Weekly Decision Brief
Use the deck as a risk-budget and portfolio-tilt document. The current equity-beta stance is Underweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime. Signal agreement is 4 of 9; risk appetite is 38.6 / 100; financial conditions are 28.5 / 100; S&P 500 drawdown risk is 65.8 / 100; and Options Intelligence is 51.8 / 100. The main leadership stack is Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity, while the primary risk-watch stack is Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership.
This Week's Decision
Read this first. It compresses the entire command center into the current stance, what changed, where to add, where to avoid, and what would invalidate the view.
| Question | Current Read | Evidence | Action |
|---|---|---|---|
| Portfolio stance | Underweight | Model allocation view and PM headline both read Underweight; risk appetite is 38.6 / 100, below expansion territory; financial conditions are 28.5 / 100, still tight; S&P 500 drawdown risk is 65.8 / 100, elevated enough to constrain sizing. Regime Cut Risk And Wait For Repair; agreement 4/9; master risk budget 36.4 / 100; risk appetite 38.6 / 100. | Keep exposure tied to confirmed sleeves, not broad price momentum alone. |
| Where to add | Style / Market Structure, Defensive Sectors, Rates / Credit, Commodities / Crypto / USD, Cash / Dry Powder | Top groups: Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity. Top weight adds versus base: Cash / Dry Powder (4.3%), Defensive Sectors (4.1%), Style / Market Structure (3.6%). | Use pullbacks or confirmed repair; avoid adding where z-scores, options, or VAMS conflict. |
| Where to reduce or avoid | Core Index Beta, Growth / Tech Leadership, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, Thematic / Speculative Growth, International Equity | Weak groups: Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership. Top cuts versus base: Growth / Tech Leadership (-5.5%), Industries / Infrastructure / Housing (-3.0%), International Equity (-3.0%). | Treat as risk-control, tactical-only, or repair-only exposure until confirmation improves. |
| What changed | Upgrade: Metals / Miners (+26.0); downgrade: Style / Market Structure (-15.0) | VAMS buys: XLU, XLI, XLB, GDX, XLV, SIL, XHB, GLD. VAMS sells: KWEB, SHY, XLP, KRE. Positioning buying: SOFR-3M, 10-Year Treasury Notes, S&P 500, 2-Year Treasury Notes; selling: Japanese Yen, Euro FX, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Nasdaq 100. | Use changes to decide whether the weekly move is broadening, narrowing, or simply rotating. |
| What invalidates | Breadth deterioration plus risk-budget deterioration | Watch damage 20.8%, drawdown risk 65.8 / 100, options path risk 48.3 / 100, FCI 28.5 / 100. | Cut beta if damage rises, FCI rolls over, options risk-control validation broadens, and VAMS sells expand together. |
Bottom Line
Underweight: use confirmed leadership rather than broad, indiscriminate beta. The strongest current groups are Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity; the weakest are Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership.
What To Do
Keep the allocation anchored to the model weights, favor Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, and only add where breadth, VAMS, z-scores, and Options Intelligence are not fighting each other.
What To Watch
Watch drawdown risk (65.8 / 100), options path risk (48.3 / 100), fresh VAMS sells (KWEB, SHY, XLP, KRE), and weekly damage breadth.
How to use this page: this is the weekly one-page read. Use PM Decision Memo for the formal workflow, Signal Agreement to see whether each sleeve has enough confirmation, Weekly Attribution to see why model weights moved, and source pages only when proof is needed behind a specific call.
Current Portfolio Read
| Decision Area | Current Read | Plain-English Meaning |
|---|---|---|
| Overall risk posture | Underweight | Stay invested, selective, or defensive based on the full signal stack rather than price alone. |
| Risk-budget backdrop | 36.4 / 100, Defensive | Combines market risk appetite, financial conditions, S&P drawdown risk, and Options Intelligence into the top-level risk budget. |
| Options tape | 51.8 / 100, Balanced options pressure | Shows whether options pressure is validation-supported or should be treated as path-risk/protection-demand discipline. |
| Signal confirmation | 4 of 9 checks, Weak confirmation | More confirmed checks means the burden of proof supports taking risk; fewer checks means selectivity or defense. |
| Leadership to favor | Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity | Areas where breadth, trend, momentum, and allocation score are most supportive. |
| Risk areas to watch | Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership | Areas where weak breadth, damage, stretched positioning, or VAMS weakness can create portfolio drag. |
Portfolio Action Map
| Portfolio Sleeve | Current Action | Use In Portfolio |
|---|---|---|
| Core equity beta | Underweight | Set broad equity exposure from the risk budget; do not let one strong index move override weak confirmation. Model allocation view and PM headline both read Underweight; risk appetite is 38.6 / 100, below expansion territory; financial conditions are 28.5 / 100, still tight; S&P 500 drawdown risk is 65.8 / 100, elevated enough to constrain sizing. |
| Leadership tilts | Favor Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity | Add through groups where breadth, VAMS, and z-scores support the move; avoid forced exposure in unconfirmed groups. |
| Risk control | Watch Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership | Reduce or avoid weak sleeves when damage breadth rises, VAMS sells broaden, or drawdown risk rises. |
| Options discipline | Balanced options pressure; overlay +0.4 | Use validation-aware options pressure, path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, and leadership call chase to decide whether leadership can be added now or should wait for better entries. |
| Rates / credit | Neutral / avoid weak credit beta | Use rates and credit as the governor on how much risk is being paid for. |
| Dry powder | Hold for repair opportunities | Use cash when agreement is mixed, entries are extended, or drawdown risk is elevated. |
Four Scores That Matter First
Where To Go Next
Client Question Map
| If Client Asks | Answer From Deck |
|---|---|
| Are we risk-on or risk-off? | Risk posture is Underweight; agreement is 4 of 9; master risk budget is 36.4 / 100. Model allocation view and PM headline both read Underweight; risk appetite is 38.6 / 100, below expansion territory; financial conditions are 28.5 / 100, still tight; S&P 500 drawdown risk is 65.8 / 100, elevated enough to constrain sizing. |
| Where should we add? | Favor confirmed leadership first: Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity. Check Model Allocation for exact sleeve weights. |
| What could go wrong? | Main watch areas are Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership; drawdown risk is 65.8 / 100; options path risk is 48.3 / 100; VAMS sells are KWEB, SHY, XLP, KRE. |
| What changes the view? | Upgrade risk if breadth, FCI, validation-supported Options setup, VAMS, and drawdown safety improve together. Downgrade risk if damage, options risk-control validation, VAMS sells, FCI tightening, and positioning unwinds align. |
PM Decision Memo
The Command Center is the weekly PM decision layer above the source decks. Current stance is Underweight for equity beta under Cut Risk And Wait For Repair. Internal damage or weak trend participation argues for beta restraint. The priority is drawdown control until breadth repair is visible. The average z-score overlay is 0.00, so extension/repair is being included in the strategy score rather than treated as a separate afterthought. Risk appetite, financial conditions, drawdown risk, and Options Intelligence set the risk budget; breadth, ETF leadership, and z-scores define the opportunity set; CFTC positioning and VAMS confirm or challenge the exposures.
PM workflow: 1) set the risk budget from Risk Appetite, Financial Conditions, S&P 500 Drawdown Safety, and Options Intelligence, 2) pick exposures from breadth, ETF leadership, and z-score repair/extension, 3) confirm with rates/credit, CFTC, Options, and VAMS, then 4) translate the evidence into the allocation model. Strongest group stack is Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity; weakest group stack is Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership. Price/breadth as of 2026-07-25; breadth metrics as of 2026-07-24; CFTC positioning as of 2026-07-21; VAMS as of 2026-07-25; Options as of 2026-07-24.
What Changed This Week
Compressed change log for the memo. Use Weekly Attribution for sleeve-level model drivers and Raw Weekly Changes for the historical group snapshot.
| Area | This Week | PM Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Risk appetite | 38.6 / 100, Fading; 1W -3.4, 4W -8.4 | Higher and improving supports being invested; fading argues for tighter sizing and stronger confirmation. |
| Financial conditions | 28.5 / 100, Tight; decile 2/10; 1W -7.3, 4W -11.7 | Higher and improving means macro conditions are easing; lower or fading conditions argue for a tighter risk budget. |
| S&P 500 drawdown risk | 65.8 / 100, High; decile 9/10; 1W +8.5, 4W +16.1 | Higher and rising readings mean downside risk is building; size exposure from forward drawdown risk, not just current leadership. |
| Options risk-transfer | 51.8 / 100, Balanced options pressure; path risk 48.3, protection demand 52.4, urgent hedge demand 61.5, leadership call chase 75.9, IV pressure 51.7; overlay +0.4 | Use options as validation or risk discipline: favorable pressure validation can support exposure, while risk-control validation, protection demand, IV pressure, or call chase lowers entry aggressiveness. |
| Biggest group upgrade | Metals / Miners (+26.0) | Use upgrades to find areas where breadth, trend, momentum, and z-score repair are moving in the same direction. |
| Biggest group downgrade | Style / Market Structure (-15.0) | Downgrades are risk-control candidates, especially if VAMS sells or damage breadth are also rising. |
Signal Agreement Score
Decision Rule
Use the agreement score as the compression layer across the nine live checks: risk appetite, breadth, ETF leadership/z-scores, rates/credit, financial conditions, drawdown risk, Options Intelligence, positioning, and VAMS. It is not a replacement for the evidence.
Full signal agreement moved: the complete source-level agreement table and sleeve-by-sleeve confirmation matrix now live on the Signal Agreement page. The memo keeps only the compression score so this page remains readable in the weekly meeting.
PM Decision Hierarchy
This is the order of operations. It keeps the deck from treating every signal as equal at every moment.
| Step | Question | Current Read |
|---|---|---|
| 1. Risk Appetite | Is the broad ETF tape rewarding risk-taking? | 38.6 / 100, Fading |
| 2. Financial Conditions | Are USD, rates, oil, VIX, and MOVE easing or tightening the risk budget? | 28.5 / 100, Tight; overlay -3.0 |
| 3. Drawdown Risk | How much S&P 500 downside risk are we underwriting? | 65.8 / 100, High; decile 9/10 |
| 4. Breadth | Is participation broad enough to trust the move? | Health 50.74, 50DMA 60.4%, damage 20.8% |
| 5. ETF Leadership / Z-Scores | Where is capital rotating, and are we chasing or buying repair? | Leaders Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity; extended n/a; repair none flagged |
| 6. Rates / Credit | Is risk being compensated? | Rates/Credit score 17.31 |
| 7. Positioning | Is sponsorship supportive or crowded, and is rates/funding positioning pressuring the backdrop? | CFTC equity overlay +4.0; crowded longs 10-Year Treasury Notes, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Copper, 2-Year Treasury Notes; rates/funding SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 3.2%; 13W price -0.4%; 13W Inst/HF -2.5M. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay |
| 8. Options Intelligence | Is options pressure validated as add/watch, or is it a risk-control warning? | 51.8 / 100, Balanced options pressure; overlay +0.4 |
| 9. VAMS | Does volatility-adjusted momentum confirm the exposure? | Overlay +1.2; buy rate 44% |
| 10. Allocation | Translate the confirmed evidence into sleeve weights. | Primary stance Underweight; model view Underweight |
Conflicts To Resolve
| Conflict | Current Read | PM Resolution |
|---|---|---|
| Broad tape vs macro conditions | Risk appetite 38.6 / 100 while FCI is 28.5 / 100. | If risk appetite is stronger than FCI, stay invested but prefer confirmed leaders and avoid low-quality chase. |
| Risk appetite vs drawdown risk | Risk appetite 38.6 / 100 while drawdown risk is 65.8 / 100. | When both are elevated, stay invested selectively but reduce entry aggressiveness, hedge more deliberately, and favor groups with confirmed breadth/VAMS. |
| Options pressure vs price leadership | Options pressure 51.8 / 100 with path risk 48.3, protection demand 52.4, IV pressure 51.7, and leadership call chase 75.9. | If options validation says risk control or leadership call chase is high, do not treat price momentum as permission to chase. Require breadth, VAMS, and z-score entry discipline. |
| Leadership vs entry risk | Extended ETFs: n/a; repair watch: none flagged. | Add to leaders on pullbacks, not after extension; prioritize repair only when breadth/VAMS confirm. |
| Momentum vs participation | VAMS overlay +1.2; avg damage breadth 20.8%. | Fresh VAMS buys matter most when damage is contained; rising damage means size down the signal. |
| Credit calm vs compensation | Rates/Credit score 17.31; spreads remain tight. | Do not confuse calm with cheap; require stronger breadth before adding lower-quality beta. |
What Would Change The View?
| Path | Trigger | PM Action |
|---|---|---|
| Upgrade Risk | Agreement score rises to 7-9 checks, FCI >55 or improving, drawdown risk falls below 45, 50/200DMA breadth expands, options setup is add/watch validated, and VAMS fresh buys broaden beyond narrow leaders. | Raise beta and add to confirmed group leaders. |
| Hold / Selective | Agreement holds at 5-6 checks, FCI neutral, leadership remains concentrated, options tape is balanced, drawdown risk stays elevated but stable, and z-score extension stays elevated. | Keep current stance; rotate inside leaders and avoid broad chase. |
| Downgrade Risk | Agreement falls below 5 checks, FCI breaks below 45 or rolls over, drawdown risk rises above 60, options risk-control validation or protection demand rises, damage breadth rises, and VAMS sells broaden. | Cut beta, raise quality/cash, and wait for repair. |
Risk-budget drill-down: the aggregate gauges and their combined S&P 500 validation now live on the Macro Risk Dashboard page directly below this memo. The PM Memo stays focused on decision, stance, and action.
Weekly PM Decision Table
| PM Decision | Current Stance | Evidence | Action / Risk Control |
|---|---|---|---|
| Equity beta | Underweight | Model allocation view and PM headline both read Underweight; risk appetite is 38.6 / 100, below expansion territory; financial conditions are 28.5 / 100, still tight; S&P 500 drawdown risk is 65.8 / 100, elevated enough to constrain sizing. Regime is Cut Risk And Wait For Repair; avg health 50.74, damage 20.8%, VAMS overlay +1.2, positioning overlay +4.0, FCI overlay -3.0, Options overlay +0.4. Price/breadth as of 2026-07-25; breadth metrics as of 2026-07-24; CFTC positioning as of 2026-07-21; VAMS as of 2026-07-25; Options as of 2026-07-24. | Size broad beta from the adjusted signal, not price alone. Add only where breadth, VAMS, financial conditions, and validation-aware options setup confirm. |
| Sector and ETF leadership | Favor confirmed leaders | Top groups: Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity. 1W ETF leaders: USO, GDXJ, GDX, SIL, COPX. Extended z-score watch: n/a. Repair watch: none flagged. | Overweight leaders with healthy breadth and VAMS confirmation; avoid chasing ETFs whose own-history z-scores are already extended. |
| Duration / credit | Neutral / avoid weak credit beta | Rates/Credit strategy score 17.31; spreads remain a risk governor. SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 3.2%; 13W price -0.4%; 13W Inst/HF -2.5M. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay | Prefer quality duration/credit when risk premium is tight; use SOFR/Treasury CFTC positioning as rates/funding context before adding cyclical beta or duration. |
| Commodities / real assets | Neutral / tactical only | Commodity group score 25.74; metals/miners score 14.40. | Use as inflation/real-asset sleeve only when price, breadth, and macro pressure align. |
| Positioning risk | Crowding overlay | Crowded longs: 10-Year Treasury Notes, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Copper, 2-Year Treasury Notes. Crowded shorts/washouts: Nasdaq 100, SOFR-3M, Russell 2000, Japanese Yen. Most visible weekly buying: SOFR-3M, 10-Year Treasury Notes, S&P 500, 2-Year Treasury Notes; selling: Japanese Yen, Euro FX, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Nasdaq 100. Rates/funding context: SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 3.2%; 13W price -0.4%; 13W Inst/HF -2.5M. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay | Reduce chase risk where price leadership is crowded and breadth is fading; look for washed-out assets with improving internals. |
| VAMS momentum regime | Momentum confirmation overlay | Fresh buys: XLU, XLI, XLB, GDX, XLV, SIL, XHB, GLD. Fresh sells: KWEB, SHY, XLP, KRE. Buy rate is 44% across 41 ETFs. | Fresh buys are momentum repair candidates; fresh sells are exposures where risk should be withheld or sized down. |
| Options risk-transfer | Balanced options pressure / overlay +0.4 | Options pressure composite is 51.8 / 100 (Balanced options pressure); calm tape 58.0; near-term path risk 48.3; protection demand 52.4; urgent hedge demand 61.5; leadership call chase 75.9; gamma stability 70.1; IV pressure 51.7; macro-options transmission 36.4; pressure confirmation 53.5; allocation overlay +0.4. | Use Options Intelligence as the validation-aware pressure layer: high pressure only adds confidence when the Options deck validates add/watch; near-term path risk, protection demand, urgent hedge demand, IV pressure, or leadership call chase tighten entry discipline. |
| Macro conditions | Tight / overlay -3.0 | FCI 28.5 / 100; decile 2/10; 1W -7.3, 4W -11.7. | Use FCI as the macro risk-budget governor: easing supports confirmed risk, tightening raises the bar for new exposure. |
| S&P 500 drawdown risk | High / decile 9/10 | Drawdown risk 65.8 / 100; 1W +8.5, 4W +16.1. | Use this as the downside-underwriting layer: higher readings lower gross exposure tolerance, tighten stop/hedge discipline, and make forward drawdown history more relevant than headline return history. |
| Invalidation trigger | Monitor weekly | Risk watch tickers: UFO, IGV, PALL, URNM; breadth deteriorators: BUG, MAGS, IGV, CLOU, SOCL. | If health rolls over, damage rises, VAMS sells expand, and positioning unwinds crowded longs, move beta lower. |
Group diagnostics moved: the detailed group and sleeve evidence now sits on Signal Agreement and Top-Down Map. That keeps the memo focused on stance, action, and what would change the view.
1. Breadth And Participation
Determines whether the move is broad enough to support beta or narrow enough to require selectivity.
2. ETF Leadership
Identifies where capital is actually rotating and whether leadership is broadening or narrowing.
3. Rates / Credit Risk Budget
The yield curve deck acts as the governor on how aggressively to use equity and credit beta.
4. Positioning, Options, And VAMS
CFTC checks sponsorship/crowding. Options checks validation-aware pressure, near-term path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, and leadership call chase. VAMS checks whether volatility-adjusted momentum is confirming or withholding risk.
Evidence drill-down: use Top-Down Map for group heatmaps and ETF buckets, Charts for visual confirmation, Signal Details for ticker-level leaders/laggards, Cross-Analysis for source-deck agreement, and Methodology for scoring definitions. The PM Memo stays intentionally compressed so it can be read first without re-reading the whole packet.
Signal Agreement
This page answers whether each portfolio sleeve has enough independent confirmation to support the current allocation. It separates the source-level stack from the sleeve-level action so the reader can see where the model has high, medium, or low conviction.
Source-Level Agreement
This is the same evidence stack compressed in the PM Memo, shown here with the full explanation. Constructive means the signal supports the current risk budget; Watch means it needs confirmation or is a constraint.
| Signal | Read | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Risk appetite | Watch | Risk appetite 38.6 / 100, Fading; 4W -8.4. | Checks whether the broad ETF tape is rewarding risk-taking. |
| Breadth | Constructive | Avg health 50.74, above 50DMA 60.4%, damage 20.8%. | Confirms whether market internals support exposure. |
| ETF leadership / z-scores | Watch | Top groups: Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity. Extended watch: n/a. | Confirms where risk is rotating and whether entries are stretched. |
| Rates / credit | Watch | Rates/Credit strategy score 17.31. | Sets the risk budget for equity and credit beta. |
| Financial conditions | Watch | FCI 28.5 / 100, Tight; decile 2/10; overlay -3.0. | Checks whether rates, dollar, oil, VIX, and MOVE are helping or constraining the risk budget. |
| Drawdown risk | Watch | Drawdown risk 65.8 / 100, High; 4W +16.1. | Checks whether downside-underwriting risk is low, falling, or manageable. |
| Options Intelligence | Constructive | Options pressure 51.8 / 100, Balanced options pressure; path risk 48.3, protection demand 52.4, IV pressure 51.7, overlay +0.4. | Checks whether validation-aware options pressure supports risk-taking or raises the bar through path risk, protection demand, urgent hedging, IV pressure, or leadership call chase. |
| Positioning | Constructive | CFTC equity overlay +4.0; crowded longs: 10-Year Treasury Notes, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Copper, 2-Year Treasury Notes. Rates/funding: SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 3.2%; 13W price -0.4%; 13W Inst/HF -2.5M. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay. | Flags equity crowding/sponsorship while keeping SOFR/Treasury futures as rates/funding context. |
| VAMS | Constructive | VAMS overlay +1.2; buy rate 44%. | Checks whether volatility-adjusted momentum confirms risk. |
Sleeve-Level Confirmation Matrix
Each sleeve is checked against breadth, VAMS, Options Intelligence, macro risk budget, and CFTC positioning. This is the clearest place to see whether an overweight is well confirmed, merely tactical, or being held despite mixed evidence.
