CPI Inflation Breadth Buckets
Stacked share of CPI components below 2%, 2-3%, 3-4%, and above 4% year-over-year.
Institutional inflation and consumer deck across CPI, PCE, PPI, breadth, consumer income, savings, credit, delinquencies, Michigan survey indicators, NY Fed SCE, credit access, and policy context.
Headline CPI inflation
CPI excluding food and energy
Fed-preferred core inflation
Producer-price pipeline pressure
Tracked CPI components above 3% YoY
Tracked CPI components above 4% YoY
University of Michigan 1-year expected inflation
Market-implied 5-year inflation compensation
Real disposable income growth
Household saving buffer
University of Michigan sentiment
Composite inflation pressure score
Inflation-only recession pressure model
Quick read of the hottest and coldest latest readings across CPI, PCE, and PPI buckets.
| Category | YoY Upside Extreme | YoY Downside Extreme | MoM Upside Extreme | MoM Downside Extreme |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI Components | New Vehicles 28.42% CUSR0000SETB01 | 2026-04-01 | Used Cars -2.69% CUSR0000SETA02 | 2026-04-01 | New Vehicles 5.44% CUSR0000SETB01 | 2026-04-01 | Apparel -0.57% CUUS0000SAA | 2025-07-01 |
| CPI / Core | CPI Less Shelter 4.05% CUSR0000SA0L2 | 2026-04-01 | Core Goods 1.14% CUSR0000SACL1E | 2026-04-01 | CPI Less Shelter 0.66% CUSR0000SA0L2 | 2026-04-01 | Core Goods 0.03% CUSR0000SACL1E | 2026-04-01 |
| PCE Inflation | PCE Goods 4.39% DGDSRG3M086SBEA | 2026-04-01 | Core PCE 3.29% PCEPILFE | 2026-04-01 | PCE Goods 0.73% DGDSRG3M086SBEA | 2026-04-01 | Core PCE 0.24% PCEPILFE | 2026-04-01 |
| PPI Pipeline | PPI All Commodities 9.82% PPIACO | 2026-04-01 | PPI Finished Goods 5.99% PPIFIS | 2026-04-01 | PPI All Commodities 2.66% PPIACO | 2026-04-01 | PPI Finished Goods 1.38% PPIFIS | 2026-04-01 |
Latest month-over-month and year-over-year percent changes for core inflation measures and major buckets.
| Measure | Series | Latest Obs | Latest MoM % | Latest YoY % |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| CPI | CPIAUCSL | 2026-04-01 | 0.64% | 3.78% |
| Core CPI | CPILFESL | 2026-04-01 | 0.38% | 2.74% |
| Core Goods CPI | CUSR0000SACL1E | 2026-04-01 | 0.03% | 1.14% |
| Services Less Energy CPI | CUSR0000SASLE | 2026-04-01 | 0.50% | 3.25% |
| Food CPI | CPIUFDSL | 2026-04-01 | 0.50% | 3.22% |
| Energy CPI | CPIENGSL | 2026-04-01 | 3.81% | 17.54% |
| Shelter CPI | CUSR0000SAH1 | 2026-04-01 | 0.61% | 3.29% |
| PCE | PCEPI | 2026-04-01 | 0.40% | 3.77% |
| Core PCE | PCEPILFE | 2026-04-01 | 0.24% | 3.29% |
| PCE Goods | DGDSRG3M086SBEA | 2026-04-01 | 0.73% | 4.39% |
| PCE Services | DSERRG3M086SBEA | 2026-04-01 | 0.25% | 3.49% |
| PPI All Commodities | PPIACO | 2026-04-01 | 2.66% | 9.82% |
| PPI Final Demand | WPSFD49207 | 2026-04-01 | 1.66% | 6.28% |
Stacked share of CPI components below 2%, 2-3%, 3-4%, and above 4% year-over-year.
Cleaned year-over-year component heatmap using monthly common coverage.
Cross-sectional view of latest CPI component inflation.
Latest month-over-month CPI component inflation.
Short-run annualized component momentum.
Monthly breadth of components accelerating versus the prior month.
Inflation pressure versus labor-market slack.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Individual CPI component line: year-over-year inflation only.
Percent of tracked CPI components running above 3% and 4% year-over-year.
Composite z-score using core CPI, core PCE, breadth, shelter, expectations, PPI, and commodities.
Inflation-only stress model: restrictive rates, falling real income, high inflation breadth, and sentiment pressure.
