Market Weather Brief
Use the deck as a market-weather and relative-opportunity document. The current weather is defensive: Multiple weather inputs are constraining the risk budget. Prioritize resilience, repair, and protection over expansion. The main bullish sleeve set is Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure; the main risk-watch set is Core Index Beta, Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing.
This Week's Decision
Read this first. It compresses the command center into the weather, current directional leans, five-day change, and what would invalidate the view.
| Question | Current Read | Evidence | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Market weather | Defensive | Multiple weather inputs are constraining the risk budget. Prioritize resilience, repair, and protection over expansion. | Use the weather read as the portfolio risk budget. It guides how selective to be, not a stand-alone trade signal. |
| Where to lean bullish | Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure | These sleeves have sufficient combined trend, breadth, momentum, macro, and risk-transfer support for a favorable lean. | Favor pullbacks and confirmed repair. Avoid chasing assets with stretched z-scores or an active options/positioning warning. |
| Where to lean bearish | Core Index Beta, Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | These sleeves lack enough current confirmation or face a risk-budget constraint that prevents a constructive lean. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair. A higher price alone is not enough to upgrade the call. |
| What changed | Improving: Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure, Commodities / Crypto / USD, Core Index Beta; deteriorating: Defensive Sectors, Metals / Miners, Rates / Credit, International Equity | VAMS buys: XLK, SPY, XLC, XHB, ACWX, KWEB, DIA. VAMS sells: TLT, CL=F, SLV. Positioning buying: SOFR-3M, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Natural Gas, Copper; selling: 10-Year Treasury Notes, S&P 500, Euro FX, Japanese Yen. | Use the five-day change lens to decide whether the tape is broadening, narrowing, or simply rotating. |
| What invalidates | Breadth deterioration plus risk-budget deterioration | A broad increase in damage, worsening rates/credit, a defensive options tape, VAMS sells, or positioning unwind can invalidate the current favorable leans. | Cut beta if damage rises, FCI rolls over, options risk-control validation broadens, and VAMS sells expand together. |
Current Market Weather
Core-index score 29.7; damage breadth 8.0%.
Risk appetite 36.6, financial conditions 23.7, drawdown risk 54.1.
Rates/Credit group score 11.3; use spreads and volatility as the risk governor.
VAMS buy rate 37%; fresh buys XLK, SPY, XLC, XHB, ACWX, KWEB, DIA.
Options score 40.3 / 100; Low options pressure.
Equity positioning contribution +2.0; crowding can support or cap risk.
Bottom Line
Defensive: favor confirmed leadership rather than broad, indiscriminate beta. Current bullish sleeves are Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure; current bearish sleeves are Core Index Beta, Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing.
What To Do
Favor Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure and only add where breadth, VAMS, macro conditions, and Options Intelligence are not fighting each other.
What To Watch
Watch Core Index Beta, Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, fresh VAMS sells (TLT, CL=F, SLV), weekly damage breadth, and any new risk-budget veto.
How to use this page: this is the weekly one-page read. Use PM Decision Memo for the formal workflow, Evidence Matrix to inspect confirmation, Weekly Change Lens to see what improved or deteriorated, and source pages only when proof is needed behind a specific call.
Current Portfolio Read
| Decision Area | Current Read | Plain-English Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Market weather | Defensive | Multiple weather inputs are constraining the risk budget. Prioritize resilience, repair, and protection over expansion. |
| Bullish sleeves | Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure | These sleeves have enough combined evidence to favor ownership or add on pullbacks. |
| Neutral sleeves | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Evidence is mixed or incomplete. Own selectively rather than make them a primary portfolio lean. |
| Bearish sleeves | Core Index Beta, Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | The current stack argues for reducing exposure or waiting for repair. |
| This week's improvements | Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure, Commodities / Crypto / USD, Core Index Beta | Changes are based on the fixed five-trading-day lookback where prior data is available. |
| This week's deterioration | Defensive Sectors, Metals / Miners, Rates / Credit, International Equity | Deterioration should raise the bar for new exposure and move attention to confirmation or repair. |
Keep this page high level: Market Weather Brief states the market posture and the immediate decision. The complete sleeve-by-sleeve view lives only on Sleeve Bias Map, so the weekly meeting does not read the same calls twice.
Decision Inputs
Where To Go Next
Client Question Map
| If Client Asks | Answer From Deck |
|---|---|
| Are we risk-on or risk-off? | Market weather is defensive. Multiple weather inputs are constraining the risk budget. Prioritize resilience, repair, and protection over expansion. |
| Where should we add? | Favor the bullish sleeves first: Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure. The Sleeve Bias Map shows the current lean and what needs to stay true. |
| What could go wrong? | Main risk-watch sleeves are Core Index Beta, Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing. New breadth damage, VAMS sells, tightening financial conditions, protection demand, or crowding can downgrade the view. |
| What changes the view? | Upgrade risk if breadth, FCI, validation-supported Options setup, VAMS, and drawdown safety improve together. Downgrade risk if damage, options risk-control validation, VAMS sells, FCI tightening, and positioning unwinds align. |
PM Decision Memo
The Command Center is the weekly PM decision layer above the source decks. It turns the live quantitative stack into a simple current lean: bullish where independent evidence agrees, neutral where it is mixed, and bearish where trend or risk conditions are constraining. The current market weather is Defensive. Multiple weather inputs are constraining the risk budget. Prioritize resilience, repair, and protection over expansion.
PM workflow: 1) establish market weather from participation and risk budget, 2) favor green sleeves and remain selective in yellow sleeves, 3) use rates/credit, CFTC, Options, and VAMS as confirmation or veto layers, and 4) change the lean only when the evidence changes. Price/breadth as of 2026-09-25; breadth metrics as of 2026-09-25; CFTC positioning as of 2026-09-22; VAMS as of 2026-09-25; Options as of 2026-09-24.
What Changed This Week
Compressed change log for the memo. Use Weekly Change Lens for the full sleeve-level evidence and Group Change Log for the historical group snapshot.
| Area | This Week | PM Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Risk appetite | 36.6 / 100, Stable; 1W +0.9, 4W -23.2 | Higher and improving supports being invested; fading argues for tighter sizing and stronger confirmation. |
| Financial conditions | 23.7 / 100, Very Tight; decile 1/10; 1W -3.2, 4W -8.0 | Higher and improving means macro conditions are easing; lower or fading conditions argue for a tighter risk budget. |
| S&P 500 drawdown risk | 54.1 / 100, Elevated; decile 7/10; 1W -3.9, 4W +2.8 | Higher and rising readings mean downside risk is building; size exposure from forward drawdown risk, not just current leadership. |
| Options risk-transfer | 40.3 / 100, Low options pressure; path risk 38.6, protection demand 40.7, urgent hedge demand 53.0, leadership call chase 42.1, IV pressure 34.9; overlay +0.0 | Use options as validation or risk discipline: favorable pressure validation can support exposure, while risk-control validation, protection demand, IV pressure, or call chase lowers entry aggressiveness. |
| Biggest group upgrade | Growth / Tech Leadership (+16.1) | Use upgrades to find areas where breadth, trend, momentum, and z-score repair are moving in the same direction. |
| Biggest group downgrade | Metals / Miners (-12.9) | Downgrades are risk-control candidates, especially if VAMS sells or damage breadth are also rising. |
How To Read The Colors
Decision Rule
A favorable price trend is not enough on its own. Green calls require broad participation plus enough confirmation from momentum, macro risk budget, options, and positioning. Yellow means the evidence is mixed. Red means a repair or risk-control condition still dominates.
Evidence drill-down: Evidence Matrix retains the complete confirmation table and source-level stack. The memo intentionally stays in plain-English decision language for the weekly meeting.
PM Decision Hierarchy
This is the order of operations. It keeps the deck from treating every signal as equal at every moment.
| Step | Question | Current Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Risk Appetite | Is the broad ETF tape rewarding risk-taking? | 36.6 / 100, Stable |
| 2. Financial Conditions | Are USD, rates, oil, VIX, and MOVE easing or tightening the risk budget? | 23.7 / 100, Very Tight; overlay -4.0 |
| 3. Drawdown Risk | How much S&P 500 downside risk are we underwriting? | 54.1 / 100, Elevated; decile 7/10 |
| 4. Breadth | Is participation broad enough to trust the move? | Health 47.54, 50DMA 28.3%, damage 17.2% |
| 5. ETF Leadership / Z-Scores | Where is capital rotating, and are we chasing or buying repair? | Leaders Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure, Factors / Risk Appetite; extended n/a; repair none flagged |
| 6. Rates / Credit | Is risk being compensated? | Rates/Credit score 11.32 |
| 7. Positioning | Is sponsorship supportive or crowded, and is rates/funding positioning pressuring the backdrop? | CFTC equity overlay +2.0; crowded longs Copper, 5-Year Treasury Notes, 2-Year Treasury Notes, 10-Year Treasury Notes; rates/funding SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 6.4%; 13W price -0.2%; 13W Inst/HF 132.6K. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay |
| 8. Options Intelligence | Is options pressure validated as add/watch, or is it a risk-control warning? | 40.3 / 100, Low options pressure; overlay +0.0 |
| 9. VAMS | Does volatility-adjusted momentum confirm the exposure? | Overlay -1.3; buy rate 37% |
| 10. Implementation | Which sleeves should be favored, held selectively, or reduced? | Weather Defensive; bullish Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure; bearish Core Index Beta, Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing |
Conflicts To Resolve
| Conflict | Current Read | PM Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Broad tape vs macro conditions | Risk appetite 36.6 / 100 while FCI is 23.7 / 100. | If risk appetite is stronger than FCI, stay invested but prefer confirmed leaders and avoid low-quality chase. |
| Risk appetite vs drawdown risk | Risk appetite 36.6 / 100 while drawdown risk is 54.1 / 100. | When both are elevated, stay invested selectively but reduce entry aggressiveness, hedge more deliberately, and favor groups with confirmed breadth/VAMS. |
| Options pressure vs price leadership | Options pressure 40.3 / 100 with path risk 38.6, protection demand 40.7, IV pressure 34.9, and leadership call chase 42.1. | If options validation says risk control or leadership call chase is high, do not treat price momentum as permission to chase. Require breadth, VAMS, and z-score entry discipline. |
| Leadership vs entry risk | Extended ETFs: n/a; repair watch: none flagged. | Add to leaders on pullbacks, not after extension; prioritize repair only when breadth/VAMS confirm. |
| Momentum vs participation | VAMS overlay -1.3; avg damage breadth 17.2%. | Fresh VAMS buys matter most when damage is contained; rising damage means size down the signal. |
| Credit calm vs compensation | Rates/Credit score 11.32; spreads remain tight. | Do not confuse calm with cheap; require stronger breadth before adding lower-quality beta. |
What Would Change The View?
| Path | Trigger | PM Action |
|---|---|---|
| Upgrade Risk | Agreement score rises to 7-9 checks, FCI >55 or improving, drawdown risk falls below 45, 50/200DMA breadth expands, options setup is add/watch validated, and VAMS fresh buys broaden beyond narrow leaders. | Raise beta and add to confirmed group leaders. |
| Hold / Selective | Agreement holds at 5-6 checks, FCI neutral, leadership remains concentrated, options tape is balanced, drawdown risk stays elevated but stable, and z-score extension stays elevated. | Keep current stance; rotate inside leaders and avoid broad chase. |
| Downgrade Risk | Agreement falls below 5 checks, FCI breaks below 45 or rolls over, drawdown risk rises above 60, options risk-control validation or protection demand rises, damage breadth rises, and VAMS sells broaden. | Cut beta, raise quality/cash, and wait for repair. |
Risk-budget drill-down: the aggregate gauges and their combined S&P 500 validation now live on the Macro Risk Dashboard page directly below this memo. The PM Memo stays focused on decision, stance, and action.
Where the detail lives: Sleeve Bias Map is the only page that lists every current bullish, neutral, bearish, and reserve sleeve. Evidence Matrix holds the supporting proof. This memo deliberately stops at the portfolio conclusion, action hierarchy, and invalidation conditions.
1. Breadth And Participation
Determines whether the move is broad enough to support beta or narrow enough to require selectivity.
2. ETF Leadership
Identifies where capital is actually rotating and whether leadership is broadening or narrowing.
3. Rates / Credit Risk Budget
The yield curve deck acts as the governor on how aggressively to use equity and credit beta.
4. Positioning, Options, And VAMS
CFTC checks sponsorship/crowding. Options checks validation-aware pressure, near-term path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, and leadership call chase. VAMS checks whether volatility-adjusted momentum is confirming or withholding risk.
Evidence drill-down: use Top-Down Map for group heatmaps and ETF buckets, Charts for visual confirmation, Signal Details for ticker-level leaders/laggards, Cross-Analysis for source-deck agreement, and Methodology for scoring definitions. The PM Memo stays intentionally compressed so it can be read first without re-reading the whole packet.
Evidence Matrix
This page shows why each sleeve is green, yellow, red, or held as reserve. It separates source-level evidence from the sleeve-level call so the reader can see where the view is strongly confirmed, mixed, or constrained.
Source-Level Agreement
This is the same evidence stack compressed in the PM Memo, shown here with the full explanation. Constructive means the signal supports the current risk budget; Watch means it needs confirmation or is a constraint.
| Signal | Read | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk appetite | Watch | Risk appetite 36.6 / 100, Stable; 4W -23.2. | Checks whether the broad ETF tape is rewarding risk-taking. |
| Breadth | Watch | Avg health 47.54, above 50DMA 28.3%, damage 17.2%. | Confirms whether market internals support exposure. |
| ETF leadership / z-scores | Watch | Top groups: Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure, Factors / Risk Appetite. Extended watch: n/a. | Confirms where risk is rotating and whether entries are stretched. |
| Rates / credit | Watch | Rates/Credit strategy score 11.32. | Sets the risk budget for equity and credit beta. |
| Financial conditions | Watch | FCI 23.7 / 100, Very Tight; decile 1/10; overlay -4.0. | Checks whether rates, dollar, oil, VIX, and MOVE are helping or constraining the risk budget. |
| Drawdown risk | Watch | Drawdown risk 54.1 / 100, Elevated; 4W +2.8. | Checks whether downside-underwriting risk is low, falling, or manageable. |
| Options Intelligence | Watch | Options pressure 40.3 / 100, Low options pressure; path risk 38.6, protection demand 40.7, IV pressure 34.9, overlay +0.0. | Checks whether validation-aware options pressure supports risk-taking or raises the bar through path risk, protection demand, urgent hedging, IV pressure, or leadership call chase. |
| Positioning | Constructive | CFTC equity overlay +2.0; crowded longs: Copper, 5-Year Treasury Notes, 2-Year Treasury Notes, 10-Year Treasury Notes. Rates/funding: SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 6.4%; 13W price -0.2%; 13W Inst/HF 132.6K. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay. | Flags equity crowding/sponsorship while keeping SOFR/Treasury futures as rates/funding context. |
| VAMS | Watch | VAMS overlay -1.3; buy rate 37%. | Checks whether volatility-adjusted momentum confirms risk. |
Sleeve-Level Confirmation Matrix
Each sleeve is checked against breadth, VAMS, Options Intelligence, macro risk budget, and CFTC positioning. The output is a directional lean, not a position-size instruction.
| Sleeve | Proxy | Lean | Action | Conviction | Weekly Change | Why It Leans | What Changes It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | XLK / SMH / AIQ / IGV basket | Bullish | Favor / add on pullbacks | High | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Macro. | Loss of breadth, VAMS confirmation, or a new macro/options risk veto. |
| Style / Market Structure | IWF / IWD / VO / MAGS / XMAG | Bullish | Favor / add on pullbacks | Medium | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, Options, Positioning. Watch VAMS, Macro. | Loss of breadth, VAMS confirmation, or a new macro/options risk veto. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | GLD / DBC / USO / BTC-USD / UUP | Neutral / selective | Hold / be selective | Medium | Improving | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Macro. | Broad confirmation from breadth, VAMS, macro, and options is needed before upgrading. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Cash / T-bills | Neutral / reserve | Keep reserve | Low | No saved comparison yet | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Use only when the wider risk budget improves or a specific repair opportunity appears. |
| Core Index Beta | SPY / QQQ / IWM / RSP | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Cyclical Sectors | XLY / XLC / XLE / XLF / XLI / XLB / XHB | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Defensive Sectors | XLP / XLV / XLU / XLRE | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | KRE / IAK / IHI / IHF / XBI | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | PAVE / ITA / XTL / CARZ / XHB / ITB | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Metals / Miners | GDX / GDXJ / SIL / XME / COPX | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Rates / Credit | AGG / LQD / IEF / TLT / HYG | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | ARKK / UFO / BJK / PEJ / PINK | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | MTUM / QUAL / SPHB / SPLV / SPHD | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Medium | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, Options, Positioning. Watch VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| International Equity | EEM / EZU / INDA / DXJ | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Medium | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
Confirmation Detail
| Sleeve | Lean | Confirmation | Conviction | Breadth | VAMS | Options | Macro | Positioning | Key Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta | Bearish | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Score 29.7, health 51.6, damage 8.0%, VAMS buy rate 66.7%, options setup 40.3, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Style / Market Structure | Bullish | 3/5 | Medium | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 38.1, health 68.2, damage 0.0%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup n/a, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Favor the sleeve or add on pullbacks while confirmation remains intact. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Bearish | 3/5 | Medium | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 36.1, health 64.2, damage 0.0%, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup n/a, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Bullish | 4/5 | High | Confirm | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 52.4, health 80.1, damage 3.7%, VAMS buy rate 100.0%, options setup 46.8, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Favor the sleeve or add on pullbacks while confirmation remains intact. |
| Cyclical Sectors | Bearish | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 5.5, health 19.6, damage 21.2%, VAMS buy rate 28.6%, options setup 57.7, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Defensive Sectors | Bearish | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score -0.4, health 18.3, damage 32.8%, VAMS buy rate 25.0%, options setup 49.8, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Bearish | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 6.5, health 36.4, damage 26.8%, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup n/a, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Bearish | 1/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Score 8.4, health 36.6, damage 32.7%, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup 33.2, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Bearish | 1/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Score 15.4, health 44.4, damage 7.3%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup 42.8, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| International Equity | Bearish | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 22.2, health 51.7, damage 6.7%, VAMS buy rate 44.4%, options setup n/a, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Rates / Credit | Bearish | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 11.3, health 36.3, damage 0.3%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup 61.8, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Metals / Miners | Bearish | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 3.0, health 41.4, damage 45.1%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup n/a, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Reduce, avoid adding, or wait for repair before upgrading the call. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Neutral / selective | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 21.0, health 57.3, damage 38.7%, VAMS buy rate 50.0%, options setup 52.5, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Hold selectively; require more confirmation before making it a primary portfolio lean. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Neutral / reserve | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 20.3, health n/a, damage n/a, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup n/a, Risk 36.6 / FCI 23.7 / DD Risk 54.1. | Risk reserve; compare against drawdown risk and opportunity quality rather than source-deck breadth. |
Group-Level Diagnostics
This reconciles group breadth, price leadership, damage breadth, VAMS, and Options Intelligence into one action table. It sits here rather than in the PM Memo so the main decision read stays concise.