| Sleeve | Model View | Weight Delta | Confirmation | Conviction | Breadth | VAMS | Options | Macro | Positioning | Key Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta | Underweight | -1.7% | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 23.0, health 48.8, damage 6.1%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup 52.2, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Treat as risk-control or repair-only sleeve |
| Style / Market Structure | Overweight | 3.6% | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 27.5, health 57.9, damage 1.2%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup n/a, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Overweight is tactical; size with discipline and require weekly confirmation |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Neutral | -0.3% | 4/5 | High | Confirm | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 39.2, health 71.0, damage 2.0%, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup n/a, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Hold selectively; wait for more confirmation |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Underweight | -5.5% | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 3.6, health 33.6, damage 26.3%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup 67.8, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Treat as risk-control or repair-only sleeve |
| Cyclical Sectors | Neutral | -0.3% | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 23.2, health 39.6, damage 15.3%, VAMS buy rate 71.4%, options setup 49.3, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Hold selectively; wait for more confirmation |
| Defensive Sectors | Overweight | 4.1% | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 31.7, health 45.7, damage 9.1%, VAMS buy rate 75.0%, options setup 53.6, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Overweight is tactical; size with discipline and require weekly confirmation |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Underweight | -3.0% | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 26.3, health 53.5, damage 23.4%, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup n/a, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Treat as risk-control or repair-only sleeve |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Underweight | -1.0% | 2/5 | Low | Watch | Confirm | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Score 9.2, health 43.4, damage 32.3%, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup 74.6, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Treat as risk-control or repair-only sleeve |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Neutral | -0.4% | 2/5 | Low | Confirm | Watch | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Score 41.1, health 75.5, damage 9.2%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup 44.3, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Wait for confirmation; keep at or below base until breadth, VAMS, macro, or Options improves |
| International Equity | Underweight | -3.0% | 4/5 | High | Confirm | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 35.2, health 64.6, damage 9.1%, VAMS buy rate 33.3%, options setup n/a, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Treat as risk-control or repair-only sleeve |
| Rates / Credit | Overweight | 3.2% | 1/5 | Low | Watch | Watch | Watch | Watch | Confirm | Score 17.3, health 43.1, damage 0.0%, VAMS buy rate 0.0%, options setup 34.7, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Overweight is tactical; size with discipline and require weekly confirmation |
| Metals / Miners | Underweight | -1.0% | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 14.4, health 39.2, damage 63.3%, VAMS buy rate 100.0%, options setup n/a, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Treat as risk-control or repair-only sleeve |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Overweight | 1.0% | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 25.7, health 51.7, damage 47.0%, VAMS buy rate 75.0%, options setup 52.8, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Overweight is tactical; size with discipline and require weekly confirmation |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Overweight | 4.3% | 3/5 | Medium | Watch | Confirm | Confirm | Watch | Confirm | Score 27.0, health n/a, damage n/a, VAMS buy rate n/a, options setup n/a, Risk 38.6 / FCI 28.5 / DD Risk 65.8. | Risk reserve; compare against agreement score and drawdown risk rather than source-deck breadth. |
Group-Level Diagnostics
This reconciles group breadth, price leadership, damage breadth, VAMS, Options Intelligence, and model allocation into one action table. It is intentionally here instead of the PM Memo to keep the memo readable.
| Group | PM Action | Allocation Sleeve | Allocation View | Model Weight | Strategy Score | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Damage | VAMS Buy Rate | Options Pressure | Options Path Risk | Options Read | Leaders | Laggards | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Hold / selective add | Financial / Health Care Industries | Neutral | 1.6% | 41.13 | 75.50 | 1.35 | 80.0% | 9.2% | 0.0% | 44.32 | 47.23 | Mixed options tape in KRE | IHE, IAK, IYG | IHI, PSP, XBI | Usable strength, but not enough confirmation for broad risk expansion. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Overweight / risk reserve | Cash / Dry Powder | Overweight | 11.9% | 27.02 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | n/a | n/a | Cash is included in the 100% model normalization. It rises when broad beta weakens, damage broadens, financial conditions tighten, or VAMS/positioning overlays stop supporting selected risk exposure. |
| Metals / Miners | Underweight / avoid chase | Metals / Miners | Underweight | 0.0% | 14.40 | 39.23 | 16.11 | 28.0% | 63.3% | 100.0% | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | GSG, HAP, WOOD | URNM, SILJ, SIL | Damage breadth is elevated; require repair before adding. |
| Cyclical Sectors | Underweight / reduce | Cyclical Sectors | Neutral | 13.7% | 23.16 | 39.60 | -3.18 | 60.4% | 15.3% | 71.4% | 49.32 | 48.97 | Mixed options tape in XLB, XLE, XLC | XLE, XLF, XLI | XLC, XLY, XHB | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Core Index Beta | Underweight / reduce | Core Index Beta | Underweight | 8.3% | 22.98 | 48.81 | -5.98 | 50.5% | 6.1% | 0.0% | 52.23 | 48.32 | Mixed options tape in QQQ, DIA, IWM | RSP, IWM, OEF | QQQ, SPY, XLG | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Rates / Credit | Underweight / reduce | Rates / Credit | Overweight | 10.2% | 17.31 | 43.14 | -6.84 | 21.4% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.66 | 32.66 | Risk-control validation in TLT | BKLN, SHY, STIP | TLT, LQD, PFF | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Underweight / reduce | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Underweight | 0.0% | 9.17 | 43.42 | -3.36 | 40.0% | 32.3% | n/a | 74.61 | 76.72 | Validated options pressure in TSLA | PINK, PEJ, UFO | UFO, PEJ, PINK | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Underweight / reduce | Growth / Tech Leadership | Underweight | 1.5% | 3.56 | 33.60 | -9.17 | 32.6% | 26.3% | 0.0% | 67.84 | 63.18 | Risk-control validation in GOOGL | BUG, CLOU, NXTG | IGV, ARKK, SMH | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Factors / Risk Appetite | Neutral | 2.7% | 39.17 | 71.03 | 3.58 | 72.0% | 2.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | SPHD, SPLV, QUAL | SPHB, MTUM, QUAL | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| International Equity | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | International Equity | Underweight | 0.0% | 35.18 | 64.55 | 0.31 | 62.5% | 9.1% | 33.3% | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | DXJ, EWU, EWA | INDA, EEM, EZU | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Defensive Sectors | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Defensive Sectors | Overweight | 18.1% | 31.68 | 45.71 | -5.52 | 70.1% | 9.1% | 75.0% | 53.62 | 52.13 | Risk-control validation in XLV, XLP, XLU | XLU, XLRE, XLV | XLP, XLV, XLRE | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Style / Market Structure | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Style / Market Structure | Overweight | 17.6% | 27.52 | 57.94 | -5.19 | 53.3% | 1.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | VO, IWD, XMAG | MAGS, IWF, SPXT | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Underweight | 4.4% | 26.28 | 53.51 | 2.21 | 46.2% | 23.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | CRAK, PAVE, XOP | HERO, SOCL, NUKZ | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Overweight | 10.0% | 25.74 | 51.72 | 4.29 | 51.7% | 47.0% | 75.0% | 52.83 | 51.42 | Risk-control validation in UUP, GLD, SLV | DBC, USO, DBA | PALL, PLTM, URA | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
Weekly Attribution
This page explains why the allocation model is positioned the way it is. It combines week-over-week group changes with the model overlays, score tilt, regime tilt, and final weight delta so the weekly move is not a black box.
Model Driver Attribution
Weight Delta is final model weight minus base weight. Score WoW, Health WoW, Trend WoW, and Damage WoW come from the saved command-center history snapshot. Positioning, VAMS, FCI, and Options are the live overlays used in the current run.
| Sleeve | Model View | Weight Delta | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Score WoW | Health WoW | Trend WoW | Damage WoW | Positioning | VAMS | FCI | Options | Overlay | Adjusted Signal | Score Tilt | Regime Tilt | Main Driver |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Underweight | -5.5% | 2026-07-17 | 3.56 | -10.74 | -15.04 | -17.2% | 4.4% | 1.20 | 1.23 | -1.50 | 0.45 | 1.38 | 4.94 | -4.00 | -2.00 | strategy score -10.7 WoW; health -15.0; damage +4.4; overlay +1.4; regime -2.0 |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Overweight | 4.3% | n/a | 27.02 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | -4.00 | -1.23 | 3.00 | -0.45 | -2.68 | 24.34 | -2.57 | 3.00 | overlay -2.7; regime +3.0 |
| Defensive Sectors | Overweight | 4.1% | 2026-07-17 | 31.68 | 0.26 | -5.52 | 0.7% | 0.4% | 0.00 | -0.37 | 0.90 | -0.13 | 0.40 | 32.07 | -1.79 | 0.00 | health -5.5 |
| Style / Market Structure | Overweight | 3.6% | 2026-07-17 | 27.52 | -14.98 | -17.12 | -30.0% | 1.2% | 2.00 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.22 | 1.34 | 28.86 | -2.11 | 0.00 | strategy score -15.0 WoW; health -17.1; damage +1.2; overlay +1.3 |
| Rates / Credit | Overweight | 3.2% | 2026-07-17 | 17.31 | -8.66 | -11.18 | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.18 | 1.68 | 18.99 | -3.10 | 3.00 | strategy score -8.7 WoW; health -11.2; overlay +1.7; regime +3.0 |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Underweight | -3.0% | 2026-07-17 | 26.28 | 4.64 | 1.62 | 0.0% | -1.5% | 0.00 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.18 | -0.71 | 25.57 | -2.44 | -2.00 | strategy score +4.6 WoW; health +1.6; damage -1.5; regime -2.0 |
| International Equity | Underweight | -3.0% | 2026-07-17 | 35.18 | 3.32 | 0.96 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 0.80 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 35.28 | -1.47 | -2.00 | strategy score +3.3 WoW; regime -2.0 |
| Core Index Beta | Underweight | -1.7% | 2026-07-17 | 22.98 | -7.48 | -10.75 | -18.3% | -1.5% | 4.00 | 1.23 | -3.00 | 0.45 | 2.68 | 25.66 | -2.43 | -2.00 | strategy score -7.5 WoW; health -10.7; damage -1.5; overlay +2.7; regime -2.0 |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Underweight | -1.0% | 2026-07-17 | 9.17 | -2.99 | -6.21 | -13.3% | 0.1% | 0.00 | 0.86 | -1.50 | 0.40 | -0.24 | 8.93 | -4.00 | -2.00 | strategy score -3.0 WoW; health -6.2; regime -2.0 |
| Metals / Miners | Underweight | -1.0% | 2026-07-17 | 14.40 | 26.01 | 14.76 | 10.0% | -2.5% | 0.00 | 0.37 | -0.60 | 0.13 | -0.10 | 14.30 | -3.57 | 0.00 | strategy score +26.0 WoW; health +14.8; damage -2.5 |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Overweight | 1.0% | 2026-07-17 | 25.74 | 8.05 | 4.67 | 3.3% | -3.8% | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.90 | 0.13 | 1.40 | 27.15 | -2.29 | 0.00 | strategy score +8.0 WoW; health +4.7; damage -3.8; overlay +1.4 |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Neutral | -0.4% | 2026-07-17 | 41.13 | -5.97 | -6.70 | -8.0% | 0.5% | 0.00 | 0.37 | -0.90 | 0.22 | -0.31 | 40.82 | -0.92 | 0.00 | strategy score -6.0 WoW; health -6.7 |
| Cyclical Sectors | Neutral | -0.3% | 2026-07-17 | 23.16 | -2.16 | -3.18 | 0.2% | -0.0% | 1.20 | 0.62 | -3.00 | 0.31 | -0.87 | 22.29 | -2.77 | -2.00 | strategy score -2.2 WoW; health -3.2; regime -2.0 |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Neutral | -0.3% | 2026-07-17 | 39.17 | 5.28 | -0.03 | -4.0% | -1.3% | 0.00 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.22 | -0.66 | 38.51 | -1.15 | 0.00 | strategy score +5.3 WoW; damage -1.3 |
Compressed Change Log
Same weekly read as the PM Memo, shown here next to model attribution for a one-page explanation of what changed and why it matters.
| Area | This Week | PM Implication |
|---|---|---|
| Risk appetite | 38.6 / 100, Fading; 1W -3.4, 4W -8.4 | Higher and improving supports being invested; fading argues for tighter sizing and stronger confirmation. |
| Financial conditions | 28.5 / 100, Tight; decile 2/10; 1W -7.3, 4W -11.7 | Higher and improving means macro conditions are easing; lower or fading conditions argue for a tighter risk budget. |
| S&P 500 drawdown risk | 65.8 / 100, High; decile 9/10; 1W +8.5, 4W +16.1 | Higher and rising readings mean downside risk is building; size exposure from forward drawdown risk, not just current leadership. |
| Options risk-transfer | 51.8 / 100, Balanced options pressure; path risk 48.3, protection demand 52.4, urgent hedge demand 61.5, leadership call chase 75.9, IV pressure 51.7; overlay +0.4 | Use options as validation or risk discipline: favorable pressure validation can support exposure, while risk-control validation, protection demand, IV pressure, or call chase lowers entry aggressiveness. |
| Biggest group upgrade | Metals / Miners (+26.0) | Use upgrades to find areas where breadth, trend, momentum, and z-score repair are moving in the same direction. |
| Biggest group downgrade | Style / Market Structure (-15.0) | Downgrades are risk-control candidates, especially if VAMS sells or damage breadth are also rising. |
| VAMS fresh buy cluster | XLU, XLI, XLB, GDX, XLV, SIL, XHB, GLD | Fresh buys highlight momentum repair or continuation candidates to compare against breadth and z-score extension. |
| VAMS fresh sell cluster | KWEB, SHY, XLP, KRE | Fresh sells identify exposures where volatility-adjusted momentum is withholding risk. |
| Positioning flow | Buying: SOFR-3M, 10-Year Treasury Notes, S&P 500, 2-Year Treasury Notes. Selling: Japanese Yen, Euro FX, 5-Year Treasury Notes, Nasdaq 100. Rates/funding: SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 3.2%; 13W price -0.4%; 13W Inst/HF -2.5M. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay. | Use weekly CFTC flow to separate broad sponsorship from crowded or unwinding risk; use SOFR/Treasury positioning as rates/funding context, not direct equity overlay. |
Biggest Group Upgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals / Miners | 2026-07-17 | 14.40 | 26.01 | 39.23 | 14.76 | 28.0% | 10.0% | 63.3% | -2.5% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 2026-07-17 | 25.74 | 8.05 | 51.72 | 4.67 | 51.7% | 3.3% | 47.0% | -3.8% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 2026-07-17 | 39.17 | 5.28 | 71.03 | -0.03 | 72.0% | -4.0% | 2.0% | -1.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 2026-07-17 | 26.28 | 4.64 | 53.51 | 1.62 | 46.2% | 0.0% | 23.4% | -1.5% |
| International Equity | 2026-07-17 | 35.18 | 3.32 | 64.55 | 0.96 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 0.1% |
| Defensive Sectors | 2026-07-17 | 31.68 | 0.26 | 45.71 | -5.52 | 70.1% | 0.7% | 9.1% | 0.4% |
Biggest Group Downgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style / Market Structure | 2026-07-17 | 27.52 | -14.98 | 57.94 | -17.12 | 53.3% | -30.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2026-07-17 | 3.56 | -10.74 | 33.60 | -15.04 | 32.6% | -17.2% | 26.3% | 4.4% |
| Rates / Credit | 2026-07-17 | 17.31 | -8.66 | 43.14 | -11.18 | 21.4% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Core Index Beta | 2026-07-17 | 22.98 | -7.48 | 48.81 | -10.75 | 50.5% | -18.3% | 6.1% | -1.5% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 2026-07-17 | 41.13 | -5.97 | 75.50 | -6.70 | 80.0% | -8.0% | 9.2% | 0.5% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 2026-07-17 | 9.17 | -2.99 | 43.42 | -6.21 | 40.0% | -13.3% | 32.3% | 0.1% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 2026-07-17 | 23.16 | -2.16 | 39.60 | -3.18 | 60.4% | 0.2% | 15.3% | -0.0% |
Macro Risk Dashboard
The master risk-budget page. It combines Risk Appetite, Financial Conditions, S&P 500 Drawdown Safety, and Options Intelligence into one current setup, then keeps the individual gauges and validation tables underneath so every input remains independently defensible.
Master Risk-Budget Read
The aggregate gauge is the master risk-budget read: 30% Risk Appetite, 30% Financial Conditions, 25% Drawdown Safety, and 15% Options Intelligence. Drawdown Safety is the inverse of drawdown risk. Higher scores mean the tape, macro backdrop, downside-underwriting setup, and validation-aware options evidence are more aligned for invested exposure. The validation preserves the full original Risk Appetite / Financial Conditions / Drawdown Safety history; Options Intelligence is blended into the master score only from the date its own history begins.
| Master Score | State | Risk Appetite | FCI | Drawdown Safety | Options Intelligence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 36.40 | Defensive | 38.56 | 28.47 | 34.20 | 51.62 | This is the aggregate risk-budget read; use individual gauges below to explain the drivers. |
Validated Risk-Budget Evidence
This is the statistical proof layer for the aggregate gauge. It tests whether the master score separates lower-risk S&P 500 environments from higher-risk ones using future 6M max drawdown and future 6M >10% drawdown hit rates. AUC means area under the curve: 0.50 has no ranking power, 0.70+ is useful, and 1.00 would perfectly rank future drawdown events.
| Validation Target | Obs | AUC | High-Score Avg 6M Max DD | Low-Score Avg 6M Max DD | High-Score >10% DD Hit | Low-Score >10% DD Hit | Baseline >10% DD Hit | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Future 6M SPY >10% drawdown | 1541 | 0.79 | -2.9% | -8.1% | 0.8% | 39.6% | 19.9% | High aggregate scores have historically carried materially lower future drawdown risk than low scores. |
| Score Range | Risk Budget Tier | Current Tier | Obs | Avg 6M SPY Return | Avg 6M Max DD | >10% DD Hit | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 70-100 | Expand Risk | 115 | 7.0% | -2.4% | 0.0% | Stay invested; add only to confirmed groups and avoid stretched entries. | |
| 55-70 | Constructive | 566 | 5.8% | -3.9% | 4.9% | Maintain risk with group-level confirmation from breadth, z-scores, VAMS, and positioning. | |
| 45-55 | Selective | 281 | 4.5% | -6.3% | 18.9% | Let the best groups work, but do not lift broad beta without confirmation. | |
| 30-45 | Defensive | ✓ | 308 | 5.8% | -7.1% | 38.3% | Reduce weak sleeves, raise quality/cash, and require repair before adding. |
| 0-30 | Stress | 271 | 1.5% | -8.4% | 39.5% | Capital preservation first; wait for risk appetite or financial conditions repair. |
Individual Gauge Evidence
The aggregate gauge is only useful if the underlying gauges are individually explainable. The sections below keep each gauge's line history, current statistics, component table, and backtest evidence visible underneath the master read.
Options Intelligence Read
A 0-100 validation-aware Options Pressure Composite from the Options Intelligence deck. Higher readings mean option-market pressure is present; PM Action, Validation Read, and Forward Return Evidence decide whether that pressure is add/watch or risk control. This is not a standalone bullish/bearish signal; it confirms or challenges breadth, VAMS, positioning, and macro conditions.
Current Options Tape
How To Use It
Options is the validation-aware pressure layer. High pressure can be opportunity or warning depending on the symbol's own backtest.
Options Pressure SPY Forward-Return Study
This validation table buckets the daily Options Pressure Composite into equal-count quintiles, then asks what SPY did over the next 1M, 3M, and 6M. The current quintile is highlighted; use it as risk-budget evidence, not a standalone trading signal.
| Score Range | Options Pressure Tier | Current Tier | Obs | Avg 1M SPY Return | Avg 3M SPY Return | Avg 6M SPY Return | Avg 6M Max DD | >10% DD Hit | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 56.1-83.8 | High Options Pressure | 81 | 4.2% | 8.9% | 14.0% | -4.4% | 21.0% | Historically strongest SPY forward-return bucket in this sample; use as risk permission only when breadth/VAMS confirm. | |
| 50.6-55.9 | Constructive | ✓ | 81 | 1.7% | 5.2% | 9.0% | -5.8% | 25.9% | Constructive options backdrop; stay invested but still require group confirmation. |
| 45.8-50.6 | Balanced | 81 | 1.3% | 3.5% | 6.4% | -6.5% | 32.1% | Middle bucket; treat Options as context rather than a standalone risk-on/risk-off call. | |
| 41.2-45.7 | Defensive | 81 | 0.4% | 2.4% | 6.3% | -8.0% | 34.6% | Defensive options backdrop; tighten sizing and avoid forcing broad beta. | |
| 22.1-41.2 | Low Options Pressure | 82 | -0.5% | -0.5% | 5.8% | -9.3% | 39.0% | Weakest options backdrop; prioritize drawdown control unless broader gauges repair. |
Aggregate Risk Appetite Read
A 0-100 aggregate gauge built from the ETF universe. Higher scores show broader trend participation, stronger short/intermediate momentum, and less drawdown pressure. Lower scores show weaker participation and higher stress.
Current Aggregate Score
How To Use It
This is the first-pass risk-temperature read before the detailed PM table. It does not replace group diagnostics; it tells you whether the broad tape is rewarding risk-taking, demanding selectivity, or warning that repair is needed.
Risk Appetite SPY Forward-Return Study
This table backs the Apex Risk Appetite Gauge with the same style of evidence as the other validated gauges. It buckets the daily risk-appetite score into equal-count quintiles, then measures what SPY did over the next 1M, 3M, and 6M plus the future 6M max drawdown. The current quintile is highlighted.
| Score Range | Risk Appetite Tier | Current Tier | Obs | Avg 1M SPY Return | Avg 3M SPY Return | Avg 6M SPY Return | Avg 6M Max DD | >10% DD Hit | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 77.9-93.8 | Strong Risk Appetite | 308 | 0.7% | 2.5% | 6.4% | -3.4% | 1.0% | Historically strongest broad-tape bucket; use as risk permission when drawdown risk and options do not object. | |
| 67.1-77.9 | Constructive | 308 | 0.2% | 1.5% | 4.7% | -5.3% | 14.0% | Constructive tape; stay invested and add through confirmed groups rather than lifting every sleeve. | |
| 51.3-67.1 | Balanced | 308 | 0.5% | 1.5% | 4.5% | -5.6% | 16.9% | Middle bucket; let breadth, VAMS, Options, and FCI decide the sleeve-level action. | |
| 29.9-51.3 | Defensive | ✓ | 308 | 0.8% | 2.2% | 3.7% | -7.0% | 36.0% | Defensive tape; require cleaner confirmation before adding beta. |
| 1.7-29.8 | Stress / Repair Needed | 309 | 1.0% | 3.7% | 5.1% | -7.0% | 31.4% | Weak tape; prioritize capital preservation and repair evidence. |
Financial Conditions Ease Index
A 0-100 macro conditions gauge using USD, 5Y and 10Y yields, oil, VIX, and MOVE. Higher scores mean easier conditions. Forward returns are the historical average PM-group returns that followed each financial-conditions decile.
Current Conditions
How To Use It
This is the macro risk-budget layer. It is most useful when compared with the existing risk appetite gauge: risk appetite tells us what markets are doing; financial conditions tell us whether liquidity, volatility, rates, dollar, and oil pressure are helping or constraining that move.