Share of tracked CPI components running below 2% year-over-year.
Share of tracked CPI components running between 2% and 3% year-over-year.
Share of tracked CPI components running between 3% and 4% year-over-year.
Share of tracked CPI components running above 3% year-over-year.
Share of tracked CPI components running above 4% year-over-year.
Share of tracked CPI components accelerating month-over-month since 2015.
Short-run annualized CPI momentum catches inflections faster than YoY.
Core CPI annualized momentum strips food and energy volatility.
Separates shelter-heavy core inflation from the ex-shelter impulse.
Headline CPI inflation as a single clean line.
Core CPI inflation as a single clean line.
Core goods inflation as a single clean line.
Services less energy inflation as a single clean line.
Core goods and services-less-energy inflation side by side.
Month-to-month change in the year-over-year CPI inflation rate.
Shelter inflation is the slow-moving center of services inflation.
Near-term shelter impulse across shelter, rent, and owners' equivalent rent.
Food and energy drive household inflation salience and near-term expectations.
Gasoline CPI inflation versus crude oil; natural gas removed for readability.
GSG commodity index as a broad inflation pipeline indicator versus CPI.
Short-run core PCE momentum for policy-cycle monitoring.
Headline PCE inflation as a single clean line.
Core PCE inflation as a single clean line.
PCE goods and services price inflation, without headline PCE cluttering the panel.
Producer prices lead margin and pass-through pressure.
Consumer inflation versus upstream producer-price pressure.
Credit demand and rejection rates from the NY Fed SCE Credit Access module.
Emergency cash resilience, need for funds, and lender account closures.
Rejection rates by credit-card, auto-loan, home-loan, and credit-limit-increase applications.
Consumers' perceived probability of rejection by major credit category.
Real household income versus real consumption growth.
Disposable personal income and PCE growth together.
Real personal income excluding transfer receipts, year-over-year.
Credit growth shows whether consumption is income-funded or balance-sheet funded.
Bank-reported delinquency rates for consumer credit, credit cards, other consumer loans, and mortgages.
NY Fed Household Debt and Credit Report: percent of balances 90+ days delinquent by loan type.
Debt burden versus savings cushion.
Personal saving rate as a single clean line.
Household net worth as a percent of disposable income, inverted, versus the saving rate.
Demand growth versus consumer-price pressure.
Goods shares on the left axis and services share on the right axis.
Atlanta Fed 25th and 75th percentile wage growth show distributional wage pressure.
Payroll wage growth and ECI wages connect labor costs to services inflation.
Wage tracker pressure mapped against core CPI inflation.
Atlanta Fed median hourly wage growth tracker as a single clean line.
Job stayer and switcher wage growth reveal wage bargaining pressure.
Wage tracker pressure mapped against worker confidence through the quits rate.
Dallas Fed wages and benefits index against the effective fed funds rate.
Dollar strength and commodities shape tradable inflation.
Classic misery index: CPI inflation plus U-3 unemployment.
Alternative misery index: Michigan one-year inflation expectations plus U-3 unemployment.
Import and export price inflation capture tradable-price pressure.
Cleveland Fed median CPI as a single clean distribution-aware inflation line.
Cleveland Fed trimmed mean CPI as a single clean distribution-aware inflation line.
Atlanta Fed sticky-price CPI as a single clean line.
Atlanta Fed flexible-price CPI as a single clean line.
Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE year-over-year inflation.
Dallas Fed trimmed mean PCE one-month annualized impulse.
Market-implied five-year inflation compensation.
Market-implied ten-year inflation compensation.
Forward market-implied inflation compensation.
University of Michigan median one-year expected inflation.
University of Michigan median five-year expected inflation.
Headline University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment as a single clean line.
NY Fed SCE one-year median expected inflation.
NY Fed SCE three-year median expected inflation.
NY Fed SCE expected home price change.
NY Fed SCE expected gasoline price change.
NY Fed SCE expected food price change.
NY Fed SCE expected earnings growth.
NY Fed SCE probability unemployment will be higher one year ahead.
NY Fed SCE expected household income growth.
NY Fed SCE expected household spending growth.
Policy rate backdrop versus headline CPI inflation; real policy rate removed.
Official University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers historical series.
Official University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers historical series.
Official University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers historical series.
Official University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers historical series.
Official University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers historical series.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
Curated University of Michigan survey indicator using the relative or mean series where available.
