Macro Lens Command Center

Macro Lens

Updated 2026-07-25 18:31. Latest local macro data 2026-07-24. Built as a self-contained PM and chief-economist decision layer with current GDPNow and Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast analytics.

Methodology

How Macro Lens converts the underlying deck data into PM-ready scores, page memos, nowcast diagnostics, and portfolio actions.

How To Read The Deck

Start with the PM Memo for the investable conclusion, then use the individual pages to audit the evidence. The deck is designed so the PM can answer three questions quickly: what is the macro backdrop, what changed, and what portfolio risk is being paid for.

Nowcasting is intentionally separated from the strategic Growth Permission gauge. GDPNow and Cleveland Fed nowcasts are high-frequency tracking tools; they should confirm or challenge the panel scores, not mechanically replace them.

Score Scale And Polarity

Most pages use higher scores to mean more constructive for growth or risk assets. Inflation is the exception: higher means hotter and more restrictive. The PM Memo converts inflation into Inflation Permission before blending it with growth inputs.

Score Zone	Constructive Reading	Restrictive Reading	PM Use
70-100	Strong confirmation from the panel.	For inflation pressure only, this is hot/restrictive.	Increase conviction only when the relevant companion panels agree.
55-70	Supportive but not extreme.	Inflation is elevated enough to cap policy and valuation relief.	Lean into the signal, but require confirmation from the change tables.
45-55	Mixed or neutral.	Mixed inflation pressure.	Keep allocations close to benchmark and wait for direction.
30-45	Soft or restrictive for growth risk.	Inflation pressure is cooling.	Cut risk if labor/credit confirm; add duration only if inflation is also cooling.
0-30	Stress zone.	Disinflationary or low-pressure zone.	Use the risk map and trigger tables before making large allocation changes.

Growth Permission Gauge Methodology

The PM Memo gauge is a weighted aggregation of the page-level scores. The weights are economic-prior weights, not an unconstrained regression: labor, inflation permission, and credit/liquidity receive the largest allocations because they control income durability, policy/valuation permission, and drawdown transmission. Consumer firepower, fiscal, manufacturing, and housing/construction carry meaningful middle weights because they explain why growth can persist beyond surveys. Sentiment, NFIB, and hard real activity are capped confirmation layers. GDPNow is excluded from this gauge and handled on the Nowcasting page. The PM Memo driver map uses the same panel scores and weights, grouped into forward growth trend, policy/fiscal impulse, current activity confirmation, and late-cycle/constraint lines so the reader can see what is moving the aggregate without reading every page first.

Input	Weight	Direction	Why It Has This Weight
Labor Market	19%	Higher is constructive.	Labor is the income and recession-risk anchor. It carries the highest weight because claims, unemployment, payroll breadth, hours, and JOLTS decide whether growth can persist.
Inflation Permission	15%	Computed as 100 minus Inflation Pressure.	Inflation is the policy, duration, and valuation constraint. It sits just below labor because growth is harder to own when inflation pressure is hot.
Credit / Liquidity	15%	Higher is constructive.	Credit and liquidity turn macro slowing into drawdown risk. The weight is elevated because spreads, lending standards, bank credit, reserves, RRP/TGA, M2, and NFCI are the risk-budget governor.
Fiscal Monitor	10%	Higher means a larger additive fiscal contribution to growth.	Fiscal is a real growth driver when the deficit share of GDP, primary deficit, ex-interest outlays, and Treasury interest paid as private-sector income support demand. Funding quality is tracked separately because the same deficit support can become term-premium pressure when issuance, auction demand, foreign absorption, or interest burden deteriorate.
Consumer Firepower	12%	Higher is constructive.	Retail-sales components, household net worth levels, household equity wealth, and S&P 500 rate-of-change capture the wealth-effect support that can keep consumption resilient despite weak sentiment.
Manufacturing Cycle	11%	Higher is constructive after polarity adjustment.	Manufacturing is the capex and goods-cycle bridge. It has more weight than sentiment/NFIB because orders, shipments, and regional Fed surveys lead industrial activity, but less than labor/inflation/credit.
Housing / Construction	7%	Higher is constructive after polarity adjustment.	Housing is the rate-sensitive real-activity bridge. Permits, starts, homes under construction, completions, sales, home prices, and construction spending lift the score when improving; mortgage rates and mortgage spreads are inverted because higher levels restrict affordability and transmission.
Consumer / Sentiment	3%	Higher is constructive.	Consumer evidence confirms whether confidence, income expectations, credit access, and delinquencies support demand. It is capped because it overlaps with labor, inflation, and firepower evidence.
NFIB / Main Street	4%	Higher is constructive after polarity adjustment.	Small-business hiring, capex, pricing, compensation, earnings, inventories, and credit access confirm margin and small-cap/cyclical risk. It is a confirmation layer, not the main growth engine.
Hard Real Activity	4%	Higher is constructive.	Real GDP, real PCE, private investment, and industrial production are realized confirmation. The weight is capped because the data are slower and revised, but it is high enough to stop hard activity from being ignored.

Page-By-Page Scoring

Each page has its own economic question, scoring logic, and portfolio output. The PM Memo rolls these readings together, but the individual page tables remain the audit trail.

Page	Primary Question	Scoring Logic	Decision Output
PM Memo	Does the panel evidence give permission to own growth risk?	Uses the Growth Permission gauge and its weighted inputs. GDPNow is excluded from the gauge.	Portfolio stance, operating orders, disagreement checks, risk map, upside/downside drivers, action map, freshness audit, and change-the-view triggers.
Nowcasting	What is the live quarter saying, and is near-term inflation confirming or conflicting?	Atlanta Fed GDPNow and Cleveland Fed nowcasts are treated as tracking evidence, not as the strategic Growth Permission score.	GDPNow composition, release attribution, component lines, and Cleveland Fed inflation nowcast tables/charts.
FOMC	How is the Fed reaction function framing growth, labor, inflation, and policy risk?	No composite score. The page parses official FOMC statement language, target range, vote, SEP medians, dot-plot distribution, risk-balance tables, and a transparent statement-language hawkishness series versus FRED 1-year expected inflation.	Policy constraint, SEP revisions, dot-plot risk, language/inflation-expectation divergence, and cross-check versus Macro Lens growth, labor, inflation, and credit reads.
Labor Market	Is employment income still strong enough to support growth?	Payroll momentum, slack, claims/layoffs, supply, JOLTS, job quality, wages, productivity, and income are scored within bucket, then bucket scores are averaged.	Labor health, strongest/weakest inputs, recession risk, wage/inflation cross-check, and PM action.
Inflation	Is inflation pressure cooling enough to restore policy and valuation permission?	CPI/PCE levels, 3M/6M impulses, breadth, services/shelter, goods/energy, underlying inflation, pipeline, wages, and expectations create a pressure score. Higher is more restrictive.	Duration tolerance, valuation risk, real-asset hedge need, and the inflation permission input for the PM Memo.
Consumer Firepower	Are retail dollars, household wealth, and the stock-market wealth effect supporting consumption?	Retail-sales components and S&P 500 use growth momentum; household net worth and balance-sheet assets use a level-heavy blend because the stock of wealth itself supports consumption.	Hard-data consumer support, wealth-effect confirmation, and the bridge between weak sentiment and still-growing consumption.
Consumer / Sentiment	Are households able and willing to sustain demand?	Michigan sentiment, personal finances, buying conditions, inflation expectations, NY Fed expectations, savings, income, debt service, and delinquencies are scored by bucket.	Consumer-beta confirmation, stress pockets, discretionary-risk read, and demand durability.
Credit Impulse	Are financing conditions and liquidity plumbing helping or restricting risk assets?	Credit Engine and Liquidity Engine are scored separately, then blended. Credit includes SLOOS, loan growth, spreads, delinquencies, and demand/standards. Liquidity includes Fed balance sheet, reserves, RRP, TGA, M2, and NFCI.	Risk-budget permission, credit beta tolerance, liquidity buffer guidance, and transmission warnings.
Fiscal Monitor	How much is fiscal policy contributing to growth, and is that contribution creating funding stress?	The headline measures additive fiscal contribution, not financing cleanliness. Deficit/GDP, primary-deficit/GDP, ex-interest outlays/GDP, Treasury interest paid/GDP, transfer/defense momentum, payroll receipts, and fiscal thrust raise the growth-contribution score. Interest burden, debt growth, issuance pressure, front-end bill reliance, auctions, and TIC absorption are reported as a separate funding-quality constraint.	Fiscal growth contribution, term-premium risk, Treasury supply absorption, tax-drag read, and how fiscal policy should influence the PM growth gauge.
Manufacturing Cycle	Are goods-cycle demand, new orders, shipments, and regional factory surveys confirming growth?	Census/FRED orders and shipments use outlier-adjusted growth momentum. Dallas, Empire State, and Philly Fed current/future survey balances use level scoring. Prices and unwanted inventories are inverted.	Capex-cycle confirmation, industrial/cyclical beta read, factory inflation/margin risk, and early warning from regional survey breadth.
Housing / Construction	Is the rate-sensitive housing/construction channel adding or subtracting from growth?	Permits, starts, completions, homes under construction, sales, home prices, and construction spending use outlier-adjusted growth momentum. Mortgage rates and the mortgage-rate spread to the 10-year Treasury use level scoring and are inverted because higher levels restrict affordability and housing transmission.	Homebuilder/building-products confirmation, construction labor-income support, affordability warning, and whether construction spending is offsetting rate-sensitive housing weakness.
NFIB / Main Street	Do small businesses confirm the macro read?	The full NFIB packet is polarity-adjusted so supportive inputs raise the score and pressure inputs reduce it. Optimism components, pricing, compensation, capex, hiring, credit, inventories, and earnings are all represented.	Small-cap/cyclical confirmation, margin pressure, sticky-inflation risk, and Main Street demand quality.
Validation Appendix	Has the Growth Permission score historically explained future growth and market risk?	Uses the same panel-derived Growth Permission history, excludes GDPNow, and tests future growth outcomes plus S&P 500 forward return/drawdown regimes.	Governance layer: where the model has evidence, where it is weaker, and how to use score level versus score change.

Transform And Polarity Rules

The deck mixes FRED levels, survey balances, market spreads, inflation impulses, money growth, labor counts, and nowcast estimates. Each series is transformed before scoring so the composite reflects economic meaning rather than raw units.