| Group | PM Action | Strategy Score | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Damage | VAMS Buy Rate | Options Read | Leaders | Laggards | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Equity | Bearish / reduce | 22.20 | 51.74 | 0.58 | 42.5% | 6.7% | 44.4% | No direct options read | DXJ, EEM, EWZ | FXI, EWA, INDA | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Bearish / reduce | 20.97 | 57.31 | -4.01 | 56.7% | 38.7% | 50.0% | Risk-control validation in GLD, SLV | BTC-USD, CPER, DBC | PALL, URA, SLV | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Bearish / reduce | 15.45 | 44.41 | -4.00 | 36.0% | 7.3% | 0.0% | Mixed options tape in KRE | IBB, IHE, IHF | PSP, IHI, IAK | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Rates / Credit | Bearish / reduce | 11.32 | 36.30 | -3.69 | 10.0% | 0.3% | 0.0% | Validated options pressure in TLT, IEF, LQD | BKLN, CWB, SHY | TLT, LQD, MBB | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Bearish / reduce | 8.35 | 36.63 | 5.96 | 13.3% | 32.7% | n/a | Mixed options tape in TSLA | PINK, PEJ, UFO | UFO, PEJ, PINK | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Bearish / reduce | 6.53 | 36.43 | -2.23 | 21.2% | 26.8% | n/a | No direct options read | CARZ, CRAK, JETS | NUKZ, XTN, XES | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Cyclical Sectors | Bearish / reduce | 5.48 | 19.56 | -0.22 | 28.4% | 21.2% | 28.6% | Risk-control validation in XLC, XHB | XLI, XHB, XLE | XLF, XLY, XLB | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Metals / Miners | Bearish / reduce | 3.04 | 41.37 | -11.86 | 38.0% | 45.1% | 0.0% | No direct options read | GSG, COPX, HAP | URNM, XME, SILJ | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Defensive Sectors | Bearish / reduce | -0.38 | 18.33 | -0.68 | 24.9% | 32.8% | 25.0% | Risk-control validation in XLU, XLP | XLV, XLP, XLRE | XLU, XLRE, XLP | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Neutral / risk reserve | 20.29 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | n/a | n/a | Cash is included in the 100% model normalization. It rises when broad beta weakens, damage broadens, financial conditions tighten, or VAMS/positioning overlays stop supporting selected risk exposure. |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Neutral / selective | 52.44 | 80.13 | 12.91 | 84.3% | 3.7% | 100.0% | Risk-control validation in GOOGL, AMZN, SMH | ARKK, QTUM, AIQ | XLK, GRID, SMH | Usable strength, but not enough confirmation for broad risk expansion. |
| Style / Market Structure | Neutral / watch for confirmation | 38.11 | 68.21 | 8.44 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | No direct options read | MAGS, IWF, XMAG | VO, SPXT, IWD | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Neutral / watch for confirmation | 36.15 | 64.23 | 4.78 | 60.0% | 0.0% | n/a | No direct options read | SPHB, MTUM, QUAL | SPHD, SPLV, QUAL | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Core Index Beta | Neutral / watch for confirmation | 29.71 | 51.57 | 4.80 | 54.6% | 8.0% | 66.7% | Risk-control validation in VTI | XLG, OEF, RSP | SPY, IWM, QQQ | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
Weekly Change Lens
This page isolates what improved, deteriorated, or stayed stable over the five-trading-day lookback. It explains the change in the directional sleeve call without exposing model weights or raw overlay math.
Sleeves That Actually Moved
Only material five-day improvements and deteriorations appear here. Stable sleeve calls stay on the Sleeve Bias Map, where they belong.
Improving
| Sleeve | Lean | Weekly Change | Why It Leans | What Changes It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Bullish | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Macro. | Loss of breadth, VAMS confirmation, or a new macro/options risk veto. |
| Style / Market Structure | Bullish | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, Options, Positioning. Watch VAMS, Macro. | Loss of breadth, VAMS confirmation, or a new macro/options risk veto. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Neutral / selective | Improving | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Macro. | Broad confirmation from breadth, VAMS, macro, and options is needed before upgrading. |
| Core Index Beta | Bearish | Improving | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Cyclical Sectors | Bearish | Improving | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Bearish | Improving | Confirmation comes from Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Bearish | Improving | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Bearish | Improving | Confirmation comes from Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Bearish | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, Options, Positioning. Watch VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
Deteriorating
| Sleeve | Lean | Weekly Change | Why It Leans | What Changes It |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Sectors | Bearish | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Metals / Miners | Bearish | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Rates / Credit | Bearish | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| International Equity | Bearish | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
Biggest Group Upgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2026-09-18 | 52.44 | 16.08 | 80.13 | 16.36 | 84.3% | 23.0% | 3.7% | -3.2% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 2026-09-18 | 36.15 | 9.42 | 64.23 | 8.01 | 60.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 2026-09-18 | 8.35 | 6.39 | 36.63 | 5.08 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 32.7% | -1.6% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 2026-09-18 | 5.48 | 5.91 | 19.56 | -0.22 | 28.4% | 0.2% | 21.2% | -7.0% |
| Style / Market Structure | 2026-09-18 | 38.11 | 5.73 | 68.21 | 4.25 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Core Index Beta | 2026-09-18 | 29.71 | 4.27 | 51.57 | 0.93 | 54.6% | -0.9% | 8.0% | -0.8% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 2026-09-18 | 6.53 | 2.83 | 36.43 | 0.56 | 21.2% | -2.5% | 26.8% | -0.6% |
| International Equity | 2026-09-18 | 22.20 | 0.19 | 51.74 | -0.63 | 42.5% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
Biggest Group Downgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals / Miners | 2026-09-18 | 3.04 | -12.90 | 41.37 | -14.36 | 38.0% | -20.0% | 45.1% | 4.8% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 2026-09-18 | 20.97 | -7.62 | 57.31 | -6.95 | 56.7% | -3.3% | 38.7% | -1.6% |
| Rates / Credit | 2026-09-18 | 11.32 | -5.54 | 36.30 | -6.96 | 10.0% | -5.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Defensive Sectors | 2026-09-18 | -0.38 | -2.13 | 18.33 | -0.68 | 24.9% | -1.2% | 32.8% | 8.3% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 2026-09-18 | 15.45 | -1.61 | 44.41 | -2.38 | 36.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% | -0.8% |
Macro Risk Dashboard
The master risk-budget page. It combines Risk Appetite, Financial Conditions, S&P 500 Drawdown Safety, and Options Intelligence into one current setup, then keeps the individual gauges and validation tables underneath so every input remains independently defensible.
Master Risk-Budget Read
The aggregate gauge is the master risk-budget read: 30% Risk Appetite, 30% Financial Conditions, 25% Drawdown Safety, and 15% Options Intelligence. Drawdown Safety is the inverse of drawdown risk. Higher scores mean the tape, macro backdrop, downside-underwriting setup, and validation-aware options evidence are more aligned for invested exposure. The validation preserves the full original Risk Appetite / Financial Conditions / Drawdown Safety history; Options Intelligence is blended into the master score only from the date its own history begins.
| Master Score | State | Risk Appetite | FCI | Drawdown Safety | Options Intelligence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 35.91 | Defensive | 36.63 | 23.73 | 45.87 | 42.23 | This is the aggregate risk-budget read; use individual gauges below to explain the drivers. |
Validated Risk-Budget Evidence
This is the statistical proof layer for the aggregate gauge. It tests whether the master score separates lower-risk S&P 500 environments from higher-risk ones using future 6M max drawdown and future 6M >10% drawdown hit rates. AUC means area under the curve: 0.50 has no ranking power, 0.70+ is useful, and 1.00 would perfectly rank future drawdown events.
| Validation Target | Obs | AUC | High-Score Avg 6M Max DD | Low-Score Avg 6M Max DD | High-Score >10% DD Hit | Low-Score >10% DD Hit | Baseline >10% DD Hit | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Future 6M SPY >10% drawdown | 1603 | 0.79 | -3.0% | -7.8% | 0.7% | 38.2% | 19.1% | High aggregate scores have historically carried materially lower future drawdown risk than low scores. |
| Score Range | Risk Budget Tier | Current Tier | Obs | Avg 6M SPY Return | Avg 6M Max DD | >10% DD Hit | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70-100 | Expand Risk | 116 | 7.0% | -2.5% | 0.0% | Stay invested; add only to confirmed groups and avoid stretched entries. | |
| 55-70 | Constructive | 593 | 5.8% | -3.7% | 4.7% | Maintain risk with group-level confirmation from breadth, z-scores, VAMS, and positioning. | |
| 45-55 | Selective | 297 | 4.7% | -5.9% | 17.5% | Let the best groups work, but do not lift broad beta without confirmation. | |
| 30-45 | Defensive | ✓ | 316 | 6.0% | -6.9% | 37.7% | Reduce weak sleeves, raise quality/cash, and require repair before adding. |
| 0-30 | Stress | 281 | 2.0% | -8.2% | 38.1% | Capital preservation first; wait for risk appetite or financial conditions repair. |
Individual Gauge Evidence
The aggregate gauge is only useful if the underlying gauges are individually explainable. The sections below keep each gauge's line history, current statistics, component table, and backtest evidence visible underneath the master read.
Options Intelligence Read
A 0-100 validation-aware Options Pressure Composite from the Options Intelligence deck. Higher readings mean option-market pressure is present; PM Action, Validation Read, and Forward Return Evidence decide whether that pressure is add/watch or risk control. This is not a standalone bullish/bearish signal; it confirms or challenges breadth, VAMS, positioning, and macro conditions.
Current Options Tape
How To Use It
Options is the validation-aware pressure layer. High pressure can be opportunity or warning depending on the symbol's own backtest.
Options Pressure SPY Forward-Return Study
This validation table buckets the daily Options Pressure Composite into equal-count quintiles, then asks what SPY did over the next 1M, 3M, and 6M. The current quintile is highlighted; use it as risk-budget evidence, not a standalone trading signal.
| Score Range | Options Pressure Tier | Current Tier | Obs | Avg 1M SPY Return | Avg 3M SPY Return | Avg 6M SPY Return | Avg 6M Max DD | >10% DD Hit | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.5-83.8 | High Options Pressure | 89 | 3.6% | 9.0% | 14.1% | -4.6% | 19.1% | Historically strongest SPY forward-return bucket in this sample; use as risk permission only when breadth/VAMS confirm. | |
| 51.3-56.2 | Constructive | 88 | 1.1% | 5.6% | 9.4% | -6.3% | 23.9% | Constructive options backdrop; stay invested but still require group confirmation. | |
| 46.5-51.2 | Balanced | 89 | 0.8% | 4.1% | 7.1% | -6.4% | 27.0% | Middle bucket; treat Options as context rather than a standalone risk-on/risk-off call. | |
| 41.9-46.5 | Defensive | 88 | 0.6% | 2.6% | 6.7% | -7.4% | 28.4% | Defensive options backdrop; tighten sizing and avoid forcing broad beta. | |
| 22.3-41.9 | Low Options Pressure | ✓ | 89 | -0.6% | -0.3% | 5.7% | -9.6% | 41.6% | Weakest options backdrop; prioritize drawdown control unless broader gauges repair. |
Aggregate Risk Appetite Read
A 0-100 aggregate gauge built from the ETF universe. Higher scores show broader trend participation, stronger short/intermediate momentum, and less drawdown pressure. Lower scores show weaker participation and higher stress.
Current Aggregate Score
How To Use It
This is the first-pass risk-temperature read before the detailed PM table. It does not replace group diagnostics; it tells you whether the broad tape is rewarding risk-taking, demanding selectivity, or warning that repair is needed.
Risk Appetite SPY Forward-Return Study
This table backs the Apex Risk Appetite Gauge with the same style of evidence as the other validated gauges. It buckets the daily risk-appetite score into equal-count quintiles, then measures what SPY did over the next 1M, 3M, and 6M plus the future 6M max drawdown. The current quintile is highlighted.
| Score Range | Risk Appetite Tier | Current Tier | Obs | Avg 1M SPY Return | Avg 3M SPY Return | Avg 6M SPY Return | Avg 6M Max DD | >10% DD Hit | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.7-93.8 | Strong Risk Appetite | 321 | 0.8% | 2.5% | 6.5% | -3.3% | 1.2% | Historically strongest broad-tape bucket; use as risk permission when drawdown risk and options do not object. | |
| 67.4-77.7 | Constructive | 320 | 0.4% | 1.7% | 4.9% | -4.9% | 12.5% | Constructive tape; stay invested and add through confirmed groups rather than lifting every sleeve. | |
| 51.8-67.4 | Balanced | 321 | 0.5% | 1.4% | 4.4% | -5.5% | 16.5% | Middle bucket; let breadth, VAMS, Options, and FCI decide the sleeve-level action. | |
| 29.8-51.8 | Defensive | ✓ | 320 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 4.0% | -6.7% | 34.4% | Defensive tape; require cleaner confirmation before adding beta. |
| 1.7-29.8 | Stress / Repair Needed | 321 | 1.2% | 4.1% | 5.6% | -6.8% | 30.8% | Weak tape; prioritize capital preservation and repair evidence. |
Financial Conditions Ease Index
A 0-100 macro conditions gauge using USD, 5Y and 10Y yields, oil, VIX, and MOVE. Higher scores mean easier conditions. Forward returns are the historical average PM-group returns that followed each financial-conditions decile.
Current Conditions
How To Use It
This is the macro risk-budget layer. It is most useful when compared with the existing risk appetite gauge: risk appetite tells us what markets are doing; financial conditions tell us whether liquidity, volatility, rates, dollar, and oil pressure are helping or constraining that move.
Current Input Read
| Input | Level Ease | 3M Easing Impulse | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.25 | 59.13 | Tighter |
| Oil | 2.25 | 29.76 | Tighter |
| 10Y Yield | 0.00 | 6.75 | Tighter |
| 5Y Yield | 0.13 | 5.95 | Tighter |
| VIX | 88.82 | 76.19 | Easier |
| MOVE | 25.66 | 7.80 | Tighter |
Average Group Returns By FCI Decile
| Decile | FCI Range | Obs | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.3-27.0 | 476 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.9% | 1.6% |
| 2 | 27.0-33.9 | 476 | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| 3 | 33.9-39.4 | 476 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.7% |
| 4 | 39.4-44.4 | 475 | -0.0% | 0.3% | 1.7% | 2.9% |
| 5 | 44.4-48.0 | 476 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.8% | 3.9% |
| 6 | 48.1-51.3 | 476 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.6% | 4.6% |
| 7 | 51.3-54.8 | 475 | 0.1% | 0.4% | 3.1% | 4.2% |
| 8 | 54.8-59.2 | 476 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 5.2% |
| 9 | 59.2-64.6 | 476 | 0.3% | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.3% |
| 10 | 64.7-84.3 | 476 | 0.5% | 1.5% | 3.4% | 9.0% |
Current-Decile Forward Return Profile
Historical average forward returns by PM group when the Financial Conditions Ease Index sat in the current decile. This is context, not a trade signal by itself.
| Group | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Sectors | 0.1% | 0.9% | 2.1% | 2.5% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.6% | 3.0% |
| International Equity | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.5% | 1.8% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.4% | 1.6% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 0.1% | 0.9% | 1.3% | 2.8% |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 0.1% | 0.7% | 1.2% | 2.7% |
| Style / Market Structure | 0.1% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 2.4% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.0% | 3.9% |
| Core Index Beta | 0.1% | 0.7% | 0.9% | 2.2% |
| Metals / Miners | 0.1% | 0.5% | 0.6% | -1.6% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 0.1% | 0.6% | 0.5% | 2.4% |
| Rates / Credit | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.1% | -0.3% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | -0.0% | -0.1% | -1.1% | -2.4% |
S&P 500 Drawdown Risk Gauge
A 0-100 downside-risk read built to answer one question: how much future S&P 500 drawdown risk is the portfolio underwriting if it stays invested? Higher readings mean higher drawdown risk. Forward returns are intentionally excluded here because V-shaped bottoms can make return tests noisy; the validation target is future max drawdown and drawdown hit rates.
Current Drawdown Risk
How To Use It
This is the downside-underwriting layer. Risk appetite says whether the tape is rewarding risk; financial conditions say whether the macro backdrop is helping; drawdown risk says how much S&P 500 downside risk historically followed a similar setup.
Component Breakdown
| Component | Weight | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breadth Damage | 30.0% | 66.06 | High risk |
| Market Drawdown / Momentum Pressure | 20.0% | 45.81 | Neutral / watch |
| Financial Stress | 20.0% | 74.61 | VIX 14.9 (11 pctile), MOVE 96.0 |
| Leadership Fragility | 15.0% | 13.62 | Low risk |
| Credit / Rates Stress | 15.0% | 54.60 | HY/IG OAS plus MOVE/rates pressure; HY OAS 2.80, IG OAS 0.79 |
Current-Decile SPY Drawdown Test
A compact read of what historically happened after the current drawdown-risk decile. Avg/Worst Max DD are future SPY max drawdowns inside each horizon; hit rates show how often SPY later crossed the stated drawdown threshold.
| Horizon | Decile | Risk Range | Obs | Avg Max DD | Worst Max DD | >10% DD Hit | >15% DD Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 7 | 51.8-57.4 | 210 | -1.6% | -12.7% | 0.5% | 0.0% |
| 3M | 7 | 51.8-57.4 | 210 | -3.9% | -17.5% | 14.7% | 4.9% |
| 6M | 7 | 51.8-57.4 | 210 | -5.5% | -20.6% | 25.9% | 12.7% |
| 12M | 7 | 51.8-57.4 | 210 | -7.9% | -23.0% | 39.1% | 24.7% |
Drawdown Risk Predictive Validation
This is the model validation layer. It compares future drawdowns after low-risk readings against future drawdowns after high-risk readings. A useful signal should show deeper average/worst future drawdowns and higher 5%, 10%, and 15% drawdown hit rates in high-risk buckets.
The right side of the table is the forward drawdown test. Low-Risk / High-Risk Avg Max DD show average future max drawdown after low- versus high-risk readings. Extra Avg DD Risk is normalized so positive means high-risk readings led to deeper average drawdowns. Worst Max DD shows the worst forward drawdown in each bucket. The >5%, >10%, and >15% DD Hit columns show how often SPY later crossed those drawdown thresholds within the horizon. Extra 10% Hit Risk is also normalized so positive means high-risk readings had more frequent 10% drawdowns.
| Horizon | Low-Risk Obs | High-Risk Obs | Low-Risk Avg Max DD | High-Risk Avg Max DD | Extra Avg DD Risk | Low-Risk Worst Max DD | High-Risk Worst Max DD | Low-Risk >5% DD Hit | High-Risk >5% DD Hit | Low-Risk >10% DD Hit | High-Risk >10% DD Hit | Extra 10% Hit Risk | Low-Risk >15% DD Hit | High-Risk >15% DD Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 628 | 616 | -1.5% | -3.0% | 1.5% | -9.3% | -13.7% | 2.2% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3M | 618 | 605 | -2.3% | -5.2% | 2.9% | -18.8% | -17.6% | 13.3% | 45.5% | 0.2% | 22.0% | 21.8% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| 6M | 604 | 601 | -3.4% | -7.3% | 3.9% | -18.8% | -20.1% | 26.2% | 56.7% | 3.3% | 36.6% | 33.3% | 3.3% | 13.5% |
| 12M | 565 | 561 | -4.6% | -9.6% | 5.1% | -18.8% | -23.0% | 36.5% | 66.8% | 12.2% | 46.5% | 34.3% | 6.2% | 28.0% |
Methodology
This page defines the language used throughout the packet so the weekly read is explainable in a client or investment-committee setting.