All historical Excel tables from the University of Michigan Surveys of Consumers data-site table page are downloaded into the local cache for this deck refresh.
| # | Table | Name | Cached File |
|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 1a | All Tables | michigan_sca_01_1a.xls |
| 2 | 1b | 1aThe Index of Consumer Sentiment | michigan_sca_02_1b.xls |
| 3 | 2n | 1bComponents of the Index of Consumer Sentiment | michigan_sca_03_2n.xls |
| 4 | 3n | 2nThe Index of Consumer Sentiment, Current, and Expected Within Income Terciles | michigan_sca_04_3n.xls |
| 5 | 4n | 3nThe Index of Consumer Sentiment, Current, and Expected Within Age Groups | michigan_sca_05_4n.xls |
| 6 | 5a | 4nThe Index of Consumer Sentiment, Current, and Expected Within Education Groups | michigan_sca_06_5a.xls |
| 7 | 5b | 5aThe Index of Consumer Sentiment, Current, and Expected Within Regions | michigan_sca_07_5b.xls |
| 8 | 6 | 5bThe Index of Consumer Sentiment, Current, and Expected Within Political Party | michigan_sca_08_6.xls |
| 9 | 7 | 6Current Financial Situation Compared with a Year Ago | michigan_sca_09_7.xls |
| 10 | 8 | 7Reasons for Opinions About Household Financial Situation | michigan_sca_10_8.xls |
| 11 | 9 | 8Expected Change in Financial Situation in a Year | michigan_sca_11_9.xls |
| 12 | 10 | 9Annual Trend in Household Financial Situation | michigan_sca_12_10.xls |
| 13 | 11 | 10Current Financial Situation Compared with 5 Years Ago | michigan_sca_13_11.xls |
| 14 | 12 | 11Expected Change in Financial Situation in 5 Years | michigan_sca_14_12.xls |
| 15 | 13 | 12Five Year Trend in Household Financial Situation | michigan_sca_15_13.xls |
| 16 | 14 | 13Expected Household Income Change During the Next Year | michigan_sca_16_14.xls |
| 17 | 15 | 14Expected Change in Real Household Income During Next Year | michigan_sca_17_15.xls |
| 18 | 16 | 15Probability of Personal Income Increase During the Next Year | michigan_sca_18_16.xls |
| 19 | 17 | 16Probability of Real Income Gains During the Next 5 Years | michigan_sca_19_17.xls |
| 20 | 18 | 17Probability of Losing a Job During the Next 5 Years | michigan_sca_20_18.xls |
| 21 | 19 | 18Probability of Adequate Retirement Income | michigan_sca_21_19.xls |
| 22 | 20 | 19Change in Likelihood of Comfortable Retirement | michigan_sca_22_20.xls |
| 23 | 21 | 20Probability of Increase in Stock Market in Next Year | michigan_sca_23_21.xls |
| 24 | 22 | 21Current Value of Stock Market Investments | michigan_sca_24_22.xls |
| 25 | 23 | 22Current Market Value of Primary Residence | michigan_sca_25_23.xls |
| 26 | 24 | 23News Heard of Recent Changes in Business Conditions | michigan_sca_26_24.xls |
| 27 | 25 | 24News Items Heard of Recent Changes in Business Conditions | michigan_sca_27_25.xls |
| 28 | 26 | 25Current Business Conditions Compared with a Year Ago | michigan_sca_28_26.xls |
| 29 | 27 | 26Expected Change in Business Conditions in a Year | michigan_sca_29_27.xls |
| 30 | 28 | 27Trend in Past and Expected Changes in Business Conditions | michigan_sca_30_28.xls |
| 31 | 29 | 28Business Conditions Expected During the Next Year | michigan_sca_31_29.xls |
| 32 | 30 | 29Business Conditions Expected During the Next 5 Years | michigan_sca_32_30.xls |
| 33 | 31 | 30Expected Change in Unemployment During the Next Year | michigan_sca_33_31.xls |
| 34 | 32 | 31Expected Change in Interest Rates During the Next Year | michigan_sca_34_32.xls |
| 35 | 33 | 32Expected Change in Prices During the Next Year | michigan_sca_35_33.xls |
| 36 | 34 | 33Expected Change in Prices During the Next 5 Years | michigan_sca_36_34.xls |
| 37 | 35 | 34Opinions About the Government's Economic Policy | michigan_sca_37_35.xls |
| 38 | 36 | 35Buying Conditions for Large Household Durables | michigan_sca_38_36.xls |