Rule	Application	Why It Matters
Own-history scoring	Each input is scored against its own available history before being combined.	A series measured in dollars, percentages, claims counts, or survey balances cannot overpower another series solely because of unit scale.
Polarity adjustment	Higher-good series keep their z-score direction; higher-bad series are inverted before the 0-100 contribution is calculated.	Tables can show raw z-scores while the composite still answers the PM question consistently.
Level variables	Financial-stress, unemployment, spreads, inflation expectations, and survey balances use level or level-plus-momentum transformations.	Some variables matter because their level is tight or loose, not because the latest growth rate is high.
Flow variables	Growth, money, credit, wages, and price indexes use YoY, 3M annualized, 6M annualized, or 6M/12M blends depending on the page.	This captures impulse without making the deck a one-month noise machine.
Inflation exception	The Inflation page score is a pressure score: higher is bad. The PM Memo converts it to Inflation Permission by using 100 minus the pressure score.	The deck can discuss inflation honestly while still rolling it into a growth-permission gauge.
Missing data	Unavailable inputs are omitted from the current calculation and bucket weights are effectively rebalanced across available inputs.	A stale or missing source should not mechanically distort the current read.

Nowcast Handling

Nowcasts are used for timing, composition, and disagreement analysis. They are important, but they are not allowed to dominate the strategic growth score unless the slower panels confirm.

Nowcast Element	Treatment	PM Interpretation
FOMC meeting materials	The FOMC page checks the official Fed calendar for the latest statement and related materials. If the meeting date is unchanged and the cache is fresh, the panel keeps the prior parsed package; if a new statement, SEP, transcript, or minutes link appears, the panel refreshes. The statement-language monitor scores meeting-day language versus daily FRED T5YIE. The minutes monitor separately scores delayed FOMC minutes into hawkish and dovish sentence buckets.	Use this as the policy reaction-function layer: it explains whether GDPNow/Cleveland evidence is likely to translate into easing, holding, or tighter policy risk.
Atlanta Fed GDPNow headline	Used on the Nowcasting page only. It is not included in the PM Memo Growth Permission gauge.	Use it to understand current-quarter timing and composition, not to override labor, credit, or inflation permission.
Historical GDP contribution stack	Realized quarterly component contributions come from FRED/BEA history. The final bar is the current Atlanta Fed GDPNow component estimate.	Compare the live quarter against realized cycle history and decide whether the growth mix is demand-led or accounting-led.
GDPNow release attribution	The table is newest first. Component moves compare each update to the prior GDPNow update, including a hidden prior row when needed.	Separate persistent broadening from one-release jumps tied to inventories, trade, or noisy data packages.
Cleveland Fed nowcast	Copied into the Nowcasting page in the same table and chart structure used by the Inflation deck: MoM charts by measure and YoY charts by measure.	Use MoM bars for sequential pressure and YoY lines for trend confirmation.

Chart And Table Conventions

Charts are formatted to make the investment signal readable: gauges keep the full score scale, score histories tighten around their active range, component charts keep separate axes where one series would distort another, and heatmaps use within-series scaling.

Convention	Meaning	Reader Note
Gauges	Gauge needles remain on a 0-100 scale with consistent regime bands.	The gauge is the level; the adjacent history line shows how the score is moving.
Gauge history lines	Non-NFIB score histories use tighter y-axes around the recent range so movement is visible.	The NFIB page keeps its full 0-100 context because it is paired with the official Optimism Index.
Signal chips	Constructive is green, neutral is yellow, restrictive is red.	For inflation, red means hot/restrictive, not a data error.
Heatmaps	Each dataset is scaled to its own history or relevant axis treatment so one volatile input does not wash out the rest.	White or missing cells usually indicate unavailable history, not a zero reading.
Component tables	Latest, raw z, polarity, contribution, and signal columns show both the raw evidence and how it enters the score.	Use contribution for the composite; use raw z-score for historical context.

Decision Rules And Risk Controls

The deck upgrades conviction only when level, change, and breadth agree. A high score with weak breadth, a strong GDPNow print with weak credit, or cooling inflation with labor deterioration all require different portfolio actions.

Decision Rule	Required Evidence	Risk If Ignored
Add economic beta	Growth Permission above neutral, labor stable, credit/liquidity supportive, and GDPNow broadening through PCE or investment.	Chasing a headline nowcast that is led by inventories or trade.
Add duration	Inflation pressure falling, Cleveland core nowcasts cooling, and either growth risk rising or valuation permission improving.	Extending duration into sticky inflation and a still-restrictive reaction function.
Reduce lower-quality beta	Credit/liquidity below neutral, lending standards tightening, spreads widening, or labor deterioration confirming.	Owning credit-sensitive beta as financing conditions become the drawdown channel.
Fade GDPNow headline strength	GDPNow strong but panel scores weak, or growth led by inventories/net exports without PCE, investment, labor, or credit confirmation.	Treating accounting contribution as durable demand.
Resolve panel disagreement	Macro disagreement checks identify whether growth support is being offset by inflation, credit, funding quality, weak sentiment, or stale hard data.	Turning a mixed macro stack into an overconfident one-direction portfolio call.
Upgrade conviction	The page-level memos and the score-attribution tables agree on level, change, and breadth.	Overreacting to one chart while the broader macro stack disagrees.

Data Hygiene And Limits

The deck is an institutional decision tool, not a promise that any single macro series is final. Revisions, stale caches, one-off shocks, and frequency mismatch are handled explicitly so the PM understands when the signal is high conviction and when it is provisional.

Issue	Treatment	PM Implication
Data revisions	FRED, BEA, labor, inflation, and GDP data can revise. The deck should be refreshed before use in a live investment meeting.	Focus on direction, breadth, and confirmation rather than a single unrevised print.
Outliers	Known 2020-style distortions are clipped, separated, or transformed where the page logic requires it.	Charts should show the cycle signal rather than letting crisis-period spikes dominate the scale.
Frequency mixing	Monthly and quarterly inputs are aligned by month-end/month-start convention, with quarterly hard-activity data carried forward only where needed.	Quarterly hard activity is confirmation, not a high-frequency trading signal.
Source caches	The command center reads from the local deck caches and refreshed source files in the Breadth workflow.	Run the deck generator after refreshing the underlying chart decks.
Hard-activity refresh	Macro Lens directly refreshes Real GDP, real PCE, real private investment, industrial production, and the FRED/BEA GDP contribution stack before calculating Hard Real Activity.	The realized hard-data confirmation layer can update when Macro Lens runs, even if no separate hard-activity deck exists.
Panel freshness	The PM Memo includes a panel coverage and freshness audit showing each Growth Permission input, latest score date, age, and active weight coverage.	A strong score with stale major inputs should be treated as provisional until the underlying panel refreshes.
Nowcast freshness	GDPNow and Cleveland Fed nowcast tables carry their update dates where available.	If the as-of date is stale, use the page structure but refresh before making a final call.
FOMC material timing	FOMC statement pages update every meeting, projection materials update only at SEP meetings, and minutes normally lag the decision. The panel keeps separate statement and SEP dates.	Do not treat an old SEP date as stale if the latest meeting was not an SEP meeting; use it as the latest official Fed projection set.

PM Decision Memo

Macro Lens command memo built from the individual panel scores. The growth gauge below is panel-derived and excludes GDPNow; Nowcasting is treated separately as a live timing and composition diagnostic.

Stance: Balanced, selective, and confirmation-dependent Growth Permission 56.2 Labor 49.9 Inflation Permission 52.3 Credit/Liquidity 54.2 Fiscal 79.9 Firepower 55.7 Manufacturing 61.7 Housing 39.9 Consumer 31.0 NFIB 35.7 Hard Activity 39.2 GDPNow 1.7%

Growth Permission56.2

Constructive read; 6.2 pts vs neutral

3M Change4.2

Positive means the macro stack is improving

12M Change3.3

Cycle direction beyond one-release noise

Panel Breadth66.7%

Share of panel scores above neutral

Since-2005 Percentile64%

Latest score versus modern-cycle history

Active Panels10/10

Coverage behind the current gauge

Growth Permission Gauge

Modern-Cycle Growth Permission History

This full-panel chart starts in 2005, uses a coverage-aware score history, and adds recession shading so the current gauge can be judged against prior expansion, slowdown, and stress regimes. The lower panel translates the monthly score level, deterioration, and below-neutral persistence into a model-implied recession probability.

Growth Permission Driver Map

This consolidates the prior component-line view into four decision groups that explain the aggregate score without creating a second scoring system. The chart starts in 2018 and includes recession shading. The top panel is the actual Growth Permission gauge history; the lower panel decomposes the same inputs into forward growth trend, policy/fiscal impulse, current activity confirmation, and late-cycle/constraint groups.

Driver Group	Gauge Weight	Latest	1M Chg	3M Chg	Signal	Included Panels	PM Read
Forward Growth Trend	37%	49.8	-0.6	-2.9	Mixed	Credit / Liquidity, Housing / Construction, Consumer, Consumer Firepower	Forward-sensitive confirmation from financing, housing, household demand, and wealth-effect support.
Policy / Fiscal Impulse	10%	79.9	0.0	5.6	Supportive	Fiscal Monitor	Additive fiscal support to nominal demand, kept separate from funding-quality risks.
Current Activity Confirmation	15%	61.7	6.6	2.1	Supportive	Manufacturing Cycle, Hard Real Activity	Factory-cycle and realized activity confirmation that growth is showing up in the hard data.
Late-Cycle / Constraint	38%	50.9	1.5	8.5	Mixed	Labor Market, Inflation Permission, NFIB / Main Street	Labor durability, inflation permission, and small-business confirmation that decide whether growth is investable.

Environment Memo

Executive PM Thesis

Panel-derived Growth Permission is 56.2 (Constructive); 1M change 2.5 and 3M change 4.2. This score excludes GDPNow and is built from the deck panels.
Labor and inflation permission carry the highest weights. Labor is 49.9 and inflation permission is 52.3, so the portfolio question is not only whether growth exists, but whether income and inflation allow it to be owned.
Credit/liquidity is 54.2. This is the drawdown governor: it decides whether macro weakness becomes a financing problem and whether cyclical exposure deserves a full risk budget.
Fiscal Monitor is 79.9. This panel measures the additive fiscal contribution from deficit/GDP, primary deficits, ex-interest outlays, and Treasury interest paid as private-sector income; funding quality is the separate term-premium risk check.
Consumer Firepower is 55.7. This hard-data panel captures retail-sales breadth, household net worth levels, household equity wealth, and the S&P 500 wealth effect; it is the reason weak sentiment does not automatically mean weak consumption.
Manufacturing Cycle is 61.7. This panel captures new orders, shipments, and regional Fed current/future survey breadth; it decides whether hard goods demand and capex-leading evidence support the growth call.
Housing / Construction is 39.9. This panel captures permits, starts, homes under construction, completions, mortgage affordability, home prices, and construction spending; it is the rate-sensitive real-activity bridge.
Nowcasting remains a timing and composition layer, not the growth gauge. GDPNow is 1.7% for 2026:Q2; latest release move: Net Exports -0.04 pp; read-through: Downside led by Net Exports.
Cleveland Fed July 2026 YoY nowcast as of 2026-07-25: CPI 3.37%, Core CPI 2.52%, PCE 3.63%, Core PCE 3.36%

Environment Memo

Growth Permission Diagnostic

Growth Permission is 56.2 with 1M change 2.5 and 3M change 4.2. The decision question is whether labor, inflation permission, and credit/liquidity are broadening together enough to justify adding economic beta.
Main deteriorating inputs over three months: Consumer Firepower, Manufacturing Cycle; improving inputs: Inflation Permission, Credit / Liquidity, Fiscal Monitor.
The PM read is that the gauge is below neutral but not collapsing: credit/liquidity is helping, while inflation permission, consumer, and NFIB keep the risk budget capped.
Use the nowcast page for timing. Do not upgrade strategic growth exposure until this component chart shows labor, inflation permission, and credit/liquidity moving together.