Published Decision Language
What Still Runs Underneath
The color call is not discretionary decoration. It is a reader-friendly translation of the same live group score, breadth, z-score, regime, rates/credit, CFTC, VAMS, Options Intelligence, risk-appetite, financial-conditions, and drawdown-risk calculations. The evidence and internal audit layer remain available in the Evidence Matrix and this page.
Health Score
Composite breadth score from the individual ETF breadth metric files. It answers: are the holdings inside the ETF broadly confirming the price move?
Weekly Change
Health 1W Change is the 5-trading-day change in the Health Score. This matters because a strong ETF with falling internal health is different from a strong ETF whose internals are still broadening.
Price Proxy Health
For ETFs without constituent breadth files, the packet uses a technical proxy so group summaries are complete instead of blank. The proxy is intentionally less punitive after volatile single-day moves; drawdown damage begins once price is more than 10% below its trailing 1-year high.
Trend Breadth
Measures whether holdings are above key moving averages. This is the cleanest internal trend confirmation signal.
Damage Breadth
Measures internal stress. High damage breadth means the ETF price can look stable while many constituents remain impaired.
ETF Z-Score Overlay
Uses the ETF macro technical deck to judge whether leadership is extended versus each ETF's own history or whether weakness is becoming a repair candidate.
How Z-Scores Flow Through
The z-score layer is not just a table. It feeds the group Strategy Score and then the Sleeve Bias Map and Decision Playbook. Cross-Analysis and Regime show it explicitly as the chase-versus-repair layer.
Apex Risk Appetite Gauge
Aggregate 0-100 read built from the same ETF price universe used by the group decision workflow. It is the broad tape input; the Sleeve Bias Map then adds breadth, VAMS, CFTC positioning, Options Intelligence, financial conditions, rates/credit, and z-score overlays.
Financial Conditions Ease Index
Macro risk-budget overlay built from USD, oil, 5Y yield, 10Y yield, VIX, and MOVE. Higher scores mean easier conditions. Each input is ranked versus its own rolling history and inverted where lower levels are easier.
S&P 500 Drawdown Risk Gauge
Downside-underwriting score where higher means higher future S&P 500 drawdown risk. It is separate from risk appetite: markets can be rewarding risk while drawdown risk is also elevated, which argues for smaller adds, better entry discipline, or hedges. The validation target is future max drawdown; forward returns are deliberately excluded because sharp recoveries can obscure the risk question.
Options Intelligence Overlay
Validation-aware pressure layer imported from the Options Intelligence deck. It is intentionally not treated as another price-momentum signal. It asks whether options pressure has historically been helpful or harmful for each symbol, then uses path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, urgent hedge demand, and leadership call chase as sizing discipline.
CFTC Positioning Overlay
The CFTC layer has two jobs. Equity-index futures decide whether equity beta is crowded or washed out. Rates/funding futures, including SOFR-3M, are kept as context for the rates deck, FCI, MOVE, duration, and funding-pressure read.
Internal Allocation Engine
The internal model starts from backtested production base weights, then adjusts them with the weekly signal stack. The optimization used weekly equal-weight ETF group returns, PM-style sleeve constraints, and a Sharpe/Calmar/drawdown objective so the starting point is diversified rather than simply chasing the highest-return sleeve. Reader-facing pages publish the resulting directional lean, not the calculation.
Directional Upgrade And Downgrade Rules
These are the rules behind a color change in the Sleeve Bias Map. The live calls stay on the decision pages; the criteria live here so the process remains transparent.
| Path | Trigger | PM Action |
|---|---|---|
| Upgrade Risk | Agreement score rises to 7-9 checks, FCI >55 or improving, drawdown risk falls below 45, 50/200DMA breadth expands, options setup is add/watch validated, and VAMS fresh buys broaden beyond narrow leaders. | Raise beta and add to confirmed group leaders. |
| Hold / Selective | Agreement holds at 5-6 checks, FCI neutral, leadership remains concentrated, options tape is balanced, drawdown risk stays elevated but stable, and z-score extension stays elevated. | Keep current stance; rotate inside leaders and avoid broad chase. |
| Downgrade Risk | Agreement falls below 5 checks, FCI breaks below 45 or rolls over, drawdown risk rises above 60, options risk-control validation or protection demand rises, damage breadth rises, and VAMS sells broaden. | Cut beta, raise quality/cash, and wait for repair. |
Drawdown Risk Predictive Validation
This table is the institutional check on the drawdown gauge. It compares low-risk deciles 1-3 against high-risk deciles 8-10. The model is considered useful when high-risk buckets produce deeper future SPY max drawdowns and higher drawdown hit rates.
The right side of the table is the forward drawdown test. Low-Risk / High-Risk Avg Max DD compare average future max drawdowns; Extra Avg DD Risk is normalized so positive means high-risk readings led to deeper average drawdowns. Worst Max DD is the deepest observed future drawdown in each bucket. The >5%, >10%, and >15% DD Hit columns show the share of observations that later crossed those drawdown thresholds. Extra 10% Hit Risk is normalized so positive means high-risk readings were followed by more frequent 10% drawdowns.
| Horizon | Low-Risk Obs | High-Risk Obs | Low-Risk Avg Max DD | High-Risk Avg Max DD | Extra Avg DD Risk | Low-Risk Worst Max DD | High-Risk Worst Max DD | Low-Risk >5% DD Hit | High-Risk >5% DD Hit | Low-Risk >10% DD Hit | High-Risk >10% DD Hit | Extra 10% Hit Risk | Low-Risk >15% DD Hit | High-Risk >15% DD Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 628 | 616 | -1.5% | -3.0% | 1.5% | -9.3% | -13.7% | 2.2% | 25.6% | 0.0% | 5.8% | 5.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3M | 618 | 605 | -2.3% | -5.2% | 2.9% | -18.8% | -17.6% | 13.3% | 45.5% | 0.2% | 22.0% | 21.8% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| 6M | 604 | 601 | -3.4% | -7.3% | 3.9% | -18.8% | -20.1% | 26.2% | 56.7% | 3.3% | 36.6% | 33.3% | 3.3% | 13.5% |
| 12M | 565 | 561 | -4.6% | -9.6% | 5.1% | -18.8% | -23.0% | 36.5% | 66.8% | 12.2% | 46.5% | 34.3% | 6.2% | 28.0% |
ETF Group Definitions
These Command Center groupings are PM decision buckets built from the same ETF source data. Core Index Beta isolates broad market beta; Growth / Tech Leadership separates technology and semiconductor leadership; Cyclical Sectors and Defensive Sectors split the old broad sector bucket into cleaner regime signals.
| Group | ETF Count | ETFs |
|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta | 6 | SPY, QQQ, IWM, RSP, OEF, XLG |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 12 | XLK, SMH, IGV, CLOU, BUG, AIQ, QTUM, PNQI, ROBO, ARKK, GRID, NXTG |
| Cyclical Sectors | 7 | XLY, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XHB |
| Defensive Sectors | 4 | XLP, XLV, XLU, XLRE |
| Style / Market Structure | 6 | IWF, IWD, MAGS, XMAG, SPXT, VO |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 5 | SPHD, SPHB, SPLV, MTUM, QUAL |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 16 | XTL, SOCL, HERO, XES, XOP, OIH, CRAK, FCG, COAL, NUKZ, JETS, PAVE, ITA, XTN, CARZ, ITB |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 4 | PINK, UFO, BJK, PEJ |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 10 | KRE, IAK, PSP, IYG, IAI, XBI, IBB, IHF, IHI, IHE |
| Rates / Credit | 14 | STIP, SHY, TIP, IEF, TLT, AGG, CWB, EMLC, EMB, HYG, LQD, BKLN, MBB, PFF |
| Metals / Miners | 10 | GSG, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, COPX, URNM, XME, HAP, WOOD |
| International Equity | 8 | EWA, EWZ, FXI, EEM, EZU, INDA, DXJ, EWU |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 12 | DBA, DBB, BTC-USD, DBC, USO, GLD, SLV, URA, PLTM, PALL, CPER, UUP |
Cross-Analysis
This page compares the source deck suite directly. Breadth and ETF technicals define the opportunity set; financial conditions and rates/credit set the risk budget; CFTC, Options Intelligence, and VAMS confirm whether sponsorship, risk transfer, and volatility-adjusted momentum agree with the exposure.
| Question | Breadth | ETF Technicals | Financial Conditions | Rates / Credit | Positioning | Options Intelligence | VAMS / Momentum | Strategy Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Is the rally healthy? | Average health is 47.54 with strongest confirmation in ARKK, BTC-USD, MAGS, QTUM. | 1W leadership is SMH, QTUM, SPHB, XLK, BTC-USD; 1M leadership is BUG, SMH, BTC-USD, ARKK, XLK. | FCI is 23.7 / 100, Very Tight; macro overlay -4.0. | Spreads are tight, so the backdrop is calm but not cheap. | Equity-index futures set the CFTC equity overlay; SOFR/Treasury futures are rates/funding context. | Options pressure composite is 40.3 / 100 (Low options pressure); calm tape 67.7; near-term path risk 38.6; protection demand 40.7; urgent hedge demand 53.0; leadership call chase 42.1; gamma stability 73.8; IV pressure 34.9; macro-options transmission 53.9; pressure confirmation 41.8; allocation overlay +0.0. | VAMS buy rate is 37% across 41 ETFs. Fresh buy groups: Cyclical Sectors, International Equity, Growth / Tech Leadership, Core Index Beta. Fresh sell groups: Rates / Credit, Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil, Commodities / Crypto / USD. | Selective Overweight equity beta. Stay constructive only where breadth, FCI, Options, and VAMS confirm. |
| Where is risk hiding? | Weakest breadth is in URNM, XLU, PALL, XLRE; weekly deterioration is led by XOP, FCG, SIL, USO. | Weak 1W price action is in XOP, FCG, SIL, USO, IAK. | If FCI fades below 45, macro conditions become a beta governor even if price momentum is still positive. | Tight HY/IG spreads leave little cushion if volatility rises. | Crowded longs with weakening price/breadth are the highest-risk setup. | Path risk 38.6, protection demand 40.7, urgent hedge demand 53.0, IV pressure 34.9, leadership call chase 42.1. | Fresh sells are TLT, CL=F, SLV; sell groups are Rates / Credit, Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil, Commodities / Crypto / USD. | Avoid weak breadth plus options risk-control validation plus fresh VAMS sells plus low credit compensation. |
| Are we chasing or repairing? | Repair only matters when health is stabilizing or improving. | Most extended versus own history: n/a. Washed-out candidates: n/a. Repair candidates: none flagged. | Neutral/tight FCI lowers the tolerance for chasing extended winners. | When credit compensation is thin, extension risk should lower entry aggressiveness. | Crowded longs plus high ETF z-scores are the highest chase-risk combination. | High leadership call chase or high IV pressure makes strong price action less clean; use the PM Action column on the Options page. | Fresh VAMS buys in washed-out ETFs carry more repair value than fresh buys in already-extended ETFs. | Use z-scores and options pressure/crowding as entry discipline: buy confirmed repair, add to leaders on pullbacks, avoid extended weak breadth. |
| What upgrades the view? | 50DMA and 200DMA breadth expands across lagging sectors. | Leadership broadens beyond the current winners. | FCI moves above 55 or keeps improving while VIX/MOVE pressure remains contained. | MOVE stays contained and spreads do not widen. | Positioning broadens without moving into extreme crowding. | Options pressure is add/watch validated while path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, and urgent hedge demand stay contained. | VAMS buy rate rises and fresh buys rotate into cyclical/sector breadth, not only narrow winners. | Move from selective risk-on to broader risk-on and raise adjusted beta exposure. |
| What invalidates the view? | Health scores roll over and damage breadth rises. | Top momentum groups fail while defensives lead for stress reasons. | FCI rolls below 45 or dollar/rates/oil/volatility pressure rises together. | HY OAS widens and rates volatility rises. | Leveraged money exits risk assets or crowded longs unwind against price. | Options risk-control validation, protection demand, urgent hedge demand, IV pressure, or leadership call chase rises while breadth deteriorates. | Fresh sells broaden across cyclicals, tech, credit, and high-beta themes. | Raise quality, cut beta, and prioritize drawdown control. |
Breadth Deck Extract
Average breadth health is 47.54 with 28.3% of ETFs above their 50DMA and 47.0% above their 200DMA. Damage breadth is 17.2%, so the key weekly test is whether participation keeps broadening while damage stays contained. Strongest current health is in ARKK, BTC-USD, MAGS, QTUM, SPHB; weakest health is in URNM, XLU, PALL, XLRE, URA. The biggest one-week breadth improvers are QTUM, SPHB, BTC-USD, ROBO, MAGS, while deterioration is led by XOP, FCG, SIL, USO, IAK.
ETF Deck Extract
ETF price leadership is led by SMH, QTUM, SPHB, XLK, BTC-USD over one week and BUG, SMH, BTC-USD, ARKK, XLK over one month. Current laggards are XOP, FCG, SIL, USO, IAK. The strongest top-down groups are Growth / Tech Leadership, Style / Market Structure, Factors / Risk Appetite; the weakest groups are Cyclical Sectors, Metals / Miners, Defensive Sectors. This is the rotation layer: use it to separate price leadership that is confirmed by breadth from moves that are narrow, extended, or unsupported by internal participation.
Z-score overlay: extended n/a; washed out n/a; repair watch none flagged.
Yield/Credit Deck Extract
Yield Curve Credit Strategy Chartdeck Yield Curve Credit Strategy Command Center Generated from FRED rates, credit spreads, yfinance proxies, and breadth ETF prices. Credit Summary CIO View Trade Dashboard Methodology Data Guardrails Forward Returns Executive Summary Macro Dashboard Curve Risk Policy / Inflation Credit Deep Dive Quality Premium Cross-Asset Yield Curve Credit Strategy Chartdeck Institutional rates and credit analysis using FRED Treasury, inflation, term-premium, corporate spread, recession, and Yahoo Finance market-proxy data. Latest Data 2026-09-25 Chart Start 2012-01-01 Charts 17 Series 60 Credit Summary Top-of-deck credit strategy page with spread compensation, curve press
Financial Conditions Extract
FCI is 23.7 / 100, Very Tight, in decile 1/10. One-week change is -3.2 and four-week change is -8.0. The model overlay is -4.0; higher readings loosen the macro risk budget, while lower readings raise the bar for new beta.
CFTC Positioning Extract
CFTC Positioning Dashboard An institutional view of who is long, who is short, where positioning is crowded, and whether futures behavior confirms or conflicts with price. Includes net spec, asset manager, hedge fund/leveraged money, retail/non-reportable, commercial/dealer, open interest, gross crowding, z-score, percentile, and week-over-week change lenses. Assets Covered 17 Latest CFTC Data 09/22/2026 Core Lens Asset Managers + Hedge Funds Most Crowded Long Highest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. Copper 100.0% 5-Year Treasury Notes 100.0% 2-Year Treasury Notes 99.4% Most Crowded Short Lowest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. SOFR-3M 6.4% VIX 7.7% Russell 2000 9.6% Price / Positioning Confirmation Assets where 13-week price action and institutional/HF positioning are moving together. Nasdaq 100 4.7% price / 29.7K pos Crude Oil 29.5% price / 19.0K pos Gold 6.0% price / 12.0K pos Silver 9.0% price / 1.6K pos Al
Rates/funding context: SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 6.4%; 13W price -0.2%; 13W Inst/HF 132.6K. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay
Options Intelligence Extract
Options pressure composite is 40.3 / 100 (Low options pressure); calm tape 67.7; near-term path risk 38.6; protection demand 40.7; urgent hedge demand 53.0; leadership call chase 42.1; gamma stability 73.8; IV pressure 34.9; macro-options transmission 53.9; pressure confirmation 41.8; allocation overlay +0.0. Source deck summary: Options Intelligence Derivatives Risk Transfer Layer Options Intelligence End-of-day options intelligence organized around raw option-chain metrics first: put/call, IV, IV versus realized volatility, call activity, gamma, walls, surfaces, and forward-return validation. Latest Options Date September 24, 2026 Universe 35 symbols OPTIONS DECK Executive Raw Metrics ETF Snapshots ETF Panels What Changed PM Matrix IV vs RV Flow / IV Gamma / Walls Surfaces Heatmap Options Breadth Path Risk Convexity Sectors Call Chase Validation Methodology Glossary Executive Command Page CIO-level summary of current PM Action, risk-control warnings, and add/watch candidates supported by Forward Return Evidence. PM Read Neutral / selective. Use options evidence as a timing and sizing layer. Favor symbols where raw options pressure is supported by Forward Return Evidence. Asset / portfolio read: If add/watch names supported by Forward Return Evidence are expanding, options can support more exposure after price
VAMS Signal Extract
VAMS buy rate is 37% across 41 ETFs. Fresh buy groups: Cyclical Sectors, International Equity, Growth / Tech Leadership, Core Index Beta. Fresh sell groups: Rates / Credit, Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil, Commodities / Crypto / USD. Fresh buys: XLK, SPY, XLC, XHB, ACWX, KWEB, DIA. Fresh sells: TLT, CL=F, SLV. This signal is used as a confirmation or caution layer in the Sleeve Bias Map.
Confirmation / Divergence Matrix
| Signal Pair | What To Look For | Current Use |
|---|---|---|
| Price up + breadth up | 1W/1M returns positive while Health 1W Change improves. | Highest-quality leadership; candidates for overweight or add-on exposure. |
| Price up + breadth down | ETF rallying while internal participation deteriorates. | Late-stage or narrowing leadership; keep position size disciplined. |
| Price down + breadth up | ETF weak on price but internals repair. | Early repair watchlist; useful for rotation candidates. |
| Price down + breadth down | Weak returns, weak health, rising damage. | Avoid, underweight, or require a cleaner reversal signal. |
Group Change Log
This page compares the current run against the prior saved command-center snapshot using a fixed five-trading-day lookback. It is the detailed group-level companion to the Sleeve Bias Map.