| 39 | 37 | 36Reasons for Opinions About Large Household Durables | michigan_sca_39_37.xls |
| 40 | 38 | 37Buying Conditions for Vehicles | michigan_sca_40_38.xls |
| 41 | 39 | 38Reasons for Opinions for Buying Conditions for Vehicles | michigan_sca_41_39.xls |
| 42 | 40 | 39Expected Change in Gasoline Prices During the Next Year | michigan_sca_42_40.xls |
| 43 | 41 | 40Expected Change in Gasoline Prices During the Next 5 Years | michigan_sca_43_41.xls |
| 44 | 42 | 41Buying Conditions for Houses | michigan_sca_44_42.xls |
| 45 | 43 | 42Reasons for Opinions About House Buying Conditions | michigan_sca_45_43.xls |
| 46 | 44 | 43Selling Conditions for Houses | michigan_sca_46_44.xls |
| 47 | 45 | 44Reasons for Opinions About House Selling Conditions | michigan_sca_47_45.xls |
| 48 | 46 | 45Change in Home Values During the Past Year | michigan_sca_48_46.xls |
| 49 | 47 | 46Expected Change in Home Values During the Next Year | michigan_sca_49_47.xls |
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| CPI | Consumer Price Index: a basket-price measure of consumer inflation. |
| Core CPI | CPI excluding food and energy. |
| PCE | Personal Consumption Expenditures price index; the Fed's preferred inflation framework. |
| Inflation Breadth | Share of tracked CPI components above a threshold, such as 3% or 4% YoY. |
| 3M Annualized | Three-month price change compounded to a one-year rate. |
| Median / Trimmed CPI | Distribution-aware inflation gauges that reduce outlier influence. |
| Breakeven Inflation | Market-implied inflation compensation from Treasury markets. |
| Real DPI | Disposable personal income adjusted for inflation. |
| Saving Rate | Personal saving as a share of disposable personal income. |
| Theme | Notebook Count |
|---|---|
| CPI | 318 |
| Consumer | 146 |
| Series | Name | Group |
|---|---|---|
| CPIAUCSL | Consumer Price Index | CPI |
| CPILFESL | Core CPI | CPI |
| CUSR0000SA0L2 | CPI Less Shelter | CPI |
| CUSR0000SACL1E | CPI Core Goods | CPI |
| CUSR0000SASLE | CPI Services Less Energy | CPI |
| CPIENGSL | CPI Energy | CPI Components |
| CPIUFDSL | CPI Food | CPI Components |
| CUSR0000SAF11 | CPI Food at Home | CPI Components |
| CUSR0000SAF116 | CPI Food Away from Home | CPI Components |
| CUSR0000SAH1 | CPI Shelter | CPI Components |
| CUSR0000SEHA | Rent of Primary Residence | Shelter |
| CUSR0000SEHC | Owners' Equivalent Rent | Shelter |
| CUSR0000SEHF01 | Lodging Away from Home | Shelter |
| CUSR0000SETB01 | New Vehicles | CPI Components |
| CUSR0000SETA02 | Used Cars and Trucks | CPI Components |
| CUSR0000SETG01 | Motor Vehicle Insurance | CPI Components |
| CUSR0000SEFV | Gasoline | CPI Components |
| CPIMEDSL | Medical Care | CPI Components |
| CUUS0000SAA | Apparel | CPI Components |
| CUUS0000SAR | Recreation | CPI Components |
| CPIEDUSL | Education and Communication | CPI Components |
| PCEPI | PCE Price Index | PCE Inflation |
| PCEPILFE | Core PCE Price Index | PCE Inflation |
| DGDSRG3M086SBEA | PCE Goods Price Index | PCE Inflation |
| DSERRG3M086SBEA | PCE Services Price Index | PCE Inflation |
| PPIACO | Producer Price Index: All Commodities | PPI |
| WPSFD49207 | PPI Final Demand | PPI |
| PPIFIS | PPI Finished Goods | PPI |
| MEDCPIM158SFRBCLE | Median CPI | Alternative Inflation |
| TRMMEANCPIM158SFRBCLE | Trimmed Mean CPI | Alternative Inflation |
| PCETRIM12M159SFRBDAL | Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE YoY | Alternative Inflation |
| PCETRIM1M158SFRBDAL | Dallas Fed Trimmed Mean PCE 1M Annualized | Alternative Inflation |
| STICKCPIM157SFRBATL | Sticky Price CPI | Alternative Inflation |
| FLEXCPIM157SFRBATL | Flexible Price CPI | Alternative Inflation |
| T5YIE | 5-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | Market Expectations |