Growth Gauge Methodology

The gauge is deliberately not GDPNow. It aggregates the actual decision panels using institutional economic-prior weights: Labor 19%, Inflation Permission 15%, Credit/Liquidity 15%, Consumer Firepower 12%, Fiscal Monitor 10%, Manufacturing Cycle 11%, Housing/Construction 7%, Consumer/Sentiment 3%, NFIB/Main Street 4%, and Hard Real Activity 4%. Inflation is inverted because lower inflation pressure gives growth more portfolio permission.

GDPNow is evaluated separately below. That prevents a strong nowcast print from mechanically lifting the strategic growth score when labor, credit, or inflation permission disagree.

Current Macro Operating Orders

The operating orders translate the panel score into immediate portfolio use. They are deliberately separate from GDPNow so the live nowcast can confirm or challenge the strategic score rather than overwrite it.

Decision Layer	Current Order	Evidence	PM Use
Macro posture	Stay balanced; buy confirmation	Growth Permission 56.2, Credit/Liquidity 54.2, Inflation Permission 52.3.	The economy is not breaking, but the growth permission score is not strong enough for broad beta by itself.
Risk budget governor	Size beta to credit and inflation gates	Credit/Liquidity 54.2 and Inflation Permission 52.3.	Growth can be real but still not fully investable when financing conditions or inflation keep the risk budget capped.
Duration / valuation	Duration can be added gradually	Inflation Permission 52.3 and Labor 49.9.	Inflation permission is less restrictive and the cycle is not cracking.
Demand resilience	Respect nominal demand support	Fiscal 79.9, Consumer Firepower 55.7, Manufacturing 61.7, Housing/Construction 39.9.	Fiscal impulse plus household wealth/retail firepower can keep growth firmer than sentiment surveys imply.

Macro Disagreement Checks

These are the places where the deck can look constructive in one layer and restrictive in another. They are the highest-value checks before turning the Growth Permission score into a broad risk call.

Tension	Evidence	Interpretation	Resolution
Growth support vs inflation permission	Growth Permission 56.2 versus Inflation Permission 52.3.	Growth resilience is less investable when inflation still limits policy relief, duration, and multiple expansion.	Inflation Permission above 45 for tactical relief; above 50 for a cleaner broad-risk upgrade.
Fiscal impulse vs funding quality	Fiscal Monitor 79.9; fiscal support is additive to growth but can raise rate and term-premium risk.	Deficits and interest-income flow can support nominal demand while supply/auction/absorption risk caps duration-sensitive beta.	Keep fiscal support in the growth score, but require funding quality and inflation improvement before lifting duration-heavy exposure.
Wealth effect vs sentiment	Consumer Firepower 55.7 versus Consumer/Sentiment 31.0 and NFIB 35.7.	Household assets and retail dollars may explain why spending holds up even when survey confidence and small-business tone are weak.	Stay constructive on consumption only while retail breadth, S&P 500 wealth effect, and balance-sheet levels hold.
Factory cycle vs realized hard activity	Manufacturing Cycle 61.7 versus Hard Real Activity 39.2.	Orders and regional surveys can lead realized activity, but hard data confirmation is still needed before calling a broad goods-cycle upturn.	Upgrade cyclical conviction when orders/shipments improvement flows into IP, real PCE, and investment.
Housing impulse vs rate constraint	Housing / Construction 39.9 versus Inflation Permission 52.3 and Credit/Liquidity 54.2.	Housing can add real activity through permits, starts, pipeline, completions, and construction spending, but high mortgage rates or spreads can stop the improvement from becoming broad investable demand.	Upgrade housing-sensitive risk when permits/starts and construction spending improve while mortgage-rate/spread pressure stops worsening.
GDPNow headline vs panel score	GDPNow 1.7%; latest move Net Exports -0.04 pp; Demand-led contribution 2.87 pp versus volatile contribution -1.50 pp.	A strong nowcast should not override labor, credit, or inflation permission if the composition is inventory/trade-heavy.	Treat GDPNow as confirmation only when PCE, equipment/business investment, and residential contribution broaden.
Labor income vs credit transmission	Labor 49.9 and Credit/Liquidity 54.2.	Labor can keep income durable, but credit decides whether a slowdown turns into drawdown pressure.	Hold cyclical beta only while both labor and credit stay at or above neutral.

Panel Coverage And Freshness Audit

This verifies which panels are currently feeding the Growth Permission gauge and whether any major input is stale or missing. Available panel weights are rebalanced when a panel is unavailable. Macro Lens-native FRED pulls such as hard activity, consumer firepower, manufacturing, housing/construction, and GDP contribution history refresh when this deck is run.

Panel	Weight	Latest Score	As Of	Age	Coverage	Status
Labor Market	19%	49.9	07/01/2026	24 days	19.0%	Fresh
Inflation Permission	15%	52.3	07/01/2026	24 days	15.0%	Fresh
Credit / Liquidity	15%	54.2	06/01/2026	54 days	15.0%	Watch
Consumer Firepower	12%	55.7	07/01/2026	24 days	12.0%	Fresh
Manufacturing Cycle	11%	61.7	07/01/2026	24 days	11.0%	Fresh
Fiscal Monitor	10%	79.9	07/01/2026	24 days	10.0%	Fresh
Housing / Construction	7%	39.9	07/01/2026	24 days	7.0%	Fresh
NFIB / Main Street	4%	35.7	06/01/2026	54 days	4.0%	Watch
Hard Real Activity	4%	39.2	06/01/2026	54 days	4.0%	Watch
Consumer	3%	31.0	06/01/2026	54 days	3.0%	Watch

Growth Gauge Attribution

Weights are intentionally concentrated in labor, inflation permission, and credit/liquidity because income durability, policy/valuation constraints, and financing conditions dominate whether growth can be owned. Fiscal, consumer firepower, manufacturing, and housing/construction are the middle-weight growth bridge; sentiment, NFIB, and hard real activity are capped confirmation layers.

Input	Weight	Latest	1M Chg	3M Chg	Contribution	PM Role
Labor Market	19%	49.9	0.1	-0.1	9.5	Income engine and recession tripwire.
Inflation Permission	15%	52.3	-0.4	15.8	7.8	Lower inflation pressure gives growth room to translate into risk assets.
Credit / Liquidity	15%	54.2	-0.7	5.2	8.1	Financing permission and drawdown-risk governor.
Fiscal Monitor	10%	79.9	0.0	5.6	8.0	Additive fiscal contribution to growth: deficit/GDP, primary-deficit/GDP, ex-interest outlays/GDP, and interest-income flow.
Consumer Firepower	12%	55.7	-5.2	-11.4	6.7	Retail dollars, household net worth levels, S&P 500 wealth effect, and asset buffers supporting consumption.
Manufacturing Cycle	11%	61.7	0.9	-3.9	6.8	New orders, shipments, and regional Fed survey breadth bridge hard activity to capex-cycle confirmation.
Housing / Construction	7%	39.9	7.0	1.9	2.8	Rate-sensitive real-activity bridge: permits, starts, pipeline, completions, mortgage affordability, home prices, and construction spending.
Consumer	3%	31.0	4.6	-1.1	0.9	Household sentiment, credit access, income expectations, and delinquency layer.
NFIB / Main Street	4%	35.7	2.5	5.9	1.4	Small-business margins, hiring, pricing, capex, and credit access.
Hard Real Activity	4%	39.2	-6.0	-2.7	1.6	Real GDP growth, real PCE, private-investment contribution, and industrial production confirmation.

Recent Growth-Gauge Change Drivers

This table is sorted by weighted three-month impact, so it shows what is actually moving the gauge rather than merely what has the highest current score.

Input	Latest	1M Chg	3M Chg	Weighted 3M Impact	Direction	PM Read
Inflation Permission	52.3	-0.4	15.8	2.4	Improving	Lower inflation pressure gives growth room to translate into risk assets.
Consumer Firepower	55.7	-5.2	-11.4	-1.4	Deteriorating	Retail dollars, household net worth levels, S&P 500 wealth effect, and asset buffers supporting consumption.
Credit / Liquidity	54.2	-0.7	5.2	0.8	Improving	Financing permission and drawdown-risk governor.
Fiscal Monitor	79.9	0.0	5.6	0.6	Improving	Additive fiscal contribution to growth: deficit/GDP, primary-deficit/GDP, ex-interest outlays/GDP, and interest-income flow.
Manufacturing Cycle	61.7	0.9	-3.9	-0.4	Deteriorating	New orders, shipments, and regional Fed survey breadth bridge hard activity to capex-cycle confirmation.
NFIB / Main Street	35.7	2.5	5.9	0.2	Improving	Small-business margins, hiring, pricing, capex, and credit access.
Housing / Construction	39.9	7.0	1.9	0.1	Stable	Rate-sensitive real-activity bridge: permits, starts, pipeline, completions, mortgage affordability, home prices, and construction spending.
Hard Real Activity	39.2	-6.0	-2.7	-0.1	Stable	Real GDP growth, real PCE, private-investment contribution, and industrial production confirmation.
Consumer	31.0	4.6	-1.1	-0.0	Stable	Household sentiment, credit access, income expectations, and delinquency layer.
Labor Market	49.9	0.1	-0.1	-0.0	Stable	Income engine and recession tripwire.