Current Input Read
| Input | Level Ease | 3M Easing Impulse | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| USD | 2.45 | 19.91 | Tighter |
| Oil | 4.56 | 61.57 | Tighter |
| 10Y Yield | 1.26 | 37.50 | Tighter |
| 5Y Yield | 3.17 | 31.15 | Tighter |
| VIX | 36.31 | 38.43 | Tighter |
| MOVE | 77.78 | 66.34 | Easier |
Average Group Returns By FCI Decile
| Decile | FCI Range | Obs | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 6.3-27.6 | 470 | 0.0% | 0.5% | 0.9% | 1.3% |
| 2 | 27.6-34.5 | 470 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.2% | 2.2% |
| 3 | 34.5-39.8 | 469 | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.6% | 1.6% |
| 4 | 39.9-44.6 | 470 | 0.0% | 0.2% | 1.8% | 2.8% |
| 5 | 44.6-48.2 | 469 | 0.3% | 0.8% | 1.7% | 4.0% |
| 6 | 48.3-51.4 | 470 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 2.9% | 4.9% |
| 7 | 51.4-54.9 | 469 | 0.0% | 0.4% | 3.0% | 3.9% |
| 8 | 54.9-59.3 | 470 | 0.1% | 0.9% | 3.2% | 5.4% |
| 9 | 59.3-64.7 | 469 | 0.3% | 1.4% | 3.5% | 6.2% |
| 10 | 64.7-84.3 | 470 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 3.4% | 9.1% |
Current-Decile Forward Return Profile
Historical average forward returns by PM group when the Financial Conditions Ease Index sat in the current decile. This is context, not a trade signal by itself.
| Group | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Defensive Sectors | 0.2% | 0.8% | 1.4% | 4.4% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.7% | 3.2% |
| Core Index Beta | 0.2% | 0.6% | 0.7% | 2.5% |
| Style / Market Structure | 0.2% | 0.5% | 0.6% | 2.7% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 0.1% | 0.4% | 0.6% | 2.4% |
| International Equity | 0.0% | 0.2% | 0.5% | 2.6% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.3% | 2.1% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 0.1% | 0.2% | 0.0% | 1.9% |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 0.3% | 0.5% | -0.2% | 1.6% |
| Metals / Miners | 0.1% | 0.2% | -0.2% | 2.7% |
| Rates / Credit | 0.1% | 0.0% | -0.3% | 0.4% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 0.2% | 0.2% | -0.5% | 1.2% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 0.1% | -0.2% | -0.9% | 0.9% |
S&P 500 Drawdown Risk Gauge
A 0-100 downside-risk read built to answer one question: how much future S&P 500 drawdown risk is the portfolio underwriting if it stays invested? Higher readings mean higher drawdown risk. Forward returns are intentionally excluded here because V-shaped bottoms can make return tests noisy; the validation target is future max drawdown and drawdown hit rates.
Current Drawdown Risk
How To Use It
This is the downside-underwriting layer. Risk appetite says whether the tape is rewarding risk; financial conditions say whether the macro backdrop is helping; drawdown risk says how much S&P 500 downside risk historically followed a similar setup.
Component Breakdown
| Component | Weight | Score | Read |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breadth Damage | 30.0% | 64.02 | High risk |
| Market Drawdown / Momentum Pressure | 20.0% | 76.57 | High risk |
| Financial Stress | 20.0% | 68.30 | VIX 18.6 (64 pctile), MOVE 70.9 |
| Leadership Fragility | 15.0% | 74.93 | High risk |
| Credit / Rates Stress | 15.0% | 42.55 | HY/IG OAS plus MOVE/rates pressure; HY OAS 2.77, IG OAS 0.79 |
Current-Decile SPY Drawdown Test
A compact read of what historically happened after the current drawdown-risk decile. Avg/Worst Max DD are future SPY max drawdowns inside each horizon; hit rates show how often SPY later crossed the stated drawdown threshold.
| Horizon | Decile | Risk Range | Obs | Avg Max DD | Worst Max DD | >10% DD Hit | >15% DD Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 9 | 65.0-76.5 | 203 | -4.0% | -12.7% | 13.5% | 0.0% |
| 3M | 9 | 65.0-76.5 | 203 | -6.0% | -14.9% | 31.5% | 0.0% |
| 6M | 9 | 65.0-76.5 | 203 | -8.1% | -18.7% | 40.7% | 13.9% |
| 12M | 9 | 65.0-76.5 | 203 | -11.1% | -21.7% | 55.3% | 26.3% |
Drawdown Risk Predictive Validation
This is the model validation layer. It compares future drawdowns after low-risk readings against future drawdowns after high-risk readings. A useful signal should show deeper average/worst future drawdowns and higher 5%, 10%, and 15% drawdown hit rates in high-risk buckets.
The right side of the table is the forward drawdown test. Low-Risk / High-Risk Avg Max DD show average future max drawdown after low- versus high-risk readings. Extra Avg DD Risk is normalized so positive means high-risk readings led to deeper average drawdowns. Worst Max DD shows the worst forward drawdown in each bucket. The >5%, >10%, and >15% DD Hit columns show how often SPY later crossed those drawdown thresholds within the horizon. Extra 10% Hit Risk is also normalized so positive means high-risk readings had more frequent 10% drawdowns.
| Horizon | Low-Risk Obs | High-Risk Obs | Low-Risk Avg Max DD | High-Risk Avg Max DD | Extra Avg DD Risk | Low-Risk Worst Max DD | High-Risk Worst Max DD | Low-Risk >5% DD Hit | High-Risk >5% DD Hit | Low-Risk >10% DD Hit | High-Risk >10% DD Hit | Extra 10% Hit Risk | Low-Risk >15% DD Hit | High-Risk >15% DD Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 610 | 605 | -1.5% | -3.1% | 1.6% | -9.3% | -13.7% | 2.3% | 26.4% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3M | 597 | 605 | -2.2% | -5.3% | 3.1% | -18.8% | -17.6% | 12.1% | 45.8% | 0.2% | 22.3% | 22.1% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| 6M | 571 | 588 | -3.3% | -7.5% | 4.1% | -18.8% | -20.1% | 25.4% | 58.3% | 3.2% | 37.8% | 34.6% | 3.2% | 13.8% |
| 12M | 538 | 556 | -4.4% | -9.7% | 5.3% | -18.8% | -23.0% | 32.9% | 67.4% | 13.2% | 47.3% | 34.1% | 6.1% | 28.2% |
Methodology
This page defines the language used throughout the packet so the weekly read is explainable in a client or investment-committee setting.
Health Score
Composite breadth score from the individual ETF breadth metric files. It answers: are the holdings inside the ETF broadly confirming the price move?
Weekly Change
Health 1W Change is the 5-trading-day change in the Health Score. This matters because a strong ETF with falling internal health is different from a strong ETF whose internals are still broadening.
Price Proxy Health
For ETFs without constituent breadth files, the packet uses a technical proxy so group summaries are complete instead of blank. The proxy is intentionally less punitive after volatile single-day moves; drawdown damage begins once price is more than 10% below its trailing 1-year high.
Trend Breadth
Measures whether holdings are above key moving averages. This is the cleanest internal trend confirmation signal.
Damage Breadth
Measures internal stress. High damage breadth means the ETF price can look stable while many constituents remain impaired.
ETF Z-Score Overlay
Uses the ETF macro technical deck to judge whether leadership is extended versus each ETF's own history or whether weakness is becoming a repair candidate.
How Z-Scores Flow Through
The z-score layer is not just a table. It feeds the group Strategy Score, then flows into the Model Allocation and Allocation Playbook. Cross-Analysis and Regime also show it explicitly as the chase-versus-repair layer.
Apex Risk Appetite Gauge
Aggregate 0-100 read built from the same ETF price universe used by the group allocation workflow. It is the broad tape input; the PM allocation tables then add breadth, VAMS, CFTC positioning, Options Intelligence, financial conditions, rates/credit, and z-score overlays.
Financial Conditions Ease Index
Macro risk-budget overlay built from USD, oil, 5Y yield, 10Y yield, VIX, and MOVE. Higher scores mean easier conditions. Each input is ranked versus its own rolling history and inverted where lower levels are easier.
S&P 500 Drawdown Risk Gauge
Downside-underwriting score where higher means higher future S&P 500 drawdown risk. It is separate from risk appetite: markets can be rewarding risk while drawdown risk is also elevated, which argues for smaller adds, better entry discipline, or hedges. The validation target is future max drawdown; forward returns are deliberately excluded because sharp recoveries can obscure the risk question.
Options Intelligence Overlay
Validation-aware pressure layer imported from the Options Intelligence deck. It is intentionally not treated as another price-momentum signal. It asks whether options pressure has historically been helpful or harmful for each symbol, then uses path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, urgent hedge demand, and leadership call chase as sizing discipline.
CFTC Positioning Overlay
The CFTC layer has two jobs. Equity-index futures decide whether equity beta is crowded or washed out. Rates/funding futures, including SOFR-3M, are kept as context for the rates deck, FCI, MOVE, duration, and funding-pressure read.
Optimized Base Weights
The allocation model starts from backtested production base weights, then adjusts them with the weekly signal stack. The optimization used weekly equal-weight ETF group returns, PM-style sleeve constraints, and a Sharpe/Calmar/drawdown objective so the base is diversified rather than simply chasing the highest-return sleeve.
Drawdown Risk Predictive Validation
This table is the institutional check on the drawdown gauge. It compares low-risk deciles 1-3 against high-risk deciles 8-10. The model is considered useful when high-risk buckets produce deeper future SPY max drawdowns and higher drawdown hit rates.
The right side of the table is the forward drawdown test. Low-Risk / High-Risk Avg Max DD compare average future max drawdowns; Extra Avg DD Risk is normalized so positive means high-risk readings led to deeper average drawdowns. Worst Max DD is the deepest observed future drawdown in each bucket. The >5%, >10%, and >15% DD Hit columns show the share of observations that later crossed those drawdown thresholds. Extra 10% Hit Risk is normalized so positive means high-risk readings were followed by more frequent 10% drawdowns.
| Horizon | Low-Risk Obs | High-Risk Obs | Low-Risk Avg Max DD | High-Risk Avg Max DD | Extra Avg DD Risk | Low-Risk Worst Max DD | High-Risk Worst Max DD | Low-Risk >5% DD Hit | High-Risk >5% DD Hit | Low-Risk >10% DD Hit | High-Risk >10% DD Hit | Extra 10% Hit Risk | Low-Risk >15% DD Hit | High-Risk >15% DD Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1M | 610 | 605 | -1.5% | -3.1% | 1.6% | -9.3% | -13.7% | 2.3% | 26.4% | 0.0% | 6.0% | 6.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| 3M | 597 | 605 | -2.2% | -5.3% | 3.1% | -18.8% | -17.6% | 12.1% | 45.8% | 0.2% | 22.3% | 22.1% | 0.2% | 2.5% |
| 6M | 571 | 588 | -3.3% | -7.5% | 4.1% | -18.8% | -20.1% | 25.4% | 58.3% | 3.2% | 37.8% | 34.6% | 3.2% | 13.8% |
| 12M | 538 | 556 | -4.4% | -9.7% | 5.3% | -18.8% | -23.0% | 32.9% | 67.4% | 13.2% | 47.3% | 34.1% | 6.1% | 28.2% |
ETF Group Definitions
These Command Center groupings are PM decision buckets built from the same ETF source data. Core Index Beta isolates broad market beta; Growth / Tech Leadership separates technology and semiconductor leadership; Cyclical Sectors and Defensive Sectors split the old broad sector bucket into cleaner regime signals.
| Group | ETF Count | ETFs |
|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta | 6 | SPY, QQQ, IWM, RSP, OEF, XLG |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 12 | XLK, SMH, IGV, CLOU, BUG, AIQ, QTUM, PNQI, ROBO, ARKK, GRID, NXTG |
| Cyclical Sectors | 7 | XLY, XLC, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLB, XHB |
| Defensive Sectors | 4 | XLP, XLV, XLU, XLRE |
| Style / Market Structure | 6 | IWF, IWD, MAGS, XMAG, SPXT, VO |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 5 | SPHD, SPHB, SPLV, MTUM, QUAL |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 16 | XTL, SOCL, HERO, XES, XOP, OIH, CRAK, FCG, COAL, NUKZ, JETS, PAVE, ITA, XTN, CARZ, ITB |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 4 | PINK, UFO, BJK, PEJ |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 10 | KRE, IAK, PSP, IYG, IAI, XBI, IBB, IHF, IHI, IHE |
| Rates / Credit | 14 | STIP, SHY, TIP, IEF, TLT, AGG, CWB, EMLC, EMB, HYG, LQD, BKLN, MBB, PFF |
| Metals / Miners | 10 | GSG, GDX, GDXJ, SIL, SILJ, COPX, URNM, XME, HAP, WOOD |
| International Equity | 8 | EWA, EWZ, FXI, EEM, EZU, INDA, DXJ, EWU |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 12 | DBA, DBB, BTC-USD, DBC, USO, GLD, SLV, URA, PLTM, PALL, CPER, UUP |
Cross-Analysis
This page compares the source deck suite directly. Breadth and ETF technicals define the opportunity set; financial conditions and rates/credit set the risk budget; CFTC, Options Intelligence, and VAMS confirm whether sponsorship, risk transfer, and volatility-adjusted momentum agree with the exposure.
| Question | Breadth | ETF Technicals | Financial Conditions | Rates / Credit | Positioning | Options Intelligence | VAMS / Momentum | Strategy Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Is the rally healthy? | Average health is 50.74 with strongest confirmation in IHE, CRAK, PAVE, XOP. | 1W leadership is USO, GDXJ, GDX, SIL, COPX; 1M leadership is USO, CRAK, GSG, DBC, XOP. | FCI is 28.5 / 100, Tight; macro overlay -3.0. | Spreads are tight, so the backdrop is calm but not cheap. | Equity-index futures set the CFTC equity overlay; SOFR/Treasury futures are rates/funding context. | Options pressure composite is 51.8 / 100 (Balanced options pressure); calm tape 58.0; near-term path risk 48.3; protection demand 52.4; urgent hedge demand 61.5; leadership call chase 75.9; gamma stability 70.1; IV pressure 51.7; macro-options transmission 36.4; pressure confirmation 53.5; allocation overlay +0.4. | VAMS buy rate is 44% across 41 ETFs. Fresh buy groups: Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Metals / Miners, Commodities / Crypto / USD. Fresh sell groups: International Equity, Rates / Credit, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries. | Underweight equity beta. Stay constructive only where breadth, FCI, Options, and VAMS confirm. |
| Where is risk hiding? | Weakest breadth is in UFO, IGV, PALL, URNM; weekly deterioration is led by BUG, MAGS, IGV, CLOU. | Weak 1W price action is in BUG, MAGS, IGV, CLOU, SOCL. | If FCI fades below 45, macro conditions become a beta governor even if price momentum is still positive. | Tight HY/IG spreads leave little cushion if volatility rises. | Crowded longs with weakening price/breadth are the highest-risk setup. | Path risk 48.3, protection demand 52.4, urgent hedge demand 61.5, IV pressure 51.7, leadership call chase 75.9. | Fresh sells are KWEB, SHY, XLP, KRE; sell groups are International Equity, Rates / Credit, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries. | Avoid weak breadth plus options risk-control validation plus fresh VAMS sells plus low credit compensation. |
| Are we chasing or repairing? | Repair only matters when health is stabilizing or improving. | Most extended versus own history: n/a. Washed-out candidates: n/a. Repair candidates: none flagged. | Neutral/tight FCI lowers the tolerance for chasing extended winners. | When credit compensation is thin, extension risk should lower entry aggressiveness. | Crowded longs plus high ETF z-scores are the highest chase-risk combination. | High leadership call chase or high IV pressure makes strong price action less clean; use the PM Action column on the Options page. | Fresh VAMS buys in washed-out ETFs carry more repair value than fresh buys in already-extended ETFs. | Use z-scores and options pressure/crowding as entry discipline: buy confirmed repair, add to leaders on pullbacks, avoid extended weak breadth. |
| What upgrades the view? | 50DMA and 200DMA breadth expands across lagging sectors. | Leadership broadens beyond the current winners. | FCI moves above 55 or keeps improving while VIX/MOVE pressure remains contained. | MOVE stays contained and spreads do not widen. | Positioning broadens without moving into extreme crowding. | Options pressure is add/watch validated while path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, and urgent hedge demand stay contained. | VAMS buy rate rises and fresh buys rotate into cyclical/sector breadth, not only narrow winners. | Move from selective risk-on to broader risk-on and raise adjusted beta exposure. |
| What invalidates the view? | Health scores roll over and damage breadth rises. | Top momentum groups fail while defensives lead for stress reasons. | FCI rolls below 45 or dollar/rates/oil/volatility pressure rises together. | HY OAS widens and rates volatility rises. | Leveraged money exits risk assets or crowded longs unwind against price. | Options risk-control validation, protection demand, urgent hedge demand, IV pressure, or leadership call chase rises while breadth deteriorates. | Fresh sells broaden across cyclicals, tech, credit, and high-beta themes. | Raise quality, cut beta, and prioritize drawdown control. |
Breadth Deck Extract
Average breadth health is 50.74 with 60.4% of ETFs above their 50DMA and 64.9% above their 200DMA. Damage breadth is 20.8%, so the key weekly test is whether participation keeps broadening while damage stays contained. Strongest current health is in IHE, CRAK, PAVE, XOP, DXJ; weakest health is in UFO, IGV, PALL, URNM, PLTM. The biggest one-week breadth improvers are USO, GDXJ, GDX, SIL, COPX, while deterioration is led by BUG, MAGS, IGV, CLOU, SOCL.
ETF Deck Extract
ETF price leadership is led by USO, GDXJ, GDX, SIL, COPX over one week and USO, CRAK, GSG, DBC, XOP over one month. Current laggards are BUG, MAGS, IGV, CLOU, SOCL. The strongest top-down groups are Financial / Health Care Industries, Factors / Risk Appetite, International Equity; the weakest groups are Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Growth / Tech Leadership. This is the rotation layer: use it to separate price leadership that is confirmed by breadth from moves that are narrow, extended, or unsupported by internal participation.
Z-score overlay: extended n/a; washed out n/a; repair watch none flagged.
Yield/Credit Deck Extract
Yield Curve Credit Strategy Chartdeck Yield Curve Credit Strategy Command Center Generated from FRED rates, credit spreads, yfinance proxies, and breadth ETF prices. Credit Summary CIO View Trade Dashboard Methodology Data Guardrails Forward Returns Executive Summary Macro Dashboard Curve Risk Policy / Inflation Credit Deep Dive Quality Premium Cross-Asset Yield Curve Credit Strategy Chartdeck Institutional rates and credit analysis using FRED Treasury, inflation, term-premium, corporate spread, recession, and Yahoo Finance market-proxy data. Latest Data 2026-07-24 Chart Start 2012-01-01 Charts 17 Series 60 Credit Summary Top-of-deck credit strategy page with spread compensation, curve press
Financial Conditions Extract
FCI is 28.5 / 100, Tight, in decile 2/10. One-week change is -7.3 and four-week change is -11.7. The model overlay is -3.0; higher readings loosen the macro risk budget, while lower readings raise the bar for new beta.
CFTC Positioning Extract
CFTC Positioning Dashboard An institutional view of who is long, who is short, where positioning is crowded, and whether futures behavior confirms or conflicts with price. Includes net spec, asset manager, hedge fund/leveraged money, retail/non-reportable, commercial/dealer, open interest, gross crowding, z-score, percentile, and week-over-week change lenses. Assets Covered 17 Latest CFTC Data 07/21/2026 Core Lens Asset Managers + Hedge Funds Most Crowded Long Highest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. 10-Year Treasury Notes 100.0% 5-Year Treasury Notes 97.4% Copper 96.2% Most Crowded Short Lowest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. Nasdaq 100 1.9% SOFR-3M 3.2% Russell 2000 5.8% Price / Positioning Confirmation Assets where 13-week price action and institutional/HF positioning are moving together. S&P 500 6.6% price / 3.7K pos Copper 8.1% price / 11.9K pos US Dollar 3.7% price / 13.3K pos
Rates/funding context: SOFR-3M: Crowded Short; percentile 3.2%; 13W price -0.4%; 13W Inst/HF -2.5M. Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay
Options Intelligence Extract
Options pressure composite is 51.8 / 100 (Balanced options pressure); calm tape 58.0; near-term path risk 48.3; protection demand 52.4; urgent hedge demand 61.5; leadership call chase 75.9; gamma stability 70.1; IV pressure 51.7; macro-options transmission 36.4; pressure confirmation 53.5; allocation overlay +0.4. Source deck summary: Options Intelligence Derivatives Risk Transfer Layer Options Intelligence End-of-day options intelligence organized around raw option-chain metrics first: put/call, IV, IV versus realized volatility, call activity, gamma, walls, surfaces, and forward-return validation. Latest Options Date July 24, 2026 Universe 35 symbols OPTIONS DECK Executive Raw Metrics ETF Snapshots ETF Panels What Changed PM Matrix IV vs RV Flow / IV Gamma / Walls Surfaces Heatmap Options Breadth Path Risk Convexity Sectors Call Chase Validation Methodology Glossary Executive Command Page CIO-level summary of current PM Action, risk-control warnings, and add/watch candidates supported by Forward Return Evidence. PM Read Neutral / selective. Use options evidence as a timing and sizing layer. Favor symbols where raw options pressure is supported by Forward Return Evidence. Asset / portfolio read: If add/watch names supported by Forward Return Evidence are expanding, options can support more exposure after price and
VAMS Signal Extract
VAMS buy rate is 44% across 41 ETFs. Fresh buy groups: Cyclical Sectors, Defensive Sectors, Metals / Miners, Commodities / Crypto / USD. Fresh sell groups: International Equity, Rates / Credit, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries. Fresh buys: XLU, XLI, XLB, GDX, XLV, SIL, XHB, GLD. Fresh sells: KWEB, SHY, XLP, KRE. Allocation overlay: +1.2.
Confirmation / Divergence Matrix
| Signal Pair | What To Look For | Current Use |
|---|---|---|
| Price up + breadth up | 1W/1M returns positive while Health 1W Change improves. | Highest-quality leadership; candidates for overweight or add-on exposure. |
| Price up + breadth down | ETF rallying while internal participation deteriorates. | Late-stage or narrowing leadership; keep position size disciplined. |
| Price down + breadth up | ETF weak on price but internals repair. | Early repair watchlist; useful for rotation candidates. |
| Price down + breadth down | Weak returns, weak health, rising damage. | Avoid, underweight, or require a cleaner reversal signal. |
Weekly Changes
This page compares the current run against the prior saved command-center snapshot. The first time you run the packet, prior-week changes will be blank; after that, this becomes the weekly change log.
