrant model.

Lower-Left History96 monthsAll broad disinflationary slowdown months

Macro-Confirmed Downside28.1%27 of 96 months

V-Shaped Recovery7.3%7 of 96 months

Ordinary Deceleration64.6%62 of 96 months

28%7%65%

Macro-confirmed downsideV-shaped recovery, not macro-confirmedOrdinary deceleration

How to read this: only the red macro-confirmed share is a decision-grade contraction signal. The green recovery share is disclosed because it can make broad lower-left returns look stronger, but it is never removed and never changes the macro state. 3 macro-confirmed months also met the price-recovery screen; it stays in the macro-confirmed bucket because macro evidence takes priority.

Lower-Left Outcome	Months	Share	What It Means	Portfolio Use
Macro-confirmed downside	27	28.1%	At least two independent macro stress flags. This is the only lower-left subset that changes the portfolio playbook toward protection.	Protection-led
V-shaped recovery, not macro-confirmed	7	7.3%	A realized SPY rebound after a prior decline. This is outcome-based sensitivity context, not a macro regime rule.	Sensitivity only
Ordinary deceleration	62	64.6%	Lower-left month without macro downside confirmation or the price-recovery flag. Treat it as a broad slowdown and seek market confirmation.	Confirm before adding beta

Recovery sensitivity audit: full sample retained

What this tests: a price-rebound rule flags a month only after SPY has already risen at least 6% following a prior-month decline of 3% or more. Removing those months mechanically changes historical returns, but it is not an investable regime rule because it selects on the result being tested.

Flagged months (not removed): Apr 2001, Oct 2002, Mar 2009, Sep 2010, Oct 2011, Jan 2019, Apr 2020, Jul 2022, Oct 2022, Jan 2023. These remain in all primary backtests. The macro-only downside filter above, not this price screen, determines when protection governs the lower-left portfolio read.

Sample	Months	SPY Avg Mo.	SPY Ann.	Growth/Tech Ann.	Protection Ann.	Protection - Growth	Use
Broad lower-left, full sample	96	0.91%	11.5%	21.8%	7.4%	-1.47 pp/mo	Primary descriptive history. No returns are removed.
Outcome-based rebound sensitivity	86	-0.02%	-0.3%	4.5%	3.9%	-0.46 pp/mo	Sensitivity only. It cannot govern allocations because the screen uses the realized SPY return itself.
Macro downside confirmed	27	-1.62%	-17.8%	-14.4%	-4.9%	+1.36 pp/mo	Decision-grade contraction subset. Defined only from macro evidence.

Month	SPY Return	Prior SPY Return	Growth/Tech	Macro Downside
04/2001	8.54%	-5.60%	14.82%	Confirmed
10/2002	8.23%	-10.49%	18.72%	Not confirmed
03/2009	8.33%	-10.74%	12.47%	Confirmed
09/2010	8.96%	-4.50%	12.29%	Not confirmed
10/2011	10.91%	-6.94%	11.25%	Not confirmed
01/2019	8.01%	-8.80%	9.16%	Not confirmed
04/2020	12.70%	-12.49%	15.59%	Confirmed
07/2022	9.21%	-8.25%	16.10%	Not confirmed
10/2022	8.13%	-9.24%	3.66%	Not confirmed
01/2023	6.29%	-5.76%	13.74%	Not confirmed

Current Regime Decision Playbook

This converts the current regime into a usable PM workflow: where the macro regime naturally points, where historical performance is tactical rather than intuitive, and what requires confirmation before it becomes an allocation.

Read this as a shortlist: primary sleeves are the most natural expressions of the current macro regime; tactical sleeves may have worked historically but need stronger market confirmation before they deserve capital. A confirmed downside overlay automatically changes the lower-left shortlist toward the independently validated protection set, using every ETF's available overlap with confirmed downside months.

Decision Layer	Evidence	Numbers	PM Use
Primary macro sleeves	Growth / Tech Leadership, Core Index Beta, Style / Market Structure, Financial / Health Care Industries	Growth / Tech Leadership: 19.1% ann, 0.34% excess; Core Index Beta: 14.8% ann, 0.03% excess; Style / Market Structure: 13.9% ann, -0.04% excess	Use as the first shortlist only when Strategist, options, VAMS, and ticker-level tape confirm the same direction.
Tactical / verify sleeves	Thematic / Speculative Growth, Defensive Sectors, Commodities / Crypto / USD, International Equity	Thematic / Speculative Growth: 12.3% ann, -0.16% excess; Defensive Sectors: 8.0% ann, -0.49% excess; Commodities / Crypto / USD: 6.8% ann, -0.58% excess	Historically worked in the regime, but it is not the natural macro expression; require stronger market confirmation before using it as an allocation.
De-prioritize on macro alone	Metals / Miners, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, International Equity, Commodities / Crypto / USD	Metals / Miners: -2.9% ann, -1.37% excess; Industries / Infrastructure / Housing: 2.4% ann, -0.93% excess; International Equity: 3.3% ann, -0.85% excess	Require exceptional bottom-up or tactical evidence; these are not the natural current-quad expressions.
Macro-aligned ETF shortlist	XLC (Communication Services), ARKK (Speculative Innovation), IBB (Biotech Large Cap), PNQI (Internet), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), XBI (Biotech), IGV (Software), SMH (Semiconductors)	XLC: 28.7% ann, 78% hit; ARKK: 31.0% ann, 62% hit; IBB: 25.2% ann, 65% hit; PNQI: 24.7% ann, 61% hit	Best place to begin ticker-level review because history and macro logic both point in the same direction.
Highest raw ETF performers	BTC-USD (Bitcoin), CRAK (Oil Refiners), XLC (Communication Services), ARKK (Speculative Innovation), IBB (Biotech Large Cap), PNQI (Internet), QQQ (Nasdaq 100), XBI (Biotech)	BTC-USD: 202.6% ann, 8.37% excess; CRAK: 28.9% ann, 0.89% excess; XLC: 28.7% ann, 0.69% excess; ARKK: 31.0% ann, 1.02% excess	Useful for opportunity scan, but not enough by itself; volatile or less intuitive tickers need a higher confirmation burden.
Risk control	Worst-month and hit-rate columns are mandatory context.	A high annualized return with weak hit rate or severe worst month is a trade candidate, not a sleeve anchor.	Position sizing should come from the CIO Missive and Strategist command center; this page supplies regime evidence.

Current Regime Sleeve Ranking

Current primary regime is Goldilocks. The table uses the downside-confirmed overlay only when it is active; otherwise it ranks the primary macro state. It ranks sleeves by same-month average return, annualized return, excess return versus SPY, hit rate, and downside month.

Decision rule: annualized return shows scale, average month shows the actual observed monthly edge, hit rate shows consistency, and worst month shows sizing risk. For Downside Confirmed, every ETF uses its available overlap; observation count shows how much history supports each result.

Sleeve	ETF Count	Obs	Avg Mo	Ann. Return	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Rank
Growth / Tech Leadership	12	49	1.47%	19.1%	0.34%	63%	-9.68%	0.87
Core Index Beta	6	49	1.16%	14.8%	0.03%	71%	-7.87%	0.84
Style / Market Structure	6	49	1.09%	13.9%	-0.04%	71%	-7.72%	0.79
Financial / Health Care Industries	10	49	1.07%	13.7%	-0.05%	65%	-8.72%	0.62
Factors / Risk Appetite	5	44	0.79%	9.9%	-0.44%	68%	-7.36%	0.43
Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	49	0.97%	12.3%	-0.16%	59%	-11.04%	0.39
Cyclical Sectors	7	49	0.86%	10.8%	-0.27%	61%	-9.36%	0.36
Defensive Sectors	4	49	0.64%	8.0%	-0.49%	61%	-5.55%	0.20
Rates / Credit	14	49	0.28%	3.4%	-0.85%	65%	-2.55%	0.03
Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	49	0.55%	6.8%	-0.58%	55%	-9.68%	-0.02
International Equity	8	49	0.27%	3.3%	-0.85%	61%	-11.86%	-0.08
Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	49	0.20%	2.4%	-0.93%	51%	-12.59%	-0.39
Metals / Miners	10	49	-0.24%	-2.9%	-1.37%	45%	-14.66%	-0.87

Regime Summary

Four rows are primary macro directions. The downside-confirmed row is an overlapping contraction-risk filter, shown separately so it cannot be mistaken for a fifth quadrant.

Quad	Definition	Months	SPY Avg Month	SPY Hit Rate	Model Use
Goldilocks	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling	49	1.13%	73%	Best backdrop for balanced risk when the Strategist deck confirms breadth, options, and momentum.
Reflation	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising	63	1.99%	76%	Own growth through cyclicals, inflation-sensitive assets, industrials, and semis; be careful with duration.
Inflation/Stagflation	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising	36	-0.43%	50%	Hardest macro mix: prefer real assets, defensives, hedges, and quality until inflation or growth repairs.
Disinflationary Slowdown	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation	53	1.55%	70%	This is broad deceleration, not automatically a recession call. The separate macro downside-confirmation layer distinguishes soft landings from genuine contraction risk. Use rates and defensives when that layer confirms; otherwise treat quality/growth leadership as tactical and require market confirmation.
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Lower-left macro direction plus at least two independent macro stress flags	27	-1.61%	48%	Contraction-risk overlay: prioritize rates and defensives over Growth/Tech risk, then confirm sizing with the CIO process.

Bayesian Details

Quad	Prior	Posterior	Evidence Update	Definition	PM Use
Goldilocks	21.1%	64.7%	+43.5 pp	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling	Best backdrop for balanced risk when the Strategist deck confirms breadth, options, and momentum.
Disinflationary Slowdown	28.3%	30.7%	+2.4 pp	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation	This is broad deceleration, not automatically a recession call. The separate macro downside-confirmation layer distinguishes soft landings from genuine contraction risk. Use rates and defensives when that layer confirms; otherwise treat quality/growth leadership as tactical and require market confirmation.
Reflation	27.9%	3.6%	-24.3 pp	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising	Own growth through cyclicals, inflation-sensitive assets, industrials, and semis; be careful with duration.
Inflation/Stagflation	22.6%	1.0%	-21.6 pp	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising	Hardest macro mix: prefer real assets, defensives, hedges, and quality until inflation or growth repairs.

Best ETF Performers By Regime

This is the direct "what worked in each state" layer. The four primary states use same-month live-ETF backtests. Downside Confirmed uses every ETF's available overlap with confirmed downside months, extending the liquid proxy subset back to 2000 where possible.

How to use it: start with the current regime, then compare the same ETF across other regimes. A ticker that only works in one regime is a tactical expression; a ticker that works across regimes is more suitable as a core sleeve candidate. Always compare the Obs column before treating a short-history result as equal to a long-history result.