Panel Read-Through

Pillar	Read	What Changed	Why It Matters	PM Action
Growth Permission	56.2 / Mixed	1M 2.5, 3M 4.2. This is built from panel scores, not GDPNow.	This is the risk-budget growth gate. GDPNow can inform timing, but this gauge decides whether the rest of the macro stack allows growth exposure.	Use as the top-down permission score for cyclicals, credit beta, and equity beta.
Labor	49.9 / Mixed	Payroll impulse, slack, claims, labor supply, JOLTS demand, job quality, wages, productivity, and unit labor costs.	Labor is the highest-weight growth input because income durability is what turns macro activity into consumption and earnings resilience.	Upgrade growth only when claims, payroll breadth, unemployment, hours, and wages do not contradict the hard-data read.
Inflation Permission	52.3 / Mixed	CPI/PCE impulse, breadth, components, expectations, pipeline pressure, wages, and policy context.	Inflation carries a high weight because hot inflation prevents growth from being monetized through duration, multiples, and policy support.	If inflation permission weakens, keep growth exposure shorter-duration, quality-biased, and less valuation-sensitive.
Credit / Liquidity	54.2 / Mixed	HY OAS, NFCI, yield curve, lending standards, and bank credit.	Credit determines whether growth can be financed and whether macro weakness becomes a drawdown event.	Do not chase cyclical beta when credit/liquidity is below neutral, even if GDPNow is firm.
Fiscal Monitor	79.9 / Constructive	Fiscal growth contribution 79.9 and funding quality 31.6; headline score measures additive deficit/GDP, primary deficit, ex-interest outlays, and interest-income flow, while funding quality is the separate rates/term-premium warning.	Fiscal can explain why growth keeps running even when private-cycle surveys look weak. The headline score measures the additive contribution from deficit/GDP, primary deficit support, ex-interest outlays, and Treasury interest paid into the private sector.	Let the fiscal contribution lift growth conviction; use funding quality as the separate rates, supply, and term-premium risk check.
Consumer Firepower	55.7 / Mixed	Retail-sales components, household asset values, net worth levels, corporate equity/mutual-fund wealth, and S&P 500 momentum are summarized in the Consumer Firepower page.	This is the hard-data consumer support layer. It explains how a soft sentiment score can coexist with continued spending if wealth and retail-dollar evidence are firm.	Let this panel lift growth conviction when real retail, discretionary categories, household wealth levels, and S&P 500 momentum confirm together.
Manufacturing	61.7 / Mixed	Manufacturers' new orders, shipments, and regional Fed current/future survey breadth.	Manufacturing is the capex and goods-cycle bridge. Orders and shipments show the hard-data impulse; regional Fed surveys show whether the next leg is broadening or fading.	Use as confirmation for industrials, capex supply chains, transports, semis/equipment, and lower-quality cyclicals when credit and inflation permission agree.
Housing / Construction	39.9 / Deteriorating	Permits, starts, homes under construction, completions, sales, mortgage rates/spreads, home prices, and construction spending are summarized in the Housing / Construction page.	Housing is the cleanest rate-sensitive real-activity bridge. It shows whether policy restraint is still blocking a major cyclical sector or whether construction activity is adding growth support.	Use as confirmation for homebuilders, building products, banks, materials, construction labor income, and consumer durables when affordability and credit do not disagree.
Consumer	31.0 / Deteriorating	Michigan sentiment, NY Fed expectations, credit access, income, saving, and delinquency channels are summarized in the Consumer page.	Consumer has a smaller weight than labor/inflation because it is partly psychological and can lag prices, but it catches household stress and confidence.	Use as confirmation for discretionary beta and lower-quality consumer credit exposure.
NFIB / Main Street	35.7 / Deteriorating	Optimism, hiring plans, capex, compensation, pricing plans, and margin squeeze.	NFIB has a smaller weight because it is survey-based, but it is valuable for small caps, wage/pricing stickiness, margins, capex, and credit access.	Use as the small-cap/cyclical confirmation layer rather than the top-level growth call.
Hard Real Activity	39.2 / Deteriorating	Real GDP, real PCE, private investment, and industrial production score the realized activity baseline.	Low weight because it is slower-moving and partly revised, but it anchors the survey and financial-condition panels.	Use to validate whether soft-data swings are actually showing up in production and real demand.

Nowcast Diagnostics: What Changed

Nowcasting explains the live quarter and the inflation near-term path. It does not set the Growth Permission gauge; it tells the PM whether the latest data are confirming, contradicting, or moving ahead of the broader panel scores.

Nowcast Question	Current Evidence	Interpretation	PM Use
What changed in GDPNow?	1.7% for 2026:Q2; latest revision -0.06 pp; component move Net Exports -0.04 pp.	Downside led by Net Exports.	Use the release move for timing, not as the whole growth call.
What is carrying the estimate?	PCE 1.67 pp; Business Investment 1.13 pp; Government 0.31 pp	Demand-led contribution 2.87 pp versus volatile contribution -1.50 pp.	Demand-led PCE/business investment deserves more conviction than inventory or trade-led arithmetic.
Does the nowcast agree with the panels?	Disagreement: panels still allow growth risk, but current-quarter GDPNow is losing momentum.	Growth permission score is 56.2 while GDPNow is 1.7%.	Increase beta only when nowcast strength and the panel-derived growth gauge confirm each other.
Does inflation allow the growth read?	Cleveland Fed July 2026 YoY nowcast as of 2026-07-25: CPI 3.37%, Core CPI 2.52%, PCE 3.63%, Core PCE 3.36%	Cleveland nowcasts are the near-term inflation permission check against the broader Inflation page.	Firm GDPNow plus sticky Cleveland nowcasts favors selective cyclicals/real assets over broad duration-sensitive beta.

Upside And Downside Driver Map

Driver	Evidence	Why It Matters	PM Translation
Upside: Labor Holds	Labor has the largest weight at 19%; current score 49.9.	If labor holds, household income can absorb slower sentiment and keep nominal activity from cracking.	Supports selective equity beta and quality cyclicals, especially if credit remains neutral or better.
Upside: Inflation Permission Improves	Inflation permission is 15% of the gauge; current score 52.3.	Cooling inflation increases the chance that growth weakness can be cushioned by rates and that duration/multiples can work.	Duration can be added more confidently and long-duration equity risk becomes less punitive.
Upside: GDPNow Broadens	Demand-led contribution 2.87 pp versus volatile contribution -1.50 pp.	Broadening across PCE and investment is more investable than inventories/trade arithmetic.	Use demand-led broadening as the trigger to add cyclicals rather than simply chasing the headline GDPNow estimate.
Upside: Fiscal Impulse Supports Demand	Fiscal Monitor score 79.9 has a 10% Growth Permission weight.	A wider deficit share of GDP, wider primary deficit, stronger ex-interest outlays, and rising Treasury interest paid to private holders can explain why growth remains firmer than surveys imply.	Let fiscal support lift the growth read when deficit support and interest-income flow are strong; use funding quality to decide how much rates and duration risk need to be hedged.
Upside: Manufacturing Orders Confirm	Manufacturing Cycle score 61.7 has a 11% Growth Permission weight and sits above Consumer/Sentiment and NFIB in the hierarchy.	New orders and shipments are the hard goods/capex bridge. When they improve with regional future demand, the growth call becomes less dependent on services and wealth effect alone.	Add conviction to industrials, capex beneficiaries, transports, semis/equipment, and selective cyclicals when credit and inflation permission agree.
Upside: Housing And Construction Broaden	Housing / Construction score 39.9 has a 7% Growth Permission weight, above the pure sentiment confirmation layers.	Permits, starts, under-construction pipeline, completions, and construction spending translate rates and household demand into real activity, jobs, materials demand, and local income.	Add conviction to housing-sensitive cyclicals only when activity improves without mortgage-rate/spread pressure worsening.
Upside: Wealth Effect Supports Consumption	Consumer Firepower score 55.7 has a 12% Growth Permission weight, larger than sentiment and NFIB confirmation layers.	Rising household net worth and S&P 500 wealth effects can keep consumption and nominal growth supported even when confidence surveys are soft.	Do not fade consumer or growth beta solely on weak sentiment if retail breadth and wealth-effect inputs remain constructive.
Downside: Credit/Liquidity Breaks	Credit/liquidity score 54.2; this is 15% of the growth gauge and the risk-budget governor.	Credit weakness can turn a mild slowdown into a drawdown and can invalidate a firm GDPNow print.	Reduce lower-quality credit beta and small-cap/cyclical exposure if credit deteriorates below neutral.
Downside: Deficit Support Turns Into Rate Pressure	Fiscal Monitor embeds deficit/GDP, primary deficit impulse, interest-income flow, interest burden, debt growth, issuance, bid-to-cover, and TIC absorption; current score 79.9.	The same fiscal impulse that supports nominal activity can become a valuation headwind if markets must absorb more supply at weaker auction demand or with less foreign sponsorship.	Cap duration-sensitive beta and watch term-premium/rates if funding-quality components weaken while inflation permission is low.
Downside: Factory Cycle Narrows	Manufacturing Cycle 61.7 cross-checks orders, shipments, regional future demand, price pressure, and inventories.	A weak manufacturing panel means growth is more dependent on services, government, inventories, or wealth effect and less supported by capex-leading demand.	Fade industrial/cyclical strength if orders and shipments weaken while prices or unwanted inventories rise.
Downside: Inflation Stays Sticky While Growth Slows	Cleveland Fed July 2026 YoY nowcast as of 2026-07-25: CPI 3.37%, Core CPI 2.52%, PCE 3.63%, Core PCE 3.36%	This is the stagflationary mix: growth beta loses support while duration does not fully hedge.	Favor quality cash flows, real assets where appropriate, and avoid broad duration-sensitive beta.
Downside: Consumer/NFIB Confirm Margin Stress	Consumer 31.0 and NFIB 35.7 are lower-weight but high-signal confirmation layers.	They reveal whether household and small-business stress are turning a macro slowdown into earnings pressure.	Keep small-cap and consumer discretionary exposure selective until these panels confirm improvement.