Biggest Group Upgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals / Miners | 2026-07-17 | 14.40 | 26.01 | 39.23 | 14.76 | 28.0% | 10.0% | 63.3% | -2.5% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 2026-07-17 | 25.74 | 8.05 | 51.72 | 4.67 | 51.7% | 3.3% | 47.0% | -3.8% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 2026-07-17 | 39.17 | 5.28 | 71.03 | -0.03 | 72.0% | -4.0% | 2.0% | -1.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 2026-07-17 | 26.28 | 4.64 | 53.51 | 1.62 | 46.2% | 0.0% | 23.4% | -1.5% |
| International Equity | 2026-07-17 | 35.18 | 3.32 | 64.55 | 0.96 | 62.5% | 0.0% | 9.1% | 0.1% |
| Defensive Sectors | 2026-07-17 | 31.68 | 0.26 | 45.71 | -5.52 | 70.1% | 0.7% | 9.1% | 0.4% |
Biggest Group Downgrades
| Group | Prior Date | Strategy Score | Strategy Score Change | Health | Health Change | Trend_Breadth | Trend_Breadth Change | Damage_Breadth | Damage_Breadth Change |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Style / Market Structure | 2026-07-17 | 27.52 | -14.98 | 57.94 | -17.12 | 53.3% | -30.0% | 1.2% | 1.2% |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2026-07-17 | 3.56 | -10.74 | 33.60 | -15.04 | 32.6% | -17.2% | 26.3% | 4.4% |
| Rates / Credit | 2026-07-17 | 17.31 | -8.66 | 43.14 | -11.18 | 21.4% | -20.0% | 0.0% | 0.0% |
| Core Index Beta | 2026-07-17 | 22.98 | -7.48 | 48.81 | -10.75 | 50.5% | -18.3% | 6.1% | -1.5% |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 2026-07-17 | 41.13 | -5.97 | 75.50 | -6.70 | 80.0% | -8.0% | 9.2% | 0.5% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 2026-07-17 | 9.17 | -2.99 | 43.42 | -6.21 | 40.0% | -13.3% | 32.3% | 0.1% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 2026-07-17 | 23.16 | -2.16 | 39.60 | -3.18 | 60.4% | 0.2% | 15.3% | -0.0% |
How to use: focus on groups where Strategy Score improves while Damage Breadth falls, or where Strategy Score deteriorates while Damage Breadth rises. Those are the cleanest week-over-week confirmation signals.
Portfolio Regime
Current regime: Cut Risk And Wait For Repair. Internal damage or weak trend participation argues for beta restraint. The priority is drawdown control until breadth repair is visible. The average z-score overlay is 0.00, so extension/repair is being included in the strategy score rather than treated as a separate afterthought.
Regime Inputs
| Metric | Reading | Interpretation |
|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta Health | 48.8 / 100 (6 ETFs) | Broad index health supports SPY/QQQ/IWM-style exposure when strong; weak readings keep beta selective. |
| Cyclical Sector Health | 39.6 / 100 (7 ETFs) | Cyclical health measures whether economically sensitive sectors are confirming risk appetite. |
| Defensive Sector Health | 45.7 / 100 (4 ETFs) | Defensive health shows whether safety-oriented sectors are taking leadership. |
| Balanced Sector Health | 42.7 / 100 | Balanced sector health measures whether participation is broad enough across sector types to trust the move. |
| Growth/Tech Health | 33.6 / 100 (12 ETFs) | Growth/tech health identifies whether leadership is concentrated in long-duration equity. |
| Rates/Credit Health | 43.1 / 100 (14 ETFs) | Rates/credit health is the risk-budget governor: strong readings support carry; weak readings argue for restraint. |
| Avg Damage Breadth | 20.8 / 100 | Damage breadth measures internal stress under the surface. Lower readings are healthier. |
| % ETFs Above 50DMA | 41.6% (47/113 ETFs) | The 50DMA reading measures intermediate-term participation. Higher readings mean broader trend support. |
| % ETFs Above 200DMA | 61.9% (70/113 ETFs) | The 200DMA reading measures long-term trend participation. Higher readings support durable exposure. |
| Average 1W Return | 0.5% | The weekly return impulse shows whether current price action is confirming the broader signal. |
| 3M ETF Return Range | High 14.4% / Low -30.5% | Shows dispersion across the ETF universe over the last three months. |
| Average ETF Extension Z | n/a z | ETF-deck z-score layer: positive readings mean the universe is stretched versus its own history; negative readings flag repair or washed-out conditions. |
| Extended ETF Count | 0/113 ETFs | Number of ETFs with Extension Z at or above +2.0. High counts argue for pullback discipline even when breadth is strong. |
| Washed-Out ETF Count | 0/113 ETFs | Number of ETFs with Extension Z at or below -1.25. High counts help identify repair candidates when breadth starts improving. |
| Average Group Z-Score Overlay | 0.00 avg group adjustment | Average group-level adjustment from return/MA z-scores. This is included in Strategy Score, Model Allocation, and Allocation Playbook. |
| Risk Appetite Gauge | 38.6 / 100 | Broad ETF tape confirmation. Higher readings mean the tape is rewarding risk-taking. |
| Financial Conditions Ease | 28.5 / 100 | Macro risk-budget input from USD, rates, oil, VIX, and MOVE. Higher readings mean easier conditions. |
| S&P 500 Drawdown Risk | 65.8 / 100 | Downside-underwriting input. Higher readings mean drawdown risk is a larger constraint. |
| Options Pressure Composite | 51.8 / 100 (Balanced options pressure) | Validation-aware options-pressure input from options markets. High pressure is useful only when PM Action confirms add/watch rather than risk control. |
| Options Path Risk | 48.3 / 100 | High readings point to a rougher near-term path, protection demand, IV pressure, or weaker gamma support under the surface. |
Regime Decision Framework
| Portfolio State | What Has To Be True | PM Action |
|---|---|---|
| Add Broad Equity Risk | Indexes and sectors are both healthy; damage breadth is contained. | Own broad beta, reduce cash drag, and add to confirmed leaders. |
| Own Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market | Tech/growth is strong, but sector breadth is not broad enough. | Keep exposure concentrated in confirmed growth leadership; avoid broad-market overconfidence. |
| Favor Cyclicals And Economic Beta | Cyclicals lead, defensives lag, and damage remains controlled. | Favor discretionary, financials, industrials, materials, housing, and infrastructure if credit confirms. |
| Get Defensive | Defensive sectors lead while cyclicals lag. | Cut cyclical beta; prefer quality, staples, health care, utilities, real estate, or cash. |
| Participate, But Keep Quality Bias | Broad beta is usable and rates/credit are stable, but breadth is not strong enough for maximum risk. | Participate through higher-quality equity, duration, and credit expressions; avoid weak beta chase. |
| Favor Real Assets / Inflation Hedges | Commodity and real-asset groups lead while growth weakens. | Shift incremental risk toward energy, materials, metals, commodities, or inflation hedges. |
| Cut Risk And Wait For Repair | Damage breadth is high or fewer ETFs remain in intermediate uptrends. | Raise quality, reduce beta, use cash, and wait for breadth repair before adding risk. |
| Selective Only | Signals are strong in pockets but uneven across the whole map. | Use group diagnostics and VAMS confirmation to choose exposures one sleeve at a time. |
Rates / Credit Overview
This page translates the yield-curve institutional chartdeck into the equity strategy process. Rates and credit are the risk governor: they decide whether strong equity breadth should be chased, sized normally, or faded because compensation is poor.
Rates / Credit Group Score
Live ETF behavior from the Rates / Credit sleeve in prices.csv.
Yield Deck CIO Read
One-Page CIO View Portfolio-level read-through: what changed this week, what matters now, what to watch next, and best/worst risk expressions. CIO Read This is the one-page portfolio translation: what changed, what matters now, what to watch next, and the best/worst risk expressions implied by the rates-credit regime. What Changed This Week 10Y Yield 11 bps HY OAS 8 bps 2s10s -5 bps IG OAS 1 bps What Matters Now HY OAS 2.77 / 24 pctile IG OAS 0.79 / 28 pctile MOVE 70.88 / 22 pctile 10Y Real 2.43 / 100 pctile What To Watch Next Rates vol MOVE rising while spreads stay tight Curve confirmation 2s10s vs 3m10y signal divergence Quality cliff BBB/BB and CCC spread gaps Forward analogs Whether cur
Trade Translation Extract
Trade Dashboard Methodology Data Guardrails Forward Returns Executive Summary Macro Dashboard Curve Risk Policy / Inflation Credit Deep Dive Quality Premium Cross-Asset Yield Curve Credit Strategy Chartdeck Institutional rates and credit analysis using FRED Treasury, inflation, term-premium, corporate spread, recession, and Yahoo Finance market-proxy data. Latest Data 2026-07-24 Chart Start 2012-01-01 Charts 17 Series 60 Credit Summary Top-of-deck credit strategy page with spread compensation, curve pressure, real-rate pressure, and volatility stress markers. Credit Strategy Summary Current stance: Complacent / Tight-Risk Premium. HY OAS is 2.77 with a 24 percentile reading; IG OAS is 0.79 with a 28 percentile reading. The 10Y real yield is 2.43%, 2s10s is 34 bps, and 3m10y is 76 bps. What matters for credit: spread compensation, real-rate pressure, curve inversion persistence, and rates volatility are pulled onto one page before the full deck drills into the components. Credit Risk Pr
Rates / Credit Dashboard Logic
| Area | Signal | Current Read |
|---|---|---|
| Credit Risk Premium | HY and IG spreads from the yield-curve deck frame whether credit beta is being paid enough. | Tight spread compensation; favor quality over lower-quality beta. |
| Rates Pressure | 2Y, 10Y, real yield, breakevens, and curve shape determine the duration/risk-asset discount-rate backdrop. | Real-yield pressure matters for equity duration and growth leadership. |
| Curve / Recession Signal | 2s10s and 3m10y show whether the curve is steepening, inverted, or normalizing. | Use curve shifts as a macro confirmation or warning signal. |
| Volatility Stress | MOVE and spread widening flag whether calm credit conditions are breaking. | If MOVE rises while spreads remain tight, reduce credit complacency. |
| Trade Translation | The yield deck converts rates, credit, curve, and volatility into candidate expressions. | Quality credit and duration are the governor on equity beta. |
Rates / Credit ETF Sleeve
| Ticker | Name | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| STIP | Short-Term TIPS | Price proxy | 55.06 | -3.01 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 40.0% | 55.2% | 0.0% | False | True |
| SHY | 1-3 Year Treasury | Price proxy | 73.30 | -2.65 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 80.0% | 55.8% | 0.0% | True | True |
| TIP | TIPS | Price proxy | 33.88 | -7.26 | -0.5% | -0.8% | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 47.2% | 0.0% | False | False |
| IEF | 7-10 Year Treasury | Price proxy | 33.41 | -7.96 | -0.5% | -1.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 46.0% | 0.0% | False | False |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | Price proxy | 29.40 | -9.73 | -0.8% | -2.6% | -0.9% | -1.5% | -3.5% | 0.0% | 36.0% | 0.0% | False | False |
| AGG | Aggregate Bonds | Price proxy | 33.29 | -6.90 | -0.5% | -1.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 45.7% | 0.0% | False | False |
| CWB | Convertible Bonds | Price proxy | 46.92 | -4.78 | -0.3% | -2.8% | -3.7% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 40.0% | 34.8% | 0.0% | False | True |
| EMLC | EM Local Currency Bonds | Price proxy | 34.47 | -8.67 | -0.6% | -1.0% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 48.7% | 0.0% | False | False |
| EMB | EM USD Bonds | Price proxy | 32.58 | -10.09 | -0.8% | -1.6% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | False | False |
| HYG | High Yield Credit | Price proxy | 53.18 | -8.32 | -0.6% | -0.6% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 40.0% | 50.4% | 0.0% | False | True |
| LQD | Investment Grade Credit | Price proxy | 29.51 | -10.44 | -0.9% | -2.2% | -1.3% | 0.0% | -0.7% | 0.0% | 36.3% | 0.0% | False | False |
| BKLN | Senior Loans | Price proxy | 83.78 | -1.77 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 100.0% | 59.4% | 0.0% | True | True |
| MBB | Mortgage-Backed Bonds | Price proxy | 33.76 | -6.55 | -0.5% | -1.1% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 46.9% | 0.0% | False | False |
| PFF | Preferred Stock | Price proxy | 31.40 | -7.61 | -0.5% | -1.0% | -2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 41.0% | 0.0% | False | False |
Rates / Credit Group Snapshot
| Group | ETFs | Strategy Score | Health | Health_1W_Chg | Return_1W | Return_1M | Return_3M | Trend_Breadth | Damage_Breadth | Above_50DMA | Above_200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rates / Credit | 14 | 17.31 | 43.14 | -6.84 | -0.5% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 21.4% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 35.7% |
| Rates/Credit Condition | Equity Strategy Implication | Portfolio Translation |
|---|---|---|
| Spreads tight + breadth strong | Risk-on can continue, but forward compensation is less forgiving. | Participate through quality leadership, avoid weak-credit beta chase. |
| Spreads widening + breadth deteriorating | Equity signal is being invalidated by credit stress. | Cut beta, raise quality, increase cash/duration ballast. |
| Yields falling + defensives leading | Could be duration relief or growth scare; breadth decides which. | Check whether cyclicals confirm before adding broad beta. |
| Real yields rising + growth extended | Higher discount-rate pressure can hit long-duration equity leadership. | Keep tech/growth exposure selective and watch breadth divergence. |
Positioning Overview
This page translates the CFTC positioning deck into the weekly strategy process without embedding the full source deck. Positioning is the sponsorship and crowding layer: it helps decide whether price and breadth strength are still early, well-owned, or vulnerable to a positioning unwind.
CFTC Dashboard Read
CFTC Positioning Dashboard An institutional view of who is long, who is short, where positioning is crowded, and whether futures behavior confirms or conflicts with price. Includes net spec, asset manager, hedge fund/leveraged money, retail/non-reportable, commercial/dealer, open interest, gross crowding, z-score, percentile, and week-over-week change lenses. Assets Covered 17 Latest CFTC Data 07/21/2026 Core Lens Asset Managers + Hedge Funds Most Crowded Long Highest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. 10-Year Treasury Notes 100.0% 5-Year Treasury Notes 97.4% Copper 96.2% Most Crowded Short Lowest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. Nasdaq 100 1.9% SOFR-3M 3.2% Russell 2000 5.8% Price / Positioning Confirmation Assets where 13-week price action and institutional/HF positioning are moving together. S&P 500 6.6% price / 3.7K pos Copper 8.1% price / 11.9K pos US Dollar 3.7% price / 13.3K pos
Weekly Tactical Highlights
Weekly And Tactical Highlights Largest one-week positioning moves, plus the 4-week and 13-week context that separates noise from a real allocation shift. Asset WoW Inst/HF 4W Inst/HF 13W Inst/HF 13W Price Read SOFR-3M 54.6K 44.3K -2.5M -0.4% Risk-Off Confirmation 10-Year Treasury Notes 39.6K 17.0K 312.3K -2.4% Buying Into Weakness Japanese Yen -31.8K -635.0 -93.2K 2.4% Price Up / Positioning Fading S&P 500 30.8K -13.0K 3.7K 6.6% Trend Confirmed 2-Year Treasury Notes 24.7K -4.0K 7.0K -0.9% Buying Into Weakness Euro FX -21.4K -67.1K -134.5K -2.9% Risk-Off Confirmation 5-Year Treasury Notes -19.5K -25.1K 350.3K -1.9% Buying Into Weakness Nasdaq 100 -12.0K -13.9K -47.4K 10.0% Price Up / Positioning Fading Copper 11.3K 5.0K 11.9K 8.1% Trend Confirmed Russell 2000 6.2K -23.3K -33.4K 8.3% Price Up / Positioning Fading
Cross-Asset Positioning Snapshot
Cross-Asset Dashboard Weekly Highlights Full Metric Library S&P 500 Nasdaq 100 Russell 2000 Natural Gas Crude Oil Gold Silver Copper Bitcoin US Dollar Euro FX Japanese Yen VIX SOFR-3M 2-Year Treasury Notes 5-Year Treasury Notes 10-Year Treasury Notes Positioning data is sourced directly from the official CFTC Public Reporting API. Prices use Yahoo Finance. Apex Macro Research CFTC Positioning Dashboard An institutional view of who is long, who is short, where positioning is crowded, and whether futures behavior confirms or conflicts with price. Includes net spec, asset manager, hedge fund/leveraged money, retail/non-reportable, commercial/dealer, open interest, gross crowding, z-score, percentile, and week-over-week change lenses. Assets Covered 17 Latest CFTC Data 07/21/2026 Core Lens Asset Managers + Hedge Funds Most Crowded Long Highest 3-year percentile for Asset Manager + Leveraged Money net positioning. 10-Year Treasury Notes 100.0% 5-Year Treasury Notes 97.4% Copper 96.2% Most C
Actionable Positioning Playbook
| Setup | Signal | Action |
|---|---|---|
| Crowded long + price/breadth confirmation | High positioning percentile, positive 13W price, and supportive breadth. | Maintain exposure, but add only on clean pullbacks or fresh breadth expansion. |
| Crowded long + positioning fading | Price rises while institutional/HF positioning rolls over. | Treat as narrowing sponsorship; reduce chase risk and watch for reversal. |
| Crowded short + price stabilization | Low positioning percentile while price and/or breadth stop deteriorating. | Add to repair watchlist; squeeze risk can be favorable if macro backdrop confirms. |
| SOFR-3M crowded short | Low institutional/HF percentile in SOFR futures with weak front-end futures price action. | Treat as front-end funding or hawkish-policy pressure. It informs rates/FCI/MOVE risk control, but it does not directly change the equity CFTC overlay. |
| Large WoW positioning add | One-week institutional/HF flow is one of the largest in the table. | Check whether this is confirmation of a trend or late crowding into an extended move. |
| Large WoW positioning cut | One-week institutional/HF selling is concentrated in an asset. | Use as a risk warning when price is also weak; use as contrarian fuel only if price holds. |
Rates / Funding Positioning Lens
SOFR-3M and Treasury futures are treated separately from equity-index futures. They help interpret policy-rate, funding, duration, MOVE, and financial-conditions pressure. They do not directly drive the equity CFTC overlay, which remains based on S&P 500, Nasdaq 100, and Russell 2000 futures.
| Asset | Role | Current Read | PM Translation |
|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR-3M | Front-end policy / funding | Crowded Short; percentile 3.2%; 13W price -0.4%; 13W Inst/HF -2.5M | Crowded short SOFR futures point to positioning for higher implied front-end rates or less easing; treat as a rates-vol/funding-pressure check, not an equity-beta overlay. |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | Treasury duration | Crowded Long; percentile 96.2%; 13W price -0.9%; 13W Inst/HF 7.0K | Duration is crowded long; avoid assuming further rate relief without price confirmation and credit stability. |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | Treasury duration | Crowded Long; percentile 97.4%; 13W price -1.9%; 13W Inst/HF 350.3K | Duration is crowded long; avoid assuming further rate relief without price confirmation and credit stability. |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | Treasury duration | Crowded Long; percentile 100.0%; 13W price -2.4%; 13W Inst/HF 312.3K | Duration is crowded long; avoid assuming further rate relief without price confirmation and credit stability. |
Positioning Visual Dashboard
Use these visuals first. They condense the long CFTC tables into three questions: what is crowded, what is confirming price, and where did positioning change most this week?
| Asset | Price 13W | OI 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6.6% | -1.2% | 31.3% | 67.9% | 3.7K | Long Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
| Nasdaq 100 | 10.0% | 7.2% | -0.7% | 1.9% | -47.4K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Russell 2000 | 8.3% | 0.0% | -18.1% | 5.8% | -33.4K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Natural Gas | -5.0% | 6.5% | -6.1% | 17.3% | -2.2K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Crude Oil | 0.5% | -6.1% | 3.4% | 19.9% | -35.9K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Gold | -12.7% | 4.8% | 32.6% | 48.7% | 31.9K | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness |
| Silver | -22.5% | -7.8% | 10.6% | 26.9% | 2.4K | Short Tilt | Buying Into Weakness |
| Copper | 8.1% | 7.8% | 26.5% | 96.2% | 11.9K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| Bitcoin | -12.9% | -17.9% | -25.4% | 45.5% | 142.0 | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness |
| US Dollar | 3.7% | 76.0% | 33.2% | 80.8% | 13.3K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| Euro FX | -2.9% | 1.2% | 21.5% | 10.3% | -134.5K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Japanese Yen | 2.4% | 20.5% | -41.6% | 5.8% | -93.2K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| VIX | -12.6% | 17.2% | -9.7% | 39.1% | 5.1K | Short Tilt | Buying Into Weakness |
| SOFR-3M | -0.4% | 8.6% | -24.6% | 3.2% | -2.5M | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -0.9% | -7.7% | 5.2% | 96.2% | 7.0K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | -1.9% | -5.3% | 11.7% | 97.4% | 350.3K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | -2.4% | 1.1% | 9.0% | 100.0% | 312.3K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
Asset-By-Asset Strategist Takeaways
This table is meant to be enough for the weekly meeting: what price did, how crowded institutional/HF positioning is, whether the pressure read confirms or diverges, and the resulting strategy implication.