| T10YIE | 10-Year Breakeven Inflation Rate | Market Expectations |
| T5YIFR | 5Y5Y Forward Inflation Expectation Rate | Market Expectations |
| PI | Personal Income | Consumer Income |
| DPI | Disposable Personal Income | Consumer Income |
| DSPI | Disposable Personal Income | Consumer Income |
| W875RX1 | Real Personal Income Excluding Transfer Receipts | Consumer Income |
| DSPIC96 | Real Disposable Personal Income | Consumer Income |
| PCE | Personal Consumption Expenditures | Consumer Spending |
| PCEC96 | Real Personal Consumption Expenditures | Consumer Spending |
| PCEDG | PCE Durable Goods | Consumer Spending |
| PCEND | PCE Nondurable Goods | Consumer Spending |
| PCESV | PCE Services | Consumer Spending |
| PSAVERT | Personal Saving Rate | Consumer Balance Sheet |
| BOGZ1FL192090005Q | Household Net Worth | Consumer Balance Sheet |
| TOTALSL | Consumer Credit Outstanding | Consumer Credit |
| REVOLSL | Revolving Consumer Credit | Consumer Credit |
| NONREVSL | Nonrevolving Consumer Credit | Consumer Credit |
| TDSP | Household Debt Service Payments | Consumer Balance Sheet |
| RSAFS | Retail Sales | Consumer Spending |
| DRCCLACBS | Delinquency Rate on Credit Card Loans | Consumer Credit Delinquency |
| DRCLACBS | Delinquency Rate on Consumer Loans | Consumer Credit Delinquency |
| DROCLACBS | Delinquency Rate on Other Consumer Loans | Consumer Credit Delinquency |
| DRSFRMACBS | Delinquency Rate on Single-Family Mortgages | Consumer Credit Delinquency |
| UMCSENT | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment | Sentiment |
| MICH | University of Michigan 1-Year Inflation Expectations | Inflation Expectations |
| MICH5 | University of Michigan 5-Year Inflation Expectations | Inflation Expectations |
| MICH_WEB_ICS | University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment: Website | Michigan Survey |
| MICH_WEB_ICC | University of Michigan Current Economic Conditions | Michigan Survey |
| MICH_WEB_ICE | University of Michigan Index of Consumer Expectations | Michigan Survey |
| MICH_WEB_PX1 | University of Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations: Website | Michigan Survey |
| MICH_WEB_PX5 | University of Michigan 5Y Inflation Expectations: Website | Michigan Survey |
| FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGO | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: Overall | Wage Growth |
| FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGJMJST | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: Job Stayer | Wage Growth |
| FRBATLWGT3MMAUMHWGJMJSW | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: Job Switcher | Wage Growth |
| FRBATLWGT3MMAU25PHWGO | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: 25th Percentile | Wage Growth |
| FRBATLWGT3MMAU75PHWGO | Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker: 75th Percentile | Wage Growth |
| CES0500000003 | Average Hourly Earnings: Total Private | Wage Growth |
| ECIWAG | Employment Cost Index: Wages and Salaries | Wage Growth |
| WGSSAMFRBDAL | Dallas Fed Wages and Benefits Index | Wage Growth |
| JTSQUR | JOLTS Quits Rate | Wage Growth |
| IR | Import Price Index: All Imports | Trade Prices |
| IQ | Export Price Index: All Exports | Trade Prices |
| GSG | iShares S&P GSCI Commodity-Indexed Trust | Commodity Context |
| EFFR | Effective Federal Funds Rate | Macro Context |
| FEDFUNDS | Effective Fed Funds Rate | Macro Context |
| GS10 | 10-Year Treasury Yield | Macro Context |
| UNRATE | U-3 Unemployment Rate | Macro Context |
| DCOILWTICO | WTI Crude Oil Price | Commodity Context |
| DHHNGSP | Henry Hub Natural Gas Price | Commodity Context |
| DTWEXBGS | Trade Weighted U.S. Dollar Index | Macro Context |
| USREC | NBER Recession Indicator | Macro Context |