Biggest Group Upgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2026-09-18 | 52.44 | 16.08 | 80.13 | 16.36 | 84.3% | 23.0% | 3.7% | -3.2% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 2026-09-18 | 36.15 | 9.42 | 64.23 | 8.01 | 60.0% | 12.0% | 0.0% | -0.2% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 2026-09-18 | 8.35 | 6.39 | 36.63 | 5.08 | 13.3% | 0.0% | 32.7% | -1.6% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 2026-09-18 | 5.48 | 5.91 | 19.56 | -0.22 | 28.4% | 0.2% | 21.2% | -7.0% |
| Style / Market Structure | 2026-09-18 | 38.11 | 5.73 | 68.21 | 4.25 | 60.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Core Index Beta | 2026-09-18 | 29.71 | 4.27 | 51.57 | 0.93 | 54.6% | -0.9% | 8.0% | -0.8% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 2026-09-18 | 6.53 | 2.83 | 36.43 | 0.56 | 21.2% | -2.5% | 26.8% | -0.6% |
| International Equity | 2026-09-18 | 22.20 | 0.19 | 51.74 | -0.63 | 42.5% | 0.0% | 6.7% | 1.9% |
Biggest Group Downgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals / Miners | 2026-09-18 | 3.04 | -12.90 | 41.37 | -14.36 | 38.0% | -20.0% | 45.1% | 4.8% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 2026-09-18 | 20.97 | -7.62 | 57.31 | -6.95 | 56.7% | -3.3% | 38.7% | -1.6% |
| Rates / Credit | 2026-09-18 | 11.32 | -5.54 | 36.30 | -6.96 | 10.0% | -5.7% | 0.3% | 0.3% |
| Defensive Sectors | 2026-09-18 | -0.38 | -2.13 | 18.33 | -0.68 | 24.9% | -1.2% | 32.8% | 8.3% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 2026-09-18 | 15.45 | -1.61 | 44.41 | -2.38 | 36.0% | 0.0% | 7.3% | -0.8% |
How to use: focus on groups where Strategy Score improves while Damage Breadth falls, or where Strategy Score deteriorates while Damage Breadth rises. Those are the cleanest week-over-week confirmation signals.
Portfolio Regime
Current regime: Own Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market. Technology and growth leadership are carrying the tape, but sector participation is not broad enough to treat the full market as equally strong. The average z-score overlay is 0.00, so extension/repair is being included in the strategy score rather than treated as a separate afterthought.
Regime Inputs
| Metric | Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta Health | 51.6 / 100 (6 ETFs) | Broad index health supports SPY/QQQ/IWM-style exposure when strong; weak readings keep beta selective. |
| Cyclical Sector Health | 19.6 / 100 (7 ETFs) | Cyclical health measures whether economically sensitive sectors are confirming risk appetite. |
| Defensive Sector Health | 18.3 / 100 (4 ETFs) | Defensive health shows whether safety-oriented sectors are taking leadership. |
| Balanced Sector Health | 18.9 / 100 | Balanced sector health measures whether participation is broad enough across sector types to trust the move. |
| Growth/Tech Health | 80.1 / 100 (12 ETFs) | Growth/tech health identifies whether leadership is concentrated in long-duration equity. |
| Rates/Credit Health | 36.3 / 100 (14 ETFs) | Rates/credit health is the risk-budget governor: strong readings support carry; weak readings argue for restraint. |
| Avg Damage Breadth | 17.2 / 100 | Damage breadth measures internal stress under the surface. Lower readings are healthier. |
| % ETFs Above 50DMA | 31.9% (36/113 ETFs) | The 50DMA reading measures intermediate-term participation. Higher readings mean broader trend support. |
| % ETFs Above 200DMA | 57.5% (65/113 ETFs) | The 200DMA reading measures long-term trend participation. Higher readings support durable exposure. |
| Average 1W Return | -0.1% | The weekly return impulse shows whether current price action is confirming the broader signal. |
| 3M ETF Return Range | High 30.9% / Low -14.0% | Shows dispersion across the ETF universe over the last three months. |
| Average ETF Extension Z | n/a z | ETF-deck z-score layer: positive readings mean the universe is stretched versus its own history; negative readings flag repair or washed-out conditions. |
| Extended ETF Count | 0/113 ETFs | Number of ETFs with Extension Z at or above +2.0. High counts argue for pullback discipline even when breadth is strong. |
| Washed-Out ETF Count | 0/113 ETFs | Number of ETFs with Extension Z at or below -1.25. High counts help identify repair candidates when breadth starts improving. |
| Average Group Z-Score Overlay | 0.00 avg group adjustment | Average group-level adjustment from return/MA z-scores. This is included in Strategy Score, Sleeve Bias Map, and Decision Playbook. |
| Risk Appetite Gauge | 36.6 / 100 | Broad ETF tape confirmation. Higher readings mean the tape is rewarding risk-taking. |
| Financial Conditions Ease | 23.7 / 100 | Macro risk-budget input from USD, rates, oil, VIX, and MOVE. Higher readings mean easier conditions. |
| S&P 500 Drawdown Risk | 54.1 / 100 | Downside-underwriting input. Higher readings mean drawdown risk is a larger constraint. |
| Options Pressure Composite | 40.3 / 100 (Low options pressure) | Validation-aware options-pressure input from options markets. High pressure is useful only when PM Action confirms add/watch rather than risk control. |
| Options Path Risk | 38.6 / 100 | High readings point to a rougher near-term path, protection demand, IV pressure, or weaker gamma support under the surface. |
Regime Decision Framework
| Portfolio State | What Has To Be True | PM Action |
|---|---|---|
| Add Broad Equity Risk | Indexes and sectors are both healthy; damage breadth is contained. | Own broad beta, reduce cash drag, and add to confirmed leaders. |
| Own Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market | Tech/growth is strong, but sector breadth is not broad enough. | Keep exposure concentrated in confirmed growth leadership; avoid broad-market overconfidence. |
| Favor Cyclicals And Economic Beta | Cyclicals lead, defensives lag, and damage remains controlled. | Favor discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, housing, and infrastructure if credit confirms. |
| Get Defensive | Defensive sectors lead while cyclicals lag. | Cut cyclical beta; prefer quality, staples, health care, utilities, real estate, or cash. |
| Participate, But Keep Quality Bias | Broad beta is usable and rates/credit are stable, but breadth is not strong enough for maximum risk. | Participate through higher-quality equity, duration, and credit expressions; avoid weak beta chase. |
| Favor Real Assets / Inflation Hedges | Commodity and real-asset groups lead while growth weakens. | Shift incremental risk toward energy, materials, metals, commodities, or inflation hedges. |
| Cut Risk And Wait For Repair | Damage breadth is high or fewer ETFs remain in intermediate uptrends. | Raise quality, reduce beta, use cash, and wait for breadth repair before adding risk. |
| Selective Only | Signals are strong in pockets but uneven across the whole map. | Use group diagnostics and VAMS confirmation to choose exposures one sleeve at a time. |
Rates / Credit Overview
This page translates the yield-curve institutional chartdeck into the equity strategy process. Rates and credit are the risk governor: they decide whether strong equity breadth should be chased, sized normally, or faded because compensation is poor.
Rates / Credit Group Score
Live ETF behavior from the Rates / Credit sleeve in prices.csv.
Yield Deck CIO Read
One-Page CIO View Portfolio-level read-through: what changed this week, what matters now, what to watch next, and best/worst risk expressions. CIO Read This is the one-page portfolio translation: what changed, what matters now, what to watch next, and the best/worst risk expressions implied by the rates-credit regime. What Changed This Week MOVE 14.80 10Y Yield 22 bps HY OAS 14 bps 2s10s 11 bps What Matters Now HY OAS 2.80 / 35 pctile IG OAS 0.79 / 31 pctile MOVE 96.00 / 74 pctile 10Y Real 2.85 / 100 pctile What To Watch Next Rates vol MOVE rising while spreads stay tight Curve confirmation 2s10s vs 3m10y signal divergence Quality cliff BBB/BB and CCC spread gaps Forward analogs Whether curr
Trade Translation Extract
Trade Dashboard Methodology Data Guardrails Forward Returns Executive Summary Macro Dashboard Curve Risk Policy / Inflation Credit Deep Dive Quality Premium Cross-Asset Yield Curve Credit Strategy Chartdeck Institutional rates and credit analysis using FRED Treasury, inflation, term-premium, corporate spread, recession, and Yahoo Finance market-proxy data. Latest Data 2026-09-25 Chart Start 2012-01-01 Charts 17 Series 60 Credit Summary Top-of-deck credit strategy page with spread compensation, curve pressure, real-rate pressure, and volatility stress markers. Credit Strategy Summary Current stance: Neutral / Mixed. HY OAS is 2.80 with a 35 percentile reading; IG OAS is 0.79 with a 31 percentile reading. The 10Y real yield is 2.85%, 2s10s is 31 bps, and 3m10y is 94 bps. What matters for credit: spread compensation, real-rate pressure, curve inversion persistence, and rates volatility are pulled onto one page before the full deck drills into the components. Credit Risk Premium HY OAS 2.8
Rates / Credit Dashboard Logic
| Area | Signal | Current Read |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Risk Premium | HY and IG spreads from the yield-curve deck frame whether credit beta is being paid enough. | Tight spread compensation; favor quality over lower-quality beta. |
| Rates Pressure | 2Y, 10Y, real yield, breakevens, and curve shape determine the duration/risk-asset discount-rate backdrop. | Real-yield pressure matters for equity duration and growth leadership. |
| Curve / Recession Signal | 2s10s and 3m10y show whether the curve is steepening, inverted, or normalizing. | Use curve shifts as a macro confirmation or warning signal. |
| Volatility Stress | MOVE and spread widening flag whether calm credit conditions are breaking. | If MOVE rises while spreads remain tight, reduce credit complacency. |
| Trade Translation | The yield deck converts rates, credit, curve, and volatility into candidate expressions. | Quality credit and duration are the governor on equity beta. |
Rates / Credit ETF Sleeve
| Ticker | Name | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STIP | Short-Term TIPS | Price proxy | 35.06 | 0.88 | -0.1% | -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 50.1% | 0.0% | False | False |
| SHY | 1-3 Year Treasury | Price proxy | 36.47 | 1.95 | -0.0% | -0.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 53.7% | 0.0% | False | False |
| TIP | TIPS | Price proxy | 30.46 | -3.01 | -0.7% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -2.5% | -1.7% | 0.0% | 38.6% | 0.0% | False | False |
| IEF | 7-10 Year Treasury | Price proxy | 29.04 | -4.42 | -0.9% | -2.4% | -2.6% | -2.8% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 35.1% | 0.0% | False | False |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | Price proxy | 22.50 | -15.04 | -2.4% | -3.5% | -4.0% | -4.9% | -6.9% | 0.0% | 20.4% | 4.3% | False | False |
| AGG | Aggregate Bonds | Price proxy | 31.05 | -4.07 | -0.9% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -2.4% | 0.0% | 40.1% | 0.0% | False | False |
| CWB | Convertible Bonds | Price proxy | 56.72 | 5.13 | 0.6% | -0.7% | 1.1% | -2.6% | 10.1% | 40.0% | 59.3% | 0.0% | False | True |
| EMLC | EM Local Currency Bonds | Price proxy | 31.17 | -4.78 | -0.9% | -2.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 40.4% | 0.0% | False | False |
| EMB | EM USD Bonds | Price proxy | 28.69 | -8.67 | -1.3% | -2.4% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -0.8% | 0.0% | 34.2% | 0.0% | False | False |
| HYG | High Yield Credit | Price proxy | 32.58 | -3.72 | -0.9% | -1.6% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | False | False |
| LQD | Investment Grade Credit | Price proxy | 28.57 | -9.38 | -1.4% | -2.2% | -2.0% | -3.2% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 33.9% | 0.0% | False | False |
| BKLN | Senior Loans | Price proxy | 83.72 | 1.24 | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 100.0% | 59.3% | 0.0% | True | True |
| MBB | Mortgage-Backed Bonds | Price proxy | 28.57 | -5.49 | -1.0% | -2.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% | -2.8% | 0.0% | 33.9% | 0.0% | False | False |
| PFF | Preferred Stock | Price proxy | 33.64 | -2.30 | -0.6% | -1.8% | -0.2% | -2.8% | -2.9% | 0.0% | 46.6% | 0.0% | False | False |
Rates / Credit Group Snapshot
| Group | ETFs | Strategy Score | Health | Health_1W_Chg | Return_1W | Return_1M | Return_3M | Trend_Breadth | Damage_Breadth | Above_50DMA | Above_200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates / Credit | 14 | 11.32 | 36.30 | -3.69 | -0.8% | -1.8% | -1.1% | 10.0% | 0.3% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Rates/Credit Condition | Equity Strategy Implication | Portfolio Translation |
|---|---|---|
| Spreads tight + breadth strong | Risk-on can continue, but forward compensation is less forgiving. | Participate through quality leadership, avoid weak-credit beta chase. |
| Spreads widening + breadth deteriorating | Equity signal is being invalidated by credit stress. | Cut beta, raise quality, increase cash/duration ballast. |
| Yields falling + defensives leading | Could be duration relief or growth scare; breadth decides which. | Check whether cyclicals confirm before adding broad beta. |
| Real yields rising + growth extended | Higher discount-rate pressure can hit long-duration equity leadership. | Keep tech/growth exposure selective and watch breadth divergence. |
Positioning Overview
This page translates the CFTC positioning deck into the weekly strategy process without embedding the full source deck. Positioning is the sponsorship and crowding layer: it helps decide whether price and breadth strength are still early, well-owned, or vulnerable to a positioning unwind.
CFTC Dashboard Read
CFTC Positioning Dashboard An institutional view of who is long, who is short, where positioning is crowded, and whether futures behavior confirms or conflicts with price. Includes net spec, asset manager, hedge fund/leveraged money, retail/non-reportable, commercial/dealer, open interest, gross crowding, z-score, percentile, and week-over-week change lenses. Assets Covered 17 Latest CFTC Data 09/22/2026 Core Lens Asset Managers + Hedge Funds Most Crowded Long Highest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. Copper 100.0% 5-Year Treasury Notes 100.0% 2-Year Treasury Notes 99.4% Most Crowded Short Lowest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. SOFR-3M 6.4% VIX 7.7% Russell 2000 9.6% Price / Positioning Confirmation Assets where 13-week price action and institutional/HF positioning are moving together. Nasdaq 100 4.7% price / 29.7K pos Crude Oil 29.5% price / 19.0K pos Gold 6.0% price / 12.0K pos Silver 9.0% price / 1.6K pos Al
Weekly Tactical Highlights
Weekly And Tactical Highlights Largest one-week positioning moves, plus the 4-week and 13-week context that separates noise from a real allocation shift. Asset WoW Inst/HF 4W Inst/HF 13W Inst/HF 13W Price Read SOFR-3M 361.8K -24.1K 132.6K -0.2% Buying Into Weakness 10-Year Treasury Notes -162.4K 146.7K 149.1K -3.1% Buying Into Weakness 5-Year Treasury Notes 57.4K 56.2K 115.1K -2.3% Buying Into Weakness S&P 500 -52.7K -79.1K -60.4K 5.4% Price Up / Positioning Fading Natural Gas 34.7K 6.1K 17.2K -5.6% Buying Into Weakness Euro FX -33.8K -33.3K -49.5K 0.6% Price Up / Positioning Fading Japanese Yen -28.0K 146.2K 224.5K -2.6% Buying Into Weakness Nasdaq 100 -18.9K 9.6K 29.7K 4.7% Trend Confirmed 2-Year Treasury Notes -18.8K 43.2K 189.6K -0.9% Buying Into Weakness Copper 17.4K 6.3K 16.0K 11.0% Trend Confirmed
Cross-Asset Positioning Snapshot
Cross-Asset Dashboard Weekly Highlights Full Metric Library S&P 500 Nasdaq 100 Russell 2000 Natural Gas Crude Oil Gold Silver Copper Bitcoin US Dollar Euro FX Japanese Yen VIX SOFR-3M 2-Year Treasury Notes 5-Year Treasury Notes 10-Year Treasury Notes Positioning data is sourced directly from the official CFTC Public Reporting API. Prices use Yahoo Finance. Apex Macro Research CFTC Positioning Dashboard An institutional view of who is long, who is short, where positioning is crowded, and whether futures behavior confirms or conflicts with price. Includes net spec, asset manager, hedge fund/leveraged money, retail/non-reportable, commercial/dealer, open interest, gross crowding, z-score, percentile, and week-over-week change lenses. Assets Covered 17 Latest CFTC Data 09/22/2026 Core Lens Asset Managers + Hedge Funds Most Crowded Long Highest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. Copper 100.0% 5-Year Treasury Notes 100.0% 2-Year Treasury Notes 99.4% Most C
Actionable Positioning Playbook
| Setup | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Crowded long + price/breadth confirmation | High positioning percentile, positive 13W price, and supportive breadth. | Maintain exposure, but add only on clean pullbacks or fresh breadth expansion. |
| Crowded long + positioning fading | Price rises while institutional/HF positioning rolls over. | Treat as narrowing sponsorship; reduce chase risk and watch for reversal. |
| Crowded short + price stabilization | Low positioning percentile while price and/or breadth stop deteriorating. | Add to repair watchlist; squeeze risk can be favorable if macro backdrop confirms. |
| SOFR-3M crowded short | Low institutional/HF percentile in SOFR futures with weak front-end futures price action. | Treat as front-end funding or hawkish-policy pressure. It informs rates/FCI/MOVE risk control, but it does not directly change the equity CFTC overlay. |
| Large WoW positioning add | One-week institutional/HF flow is one of the largest in the table. | Check whether this is confirmation of a trend or late crowding into an extended move. |
| Large WoW positioning cut | One-week institutional/HF selling is concentrated in an asset. | Use as a risk warning when price is also weak; use as contrarian fuel only if price holds. |
Rates / Funding Positioning Lens
SOFR-3M and Treasury futures are treated separately from equity-index futures. They help interpret policy-rate, funding, duration, MOVE, and financial-conditions pressure. They do not directly drive the equity CFTC overlay, which remains based on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 futures.
| Asset | Role | Current Read | PM Translation |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR-3M | Front-end policy / funding | Crowded Short; percentile 6.4%; 13W price -0.2%; 13W Inst/HF 132.6K | Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay. |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | Treasury duration | Crowded Long; percentile 98.7%; 13W price -3.1%; 13W Inst/HF 149.1K | Duration is crowded long; avoid assuming further rate relief without price confirmation and credit stability. |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | Treasury duration | Crowded Long; percentile 99.4%; 13W price -0.9%; 13W Inst/HF 189.6K | Duration is crowded long; avoid assuming further rate relief without price confirmation and credit stability. |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | Treasury duration | Crowded Long; percentile 100.0%; 13W price -2.3%; 13W Inst/HF 115.1K | Duration is crowded long; avoid assuming further rate relief without price confirmation and credit stability. |
Positioning Visual Dashboard
Use these visuals first. They condense the long CFTC tables into three questions: what is crowded, what is confirming price, and where did positioning change most this week?