Current state

Goldilocks ETF Leaders

Growth rising, inflation pressure falling. Ranked by same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate, with short samples discounted.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	202.6%	9.67%	8.37%	70%	-13.88%	30
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	28.9%	2.14%	0.89%	69%	-9.67%	29
XLC	Communication Services	Cyclical Sectors	28.7%	2.12%	0.69%	78%	-5.95%	23
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Growth / Tech Leadership	31.0%	2.27%	1.02%	62%	-13.74%	29
IBB	Biotech Large Cap	Financial / Health Care Industries	25.2%	1.89%	0.76%	65%	-11.32%	49
PNQI	Internet	Growth / Tech Leadership	24.7%	1.86%	0.73%	61%	-9.90%	49
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Core Index Beta	21.9%	1.67%	0.54%	65%	-8.23%	49
XBI	Biotech	Financial / Health Care Industries	25.9%	1.94%	0.81%	57%	-15.30%	49
IGV	Software	Growth / Tech Leadership	23.9%	1.80%	0.67%	61%	-8.31%	49
SMH	Semiconductors	Growth / Tech Leadership	22.7%	1.72%	0.59%	61%	-17.59%	49
OEF	S&P 100	Core Index Beta	16.7%	1.30%	0.17%	73%	-8.50%	49
XLK	Technology	Growth / Tech Leadership	21.4%	1.63%	0.50%	63%	-8.66%	49
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Growth / Tech Leadership	30.2%	2.22%	0.79%	61%	-10.24%	23
XLG	S&P Top 50	Core Index Beta	17.4%	1.35%	0.22%	69%	-8.47%	49
URNM	Uranium Miners	Metals / Miners	34.4%	2.49%	1.10%	53%	-13.52%	19
CLOU	Cloud Computing	Growth / Tech Leadership	23.8%	1.79%	0.48%	68%	-8.50%	22
SPY	S&P 500	Core Index Beta	14.4%	1.13%	0.00%	73%	-7.95%	49
QUAL	Quality Factor	Factors / Risk Appetite	16.4%	1.28%	-0.06%	72%	-6.58%	36

Historical state

Reflation ETF Leaders

Growth rising, inflation pressure rising. Ranked by same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate, with short samples discounted.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	142.2%	7.65%	5.69%	59%	-35.35%	44
SMH	Semiconductors	Growth / Tech Leadership	55.0%	3.72%	1.73%	76%	-5.65%	62
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Growth / Tech Leadership	70.2%	4.53%	2.48%	69%	-7.65%	26
BUG	Cybersecurity	Growth / Tech Leadership	55.4%	3.74%	1.51%	58%	-12.29%	24
CARZ	Global Autos	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	36.6%	2.63%	0.73%	69%	-8.61%	55
IAI	Broker-Dealers	Financial / Health Care Industries	37.3%	2.68%	0.69%	69%	-8.23%	62
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Growth / Tech Leadership	41.4%	2.93%	0.98%	57%	-13.22%	44
XLK	Technology	Growth / Tech Leadership	34.5%	2.50%	0.51%	68%	-5.76%	62
SPHB	High Beta	Factors / Risk Appetite	33.3%	2.43%	0.52%	67%	-6.56%	55
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Core Index Beta	32.6%	2.38%	0.39%	69%	-5.78%	62
XHB	Homebuilders	Cyclical Sectors	29.7%	2.19%	0.20%	74%	-14.82%	62
VO	Mid-Cap Blend	Style / Market Structure	27.4%	2.04%	0.05%	77%	-6.82%	62
RSP	S&P 500 Equal Weight	Core Index Beta	26.6%	1.99%	-0.00%	79%	-6.27%	62
IYG	Financial Services	Financial / Health Care Industries	32.8%	2.39%	0.40%	66%	-7.45%	62
USO	Oil	Commodities / Crypto / USD	34.4%	2.49%	0.50%	63%	-21.58%	62
MTUM	Momentum Factor	Factors / Risk Appetite	31.7%	2.32%	0.47%	65%	-5.47%	49
IHF	Health Care Providers	Financial / Health Care Industries	28.9%	2.14%	0.15%	73%	-12.00%	62
XLF	Financials	Cyclical Sectors	32.1%	2.35%	0.36%	66%	-5.46%	62

Historical state

Inflation / Stag. ETF Leaders

Growth falling, inflation pressure rising. Ranked by same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate, with short samples discounted.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
XLE	Energy	Cyclical Sectors	19.5%	1.49%	1.93%	56%	-17.07%	36
XOP	Oil & Gas Exploration	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	17.2%	1.33%	1.77%	53%	-22.27%	36
FCG	Natural Gas Producers	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	14.1%	1.11%	1.54%	58%	-22.68%	36
XES	Oil & Gas Equipment	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	14.3%	1.12%	1.55%	53%	-22.17%	36
DBC	Broad Commodities	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12.6%	0.99%	1.43%	56%	-8.76%	36
OIH	Oil Services	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	13.8%	1.08%	1.51%	53%	-20.74%	36
PALL	Palladium	Commodities / Crypto / USD	11.5%	0.91%	1.34%	56%	-22.80%	36
GSG	Broad Commodities	Metals / Miners	11.3%	0.89%	1.32%	56%	-10.61%	36
USO	Oil	Commodities / Crypto / USD	10.6%	0.84%	1.27%	53%	-17.81%	36
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	17.7%	1.37%	1.97%	40%	-37.77%	25
GLD	Gold	Commodities / Crypto / USD	13.4%	1.05%	1.48%	42%	-6.26%	36
DBA	Agriculture	Commodities / Crypto / USD	7.1%	0.57%	1.00%	56%	-7.32%	36
STIP	Short-Term TIPS	Rates / Credit	1.8%	0.15%	0.70%	66%	-1.50%	35
TIP	TIPS	Rates / Credit	1.5%	0.13%	0.56%	64%	-3.12%	36
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	4.2%	0.34%	1.04%	59%	-11.58%	22
GDX	Gold Miners	Metals / Miners	7.0%	0.56%	1.00%	50%	-13.71%	36
COPX	Copper Miners	Metals / Miners	8.1%	0.65%	1.08%	47%	-21.44%	36
HAP	Natural Resources	Metals / Miners	5.6%	0.46%	0.89%	53%	-14.92%	36

Historical state

Disinflationary Slowdown ETF Leaders

Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation. Ranked by same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate, with short samples discounted.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
URNM	Uranium Miners	Metals / Miners	86.8%	5.34%	3.04%	64%	-16.24%	22
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Commodities / Crypto / USD	54.1%	3.67%	2.32%	53%	-36.41%	45
SMH	Semiconductors	Growth / Tech Leadership	47.7%	3.31%	1.76%	68%	-13.73%	53
GDX	Gold Miners	Metals / Miners	41.2%	2.92%	1.37%	68%	-14.29%	53
XBI	Biotech	Financial / Health Care Industries	39.1%	2.79%	1.24%	68%	-27.99%	53
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Growth / Tech Leadership	38.2%	2.73%	0.82%	76%	-12.15%	33
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Growth / Tech Leadership	39.8%	2.83%	1.49%	56%	-18.18%	45
SIL	Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	39.1%	2.79%	1.24%	58%	-25.48%	53
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Growth / Tech Leadership	37.5%	2.69%	0.83%	73%	-13.39%	30
GDXJ	Junior Gold Miners	Metals / Miners	38.7%	2.76%	1.22%	57%	-24.55%	53
XLK	Technology	Growth / Tech Leadership	31.7%	2.32%	0.78%	64%	-11.97%	53
SLV	Silver	Commodities / Crypto / USD	32.9%	2.40%	0.85%	60%	-28.53%	53
XHB	Homebuilders	Cyclical Sectors	30.6%	2.25%	0.70%	64%	-29.87%	53
PAVE	Infrastructure	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	33.9%	2.46%	0.59%	65%	-20.99%	34
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	32.7%	2.39%	0.96%	54%	-22.67%	46
IBB	Biotech Large Cap	Financial / Health Care Industries	27.5%	2.04%	0.50%	66%	-21.07%	53
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Core Index Beta	29.1%	2.15%	0.60%	62%	-10.54%	53
IGV	Software	Growth / Tech Leadership	27.9%	2.08%	0.53%	64%	-14.55%	53

Historical state

Downside Confirmed ETF Leaders

Lower-left macro direction plus at least two independent macro stress flags. Ranked by same-month excess return, average return, and hit rate, with short samples discounted.

Ticker	ETF Name	Sleeve	Ann. Return	Avg Mo	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Obs
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	270.9%	11.54%	9.80%	75%	-22.67%	4
GDXJ	Junior Gold Miners	Metals / Miners	243.7%	10.84%	9.10%	75%	-22.05%	4
GDX	Gold Miners	Metals / Miners	223.8%	10.29%	8.55%	75%	-12.13%	4
TLT	20+ Year Treasury	Rates / Credit	29.2%	2.16%	4.35%	72%	-13.07%	18
SIL	Silver Miners	Metals / Miners	189.0%	9.25%	7.51%	75%	-12.41%	4
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Growth / Tech Leadership	181.8%	9.02%	7.28%	75%	-16.73%	4
FCG	Natural Gas Producers	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	200.5%	9.60%	7.86%	50%	-44.74%	4
HERO	Video Games & Esports	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	168.2%	8.57%	6.83%	75%	-2.27%	4
CLOU	Cloud Computing	Growth / Tech Leadership	149.3%	7.91%	6.17%	75%	-9.54%	4
IEF	7-10 Year Treasury	Rates / Credit	18.5%	1.42%	3.62%	67%	-3.89%	18
SOCL	Social Media	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	136.9%	7.45%	5.71%	75%	-10.01%	4
PNQI	Internet	Growth / Tech Leadership	120.0%	6.79%	5.05%	75%	-9.42%	4
XBI	Biotech	Financial / Health Care Industries	115.6%	6.61%	4.87%	75%	-13.16%	4
SHY	1-3 Year Treasury	Rates / Credit	5.9%	0.48%	2.67%	78%	-0.84%	18
BUG	Cybersecurity	Growth / Tech Leadership	104.8%	6.15%	4.41%	75%	-6.11%	4
URNM	Uranium Miners	Metals / Miners	117.0%	6.67%	4.93%	50%	-10.58%	4
IGV	Software	Growth / Tech Leadership	90.4%	5.51%	3.77%	75%	-9.84%	4
LQD	Investment Grade Credit	Rates / Credit	7.3%	0.59%	2.78%	61%	-10.73%	18

Group Excess Return Map

Green means the group historically outperformed SPY in that state; red means it lagged. Color is scaled within each state column so every state shows its own leaders and laggards instead of being washed out by one extreme column. The Downside Confirmed column uses every ETF's available history.

Important: the colors are relative inside each state column, but the printed numbers are actual average monthly excess returns versus SPY. Downside coverage can differ by sleeve because newer ETFs have fewer confirmed-downside months. Use the color to scan, then use the number and observation count to decide.

ETF Tables By Sleeve

All ETFs are shown inside their Strategist sleeves. Each primary quad shows annualized and average monthly same-month return. Downside Confirmed uses each ETF's available overlap with confirmed downside months; a dash means no overlap, not zero return.

Table logic: Best Primary Quad shows the strongest of the four macro directions. Downside Confirmed is a separate contraction-risk comparison. Current Ann and Current Avg judge the live primary regime, while Current Excess, Hit Rate, and Obs judge reliability.