| Asset | 13W Price | Positioning Percentile | COT Read | Pressure Read | Strategist Takeaway |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6.6% | 67.9% | Long Tilt | Trend Confirmed | Balanced / mid-range. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Nasdaq 100 | 10.0% | 1.9% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Crowded short. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| Russell 2000 | 8.3% | 5.8% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Crowded short. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| Natural Gas | -5.0% | 17.3% | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation | Crowded short. Watch for squeeze/repair if price stabilizes. |
| Crude Oil | 0.5% | 19.9% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Crowded short. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| Gold | -12.7% | 48.7% | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness | Balanced / mid-range. Positioning is not the binding constraint. |
| Silver | -22.5% | 26.9% | Short Tilt | Buying Into Weakness | Balanced / mid-range. Positioning is not the binding constraint. |
| Copper | 8.1% | 96.2% | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed | Crowded long. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Bitcoin | -12.9% | 45.5% | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness | Balanced / mid-range. Positioning is not the binding constraint. |
| US Dollar | 3.7% | 80.8% | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed | Crowded long. Trend is confirmed by positioning; maintain bias while monitoring crowding. |
| Euro FX | -2.9% | 10.3% | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation | Crowded short. Watch for squeeze/repair if price stabilizes. |
| Japanese Yen | 2.4% | 5.8% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading | Crowded short. Price and positioning are diverging; treat sponsorship as weaker than price alone implies. |
| VIX | -12.6% | 39.1% | Short Tilt | Buying Into Weakness | Balanced / mid-range. Positioning is not the binding constraint. |
| SOFR-3M | -0.4% | 3.2% | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation | Crowded short. Watch for squeeze/repair if price stabilizes. |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -0.9% | 96.2% | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded long. Do not chase without fresh breadth or price confirmation. |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | -1.9% | 97.4% | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded long. Do not chase without fresh breadth or price confirmation. |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | -2.4% | 100.0% | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness | Crowded long. Do not chase without fresh breadth or price confirmation. |
Cross-Asset CFTC Dashboard
This is the highest-level positioning table from the source deck: price trend, open interest, institutional/HF positioning percentile, net positioning, and pressure read.
| Asset | Positioning Bucket | Latest Date | Price 13W | OI 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | Asset Manager Net | Lev Money Net | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Equity Index | 2026-07-21 | 6.6% | -1.2% | 31.3% | 67.9% | 3.7K | 929.2K | -322.9K | Long Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
| Nasdaq 100 | Equity Index | 2026-07-21 | 10.0% | 7.2% | -0.7% | 1.9% | -47.4K | 72.6K | -74.7K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Russell 2000 | Equity Index | 2026-07-21 | 8.3% | 0.0% | -18.1% | 5.8% | -33.4K | -890.0 | -73.5K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Natural Gas | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | -5.0% | 6.5% | -6.1% | 17.3% | -2.2K | n/a | -102.8K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Crude Oil | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 0.5% | -6.1% | 3.4% | 19.9% | -35.9K | n/a | 64.0K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Gold | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | -12.7% | 4.8% | 32.6% | 48.7% | 31.9K | n/a | 124.8K | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness |
| Silver | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | -22.5% | -7.8% | 10.6% | 26.9% | 2.4K | n/a | 11.3K | Short Tilt | Buying Into Weakness |
| Copper | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 8.1% | 7.8% | 26.5% | 96.2% | 11.9K | n/a | 71.5K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| Bitcoin | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | -12.9% | -17.9% | -25.4% | 45.5% | 142.0 | 2.7K | -7.9K | Balanced | Buying Into Weakness |
| US Dollar | FX | 2026-07-21 | 3.7% | 76.0% | 33.2% | 80.8% | 13.3K | 19.9K | -1.9K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| Euro FX | FX | 2026-07-21 | -2.9% | 1.2% | 21.5% | 10.3% | -134.5K | 228.9K | -56.7K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Japanese Yen | FX | 2026-07-21 | 2.4% | 20.5% | -41.6% | 5.8% | -93.2K | -79.9K | -96.2K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| VIX | Volatility | 2026-07-21 | -12.6% | 17.2% | -9.7% | 39.1% | 5.1K | -41.5K | 3.1K | Short Tilt | Buying Into Weakness |
| SOFR-3M | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | -0.4% | 8.6% | -24.6% | 3.2% | -2.5M | -521.2K | -2.7M | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | -0.9% | -7.7% | 5.2% | 96.2% | 7.0K | 1.8M | -1.6M | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | -1.9% | -5.3% | 11.7% | 97.4% | 350.3K | 2.9M | -2.1M | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | -2.4% | 1.1% | 9.0% | 100.0% | 312.3K | 2.5M | -2.1M | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
Most Crowded Longs
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | -2.4% | 9.0% | 100.0% | 312.3K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | -1.9% | 11.7% | 97.4% | 350.3K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| Copper | 8.1% | 26.5% | 96.2% | 11.9K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | -0.9% | 5.2% | 96.2% | 7.0K | Crowded Long | Buying Into Weakness |
| US Dollar | 3.7% | 33.2% | 80.8% | 13.3K | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| S&P 500 | 6.6% | 31.3% | 67.9% | 3.7K | Long Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
Most Crowded Shorts
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF 13W | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 10.0% | -0.7% | 1.9% | -47.4K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| SOFR-3M | -0.4% | -24.6% | 3.2% | -2.5M | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Russell 2000 | 8.3% | -18.1% | 5.8% | -33.4K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Japanese Yen | 2.4% | -41.6% | 5.8% | -93.2K | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Euro FX | -2.9% | 21.5% | 10.3% | -134.5K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| Natural Gas | -5.0% | -6.1% | 17.3% | -2.2K | Crowded Short | Risk-Off Confirmation |
Week-Over-Week Positioning Changes
Largest institutional/HF positioning adds and cuts. Use these to separate fresh sponsorship from crowded late-cycle chasing.
Largest WoW Buying
| Asset | WoW Inst/HF | 4W Inst/HF | 13W Inst/HF | 13W Price | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SOFR-3M | 54.6K | 44.3K | -2.5M | -0.4% | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | 39.6K | 17.0K | 312.3K | -2.4% | Buying Into Weakness |
| S&P 500 | 30.8K | -13.0K | 3.7K | 6.6% | Trend Confirmed |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | 24.7K | -4.0K | 7.0K | -0.9% | Buying Into Weakness |
| Copper | 11.3K | 5.0K | 11.9K | 8.1% | Trend Confirmed |
| Russell 2000 | 6.2K | -23.3K | -33.4K | 8.3% | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
Largest WoW Selling
| Asset | WoW Inst/HF | 4W Inst/HF | 13W Inst/HF | 13W Price | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Japanese Yen | -31.8K | -635.0 | -93.2K | 2.4% | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Euro FX | -21.4K | -67.1K | -134.5K | -2.9% | Risk-Off Confirmation |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | -19.5K | -25.1K | 350.3K | -1.9% | Buying Into Weakness |
| Nasdaq 100 | -12.0K | -13.9K | -47.4K | 10.0% | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Russell 2000 | 6.2K | -23.3K | -33.4K | 8.3% | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Copper | 11.3K | 5.0K | 11.9K | 8.1% | Trend Confirmed |
Confirmation And Divergence
Trend Confirmed
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF 13W | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 6.6% | 3.7K | 67.9% | Long Tilt | Trend Confirmed |
| Copper | 8.1% | 11.9K | 96.2% | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
| US Dollar | 3.7% | 13.3K | 80.8% | Crowded Long | Trend Confirmed |
Price Up / Positioning Fading
| Asset | Price 13W | Inst/HF 13W | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | COT Read | Pressure Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nasdaq 100 | 10.0% | -47.4K | 1.9% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Russell 2000 | 8.3% | -33.4K | 5.8% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Crude Oil | 0.5% | -35.9K | 19.9% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
| Japanese Yen | 2.4% | -93.2K | 5.8% | Crowded Short | Price Up / Positioning Fading |
Important Weekly Positioning Charts
| Chart / Table | Weekly Question |
|---|---|
| Cross-Asset Dashboard | Which assets are crowded long, crowded short, or trend confirmed? |
| Weekly And Tactical Highlights | Where did institutional/HF positioning change most over 1W, 4W, and 13W? |
| S&P 500 Positioning | Is broad equity beta sponsored by positioning or exposed to a crowding unwind? |
| Nasdaq 100 Positioning | Is growth leadership still supported or becoming a crowded long? |
| Russell 2000 Positioning | Is small-cap exposure washed out enough to support repair or still structurally weak? |
| SOFR-3M Positioning | Is front-end policy/funding positioning leaning toward tighter or easier rate expectations? |
| 2Y / 5Y / 10Y Treasury Positioning | Is the rates view being driven by front-end policy expectations, belly duration, or long-end duration? |
| US Dollar, Euro FX, And Japanese Yen | Are FX futures flows confirming or challenging the dollar/liquidity backdrop? |
| Crude Oil And Natural Gas | Are energy positioning flows confirming inflation-sensitive commodity pressure or fading it? |
| Gold, Silver, Copper, And Bitcoin | Are real-asset and liquidity-sensitive positioning flows supporting the macro risk read? |
Selected Full Metric Library
Condensed source-table fields that matter most for weekly strategy: price, open interest, institutional/HF net exposure, z-score, percentile, and positioning changes over 1W, 4W, and 13W.
| Asset | Positioning Bucket | Latest Date | Latest Price | Price 4W | Price 13W | Open Interest | OI 4W | OI 13W | Inst/HF Net | Inst/HF %OI | Inst/HF 1Y Z | Inst/HF 3Y %ile | Inst/HF WoW | Inst/HF 4W | Inst/HF 13W |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | Equity Index | 2026-07-21 | 748.3 | 2.0% | 6.6% | 1.9M | -2.1% | -1.2% | 606.3K | 31.3% | 1.18 | 67.9% | 30.8K | -13.0K | 3.7K |
| Nasdaq 100 | Equity Index | 2026-07-21 | 709.0 | -0.7% | 10.0% | 286.9K | 8.2% | 7.2% | -2.1K | -0.7% | -2.27 | 1.9% | -12.0K | -13.9K | -47.4K |
| Russell 2000 | Equity Index | 2026-07-21 | 296.5 | 0.4% | 8.3% | 411.5K | 6.4% | 0.0% | -74.4K | -18.1% | -0.88 | 5.8% | 6.2K | -23.3K | -33.4K |
| Natural Gas | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 10.4 | -9.6% | -5.0% | 1.7M | 4.1% | 6.5% | -102.8K | -6.1% | -1.11 | 17.3% | 3.0K | -20.0K | -2.2K |
| Crude Oil | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 128.9 | 15.8% | 0.5% | 1.9M | -2.5% | -6.1% | 64.0K | 3.4% | 0.4 | 19.9% | 2.0K | -18.9K | -35.9K |
| Gold | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 374.8 | -0.7% | -12.7% | 383.4K | 8.9% | 4.8% | 124.8K | 32.6% | 0.39 | 48.7% | 4.1K | 9.4K | 31.9K |
| Silver | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 53.1 | -4.8% | -22.5% | 106.4K | -2.3% | -7.8% | 11.3K | 10.6% | -0.65 | 26.9% | -219.0 | -459.0 | 2.4K |
| Copper | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 39.5 | 5.9% | 8.1% | 270.0K | 0.5% | 7.8% | 71.5K | 26.5% | 1.11 | 96.2% | 11.3K | 5.0K | 11.9K |
| Bitcoin | Commodities / Crypto | 2026-07-21 | 66.5K | 6.1% | -12.9% | 20.5K | -0.1% | -17.9% | -5.2K | -25.4% | 0.07 | 45.5% | -546.0 | -1.7K | 142.0 |
| US Dollar | FX | 2026-07-21 | 28.5 | 0.1% | 3.7% | 54.0K | -1.7% | 76.0% | 17.9K | 33.2% | 2.0 | 80.8% | 740.0 | 4.6K | 13.3K |
| Euro FX | FX | 2026-07-21 | 1.1 | 0.2% | -2.9% | 800.1K | 1.9% | 1.2% | 172.3K | 21.5% | -2.37 | 10.3% | -21.4K | -67.1K | -134.5K |
| Japanese Yen | FX | 2026-07-21 | 163.2 | 1.0% | 2.4% | 423.8K | -1.7% | 20.5% | -176.1K | -41.6% | -1.96 | 5.8% | -31.8K | -635.0 | -93.2K |
| VIX | Volatility | 2026-07-21 | 17.0 | -12.5% | -12.6% | 396.5K | 12.2% | 17.2% | -38.4K | -9.7% | 0.98 | 39.1% | -5.3K | 5.0K | 5.1K |
| SOFR-3M | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | 96.0 | 0.0% | -0.4% | 13.1M | 2.7% | 8.6% | -3.2M | -24.6% | -2.11 | 3.2% | 54.6K | 44.3K | -2.5M |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | 102.9 | -0.2% | -0.9% | 4.3M | -4.5% | -7.7% | 225.8K | 5.2% | 0.99 | 96.2% | 24.7K | -4.0K | 7.0K |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | 106.3 | -0.5% | -1.9% | 6.2M | -1.0% | -5.3% | 718.7K | 11.7% | 1.85 | 97.4% | -19.5K | -25.1K | 350.3K |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | Rates / Funding | 2026-07-21 | 108.6 | -0.7% | -2.4% | 5.3M | 0.0% | 1.1% | 472.4K | 9.0% | 1.89 | 100.0% | 39.6K | 17.0K | 312.3K |
Trader Category Split
Use this to see whether the move is asset-manager led, leveraged-money led, retail-supported, or being absorbed by commercials.
| Asset | Asset Manager Net | Lev Money Net | Retail Net | Retail %OI | Commercial Net | Commercial 3Y %ile | Asset Mgr L/S | Lev Money L/S | Broad Spec Gross %OI | Institutional/HF Gross %OI |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S&P 500 | 929.2K | -322.9K | 123.7K | 6.4% | -732.9K | 31.4% | 5.33 | 0.31 | 107.1% | 101.8% |
| Nasdaq 100 | 72.6K | -74.7K | 7.5K | 2.6% | -5.7K | 95.5% | 3.27 | 0.38 | 111.9% | 106.0% |
| Russell 2000 | -890.0 | -73.5K | 9.7K | 2.4% | 72.1K | 94.9% | 0.99 | 0.43 | 124.4% | 121.9% |
| Natural Gas | n/a | -102.8K | 12.0K | 0.7% | -33.1K | 54.5% | n/a | 0.69 | 45.3% | 34.0% |
| Crude Oil | n/a | 64.0K | 26.9K | 1.4% | 383.4K | 98.7% | n/a | 1.52 | 28.9% | 16.7% |
| Gold | n/a | 124.8K | 29.3K | 7.6% | -19.3K | 91.7% | n/a | 8.49 | 69.3% | 41.3% |
| Silver | n/a | 11.3K | 17.0K | 16.0% | -13.0K | 98.7% | n/a | 2.63 | 47.0% | 23.6% |
| Copper | n/a | 71.5K | 8.1K | 3.0% | -91.2K | 12.2% | n/a | 5.28 | 52.6% | 38.9% |
| Bitcoin | 2.7K | -7.9K | -68.0 | -0.3% | 4.6K | 58.3% | 2.39 | 0.34 | 115.1% | 110.5% |
| US Dollar | 19.9K | -1.9K | 2.7K | 5.1% | -24.5K | 0.6% | 12.82 | 0.89 | 121.3% | 107.3% |
| Euro FX | 228.9K | -56.7K | 23.4K | 2.9% | -208.2K | 90.4% | 2.0 | 0.62 | 120.2% | 115.8% |
| Japanese Yen | -79.9K | -96.2K | -2.8K | -0.7% | 133.7K | 92.3% | 0.47 | 0.46 | 125.9% | 113.8% |
| VIX | -41.5K | 3.1K | 1.5K | 0.4% | 36.6K | 60.9% | 0.52 | 1.03 | 82.7% | 81.6% |
| SOFR-3M | -521.2K | -2.7M | 2.4K | 0.0% | 3.1M | 97.4% | 0.69 | 0.3 | 64.3% | 60.4% |
| 2-Year Treasury Notes | 1.8M | -1.6M | 66.8K | 1.5% | -463.7K | 4.5% | 4.1 | 0.18 | 136.4% | 122.4% |
| 5-Year Treasury Notes | 2.9M | -2.1M | 4.8K | 0.1% | -747.0K | 15.4% | 3.75 | 0.15 | 133.0% | 126.9% |
| 10-Year Treasury Notes | 2.5M | -2.1M | -10.4K | -0.2% | -516.6K | 1.3% | 4.46 | 0.16 | 138.3% | 129.6% |
| Positioning Setup | Cross-Check | Strategy Translation |
|---|---|---|
| Crowded long + strong breadth | Price trend, ETF health, and CFTC positioning all agree. | Maintain exposure, but avoid chasing if weekly breadth momentum fades. |
| Crowded long + weak breadth | Positioning is extended while internal confirmation deteriorates. | Reduce position size, tighten stops, or shift toward less crowded expressions. |
| Crowded short + improving breadth | Positioning is washed out while price/breadth repair begins. | Potential squeeze or early rotation candidate. |
| Neutral positioning + improving price | Price and breadth improve before the crowd has fully moved in. | Cleaner entry setup if rates/credit are not deteriorating. |
VAMS Signal
This page pulls the current VAMS flip tape directly into the strategist deck. It focuses on the fresh weekly buys and sells, then shows the individual price/VAMS chart and VAMS strategy backtest for each new buy first and each new sell underneath.
Current VAMS Tape
Volatility-adjusted momentum signal state across the ETF universe.
How To Use
Fresh buys are candidates where momentum has improved enough to flip into risk-on state. Fresh sells identify exposures where VAMS has moved into risk-withheld state. The backtest panel underneath each signal shows whether the model has historically improved the buy-and-hold profile for that specific ticker.
Source
Generated from the weekly VAMS Signal Chartdeck without embedding the whole HTML deck.
VAMS By PM Group
This translates the VAMS universe into the same PM groups used by the allocation and top-down pages, so fresh buys/sells can be read as regime evidence instead of isolated ticker flips.
| Group | ETFs | VAMS Buy Rate | Buy Signals | Sell Signals | Fresh Buys | Fresh Sells |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Metals / Miners | 2 | 100.0% | GDX, SIL | n/a | GDX, SIL | n/a |
| Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | 2 | 100.0% | ETH-USD, CL=F | n/a | n/a | n/a |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 4 | 75.0% | GLD, CPER, BTC-USD | SLV | GLD, CPER | n/a |
| Defensive Sectors | 4 | 75.0% | XLU, XLRE, XLV | XLP | XLU, XLV | XLP |
| Cyclical Sectors | 7 | 71.4% | XLF, XLE, XLI, XLB, XHB | XLY, XLC | XLI, XLB, XHB | n/a |
| International Equity | 9 | 33.3% | DAX, ARGT, EWZ | EWJ, INDA, EZU, EEM, KWEB, ACWX | DAX, ARGT | KWEB |
| Rates / Credit | 4 | 0.0% | n/a | SHY, TLT, LQD, HYG | n/a | SHY |
| Core Index Beta | 3 | 0.0% | n/a | SPY, QQQ, IWM | n/a | n/a |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 2 | 0.0% | n/a | KRE, IAK | n/a | KRE |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 2 | 0.0% | n/a | XLK, SMH | n/a | n/a |
| Style / Market Structure | 1 | 0.0% | n/a | VO | n/a | n/a |
| US Index / Size | 1 | 0.0% | n/a | DIA | n/a | n/a |
Fresh Signal Flip Tables
Fresh VAMS Buys
| Ticker | Name | Group | WoW Signal Change | Current Signal | Current VAMS | VAMS 5D Change | Signal Since | 5D Return | 1M Return | 3M Return | Signal Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLU | Utilities | US Sector | New Buy | Buy | 0.67 | 0.82 | 2026-07-25 | 3.0% | 1.2% | 2.1% | 8.06 |
| XLI | Industrials | US Sector | New Buy | Buy | 0.51 | 0.73 | 2026-07-23 | 2.5% | -0.7% | 6.3% | 6.32 |
| XLB | Materials | US Sector | New Buy | Buy | 0.48 | 0.66 | 2026-07-24 | 2.5% | -1.4% | 1.9% | 5.98 |
| GDX | Gold Miners | Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New Buy | Buy | 0.48 | 0.81 | 2026-07-21 | 6.3% | -4.1% | -11.5% | 5.97 |
| XLV | Healthcare | US Sector | New Buy | Buy | 0.40 | 0.27 | 2026-07-25 | 2.1% | -0.7% | 8.5% | 5.17 |
| SIL | Silver Miners | Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New Buy | Buy | 0.40 | 0.73 | 2026-07-21 | 5.6% | -5.9% | -14.4% | 5.13 |
| XHB | Homebuilders | Industries | New Buy | Buy | 0.28 | 0.60 | 2026-07-25 | 2.2% | -3.7% | 8.4% | 3.90 |
| GLD | Gold | Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New Buy | Buy | 0.19 | 0.38 | 2026-07-21 | 1.2% | -1.6% | -10.1% | 2.91 |
| DAX | Germany | International Equity | New Buy | Buy | 0.18 | 0.48 | 2026-07-22 | 0.8% | -2.6% | -2.8% | 2.89 |
| ARGT | Argentina | International Equity | New Buy | Buy | 0.06 | 0.37 | 2026-07-22 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 3.0% | 1.60 |
| CPER | Copper | Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New Buy | Buy | -0.01 | 0.06 | 2026-07-21 | -0.2% | 2.8% | -1.5% | 1.00 |
Fresh VAMS Sells
| Ticker | Name | Group | WoW Signal Change | Current Signal | Current VAMS | VAMS 5D Change | Signal Since | 5D Return | 1M Return | 3M Return | Signal Strength |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| KWEB | China Tech | International Equity | New Sell | Sell | -0.56 | -0.79 | 2026-07-24 | -4.2% | 5.2% | -2.3% | 6.89 |
| SHY | 1-3 Year Treasury Notes | Bonds / Credit | New Sell | Sell | -0.27 | -0.17 | 2026-07-23 | -0.1% | -0.1% | -0.3% | 3.75 |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | US Sector | New Sell | Sell | -0.18 | -0.53 | 2026-07-23 | -0.9% | -1.0% | -0.8% | 2.85 |
| KRE | Regional Banks | Industries | New Sell | Sell | -0.04 | -0.08 | 2026-07-21 | -0.2% | 0.9% | 9.2% | 1.35 |
Fresh Buy Individual Charts And Backtests
XLU - Utilities
US Sector | New BuyXLI - Industrials
US Sector | New BuyXLB - Materials
US Sector | New BuyGDX - Gold Miners
Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New BuyXLV - Healthcare
US Sector | New BuySIL - Silver Miners
Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New BuyXHB - Homebuilders
Industries | New BuyGLD - Gold
Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New BuyDAX - Germany
International Equity | New BuyARGT - Argentina
International Equity | New BuyCPER - Copper
Metals / Miners / Crypto / Oil | New BuyFresh Sell Individual Charts And Backtests
KWEB - China Tech
International Equity | New SellSHY - 1-3 Year Treasury Notes
Bonds / Credit | New SellXLP - Consumer Staples
US Sector | New SellKRE - Regional Banks
Industries | New SellOptions Intelligence
This page pulls the current Options Intelligence deck into the strategist workflow without embedding the full source deck. It is the validation-aware risk-transfer layer: it asks whether raw options pressure is historically helpful or harmful, then uses calm tape, near-term path risk, protection demand, urgent hedge demand, IV pressure, gamma stability, and leadership call chase to size the decision.