Where Risk Lies

Risk	Current Evidence	Portfolio Damage	Watch Trigger
Inflation Permission Fails	Inflation permission 52.3; Cleveland Fed July 2026 YoY nowcast as of 2026-07-25: CPI 3.37%, Core CPI 2.52%, PCE 3.63%, Core PCE 3.36%	Duration, long-duration equities, and multiple expansion are most exposed. Growth can be real but still not investable at the index level if inflation keeps policy tight.	Cleveland core CPI/core PCE, CPI breadth, wage pressure, breakevens, oil, and NY Fed/Michigan expectations.
Credit Transmission Tightens	Credit/liquidity 54.2 with credit impulse, spreads, SLOOS, reserves, RRP/TGA, M2, and NFCI embedded.	Lower-quality credit, small caps, cyclicals, and levered equity factors lose permission before headline growth breaks.	HY/IG OAS, SLOOS standards and demand, bank credit growth, delinquencies, reserves, and NFCI.
Labor Inflection	Labor score 49.9 is the largest growth-gauge input.	Consumer durability and earnings resilience are at risk if claims, hours, unemployment, and payroll breadth weaken together.	Initial/continuing claims, unemployment and U-6 drift, hours/overtime, payroll breadth, JOLTS openings/quit rate.
GDPNow Quality Is Low	Current leaders: PCE 1.67 pp; Business Investment 1.13 pp; Government 0.31 pp. Demand-led contribution 2.87 pp versus volatile contribution -1.50 pp. Latest release read: Downside led by Net Exports..	Inventory/trade-led growth can reverse quickly and should not justify broad beta without PCE/business investment confirmation.	PCE contribution, equipment/business investment, residential investment, inventories, net exports, and release attribution.
Fiscal Support Becomes Funding Stress	Fiscal Monitor 79.9; Fiscal growth contribution 79.9 and funding quality 31.6; headline score measures additive deficit/GDP, primary deficit, ex-interest outlays, and interest-income flow, while funding quality is the separate rates/term-premium warning.	Deficit support and gross interest paid can keep nominal income resilient, but if they require heavy issuance, weak auctions, or poor foreign absorption, the market read becomes term-premium and discount-rate pressure.	Primary deficit impulse, ex-interest outlays, interest/receipts, Treasury issuance mix, bid-to-cover, foreign Treasury net buying/selling, and customs/tax receipts.
Manufacturing Orders Roll Over	Manufacturing Cycle 61.7 captures new orders, shipments, regional Fed current/future surveys, prices, inventories, and backlog evidence.	Industrials, capex supply chains, transports, semis/equipment, cyclicals, and lower-quality beta can lose earnings support before broad GDP rolls over.	Core capex orders ex aircraft, durable orders ex transportation, shipments, Dallas/Empire/Philly new orders, future new orders, prices paid, and inventories.
Housing Stays Rate-Constrained	Housing / Construction 39.9 captures permits, starts, pipeline, completions, sales, mortgage rates/spreads, prices, and construction spending.	Homebuilders, building products, banks, materials, consumer durables, and local labor income can lose support if mortgage-rate pressure blocks the cycle.	Mortgage rate, mortgage spread to 10Y, permits, starts, under-construction pipeline, completions, residential construction spending, and home sales.
Wealth Effect Reverses	Consumer Firepower 55.7 captures retail components, household net worth levels, equity/mutual-fund wealth, and S&P 500 momentum.	Consumer resilience can fade quickly if equity-market wealth, financial assets, or big-ticket retail weaken while sentiment remains soft.	S&P 500 rate of change, household equities/mutual funds, net worth, real retail sales, autos, furniture, electronics, restaurants, and nonstore retail.
Household Stress Builds Under The Surface	Consumer score 31.0 carries a smaller but important confirmation weight.	Discretionary, lower-income consumer credit, and lower-quality cyclicals are vulnerable if sentiment, income, savings, and delinquencies deteriorate.	Michigan personal finances, buying conditions, NY Fed credit rejection, savings rate, debt service, credit-card/auto delinquencies.
Main Street Margins Stay Pressured	NFIB score 35.7 tracks small-business capex, hiring, pricing, compensation, inventories, and earnings.	Small caps can lag if wage/pricing pressure and weak earnings trends offset demand improvement.	NFIB earnings trends, capex plans, hiring plans, compensation plans, price plans, and credit conditions.

Portfolio Action Map

Sleeve	Current Action	Why	Trigger
Equity Beta	Neutral / quality-biased	Growth permission 56.2, credit 54.2, inflation permission 52.3.	Upgrade when labor and credit confirm GDPNow; downgrade if inflation permission or credit breaks.
Cyclicals / Small Caps	Barbell quality/value	Manufacturing 61.7 checks orders/shipments; NFIB 35.7 confirms Main Street margins and capex.	Upgrade on manufacturing new orders/shipments, NFIB earnings/capex/hiring improvement, and demand-led GDPNow.
Duration	Keep tactical	Inflation permission 52.3 is the first gate; Fiscal Monitor 79.9 measures fiscal growth contribution while funding quality checks supply/rate pressure.	Extend when Cleveland core CPI/PCE and inflation breadth cool together and fiscal funding quality is not deteriorating.
Fiscal / Rates	Use as growth support	Fiscal Monitor 79.9 measures deficit-driven demand support and Treasury interest paid as income; funding pressure, issuance, auctions, and foreign absorption are the separate rates constraint.	Upgrade the growth read when deficit/GDP, primary deficits, ex-interest outlays, and interest-income flow support demand; hedge with rates discipline if auction/TIC quality deteriorates.
Credit Beta	Quality carry	Credit/liquidity is the financing channel and drawdown governor.	Cut if spreads, SLOOS standards, bank credit, and financial conditions deteriorate together.
Defensives / Quality	Keep ballast	Labor 49.9 still carries the largest growth-gauge weight.	Add defensives if claims trend higher, payroll breadth softens, or unemployment pressure rises.
Cash / Liquidity	Hold dry powder	Panel disagreement argues for optionality around the next GDPNow, CPI/PCE, payroll, credit, and fiscal-funding updates.	Deploy when growth permission, credit, and inflation permission all move above neutral.

Change-The-View Triggers

Decision	Evidence Needed	Action
Add Cyclical Risk	Growth Permission above 58, credit/liquidity above neutral, labor stable, manufacturing orders/shipments confirming, and GDPNow broadening through PCE/business investment.	Increase equity beta, cyclicals, and selective credit carry.
Add Duration	Inflation Permission improves, Cleveland core nowcasts cool, CPI/PCE impulse softens, and labor/credit deterioration raises hedge value.	Extend duration and tolerate more valuation-sensitive equity exposure.
Cut Lower-Quality Beta	Credit/liquidity below 45, spreads widening, lending standards tightening, or bank credit/M2 weakening.	Raise quality, reduce lower-quality credit, small caps, and levered cyclicals.
Shift Defensive	Labor score rolls over, claims rise, unemployment pressure builds, or consumer/NFIB stress confirms demand deterioration.	Increase defensives, quality balance sheets, cash optionality, and reduce earnings-cyclical exposure.
Fade GDPNow Headline	GDPNow strength led by inventories/net exports while Growth Permission, credit, or labor fails to confirm.	Treat the nowcast as accounting noise and wait for demand-led confirmation.

Nowcasting

Live growth and inflation nowcast layer for PM risk budgeting. GDPNow defines current-quarter growth composition; Cleveland Fed defines the near-term inflation check; the cross-check table translates both into portfolio permission or constraint.

GDPNow 1.7% Quarter 2026:Q2 Next GDPNow July 27, 2026 Cleveland 2026-07-25

Environment Memo

Nowcasting PM Analysis

Atlanta Fed GDPNow is 1.7% for 2026:Q2; latest headline revision is -0.06 pp. The largest current contributors are PCE: 1.67 pp; Business Investment: 1.13 pp; Government: 0.31 pp.
Growth quality is highest when PCE and private investment carry the estimate. Inventories and net exports are useful for arithmetic, but receive lower portfolio conviction because they reverse quickly.
Cleveland Fed July 2026 YoY nowcast as of 2026-07-25: CPI 3.37%, Core CPI 2.52%, PCE 3.63%, Core PCE 3.36%
PM translation: use GDPNow as the live growth tracker, Cleveland Fed as the inflation-nowcast check, and then require Labor, Credit/Liquidity, Consumer, and NFIB confirmation before converting the nowcast into a durable portfolio stance.

Nowcasting Methodology

GDPNow is treated as a current-quarter tracking estimate, not a standalone cycle call. The page separates the headline growth estimate, historical GDP context, component quality, release revisions, and Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasts.

Realized GDP contribution bars come from FRED/BEA history. The final stacked bar is the current Atlanta Fed GDPNow component stack. Component cards are ordered by latest contribution so the PM sees what is carrying the estimate first.

Cleveland Fed CPI/Core CPI/PCE/Core PCE nowcasts are copied into this page as the inflation-nowcast cross-check; the Inflation page keeps the same suite for its full inflation workflow.

Nowcast-To-Portfolio Cross-Check

This replaces the broad macro clock on this page: each nowcast read is translated directly into portfolio permission, constraint, or disagreement risk.

Read-Through	Current Evidence	Interpretation	PM Action
Growth Quality	GDPNow is 1.7% for 2026:Q2; top driver is PCE.	Demand-led contribution is 2.87 pp versus volatile contribution of -1.50 pp.	Treat PCE/business-investment strength as investable; discount inventory/trade-led strength until confirmed by final demand.
Inflation Permission	July 2026 as of 2026-07-25: CPI 3.37%, Core CPI 2.52%, PCE 3.63%, Core PCE 3.36%	Inflation panel read is Mixed.	Let growth support cyclicals only if Cleveland/core inflation does not argue for renewed policy restraint.
Transmission Check	Labor is Mixed; Credit/Liquidity is Mixed.	Labor decides income durability; credit decides whether growth can be financed without raising drawdown risk.	Increase risk budget only when nowcast strength is confirmed by labor income and credit availability.
Disagreement Risk	GDPNow can be strong while inflation or credit is restrictive.	That mix favors selective cyclicals/real assets over broad duration-sensitive beta.	When the panels disagree, reduce position size and wait for release attribution or panel confirmation.

Nowcasting Decision Questions

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
Is the growth nowcast investable?	GDPNow is 1.7%; demand-led contribution is 2.87 pp versus volatile contribution of -1.50 pp.	PCE, nonresidential investment, and residential investment carry higher signal than inventories and net exports.	Add cyclical beta only when growth is demand-led and Credit/Liquidity is not deteriorating.
Does inflation allow the growth read to matter?	Inflation score is Mixed.	Cleveland Fed nowcast suite plus realized Inflation page pressure score.	Strong GDPNow with sticky Cleveland nowcasts supports cyclicals/real assets more than duration-sensitive beta.
Are the broader panels confirming?	Labor is Mixed; Credit is Mixed.	Labor income and Credit/Liquidity decide whether nowcast strength can transmit into earnings and risk appetite.	Treat GDPNow as tactical unless Labor and Credit/Liquidity confirm the same direction.
What would change the view?	A positive update led by PCE/business investment improves conviction; a positive update led only by inventories/trade does not.	Release attribution and component contribution lines show whether revisions are broadening or narrowing.	Use the attribution table to separate investable growth from accounting noise.

Atlanta Fed GDPNow

Current GDPNow Component Attribution

This table translates the current Atlanta Fed component stack into decision language: contribution size, latest revision, share of the headline estimate, and whether the component is demand-led or volatile.

Component	Contribution	Since Prior Update	Share Of GDPNow	Quality	Signal
PCE	1.67 pp	-0.01 pp	99%	Demand-led	Constructive
Business Investment	1.13 pp	-0.00 pp	67%	Demand-led	Constructive
Government	0.31 pp	+0.00 pp	19%	Policy / public demand	Constructive
Residential Investment	0.07 pp	+0.01 pp	4%	Demand-led	Neutral
Inventories	-0.15 pp	-0.01 pp	-9%	Volatile	Neutral
Net Exports	-1.35 pp	-0.04 pp	-80%	Volatile	Restrictive

GDPNow Release Attribution

The latest update table separates noisy release jumps from persistent growth broadening or narrowing. Component moves show what changed; PM read-through translates whether the update is investable growth or accounting noise.