Sleeve ETF table

Core Index Beta

Top current-quad candidate: QQQ at 21.9% annualized, 0.54% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Reflation	21.9%	1.67%	32.6%	2.38%	-5.0%	-0.43%	29.1%	2.15%	-14.1%	-1.26%	27	21.9%	1.67%	0.54%	65%	49
OEF	S&P 100	Reflation	16.7%	1.30%	26.6%	1.99%	-5.9%	-0.50%	20.9%	1.59%	31.7%	2.32%	4	16.7%	1.30%	0.17%	73%	49
XLG	S&P Top 50	Reflation	17.4%	1.35%	25.6%	1.92%	-5.9%	-0.50%	21.7%	1.65%	40.7%	2.88%	4	17.4%	1.35%	0.22%	69%	49
SPY	S&P 500	Reflation	14.4%	1.13%	26.7%	1.99%	-5.1%	-0.43%	20.2%	1.55%	-17.7%	-1.61%	27	14.4%	1.13%	0.00%	73%	49
RSP	S&P 500 Equal Weight	Reflation	8.9%	0.72%	26.6%	1.99%	-4.1%	-0.35%	18.1%	1.39%	-27.8%	-2.68%	16	8.9%	0.72%	-0.41%	63%	49
IWM	Russell 2000	Reflation	9.8%	0.79%	27.8%	2.07%	-8.5%	-0.74%	16.9%	1.31%	-18.7%	-1.71%	27	9.8%	0.79%	-0.34%	55%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Growth / Tech Leadership

Top current-quad candidate: ARKK at 31.0% annualized, 1.02% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Reflation	31.0%	2.27%	41.4%	2.93%	-34.3%	-3.45%	39.8%	2.83%	181.8%	9.02%	4	31.0%	2.27%	1.02%	62%	29
PNQI	Internet	Disinflationary Slowdown	24.7%	1.86%	25.1%	1.88%	-13.9%	-1.24%	28.5%	2.11%	120.0%	6.79%	4	24.7%	1.86%	0.73%	61%	49
IGV	Software	Disinflationary Slowdown	23.9%	1.80%	27.1%	2.02%	-10.8%	-0.94%	27.9%	2.08%	90.4%	5.51%	4	23.9%	1.80%	0.67%	61%	49
SMH	Semiconductors	Reflation	22.7%	1.72%	55.0%	3.72%	-9.0%	-0.78%	47.7%	3.31%	-19.6%	-1.81%	27	22.7%	1.72%	0.59%	61%	49
XLK	Technology	Reflation	21.4%	1.63%	34.5%	2.50%	-4.2%	-0.35%	31.7%	2.32%	-16.6%	-1.50%	27	21.4%	1.63%	0.50%	63%	49
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Reflation	30.2%	2.22%	38.3%	2.74%	-22.5%	-2.10%	38.2%	2.73%	85.0%	5.26%	4	30.2%	2.22%	0.79%	61%	23
CLOU	Cloud Computing	Disinflationary Slowdown	23.8%	1.79%	23.2%	1.76%	—	—	32.8%	2.40%	149.3%	7.91%	4	23.8%	1.79%	0.48%	68%	22
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Reflation	21.8%	1.65%	70.2%	4.53%	—	—	37.5%	2.69%	56.9%	3.83%	4	21.8%	1.65%	0.22%	70%	23
BUG	Cybersecurity	Reflation	24.8%	1.86%	55.4%	3.74%	—	—	15.2%	1.19%	104.8%	6.15%	4	24.8%	1.86%	0.47%	58%	19
NXTG	Next-Gen Connectivity	Reflation	14.6%	1.14%	28.7%	2.13%	-7.1%	-0.61%	15.6%	1.22%	27.2%	2.02%	4	14.6%	1.14%	-0.08%	66%	44
GRID	Smart Grid Infrastructure	Reflation	11.9%	0.94%	26.5%	1.98%	-1.8%	-0.15%	17.1%	1.33%	17.2%	1.33%	4	11.9%	0.94%	-0.18%	59%	49
ROBO	Robotics & Automation	Reflation	10.9%	0.87%	24.9%	1.87%	-20.9%	-1.94%	22.0%	1.67%	54.7%	3.70%	4	10.9%	0.87%	-0.46%	61%	36

Sleeve ETF table

Cyclical Sectors

Top current-quad candidate: XLC at 28.7% annualized, 0.69% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
XLC	Communication Services	Goldilocks	28.7%	2.12%	22.7%	1.72%	—	—	20.9%	1.59%	29.6%	2.18%	4	28.7%	2.12%	0.69%	78%	23
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	Reflation	15.7%	1.22%	25.9%	1.94%	-5.2%	-0.45%	22.1%	1.67%	-6.4%	-0.55%	27	15.7%	1.22%	0.09%	63%	49
XLF	Financials	Reflation	12.5%	0.99%	32.1%	2.35%	-9.3%	-0.81%	11.9%	0.94%	-24.8%	-2.34%	4	12.5%	0.99%	-0.14%	59%	49
XLI	Industrials	Reflation	11.8%	0.93%	27.6%	2.05%	-6.9%	-0.59%	22.2%	1.69%	-7.1%	-0.61%	4	11.8%	0.93%	-0.20%	59%	49
XHB	Homebuilders	Disinflationary Slowdown	12.4%	0.98%	29.7%	2.19%	-14.4%	-1.29%	30.6%	2.25%	44.5%	3.12%	4	12.4%	0.98%	-0.15%	53%	49
XLB	Materials	Reflation	5.3%	0.44%	21.0%	1.60%	-1.1%	-0.09%	16.5%	1.28%	35.5%	2.56%	4	5.3%	0.44%	-0.69%	53%	49
XLE	Energy	Reflation	0.9%	0.07%	21.8%	1.66%	19.5%	1.49%	8.5%	0.68%	-7.8%	-0.68%	4	0.9%	0.07%	-1.06%	53%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Defensive Sectors

Top current-quad candidate: XLV at 13.2% annualized, -0.09% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
XLV	Health Care	Reflation	13.2%	1.04%	19.4%	1.49%	-0.5%	-0.04%	17.8%	1.37%	-11.1%	-0.98%	27	13.2%	1.04%	-0.09%	67%	49
XLU	Utilities	Reflation	8.1%	0.65%	19.8%	1.51%	1.6%	0.14%	10.0%	0.80%	-16.8%	-1.52%	27	8.1%	0.65%	-0.48%	63%	49
XLP	Consumer Staples	Reflation	5.5%	0.45%	18.7%	1.44%	0.3%	0.02%	14.4%	1.13%	-7.0%	-0.60%	27	5.5%	0.45%	-0.68%	55%	49
XLRE	Real Estate	Reflation	-1.7%	-0.14%	19.9%	1.52%	-4.4%	-0.37%	10.2%	0.81%	-6.7%	-0.58%	4	-1.7%	-0.14%	-1.40%	59%	29

Sleeve ETF table

Style / Market Structure

Top current-quad candidate: IWF at 17.3% annualized, 0.21% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
IWF	Russell 1000 Growth	Reflation	17.3%	1.34%	28.5%	2.11%	-6.5%	-0.55%	25.3%	1.90%	-15.2%	-1.37%	27	17.3%	1.34%	0.21%	65%	49
SPXT	S&P 500 Ex-Technology	Reflation	10.5%	0.84%	21.2%	1.61%	-6.8%	-0.59%	17.4%	1.35%	11.8%	0.93%	4	10.5%	0.84%	-0.42%	69%	29
IWD	Russell 1000 Value	Reflation	10.4%	0.83%	25.9%	1.94%	-5.0%	-0.43%	14.6%	1.14%	-20.7%	-1.92%	27	10.4%	0.83%	-0.30%	59%	49
VO	Mid-Cap Blend	Reflation	9.6%	0.77%	27.4%	2.04%	-7.2%	-0.62%	18.6%	1.43%	16.5%	1.28%	4	9.6%	0.77%	-0.36%	59%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Factors / Risk Appetite

Top current-quad candidate: QUAL at 16.4% annualized, -0.06% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
QUAL	Quality Factor	Reflation	16.4%	1.28%	23.2%	1.75%	-6.7%	-0.57%	19.6%	1.50%	22.0%	1.67%	4	16.4%	1.28%	-0.06%	72%	36
MTUM	Momentum Factor	Reflation	12.3%	0.97%	31.7%	2.32%	-6.3%	-0.54%	23.5%	1.77%	35.9%	2.59%	4	12.3%	0.97%	-0.32%	66%	38
SPHB	High Beta	Reflation	11.5%	0.91%	33.3%	2.43%	-6.1%	-0.52%	23.8%	1.80%	24.2%	1.82%	4	11.5%	0.91%	-0.32%	57%	44
SPLV	Low Volatility	Reflation	7.1%	0.57%	20.5%	1.57%	-2.3%	-0.20%	11.2%	0.89%	-17.8%	-1.63%	4	7.1%	0.57%	-0.65%	59%	44
SPHD	High Dividend Low Vol	Reflation	5.8%	0.47%	20.8%	1.59%	0.3%	0.03%	9.4%	0.75%	-24.6%	-2.33%	4	5.8%	0.47%	-0.89%	57%	40

Sleeve ETF table

Industries / Infrastructure / Housing

Top current-quad candidate: CRAK at 28.9% annualized, 0.89% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Goldilocks	28.9%	2.14%	17.5%	1.35%	4.2%	0.34%	18.7%	1.44%	1.7%	0.14%	4	28.9%	2.14%	0.89%	69%	29
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	Reflation	14.7%	1.15%	24.2%	1.82%	0.2%	0.02%	23.4%	1.77%	-34.2%	-3.42%	4	14.7%	1.15%	0.02%	65%	49
ITB	Home Construction	Disinflationary Slowdown	17.1%	1.33%	29.6%	2.18%	-15.4%	-1.38%	31.7%	2.32%	49.8%	3.42%	4	17.1%	1.33%	0.20%	59%	49
XTL	Telecom	Reflation	11.2%	0.89%	28.7%	2.12%	-12.9%	-1.14%	17.7%	1.37%	26.0%	1.94%	4	11.2%	0.89%	-0.34%	64%	44
XTN	Transportation	Reflation	12.9%	1.02%	25.8%	1.93%	-11.4%	-1.00%	18.0%	1.39%	-1.5%	-0.13%	4	12.9%	1.02%	-0.21%	57%	44
HERO	Video Games & Esports	Disinflationary Slowdown	12.4%	0.98%	15.6%	1.21%	—	—	30.1%	2.21%	168.2%	8.57%	4	12.4%	0.98%	-0.41%	58%	19
SOCL	Social Media	Disinflationary Slowdown	10.0%	0.79%	20.7%	1.58%	-15.1%	-1.36%	22.9%	1.73%	136.9%	7.45%	4	10.0%	0.79%	-0.47%	53%	43
CARZ	Global Autos	Reflation	9.5%	0.76%	36.6%	2.63%	-12.9%	-1.15%	15.2%	1.18%	14.6%	1.14%	4	9.5%	0.76%	-0.47%	52%	44
PAVE	Infrastructure	Disinflationary Slowdown	8.3%	0.67%	28.0%	2.08%	-4.6%	-0.39%	33.9%	2.46%	5.5%	0.45%	4	8.3%	0.67%	-0.74%	44%	27
JETS	Airlines	Reflation	4.4%	0.36%	20.0%	1.53%	-25.6%	-2.43%	18.9%	1.45%	-54.7%	-6.39%	4	4.4%	0.36%	-0.89%	48%	29
XOP	Oil & Gas Exploration	Reflation	-9.5%	-0.83%	31.5%	2.31%	17.2%	1.33%	1.6%	0.13%	59.7%	3.98%	4	-9.5%	-0.83%	-1.95%	47%	49
XES	Oil & Gas Equipment	Reflation	-11.7%	-1.03%	23.6%	1.78%	14.3%	1.12%	-6.0%	-0.51%	-36.6%	-3.73%	4	-11.7%	-1.03%	-2.16%	43%	49
OIH	Oil Services	Reflation	-12.7%	-1.13%	22.0%	1.67%	13.8%	1.08%	0.9%	0.08%	-21.3%	-1.97%	4	-12.7%	-1.13%	-2.26%	45%	49
FCG	Natural Gas Producers	Reflation	-20.1%	-1.85%	26.2%	1.96%	14.1%	1.11%	-2.7%	-0.23%	200.5%	9.60%	4	-20.1%	-1.85%	-2.98%	41%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Thematic / Speculative Growth