| Asset | Price 13W | OI 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5.4% | -4.5% | 29.6% | 43.6% | -60.4K | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Nasdaq 100 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 54.5% | 29.7K | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Russell 2000 | -2.5% | 7.3% | -18.1% | 9.6% | -23.9K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Natural Gas | -5.6% | 13.9% | -3.6% | 42.9% | 17.2K | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness |
| Crude Oil | 29.5% | -3.7% | 5.5% | 51.9% | 19.0K | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Gold | 6.0% | 17.2% | 30.9% | 46.8% | 12.0K | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Silver | 9.0% | -2.3% | 12.5% | 31.4% | 1.6K | Short Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
| Copper | 11.0% | 12.2% | 27.4% | 100.0% | 16.0K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| Bitcoin | 37.5% | 8.6% | -21.4% | 51.9% | -1.2K | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| US Dollar | 0.1% | -15.6% | 26.5% | 70.5% | -1.1K | Long Tilt | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Euro FX | 0.6% | 4.6% | 23.1% | 15.4% | -49.5K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Japanese Yen | -2.6% | -12.1% | 13.0% | 84.6% | 224.5K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| VIX | -27.1% | 16.7% | -17.1% | 7.7% | -26.9K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| SOFR-3M | -0.2% | -4.0% | -25.6% | 6.4% | 132.6K | Crowded Short | Buying Into Weakness |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -0.9% | 0.1% | 9.2% | 99.4% | 189.6K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | -2.3% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 100.0% | 115.1K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | -3.1% | 2.6% | 11.2% | 98.7% | 149.1K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
Asset-By-Asset Strategist Takeaways
This table is meant to be enough for the weekly meeting: what price did, how crowded institutional/HF positioning is, whether the pressure read confirms or diverges, and the resulting strategy implication.
| Asset | 13W Price | Positioning Percentile | COT Read | Pressure Read | Strategist Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5.4% | 43.6% | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Balanced / mid-range. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| Nasdaq 100 | 4.7% | 54.5% | Balanced | Trend Confirmed | Balanced / mid-range. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Russell 2000 | -2.5% | 9.6% | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation | Crowded short. Watch for squeeze/repair if price stabilizes. |
| Natural Gas | -5.6% | 42.9% | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness | Balanced / mid-range. Positioning is not the binding constraint. |
| Crude Oil | 29.5% | 51.9% | Balanced | Trend Confirmed | Balanced / mid-range. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Gold | 6.0% | 46.8% | Balanced | Trend Confirmed | Balanced / mid-range. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Silver | 9.0% | 31.4% | Short Tilt | Trend Confirmed | Balanced / mid-range. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Copper | 11.0% | 100.0% | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed | Crowded long. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Bitcoin | 37.5% | 51.9% | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Balanced / mid-range. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| US Dollar | 0.1% | 70.5% | Long Tilt | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Balanced / mid-range. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| Euro FX | 0.6% | 15.4% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Crowded short. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| Japanese Yen | -2.6% | 84.6% | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded long. Do not chase without fresh breadth or price confirmation. |
| VIX | -27.1% | 7.7% | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation | Crowded short. Watch for squeeze/repair if price stabilizes. |
| SOFR-3M | -0.2% | 6.4% | Crowded Short | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded short. Watch for squeeze/repair if price stabilizes. |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -0.9% | 99.4% | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded long. Do not chase without fresh breadth or price confirmation. |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | -2.3% | 100.0% | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded long. Do not chase without fresh breadth or price confirmation. |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | -3.1% | 98.7% | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded long. Do not chase without fresh breadth or price confirmation. |
Cross-Asset CFTC Dashboard
This is the highest-level positioning table from the source deck: price trend, open interest, institutional/HF positioning percentile, net positioning, and pressure read.
| Asset | Positioning Bucket | Latest Date | Price 13W | OI 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | Asset Manager Net | Lev Money Net | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Equity Index | 2026-09-22 | 5.4% | -4.5% | 29.6% | 43.6% | -60.4K | 934.5K | -375.6K | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Nasdaq 100 | Equity Index | 2026-09-22 | 4.7% | 8.0% | 14.5% | 54.5% | 29.7K | 72.2K | -30.7K | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Russell 2000 | Equity Index | 2026-09-22 | -2.5% | 7.3% | -18.1% | 9.6% | -23.9K | 33.0K | -108.0K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Natural Gas | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | -5.6% | 13.9% | -3.6% | 42.9% | 17.2K | n/a | -65.5K | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness |
| Crude Oil | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 29.5% | -3.7% | 5.5% | 51.9% | 19.0K | n/a | 101.8K | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Gold | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 6.0% | 17.2% | 30.9% | 46.8% | 12.0K | n/a | 127.4K | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Silver | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 9.0% | -2.3% | 12.5% | 31.4% | 1.6K | n/a | 13.3K | Short Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
| Copper | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 11.0% | 12.2% | 27.4% | 100.0% | 16.0K | n/a | 82.5K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| Bitcoin | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 37.5% | 8.6% | -21.4% | 51.9% | -1.2K | 3.2K | -8.0K | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| US Dollar | FX | 2026-09-22 | 0.1% | -15.6% | 26.5% | 70.5% | -1.1K | 16.8K | -4.5K | Long Tilt | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Euro FX | FX | 2026-09-22 | 0.6% | 4.6% | 23.1% | 15.4% | -49.5K | 216.5K | -26.7K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Japanese Yen | FX | 2026-09-22 | -2.6% | -12.1% | 13.0% | 84.6% | 224.5K | 41.6K | 7.4K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| VIX | Volatility | 2026-09-22 | -27.1% | 16.7% | -17.1% | 7.7% | -26.9K | -55.4K | -15.0K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| SOFR-3M | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | -0.2% | -4.0% | -25.6% | 6.4% | 132.6K | -682.2K | -2.4M | Crowded Short | Buying Into Weakness |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | -0.9% | 0.1% | 9.2% | 99.4% | 189.6K | 1.8M | -1.4M | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | -2.3% | 6.2% | 13.0% | 100.0% | 115.1K | 2.7M | -1.9M | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | -3.1% | 2.6% | 11.2% | 98.7% | 149.1K | 2.5M | -1.9M | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
Most Crowded Longs
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Copper | 11.0% | 27.4% | 100.0% | 16.0K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | -2.3% | 13.0% | 100.0% | 115.1K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -0.9% | 9.2% | 99.4% | 189.6K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | -3.1% | 11.2% | 98.7% | 149.1K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| Japanese Yen | -2.6% | 13.0% | 84.6% | 224.5K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| US Dollar | 0.1% | 26.5% | 70.5% | -1.1K | Long Tilt | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
Most Crowded Shorts
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR-3M | -0.2% | -25.6% | 6.4% | 132.6K | Crowded Short | Buying Into Weakness |
| VIX | -27.1% | -17.1% | 7.7% | -26.9K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Russell 2000 | -2.5% | -18.1% | 9.6% | -23.9K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Euro FX | 0.6% | 23.1% | 15.4% | -49.5K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Silver | 9.0% | 12.5% | 31.4% | 1.6K | Short Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
| Natural Gas | -5.6% | -3.6% | 42.9% | 17.2K | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness |
Week-Over-Week Positioning Changes
Largest institutional/HF positioning adds and cuts. Use these to separate fresh sponsorship from crowded late-cycle chasing.
Largest WoW Buying
| Asset | WoW Inst/HF | 4W Inst/HF | 13W Inst/HF | 13W Price | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR-3M | 361.8K | -24.1K | 132.6K | -0.2% | Buying Into Weakness |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | 57.4K | 56.2K | 115.1K | -2.3% | Buying Into Weakness |
| Natural Gas | 34.7K | 6.1K | 17.2K | -5.6% | Buying Into Weakness |
| Copper | 17.4K | 6.3K | 16.0K | 11.0% | Trend Confirmed |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -18.8K | 43.2K | 189.6K | -0.9% | Buying Into Weakness |
| Nasdaq 100 | -18.9K | 9.6K | 29.7K | 4.7% | Trend Confirmed |
Largest WoW Selling
| Asset | WoW Inst/HF | 4W Inst/HF | 13W Inst/HF | 13W Price | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | -162.4K | 146.7K | 149.1K | -3.1% | Buying Into Weakness |
| S&P 500 | -52.7K | -79.1K | -60.4K | 5.4% | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Euro FX | -33.8K | -33.3K | -49.5K | 0.6% | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Japanese Yen | -28.0K | 146.2K | 224.5K | -2.6% | Buying Into Weakness |
| Nasdaq 100 | -18.9K | 9.6K | 29.7K | 4.7% | Trend Confirmed |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -18.8K | 43.2K | 189.6K | -0.9% | Buying Into Weakness |
Confirmation And Divergence
Trend Confirmed
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF 13W | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 4.7% | 29.7K | 54.5% | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Crude Oil | 29.5% | 19.0K | 51.9% | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Gold | 6.0% | 12.0K | 46.8% | Balanced | Trend Confirmed |
| Silver | 9.0% | 1.6K | 31.4% | Short Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
| Copper | 11.0% | 16.0K | 100.0% | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
Price Up / Positioning Fading
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF 13W | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 5.4% | -60.4K | 43.6% | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Bitcoin | 37.5% | -1.2K | 51.9% | Balanced | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| US Dollar | 0.1% | -1.1K | 70.5% | Long Tilt | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Euro FX | 0.6% | -49.5K | 15.4% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
Important Weekly Positioning Charts
| Chart / Table | Weekly Question |
|---|---|
| Cross-Asset Dashboard | Which assets are crowded long, crowded short, or trend confirmed? |
| Weekly And Tactical Highlights | Where did institutional/HF positioning change most over 1W, 4W, and 13W? |
| S&P 500 Positioning | Is broad equity beta sponsored by positioning or exposed to a crowding unwind? |
| Nasdaq 100 Positioning | Is growth leadership still supported or becoming a crowded long? |
| Russell 2000 Positioning | Is small-cap exposure washed out enough to support repair or still structurally weak? |
| SOFR-3M Positioning | Is front-end policy/funding positioning leaning toward tighter or easier rate expectations? |
| 2Y / 5Y / 10Y Treasury Positioning | Is the rates view being driven by front-end policy expectations, belly duration, or long-end duration? |
| US Dollar, Euro FX, And Japanese Yen | Are FX futures flows confirming or challenging the dollar/liquidity backdrop? |
| Crude Oil And Natural Gas | Are energy positioning flows confirming inflation-sensitive commodity pressure or fading it? |
| Gold, Silver, Copper, And Bitcoin | Are real-asset and liquidity-sensitive positioning flows supporting the macro risk read? |
Selected Full Metric Library
Condensed source-table fields that matter most for weekly strategy: price, open interest, institutional/HF net exposure, z-score, percentile, and positioning changes over 1W, 4W, and 13W.
| Asset | Positioning Bucket | Latest Date | Latest Price | Price 4W | Price 13W | Open Interest | OI 4W | OI 13W | Inst/HF Net | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 1Y Z | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF WoW | Inst/HF 4W | Inst/HF 13W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Equity Index | 2026-09-22 | 773.4 | 1.0% | 5.4% | 1.9M | -7.6% | -4.5% | 558.9K | 29.6% | -0.01 | 43.6% | -52.7K | -79.1K | -60.4K |
| Nasdaq 100 | Equity Index | 2026-09-22 | 747.5 | 5.2% | 4.7% | 286.3K | -5.2% | 8.0% | 41.5K | 14.5% | -0.16 | 54.5% | -18.9K | 9.6K | 29.7K |
| Russell 2000 | Equity Index | 2026-09-22 | 287.2 | -3.8% | -2.5% | 415.0K | 0.5% | 7.3% | -75.0K | -18.1% | -0.84 | 9.6% | -2.0K | 10.4K | -23.9K |
| Natural Gas | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 10.9 | 6.2% | -5.6% | 1.8M | 5.1% | 13.9% | -65.5K | -3.6% | 0.33 | 42.9% | 34.7K | 6.1K | 17.2K |
| Crude Oil | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 144.1 | 14.2% | 29.5% | 1.8M | -3.4% | -3.7% | 101.8K | 5.5% | 1.04 | 51.9% | -4.5K | 17.8K | 19.0K |
| Gold | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 400.1 | -6.5% | 6.0% | 412.8K | -3.5% | 17.2% | 127.4K | 30.9% | 0.81 | 46.8% | -5.7K | -17.4K | 12.0K |
| Silver | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 60.7 | -2.6% | 9.0% | 106.5K | -6.4% | -2.3% | 13.3K | 12.5% | -0.11 | 31.4% | 185.0 | -764.0 | 1.6K |
| Copper | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 41.4 | 1.6% | 11.0% | 301.7K | 6.5% | 12.2% | 82.5K | 27.4% | 1.77 | 100.0% | 17.4K | 6.3K | 16.0K |
| Bitcoin | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-09-22 | 86.2K | 9.7% | 37.5% | 22.3K | 0.4% | 8.6% | -4.8K | -21.4% | 0.08 | 51.9% | -1.2K | 362.0 | -1.2K |
| US Dollar | FX | 2026-09-22 | 28.5 | 1.9% | 0.1% | 46.3K | -3.4% | -15.6% | 12.3K | 26.5% | 0.77 | 70.5% | 1.4K | -10.9K | -1.1K |
| Euro FX | FX | 2026-09-22 | 1.1 | -1.9% | 0.6% | 821.7K | 0.4% | 4.6% | 189.8K | 23.1% | -1.36 | 15.4% | -33.8K | -33.3K | -49.5K |
| Japanese Yen | FX | 2026-09-22 | 157.5 | -1.1% | -2.6% | 378.7K | -1.4% | -12.1% | 49.1K | 13.0% | 1.55 | 84.6% | -28.0K | 146.2K | 224.5K |
| VIX | Volatility | 2026-09-22 | 14.2 | -8.0% | -27.1% | 412.3K | 8.9% | 16.7% | -70.4K | -17.1% | -1.12 | 7.7% | -1.2K | -17.4K | -26.9K |
| SOFR-3M | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | 95.8 | -0.3% | -0.2% | 12.2M | -6.2% | -4.0% | -3.1M | -25.6% | -1.28 | 6.4% | 361.8K | -24.1K | 132.6K |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | 102.1 | -0.9% | -0.9% | 4.5M | -3.0% | 0.1% | 419.3K | 9.2% | 1.99 | 99.4% | -18.8K | 43.2K | 189.6K |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | 104.4 | -1.9% | -2.3% | 6.6M | -5.9% | 6.2% | 858.9K | 13.0% | 1.79 | 100.0% | 57.4K | 56.2K | 115.1K |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-09-22 | 106.0 | -2.6% | -3.1% | 5.4M | -12.9% | 2.6% | 604.4K | 11.2% | 1.64 | 98.7% | -162.4K | 146.7K | 149.1K |
Trader Category Split
Use this to see whether the move is asset-manager led, leveraged-money led, retail-supported, or being absorbed by commercials.
| Asset | Asset Manager Net | Lev Money Net | Retail Net | Retail %OI | Commercial Net | Commercial 3Y %ile | Asset Mgr L/S | Lev Money L/S | Broad Spec Gross %OI | Institutional/HF Gross %OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 934.5K | -375.6K | 104.3K | 5.5% | -634.2K | 69.2% | 6.07 | 0.24 | 108.3% | 101.5% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 72.2K | -30.7K | 9.6K | 3.4% | -58.4K | 49.4% | 3.12 | 0.64 | 105.8% | 97.4% |
| Russell 2000 | 33.0K | -108.0K | 7.4K | 1.8% | 75.7K | 91.7% | 1.28 | 0.41 | 131.5% | 127.6% |
| Natural Gas | n/a | -65.5K | 13.0K | 0.7% | -23.7K | 61.5% | n/a | 0.8 | 45.1% | 32.6% |
| Crude Oil | n/a | 101.8K | 28.8K | 1.6% | 302.9K | 84.6% | n/a | 1.84 | 31.5% | 18.7% |
| Gold | n/a | 127.4K | 37.0K | 9.0% | -26.8K | 81.4% | n/a | 16.33 | 68.3% | 34.9% |
| Silver | n/a | 13.3K | 19.3K | 18.1% | -18.5K | 80.8% | n/a | 3.22 | 41.3% | 23.8% |
| Copper | n/a | 82.5K | 9.9K | 3.3% | -112.6K | 1.9% | n/a | 6.94 | 55.8% | 36.6% |
| Bitcoin | 3.2K | -8.0K | 353.0 | 1.6% | 3.6K | 43.6% | 2.77 | 0.37 | 112.8% | 108.4% |
| US Dollar | 16.8K | -4.5K | 1.8K | 4.0% | -15.5K | 29.5% | 8.72 | 0.74 | 124.2% | 111.3% |
| Euro FX | 216.5K | -26.7K | 23.4K | 2.8% | -221.0K | 85.9% | 1.81 | 0.81 | 127.4% | 122.1% |
| Japanese Yen | 41.6K | 7.4K | 4.4K | 1.2% | -108.3K | 22.4% | 1.6 | 1.09 | 110.5% | 94.6% |
| VIX | -55.4K | -15.0K | 2.2K | 0.5% | 66.9K | 91.7% | 0.45 | 0.84 | 79.2% | 78.0% |
| SOFR-3M | -682.2K | -2.4M | 3.1K | 0.0% | 3.2M | 95.5% | 0.62 | 0.28 | 62.8% | 59.5% |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | 1.8M | -1.4M | 45.2K | 1.0% | -523.5K | 1.9% | 3.79 | 0.35 | 140.5% | 128.7% |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | 2.7M | -1.9M | 40.8K | 0.6% | -933.3K | 1.3% | 3.35 | 0.26 | 129.8% | 124.1% |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | 2.5M | -1.9M | -14.3K | -0.3% | -580.7K | 2.6% | 4.22 | 0.2 | 137.3% | 128.9% |
| Positioning Setup | Cross-Check | Strategy Translation |
|---|---|---|
| Crowded long + strong breadth | Price trend, ETF health, and CFTC positioning all agree. | Maintain exposure, but avoid chasing if weekly breadth momentum fades. |
| Crowded long + weak breadth | Positioning is extended while internal confirmation deteriorates. | Reduce position size, tighten stops, or shift toward less crowded expressions. |
| Crowded short + improving breadth | Positioning is washed out while price/breadth repair begins. | Potential squeeze or early rotation candidate. |
| Neutral positioning + improving price | Price and breadth improve before the crowd has fully moved in. | Cleaner entry setup if rates/credit are not deteriorating. |
VAMS Signal
This page pulls the current VAMS flip tape directly into the strategist deck. It focuses on the fresh weekly buys and sells, then shows the individual price/VAMS chart and VAMS strategy backtest for each new buy first and each new sell underneath.
Current VAMS Tape
Volatility-adjusted momentum signal state across the ETF universe.
How To Use
Fresh buys are candidates where momentum has improved enough to flip into risk-on state. Fresh sells identify exposures where VAMS has moved into risk-withheld state. The backtest panel underneath each signal shows whether the model has historically improved the buy-and-hold profile for that specific ticker.
Source
Generated from the weekly VAMS Signal Chartdeck without embedding the whole HTML deck.