Current Options Read
Risk-Transfer Drivers
PM Translation
Options pressure composite is 51.8 / 100 (Balanced options pressure); calm tape 58.0; near-term path risk 48.3; protection demand 52.4; urgent hedge demand 61.5; leadership call chase 75.9; gamma stability 70.1; IV pressure 51.7; macro-options transmission 36.4; pressure confirmation 53.5; allocation overlay +0.4.
Highest-confidence current reads: GOOGL, SMH, QQQ. Highest near-term movement-risk reads: AAPL, TSLA, SMH. Risk-control validation flags GLD, GOOGL, SLV, TLT; high options pressure is not automatically bullish for those tickers.
Options Gauge History Panels
Core options reads shown with SPY above each signal. This keeps the macro dashboard clean while preserving the richer visual context on the Options page.
Highest-Value Options Reads
These tables use the Options deck's validation-aware action fields. A high score is not automatically bullish; PM Action gives the portfolio translation, while Forward Return Evidence shows the actual historical median 20D/60D/120D returns for the current setup bucket when enough observations exist.
Options Driver Definitions
All component scores are 0-100 reads from the Options Intelligence deck. Higher is not always bullish. The primary allocation score is Options Pressure Composite; PM Action, Validation Read, and Forward Return Evidence decide whether that pressure has historically been favorable, unfavorable, contrarian, or only context for each symbol.
Full Options Summary
Model Allocation
A signal-driven model allocation based on optimized base weights, group scores, regime, financial-conditions risk budget, CFTC equity-crowding overlay, Options Intelligence risk-transfer overlay, and the full VAMS buy/sell universe plus fresh flip momentum overlay. It is a strategy translation layer, not a position-sizing recommendation. Price/breadth as of 2026-07-25; breadth metrics as of 2026-07-24; CFTC positioning as of 2026-07-21; VAMS as of 2026-07-25; Options as of 2026-07-24.
| Sleeve | Proxy | Role | View | Base Weight | Model Weight | Weight Delta | Signal | Positioning Overlay | VAMS Overlay | FCI Overlay | Options Overlay | Overlay | Adjusted Signal | Score Tilt | Regime Tilt | Rule Focus | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta | SPY / QQQ / IWM / RSP | Broad beta anchor | Underweight | 10.0% | 8.3% | -1.7% | 22.98 | 4.00 | 1.23 | -3.00 | 0.45 | 2.68 | 25.66 | -2.43 | -2.00 | Own when index breadth, VAMS, positioning, financial conditions, and validation-aware options setup are supportive. | Underweight: broad beta is usable but not fully confirmed; score 23.0 moves to 25.7 after VAMS, positioning, macro-conditions, and options overlays. |
| Style / Market Structure | IWF / IWD / VO / MAGS / XMAG | Style and size tilt | Overweight | 14.0% | 17.6% | 3.6% | 27.52 | 2.00 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.22 | 1.34 | 28.86 | -2.11 | 0.00 | Use to choose growth/value, mega-cap, mid-cap, and equal-weight expression. | Overweight: style and size leadership is one of the better internal reads; use it to choose the expression rather than lifting all beta. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | MTUM / QUAL / SPHB / SPLV / SPHD | Risk-quality factor tilt | Neutral | 3.0% | 2.7% | -0.3% | 39.17 | 0.00 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.22 | -0.66 | 38.51 | -1.15 | 0.00 | Separate quality momentum from low-quality beta chase. | Neutral: factor breadth is constructive, but the model still wants quality/momentum confirmation before treating high beta as durable. |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | XLK / SMH / AIQ / IGV basket | Long-duration equity leadership | Underweight | 7.0% | 1.5% | -5.5% | 3.56 | 1.20 | 1.23 | -1.50 | 0.45 | 1.38 | 4.94 | -4.00 | -2.00 | Own when tech breadth, VAMS, macro conditions, and options validation confirm; reduce when real-yield pressure, leadership call chase, or protection demand rises. | Underweight: tech leadership needs VAMS support and options validation discipline; score 3.6 keeps the sleeve selective unless financial conditions and forward-setup validation keep confirming. |
| Cyclical Sectors | XLY / XLC / XLE / XLF / XLI / XLB / XHB | Economic beta | Neutral | 14.0% | 13.7% | -0.3% | 23.16 | 1.20 | 0.62 | -3.00 | 0.31 | -0.87 | 22.29 | -2.77 | -2.00 | Add only when cyclicals broaden and credit/financial/options risk-transfer conditions do not deteriorate. | Neutral: cyclical breadth remains weak at 23.2; VAMS and financial conditions help, but economic-beta confirmation still needs to broaden. |
| Defensive Sectors | XLP / XLV / XLU / XLRE | Defense and ballast | Overweight | 14.0% | 18.1% | 4.1% | 31.68 | 0.00 | -0.37 | 0.90 | -0.13 | 0.40 | 32.07 | -1.79 | 0.00 | Raise when defensives lead for risk-control reasons, damage breadth rises, or financial/options conditions tighten. | Overweight: ballast remains above base because weaker cyclical, commodity, and speculative sleeves release weight; this is a risk-control allocation, not a claim that defensives are the primary leadership engine. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | PAVE / ITA / XTL / CARZ / XHB / ITB | Theme-level cyclical expression | Underweight | 7.4% | 4.4% | -3.0% | 26.28 | 0.00 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.18 | -0.71 | 25.57 | -2.44 | -2.00 | Use only where industry breadth confirms the broader cyclical read. | Underweight: industry themes have visible pockets of strength, but elevated damage breadth keeps the sleeve tactical rather than a broad cyclical add. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | ARKK / UFO / BJK / PEJ / PINK | High-beta tactical sleeve | Underweight | 1.0% | 0.0% | -1.0% | 9.17 | 0.00 | 0.86 | -1.50 | 0.40 | -0.24 | 8.93 | -4.00 | -2.00 | Size only when VAMS confirms, financial/options conditions are not hostile, and damage breadth is falling. | Underweight: speculative themes are improving tactically, but sizing stays controlled because this sleeve needs clean VAMS and lower damage. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | KRE / IAK / IHI / IHF / XBI | Industry-specific risk sleeve | Neutral | 2.0% | 1.6% | -0.4% | 41.13 | 0.00 | 0.37 | -0.90 | 0.22 | -0.31 | 40.82 | -0.92 | 0.00 | Use as a granular expression when broad sector labels hide dispersion. | Neutral: industry dispersion is poor and damage is high; treat any strength as stock/ETF-specific rather than a sleeve-level add. |
| International Equity | EEM / EZU / INDA / DXJ | Non-US equity risk | Underweight | 3.0% | 0.0% | -3.0% | 35.18 | 0.80 | 0.62 | -1.50 | 0.18 | 0.09 | 35.28 | -1.47 | -2.00 | Add when local breadth improves and dollar/liquidity/options backdrop is not hostile. | Underweight: non-US exposure has some VAMS repair, but the weak base score keeps the sleeve close to base until breadth improves. |
| Rates / Credit | AGG / LQD / IEF / TLT / HYG | Duration and credit governor | Overweight | 7.0% | 10.2% | 3.2% | 17.31 | 0.00 | 0.00 | 1.50 | 0.18 | 1.68 | 18.99 | -3.10 | 3.00 | Use to decide whether portfolio risk is being compensated. | Overweight: rates and credit remain a risk governor; signal 17.3 argues against reaching for credit or duration beta. |
| Metals / Miners | GDX / GDXJ / SIL / XME / COPX | Resource equity sleeve | Underweight | 1.0% | 0.0% | -1.0% | 14.40 | 0.00 | 0.37 | -0.60 | 0.13 | -0.10 | 14.30 | -3.57 | 0.00 | Own only when miner breadth confirms the commodity/real-asset read. | Underweight: resource equities are damaged internally; wait for miner breadth to confirm before using this as a real-asset sleeve. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | GLD / DBC / USO / BTC-USD / UUP | Macro hedge and real-asset sleeve | Overweight | 9.0% | 10.0% | 1.0% | 25.74 | 0.00 | 0.37 | 0.90 | 0.13 | 1.40 | 27.15 | -2.29 | 0.00 | Use for inflation, dollar, liquidity, and commodity pressure signals. | Overweight: macro hedge signals are weak and damage is elevated; keep commodity/crypto/USD exposure tactical only. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Cash / T-bills | Risk reserve | Overweight | 7.6% | 11.9% | 4.3% | 27.02 | -4.00 | -1.23 | 3.00 | -0.45 | -2.68 | 24.34 | -2.57 | 3.00 | Rises when broad beta is weak, damage is elevated, financial conditions tighten, options validation turns risk-control, or overlays turn negative. | Overweight: cash rises only when breadth weakens or VAMS, positioning, financial conditions, and options validation stop supporting selected risk exposure. |
Interpretation: Base Weight is the backtested production anchor. Signal is the base group score after breadth, price returns, trend, damage, and ETF-deck z-score extension/repair overlay. Positioning, VAMS, FCI, and Options overlays adjust the signal where each input is relevant to the sleeve. Adjusted Signal drives Score Tilt; Regime Tilt then applies the current top-down regime before final model weights are normalized. View is now based on final Model Weight versus Base Weight using a 0.75 percentage-point materiality band, so the label reconciles with the displayed allocation. The sleeves are intentionally broad enough to frame a portfolio, but detailed enough that style, factor, thematic, sector, industry, international, rates/credit, metals, commodities, and cash decisions do not collapse into the same repeated message.
Top-Down Map
Starts with broad indexes, then sectors, then industry/theme groups. This is the decision path: first decide market beta, then sector exposure, then the smaller expressions.
Group Heatmap Table
This replaces the old single-scale chart heatmap. Each column is colored in a way that fits the metric, so returns, breadth scores, and damage can be read together without distorting the colors.
| Group | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Leadership | Damage | >50DMA | >200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 0.6% | -0.7% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 75.50 | 1.35 | 80.0% | 64.7% | 9.2% | 90.0% | 80.0% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 0.8% | -1.2% | 2.4% | 16.2% | 17.7% | 71.03 | 3.58 | 72.0% | 59.8% | 2.0% | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| International Equity | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 64.55 | 0.31 | 62.5% | 57.0% | 9.1% | 62.5% | 62.5% |
| Defensive Sectors | 1.5% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 45.71 | -5.52 | 70.1% | 15.8% | 9.1% | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Style / Market Structure | -0.9% | -1.3% | -0.5% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 57.94 | -5.19 | 53.3% | 47.8% | 1.2% | 33.3% | 83.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 0.9% | 1.1% | -0.9% | 7.7% | 20.3% | 53.51 | 2.21 | 46.2% | 53.0% | 23.4% | 37.5% | 56.2% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 1.6% | 3.5% | -8.2% | -1.7% | 12.4% | 51.72 | 4.29 | 51.7% | 51.3% | 47.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 0.3% | -0.3% | 1.6% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 39.60 | -3.18 | 60.4% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 57.1% | 71.4% |
| Core Index Beta | -0.7% | -1.6% | -1.1% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 48.81 | -5.98 | 50.5% | 33.8% | 6.1% | 16.7% | 100.0% |
| Rates / Credit | -0.5% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 43.14 | -6.84 | 21.4% | 46.2% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 35.7% |
| Metals / Miners | 4.3% | -0.8% | -8.3% | -1.3% | 12.7% | 39.23 | 16.11 | 28.0% | 52.8% | 63.3% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | -0.1% | -7.4% | -6.1% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 43.42 | -3.36 | 40.0% | 38.2% | 32.3% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | -2.2% | -5.1% | -4.0% | 21.8% | 15.2% | 33.60 | -9.17 | 32.6% | 21.9% | 26.3% | 16.7% | 66.7% |
PM Action Map
Same groups, translated into action language. The table also shows the leading and lagging ETFs inside each group so the group read is not too broad to trade.
| Group | PM Action | Allocation View | Model Weight | Strategy Score | Health | Damage | VAMS Buy Rate | Options Pressure | Options Path Risk | Options Read | Leaders | Laggards | Rationale |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Hold / selective add | Neutral | 1.6% | 41.13 | 75.50 | 9.2% | 0.0% | 44.32 | 47.23 | Mixed options tape in KRE | IHE, IAK, IYG | IHI, PSP, XBI | Usable strength, but not enough confirmation for broad risk expansion. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Overweight / risk reserve | Overweight | 11.9% | 27.02 | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | n/a | n/a | Cash is included in the 100% model normalization. It rises when broad beta weakens, damage broadens, financial conditions tighten, or VAMS/positioning overlays stop supporting selected risk exposure. |
| Metals / Miners | Underweight / avoid chase | Underweight | 0.0% | 14.40 | 39.23 | 63.3% | 100.0% | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | GSG, HAP, WOOD | URNM, SILJ, SIL | Damage breadth is elevated; require repair before adding. |
| Cyclical Sectors | Underweight / reduce | Neutral | 13.7% | 23.16 | 39.60 | 15.3% | 71.4% | 49.32 | 48.97 | Mixed options tape in XLB, XLE, XLC | XLE, XLF, XLI | XLC, XLY, XHB | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Core Index Beta | Underweight / reduce | Underweight | 8.3% | 22.98 | 48.81 | 6.1% | 0.0% | 52.23 | 48.32 | Mixed options tape in QQQ, DIA, IWM | RSP, IWM, OEF | QQQ, SPY, XLG | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Rates / Credit | Underweight / reduce | Overweight | 10.2% | 17.31 | 43.14 | 0.0% | 0.0% | 34.66 | 32.66 | Risk-control validation in TLT | BKLN, SHY, STIP | TLT, LQD, PFF | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Underweight / reduce | Underweight | 0.0% | 9.17 | 43.42 | 32.3% | n/a | 74.61 | 76.72 | Validated options pressure in TSLA | PINK, PEJ, UFO | UFO, PEJ, PINK | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Underweight / reduce | Underweight | 1.5% | 3.56 | 33.60 | 26.3% | 0.0% | 67.84 | 63.18 | Risk-control validation in GOOGL | BUG, CLOU, NXTG | IGV, ARKK, SMH | Low strategy score and weak participation. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Neutral | 2.7% | 39.17 | 71.03 | 2.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | SPHD, SPLV, QUAL | SPHB, MTUM, QUAL | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| International Equity | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Underweight | 0.0% | 35.18 | 64.55 | 9.1% | 33.3% | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | DXJ, EWU, EWA | INDA, EEM, EZU | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Defensive Sectors | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Overweight | 18.1% | 31.68 | 45.71 | 9.1% | 75.0% | 53.62 | 52.13 | Risk-control validation in XLV, XLP, XLU | XLU, XLRE, XLV | XLP, XLV, XLRE | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Style / Market Structure | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Overweight | 17.6% | 27.52 | 57.94 | 1.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | VO, IWD, XMAG | MAGS, IWF, SPXT | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Underweight | 4.4% | 26.28 | 53.51 | 23.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | No direct options read | CRAK, PAVE, XOP | HERO, SOCL, NUKZ | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Watchlist / wait for confirmation | Overweight | 10.0% | 25.74 | 51.72 | 47.0% | 75.0% | 52.83 | 51.42 | Risk-control validation in UUP, GLD, SLV | DBC, USO, DBA | PALL, PLTM, URA | Mixed signal; needs breadth or VAMS improvement. |
Group Summary
| Group | ETFs | Strategy Score | Health | Health_1W_Chg | Return_1W | Return_1M | Return_3M | Trend_Breadth | Damage_Breadth | Return_Z | MA_Dev_Z | ZScore_Overlay | Extended_ETFs | Washed_Out_ETFs | Above_50DMA | Above_200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 10 | 41.13 | 75.50 | 1.35 | 0.6% | -0.7% | 8.1% | 80.0% | 9.2% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 90.0% | 80.0% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 5 | 39.17 | 71.03 | 3.58 | 0.8% | -1.2% | 2.4% | 72.0% | 2.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| International Equity | 8 | 35.18 | 64.55 | 0.31 | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 62.5% | 9.1% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 62.5% | 62.5% |
| Defensive Sectors | 4 | 31.68 | 45.71 | -5.52 | 1.5% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 70.1% | 9.1% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Style / Market Structure | 6 | 27.52 | 57.94 | -5.19 | -0.9% | -1.3% | -0.5% | 53.3% | 1.2% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 83.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 16 | 26.28 | 53.51 | 2.21 | 0.9% | 1.1% | -0.9% | 46.2% | 23.4% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 37.5% | 56.2% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 12 | 25.74 | 51.72 | 4.29 | 1.6% | 3.5% | -8.2% | 51.7% | 47.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 7 | 23.16 | 39.60 | -3.18 | 0.3% | -0.3% | 1.6% | 60.4% | 15.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 57.1% | 71.4% |
| Core Index Beta | 6 | 22.98 | 48.81 | -5.98 | -0.7% | -1.6% | -1.1% | 50.5% | 6.1% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 16.7% | 100.0% |
| Rates / Credit | 14 | 17.31 | 43.14 | -6.84 | -0.5% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 21.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 14.3% | 35.7% |
| Metals / Miners | 10 | 14.40 | 39.23 | 16.11 | 4.3% | -0.8% | -8.3% | 28.0% | 63.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | 3 | 9.17 | 43.42 | -3.36 | -0.1% | -7.4% | -6.1% | 40.0% | 32.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | 12 | 3.56 | 33.60 | -9.17 | -2.2% | -5.1% | -4.0% | 32.6% | 26.3% | n/a | n/a | 0.00 | 0 | 0 | 16.7% | 66.7% |
Core Index Beta
| Ticker | Name | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Damage Breadth | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY | S&P 500 | Breadth | 40.87 | -2.72 | -0.4% | -0.8% | -0.6% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 61.7% | 14.4% | False | True |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Breadth | 28.14 | -4.48 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -4.5% | 17.8% | 12.8% | 41.5% | 22.2% | False | True |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | Price proxy | 52.71 | -5.49 | -0.4% | -2.2% | 2.4% | 20.5% | 23.5% | 40.0% | 0.0% | False | True |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | Price proxy | 76.84 | 1.59 | 0.5% | -0.6% | 3.8% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 80.0% | 0.0% | True | True |
| OEF | S&P 100 | Price proxy | 48.81 | -11.50 | -1.0% | -0.8% | -1.9% | 14.6% | 8.0% | 40.0% | 0.0% | False | True |
| XLG | S&P Top 50 | Price proxy | 45.51 | -13.27 | -1.2% | -1.2% | -5.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 40.0% | 0.0% | False | True |
Sectors And Key Industry Proxies
| Ticker | Name | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK | Technology | Breadth | 26.90 | -0.18 | 0.1% | -2.6% | -2.4% | 30.3% | 22.6% | 39.2% | 1.8% | 25.7% | False | True |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | Breadth | 30.74 | -1.99 | -4.5% | -6.6% | -8.0% | 2.0% | -4.7% | 42.6% | 2.1% | 19.9% | False | False |
| XLC | Communication Services | Breadth | 24.46 | -9.70 | -4.1% | -3.0% | -7.7% | -4.7% | -3.7% | 29.0% | 2.9% | 30.4% | False | False |
| XLE | Energy | Breadth | 55.95 | 2.29 | 2.9% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 32.5% | 87.3% | 19.0% | 7.9% | True | True |
| XLF | Financials | Breadth | 52.92 | -6.68 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 8.7% | 77.2% | 19.3% | 9.2% | True | True |
| XLI | Industrials | Breadth | 42.58 | 2.43 | 2.5% | -0.7% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 21.2% | 67.9% | 17.7% | 12.8% | True | True |
| XLB | Materials | Breadth | 38.09 | -0.54 | 2.5% | -1.4% | 2.3% | 10.0% | 19.7% | 60.3% | 7.7% | 11.5% | True | True |
| XHB | Homebuilders | Breadth | 32.44 | -8.07 | 2.2% | -3.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 5.6% | 58.6% | 3.0% | 15.2% | False | True |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | Breadth | 36.97 | -12.17 | -0.9% | -1.0% | -0.1% | 4.8% | 11.1% | 56.9% | 6.9% | 12.7% | False | True |
| XLV | Health Care | Breadth | 43.14 | -7.81 | 2.1% | -0.7% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 65.5% | 11.3% | 13.0% | True | True |
| XLU | Utilities | Breadth | 54.01 | 2.55 | 3.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 86.0% | 22.6% | 3.2% | True | True |
| XLRE | Real Estate | Breadth | 48.72 | -4.67 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 72.0% | 22.6% | 7.5% | True | True |
Non-Sector Industries And Themes
| Ticker | Name | Group | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IHE | Pharmaceuticals | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 95.63 | 15.75 | 3.6% | 1.4% | 12.2% | 22.3% | 29.2% | 100.0% | 89.1% | 0.0% |
| CRAK | Oil Refiners | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 93.75 | 1.95 | 0.6% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 36.3% | 100.0% | 84.4% | 0.0% |
| PAVE | Infrastructure | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 92.68 | 16.11 | 3.6% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 17.9% | 23.8% | 100.0% | 81.7% | 0.0% |
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 92.45 | 11.50 | 2.4% | 12.6% | 1.7% | -0.9% | 32.0% | 100.0% | 81.1% | 0.0% |
| IAK | Insurance | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 90.91 | 6.90 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 13.4% | 100.0% | 77.3% | 0.0% |
| IYG | Financial Services | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 88.91 | 0.53 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 100.0% | 72.3% | 0.0% |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 88.80 | 16.81 | 4.1% | 10.2% | -3.4% | -5.3% | 22.8% | 100.0% | 73.2% | 3.1% |
| KRE | Regional Banks | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 87.61 | -4.07 | -0.2% | 0.9% | 9.8% | 21.5% | 26.6% | 100.0% | 69.0% | 0.0% |
| IAI | Broker-Dealers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 85.72 | -6.19 | -0.4% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 14.5% | 8.9% | 100.0% | 64.3% | 0.0% |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 78.85 | 18.23 | 4.7% | -3.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 80.0% | 69.6% | 0.0% |
| IHF | Health Care Providers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 76.13 | -1.24 | 0.1% | -1.8% | 11.6% | 33.4% | 19.4% | 80.0% | 62.8% | 0.0% |
| IBB | Biotech Large Cap | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 75.19 | 5.49 | 0.9% | -3.9% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 80.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% |
| PINK | Health Care Leaders | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 73.30 | 6.19 | 1.1% | -3.9% | 4.9% | 18.4% | 7.9% | 80.0% | 55.8% | 0.0% |
| XBI | Biotech | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 70.94 | -4.42 | -0.3% | -6.2% | 14.4% | 25.2% | 32.6% | 80.0% | 49.9% | 0.0% |
| BUG | Cybersecurity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 66.34 | -19.65 | -6.4% | -3.9% | 10.0% | 46.9% | 15.9% | 80.0% | 38.3% | 0.0% |
| CLOU | Cloud Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 65.76 | -18.58 | -5.1% | -0.6% | 0.9% | 17.3% | -0.7% | 80.0% | 43.1% | 16.4% |
| OIH | Oil Services | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 65.19 | 17.88 | 4.4% | 8.9% | -11.8% | 1.2% | 38.7% | 60.0% | 66.4% | 22.4% |
| PSP | Private Equity | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 64.09 | 9.73 | 1.7% | 2.5% | -1.6% | 8.5% | -6.0% | 60.0% | 66.4% | 29.7% |
| XTN | Transportation | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 52.00 | -15.04 | -1.6% | -2.0% | 7.1% | 29.2% | 37.3% | 40.0% | 47.5% | 0.0% |
| PEJ | Leisure & Entertainment | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 50.82 | -12.57 | -1.1% | -3.3% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 0.0% |
| NXTG | Next-Gen Connectivity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 49.03 | 5.84 | 1.0% | -2.0% | -2.9% | 31.5% | 37.9% | 40.0% | 47.2% | 19.0% |
| JETS | Airlines | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 47.99 | -14.69 | -1.6% | -9.3% | 10.9% | 24.9% | 22.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | 0.0% |
| GRID | Smart Grid Infrastructure | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 44.68 | -0.53 | 0.2% | -3.7% | -7.5% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 40.0% | 31.3% | 5.5% |
| COAL | Coal | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 43.48 | 8.67 | 1.5% | 4.2% | -3.8% | -12.5% | 9.2% | 20.0% | 63.7% | 40.0% |
| XES | Oil & Gas Equipment | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 42.34 | 9.03 | 1.5% | 6.0% | -12.5% | 0.2% | 42.9% | 20.0% | 57.8% | 31.9% |
| XTL | Telecom | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 35.37 | -9.38 | -0.7% | -4.0% | -10.9% | 12.8% | 48.0% | 40.0% | 19.5% | 36.1% |
| ITB | Home Construction | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 34.47 | 10.09 | 1.8% | -5.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 58.4% | 26.0% |
| AIQ | Artificial Intelligence | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 31.86 | -16.11 | -2.0% | -6.3% | -7.7% | 22.4% | 15.7% | 40.0% | 13.6% | 43.8% |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 31.69 | -12.92 | -1.1% | -10.0% | -8.9% | 29.4% | 31.5% | 40.0% | 12.7% | 42.6% |
| CARZ | Global Autos | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 29.92 | -15.40 | -1.7% | -7.9% | -11.2% | 27.0% | 35.9% | 40.0% | 9.4% | 45.7% |
| NUKZ | Nuclear Energy | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 26.72 | 14.34 | 3.0% | -3.5% | -9.2% | -2.2% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 42.5% | 35.2% |
| ROBO | Robotics & Automation | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 21.98 | 3.01 | 0.7% | -6.7% | -10.8% | 14.2% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 23.5% |
| PNQI | Internet | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 19.95 | -17.88 | -4.6% | -2.3% | -3.7% | 2.7% | -13.2% | 0.0% | 24.8% | 33.1% |
| IHI | Medical Devices | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 19.88 | -9.03 | -0.7% | -3.2% | -0.5% | -7.6% | -19.1% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 62.7% |
| SMH | Semiconductors | Growth / Tech Leadership | Breadth | 17.41 | 3.05 | 0.4% | -5.3% | -2.6% | 45.9% | 63.2% | 32.0% | 0.0% | 26.7% |
| SOCL | Social Media | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 16.90 | -18.23 | -4.7% | -2.4% | -0.2% | 0.0% | -19.1% | 0.0% | 32.2% | 73.1% |
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 15.78 | -17.17 | -4.1% | -11.5% | -5.9% | 4.0% | -6.5% | 0.0% | 11.2% | 24.7% |
| HERO | Video Games & Esports | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 15.29 | -16.46 | -2.4% | -3.1% | -3.7% | -3.1% | -21.3% | 0.0% | 23.9% | 61.8% |
| IGV | Software | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 11.79 | -18.94 | -5.4% | -6.0% | -6.4% | 6.0% | -18.1% | 0.0% | 12.7% | 55.2% |
| UFO | Space Economy | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 6.13 | -3.72 | -0.2% | -15.2% | -30.5% | -5.2% | 28.8% | 0.0% | 14.2% | 96.9% |
Charts
Visual packet for weekly review: breadth health, weekly return leadership, weekly breadth change, signal heatmap, and breadth-versus-return cross-section.