Top current-quad candidate: PEJ at 9.0% annualized, -0.41% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
PEJ	Leisure & Entertainment	Reflation	9.0%	0.72%	27.6%	2.05%	-5.1%	-0.43%	13.7%	1.07%	-34.1%	-3.41%	4	9.0%	0.72%	-0.41%	61%	49
PINK	Health Care Leaders	Disinflationary Slowdown	12.1%	0.95%	—	—	—	—	24.0%	1.81%	—	—	â€”	12.1%	0.95%	-0.44%	58%	19
UFO	Space Economy	Reflation	6.3%	0.51%	39.8%	2.83%	—	—	27.7%	2.06%	-29.2%	-2.84%	4	6.3%	0.51%	-0.80%	50%	22

Sleeve ETF table

Financial / Health Care Industries

Top current-quad candidate: IBB at 25.2% annualized, 0.76% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
IBB	Biotech Large Cap	Disinflationary Slowdown	25.2%	1.89%	17.1%	1.33%	-12.9%	-1.14%	27.5%	2.04%	79.4%	4.99%	4	25.2%	1.89%	0.76%	65%	49
XBI	Biotech	Disinflationary Slowdown	25.9%	1.94%	20.1%	1.54%	-17.1%	-1.55%	39.1%	2.79%	115.6%	6.61%	4	25.9%	1.94%	0.81%	57%	49
IHE	Pharmaceuticals	Reflation	16.6%	1.29%	17.6%	1.36%	-0.9%	-0.08%	16.7%	1.30%	26.7%	1.99%	4	16.6%	1.29%	0.16%	67%	49
IAK	Insurance	Reflation	13.3%	1.05%	26.8%	2.00%	-0.4%	-0.04%	11.2%	0.89%	-26.8%	-2.57%	4	13.3%	1.05%	-0.08%	67%	49
IYG	Financial Services	Reflation	12.7%	1.00%	32.8%	2.39%	-9.2%	-0.80%	13.4%	1.05%	-15.8%	-1.42%	4	12.7%	1.00%	-0.13%	61%	49
IAI	Broker-Dealers	Reflation	11.5%	0.91%	37.3%	2.68%	-6.9%	-0.60%	16.7%	1.29%	-4.6%	-0.39%	4	11.5%	0.91%	-0.22%	59%	49
IHF	Health Care Providers	Reflation	10.2%	0.82%	28.9%	2.14%	-2.1%	-0.17%	11.7%	0.93%	30.3%	2.23%	4	10.2%	0.82%	-0.31%	53%	49
PSP	Private Equity	Reflation	7.7%	0.62%	22.9%	1.73%	-11.7%	-1.03%	16.4%	1.28%	-2.0%	-0.17%	4	7.7%	0.62%	-0.51%	55%	49
KRE	Regional Banks	Reflation	8.3%	0.67%	31.8%	2.33%	-4.9%	-0.42%	9.5%	0.76%	-30.8%	-3.02%	4	8.3%	0.67%	-0.46%	53%	49
IHI	Medical Devices	Reflation	7.0%	0.57%	28.3%	2.10%	-7.7%	-0.67%	18.2%	1.40%	36.6%	2.63%	4	7.0%	0.57%	-0.56%	55%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Rates / Credit

Top current-quad candidate: CWB at 9.3% annualized, -0.38% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
CWB	Convertible Bonds	Reflation	9.3%	0.74%	21.8%	1.66%	-5.1%	-0.43%	13.4%	1.05%	42.4%	2.99%	4	9.3%	0.74%	-0.38%	71%	49
BKLN	Senior Loans	Reflation	5.6%	0.45%	6.4%	0.52%	-4.0%	-0.34%	5.5%	0.45%	-3.8%	-0.32%	4	5.6%	0.45%	-0.77%	80%	44
HYG	High Yield Credit	Reflation	5.5%	0.45%	9.2%	0.73%	-3.1%	-0.26%	7.6%	0.61%	-10.4%	-0.91%	16	5.5%	0.45%	-0.68%	69%	49
SHY	1-3 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.1%	0.17%	0.7%	0.06%	0.2%	0.02%	2.1%	0.17%	5.9%	0.48%	18	2.1%	0.17%	-0.96%	71%	49
PFF	Preferred Stock	Reflation	4.9%	0.40%	9.8%	0.78%	-7.0%	-0.60%	8.6%	0.69%	-4.4%	-0.38%	4	4.9%	0.40%	-0.73%	63%	49
LQD	Investment Grade Credit	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.5%	0.28%	5.0%	0.41%	-5.2%	-0.44%	9.5%	0.76%	7.3%	0.59%	18	3.5%	0.28%	-0.84%	65%	49
MBB	Mortgage-Backed Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.0%	0.17%	1.6%	0.14%	-1.3%	-0.11%	4.2%	0.34%	5.9%	0.48%	4	2.0%	0.17%	-0.96%	65%	49
IEF	7-10 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.1%	0.26%	0.3%	0.02%	0.1%	0.01%	6.1%	0.50%	18.5%	1.42%	18	3.1%	0.26%	-0.87%	61%	49
AGG	Aggregate Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.6%	0.21%	2.2%	0.18%	-1.7%	-0.15%	5.2%	0.43%	8.1%	0.65%	16	2.6%	0.21%	-0.92%	59%	49
EMB	EM USD Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.5%	0.21%	8.0%	0.64%	-5.0%	-0.43%	10.0%	0.80%	-3.9%	-0.33%	4	2.5%	0.21%	-0.92%	59%	49
TLT	20+ Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.4%	0.28%	2.0%	0.16%	-6.5%	-0.56%	10.6%	0.85%	29.2%	2.16%	18	3.4%	0.28%	-0.85%	55%	49
TIP	TIPS	Reflation	0.5%	0.05%	4.5%	0.37%	1.5%	0.13%	3.6%	0.29%	4.2%	0.34%	16	0.5%	0.05%	-1.08%	59%	49
EMLC	EM Local Currency Bonds	Reflation	-1.6%	-0.13%	7.3%	0.59%	-6.5%	-0.56%	3.7%	0.30%	-7.2%	-0.62%	4	-1.6%	-0.13%	-1.36%	57%	44
STIP	Short-Term TIPS	Reflation	0.9%	0.08%	4.1%	0.34%	1.8%	0.15%	1.8%	0.15%	4.2%	0.34%	4	0.9%	0.08%	-1.15%	50%	44

Sleeve ETF table

Metals / Miners

Top current-quad candidate: URNM at 34.4% annualized, 1.10% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
URNM	Uranium Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	34.4%	2.49%	14.7%	1.15%	—	—	86.8%	5.34%	117.0%	6.67%	4	34.4%	2.49%	1.10%	53%	19
WOOD	Timber & Forestry	Reflation	5.0%	0.41%	22.1%	1.68%	-9.0%	-0.78%	6.9%	0.56%	-1.9%	-0.16%	4	5.0%	0.41%	-0.72%	53%	49
GSG	Broad Commodities	Reflation	-0.0%	-0.00%	19.3%	1.48%	11.3%	0.89%	-13.6%	-1.21%	-42.1%	-4.45%	4	-0.0%	-0.00%	-1.13%	51%	49
GDX	Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-0.4%	-0.03%	5.8%	0.47%	7.0%	0.56%	41.2%	2.92%	223.8%	10.29%	4	-0.4%	-0.03%	-1.16%	49%	49
HAP	Natural Resources	Reflation	-1.1%	-0.09%	20.4%	1.56%	5.6%	0.46%	11.1%	0.88%	3.6%	0.30%	4	-1.1%	-0.09%	-1.22%	49%	49
COPX	Copper Miners	Reflation	-1.5%	-0.13%	28.9%	2.14%	8.1%	0.65%	19.0%	1.46%	76.9%	4.87%	4	-1.5%	-0.13%	-1.14%	43%	47
XME	Metals & Mining	Reflation	-3.7%	-0.31%	34.0%	2.47%	1.1%	0.09%	13.1%	1.03%	9.7%	0.77%	4	-3.7%	-0.31%	-1.44%	43%	49
GDXJ	Junior Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-5.6%	-0.48%	13.9%	1.09%	5.9%	0.48%	38.7%	2.76%	243.7%	10.84%	4	-5.6%	-0.48%	-1.61%	45%	49
SIL	Silver Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-12.7%	-1.13%	26.7%	1.99%	-0.0%	-0.00%	39.1%	2.79%	189.0%	9.25%	4	-12.7%	-1.13%	-2.14%	34%	47
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Reflation	-13.6%	-1.21%	37.4%	2.68%	0.5%	0.04%	32.7%	2.39%	270.9%	11.54%	4	-13.6%	-1.21%	-2.58%	35%	40

Sleeve ETF table

International Equity

Top current-quad candidate: DXJ at 16.3% annualized, 0.14% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
DXJ	Japan Hedged Equity	Reflation	16.3%	1.26%	23.5%	1.78%	-1.2%	-0.10%	14.1%	1.11%	6.7%	0.54%	4	16.3%	1.26%	0.14%	67%	49
INDA	India	Reflation	4.2%	0.35%	16.3%	1.26%	3.4%	0.28%	2.3%	0.19%	-15.1%	-1.36%	4	4.2%	0.35%	-0.84%	61%	41
EZU	Eurozone	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.4%	0.20%	18.3%	1.41%	-8.1%	-0.70%	18.4%	1.41%	2.3%	0.19%	4	2.4%	0.20%	-0.93%	57%	49
EEM	Emerging Markets	Reflation	3.0%	0.24%	21.1%	1.61%	-9.4%	-0.82%	8.8%	0.71%	3.5%	0.29%	4	3.0%	0.24%	-0.89%	55%	49
EWU	United Kingdom	Reflation	2.3%	0.19%	16.8%	1.30%	1.0%	0.08%	8.3%	0.66%	-24.4%	-2.30%	4	2.3%	0.19%	-0.94%	51%	49
FXI	China Large Cap	Reflation	2.7%	0.22%	10.9%	0.86%	-3.3%	-0.28%	4.0%	0.33%	-3.5%	-0.29%	4	2.7%	0.22%	-0.90%	49%	49
EWZ	Brazil	Reflation	1.1%	0.09%	20.6%	1.58%	-9.9%	-0.86%	5.6%	0.45%	-39.9%	-4.16%	4	1.1%	0.09%	-1.03%	51%	49
EWA	Australia	Reflation	-5.0%	-0.42%	22.5%	1.71%	-2.6%	-0.22%	14.2%	1.11%	3.6%	0.29%	4	-5.0%	-0.42%	-1.55%	53%	49