Update	GDPNow Level	Revision	Component Move	Release Package	PM Read-Through
2026-07-17	1.7%	-0.06 pp	Net Exports -0.04 pp	n/a	Downside led by Net Exports.
2026-07-16	1.7%	0.34 pp	PCE 0.36 pp	Retail sales + inventories	Upside led by PCE.
2026-07-15	1.4%	0.04 pp	Inventories 0.03 pp	Producer Price Index	Noise: headline little changed.
2026-07-14	1.4%	0.08 pp	Inventories 0.07 pp	Consumer Price Index	Upside led by Inventories.
2026-07-13	1.3%	0.02 pp	Government 0.02 pp	Monthly Treasury Statement	Noise: headline little changed.
2026-07-09	1.3%	-0.00 pp	Residential Investment 0.00 pp	Existing-home sales	Noise: headline little changed.
2026-07-08	1.3%	-0.10 pp	Inventories -0.09 pp	Wholesale trade	Downside led by Inventories.
2026-07-07	1.4%	0.22 pp	Net Exports 0.31 pp	International trade (Full report)	Upside led by Net Exports.
2026-07-06	1.1%	-0.00 pp	PCE -0.00 pp	ISM Services	Noise: headline little changed.
2026-07-02	1.1%	-0.05 pp	Residential Investment -0.03 pp	Employment situation, M3-2 Manufacturing (Full report)	Downside led by Residential Investment.

Real GDP With GDPNow Forecast

Realized real GDP growth is shown as the historical line. The Atlanta Fed GDPNow estimate is a single current-quarter forecast marker rather than an update-path continuation.

Historical GDP Contribution Stack + Current GDPNow Estimate

Realized quarterly contribution bars come from FRED/BEA history. The final stacked bar is the current Atlanta Fed GDPNow component estimate, so the PM can compare the live quarter to prior realized growth composition.

GDPNow Component Lines

Latest1.68 ppsince prior update -0.06 pp

Latest1.67 ppsince prior update -0.01 pp

Latest1.13 ppsince prior update -0.00 pp

Latest0.31 ppsince prior update 0.00 pp

Latest0.07 ppsince prior update 0.01 pp

Latest-0.15 ppsince prior update -0.01 pp

Latest-1.35 ppsince prior update -0.04 pp

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast

Current Cleveland Fed nowcast values joined to CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE histories. Last nowcast refresh: 2026-07-25.

Inflation, Month-over-Month Percent Change

Cleveland Fed nowcast table, refreshed from the public nowcasting page when the local cache is stale.

Month	CPI	Core CPI	PCE	Core PCE	Updated
July 2026	0.04%	0.21%	0.16%	0.27%	07/24
June 2026	-0.42% actual	-0.02% actual	-0.12%	0.19%	07/24

Inflation, Year-over-Year Percent Change

Cleveland Fed nowcast table, shown in the same monthly format as the source page.

Month	CPI	Core CPI	PCE	Core PCE	Updated
July 2026	3.37%	2.52%	3.63%	3.36%	07/24
June 2026	3.46% actual	2.57% actual	3.65%	3.33%	07/24

CPI MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

Core CPI MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

PCE MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

Core PCE MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

CPI YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

Core CPI YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

PCE YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

Core PCE YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

FOMC

Federal Reserve reaction-function monitor: latest policy action, statement language, SEP macro projections, dot plot distribution, risk balance, and Macro Lens cross-check.

Meeting June 17, 2026 SEP June 17, 2026 Target 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent Vote 12-0

FOMC Policy Reaction Function

FOMC Decision Brief

This panel is sourced from official Federal Reserve meeting materials. It refreshes when a new statement, SEP, or related meeting material is detected; otherwise it keeps the prior parsed meeting package.

MeetingJune 17, 2026fresh

DecisionHoldRestrictive hold

Target Range3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percentvote 12-0

SEPJune 17, 2026

TranscriptLinkedpress conference

Fed Language NLP Monitor

This is a transparent statement-language model, not a black-box forecast. It scores official FOMC statements for inflation hawkishness versus growth/labor dovishness, normalizes the score over the recent communication regime, and plots it against the daily FRED 5-year breakeven inflation series.

Latest Statement06/17/2026fresh

Language Hawkishness2.7recent-window z

5Y Breakeven Inflation2.24%FRED T5YIE through 07/24/2026

Latest language drivers: inflation remains elevated +3.0; policy action +0.4. Use this as a policy-communication constraint, not as a standalone trading signal or Growth Permission input.

Fed Minutes Policy Sentiment

This is separate from the statement-language chart above. The statement chart reads the meeting-day decision text; this minutes chart reads the delayed committee discussion and separates hawkish versus dovish sentence pressure.

Latest Minutes06/17/2026fresh

Minutes Sentiment5.7hawkish versus recent minutes

Hawkish Sentence Score14.0per 100 minutes sentences

Dovish Sentence Score10.4per 100 minutes sentences

Latest minutes driver: Participants generally assessed that information received over the intermeeting period suggested that upside risks to price stability remained elevated while downside risks to achieving maximum employment had moderated a bit. Use this as a reaction-function nuance check because minutes lag the meeting decision.

Environment Memo

FOMC Policy Analysis

Latest FOMC decision is Hold with target range 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent and vote 12-0.
Latest SEP is June 17, 2026: 2026 GDP median 2.2%, PCE inflation 3.6%, and fed funds 3.8%.
Macro Lens cross-check: PM Memo Growth Permission gauge is 56.2, Inflation Pressure is 47.7, and Credit/Liquidity is 54.2.
PM translation: FOMC is a policy reaction-function constraint. It should confirm or challenge the nowcast read, not replace GDPNow composition, Cleveland nowcasts, labor, or credit evidence.
Press-conference transcript link is available in the Fed materials cache.

FOMC Methodology

The statement supplies the policy action, target range, vote, and key language. SEP meetings add medians, dot-plot distribution, and participant risk-balance tables. Non-SEP meetings carry forward the latest SEP and clearly show the SEP as-of date.

The Fed Language NLP monitor is a transparent phrase model on official FOMC statements, normalized over the recent communication regime and plotted against daily FRED T5YIE 5-year breakeven inflation. The Fed Minutes monitor separately parses delayed meeting minutes into hawkish and dovish sentence buckets. Both are communication-constraint diagnostics, not Growth Permission inputs.

FOMC Statement Language And PM Translation

Short official-language snippets are mapped to portfolio interpretation so the reader sees why the statement matters.

Topic	Fed Language	PM Translation
Policy action	"The Committee decided to maintain the target range for the federal funds rate at 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent,..."	Policy is being held restrictive if the range is unchanged while inflation is still elevated.
Growth	"Economic activity is expanding at a solid pace despite elevated uncertainty that owes, in part, to the conflict..."	Growth language sets the Fed's tolerance for keeping policy tight while activity remains resilient.
Labor	"Job gains have kept pace with the workforce, and the unemployment rate has changed little."	Labor stability reduces urgency for easing; labor deterioration would change the reaction function quickly.
Inflation	"Inflation remains elevated relative to the Committee's 2 percent goal, in part reflecting supply shocks that have driven..."	Inflation language is the main constraint on duration, valuation expansion, and broad beta chasing.
Liquidity / implementation	"The Committee reaffirmed its policy of maintaining ample reserves in the banking system."	Balance-sheet implementation language is a liquidity plumbing cross-check, not a growth score input.

SEP Macro Median Paths

SEP Real GDP Median Path

Growth path; higher is supportive if inflation and credit allow.

SEP Unemployment Median Path

Labor slack path; higher unemployment raises slowdown risk.

SEP PCE Inflation Median Path

Headline inflation path; higher keeps policy restrictive.

SEP Core PCE Inflation Median Path

Core inflation path; cleaner policy constraint than headline.

Fed Funds Policy Path

The policy-rate median and prior SEP show whether the reaction function moved tighter or easier.

Dot Plot Distribution

Bubble size is the number of participants at each projected policy-rate level.

SEP Risk Balance

Participant risk skews show whether the Fed sees downside/upside asymmetry around growth, unemployment, and inflation projections.

FOMC Source Discipline

The panel distinguishes material types because they update on different schedules. The statement is every FOMC meeting; SEP projections and dot plots are only SEP meetings; minutes lag the decision.

Material	Current Source Date	Use
Statement	June 17, 2026	Policy action, target range, vote, and key language.
SEP / dot plot	June 17, 2026	Fed macro path, risk balance, and expected policy-rate distribution.
Minutes	June 17, 2026	Delayed governance detail; useful for nuance, not live nowcasting.

SEP Median Projection Matrix

Current median projections are compared with the prior SEP in one compact grid, so the reader can scan the full Fed macro path without a long repeated list.

Each cell shows the current SEP median; the small pill shows the revision versus March SEP.

Measure	2026	2027	2028	Longer run	PM Read
Real GDP Growth path	2.2% -0.2 pp	2.3% no change	2.2% +0.1 pp	2.0% no change	Higher supports cyclical growth if inflation and credit allow.
Unemployment Rate Labor slack	4.3% -0.1 pp	4.3% no change	4.2% no change	4.2% no change	Higher unemployment raises slowdown risk and quality bias.
PCE Inflation Headline inflation	3.6% +0.9 pp	2.3% +0.1 pp	2.0% no change	2.0% no change	Higher inflation keeps policy restrictive.
Core PCE Inflation Core inflation	3.3% +0.6 pp	2.5% +0.3 pp	2.1% +0.1 pp	n/a	Core inflation is the cleaner policy constraint.
Fed Funds Rate Policy rate	3.8% +0.4 pp	3.6% +0.5 pp	3.4% +0.3 pp	3.1% no change	Higher dots keep duration and valuation risk tighter.

FOMC-To-Macro Lens Cross-Check

This table translates Fed communication into the same decision language as the rest of the Nowcasting page.

Check	Fed Evidence	Macro Lens Read	PM Use
Growth read	SEP 2026 real GDP median 2.2%; revision -0.2 pp.	PM Memo Growth Gauge 56.2 / Mixed.	If Fed growth is resilient but Macro Lens is below neutral, treat Fed language as a lagging confirmation risk rather than a buy signal.
Labor read	SEP 2026 unemployment median 4.3%; revision -0.1 pp.	Labor Market 49.9 / Mixed.	Stable Fed labor projections support holding risk; rising unemployment projections raise the quality and cash hurdle.
Inflation constraint	SEP 2026 PCE 3.6% and core PCE 3.3%.	Inflation Pressure 47.7 / Mixed.	Sticky Fed inflation projections cap duration and valuation expansion even if GDPNow is firm.
Policy path	Fed funds SEP median 3.8% versus current target range 3-1/2 to 3-3/4 percent.	Fed stance: Restrictive hold.	Use as a policy constraint on nowcast strength; do not let the dot plot mechanically override the macro panel scores.