VAMS By PM Group
This translates the VAMS universe into the same PM groups used by the Sleeve Bias Map and Top-Down Map, so fresh buys/sells can be read as regime evidence instead of isolated ticker flips.
| Group | ETFs | VAMS Buy Rate | Buy Signals | Sell Signals | Fresh Buys | Fresh Sells |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2 | 100.0% | XLK, SMH | n/a | XLK | n/a |
| US Index / Size | 1 | 100.0% | DIA | n/a | DIA | n/a |
| Core Index Beta | 3 | 66.7% | SPY, QQQ | IWM | SPY | n/a |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 4 | 50.0% | CPER, BTC-USD | GLD, SLV | n/a | SLV |
| Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | 2 | 50.0% | ETH-USD | CL=F | n/a | CL=F |
| International Equity | 9 | 44.4% | INDA, EEM, KWEB, ACWX | DAX, EWJ, ARGT, EWZ, EZU | KWEB, ACWX | n/a |
| Cyclical Sectors | 7 | 28.6% | XLC, XHB | XLY, XLF, XLE, XLI, XLB | XLC, XHB | n/a |
| Defensive Sectors | 4 | 25.0% | XLV | XLU, XLRE, XLP | n/a | n/a |
| Rates / Credit | 4 | 0.0% | n/a | SHY, TLT, LQD, HYG | n/a | TLT |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 2 | 0.0% | n/a | KRE, IAK | n/a | n/a |
| Metals / Miners | 2 | 0.0% | n/a | GDX, SIL | n/a | n/a |
| Style / Market Structure | 1 | 0.0% | n/a | VO | n/a | n/a |
Fresh Signal Flip Tables
Fresh VAMS Buys
| Ticker | Name | Group | WoW Signal Change | Current Signal | Current VAMS | VAMS 5D Change | Signal Since | 5D Return | 1M Return | 3M Return | Signal Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | US Sector | New Buy | Buy | 0.48 | 0.05 | 2026-09-21 | 3.5% | 4.8% | 11.6% | 5.01 |
| SPY | S&P 500 | US Index / Size | New Buy | Buy | 0.42 | 0.24 | 2026-09-23 | 1.3% | 0.2% | 4.4% | 4.48 |
| XLC | Communications | US Sector | New Buy | Buy | 0.37 | 0.90 | 2026-09-21 | 1.9% | 0.8% | 6.3% | 4.10 |
| XHB | Homebuilders | Industries | New Buy | Buy | 0.30 | 0.51 | 2026-09-25 | 2.0% | -4.8% | -9.3% | 3.51 |
| ACWX | World Ex. U.S. | International Equity | New Buy | Buy | 0.23 | 0.11 | 2026-09-22 | 0.8% | -2.1% | 3.7% | 2.88 |
| KWEB | China Tech | International Equity | New Buy | Buy | -0.15 | -0.39 | 2026-09-21 | -1.0% | -5.6% | -6.5% | 2.26 |
| DIA | Dow Jones | US Index / Size | New Buy | Buy | 0.09 | 0.40 | 2026-09-21 | 0.3% | -3.1% | -0.2% | 1.77 |
Fresh VAMS Sells
| Ticker | Name | Group | WoW Signal Change | Current Signal | Current VAMS | VAMS 5D Change | Signal Since | 5D Return | 1M Return | 3M Return | Signal Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury Bonds | Bonds / Credit | New Sell | Sell | -0.79 | -1.04 | 2026-09-23 | -2.4% | -3.5% | -4.7% | 7.59 |
| CL=F | Oil | Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New Sell | Sell | -0.61 | -0.22 | 2026-09-22 | -7.8% | 1.0% | 3.5% | 6.09 |
| SLV | Silver | Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New Sell | Sell | -0.28 | -0.68 | 2026-09-23 | -3.0% | -2.8% | 10.6% | 3.34 |
Fresh Buy Individual Charts And Backtests
XLK - Technology
US Sector | New BuySPY - S&P 500
US Index / Size | New BuyXLC - Communications
US Sector | New BuyXHB - Homebuilders
Industries | New BuyACWX - World Ex. U.S.
International Equity | New BuyKWEB - China Tech
International Equity | New BuyDIA - Dow Jones
US Index / Size | New BuyFresh Sell Individual Charts And Backtests
TLT - 20+ Year Treasury Bonds
Bonds / Credit | New SellCL=F - Oil
Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New SellSLV - Silver
Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New SellOptions Intelligence
This page pulls the current Options Intelligence deck into the strategist workflow without embedding the full source deck. It is the validation-aware risk-transfer layer: it asks whether raw options pressure is historically helpful or harmful, then uses calm tape, near-term path risk, protection demand, urgent hedge demand, IV pressure, gamma stability, and leadership call chase to size the decision.
Current Options Read
Risk-Transfer Drivers
PM Translation
Options pressure composite is 40.3 / 100 (Low options pressure); calm tape 67.7; near-term path risk 38.6; protection demand 40.7; urgent hedge demand 53.0; leadership call chase 42.1; gamma stability 73.8; IV pressure 34.9; macro-options transmission 53.9; pressure confirmation 41.8; allocation overlay +0.0.
Highest-confidence current reads: TLT, META, XLE. Highest near-term movement-risk reads: XLB, XLE, IEF. Risk-control validation flags AMZN, GLD, GOOGL, SLV; high options pressure is not automatically bullish for those tickers.
Options Gauge History Panels
Core options reads shown with SPY above each signal. This keeps the macro dashboard clean while preserving the richer visual context on the Options page.
Highest-Value Options Reads
These tables use the Options deck's validation-aware action fields. A high score is not automatically bullish; PM Action gives the portfolio translation, while Forward Return Evidence shows the actual historical median 20D/60D/120D returns for the current setup bucket when enough observations exist.
Options Driver Definitions
All component scores are 0-100 reads from the Options Intelligence deck. Higher is not always bullish. The primary allocation score is Options Pressure Composite; PM Action, Validation Read, and Forward Return Evidence decide whether that pressure has historically been favorable, unfavorable, contrarian, or only context for each symbol.
Full Options Summary
Sleeve Bias Map
A plain-English implementation map. The same breadth, ETF trend/z-score, rates/credit, CFTC, VAMS, Options Intelligence, and macro-risk inputs still run beneath it, but the published output is the current directional lean rather than a percentage allocation. Price/breadth as of 2026-09-25; breadth metrics as of 2026-09-25; CFTC positioning as of 2026-09-22; VAMS as of 2026-09-25; Options as of 2026-09-24.
Directional Sleeve Calls
Green means favor ownership or add on pullbacks. Yellow means hold selectively because confirmation is mixed, incomplete, or extended. Red means reduce, avoid new exposure, or wait for repair. Gray is optional reserve capital.
| Sleeve | Proxy | Lean | Action | Conviction | Weekly Change | Why It Leans | What Changes It |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | XLK / SMH / AIQ / IGV basket | Bullish | Favor / add on pullbacks | High | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Macro. | Loss of breadth, VAMS confirmation, or a new macro/options risk veto. |
| Style / Market Structure | IWF / IWD / VO / MAGS / XMAG | Bullish | Favor / add on pullbacks | Medium | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, Options, Positioning. Watch VAMS, Macro. | Loss of breadth, VAMS confirmation, or a new macro/options risk veto. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | GLD / DBC / USO / BTC-USD / UUP | Neutral / selective | Hold / be selective | Medium | Improving | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Macro. | Broad confirmation from breadth, VAMS, macro, and options is needed before upgrading. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Cash / T-bills | Neutral / reserve | Keep reserve | Low | No saved comparison yet | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Use only when the wider risk budget improves or a specific repair opportunity appears. |
| Core Index Beta | SPY / QQQ / IWM / RSP | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Cyclical Sectors | XLY / XLC / XLE / XLF / XLI / XLB / XHB | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Defensive Sectors | XLP / XLV / XLU / XLRE | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | KRE / IAK / IHI / IHF / XBI | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | PAVE / ITA / XTL / CARZ / XHB / ITB | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Metals / Miners | GDX / GDXJ / SIL / XME / COPX | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Rates / Credit | AGG / LQD / IEF / TLT / HYG | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | ARKK / UFO / BJK / PEJ / PINK | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Low | Improving | Confirmation comes from Positioning. Watch Breadth, VAMS, Options, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | MTUM / QUAL / SPHB / SPLV / SPHD | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Medium | Improving | Confirmation comes from Breadth, Options, Positioning. Watch VAMS, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
| International Equity | EEM / EZU / INDA / DXJ | Bearish | Reduce / wait for repair | Medium | Deteriorating | Confirmation comes from VAMS, Options, Positioning. Watch Breadth, Macro. | Repair in breadth and momentum, with risk conditions no longer constraining the sleeve. |
Internal audit layer: optimized base weights, score tilts, regime tilts, and live positioning, VAMS, financial-conditions, and Options adjustments are still calculated every run. They are intentionally held behind the decision output so a PM or FA can see the call first and inspect the Evidence Matrix or Methodology only when needed.
Top-Down Map
Starts with broad indexes, then sectors, then industry/theme groups. This is the decision path: first decide market beta, then sector exposure, then the smaller expressions.
Group Heatmap Table
This replaces the old single-scale chart heatmap. Each column is colored in a way that fits the metric, so returns, breadth scores, and damage can be read together without distorting the colors.
| Group | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Leadership | Damage | >50DMA | >200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2.6% | 3.1% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 25.7% | 80.13 | 12.91 | 84.3% | 72.7% | 3.7% | 83.3% | 91.7% |
| Style / Market Structure | 1.1% | -0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 9.7% | 68.21 | 8.44 | 60.0% | 65.5% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 12.3% | 64.23 | 4.78 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 0.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Core Index Beta | 1.2% | -0.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 11.7% | 51.57 | 4.80 | 54.6% | 39.7% | 8.0% | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| International Equity | -0.1% | -2.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 5.6% | 51.74 | 0.58 | 42.5% | 46.6% | 6.7% | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | -0.8% | -1.1% | 7.7% | -1.3% | 5.1% | 57.31 | -4.01 | 56.7% | 56.5% | 38.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | -0.7% | -4.4% | -0.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 44.41 | -4.00 | 36.0% | 35.8% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Rates / Credit | -0.8% | -1.8% | -1.1% | -1.6% | -0.8% | 36.30 | -3.69 | 10.0% | 42.1% | 0.3% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 0.7% | -2.0% | -0.6% | -6.9% | -0.8% | 36.63 | 5.96 | 13.3% | 51.3% | 32.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | -0.6% | -4.0% | -0.3% | -1.3% | 9.5% | 36.43 | -2.23 | 21.2% | 39.7% | 26.8% | 12.5% | 31.2% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 0.1% | -3.1% | -1.1% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 19.56 | -0.22 | 28.4% | 2.2% | 21.2% | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| Metals / Miners | -2.0% | -5.9% | 11.9% | 2.2% | -0.7% | 41.37 | -11.86 | 38.0% | 40.1% | 45.1% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Defensive Sectors | -0.8% | -3.7% | -4.8% | -1.0% | 1.7% | 18.33 | -0.68 | 24.9% | 3.5% | 32.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
PM Action Map
Same groups, translated into action language. The table also shows the leading and lagging ETFs inside each group so the group read is not too broad to trade.
| Group | PM Action | Strategy Score | Health | Damage | VAMS Buy Rate | Options Read | Leaders | Laggards | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| International Equity | Bearish / reduce | 22.20 | 51.74 | 6.7% | 44.4% | No direct options read | DXJ, EEM, EWZ | FXI, EWA, INDA | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Bearish / reduce | 20.97 | 57.31 | 38.7% | 50.0% | Risk-control validation in GLD, SLV | BTC-USD, CPER, DBC | PALL, URA, SLV | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Bearish / reduce | 15.45 | 44.41 | 7.3% | 0.0% | Mixed options tape in KRE | IBB, IHE, IHF | PSP, IHI, IAK | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Rates / Credit | Bearish / reduce | 11.32 | 36.30 | 0.3% | 0.0% | Validated options pressure in TLT, IEF, LQD | BKLN, CWB, SHY | TLT, LQD, MBB | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Bearish / reduce | 8.35 | 36.63 | 32.7% | n/a | Mixed options tape in TSLA | PINK, PEJ, UFO | UFO, PEJ, PINK | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Bearish / reduce | 6.53 | 36.43 | 26.8% | n/a | No direct options read | CARZ, CRAK, JETS | NUKZ, XTN, XES | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Cyclical Sectors | Bearish / reduce | 5.48 | 19.56 | 21.2% | 28.6% | Risk-control validation in XLC, XHB | XLI, XHB, XLE | XLF, XLY, XLB | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Metals / Miners | Bearish / reduce | 3.04 | 41.37 | 45.1% | 0.0% | No direct options read | GSG, COPX, HAP | URNM, XME, SILJ | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Defensive Sectors | Bearish / reduce | -0.38 | 18.33 | 32.8% | 25.0% | Risk-control validation in XLU, XLP | XLV, XLP, XLRE | XLU, XLRE, XLP | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Neutral / risk reserve | 20.29 | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | n/a | n/a | Cash is included in the 100% model normalization. It rises when broad beta weakens, damage broadens, financial conditions tighten, or VAMS/positioning overlays stop supporting selected risk exposure. |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Neutral / selective | 52.44 | 80.13 | 3.7% | 100.0% | Risk-control validation in GOOGL, AMZN, SMH | ARKK, QTUM, AIQ | XLK, GRID, SMH | Usable strength, but not enough confirmation for broad risk expansion. |
| Style / Market Structure | Neutral / watch for confirmation | 38.11 | 68.21 | 0.0% | 0.0% | No direct options read | MAGS, IWF, XMAG | VO, SPXT, IWD | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Neutral / watch for confirmation | 36.15 | 64.23 | 0.0% | n/a | No direct options read | SPHB, MTUM, QUAL | SPHD, SPLV, QUAL | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Core Index Beta | Neutral / watch for confirmation | 29.71 | 51.57 | 8.0% | 66.7% | Risk-control validation in VTI | XLG, OEF, RSP | SPY, IWM, QQQ | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
Group Summary
| Group | ETFs | Strategy Score | Health | Health_1W_Chg | Return_1W | Return_1M | Return_3M | Trend_Breadth | Damage_Breadth | Return_Z | MA_Dev_Z | ZScore_Overlay | Extended_ETFs | Washed_Out_ETFs | Above_50DMA | Above_200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 12 | 52.44 | 80.13 | 12.91 | 2.6% | 3.1% | 13.1% | 84.3% | 3.7% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 83.3% | 91.7% |
| Style / Market Structure | 6 | 38.11 | 68.21 | 8.44 | 1.1% | -0.0% | 4.3% | 60.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 5 | 36.15 | 64.23 | 4.78 | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 60.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Core Index Beta | 6 | 29.71 | 51.57 | 4.80 | 1.2% | -0.0% | 4.0% | 54.6% | 8.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| International Equity | 8 | 22.20 | 51.74 | 0.58 | -0.1% | -2.9% | 1.4% | 42.5% | 6.7% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 12 | 20.97 | 57.31 | -4.01 | -0.8% | -1.1% | 7.7% | 56.7% | 38.7% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 58.3% | 58.3% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 10 | 15.45 | 44.41 | -4.00 | -0.7% | -4.4% | -0.0% | 36.0% | 7.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Rates / Credit | 14 | 11.32 | 36.30 | -3.69 | -0.8% | -1.8% | -1.1% | 10.0% | 0.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 3 | 8.35 | 36.63 | 5.96 | 0.7% | -2.0% | -0.6% | 13.3% | 32.7% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 16 | 6.53 | 36.43 | -2.23 | -0.6% | -4.0% | -0.3% | 21.2% | 26.8% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 12.5% | 31.2% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 7 | 5.48 | 19.56 | -0.22 | 0.1% | -3.1% | -1.1% | 28.4% | 21.2% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| Metals / Miners | 10 | 3.04 | 41.37 | -11.86 | -2.0% | -5.9% | 11.9% | 38.0% | 45.1% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Defensive Sectors | 4 | -0.38 | 18.33 | -0.68 | -0.8% | -3.7% | -4.8% | 24.9% | 32.8% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 25.0% | 25.0% |
Core Index Beta
| Ticker | Name | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Damage Breadth | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | Breadth | 20.50 | -0.04 | 1.3% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 12.4% | 34.5% | 23.7% | True | True |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Breadth | 30.99 | 6.92 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 20.2% | 53.1% | 24.1% | True | True |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | Price proxy | 25.97 | -3.36 | -0.7% | -4.5% | -2.9% | -0.6% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 0.0% | False | False |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | Price proxy | 48.81 | 0.18 | -0.2% | -3.2% | -0.8% | 3.0% | 7.3% | 40.0% | 0.0% | False | True |
| OEF | S&P 100 | Price proxy | 90.91 | 12.21 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 13.3% | 100.0% | 0.0% | True | True |
| XLG | S&P Top 50 | Price proxy | 92.21 | 12.92 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 9.8% | 100.0% | 0.0% | True | True |
Sectors And Key Industry Proxies