Sleeve ETF table

Commodities / Crypto / USD

Top current-quad candidate: BTC-USD at 202.6% annualized, 8.37% excess.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Goldilocks	202.6%	9.67%	142.2%	7.65%	17.7%	1.37%	54.1%	3.67%	56.5%	3.80%	4	202.6%	9.67%	8.37%	70%	30
PALL	Palladium	Reflation	11.5%	0.91%	17.1%	1.33%	11.5%	0.91%	3.6%	0.30%	-55.0%	-6.44%	4	11.5%	0.91%	-0.21%	59%	49
PLTM	Platinum	Disinflationary Slowdown	7.9%	0.64%	3.2%	0.26%	-8.7%	-0.76%	31.4%	2.30%	-5.9%	-0.51%	4	7.9%	0.64%	-0.80%	57%	23
UUP	US Dollar	Goldilocks	5.5%	0.45%	1.2%	0.10%	0.9%	0.07%	2.6%	0.21%	-2.3%	-0.20%	4	5.5%	0.45%	-0.68%	53%	49
GLD	Gold	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.7%	0.30%	4.1%	0.34%	13.4%	1.05%	19.8%	1.52%	44.1%	3.09%	4	3.7%	0.30%	-0.82%	53%	49
DBA	Agriculture	Inflation / Stag.	4.7%	0.39%	6.2%	0.50%	7.1%	0.57%	-6.6%	-0.57%	-30.1%	-2.94%	4	4.7%	0.39%	-0.74%	45%	49
USO	Oil	Reflation	3.2%	0.26%	34.4%	2.49%	10.6%	0.84%	-26.6%	-2.55%	-83.0%	-13.73%	4	3.2%	0.26%	-0.86%	45%	49
URA	Uranium	Disinflationary Slowdown	1.4%	0.11%	0.6%	0.05%	-17.4%	-1.58%	24.5%	1.84%	59.4%	3.96%	4	1.4%	0.11%	-1.11%	50%	44
DBB	Base Metals	Reflation	-3.7%	-0.31%	15.9%	1.23%	0.5%	0.05%	2.9%	0.24%	0.4%	0.03%	4	-3.7%	-0.31%	-1.44%	51%	49
DBC	Broad Commodities	Reflation	-1.6%	-0.13%	18.4%	1.42%	12.6%	0.99%	-8.4%	-0.73%	-21.2%	-1.97%	4	-1.6%	-0.13%	-1.26%	43%	49
CPER	Copper	Reflation	-4.1%	-0.35%	15.8%	1.23%	-1.7%	-0.14%	7.1%	0.57%	30.4%	2.24%	4	-4.1%	-0.35%	-1.61%	49%	43
SLV	Silver	Disinflationary Slowdown	-8.6%	-0.75%	28.6%	2.12%	-2.8%	-0.24%	32.9%	2.40%	44.4%	3.11%	4	-8.6%	-0.75%	-1.88%	37%	49

Master ETF Regime Matrix

Full ETF universe in one table. Use this after the sleeve tables when you need to compare every ticker across all primary regimes and the separate downside-confirmed overlay.

Portfolio translation: this table is best for cross-checking whether an ETF is only a current-regime trade or has broader regime durability. The overlay columns now use every ETF's available confirmed-downside history. Do not read a high annualized number without checking the average monthly return, hit rate, and observation count.