Labor Lens

Payroll impulse, unemployment slack, claims, labor supply, JOLTS demand, job quality, wages, productivity, and PM implications for growth confirmation and inflation risk.

Labor Market Gauge

Higher scores mean a more constructive labor backdrop for growth, consumer income, and risk appetite. Inflation pressure from wages is cross-checked on the Inflation page.

Labor Score49.9Mixed

Breadth42.9%Buckets above neutral

1M Change0.1Score points

3M Change-0.1Score points

Payroll Momentum

Payroll monthly change and 3M average show the current hiring impulse.

Labor Score Line

Composite labor backdrop with regime bands and a 90-day forward x-axis buffer.

Environment Memo

Labor PM Analysis

Current labor read is Mixed: score 49.9, breadth 42.9%, 1M change 0.1, and 3M change -0.1.
Most supportive inputs: JOLTS Openings Falling Breadth 83.3; Job Openings Rate 82.9; Openings Per Unemployed 78.9; Manufacturing Overtime Hours 76.8.
Most restrictive inputs: Civilian Labor Force Growth 1.6; Civilian Employment Growth 15.4; Full-Time Employment 16.1; Labor Force Participation 18.4.
Labor is the income bridge between growth and consumer resilience; upgrade cyclical confidence only when payroll breadth, claims, JOLTS demand, and job quality confirm together.

Labor Methodology

The labor score blends payroll momentum, payroll industry breadth, unemployment/slack, claims, labor supply, JOLTS demand, job quality, hours, wages, productivity, and unit labor costs.

Employment and wage flow variables use 45% YoY, 35% six-month annualized, and 20% three-month annualized z-scores. Level variables such as unemployment, claims, participation, openings rates, quits, and hours use 65% level, 25% three-month change, and 10% six-month change.

Direction is polarity-adjusted: higher payrolls, breadth, participation, openings, hires, quits, hours, full-time employment, real wages, and productivity are supportive; higher unemployment, claims, layoffs, part-time pressure, multiple jobholding, and unit labor costs are restrictive.

Labor Score Audit

Audit trail for the gauge and line: level, momentum, breadth, strongest/weakest bucket, and current PM action.

Score	Regime	Breadth	1M Chg	3M Chg	Strongest Bucket	Weakest Bucket	PM Action
49.9	Mixed	42.9%	0.1	-0.1	Claims And Layoffs	Labor Supply	Keep labor as a neutral signal until claims, payroll breadth, and JOLTS agree.

Labor Decision Questions

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
Is labor confirming the growth backdrop?	Mixed with labor score 49.9.	Strongest bucket: Claims And Layoffs; weakest bucket: Labor Supply; positive breadth 42.9%.	Cyclical and consumer beta need labor income, payroll breadth, and claims confirmation.
Is the labor cycle turning?	Use claims, Sahm pressure, temp help, payroll breadth, and JOLTS deterioration as the leading turn signal.	Initial/continuing claims, claims above 52-week low, Sahm pressure, temp help, openings per unemployed, and industry openings breadth.	Reduce lower-quality beta when claims and JOLTS deteriorate before unemployment fully rises.
Is job growth high quality?	Separate headline payroll growth from full-time work, hours, overtime, multiple jobholding, and real wage gains.	Full-time/part-time employment, average weekly hours, manufacturing overtime, multiple jobholders, real AHE, and productivity.	Weak quality argues for quality/defensive exposure even if headline payrolls are still positive.
Is labor easing inflation pressure?	Wage and unit-labor-cost data are read as both income support and inflation constraint.	AHE, ECI wages, real wages, productivity, and unit labor costs.	Faster wages are constructive for income only if productivity/real wages improve and unit labor costs do not re-accelerate.
Where is the PM action?	Size growth beta to the weakest labor bucket, then cross-check Inflation and Credit.	Bucket-weighted scoring prevents one payroll series from hiding claims, JOLTS, or job-quality deterioration.	Broaden cyclicals when labor, credit, and consumer agree; shift to quality when labor breadth fades or claims rise.

Labor Bucket Scores

Labor inputs are scored inside economic buckets first, then buckets are equal-weighted into the headline labor score. Higher means a stronger labor backdrop for growth confirmation.

Bucket	Score	Signal	Strongest Input	Weakest Input	Inputs	PM Read
Claims And Layoffs	64.8	Constructive	Insured Unemployment Rate (75.6)	Claims Above 52W Low (54.9)	5	Supports growth and consumer income.
Labor Demand / JOLTS	64.6	Constructive	JOLTS Openings Falling Breadth (83.3)	Hires Rate (34.3)	6	Supports growth and consumer income.
Slack And Unemployment	55.0	Constructive	U-3 Unemployment Rate (73.0)	Long-Term Unemployed (33.2)	6	Supports growth and consumer income.
Wages / Income	51.3	Neutral	ECI Wages (74.6)	Labor Productivity (27.9)	5	Mixed; use leading indicators for direction.
Job Quality / Hours	48.8	Neutral	Manufacturing Overtime Hours (76.8)	Full-Time Employment (16.1)	5	Mixed; use leading indicators for direction.
Payroll Momentum	40.3	Restrictive	Manufacturing Payroll Growth (46.2)	Total Payroll Growth Impulse (33.8)	7	Labor is becoming a macro drag.
Labor Supply	30.0	Restrictive	Prime-Age Employment Ratio (66.0)	Civilian Labor Force Growth (1.6)	5	Labor is becoming a macro drag.

Labor Score Attribution And Drivers

Contribution is polarity-adjusted and converted to a 0-100 labor-health score. The driver flag identifies the strongest and weakest current labor inputs.

Input	Bucket	Driver	Latest	3M/Chg	6M/Chg	Score Method	Raw Z	Direction	Contribution	Signal
Total Payroll Growth Impulse	Payroll Momentum	Most Restrictive	0.32	0.84	0.70	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.42	Higher is supportive	33.8	Restrictive
Private Payroll Growth Impulse	Payroll Momentum		0.53	0.88	0.79	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.34	Higher is supportive	36.6	Restrictive
Manufacturing Payroll Growth	Payroll Momentum		-0.30	0.00	0.29	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.10	Higher is supportive	46.2	Neutral
Construction Payroll Growth	Payroll Momentum		0.77	0.97	1.43	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.16	Higher is supportive	43.7	Restrictive
Temporary Help Growth	Payroll Momentum		-0.22	3.15	3.94	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.11	Higher is supportive	45.8	Neutral
Payroll Industry Breadth YoY	Payroll Momentum		50.00	10.00	20.00	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.41	Higher is supportive	34.0	Restrictive
Payroll Industry Breadth MoM	Payroll Momentum		70.00	-30.00	50.00	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.20	Higher is supportive	42.2	Restrictive
U-3 Unemployment Rate	Slack And Unemployment	Most Supportive	4.20	-0.10	-0.20	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.61	Higher is restrictive	73.0	Constructive
U-6 Underemployment Rate	Slack And Unemployment	Most Supportive	7.90	-0.10	-0.50	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.50	Higher is restrictive	69.0	Constructive
Unemployed Persons	Slack And Unemployment		7,094	-145.00	-409.00	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.03	Higher is restrictive	48.7	Neutral
Long-Term Unemployed	Slack And Unemployment	Most Restrictive	1,937	116.00	-11.00	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.43	Higher is restrictive	33.2	Restrictive
Median Unemployment Duration	Slack And Unemployment		11.00	-0.50	-0.40	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.19	Higher is restrictive	42.4	Restrictive
Sahm Rule Pressure	Slack And Unemployment		0.03	-0.10	-0.20	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.35	Higher is restrictive	63.8	Constructive
Initial Claims 4W Average	Claims And Layoffs		207,500	-250.00	-5,500	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.45	Higher is restrictive	67.3	Constructive
Continuing Claims 4W Average	Claims And Layoffs		1,805,250	17,500	-42,000	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.38	Higher is restrictive	65.0	Constructive
Insured Unemployment Rate	Claims And Layoffs	Most Supportive	1.20	0.10	0.00	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.69	Higher is restrictive	75.6	Constructive
JOLTS Layoffs And Discharges Rate	Claims And Layoffs		1.10	0.00	0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.28	Higher is restrictive	61.1	Constructive
Claims Above 52W Low	Claims And Layoffs		0.00	0.00	0.00	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.12	Higher is restrictive	54.9	Neutral
Labor Force Participation	Labor Supply	Most Restrictive	61.50	-0.40	-0.90	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.90	Higher is supportive	18.4	Restrictive
Prime-Age Participation	Labor Supply		83.30	-0.50	-0.50	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.03	Higher is supportive	48.7	Neutral
Prime-Age Employment Ratio	Labor Supply		80.20	-0.50	-0.50	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.41	Higher is supportive	66.0	Constructive
Civilian Labor Force Growth	Labor Supply	Most Restrictive	-0.67	-1.70	-2.48	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-2.15	Higher is supportive	1.6	Restrictive
Civilian Employment Growth	Labor Supply	Most Restrictive	-0.60	-1.43	-2.10	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-1.02	Higher is supportive	15.4	Restrictive
Job Openings	Labor Demand / JOLTS		3.89	44.86	23.05	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.46	Higher is supportive	67.9	Constructive
Job Openings Rate	Labor Demand / JOLTS	Most Supportive	4.60	0.40	0.50	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.95	Higher is supportive	82.9	Constructive
Hires Rate	Labor Demand / JOLTS		3.30	0.20	0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.40	Higher is supportive	34.3	Restrictive
Quits Rate	Labor Demand / JOLTS		1.90	0.00	-0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.24	Higher is supportive	40.4	Restrictive
Openings Per Unemployed	Labor Demand / JOLTS	Most Supportive	1.04	0.12	0.16	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.80	Higher is supportive	78.9	Constructive
JOLTS Openings Falling Breadth	Labor Demand / JOLTS	Most Supportive	20.00	-40.00	-60.00	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.96	Higher is restrictive	83.3	Constructive
Full-Time Employment	Job Quality / Hours	Most Restrictive	-0.46	-3.66	-2.10	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.99	Higher is supportive	16.1	Restrictive
Part-Time Employment	Job Quality / Hours		1.23	17.40	-23.19	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.29	Higher is restrictive	61.3	Constructive
Multiple Jobholders	Job Quality / Hours		5.30	0.20	-0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.29	Higher is restrictive	38.6	Restrictive
Average Weekly Hours	Job Quality / Hours		34.30	0.10	0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.03	Higher is supportive	51.0	Neutral
Manufacturing Overtime Hours	Job Quality / Hours	Most Supportive	4.10	0.20	0.40	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.73	Higher is supportive	76.8	Constructive
Average Hourly Earnings	Wages / Income		3.52	3.14	3.38	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.19	Higher is supportive	57.6	Constructive
ECI Wages	Wages / Income	Most Supportive	11.35	9.38	10.44	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.66	Higher is supportive	74.6	Constructive
Real Wage Growth	Wages / Income	Most Restrictive	-0.21	-0.32	-0.93	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.41	Higher is supportive	34.0	Restrictive
Labor Productivity	Wages / Income	Most Restrictive	0.30	-3.90	-3.40	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.59	Higher is supportive	27.9	Restrictive
Unit Labor Costs	Wages / Income		6.21	5.02	6.09	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.31	Higher is restrictive	62.3	Constructive

Payroll Momentum And Breadth

Payroll Growth Impulse

Total, private, temp help, manufacturing, and construction payroll impulse.