Group Heatmap Table
Column-aware coloring: returns are centered around zero, breadth/health use higher-is-better, and damage uses lower-is-better.
| Group | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Leadership | Damage | >50DMA | >200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Financial / Health Care Industries | 0.6% | -0.7% | 8.1% | 16.7% | 12.8% | 75.50 | 1.35 | 80.0% | 64.7% | 9.2% | 90.0% | 80.0% |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | 0.8% | -1.2% | 2.4% | 16.2% | 17.7% | 71.03 | 3.58 | 72.0% | 59.8% | 2.0% | 60.0% | 100.0% |
| International Equity | 0.5% | 0.9% | 0.3% | 8.5% | 9.2% | 64.55 | 0.31 | 62.5% | 57.0% | 9.1% | 62.5% | 62.5% |
| Defensive Sectors | 1.5% | 0.6% | 3.9% | 9.4% | 10.3% | 45.71 | -5.52 | 70.1% | 15.8% | 9.1% | 75.0% | 100.0% |
| Style / Market Structure | -0.9% | -1.3% | -0.5% | 12.3% | 9.8% | 57.94 | -5.19 | 53.3% | 47.8% | 1.2% | 33.3% | 83.3% |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | 0.9% | 1.1% | -0.9% | 7.7% | 20.3% | 53.51 | 2.21 | 46.2% | 53.0% | 23.4% | 37.5% | 56.2% |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | 1.6% | 3.5% | -8.2% | -1.7% | 12.4% | 51.72 | 4.29 | 51.7% | 51.3% | 47.0% | 50.0% | 50.0% |
| Cyclical Sectors | 0.3% | -0.3% | 1.6% | 7.4% | 11.3% | 39.60 | -3.18 | 60.4% | 10.3% | 15.3% | 57.1% | 71.4% |
| Core Index Beta | -0.7% | -1.6% | -1.1% | 15.1% | 12.2% | 48.81 | -5.98 | 50.5% | 33.8% | 6.1% | 16.7% | 100.0% |
| Rates / Credit | -0.5% | -1.1% | -0.6% | 1.7% | 1.8% | 43.14 | -6.84 | 21.4% | 46.2% | 0.0% | 14.3% | 35.7% |
| Metals / Miners | 4.3% | -0.8% | -8.3% | -1.3% | 12.7% | 39.23 | 16.11 | 28.0% | 52.8% | 63.3% | 30.0% | 20.0% |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | -0.1% | -7.4% | -6.1% | 9.2% | 16.5% | 43.42 | -3.36 | 40.0% | 38.2% | 32.3% | 33.3% | 66.7% |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | -2.2% | -5.1% | -4.0% | 21.8% | 15.2% | 33.60 | -9.17 | 32.6% | 21.9% | 26.3% | 16.7% | 66.7% |
ETF Signal Heatmap Table
| ETF | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Health | Health Chg | Trend | Leadership | Damage | Ext Z | 50DMA Z |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IHE | 3.6% | 1.4% | 12.2% | 22.3% | 29.2% | 95.63 | 15.75 | 100.0% | 89.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| CRAK | 0.6% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 36.3% | 93.75 | 1.95 | 100.0% | 84.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| PAVE | 3.6% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 17.9% | 23.8% | 92.68 | 16.11 | 100.0% | 81.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| XOP | 2.4% | 12.6% | 1.7% | -0.9% | 32.0% | 92.45 | 11.50 | 100.0% | 81.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| DXJ | 2.9% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 17.6% | 28.4% | 92.09 | 12.92 | 100.0% | 80.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| GSG | 3.6% | 15.5% | -1.4% | 3.3% | 40.9% | 91.03 | 16.46 | 100.0% | 77.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IAK | 1.2% | 0.6% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 13.4% | 90.91 | 6.90 | 100.0% | 77.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| DBC | 3.3% | 13.3% | -1.4% | 4.0% | 35.5% | 90.68 | 15.40 | 100.0% | 76.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| USO | 8.9% | 31.5% | -3.0% | 12.6% | 91.5% | 90.65 | 20.00 | 100.0% | 78.2% | 4.1% | n/a | n/a |
| SPHD | 0.7% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 90.09 | 4.42 | 100.0% | 75.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| DBA | 0.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 12.1% | 89.97 | 4.78 | 100.0% | 74.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| SPLV | 1.4% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 89.50 | 8.32 | 100.0% | 73.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IYG | 0.5% | 1.2% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 88.91 | 0.53 | 100.0% | 72.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| FCG | 4.1% | 10.2% | -3.4% | -5.3% | 22.8% | 88.80 | 16.81 | 100.0% | 73.2% | 3.1% | n/a | n/a |
| HAP | 2.9% | 3.1% | -1.5% | 4.4% | 23.9% | 88.44 | 13.63 | 100.0% | 71.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| EWU | 1.8% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 88.44 | 10.44 | 100.0% | 71.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| EWA | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 6.7% | 14.1% | 87.73 | 3.72 | 100.0% | 69.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| KRE | -0.2% | 0.9% | 9.8% | 21.5% | 26.6% | 87.61 | -4.07 | 100.0% | 69.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| VO | 0.8% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 87.37 | 5.13 | 100.0% | 68.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IWD | 0.5% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 87.26 | 1.24 | 100.0% | 68.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| UUP | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 87.14 | 2.65 | 100.0% | 67.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IAI | -0.4% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 14.5% | 8.9% | 85.72 | -6.19 | 100.0% | 64.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| BKLN | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 83.78 | -1.77 | 100.0% | 59.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| CPER | -0.2% | 2.8% | -1.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 82.65 | -3.36 | 100.0% | 56.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| ITA | 4.7% | -3.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 78.85 | 18.23 | 80.0% | 69.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| RSP | 0.5% | -0.6% | 3.8% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 76.84 | 1.59 | 80.0% | 64.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IHF | 0.1% | -1.8% | 11.6% | 33.4% | 19.4% | 76.13 | -1.24 | 80.0% | 62.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| IBB | 0.9% | -3.9% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 75.19 | 5.49 | 80.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| QUAL | -0.1% | -0.7% | 1.3% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 73.77 | -2.30 | 80.0% | 56.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| PINK | 1.1% | -3.9% | 4.9% | 18.4% | 7.9% | 73.30 | 6.19 | 80.0% | 55.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| SHY | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 73.30 | -2.65 | 80.0% | 55.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| XBI | -0.3% | -6.2% | 14.4% | 25.2% | 32.6% | 70.94 | -4.42 | 80.0% | 49.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| WOOD | 1.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 69.79 | 7.96 | 60.0% | 81.1% | 31.0% | n/a | n/a |
| BUG | -6.4% | -3.9% | 10.0% | 46.9% | 15.9% | 66.34 | -19.65 | 80.0% | 38.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| CLOU | -5.1% | -0.6% | 0.9% | 17.3% | -0.7% | 65.76 | -18.58 | 80.0% | 43.1% | 16.4% | n/a | n/a |
| OIH | 4.4% | 8.9% | -11.8% | 1.2% | 38.7% | 65.19 | 17.88 | 60.0% | 66.4% | 22.4% | n/a | n/a |
| DBB | 0.7% | 3.0% | -4.7% | 10.5% | 17.5% | 65.01 | 3.36 | 60.0% | 57.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| EWZ | 0.7% | 3.8% | -0.8% | 2.9% | 12.5% | 64.89 | 4.07 | 60.0% | 65.2% | 21.2% | n/a | n/a |
| PSP | 1.7% | 2.5% | -1.6% | 8.5% | -6.0% | 64.09 | 9.73 | 60.0% | 66.4% | 29.7% | n/a | n/a |
| XMAG | 1.2% | -1.2% | 2.8% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 58.72 | 7.26 | 40.0% | 64.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| FXI | -1.3% | 8.4% | -1.9% | -0.9% | -12.2% | 57.64 | -13.63 | 60.0% | 49.6% | 27.9% | n/a | n/a |
| XLE | 2.9% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 32.5% | 55.95 | 2.29 | 87.3% | 19.0% | 7.9% | n/a | n/a |
| EZU | 0.7% | -1.9% | 1.7% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 55.18 | 2.30 | 40.0% | 55.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| STIP | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 55.06 | -3.01 | 40.0% | 55.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a |
| XLU | 3.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 54.01 | 2.55 | 86.0% | 22.6% | 3.2% | n/a | n/a |
Group Scatter Panels
Same framework as the all-ETF scatter, split by group so the outliers and clusters are readable. Marker size reflects trend breadth; color reflects damage breadth.
Signal Details
Tables generated directly from prices.csv and the breadth metric files in the Breadth folder.
ETF Z-Score Extension And Repair Map
These tables come from the ETF macro technical deck. Z-scores are measured relative to each ETF's own history, so they help separate healthy leadership from chase risk and identify potential repair candidates.
Most Extended Versus Own History
| ETF | Name | Group | Ext Z | 60D Ret Z | 50DMA Z | State |
|---|
Washed-Out / Below-Norm ETFs
| ETF | Name | Group | Ext Z | 60D Ret Z | 50DMA Z | State |
|---|
Relative Strength Z-Score Leaders
| ETF | Name | Group | RS Z | Ext Z | Health | Health Chg |
|---|
Potential Repair Candidates
Detailed Signal Matrix
| Ticker | Name | Group | Health Source | Health Score | Health 1W Change | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth | Extension Z | 60D Return Z | 50DMA Dev Z | Stretch State | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IHE | Pharmaceuticals | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 95.63 | 15.75 | 3.6% | 1.4% | 12.2% | 22.3% | 29.2% | 100.0% | 89.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| CRAK | Oil Refiners | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 93.75 | 1.95 | 0.6% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 36.3% | 100.0% | 84.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| PAVE | Infrastructure | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 92.68 | 16.11 | 3.6% | 0.9% | 5.2% | 17.9% | 23.8% | 100.0% | 81.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 92.45 | 11.50 | 2.4% | 12.6% | 1.7% | -0.9% | 32.0% | 100.0% | 81.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| DXJ | Japan Hedged Equity | International Equity | Price proxy | 92.09 | 12.92 | 2.9% | 1.3% | 5.1% | 17.6% | 28.4% | 100.0% | 80.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| GSG | Broad Commodities | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 91.03 | 16.46 | 3.6% | 15.5% | -1.4% | 3.3% | 40.9% | 100.0% | 77.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IAK | Insurance | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 90.91 | 6.90 | 1.2% | 0.6% | 10.8% | 16.9% | 13.4% | 100.0% | 77.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| DBC | Broad Commodities | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 90.68 | 15.40 | 3.3% | 13.3% | -1.4% | 4.0% | 35.5% | 100.0% | 76.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| USO | Oil | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 90.65 | 20.00 | 8.9% | 31.5% | -3.0% | 12.6% | 91.5% | 100.0% | 78.2% | 4.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| SPHD | High Dividend Low Vol | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 90.09 | 4.42 | 0.7% | 1.7% | 5.5% | 10.7% | 13.8% | 100.0% | 75.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| DBA | Agriculture | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 89.97 | 4.78 | 0.8% | 5.6% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 12.1% | 100.0% | 74.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| SPLV | Low Volatility | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 89.50 | 8.32 | 1.4% | 0.8% | 4.6% | 7.7% | 9.0% | 100.0% | 73.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IYG | Financial Services | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 88.91 | 0.53 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 8.2% | 15.8% | 8.6% | 100.0% | 72.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 88.80 | 16.81 | 4.1% | 10.2% | -3.4% | -5.3% | 22.8% | 100.0% | 73.2% | 3.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| HAP | Natural Resources | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 88.44 | 13.63 | 2.9% | 3.1% | -1.5% | 4.4% | 23.9% | 100.0% | 71.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| EWU | United Kingdom | International Equity | Price proxy | 88.44 | 10.44 | 1.8% | 0.1% | 1.7% | 9.3% | 14.2% | 100.0% | 71.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| EWA | Australia | International Equity | Price proxy | 87.73 | 3.72 | 0.7% | 2.2% | 1.2% | 6.7% | 14.1% | 100.0% | 69.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| KRE | Regional Banks | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 87.61 | -4.07 | -0.2% | 0.9% | 9.8% | 21.5% | 26.6% | 100.0% | 69.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| VO | Mid-Cap Blend | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 87.37 | 5.13 | 0.8% | 0.0% | 3.5% | 13.8% | 13.5% | 100.0% | 68.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IWD | Russell 1000 Value | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 87.26 | 1.24 | 0.5% | 0.6% | 5.4% | 17.8% | 22.7% | 100.0% | 68.1% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| UUP | US Dollar | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 87.14 | 2.65 | 0.7% | 0.8% | 2.9% | 3.3% | 5.1% | 100.0% | 67.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IAI | Broker-Dealers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 85.72 | -6.19 | -0.4% | 1.4% | 4.2% | 14.5% | 8.9% | 100.0% | 64.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| BKLN | Senior Loans | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 83.78 | -1.77 | 0.0% | 0.7% | 0.6% | 2.1% | 2.0% | 100.0% | 59.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| CPER | Copper | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 82.65 | -3.36 | -0.2% | 2.8% | -1.5% | 18.5% | 22.4% | 100.0% | 56.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 78.85 | 18.23 | 4.7% | -3.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | 16.8% | 80.0% | 69.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| RSP | S&P 500 Equal Weight | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 76.84 | 1.59 | 0.5% | -0.6% | 3.8% | 13.0% | 15.4% | 80.0% | 64.6% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IHF | Health Care Providers | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 76.13 | -1.24 | 0.1% | -1.8% | 11.6% | 33.4% | 19.4% | 80.0% | 62.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IBB | Biotech Large Cap | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 75.19 | 5.49 | 0.9% | -3.9% | 11.5% | 16.4% | 14.8% | 80.0% | 60.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| QUAL | Quality Factor | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 73.77 | -2.30 | -0.1% | -0.7% | 1.3% | 13.2% | 12.3% | 80.0% | 56.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| PINK | Health Care Leaders | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 73.30 | 6.19 | 1.1% | -3.9% | 4.9% | 18.4% | 7.9% | 80.0% | 55.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| SHY | 1-3 Year Treasury | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 73.30 | -2.65 | -0.1% | -0.1% | 0.3% | 0.6% | 1.2% | 80.0% | 55.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| XBI | Biotech | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 70.94 | -4.42 | -0.3% | -6.2% | 14.4% | 25.2% | 32.6% | 80.0% | 49.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| WOOD | Timber & Forestry | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 69.79 | 7.96 | 1.3% | 3.9% | 6.5% | 4.7% | 2.0% | 60.0% | 81.1% | 31.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | False |
| BUG | Cybersecurity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 66.34 | -19.65 | -6.4% | -3.9% | 10.0% | 46.9% | 15.9% | 80.0% | 38.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| CLOU | Cloud Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 65.76 | -18.58 | -5.1% | -0.6% | 0.9% | 17.3% | -0.7% | 80.0% | 43.1% | 16.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| OIH | Oil Services | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 65.19 | 17.88 | 4.4% | 8.9% | -11.8% | 1.2% | 38.7% | 60.0% | 66.4% | 22.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | False |
| DBB | Base Metals | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 65.01 | 3.36 | 0.7% | 3.0% | -4.7% | 10.5% | 17.5% | 60.0% | 57.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| EWZ | Brazil | International Equity | Price proxy | 64.89 | 4.07 | 0.7% | 3.8% | -0.8% | 2.9% | 12.5% | 60.0% | 65.2% | 21.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | False |
| PSP | Private Equity | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 64.09 | 9.73 | 1.7% | 2.5% | -1.6% | 8.5% | -6.0% | 60.0% | 66.4% | 29.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | False |
| XMAG | Ex-Magnificent 7 | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 58.72 | 7.26 | 1.2% | -1.2% | 2.8% | 15.2% | 15.2% | 40.0% | 64.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| FXI | China Large Cap | International Equity | Price proxy | 57.64 | -13.63 | -1.3% | 8.4% | -1.9% | -0.9% | -12.2% | 60.0% | 49.6% | 27.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | False |