Ticker	ETF Name	Best Primary Quad	Goldilocks Ann	Goldilocks Avg Mo	Reflation Ann	Reflation Avg Mo	Inflation / Stag. Ann	Inflation / Stag. Avg Mo	Disinflationary Slowdown Ann	Disinflationary Slowdown Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Ann	Downside Confirmed Avg Mo	Downside Confirmed Obs	Current Ann	Current Avg Mo	Current Excess	Hit Rate	Obs
BTC-USD	Bitcoin	Goldilocks	202.6%	9.67%	142.2%	7.65%	17.7%	1.37%	54.1%	3.67%	56.5%	3.80%	4	202.6%	9.67%	8.37%	70%	30
CRAK	Oil Refiners	Goldilocks	28.9%	2.14%	17.5%	1.35%	4.2%	0.34%	18.7%	1.44%	1.7%	0.14%	4	28.9%	2.14%	0.89%	69%	29
XLC	Communication Services	Goldilocks	28.7%	2.12%	22.7%	1.72%	—	—	20.9%	1.59%	29.6%	2.18%	4	28.7%	2.12%	0.69%	78%	23
ARKK	Speculative Innovation	Reflation	31.0%	2.27%	41.4%	2.93%	-34.3%	-3.45%	39.8%	2.83%	181.8%	9.02%	4	31.0%	2.27%	1.02%	62%	29
IBB	Biotech Large Cap	Disinflationary Slowdown	25.2%	1.89%	17.1%	1.33%	-12.9%	-1.14%	27.5%	2.04%	79.4%	4.99%	4	25.2%	1.89%	0.76%	65%	49
PNQI	Internet	Disinflationary Slowdown	24.7%	1.86%	25.1%	1.88%	-13.9%	-1.24%	28.5%	2.11%	120.0%	6.79%	4	24.7%	1.86%	0.73%	61%	49
QQQ	Nasdaq 100	Reflation	21.9%	1.67%	32.6%	2.38%	-5.0%	-0.43%	29.1%	2.15%	-14.1%	-1.26%	27	21.9%	1.67%	0.54%	65%	49
XBI	Biotech	Disinflationary Slowdown	25.9%	1.94%	20.1%	1.54%	-17.1%	-1.55%	39.1%	2.79%	115.6%	6.61%	4	25.9%	1.94%	0.81%	57%	49
IGV	Software	Disinflationary Slowdown	23.9%	1.80%	27.1%	2.02%	-10.8%	-0.94%	27.9%	2.08%	90.4%	5.51%	4	23.9%	1.80%	0.67%	61%	49
SMH	Semiconductors	Reflation	22.7%	1.72%	55.0%	3.72%	-9.0%	-0.78%	47.7%	3.31%	-19.6%	-1.81%	27	22.7%	1.72%	0.59%	61%	49
OEF	S&P 100	Reflation	16.7%	1.30%	26.6%	1.99%	-5.9%	-0.50%	20.9%	1.59%	31.7%	2.32%	4	16.7%	1.30%	0.17%	73%	49
XLK	Technology	Reflation	21.4%	1.63%	34.5%	2.50%	-4.2%	-0.35%	31.7%	2.32%	-16.6%	-1.50%	27	21.4%	1.63%	0.50%	63%	49
AIQ	Artificial Intelligence	Reflation	30.2%	2.22%	38.3%	2.74%	-22.5%	-2.10%	38.2%	2.73%	85.0%	5.26%	4	30.2%	2.22%	0.79%	61%	23
XLG	S&P Top 50	Reflation	17.4%	1.35%	25.6%	1.92%	-5.9%	-0.50%	21.7%	1.65%	40.7%	2.88%	4	17.4%	1.35%	0.22%	69%	49
URNM	Uranium Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	34.4%	2.49%	14.7%	1.15%	—	—	86.8%	5.34%	117.0%	6.67%	4	34.4%	2.49%	1.10%	53%	19
CLOU	Cloud Computing	Disinflationary Slowdown	23.8%	1.79%	23.2%	1.76%	—	—	32.8%	2.40%	149.3%	7.91%	4	23.8%	1.79%	0.48%	68%	22
SPY	S&P 500	Reflation	14.4%	1.13%	26.7%	1.99%	-5.1%	-0.43%	20.2%	1.55%	-17.7%	-1.61%	27	14.4%	1.13%	0.00%	73%	49
QUAL	Quality Factor	Reflation	16.4%	1.28%	23.2%	1.75%	-6.7%	-0.57%	19.6%	1.50%	22.0%	1.67%	4	16.4%	1.28%	-0.06%	72%	36
IHE	Pharmaceuticals	Reflation	16.6%	1.29%	17.6%	1.36%	-0.9%	-0.08%	16.7%	1.30%	26.7%	1.99%	4	16.6%	1.29%	0.16%	67%	49
IWF	Russell 1000 Growth	Reflation	17.3%	1.34%	28.5%	2.11%	-6.5%	-0.55%	25.3%	1.90%	-15.2%	-1.37%	27	17.3%	1.34%	0.21%	65%	49
DXJ	Japan Hedged Equity	Reflation	16.3%	1.26%	23.5%	1.78%	-1.2%	-0.10%	14.1%	1.11%	6.7%	0.54%	4	16.3%	1.26%	0.14%	67%	49
QTUM	Quantum Computing	Reflation	21.8%	1.65%	70.2%	4.53%	—	—	37.5%	2.69%	56.9%	3.83%	4	21.8%	1.65%	0.22%	70%	23
XLY	Consumer Discretionary	Reflation	15.7%	1.22%	25.9%	1.94%	-5.2%	-0.45%	22.1%	1.67%	-6.4%	-0.55%	27	15.7%	1.22%	0.09%	63%	49
ITA	Aerospace & Defense	Reflation	14.7%	1.15%	24.2%	1.82%	0.2%	0.02%	23.4%	1.77%	-34.2%	-3.42%	4	14.7%	1.15%	0.02%	65%	49
ITB	Home Construction	Disinflationary Slowdown	17.1%	1.33%	29.6%	2.18%	-15.4%	-1.38%	31.7%	2.32%	49.8%	3.42%	4	17.1%	1.33%	0.20%	59%	49
IAK	Insurance	Reflation	13.3%	1.05%	26.8%	2.00%	-0.4%	-0.04%	11.2%	0.89%	-26.8%	-2.57%	4	13.3%	1.05%	-0.08%	67%	49
BUG	Cybersecurity	Reflation	24.8%	1.86%	55.4%	3.74%	—	—	15.2%	1.19%	104.8%	6.15%	4	24.8%	1.86%	0.47%	58%	19
XLV	Health Care	Reflation	13.2%	1.04%	19.4%	1.49%	-0.5%	-0.04%	17.8%	1.37%	-11.1%	-0.98%	27	13.2%	1.04%	-0.09%	67%	49
NXTG	Next-Gen Connectivity	Reflation	14.6%	1.14%	28.7%	2.13%	-7.1%	-0.61%	15.6%	1.22%	27.2%	2.02%	4	14.6%	1.14%	-0.08%	66%	44
CWB	Convertible Bonds	Reflation	9.3%	0.74%	21.8%	1.66%	-5.1%	-0.43%	13.4%	1.05%	42.4%	2.99%	4	9.3%	0.74%	-0.38%	71%	49
MTUM	Momentum Factor	Reflation	12.3%	0.97%	31.7%	2.32%	-6.3%	-0.54%	23.5%	1.77%	35.9%	2.59%	4	12.3%	0.97%	-0.32%	66%	38
IYG	Financial Services	Reflation	12.7%	1.00%	32.8%	2.39%	-9.2%	-0.80%	13.4%	1.05%	-15.8%	-1.42%	4	12.7%	1.00%	-0.13%	61%	49
BKLN	Senior Loans	Reflation	5.6%	0.45%	6.4%	0.52%	-4.0%	-0.34%	5.5%	0.45%	-3.8%	-0.32%	4	5.6%	0.45%	-0.77%	80%	44
SPXT	S&P 500 Ex-Technology	Reflation	10.5%	0.84%	21.2%	1.61%	-6.8%	-0.59%	17.4%	1.35%	11.8%	0.93%	4	10.5%	0.84%	-0.42%	69%	29
XLF	Financials	Reflation	12.5%	0.99%	32.1%	2.35%	-9.3%	-0.81%	11.9%	0.94%	-24.8%	-2.34%	4	12.5%	0.99%	-0.14%	59%	49
XTL	Telecom	Reflation	11.2%	0.89%	28.7%	2.12%	-12.9%	-1.14%	17.7%	1.37%	26.0%	1.94%	4	11.2%	0.89%	-0.34%	64%	44
GRID	Smart Grid Infrastructure	Reflation	11.9%	0.94%	26.5%	1.98%	-1.8%	-0.15%	17.1%	1.33%	17.2%	1.33%	4	11.9%	0.94%	-0.18%	59%	49
XLI	Industrials	Reflation	11.8%	0.93%	27.6%	2.05%	-6.9%	-0.59%	22.2%	1.69%	-7.1%	-0.61%	4	11.8%	0.93%	-0.20%	59%	49
PALL	Palladium	Reflation	11.5%	0.91%	17.1%	1.33%	11.5%	0.91%	3.6%	0.30%	-55.0%	-6.44%	4	11.5%	0.91%	-0.21%	59%	49
IAI	Broker-Dealers	Reflation	11.5%	0.91%	37.3%	2.68%	-6.9%	-0.60%	16.7%	1.29%	-4.6%	-0.39%	4	11.5%	0.91%	-0.22%	59%	49
XTN	Transportation	Reflation	12.9%	1.02%	25.8%	1.93%	-11.4%	-1.00%	18.0%	1.39%	-1.5%	-0.13%	4	12.9%	1.02%	-0.21%	57%	44
RSP	S&P 500 Equal Weight	Reflation	8.9%	0.72%	26.6%	1.99%	-4.1%	-0.35%	18.1%	1.39%	-27.8%	-2.68%	16	8.9%	0.72%	-0.41%	63%	49
IWD	Russell 1000 Value	Reflation	10.4%	0.83%	25.9%	1.94%	-5.0%	-0.43%	14.6%	1.14%	-20.7%	-1.92%	27	10.4%	0.83%	-0.30%	59%	49
ROBO	Robotics & Automation	Reflation	10.9%	0.87%	24.9%	1.87%	-20.9%	-1.94%	22.0%	1.67%	54.7%	3.70%	4	10.9%	0.87%	-0.46%	61%	36
HYG	High Yield Credit	Reflation	5.5%	0.45%	9.2%	0.73%	-3.1%	-0.26%	7.6%	0.61%	-10.4%	-0.91%	16	5.5%	0.45%	-0.68%	69%	49
XLU	Utilities	Reflation	8.1%	0.65%	19.8%	1.51%	1.6%	0.14%	10.0%	0.80%	-16.8%	-1.52%	27	8.1%	0.65%	-0.48%	63%	49
PEJ	Leisure & Entertainment	Reflation	9.0%	0.72%	27.6%	2.05%	-5.1%	-0.43%	13.7%	1.07%	-34.1%	-3.41%	4	9.0%	0.72%	-0.41%	61%	49
XHB	Homebuilders	Disinflationary Slowdown	12.4%	0.98%	29.7%	2.19%	-14.4%	-1.29%	30.6%	2.25%	44.5%	3.12%	4	12.4%	0.98%	-0.15%	53%	49
VO	Mid-Cap Blend	Reflation	9.6%	0.77%	27.4%	2.04%	-7.2%	-0.62%	18.6%	1.43%	16.5%	1.28%	4	9.6%	0.77%	-0.36%	59%	49
SPHB	High Beta	Reflation	11.5%	0.91%	33.3%	2.43%	-6.1%	-0.52%	23.8%	1.80%	24.2%	1.82%	4	11.5%	0.91%	-0.32%	57%	44
HERO	Video Games & Esports	Disinflationary Slowdown	12.4%	0.98%	15.6%	1.21%	—	—	30.1%	2.21%	168.2%	8.57%	4	12.4%	0.98%	-0.41%	58%	19
PINK	Health Care Leaders	Disinflationary Slowdown	12.1%	0.95%	—	—	—	—	24.0%	1.81%	—	—	â€”	12.1%	0.95%	-0.44%	58%	19
IWM	Russell 2000	Reflation	9.8%	0.79%	27.8%	2.07%	-8.5%	-0.74%	16.9%	1.31%	-18.7%	-1.71%	27	9.8%	0.79%	-0.34%	55%	49
IHF	Health Care Providers	Reflation	10.2%	0.82%	28.9%	2.14%	-2.1%	-0.17%	11.7%	0.93%	30.3%	2.23%	4	10.2%	0.82%	-0.31%	53%	49
SHY	1-3 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.1%	0.17%	0.7%	0.06%	0.2%	0.02%	2.1%	0.17%	5.9%	0.48%	18	2.1%	0.17%	-0.96%	71%	49
PFF	Preferred Stock	Reflation	4.9%	0.40%	9.8%	0.78%	-7.0%	-0.60%	8.6%	0.69%	-4.4%	-0.38%	4	4.9%	0.40%	-0.73%	63%	49
SOCL	Social Media	Disinflationary Slowdown	10.0%	0.79%	20.7%	1.58%	-15.1%	-1.36%	22.9%	1.73%	136.9%	7.45%	4	10.0%	0.79%	-0.47%	53%	43
SPLV	Low Volatility	Reflation	7.1%	0.57%	20.5%	1.57%	-2.3%	-0.20%	11.2%	0.89%	-17.8%	-1.63%	4	7.1%	0.57%	-0.65%	59%	44
LQD	Investment Grade Credit	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.5%	0.28%	5.0%	0.41%	-5.2%	-0.44%	9.5%	0.76%	7.3%	0.59%	18	3.5%	0.28%	-0.84%	65%	49
PSP	Private Equity	Reflation	7.7%	0.62%	22.9%	1.73%	-11.7%	-1.03%	16.4%	1.28%	-2.0%	-0.17%	4	7.7%	0.62%	-0.51%	55%	49
CARZ	Global Autos	Reflation	9.5%	0.76%	36.6%	2.63%	-12.9%	-1.15%	15.2%	1.18%	14.6%	1.14%	4	9.5%	0.76%	-0.47%	52%	44
KRE	Regional Banks	Reflation	8.3%	0.67%	31.8%	2.33%	-4.9%	-0.42%	9.5%	0.76%	-30.8%	-3.02%	4	8.3%	0.67%	-0.46%	53%	49
IHI	Medical Devices	Reflation	7.0%	0.57%	28.3%	2.10%	-7.7%	-0.67%	18.2%	1.40%	36.6%	2.63%	4	7.0%	0.57%	-0.56%	55%	49
MBB	Mortgage-Backed Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.0%	0.17%	1.6%	0.14%	-1.3%	-0.11%	4.2%	0.34%	5.9%	0.48%	4	2.0%	0.17%	-0.96%	65%	49
INDA	India	Reflation	4.2%	0.35%	16.3%	1.26%	3.4%	0.28%	2.3%	0.19%	-15.1%	-1.36%	4	4.2%	0.35%	-0.84%	61%	41
PLTM	Platinum	Disinflationary Slowdown	7.9%	0.64%	3.2%	0.26%	-8.7%	-0.76%	31.4%	2.30%	-5.9%	-0.51%	4	7.9%	0.64%	-0.80%	57%	23
IEF	7-10 Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.1%	0.26%	0.3%	0.02%	0.1%	0.01%	6.1%	0.50%	18.5%	1.42%	18	3.1%	0.26%	-0.87%	61%	49
XLP	Consumer Staples	Reflation	5.5%	0.45%	18.7%	1.44%	0.3%	0.02%	14.4%	1.13%	-7.0%	-0.60%	27	5.5%	0.45%	-0.68%	55%	49
SPHD	High Dividend Low Vol	Reflation	5.8%	0.47%	20.8%	1.59%	0.3%	0.03%	9.4%	0.75%	-24.6%	-2.33%	4	5.8%	0.47%	-0.89%	57%	40
UUP	US Dollar	Goldilocks	5.5%	0.45%	1.2%	0.10%	0.9%	0.07%	2.6%	0.21%	-2.3%	-0.20%	4	5.5%	0.45%	-0.68%	53%	49
XLB	Materials	Reflation	5.3%	0.44%	21.0%	1.60%	-1.1%	-0.09%	16.5%	1.28%	35.5%	2.56%	4	5.3%	0.44%	-0.69%	53%	49
AGG	Aggregate Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.6%	0.21%	2.2%	0.18%	-1.7%	-0.15%	5.2%	0.43%	8.1%	0.65%	16	2.6%	0.21%	-0.92%	59%	49
EMB	EM USD Bonds	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.5%	0.21%	8.0%	0.64%	-5.0%	-0.43%	10.0%	0.80%	-3.9%	-0.33%	4	2.5%	0.21%	-0.92%	59%	49
WOOD	Timber & Forestry	Reflation	5.0%	0.41%	22.1%	1.68%	-9.0%	-0.78%	6.9%	0.56%	-1.9%	-0.16%	4	5.0%	0.41%	-0.72%	53%	49
UFO	Space Economy	Reflation	6.3%	0.51%	39.8%	2.83%	—	—	27.7%	2.06%	-29.2%	-2.84%	4	6.3%	0.51%	-0.80%	50%	22
TLT	20+ Year Treasury	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.4%	0.28%	2.0%	0.16%	-6.5%	-0.56%	10.6%	0.85%	29.2%	2.16%	18	3.4%	0.28%	-0.85%	55%	49
EZU	Eurozone	Disinflationary Slowdown	2.4%	0.20%	18.3%	1.41%	-8.1%	-0.70%	18.4%	1.41%	2.3%	0.19%	4	2.4%	0.20%	-0.93%	57%	49
EEM	Emerging Markets	Reflation	3.0%	0.24%	21.1%	1.61%	-9.4%	-0.82%	8.8%	0.71%	3.5%	0.29%	4	3.0%	0.24%	-0.89%	55%	49
GLD	Gold	Disinflationary Slowdown	3.7%	0.30%	4.1%	0.34%	13.4%	1.05%	19.8%	1.52%	44.1%	3.09%	4	3.7%	0.30%	-0.82%	53%	49
PAVE	Infrastructure	Disinflationary Slowdown	8.3%	0.67%	28.0%	2.08%	-4.6%	-0.39%	33.9%	2.46%	5.5%	0.45%	4	8.3%	0.67%	-0.74%	44%	27
TIP	TIPS	Reflation	0.5%	0.05%	4.5%	0.37%	1.5%	0.13%	3.6%	0.29%	4.2%	0.34%	16	0.5%	0.05%	-1.08%	59%	49
JETS	Airlines	Reflation	4.4%	0.36%	20.0%	1.53%	-25.6%	-2.43%	18.9%	1.45%	-54.7%	-6.39%	4	4.4%	0.36%	-0.89%	48%	29
EWU	United Kingdom	Reflation	2.3%	0.19%	16.8%	1.30%	1.0%	0.08%	8.3%	0.66%	-24.4%	-2.30%	4	2.3%	0.19%	-0.94%	51%	49
DBA	Agriculture	Inflation / Stag.	4.7%	0.39%	6.2%	0.50%	7.1%	0.57%	-6.6%	-0.57%	-30.1%	-2.94%	4	4.7%	0.39%	-0.74%	45%	49
FXI	China Large Cap	Reflation	2.7%	0.22%	10.9%	0.86%	-3.3%	-0.28%	4.0%	0.33%	-3.5%	-0.29%	4	2.7%	0.22%	-0.90%	49%	49
XLE	Energy	Reflation	0.9%	0.07%	21.8%	1.66%	19.5%	1.49%	8.5%	0.68%	-7.8%	-0.68%	4	0.9%	0.07%	-1.06%	53%	49
XLRE	Real Estate	Reflation	-1.7%	-0.14%	19.9%	1.52%	-4.4%	-0.37%	10.2%	0.81%	-6.7%	-0.58%	4	-1.7%	-0.14%	-1.40%	59%	29
EWZ	Brazil	Reflation	1.1%	0.09%	20.6%	1.58%	-9.9%	-0.86%	5.6%	0.45%	-39.9%	-4.16%	4	1.1%	0.09%	-1.03%	51%	49
USO	Oil	Reflation	3.2%	0.26%	34.4%	2.49%	10.6%	0.84%	-26.6%	-2.55%	-83.0%	-13.73%	4	3.2%	0.26%	-0.86%	45%	49
URA	Uranium	Disinflationary Slowdown	1.4%	0.11%	0.6%	0.05%	-17.4%	-1.58%	24.5%	1.84%	59.4%	3.96%	4	1.4%	0.11%	-1.11%	50%	44
GSG	Broad Commodities	Reflation	-0.0%	-0.00%	19.3%	1.48%	11.3%	0.89%	-13.6%	-1.21%	-42.1%	-4.45%	4	-0.0%	-0.00%	-1.13%	51%	49
EMLC	EM Local Currency Bonds	Reflation	-1.6%	-0.13%	7.3%	0.59%	-6.5%	-0.56%	3.7%	0.30%	-7.2%	-0.62%	4	-1.6%	-0.13%	-1.36%	57%	44
STIP	Short-Term TIPS	Reflation	0.9%	0.08%	4.1%	0.34%	1.8%	0.15%	1.8%	0.15%	4.2%	0.34%	4	0.9%	0.08%	-1.15%	50%	44
GDX	Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-0.4%	-0.03%	5.8%	0.47%	7.0%	0.56%	41.2%	2.92%	223.8%	10.29%	4	-0.4%	-0.03%	-1.16%	49%	49
HAP	Natural Resources	Reflation	-1.1%	-0.09%	20.4%	1.56%	5.6%	0.46%	11.1%	0.88%	3.6%	0.30%	4	-1.1%	-0.09%	-1.22%	49%	49
DBB	Base Metals	Reflation	-3.7%	-0.31%	15.9%	1.23%	0.5%	0.05%	2.9%	0.24%	0.4%	0.03%	4	-3.7%	-0.31%	-1.44%	51%	49
COPX	Copper Miners	Reflation	-1.5%	-0.13%	28.9%	2.14%	8.1%	0.65%	19.0%	1.46%	76.9%	4.87%	4	-1.5%	-0.13%	-1.14%	43%	47
EWA	Australia	Reflation	-5.0%	-0.42%	22.5%	1.71%	-2.6%	-0.22%	14.2%	1.11%	3.6%	0.29%	4	-5.0%	-0.42%	-1.55%	53%	49
DBC	Broad Commodities	Reflation	-1.6%	-0.13%	18.4%	1.42%	12.6%	0.99%	-8.4%	-0.73%	-21.2%	-1.97%	4	-1.6%	-0.13%	-1.26%	43%	49
CPER	Copper	Reflation	-4.1%	-0.35%	15.8%	1.23%	-1.7%	-0.14%	7.1%	0.57%	30.4%	2.24%	4	-4.1%	-0.35%	-1.61%	49%	43
XME	Metals & Mining	Reflation	-3.7%	-0.31%	34.0%	2.47%	1.1%	0.09%	13.1%	1.03%	9.7%	0.77%	4	-3.7%	-0.31%	-1.44%	43%	49
GDXJ	Junior Gold Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-5.6%	-0.48%	13.9%	1.09%	5.9%	0.48%	38.7%	2.76%	243.7%	10.84%	4	-5.6%	-0.48%	-1.61%	45%	49
XOP	Oil & Gas Exploration	Reflation	-9.5%	-0.83%	31.5%	2.31%	17.2%	1.33%	1.6%	0.13%	59.7%	3.98%	4	-9.5%	-0.83%	-1.95%	47%	49
SLV	Silver	Disinflationary Slowdown	-8.6%	-0.75%	28.6%	2.12%	-2.8%	-0.24%	32.9%	2.40%	44.4%	3.11%	4	-8.6%	-0.75%	-1.88%	37%	49
XES	Oil & Gas Equipment	Reflation	-11.7%	-1.03%	23.6%	1.78%	14.3%	1.12%	-6.0%	-0.51%	-36.6%	-3.73%	4	-11.7%	-1.03%	-2.16%	43%	49
OIH	Oil Services	Reflation	-12.7%	-1.13%	22.0%	1.67%	13.8%	1.08%	0.9%	0.08%	-21.3%	-1.97%	4	-12.7%	-1.13%	-2.26%	45%	49
SIL	Silver Miners	Disinflationary Slowdown	-12.7%	-1.13%	26.7%	1.99%	-0.0%	-0.00%	39.1%	2.79%	189.0%	9.25%	4	-12.7%	-1.13%	-2.14%	34%	47
SILJ	Junior Silver Miners	Reflation	-13.6%	-1.21%	37.4%	2.68%	0.5%	0.04%	32.7%	2.39%	270.9%	11.54%	4	-13.6%	-1.21%	-2.58%	35%	40
FCG	Natural Gas Producers	Reflation	-20.1%	-1.85%	26.2%	1.96%	14.1%	1.11%	-2.7%	-0.23%	200.5%	9.60%	4	-20.1%	-1.85%	-2.98%	41%	49