| Ticker | Name | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | Breadth | 40.10 | 6.03 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 35.3% | 66.7% | 16.2% | 21.6% | True | True |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | Breadth | 16.14 | 6.04 | -0.2% | -3.6% | 1.3% | -6.8% | -9.0% | 20.6% | 1.4% | 27.7% | False | False |
| XLC | Communication Services | Breadth | 20.32 | -4.78 | 2.3% | 1.2% | 6.6% | -1.6% | -1.0% | 30.4% | 2.9% | 21.7% | True | True |
| XLE | Energy | Breadth | 21.73 | -11.98 | -3.0% | -2.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 32.7% | 36.5% | 0.0% | 14.3% | False | True |
| XLF | Financials | Breadth | 16.14 | -6.59 | -1.5% | -5.3% | -2.3% | 6.3% | 2.0% | 21.9% | 0.9% | 15.8% | False | True |
| XLI | Industrials | Breadth | 23.53 | 7.34 | 0.7% | -2.5% | -6.4% | -0.3% | 2.9% | 34.1% | 6.0% | 23.3% | False | False |
| XLB | Materials | Breadth | 16.61 | -2.13 | 0.1% | -4.6% | -2.4% | -0.1% | 3.6% | 26.7% | 1.3% | 22.7% | False | False |
| XHB | Homebuilders | Breadth | 22.43 | 10.57 | 2.6% | -4.2% | -8.8% | -1.0% | -13.3% | 28.6% | 2.9% | 22.9% | False | False |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | Breadth | 18.66 | -0.09 | -0.2% | -2.3% | -1.8% | -1.9% | 1.9% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 35.4% | False | False |
| XLV | Health Care | Breadth | 36.68 | 1.30 | 1.8% | -0.1% | 5.4% | 14.8% | 11.0% | 57.8% | 12.8% | 13.3% | True | True |
| XLU | Utilities | Breadth | 7.29 | -2.22 | -3.2% | -7.6% | -14.0% | -11.7% | -7.0% | 3.2% | 1.1% | 53.8% | False | False |
| XLRE | Real Estate | Breadth | 10.69 | -1.70 | -1.5% | -4.6% | -8.8% | -5.1% | 0.8% | 12.2% | 0.0% | 28.9% | False | False |
Non-Sector Industries And Themes
| Ticker | Name | Group | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 98.47 | 16.81 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 26.3% | 18.8% | 11.1% | 100.0% | 96.2% | 0.0% |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 96.81 | 19.65 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 30.7% | 100.0% | 92.0% | 0.0% |
| AIQ | Artificial Intelligence | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 95.99 | 16.46 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 13.8% | 5.0% | 26.0% | 100.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% |
| CLOU | Cloud Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 95.52 | 13.63 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 23.1% | 24.1% | 33.0% | 100.0% | 88.8% | 0.0% |
| BUG | Cybersecurity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 94.81 | 6.90 | 0.8% | 8.1% | 18.3% | 30.2% | 49.8% | 100.0% | 87.0% | 0.0% |
| IGV | Software | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 93.98 | 11.50 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 20.5% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 100.0% | 85.0% | 0.0% |
| CARZ | Global Autos | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 93.09 | 17.17 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.1% | -3.9% | 30.0% | 100.0% | 86.4% | 9.9% |
| NXTG | Next-Gen Connectivity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 91.98 | 11.86 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 41.7% | 100.0% | 79.9% | 0.0% |
| ROBO | Robotics & Automation | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 90.42 | 17.88 | 3.3% | 0.6% | 4.2% | -7.1% | 9.4% | 100.0% | 77.0% | 2.5% |
| CRAK | Oil Refiners | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 85.37 | -12.21 | -1.8% | 1.0% | 16.4% | 32.4% | 60.9% | 100.0% | 63.4% | 0.0% |
| IBB | Biotech Large Cap | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 82.98 | 15.04 | 2.5% | -1.0% | 11.5% | 24.3% | 23.5% | 80.0% | 79.9% | 0.0% |
| JETS | Airlines | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 62.66 | 15.75 | 2.7% | 0.6% | -3.7% | 6.8% | -0.1% | 60.0% | 59.6% | 21.2% |
| PNQI | Internet | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 62.62 | 10.09 | 1.4% | -1.6% | 10.6% | 6.5% | -2.0% | 40.0% | 74.0% | 0.0% |
| HERO | Video Games & Esports | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 56.62 | 0.53 | -0.1% | -0.6% | 10.2% | 6.1% | -12.0% | 40.0% | 67.6% | 22.7% |
| IHE | Pharmaceuticals | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 56.13 | 8.67 | 1.0% | -1.8% | 0.4% | 12.7% | 20.8% | 40.0% | 57.8% | 0.0% |
| PINK | Health Care Leaders | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 54.83 | 4.78 | 0.4% | -1.9% | 0.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 40.0% | 54.6% | 0.0% |
| SMH | Semiconductors | Growth / Tech Leadership | Breadth | 51.01 | 16.56 | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 51.5% | 85.3% | 21.3% | 20.0% |
| GRID | Smart Grid Infrastructure | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 49.84 | 7.61 | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | -6.2% | 13.5% | 20.0% | 64.6% | 0.0% |
| IHF | Health Care Providers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 49.17 | -1.95 | -0.5% | -2.5% | -0.9% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 40.0% | 40.4% | 0.0% |
| XBI | Biotech | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 47.75 | -6.19 | -1.1% | -5.4% | 3.0% | 17.9% | 25.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | 0.0% |
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 45.27 | -19.65 | -4.4% | -4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 41.1% | 40.0% | 30.7% | 0.0% |
| IYG | Financial Services | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 42.68 | -9.03 | -1.4% | -5.2% | -1.7% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 40.0% | 24.2% | 0.0% |
| KRE | Regional Banks | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 42.56 | -6.55 | -1.1% | -4.4% | -5.0% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 40.0% | 23.9% | 0.0% |
| IAI | Broker-Dealers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 38.31 | -13.63 | -2.1% | -7.7% | -3.0% | 1.1% | -4.0% | 40.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% |
| IAK | Insurance | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 37.72 | -18.23 | -3.2% | -4.8% | -6.5% | 3.6% | 8.4% | 40.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% |
| PEJ | Leisure & Entertainment | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 30.10 | 7.26 | 0.9% | -3.8% | -4.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 37.8% | 0.0% |
| PAVE | Infrastructure | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 29.37 | 8.32 | 1.0% | -3.1% | -7.3% | -2.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 38.3% | 6.4% |
| XTL | Telecom | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 29.26 | 4.42 | 0.2% | -1.2% | -0.8% | -11.6% | 28.5% | 0.0% | 50.7% | 40.2% |
| IHI | Medical Devices | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 27.64 | -1.24 | -0.3% | -3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | -16.2% | 0.0% | 46.0% | 38.5% |
| UFO | Space Economy | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 24.96 | 5.84 | 0.8% | -0.3% | 1.4% | -29.6% | -7.9% | 0.0% | 61.7% | 98.0% |
| SOCL | Social Media | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 24.23 | 9.73 | 1.3% | -2.7% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -21.9% | 0.0% | 50.4% | 73.0% |
| ITB | Home Construction | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 23.03 | 14.34 | 2.3% | -4.0% | -7.1% | -0.7% | -16.1% | 0.0% | 41.6% | 57.4% |
| OIH | Oil Services | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 22.72 | -7.96 | -1.3% | -7.9% | 0.5% | -11.3% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 26.5% | 19.3% |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 21.92 | -19.29 | -4.1% | -7.1% | 0.2% | -3.2% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 3.4% |
| COAL | Coal | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 21.48 | -14.34 | -2.2% | -12.1% | 3.2% | -0.7% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 24.5% |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 20.86 | 2.30 | -0.0% | -5.1% | -10.9% | -5.0% | -12.1% | 0.0% | 26.5% | 31.8% |
| PSP | Private Equity | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 19.15 | -6.90 | -1.1% | -7.3% | -1.0% | -2.6% | -15.8% | 0.0% | 23.3% | 34.5% |
| XES | Oil & Gas Equipment | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 17.86 | -15.40 | -2.6% | -7.8% | -0.2% | -12.7% | 23.4% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 30.5% |
| XTN | Transportation | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 14.90 | -11.15 | -1.6% | -6.1% | -12.8% | -6.6% | 1.1% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 35.3% |
| NUKZ | Nuclear Energy | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 14.18 | -8.32 | -1.3% | -6.5% | -4.3% | -13.2% | -13.2% | 0.0% | 17.7% | 52.7% |
Charts
Visual packet for weekly review: breadth health, weekly return leadership, weekly breadth change, signal heatmap, and breadth-versus-return cross-section.
Group Heatmap Table
Column-aware coloring: returns are centered around zero, breadth/health use higher-is-better, and damage uses lower-is-better.
| Group | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Leadership | Damage | >50DMA | >200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2.6% | 3.1% | 13.1% | 8.7% | 25.7% | 80.13 | 12.91 | 84.3% | 72.7% | 3.7% | 83.3% | 91.7% |
| Style / Market Structure | 1.1% | -0.0% | 4.3% | 3.6% | 9.7% | 68.21 | 8.44 | 60.0% | 65.5% | 0.0% | 33.3% | 100.0% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 1.0% | -0.4% | 0.5% | 2.7% | 12.3% | 64.23 | 4.78 | 60.0% | 55.6% | 0.0% | 60.0% | 60.0% |
| Core Index Beta | 1.2% | -0.0% | 4.0% | 2.7% | 11.7% | 51.57 | 4.80 | 54.6% | 39.7% | 8.0% | 66.7% | 83.3% |
| International Equity | -0.1% | -2.9% | 1.4% | 1.7% | 5.6% | 51.74 | 0.58 | 42.5% | 46.6% | 6.7% | 37.5% | 62.5% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | -0.8% | -1.1% | 7.7% | -1.3% | 5.1% | 57.31 | -4.01 | 56.7% | 56.5% | 38.7% | 58.3% | 58.3% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | -0.7% | -4.4% | -0.0% | 8.1% | 6.5% | 44.41 | -4.00 | 36.0% | 35.8% | 7.3% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Rates / Credit | -0.8% | -1.8% | -1.1% | -1.6% | -0.8% | 36.30 | -3.69 | 10.0% | 42.1% | 0.3% | 7.1% | 14.3% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 0.7% | -2.0% | -0.6% | -6.9% | -0.8% | 36.63 | 5.96 | 13.3% | 51.3% | 32.7% | 0.0% | 33.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | -0.6% | -4.0% | -0.3% | -1.3% | 9.5% | 36.43 | -2.23 | 21.2% | 39.7% | 26.8% | 12.5% | 31.2% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 0.1% | -3.1% | -1.1% | 0.3% | 2.5% | 19.56 | -0.22 | 28.4% | 2.2% | 21.2% | 14.3% | 42.9% |
| Metals / Miners | -2.0% | -5.9% | 11.9% | 2.2% | -0.7% | 41.37 | -11.86 | 38.0% | 40.1% | 45.1% | 10.0% | 80.0% |
| Defensive Sectors | -0.8% | -3.7% | -4.8% | -1.0% | 1.7% | 18.33 | -0.68 | 24.9% | 3.5% | 32.8% | 25.0% | 25.0% |
ETF Signal Heatmap Table
| ETF | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Leadership | Damage | Ext Z | 50DMA Z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | 2.9% | 5.3% | 26.3% | 18.8% | 11.1% | 98.47 | 16.81 | 100.0% | 96.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| BTC-USD | 3.4% | 5.3% | 30.9% | 11.2% | -12.2% | 97.30 | 18.58 | 100.0% | 98.2% | 13.3% | n/a | n/a |
| MAGS | 3.1% | 4.6% | 15.0% | 4.7% | 11.9% | 97.29 | 17.52 | 100.0% | 93.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| QTUM | 4.3% | 4.3% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 30.7% | 96.81 | 19.65 | 100.0% | 92.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| SPHB | 3.9% | 3.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 25.2% | 95.99 | 19.29 | 100.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| AIQ | 2.9% | 2.6% | 13.8% | 5.0% | 26.0% | 95.99 | 16.46 | 100.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| CLOU | 2.0% | 2.2% | 23.1% | 24.1% | 33.0% | 95.52 | 13.63 | 100.0% | 88.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| BUG | 0.8% | 8.1% | 18.3% | 30.2% | 49.8% | 94.81 | 6.90 | 100.0% | 87.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IGV | 1.6% | 1.4% | 20.5% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 93.98 | 11.50 | 100.0% | 85.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IWF | 2.4% | 2.4% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 7.6% | 93.27 | 14.69 | 100.0% | 83.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| MTUM | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 23.8% | 93.16 | 16.11 | 100.0% | 82.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| CARZ | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.1% | -3.9% | 30.0% | 93.09 | 17.17 | 100.0% | 86.4% | 9.9% | n/a | n/a |
| XLG | 1.9% | 2.1% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 9.8% | 92.21 | 12.92 | 100.0% | 80.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| NXTG | 1.6% | 1.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 41.7% | 91.98 | 11.86 | 100.0% | 79.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| OEF | 1.6% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 13.3% | 90.91 | 12.21 | 100.0% | 77.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| ROBO | 3.3% | 0.6% | 4.2% | -7.1% | 9.4% | 90.42 | 17.88 | 100.0% | 77.0% | 2.5% | n/a | n/a |
| CPER | 0.9% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 13.0% | 89.73 | 7.96 | 100.0% | 74.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| QUAL | 2.0% | 0.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 10.6% | 89.38 | 13.27 | 100.0% | 73.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| DXJ | 1.6% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 17.3% | 88.20 | 11.15 | 100.0% | 70.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| GSG | -1.2% | 3.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 50.7% | 87.14 | -7.61 | 100.0% | 67.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| DBC | -0.9% | 2.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 40.8% | 87.02 | -5.13 | 100.0% | 67.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| DBB | -0.0% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 0.1% | 9.1% | 86.43 | 1.59 | 100.0% | 66.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| UUP | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 85.49 | 6.55 | 100.0% | 63.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| CRAK | -1.8% | 1.0% | 16.4% | 32.4% | 60.9% | 85.37 | -12.21 | 100.0% | 63.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| BKLN | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 83.72 | 1.24 | 100.0% | 59.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| USO | -3.6% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 107.0% | 83.60 | -18.58 | 100.0% | 59.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IBB | 2.5% | -1.0% | 11.5% | 24.3% | 23.5% | 82.98 | 15.04 | 80.0% | 79.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| EEM | 1.4% | -1.0% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 18.1% | 79.55 | 10.80 | 80.0% | 71.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| DBA | 1.4% | -1.1% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 11.5% | 75.78 | 10.44 | 80.0% | 61.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| EWZ | -1.9% | -2.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 12.1% | 65.61 | -12.92 | 80.0% | 39.5% | 8.0% | n/a | n/a |
| JETS | 2.7% | 0.6% | -3.7% | 6.8% | -0.1% | 62.66 | 15.75 | 60.0% | 59.6% | 21.2% | n/a | n/a |
| PNQI | 1.4% | -1.6% | 10.6% | 6.5% | -2.0% | 62.62 | 10.09 | 40.0% | 74.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| XMAG | 1.2% | -0.8% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 11.8% | 58.49 | 9.03 | 40.0% | 63.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| CWB | 0.6% | -0.7% | 1.1% | -2.6% | 10.1% | 56.72 | 5.13 | 40.0% | 59.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| HERO | -0.1% | -0.6% | 10.2% | 6.1% | -12.0% | 56.62 | 0.53 | 40.0% | 67.6% | 22.7% | n/a | n/a |
| IHE | 1.0% | -1.8% | 0.4% | 12.7% | 20.8% | 56.13 | 8.67 | 40.0% | 57.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IWD | 0.1% | -1.9% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 16.3% | 55.65 | 3.72 | 40.0% | 56.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| PINK | 0.4% | -1.9% | 0.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 54.83 | 4.78 | 40.0% | 54.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| EZU | 0.8% | -2.5% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 54.71 | 6.19 | 40.0% | 54.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| SPXT | 0.0% | -1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 54.36 | 3.01 | 40.0% | 53.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| COPX | -0.6% | -4.3% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 54.20 | -2.65 | 40.0% | 53.4% | 1.1% | n/a | n/a |
| EWU | 0.1% | -2.6% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 52.47 | 4.07 | 40.0% | 48.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| SMH | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 51.5% | 51.01 | 16.56 | 85.3% | 21.3% | 20.0% | n/a | n/a |
| VO | -0.0% | -2.8% | -0.7% | 2.8% | 7.3% | 50.23 | 2.65 | 40.0% | 43.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| GRID | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | -6.2% | 13.5% | 49.84 | 7.61 | 20.0% | 64.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
Group Scatter Panels
Same framework as the all-ETF scatter, split by group so the outliers and clusters are readable. Marker size reflects trend breadth; color reflects damage breadth.
Signal Details
Tables generated directly from prices.csv and the breadth metric files in the Breadth folder.
ETF Z-Score Extension And Repair Map
These tables come from the ETF macro technical deck. Z-scores are measured relative to each ETF's own history, so they help separate healthy leadership from chase risk and identify potential repair candidates.