| XLE | Energy | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 55.95 | 2.29 | 2.9% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 32.5% | 87.3% | 19.0% | 7.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| EZU | Eurozone | International Equity | Price proxy | 55.18 | 2.30 | 0.7% | -1.9% | 1.7% | 14.9% | 11.2% | 40.0% | 55.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| STIP | Short-Term TIPS | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 55.06 | -3.01 | -0.2% | 0.0% | 0.0% | 0.7% | 1.9% | 40.0% | 55.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLU | Utilities | Defensive Sectors | Breadth | 54.01 | 2.55 | 3.0% | 1.2% | 2.7% | 5.1% | 6.5% | 86.0% | 22.6% | 3.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| MTUM | Momentum Factor | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 53.21 | 7.61 | 1.2% | -3.2% | 1.0% | 27.0% | 25.1% | 40.0% | 54.3% | 10.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| HYG | High Yield Credit | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 53.18 | -8.32 | -0.6% | -0.6% | 0.1% | 2.4% | 2.7% | 40.0% | 50.4% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLF | Financials | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 52.92 | -6.68 | 0.5% | 1.2% | 8.8% | 15.7% | 8.7% | 77.2% | 19.3% | 9.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| IWM | Russell 2000 | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 52.71 | -5.49 | -0.4% | -2.2% | 2.4% | 20.5% | 23.5% | 40.0% | 49.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XTN | Transportation | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 52.00 | -15.04 | -1.6% | -2.0% | 7.1% | 29.2% | 37.3% | 40.0% | 47.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| PEJ | Leisure & Entertainment | Thematic / Speculative Growth | Price proxy | 50.82 | -12.57 | -1.1% | -3.3% | 7.4% | 14.5% | 12.8% | 40.0% | 44.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| SPXT | S&P 500 Ex-Technology | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 50.46 | -11.15 | -1.0% | -1.4% | 0.3% | 8.3% | 8.6% | 40.0% | 43.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| NXTG | Next-Gen Connectivity | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 49.03 | 5.84 | 1.0% | -2.0% | -2.9% | 31.5% | 37.9% | 40.0% | 47.2% | 19.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| OEF | S&P 100 | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 48.81 | -11.50 | -1.0% | -0.8% | -1.9% | 14.6% | 8.0% | 40.0% | 39.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLRE | Real Estate | Defensive Sectors | Breadth | 48.72 | -4.67 | 1.6% | 2.8% | 4.0% | 15.0% | 15.2% | 72.0% | 22.6% | 7.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| SPHB | High Beta | Factors / Risk Appetite | Price proxy | 48.58 | -0.18 | 0.4% | -4.5% | -0.5% | 22.5% | 28.3% | 40.0% | 38.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| JETS | Airlines | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 47.99 | -14.69 | -1.6% | -9.3% | 10.9% | 24.9% | 22.0% | 40.0% | 37.5% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| CWB | Convertible Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 46.92 | -4.78 | -0.3% | -2.8% | -3.7% | 10.8% | 15.9% | 40.0% | 34.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLG | S&P Top 50 | Core Index Beta | Price proxy | 45.51 | -13.27 | -1.2% | -1.2% | -5.5% | 10.4% | 2.8% | 40.0% | 31.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| GRID | Smart Grid Infrastructure | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 44.68 | -0.53 | 0.2% | -3.7% | -7.5% | 10.8% | 17.0% | 40.0% | 31.3% | 5.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| EEM | Emerging Markets | International Equity | Price proxy | 44.53 | -5.13 | -0.4% | -3.6% | -3.4% | 14.4% | 17.5% | 40.0% | 31.9% | 8.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| COAL | Coal | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 43.48 | 8.67 | 1.5% | 4.2% | -3.8% | -12.5% | 9.2% | 20.0% | 63.7% | 40.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XLV | Health Care | Defensive Sectors | Breadth | 43.14 | -7.81 | 2.1% | -0.7% | 8.9% | 12.8% | 8.4% | 65.5% | 11.3% | 13.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| COPX | Copper Miners | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 43.06 | 18.58 | 5.2% | 1.4% | -6.4% | 12.9% | 30.5% | 20.0% | 66.1% | 49.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| IWF | Russell 1000 Growth | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 42.91 | -14.34 | -1.5% | -2.9% | -5.8% | 10.2% | 0.2% | 40.0% | 24.8% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLI | Industrials | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 42.58 | 2.43 | 2.5% | -0.7% | 6.6% | 13.6% | 21.2% | 67.9% | 17.7% | 12.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| XES | Oil & Gas Equipment | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 42.34 | 9.03 | 1.5% | 6.0% | -12.5% | 0.2% | 42.9% | 20.0% | 57.8% | 31.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| BTC-USD | Bitcoin | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 41.04 | -13.98 | -1.4% | 2.0% | -16.1% | -6.4% | -32.7% | 60.0% | 33.9% | 96.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | False |
| SPY | S&P 500 | Core Index Beta | Breadth | 40.87 | -2.72 | -0.4% | -0.8% | -0.6% | 14.2% | 10.9% | 61.7% | 12.1% | 14.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLB | Materials | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 38.09 | -0.54 | 2.5% | -1.4% | 2.3% | 10.0% | 19.7% | 60.3% | 7.7% | 11.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | True | True |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | Defensive Sectors | Breadth | 36.97 | -12.17 | -0.9% | -1.0% | -0.1% | 4.8% | 11.1% | 56.9% | 6.9% | 12.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XTL | Telecom | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 35.37 | -9.38 | -0.7% | -4.0% | -10.9% | 12.8% | 48.0% | 40.0% | 19.5% | 36.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| EMLC | EM Local Currency Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 34.47 | -8.67 | -0.6% | -1.0% | 0.6% | 3.4% | 2.7% | 0.0% | 48.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| ITB | Home Construction | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 34.47 | 10.09 | 1.8% | -5.6% | 6.9% | 10.2% | 0.5% | 0.0% | 58.4% | 26.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| TIP | TIPS | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 33.88 | -7.26 | -0.5% | -0.8% | -0.5% | 0.1% | 0.3% | 0.0% | 47.2% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| MBB | Mortgage-Backed Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 33.76 | -6.55 | -0.5% | -1.1% | -0.3% | 0.3% | 0.7% | 0.0% | 46.9% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| IEF | 7-10 Year Treasury | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 33.41 | -7.96 | -0.5% | -1.2% | -0.2% | -0.6% | -1.0% | 0.0% | 46.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| AGG | Aggregate Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 33.29 | -6.90 | -0.5% | -1.2% | -0.3% | 0.1% | 0.1% | 0.0% | 45.7% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| EMB | EM USD Bonds | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 32.58 | -10.09 | -0.8% | -1.6% | 0.3% | 3.4% | 2.0% | 0.0% | 44.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XHB | Homebuilders | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 32.44 | -8.07 | 2.2% | -3.7% | 8.6% | 13.1% | 5.6% | 58.6% | 3.0% | 15.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| AIQ | Artificial Intelligence | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 31.86 | -16.11 | -2.0% | -6.3% | -7.7% | 22.4% | 15.7% | 40.0% | 13.6% | 43.8% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 31.69 | -12.92 | -1.1% | -10.0% | -8.9% | 29.4% | 31.5% | 40.0% | 12.7% | 42.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| PFF | Preferred Stock | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 31.40 | -7.61 | -0.5% | -1.0% | -2.6% | 1.5% | 0.9% | 0.0% | 41.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 30.74 | -1.99 | -4.5% | -6.6% | -8.0% | 2.0% | -4.7% | 42.6% | 2.1% | 19.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| CARZ | Global Autos | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 29.92 | -15.40 | -1.7% | -7.9% | -11.2% | 27.0% | 35.9% | 40.0% | 9.4% | 45.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| LQD | Investment Grade Credit | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 29.51 | -10.44 | -0.9% | -2.2% | -1.3% | 0.0% | -0.7% | 0.0% | 36.3% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| TLT | 20+ Year Treasury | Rates / Credit | Price proxy | 29.40 | -9.73 | -0.8% | -2.6% | -0.9% | -1.5% | -3.5% | 0.0% | 36.0% | 0.0% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| QQQ | Nasdaq 100 | Core Index Beta | Breadth | 28.14 | -4.48 | -1.7% | -4.0% | -4.5% | 17.8% | 12.8% | 41.5% | 5.9% | 22.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| XLK | Technology | Growth / Tech Leadership | Breadth | 26.90 | -0.18 | 0.1% | -2.6% | -2.4% | 30.3% | 22.6% | 39.2% | 1.8% | 25.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
| NUKZ | Nuclear Energy | Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Price proxy | 26.72 | 14.34 | 3.0% | -3.5% | -9.2% | -2.2% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 42.5% | 35.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| INDA | India | International Equity | Price proxy | 25.91 | -12.21 | -1.1% | -3.1% | -0.8% | 3.1% | -12.1% | 0.0% | 33.0% | 15.3% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XLC | Communication Services | Cyclical Sectors | Breadth | 24.46 | -9.70 | -4.1% | -3.0% | -7.7% | -4.7% | -3.7% | 29.0% | 2.9% | 30.4% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| ROBO | Robotics & Automation | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 21.98 | 3.01 | 0.7% | -6.7% | -10.8% | 14.2% | 17.2% | 0.0% | 26.3% | 23.5% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| XME | Metals & Mining | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 21.94 | 17.17 | 4.1% | -3.2% | -13.0% | 0.1% | 11.1% | 0.0% | 43.1% | 68.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | Style / Market Structure | Price proxy | 20.88 | -19.29 | -5.6% | -3.0% | -9.0% | 8.2% | -1.3% | 0.0% | 17.4% | 7.2% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| GLD | Gold | Commodities / Crypto / USD | Price proxy | 20.64 | 6.55 | 1.2% | -1.6% | -10.1% | -10.0% | -1.1% | 0.0% | 42.5% | 75.6% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| PNQI | Internet | Growth / Tech Leadership | Price proxy | 19.95 | -17.88 | -4.6% | -2.3% | -3.7% | 2.7% | -13.2% | 0.0% | 24.8% | 33.1% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| IHI | Medical Devices | Financial / Health Care Industries | Price proxy | 19.88 | -9.03 | -0.7% | -3.2% | -0.5% | -7.6% | -19.1% | 0.0% | 35.7% | 62.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| GDX | Gold Miners | Metals / Miners | Price proxy | 17.46 | 19.29 | 6.3% | -4.1% | -11.5% | -6.1% | -0.5% | 0.0% | 42.5% | 96.9% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | False |
| SMH | Semiconductors | Growth / Tech Leadership | Breadth | 17.41 | 3.05 | 0.4% | -5.3% | -2.6% | 45.9% | 63.2% | 32.0% | 0.0% | 26.7% | n/a | n/a | n/a | n/a | False | True |
Highest Breadth Health
| Ticker | Name | Health Score | Health 1W Change | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| IHE | Pharmaceuticals | 95.63 | 15.75 | 100.0% | 89.1% | 0.0% |
| CRAK | Oil Refiners | 93.75 | 1.95 | 100.0% | 84.4% | 0.0% |
| PAVE | Infrastructure | 92.68 | 16.11 | 100.0% | 81.7% | 0.0% |
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | 92.45 | 11.50 | 100.0% | 81.1% | 0.0% |
| DXJ | Japan Hedged Equity | 92.09 | 12.92 | 100.0% | 80.2% | 0.0% |
Lowest Breadth Health
| Ticker | Name | Health Score | Health 1W Change | Trend Breadth | Leadership Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFO | Space Economy | 6.13 | -3.72 | 0.0% | 14.2% | 96.9% |
| IGV | Software | 11.79 | -18.94 | 0.0% | 12.7% | 55.2% |
| PALL | Palladium | 12.15 | -11.86 | 0.0% | 29.2% | 96.9% |
| URNM | Uranium Miners | 12.98 | 11.86 | 0.0% | 31.3% | 96.9% |
| PLTM | Platinum | 13.04 | -1.77 | 0.0% | 31.4% | 96.9% |
Weekly Breadth Improvers
| Ticker | Name | Health 1W Change | Health Score | Trend Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | Oil | 20.00 | 90.65 | 100.0% | 4.1% |
| GDXJ | Junior Gold Miners | 19.65 | 16.99 | 0.0% | 96.9% |
| GDX | Gold Miners | 19.29 | 17.46 | 0.0% | 96.9% |
| SIL | Silver Miners | 18.94 | 15.93 | 0.0% | 96.9% |
| COPX | Copper Miners | 18.58 | 43.06 | 20.0% | 49.2% |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | 18.23 | 78.85 | 80.0% | 0.0% |
| OIH | Oil Services | 17.88 | 65.19 | 60.0% | 22.4% |
| SILJ | Junior Silver Miners | 17.52 | 14.75 | 0.0% | 96.9% |
| XME | Metals & Mining | 17.17 | 21.94 | 0.0% | 68.6% |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | 16.81 | 88.80 | 100.0% | 3.1% |
Weekly Breadth Deteriorators
| Ticker | Name | Health 1W Change | Health Score | Trend Breadth | Damage Breadth |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUG | Cybersecurity | -19.65 | 66.34 | 80.0% | 0.0% |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | -19.29 | 20.88 | 0.0% | 7.2% |
| IGV | Software | -18.94 | 11.79 | 0.0% | 55.2% |
| CLOU | Cloud Computing | -18.58 | 65.76 | 80.0% | 16.4% |
| SOCL | Social Media | -18.23 | 16.90 | 0.0% | 73.1% |
| PNQI | Internet | -17.88 | 19.95 | 0.0% | 33.1% |
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | -17.17 | 15.78 | 0.0% | 24.7% |
| HERO | Video Games & Esports | -16.46 | 15.29 | 0.0% | 61.8% |
| AIQ | Artificial Intelligence | -16.11 | 31.86 | 40.0% | 43.8% |
| CARZ | Global Autos | -15.40 | 29.92 | 40.0% | 45.7% |
This Week's ETF Price Leaders
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | Oil | 8.9% | 31.5% | -3.0% | 12.6% | True | True |
| GDXJ | Junior Gold Miners | 6.7% | -5.0% | -12.4% | -6.7% | False | False |
| GDX | Gold Miners | 6.3% | -4.1% | -11.5% | -6.1% | False | False |
| SIL | Silver Miners | 5.6% | -5.9% | -14.3% | -4.6% | False | False |
| COPX | Copper Miners | 5.2% | 1.4% | -6.4% | 12.9% | False | False |
| ITA | Aerospace & Defense | 4.7% | -3.2% | 6.6% | 8.0% | True | True |
| OIH | Oil Services | 4.4% | 8.9% | -11.8% | 1.2% | True | False |
| SILJ | Junior Silver Miners | 4.4% | -7.3% | -14.1% | -5.9% | False | False |
| XME | Metals & Mining | 4.1% | -3.2% | -13.0% | 0.1% | False | False |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | 4.1% | 10.2% | -3.4% | -5.3% | True | True |
This Week's ETF Price Laggards
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| BUG | Cybersecurity | -6.4% | -3.9% | 10.0% | 46.9% | True | True |
| MAGS | Magnificent 7 | -5.6% | -3.0% | -9.0% | 8.2% | False | False |
| IGV | Software | -5.4% | -6.0% | -6.4% | 6.0% | False | False |
| CLOU | Cloud Computing | -5.1% | -0.6% | 0.9% | 17.3% | True | True |
| SOCL | Social Media | -4.7% | -2.4% | -0.2% | 0.0% | False | False |
| PNQI | Internet | -4.6% | -2.3% | -3.7% | 2.7% | False | False |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -4.5% | -6.6% | -8.0% | 2.0% | False | False |
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | -4.1% | -11.5% | -5.9% | 4.0% | False | False |
| XLC | Communication Services | -4.1% | -3.0% | -7.7% | -4.7% | False | False |
| HERO | Video Games & Esports | -2.4% | -3.1% | -3.7% | -3.1% | False | False |
1M ETF Price Leaders
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| USO | Oil | 8.9% | 31.5% | -3.0% | 12.6% | 91.5% | True | True |
| CRAK | Oil Refiners | 0.6% | 16.2% | 13.7% | 15.5% | 36.3% | True | True |
| GSG | Broad Commodities | 3.6% | 15.5% | -1.4% | 3.3% | 40.9% | True | True |
| DBC | Broad Commodities | 3.3% | 13.3% | -1.4% | 4.0% | 35.5% | True | True |
| XOP | Oil & Gas Exploration | 2.4% | 12.6% | 1.7% | -0.9% | 32.0% | True | True |
| XLE | Energy | 2.9% | 12.0% | 0.9% | 1.9% | 32.5% | True | True |
| FCG | Natural Gas Producers | 4.1% | 10.2% | -3.4% | -5.3% | 22.8% | True | True |
| OIH | Oil Services | 4.4% | 8.9% | -11.8% | 1.2% | 38.7% | True | False |
| FXI | China Large Cap | -1.3% | 8.4% | -1.9% | -0.9% | -12.2% | True | False |
| XES | Oil & Gas Equipment | 1.5% | 6.0% | -12.5% | 0.2% | 42.9% | False | False |
1M ETF Price Laggards
| Ticker | Name | 1W | 1M | 3M | 6M | 1Y | Above 50DMA | Above 200DMA |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| UFO | Space Economy | -0.2% | -15.2% | -30.5% | -5.2% | 28.8% | False | False |
| ARKK | Speculative Innovation | -4.1% | -11.5% | -5.9% | 4.0% | -6.5% | False | False |
| QTUM | Quantum Computing | -1.1% | -10.0% | -8.9% | 29.4% | 31.5% | False | True |
| JETS | Airlines | -1.6% | -9.3% | 10.9% | 24.9% | 22.0% | False | True |
| CARZ | Global Autos | -1.7% | -7.9% | -11.2% | 27.0% | 35.9% | False | True |
| URA | Uranium | 3.2% | -7.7% | -18.5% | -14.1% | -6.6% | False | False |
| SILJ | Junior Silver Miners | 4.4% | -7.3% | -14.1% | -5.9% | 10.3% | False | False |
| ROBO | Robotics & Automation | 0.7% | -6.7% | -10.8% | 14.2% | 17.2% | False | False |
| XLY | Consumer Discretionary | -4.5% | -6.6% | -8.0% | 2.0% | -4.7% | False | False |
| URNM | Uranium Miners | 2.4% | -6.4% | -15.1% | -15.0% | -5.4% | False | False |
Allocation Playbook
Same rules as the Model Allocation page, shown as a PM action checklist. This page is derived from the current allocation table, including the financial-conditions overlay, so views cannot drift from the model. Price/breadth as of 2026-07-25; breadth metrics as of 2026-07-24; CFTC positioning as of 2026-07-21; VAMS as of 2026-07-25; Options as of 2026-07-24.
| Asset / Sleeve | Rules-Based View | Why | Risk To Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Core Index Beta | Underweight | Optimized base 10.0%; signal 22.98; overlay +2.7 from positioning +4.0, VAMS +1.2, FCI -3.0, Options +0.4; score tilt -2.4, regime tilt -2.0; final model weight 8.3%. | Breadth rollover, VAMS sell expansion, or credit spread widening. |
| Style / Market Structure | Overweight | Optimized base 14.0%; signal 27.52; overlay +1.3 from positioning +2.0, VAMS +0.6, FCI -1.5, Options +0.2; score tilt -2.1, regime tilt +0.0; final model weight 17.6%. | Leadership narrows into one cap/style bucket or equal-weight participation fades. |
| Factors / Risk Appetite | Neutral | Optimized base 3.0%; signal 39.17; overlay -0.7 from positioning +0.0, VAMS +0.6, FCI -1.5, Options +0.2; score tilt -1.1, regime tilt +0.0; final model weight 2.7%. | High-beta factor leadership fails or quality stops confirming. |
| Growth / Tech Leadership | Underweight | Optimized base 7.0%; signal 3.56; overlay +1.4 from positioning +1.2, VAMS +1.2, FCI -1.5, Options +0.4; score tilt -4.0, regime tilt -2.0; final model weight 1.5%. Weakest current ETFs to avoid or monitor: UFO, IGV, PALL, URNM. | Real-yield shock, crowded positioning, or failed VAMS confirmation. |
| Cyclical Sectors | Neutral | Optimized base 14.0%; signal 23.16; overlay -0.9 from positioning +1.2, VAMS +0.6, FCI -3.0, Options +0.3; score tilt -2.8, regime tilt -2.0; final model weight 13.7%. Weakest current ETFs to avoid or monitor: UFO, IGV, PALL, URNM. | Credit widening, cyclicals losing breadth, or defensive leadership taking over. |
| Defensive Sectors | Overweight | Optimized base 14.0%; signal 31.68; overlay +0.4 from positioning +0.0, VAMS -0.4, FCI +0.9, Options -0.1; score tilt -1.8, regime tilt +0.0; final model weight 18.1%. | Risk-on broadening that leaves defensives lagging. |
| Industries / Infrastructure / Housing | Underweight | Optimized base 7.4%; signal 26.28; overlay -0.7 from positioning +0.0, VAMS +0.6, FCI -1.5, Options +0.2; score tilt -2.4, regime tilt -2.0; final model weight 4.4%. | Theme-level breadth fades before broad indexes confirm. |
| Thematic / Speculative Growth | Underweight | Optimized base 1.0%; signal 9.17; overlay -0.2 from positioning +0.0, VAMS +0.9, FCI -1.5, Options +0.4; score tilt -4.0, regime tilt -2.0; final model weight 0.0%. Weakest current ETFs to avoid or monitor: UFO, IGV, PALL, URNM. | Speculative leadership loses VAMS confirmation or damage breadth rises. |
| Financial / Health Care Industries | Neutral | Optimized base 2.0%; signal 41.13; overlay -0.3 from positioning +0.0, VAMS +0.4, FCI -0.9, Options +0.2; score tilt -0.9, regime tilt +0.0; final model weight 1.6%. | Industry dispersion worsens or financial/health care proxies diverge from sector read. |
| International Equity | Underweight | Optimized base 3.0%; signal 35.18; overlay +0.1 from positioning +0.8, VAMS +0.6, FCI -1.5, Options +0.2; score tilt -1.5, regime tilt -2.0; final model weight 0.0%. | Dollar strength, weak local breadth, or global risk-off rotation. |
| Rates / Credit | Overweight | Optimized base 7.0%; signal 17.31; overlay +1.7 from positioning +0.0, VAMS +0.0, FCI +1.5, Options +0.2; score tilt -3.1, regime tilt +3.0; final model weight 10.2%. | Bear steepening, rates-vol shock, or IG/HY spread widening. |
| Metals / Miners | Underweight | Optimized base 1.0%; signal 14.40; overlay -0.1 from positioning +0.0, VAMS +0.4, FCI -0.6, Options +0.1; score tilt -3.6, regime tilt +0.0; final model weight 0.0%. | Miner breadth fails to confirm metals strength. |
| Commodities / Crypto / USD | Overweight | Optimized base 9.0%; signal 25.74; overlay +1.4 from positioning +0.0, VAMS +0.4, FCI +0.9, Options +0.1; score tilt -2.3, regime tilt +0.0; final model weight 10.0%. | Momentum reversal, weaker inflation impulse, dollar strength, or crypto/liquidity breakdown. |
| Cash / Dry Powder | Overweight | Optimized base 7.6%; signal 27.02; overlay -2.7 from positioning -4.0, VAMS -1.2, FCI +3.0, Options -0.4; score tilt -2.6, regime tilt +3.0; final model weight 11.9%. | Opportunity cost if breadth and VAMS broaden quickly. |