Audit Tables

These are traceability tables. They stay collapsed by default so the primary read is not buried under raw audit detail.

Monthly Quad Audit

The last 24 primary four-state labels with the model inputs behind each point. The overlay column records whether the separate downside filter confirmed contraction risk; it does not change the macro quadrant.

Month	Quad	Downside Overlay	Growth Impulse	Inflation Impulse	Growth Level	Inflation Pressure	Read
09/2026	Goldilocks	Not confirmed	+1.19	-5.94	55.1	50.2	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
08/2026	Goldilocks	Not confirmed	+2.06	-4.15	57.2	49.6	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
07/2026	Goldilocks	Not confirmed	+2.25	-0.57	56.2	49.3	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
06/2026	Reflation	Not confirmed	+1.71	+3.53	55.3	47.2	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
05/2026	Reflation	Not confirmed	+1.75	+7.00	53.7	60.0	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
04/2026	Reflation	Not confirmed	+1.51	+5.26	53.9	63.5	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
03/2026	Reflation	Not confirmed	+0.85	+2.45	51.3	51.9	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
02/2026	Reflation	Not confirmed	+0.66	+0.52	51.2	46.9	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
01/2026	Disinflationary Slowdown	Not confirmed	-0.37	-0.94	50.9	46.2	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation
12/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	Not confirmed	-1.30	-1.79	49.6	49.3	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation
11/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	Not confirmed	-0.76	-3.11	49.5	45.1	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation
10/2025	Goldilocks	Not confirmed	-0.16	-2.16	49.6	43.9	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
09/2025	Goldilocks	Not confirmed	+0.72	+0.25	49.8	47.1	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
08/2025	Goldilocks	Not confirmed	+1.21	-0.17	52.1	52.2	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling
07/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	Not confirmed	+0.06	-0.83	52.2	49.4	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation
06/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	Not confirmed	-1.54	-2.28	50.0	52.1	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation
05/2025	Disinflationary Slowdown	Not confirmed	-2.02	-1.51	50.1	47.6	Growth and inflation impulses falling; check downside confirmation
04/2025	Inflation/Stagflation	Not confirmed	-1.30	+0.96	49.0	50.7	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising
03/2025	Inflation/Stagflation	Not confirmed	-0.32	+1.12	50.5	51.6	Growth falling, inflation pressure rising
02/2025	Reflation	Not confirmed	+0.94	+2.11	51.4	53.2	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
01/2025	Reflation	Not confirmed	+0.92	+1.58	54.9	55.6	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
12/2024	Reflation	Not confirmed	+0.50	+0.92	52.3	48.7	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
11/2024	Reflation	Not confirmed	+1.02	+0.89	52.4	49.7	Growth rising, inflation pressure rising
10/2024	Goldilocks	Not confirmed	+1.39	-0.62	50.8	50.6	Growth rising, inflation pressure falling

Full Group Backtest Table

This is the full sleeve-level audit by state. Downside Confirmed uses every ETF's available price overlap, with long liquid-proxy history extending overlapping instruments where possible.