Most Extended Versus Own History
| ETF | Name | Group | Ext Z | 60D Ret Z | 50DMA Z | State |
|---|
Washed-Out / Below-Norm ETFs
| ETF | Name | Group | Ext Z | 60D Ret Z | 50DMA Z | State |
|---|
Relative Strength Z-Score Leaders
| ETF | Name | Group | RS Z | Ext Z | Health | Health Chg |
|---|
Potential Repair Candidates
Detailed Signal Matrix
| Ticker | Name | Group | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth | Extension Z | 60D Return Z | 50DMA Dev Z | Stretch State | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 98.47 | 16.81 | 2.9% | 5.3% | 26.3% | 18.8% | 11.1% | 100.0% | 96.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 97.30 | 18.58 | 3.4% | 5.3% | 30.9% | 11.2% | -12.2% | 100.0% | 98.2% | 13.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 97.29 | 17.52 | 3.1% | 4.6% | 15.0% | 4.7% | 11.9% | 100.0% | 93.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 96.81 | 19.65 | 4.3% | 4.3% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 30.7% | 100.0% | 92.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| SPHB | High Beta | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 95.99 | 19.29 | 3.9% | 3.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | 25.2% | 100.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| AIQ | Artificial Intelligence | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 95.99 | 16.46 | 2.9% | 2.6% | 13.8% | 5.0% | 26.0% | 100.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| CLOU | Cloud Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 95.52 | 13.63 | 2.0% | 2.2% | 23.1% | 24.1% | 33.0% | 100.0% | 88.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| BUG | Cybersecurity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 94.81 | 6.90 | 0.8% | 8.1% | 18.3% | 30.2% | 49.8% | 100.0% | 87.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IGV | Software | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 93.98 | 11.50 | 1.6% | 1.4% | 20.5% | 12.8% | 7.9% | 100.0% | 85.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IWF | Russell 1000 Growth | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 93.27 | 14.69 | 2.4% | 2.4% | 7.4% | 1.2% | 7.6% | 100.0% | 83.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| MTUM | Momentum Factor | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 93.16 | 16.11 | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 23.8% | 100.0% | 82.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| CARZ | Global Autos | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 93.09 | 17.17 | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.1% | -3.9% | 30.0% | 100.0% | 86.4% | 9.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| XLG | S&P Top 50 | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 92.21 | 12.92 | 1.9% | 2.1% | 7.4% | 1.5% | 9.8% | 100.0% | 80.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| NXTG | Next-Gen Connectivity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 91.98 | 11.86 | 1.6% | 1.6% | 8.4% | 5.2% | 41.7% | 100.0% | 79.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| OEF | S&P 100 | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 90.91 | 12.21 | 1.6% | 1.2% | 6.5% | 4.5% | 13.3% | 100.0% | 77.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| ROBO | Robotics & Automation | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 90.42 | 17.88 | 3.3% | 0.6% | 4.2% | -7.1% | 9.4% | 100.0% | 77.0% | 2.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| CPER | Copper | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 89.73 | 7.96 | 0.9% | 1.7% | 5.9% | 4.3% | 13.0% | 100.0% | 74.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| QUAL | Quality Factor | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 89.38 | 13.27 | 2.0% | 0.7% | 3.3% | 4.7% | 10.6% | 100.0% | 73.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| DXJ | Japan Hedged Equity | International Equity | Price proxy | 88.20 | 11.15 | 1.6% | 0.7% | 2.4% | 7.6% | 17.3% | 100.0% | 70.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| GSG | Broad Commodities | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 87.14 | -7.61 | -1.2% | 3.0% | 9.5% | 7.9% | 50.7% | 100.0% | 67.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| DBC | Broad Commodities | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 87.02 | -5.13 | -0.9% | 2.3% | 8.4% | 6.8% | 40.8% | 100.0% | 67.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| DBB | Base Metals | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 86.43 | 1.59 | -0.0% | 0.7% | 5.0% | 0.1% | 9.1% | 100.0% | 66.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| UUP | US Dollar | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 85.49 | 6.55 | 0.8% | 1.9% | 0.1% | 3.1% | 4.3% | 100.0% | 63.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| CRAK | Oil Refiners | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 85.37 | -12.21 | -1.8% | 1.0% | 16.4% | 32.4% | 60.9% | 100.0% | 63.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| BKLN | Senior Loans | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 83.72 | 1.24 | -0.1% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.5% | 2.2% | 100.0% | 59.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| USO | Oil | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 83.60 | -18.58 | -3.6% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 107.0% | 100.0% | 59.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IBB | Biotech Large Cap | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 82.98 | 15.04 | 2.5% | -1.0% | 11.5% | 24.3% | 23.5% | 80.0% | 79.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | International Equity | Price proxy | 79.55 | 10.80 | 1.4% | -1.0% | 7.3% | 3.7% | 18.1% | 80.0% | 71.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| DBA | Agriculture | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 75.78 | 10.44 | 1.4% | -1.1% | 1.1% | 3.6% | 11.5% | 80.0% | 61.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| EWZ | Brazil | International Equity | Price proxy | 65.61 | -12.92 | -1.9% | -2.7% | 3.1% | 2.2% | 12.1% | 80.0% | 39.5% | 8.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| JETS | Airlines | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 62.66 | 15.75 | 2.7% | 0.6% | -3.7% | 6.8% | -0.1% | 60.0% | 59.6% | 21.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| PNQI | Internet | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 62.62 | 10.09 | 1.4% | -1.6% | 10.6% | 6.5% | -2.0% | 40.0% | 74.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XMAG | Ex-Magnificent 7 | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 58.49 | 9.03 | 1.2% | -0.8% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 11.8% | 40.0% | 63.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| CWB | Convertible Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 56.72 | 5.13 | 0.6% | -0.7% | 1.1% | -2.6% | 10.1% | 40.0% | 59.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| HERO | Video Games & Esports | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 56.62 | 0.53 | -0.1% | -0.6% | 10.2% | 6.1% | -12.0% | 40.0% | 67.6% | 22.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| IHE | Pharmaceuticals | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 56.13 | 8.67 | 1.0% | -1.8% | 0.4% | 12.7% | 20.8% | 40.0% | 57.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| IWD | Russell 1000 Value | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 55.65 | 3.72 | 0.1% | -1.9% | 1.9% | 7.3% | 16.3% | 40.0% | 56.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| PINK | Health Care Leaders | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 54.83 | 4.78 | 0.4% | -1.9% | 0.9% | 5.9% | 4.1% | 40.0% | 54.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| EZU | Eurozone | International Equity | Price proxy | 54.71 | 6.19 | 0.8% | -2.5% | 1.1% | 2.8% | 5.9% | 40.0% | 54.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| SPXT | S&P 500 Ex-Technology | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 54.36 | 3.01 | 0.0% | -1.8% | 0.8% | 1.1% | 3.5% | 40.0% | 53.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| COPX | Copper Miners | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 54.20 | -2.65 | -0.6% | -4.3% | 11.6% | 4.4% | 7.7% | 40.0% | 53.4% | 1.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| EWU | United Kingdom | International Equity | Price proxy | 52.47 | 4.07 | 0.1% | -2.6% | 0.2% | 1.9% | 6.2% | 40.0% | 48.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| SMH | Semiconductors | Growth / Tech Leadership | Breadth | 51.01 | 16.56 | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 51.5% | 85.3% | 21.3% | 20.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| VO | Mid-Cap Blend | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 50.23 | 2.65 | -0.0% | -2.8% | -0.7% | 2.8% | 7.3% | 40.0% | 43.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| GRID | Smart Grid Infrastructure | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 49.84 | 7.61 | 0.9% | 0.5% | 1.4% | -6.2% | 13.5% | 20.0% | 64.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| IHF | Health Care Providers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 49.17 | -1.95 | -0.5% | -2.5% | -0.9% | 10.6% | 14.9% | 40.0% | 40.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 48.81 | 0.18 | -0.2% | -3.2% | -0.8% | 3.0% | 7.3% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| HAP | Natural Resources | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 48.81 | -11.50 | -1.7% | -4.0% | 4.9% | 3.3% | 15.1% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XBI | Biotech | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 47.75 | -6.19 | -1.1% | -5.4% | 3.0% | 17.9% | 25.0% | 40.0% | 36.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 45.27 | -19.65 | -4.4% | -4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | 41.1% | 40.0% | 30.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| IYG | Financial Services | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 42.68 | -9.03 | -1.4% | -5.2% | -1.7% | 6.3% | 1.0% | 40.0% | 24.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| KRE | Regional Banks | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 42.56 | -6.55 | -1.1% | -4.4% | -5.0% | 4.3% | 7.3% | 40.0% | 23.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| WOOD | Timber & Forestry | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 41.15 | -12.57 | -1.8% | -3.4% | -0.0% | 6.5% | -8.8% | 40.0% | 31.3% | 29.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| GDX | Gold Miners | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 40.81 | -16.11 | -2.7% | -6.4% | 23.4% | 9.2% | -4.5% | 40.0% | 40.1% | 54.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLK | Technology | Growth / Tech Leadership | Breadth | 40.10 | 6.03 | 3.6% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 35.3% | 66.7% | 16.2% | 21.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| GDXJ | Junior Gold Miners | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 39.31 | -15.75 | -2.7% | -6.1% | 23.8% | 8.5% | -5.4% | 40.0% | 41.0% | 67.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| IAI | Broker-Dealers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 38.31 | -13.63 | -2.1% | -7.7% | -3.0% | 1.1% | -4.0% | 40.0% | 13.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| IAK | Insurance | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 37.72 | -18.23 | -3.2% | -4.8% | -6.5% | 3.6% | 8.4% | 40.0% | 11.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| SIL | Silver Miners | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 37.14 | -18.94 | -3.8% | -7.8% | 21.4% | 4.1% | -6.8% | 40.0% | 35.1% | 66.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLV | Health Care | Defensive Sectors | Breadth | 36.68 | 1.30 | 1.8% | -0.1% | 5.4% | 14.8% | 11.0% | 57.8% | 12.8% | 13.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| SHY | 1-3 Year Treasury | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 36.47 | 1.95 | -0.0% | -0.6% | -0.2% | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.0% | 53.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| STIP | Short-Term TIPS | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 35.06 | 0.88 | -0.1% | -1.0% | -0.7% | -0.6% | 1.0% | 0.0% | 50.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| SILJ | Junior Silver Miners | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 34.19 | -17.88 | -3.2% | -7.8% | 18.0% | 1.4% | -12.8% | 40.0% | 35.4% | 86.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| PFF | Preferred Stock | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 33.64 | -2.30 | -0.6% | -1.8% | -0.2% | -2.8% | -2.9% | 0.0% | 46.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| HYG | High Yield Credit | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 32.58 | -3.72 | -0.9% | -1.6% | -0.7% | -0.6% | -0.1% | 0.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| EMLC | EM Local Currency Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 31.17 | -4.78 | -0.9% | -2.6% | 0.0% | 0.6% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 40.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| AGG | Aggregate Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 31.05 | -4.07 | -0.9% | -1.9% | -1.7% | -2.0% | -2.4% | 0.0% | 40.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Core Index Beta | Breadth | 30.99 | 6.92 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 20.2% | 53.1% | 8.3% | 24.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| TIP | TIPS | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 30.46 | -3.01 | -0.7% | -2.3% | -2.0% | -2.5% | -1.7% | 0.0% | 38.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| PEJ | Leisure & Entertainment | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 30.10 | 7.26 | 0.9% | -3.8% | -4.1% | 3.0% | 1.4% | 0.0% | 37.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| PAVE | Infrastructure | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 29.37 | 8.32 | 1.0% | -3.1% | -7.3% | -2.5% | 3.9% | 0.0% | 38.3% | 6.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XTL | Telecom | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 29.26 | 4.42 | 0.2% | -1.2% | -0.8% | -11.6% | 28.5% | 0.0% | 50.7% | 40.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| IEF | 7-10 Year Treasury | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 29.04 | -4.42 | -0.9% | -2.4% | -2.6% | -2.8% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 35.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| EMB | EM USD Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 28.69 | -8.67 | -1.3% | -2.4% | -1.7% | -1.5% | -0.8% | 0.0% | 34.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| MBB | Mortgage-Backed Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 28.57 | -5.49 | -1.0% | -2.6% | -2.3% | -2.6% | -2.8% | 0.0% | 33.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| LQD | Investment Grade Credit | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 28.57 | -9.38 | -1.4% | -2.2% | -2.0% | -3.2% | -3.7% | 0.0% | 33.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| INDA | India | International Equity | Price proxy | 28.54 | -1.59 | -0.3% | -4.1% | -0.3% | -1.1% | -9.4% | 0.0% | 37.2% | 8.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| IHI | Medical Devices | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 27.64 | -1.24 | -0.3% | -3.6% | 2.9% | 2.4% | -16.2% | 0.0% | 46.0% | 38.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 25.97 | -3.36 | -0.7% | -4.5% | -2.9% | -0.6% | 6.8% | 0.0% | 27.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| EWA | Australia | International Equity | Price proxy | 25.15 | -7.26 | -1.1% | -6.0% | -1.0% | 0.2% | 7.8% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| UFO | Space Economy | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 24.96 | 5.84 | 0.8% | -0.3% | 1.4% | -29.6% | -7.9% | 0.0% | 61.7% | 98.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XME | Metals & Mining | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 24.30 | -0.88 | -0.3% | -8.6% | 6.5% | -7.3% | -12.6% | 0.0% | 41.3% | 48.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| SOCL | Social Media | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 24.23 | 9.73 | 1.3% | -2.7% | -0.4% | -0.7% | -21.9% | 0.0% | 50.4% | 73.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XLI | Industrials | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 23.53 | 7.34 | 0.7% | -2.5% | -6.4% | -0.3% | 2.9% | 34.1% | 6.0% | 23.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| ITB | Home Construction | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 23.03 | 14.34 | 2.3% | -4.0% | -7.1% | -0.7% | -16.1% | 0.0% | 41.6% | 57.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| OIH | Oil Services | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 22.72 | -7.96 | -1.3% | -7.9% | 0.5% | -11.3% | 20.5% | 0.0% | 26.5% | 19.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 22.50 | -15.04 | -2.4% | -3.5% | -4.0% | -4.9% | -6.9% | 0.0% | 20.4% | 4.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| GLD | Gold | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 22.48 | -13.27 | -1.9% | -3.3% | 5.8% | -4.9% | -6.6% | 0.0% | 41.0% | 59.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| SPLV | Low Volatility | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 22.43 | -10.80 | -1.6% | -4.4% | -7.3% | -3.0% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XHB | Homebuilders | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 22.43 | 10.57 | 2.6% | -4.2% | -8.8% | -1.0% | -13.3% | 28.6% | 2.9% | 22.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 21.92 | -19.29 | -4.1% | -7.1% | 0.2% | -3.2% | 24.9% | 0.0% | 18.6% | 3.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| PLTM | Platinum | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 21.89 | -10.44 | -1.6% | -2.4% | 11.4% | -7.7% | -22.9% | 0.0% | 54.0% | 98.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XLE | Energy | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 21.73 | -11.98 | -3.0% | -2.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | 32.7% | 36.5% | 0.0% | 14.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| COAL | Coal | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 21.48 | -14.34 | -2.2% | -12.1% | 3.2% | -0.7% | -6.2% | 0.0% | 25.4% | 24.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 20.86 | 2.30 | -0.0% | -5.1% | -10.9% | -5.0% | -12.1% | 0.0% | 26.5% | 31.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| SPY | S&P 500 | Core Index Beta | Breadth | 20.50 | -0.04 | 1.3% | 0.4% | 4.6% | 4.0% | 12.4% | 34.5% | 5.4% | 23.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| XLC | Communication Services | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 20.32 | -4.78 | 2.3% | 1.2% | 6.6% | -1.6% | -1.0% | 30.4% | 2.9% | 21.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| SPHD | High Dividend Low Vol | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 20.19 | -13.98 | -2.2% | -6.0% | -6.5% | -1.4% | 3.0% | 0.0% | 13.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| FXI | China Large Cap | International Equity | Price proxy | 19.70 | -5.84 | -1.0% | -5.4% | -1.8% | -3.7% | -12.9% | 0.0% | 25.7% | 37.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| PSP | Private Equity | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 19.15 | -6.90 | -1.1% | -7.3% | -1.0% | -2.6% | -15.8% | 0.0% | 23.3% | 34.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
Highest Breadth Health
| Ticker | Name | Health Score | Health 1W Change | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | 98.47 | 16.81 | 100.0% | 96.2% | 0.0% |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | 97.30 | 18.58 | 100.0% | 98.2% | 13.3% |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | 97.29 | 17.52 | 100.0% | 93.2% | 0.0% |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | 96.81 | 19.65 | 100.0% | 92.0% | 0.0% |
| SPHB | High Beta | 95.99 | 19.29 | 100.0% | 90.0% | 0.0% |
Lowest Breadth Health
| Ticker | Name | Health Score | Health 1W Change | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URNM | Uranium Miners | 6.67 | -14.69 | 0.0% | 15.9% | 98.0% |
| XLU | Utilities | 7.29 | -2.22 | 3.2% | 1.1% | 53.8% |
| PALL | Palladium | 9.03 | -17.17 | 0.0% | 21.8% | 98.0% |
| XLRE | Real Estate | 10.69 | -1.70 | 12.2% | 0.0% | 28.9% |
| URA | Uranium | 10.92 | -11.86 | 0.0% | 26.5% | 98.0% |
Weekly Breadth Improvers
| Ticker | Name | Health 1W Change | Health Score | Trend Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | 19.65 | 96.81 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| SPHB | High Beta | 19.29 | 95.99 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | 18.58 | 97.30 | 100.0% | 13.3% |
| ROBO | Robotics & Automation | 17.88 | 90.42 | 100.0% | 2.5% |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | 17.52 | 97.29 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| CARZ | Global Autos | 17.17 | 93.09 | 100.0% | 9.9% |
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | 16.81 | 98.47 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 16.56 | 51.01 | 85.3% | 20.0% |
| AIQ | Artificial Intelligence | 16.46 | 95.99 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| MTUM | Momentum Factor | 16.11 | 93.16 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
Weekly Breadth Deteriorators
| Ticker | Name | Health 1W Change | Health Score | Trend Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | -19.65 | 45.27 | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | -19.29 | 21.92 | 0.0% | 3.4% |
| SIL | Silver Miners | -18.94 | 37.14 | 40.0% | 66.0% |
| USO | Oil | -18.58 | 83.60 | 100.0% | 0.0% |
| IAK | Insurance | -18.23 | 37.72 | 40.0% | 0.0% |
| SILJ | Junior Silver Miners | -17.88 | 34.19 | 40.0% | 86.5% |
| PALL | Palladium | -17.17 | 9.03 | 0.0% | 98.0% |
| SLV | Silver | -16.81 | 18.00 | 0.0% | 98.0% |
| GDX | Gold Miners | -16.11 | 40.81 | 40.0% | 54.9% |
| GDXJ | Junior Gold Miners | -15.75 | 39.31 | 40.0% | 67.3% |
This Week's ETF Price Leaders
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SMH | Semiconductors | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | True | True |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | 4.3% | 4.3% | 10.5% | 0.7% | True | True |
| SPHB | High Beta | 3.9% | 3.3% | 8.6% | 8.1% | True | True |
| XLK | Technology | 3.6% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | True | True |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | 3.4% | 5.3% | 30.9% | 11.2% | True | True |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 4.0% | True | True |
| ROBO | Robotics & Automation | 3.3% | 0.6% | 4.2% | -7.1% | True | True |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | 3.1% | 4.6% | 15.0% | 4.7% | True | True |
| CARZ | Global Autos | 3.0% | 3.0% | 8.1% | -3.9% | True | True |
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | 2.9% | 5.3% | 26.3% | 18.8% | True | True |
This Week's ETF Price Laggards
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | -4.4% | -4.4% | 4.7% | 6.5% | False | True |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | -4.1% | -7.1% | 0.2% | -3.2% | False | False |
| SIL | Silver Miners | -3.8% | -7.8% | 21.4% | 4.1% | False | True |
| USO | Oil | -3.6% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | True | True |
| IAK | Insurance | -3.2% | -4.8% | -6.5% | 3.6% | False | True |
| SILJ | Junior Silver Miners | -3.2% | -7.8% | 18.0% | 1.4% | False | True |
| XLU | Utilities | -3.2% | -7.6% | -14.0% | -11.7% | False | False |
| PALL | Palladium | -3.0% | -9.2% | 1.9% | -6.3% | False | False |
| SLV | Silver | -3.0% | -2.8% | 10.6% | -15.0% | False | False |
| XLE | Energy | -3.0% | -2.6% | 4.7% | 5.7% | False | True |
1M ETF Price Leaders
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUG | Cybersecurity | 0.8% | 8.1% | 18.3% | 30.2% | 49.8% | True | True |
| SMH | Semiconductors | 5.9% | 7.0% | 8.1% | 5.2% | 51.5% | True | True |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | 3.4% | 5.3% | 30.9% | 11.2% | -12.2% | True | True |
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | 2.9% | 5.3% | 26.3% | 18.8% | 11.1% | True | True |
| XLK | Technology | 3.6% | 4.9% | 11.7% | 9.1% | 35.3% | True | True |
| MTUM | Momentum Factor | 2.9% | 4.7% | 4.2% | 5.2% | 23.8% | True | True |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | 3.1% | 4.6% | 15.0% | 4.7% | 11.9% | True | True |
| USO | Oil | -3.6% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 5.3% | 107.0% | True | True |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | 4.3% | 4.3% | 10.5% | 0.7% | 30.7% | True | True |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | 3.3% | 3.7% | 8.9% | 4.0% | 20.2% | True | True |
1M ETF Price Laggards
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| URNM | Uranium Miners | -2.4% | -13.9% | -0.6% | -15.6% | -29.4% | False | False |
| COAL | Coal | -2.2% | -12.1% | 3.2% | -0.7% | -6.2% | False | False |
| URA | Uranium | -1.8% | -11.2% | 2.6% | -16.4% | -24.8% | False | False |
| PALL | Palladium | -3.0% | -9.2% | 1.9% | -6.3% | -29.6% | False | False |
| XME | Metals & Mining | -0.3% | -8.6% | 6.5% | -7.3% | -12.6% | False | False |
| OIH | Oil Services | -1.3% | -7.9% | 0.5% | -11.3% | 20.5% | False | False |
| XES | Oil & Gas Equipment | -2.6% | -7.8% | -0.2% | -12.7% | 23.4% | False | False |
| SIL | Silver Miners | -3.8% | -7.8% | 21.4% | 4.1% | -6.8% | False | True |
| SILJ | Junior Silver Miners | -3.2% | -7.8% | 18.0% | 1.4% | -12.8% | False | True |
| IAI | Broker-Dealers | -2.1% | -7.7% | -3.0% | 1.1% | -4.0% | False | True |