Quad	Group	ETF Count	Obs	Avg Return	Annualized Return	Excess vs SPY	Hit Rate	Worst Month	Rank Score
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Rates / Credit	14	18	0.75%	9.4%	2.95%	67%	-4.34%	1.47
Reflation	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	62	2.43%	33.4%	0.44%	66%	-6.16%	1.23
Reflation	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	55	1.93%	25.8%	0.03%	78%	-5.43%	1.20
Reflation	Core Index Beta	6	62	2.05%	27.6%	0.06%	76%	-4.96%	1.19
Reflation	Style / Market Structure	6	62	1.99%	26.7%	0.00%	77%	-5.36%	1.18
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Metals / Miners	10	4	4.99%	79.4%	3.25%	75%	-19.57%	1.17
Reflation	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	62	1.96%	26.2%	-0.03%	74%	-7.16%	1.08
Disinflationary Slowdown	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	53	2.02%	27.1%	0.47%	62%	-11.33%	1.05
Reflation	Cyclical Sectors	7	62	1.96%	26.2%	-0.03%	71%	-6.99%	1.00
Reflation	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	62	1.98%	26.5%	-0.01%	68%	-6.90%	0.93
Reflation	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	62	2.00%	26.8%	0.01%	66%	-7.78%	0.91
Goldilocks	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	49	1.47%	19.1%	0.34%	63%	-9.68%	0.87
Disinflationary Slowdown	Style / Market Structure	6	53	1.51%	19.6%	-0.04%	70%	-14.68%	0.85
Goldilocks	Core Index Beta	6	49	1.16%	14.8%	0.03%	71%	-7.87%	0.84
Disinflationary Slowdown	Core Index Beta	6	53	1.61%	21.1%	0.06%	66%	-13.15%	0.83
Goldilocks	Style / Market Structure	6	49	1.09%	13.9%	-0.04%	71%	-7.72%	0.79
Disinflationary Slowdown	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	51	1.40%	18.2%	-0.11%	69%	-16.67%	0.76
Reflation	Defensive Sectors	4	62	1.51%	19.6%	-0.48%	74%	-6.92%	0.74
Disinflationary Slowdown	Cyclical Sectors	7	53	1.39%	18.1%	-0.15%	66%	-20.77%	0.67
Goldilocks	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	49	1.07%	13.7%	-0.05%	65%	-8.72%	0.62
Disinflationary Slowdown	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	53	1.37%	17.8%	-0.17%	64%	-15.85%	0.61
Disinflationary Slowdown	Metals / Miners	10	53	1.59%	20.8%	0.04%	57%	-19.57%	0.59
Inflation/Stagflation	Metals / Miners	10	36	0.38%	4.7%	0.82%	47%	-15.42%	0.43
Goldilocks	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	44	0.79%	9.9%	-0.44%	68%	-7.36%	0.43
Disinflationary Slowdown	Defensive Sectors	4	53	1.07%	13.6%	-0.48%	66%	-8.78%	0.43
Reflation	International Equity	8	62	1.45%	18.9%	-0.54%	63%	-6.69%	0.42
Reflation	Metals / Miners	10	62	1.70%	22.4%	-0.29%	55%	-15.86%	0.40
Goldilocks	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	49	0.97%	12.3%	-0.16%	59%	-11.04%	0.39
Goldilocks	Cyclical Sectors	7	49	0.86%	10.8%	-0.27%	61%	-9.36%	0.36
Inflation/Stagflation	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	36	-0.03%	-0.3%	0.41%	56%	-10.30%	0.34
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	14	4	1.50%	19.6%	-0.24%	75%	-29.47%	0.29
Inflation/Stagflation	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	36	0.27%	3.3%	0.70%	44%	-9.88%	0.28
Reflation	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	62	1.48%	19.2%	-0.51%	56%	-11.18%	0.27
Disinflationary Slowdown	Thematic / Speculative Growth	3	53	0.96%	12.2%	-0.58%	62%	-30.82%	0.25
Goldilocks	Defensive Sectors	4	49	0.64%	8.0%	-0.49%	61%	-5.55%	0.20
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	4	1.09%	13.9%	-0.65%	75%	-15.85%	0.19
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Cyclical Sectors	7	27	-0.89%	-10.2%	0.72%	52%	-20.75%	0.16
Inflation/Stagflation	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	36	-0.24%	-2.8%	0.20%	53%	-13.95%	0.11
Inflation/Stagflation	Rates / Credit	14	36	-0.25%	-3.0%	0.18%	53%	-4.41%	0.10
Disinflationary Slowdown	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	53	1.04%	13.3%	-0.50%	53%	-29.47%	0.08
Inflation/Stagflation	Cyclical Sectors	7	36	-0.39%	-4.5%	0.05%	56%	-11.67%	0.07
Disinflationary Slowdown	International Equity	8	53	0.76%	9.5%	-0.79%	60%	-19.68%	0.06
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Defensive Sectors	4	27	-1.08%	-12.2%	0.54%	52%	-12.36%	0.04
Goldilocks	Rates / Credit	14	49	0.28%	3.4%	-0.85%	65%	-2.55%	0.03
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	4	0.43%	5.2%	-1.31%	75%	-16.67%	0.03
Inflation/Stagflation	Defensive Sectors	4	36	-0.00%	-0.0%	0.43%	42%	-7.72%	0.01
Inflation/Stagflation	International Equity	8	36	-0.37%	-4.4%	0.06%	53%	-7.85%	0.00
Disinflationary Slowdown	Rates / Credit	14	53	0.53%	6.6%	-1.01%	64%	-4.92%	-0.02
Goldilocks	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	49	0.55%	6.8%	-0.58%	55%	-9.68%	-0.02
Disinflationary Slowdown	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	53	0.67%	8.3%	-0.88%	58%	-15.88%	-0.06
Goldilocks	International Equity	8	49	0.27%	3.3%	-0.85%	61%	-11.86%	-0.08
Reflation	Rates / Credit	14	62	0.47%	5.8%	-1.52%	69%	-2.67%	-0.16
Inflation/Stagflation	Factors / Risk Appetite	5	34	-0.51%	-5.9%	0.03%	47%	-8.74%	-0.18
Inflation/Stagflation	Core Index Beta	6	36	-0.49%	-5.8%	-0.06%	47%	-9.91%	-0.22
Inflation/Stagflation	Style / Market Structure	6	36	-0.52%	-6.0%	-0.09%	47%	-8.55%	-0.24
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Style / Market Structure	4	27	-1.68%	-18.4%	-0.06%	56%	-17.36%	-0.27
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Commodities / Crypto / USD	12	4	-0.80%	-9.1%	-2.54%	75%	-14.78%	-0.28
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	International Equity	8	4	-0.85%	-9.7%	-2.59%	75%	-19.68%	-0.29
Inflation/Stagflation	Financial / Health Care Industries	10	36	-0.65%	-7.5%	-0.22%	47%	-9.72%	-0.34
Goldilocks	Industries / Infrastructure / Housing	16	49	0.20%	2.4%	-0.93%	51%	-12.59%	-0.39
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Core Index Beta	6	27	-1.67%	-18.3%	-0.05%	48%	-18.46%	-0.42
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	27	-1.57%	-17.3%	0.04%	44%	-24.44%	-0.44
Inflation/Stagflation	Growth / Tech Leadership	12	36	-0.90%	-10.3%	-0.47%	47%	-13.35%	-0.53
Goldilocks	Metals / Miners	10	49	-0.24%	-2.9%	-1.37%	45%	-14.66%	-0.87
Downside-Confirmed Slowdown	Thematic / Speculative Growth	2	4	-3.13%	-31.7%	-4.87%	50%	-30.82%	-1.07

Portfolio Translation For Current State

This combines historical macro behavior with economic intuition. It uses the downside-confirmed overlay only when active. Confirm with the CIO Missive, Strategist command center, options, VAMS, and ticker-level tape before sizing.

Layer	Name	Historical Read	PM Use
Group	Growth / Tech Leadership	Avg 1.47%, excess 0.34%, hit 63%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Core Index Beta	Avg 1.16%, excess 0.03%, hit 71%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Style / Market Structure	Avg 1.09%, excess -0.04%, hit 71%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Financial / Health Care Industries	Avg 1.07%, excess -0.05%, hit 65%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Factors / Risk Appetite	Avg 0.79%, excess -0.44%, hit 68%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Thematic / Speculative Growth	Avg 0.97%, excess -0.16%, hit 59%	Use only if Strategist/ticker evidence confirms.
Group	Cyclical Sectors	Avg 0.86%, excess -0.27%, hit 61%	Primary expression candidate
Group	Defensive Sectors	Avg 0.64%, excess -0.49%, hit 61%	Use only if Strategist/ticker evidence confirms.
ETF	BTC-USD	Avg 9.67%, excess 8.37%, hit 70%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	CRAK	Avg 2.14%, excess 0.89%, hit 69%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	XLC	Avg 2.12%, excess 0.69%, hit 78%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	ARKK	Avg 2.27%, excess 1.02%, hit 62%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	IBB	Avg 1.89%, excess 0.76%, hit 65%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	PNQI	Avg 1.86%, excess 0.73%, hit 61%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	QQQ	Avg 1.67%, excess 0.54%, hit 65%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	XBI	Avg 1.94%, excess 0.81%, hit 57%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	IGV	Avg 1.80%, excess 0.67%, hit 61%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	SMH	Avg 1.72%, excess 0.59%, hit 61%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	OEF	Avg 1.30%, excess 0.17%, hit 73%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.
ETF	XLK	Avg 1.63%, excess 0.50%, hit 63%	Candidate from quad history; confirm with CIO Missive ticker page before use.

Methodology

Regime definition: Growth Level is a balanced Macro Lens activity composite: Labor Market 16%, Credit / Liquidity 16%, Consumer Firepower 13%, Fiscal Monitor 10%, Manufacturing Cycle 14%, Housing / Construction 10%, Consumer 4%, NFIB / Main Street 4%, and Hard Real Activity 9%. Inflation Permission is intentionally excluded from this growth axis, so inflation is not counted on both axes. Growth and inflation impulses are two-month changes in four-month-smoothed Growth Level and Inflation Pressure, where Inflation Pressure equals 100 minus Inflation Permission. The four regimes use the signs of those two impulses. A 10% historical-volatility neutral band carries the prior direction only for a very small near-zero move; there is no persistence delay.

Model selection: the specification was selected from pre-set source, smoothing, neutral-band, and timing alternatives using independent FRED real-GDP and core-PCE outcomes. In the post-2018 holdout it classified the exact four-state outcome 46% of the time, identified the growth direction 62% of the time, and identified the inflation direction 70% of the time. A conservative one-month timing check was 58% for growth direction and 70% for inflation direction. Five- and six-state variants were rejected because they did not improve the full validation set consistently.

Macro downside confirmation: the four quadrants remain the primary model. Inside Disinflationary Slowdown only, the filter activates when at least two of five independent stress checks agree: Sahm-style unemployment pressure of 0.35 points or more, claims at least 20% above their 52-week low, industrial production below -3% at a six-month annualized pace, payroll growth at or below 1% at a six-month annualized pace, or a stressed/worsening Chicago Fed NFCI. The filter never uses ETF returns, SPY rebounds, or V-shaped-recovery exclusions to define a state. Every ETF is backtested from its own available confirmed-downside history; a fixed liquid proxy archive extends overlapping instruments to 2000 and independently validates the protection read. The recovery sensitivity audit discloses the price-rebound months that would alter the historical result, but those observations are never removed from the primary backtest.

Lower-left composition: the downside section reports what share of broad Disinflationary Slowdown months were macro-confirmed downside, price-relief recovery months, or ordinary deceleration. The categories are shown once per month for clarity, with macro-confirmed evidence taking priority if a month overlaps the price-recovery screen. The price-recovery slice is descriptive sensitivity only and never changes a macro label, a posterior probability, or a portfolio action.

Backtest definition: ETF performance is same-month return while the model is in the active regime. This says what historically worked during the same macro regime; it is not a standalone trade signal.

Observation rule: the four primary regimes use the selected minimum observation count. Downside Confirmed includes every available ETF overlap so the full universe remains visible; its evidence-weighted ranking automatically discounts short samples. Read any high-return table with observation count, hit rate, worst month, and bootstrap range before treating it as a portfolio signal.

Bootstrap definition: confidence ranges resample the same-month return observations inside each regime and estimate uncertainty around the average monthly return. The realized 5th-95th percentile range is shown separately as the historical volatility band.

Annualized versus average month: annualized return scales the average monthly return into a yearly pace. Average month is the raw observation and should be treated as the cleaner statistic when sample size is limited.

Data caveat: This uses the current Strategist ETF universe and available price history, so newer ETFs have shorter histories. Minimum observation filters reduce short-history distortion, but survivorship bias still exists.

Refresh workflow: run the source macro decks and Macro Lens first, then this file. The deliverable reads the same Macro Lens model sources and the Strategist ETF universe; it does not trigger CIO Missive ticker exports.