Payroll Industry Breadth

Share of tracked industries expanding YoY and MoM.

Payroll Industry Heatmap

Own-history z-score view of payroll industry monthly changes.

Latest Payroll Industry MoM

Current monthly job creation and losses across major payroll industries.

Latest Payroll Industry YoY

Current year-over-year payroll growth across major industries.

Private, Government, And Defensive Payrolls

Separates private-cycle payrolls from government and defensive hiring support.

Unemployment Slack And Recession Tripwires

Unemployment And U-6

Slack measures use separate axes and robust pandemic-aware ranges so the current cycle is readable.

Sahm Rule Pressure

Sahm pressure is the cleanest unemployment-rate recession tripwire.

Unemployment Duration

Mean and median duration use separate axes so pandemic-duration extremes do not flatten the current read.

Unemployment Buckets

Short- and long-duration unemployment clarify severity.

Demographic Slack

Demographic unemployment rates expose where labor stress is broadening.

Claims, Layoffs, And Separation Risk

Initial Claims 4W Average

Claims are the fastest layoff tripwire; the four-week average filters holiday and reporting noise.

Claims Above 52W Low

Claims pressure is shown separately so the PM can see whether layoffs are materially rising from the local trough.

Continuing Claims And Insured Unemployment

Persistent claims matter more for recession risk than one-off layoffs.

Private Layoffs

Private layoffs show the level of employer separation behavior before it fully appears in unemployment.

Layoff Rate

The layoff rate normalizes layoffs by employment and is cleaner for cycle comparison.

Labor Supply, Job Quality, And Hours

Participation And Employment Ratio

Prime-age measures and headline LFPR are charted on separate axes because they live in different ranges.

Labor Force And Household Employment

Household employment and labor-force growth separate supply expansion from weak demand.

Full-Time Versus Part-Time Employment

Full-time gains are higher-quality labor income than involuntary part-time pressure.

Hours And Overtime

Hours and overtime use separate axes because payroll hours and manufacturing overtime have very different baselines.

Multiple Jobholders

Multiple jobholding can signal income stress beneath headline employment.

JOLTS Demand, Matching, And Industry Breadth

JOLTS Demand Rates

Openings, hires, and quits rates tell us whether labor demand is cooling before payrolls break.

Openings Per Unemployed

Openings per unemployed captures labor-market tightness and matching pressure.

JOLTS Industry Heatmap

Own-history z-score view of openings growth across key industries.

Latest JOLTS Industry YoY

Current job-openings growth by industry shows where labor demand is deteriorating.

JOLTS Falling Breadth

Share of JOLTS industries with openings falling year-over-year.

Beveridge Curve

Openings rate versus U-3 tracks labor-market matching efficiency and cycle tightness.

Wages, Productivity, And Income Quality

Wages And Real Wage Pulse

Nominal wages support income, but real wages determine purchasing power.

Productivity And Unit Labor Costs

Wage strength is cleaner when productivity improves and unit labor costs do not re-accelerate. Productivity is shown in its source growth-rate form; unit labor cost is shown year-over-year.

Wages Versus Quits

Quits rate is a worker-confidence and wage-bargaining proxy.

Score Inputs: Payroll Momentum

Payroll levels, temp help, and payroll breadth identify whether hiring is broadening or narrowing.

Total Payroll Growth Impulse

Payroll Momentum; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest0.32

3M/Chg0.84

Contribution33.80-100

Private Payroll Growth Impulse

Payroll Momentum; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest0.53

3M/Chg0.88

Contribution36.60-100

Manufacturing Payroll Growth

Payroll Momentum; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-0.30

3M/Chg0.00

Contribution46.20-100

Construction Payroll Growth

Payroll Momentum; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest0.77

3M/Chg0.97

Contribution43.70-100

Temporary Help Growth

Payroll Momentum; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-0.22

3M/Chg3.15

Contribution45.80-100

Payroll Industry Breadth YoY

Payroll Momentum; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest50.00

3M/Chg10.00

Contribution34.00-100

Payroll Industry Breadth MoM

Payroll Momentum; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest70.00

3M/Chg-30.00

Contribution42.20-100

Score Inputs: Slack And Unemployment

Unemployment, underemployment, unemployment duration, and Sahm pressure define recession risk.

U-3 Unemployment Rate

Slack And Unemployment; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest4.20

3M/Chg-0.10

Contribution73.00-100

U-6 Underemployment Rate

Slack And Unemployment; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest7.90

3M/Chg-0.10

Contribution69.00-100

Unemployed Persons

Slack And Unemployment; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest7,094

3M/Chg-145.00

Contribution48.70-100

Long-Term Unemployed

Slack And Unemployment; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest1,937

3M/Chg116.00

Contribution33.20-100

Median Unemployment Duration

Slack And Unemployment; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest11.00

3M/Chg-0.50

Contribution42.40-100

Sahm Rule Pressure

Slack And Unemployment; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest0.03

3M/Chg-0.10

Contribution63.80-100

Score Inputs: Claims And Layoffs

Claims, insured unemployment, and layoffs are the fastest labor-cycle deterioration checks.

Initial Claims 4W Average

Claims And Layoffs; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest207,500

3M/Chg-250.00

Contribution67.30-100

Continuing Claims 4W Average

Claims And Layoffs; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest1,805,250

3M/Chg17,500

Contribution65.00-100

Insured Unemployment Rate

Claims And Layoffs; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest1.20

3M/Chg0.10

Contribution75.60-100

JOLTS Layoffs And Discharges Rate

Claims And Layoffs; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest1.10

3M/Chg0.00

Contribution61.10-100

Claims Above 52W Low

Claims And Layoffs; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest0.00

3M/Chg0.00

Contribution54.90-100

Score Inputs: Labor Supply

Participation, prime-age employment, labor force, and household employment determine whether labor supply supports growth.

Labor Force Participation

Labor Supply; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest61.50

3M/Chg-0.40

Contribution18.40-100

Prime-Age Participation

Labor Supply; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest83.30

3M/Chg-0.50

Contribution48.70-100

Prime-Age Employment Ratio

Labor Supply; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest80.20

3M/Chg-0.50

Contribution66.00-100

Civilian Labor Force Growth

Labor Supply; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-0.67

3M/Chg-1.70

Contribution1.60-100

Civilian Employment Growth

Labor Supply; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-0.60

3M/Chg-1.43

Contribution15.40-100

Score Inputs: Labor Demand / JOLTS

Openings, hires, quits, openings per unemployed, and industry deterioration breadth measure labor demand.

Job Openings

Labor Demand / JOLTS; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.89

3M/Chg44.86

Contribution67.90-100

Job Openings Rate

Labor Demand / JOLTS; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest4.60

3M/Chg0.40

Contribution82.90-100

Hires Rate

Labor Demand / JOLTS; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest3.30

3M/Chg0.20

Contribution34.30-100

Quits Rate

Labor Demand / JOLTS; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest1.90

3M/Chg0.00

Contribution40.40-100

Openings Per Unemployed

Labor Demand / JOLTS; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest1.04

3M/Chg0.12

Contribution78.90-100

JOLTS Openings Falling Breadth

Labor Demand / JOLTS; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest20.00

3M/Chg-40.00

Contribution83.30-100

Score Inputs: Job Quality / Hours

Full-time work, part-time pressure, multiple jobholding, hours, and overtime decide whether payroll growth is economically strong.

Full-Time Employment

Job Quality / Hours; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-0.46

3M/Chg-3.66

Contribution16.10-100

Part-Time Employment

Job Quality / Hours; Higher is restrictive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest1.23

3M/Chg17.40

Contribution61.30-100

Multiple Jobholders

Job Quality / Hours; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest5.30

3M/Chg0.20

Contribution38.60-100

Average Weekly Hours

Job Quality / Hours; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest34.30

3M/Chg0.10

Contribution51.00-100

Manufacturing Overtime Hours

Job Quality / Hours; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest4.10

3M/Chg0.20

Contribution76.80-100

Score Inputs: Wages / Income

Wages, real wages, productivity, and unit labor costs connect labor to consumption and inflation pressure.

Average Hourly Earnings

Wages / Income; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.52

3M/Chg3.14

Contribution57.60-100

ECI Wages

Wages / Income; Higher is supportive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest11.35

3M/Chg9.38

Contribution74.60-100

Real Wage Growth

Wages / Income; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest-0.21

3M/Chg-0.32

Contribution34.00-100

Labor Productivity

Wages / Income; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest0.30

3M/Chg-3.90

Contribution27.90-100

Unit Labor Costs

Wages / Income; Higher is restrictive; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest6.21

3M/Chg5.02

Contribution62.30-100

Inflation Lens

Realized inflation pressure across CPI, PCE, components, breadth, sequential impulse, expectations, commodities, wages, and policy-risk translation.

Inflation Pressure Gauge

High scores mean hotter/more restrictive inflation pressure. This gauge is intentionally red on high readings because inflation pressure tightens the portfolio risk budget.

Inflation Pressure47.7Mixed

Hot Breadth25.0%Buckets above hot threshold

1M Change0.4Score points

3M Change-15.8Score points

Inflation Pressure Line

Composite line uses realized inflation plus impulse and breadth. A 90-day x-axis buffer makes the current line ending easier to read.

Environment Memo

Inflation PM Analysis

Current realized inflation read is Mixed: pressure score 47.7, hot breadth 25.0%, 1M change 0.4, and 3M change -15.8.
Hottest inputs: PPI Final Demand 89.6; Commodity Basket Momentum 87.2; PPI All Commodities 87.1; NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations 84.6.
Coolest inputs: Motor Vehicle Insurance CPI 1.0; Trimmed Mean CPI 2.6; Sticky CPI 15.1; NY Fed 1Y Inflation Uncertainty 25.6.
The PM decision is not just YoY inflation; upgrade duration confidence only when core impulse, breadth, shelter/services, expectations, and pipeline pressure cool together.

Inflation Methodology

The inflation pressure score intentionally excludes nowcast data. It measures realized and market/survey-confirmed inflation pressure from CPI, PCE, CPI components, breadth, underlying inflation, expectations, commodities, pipeline prices, wages, and policy context.

Price-index inputs use 45% YoY, 35% six-month annualized, and 20% three-month annualized z-scores. This keeps the long inflation regime in view while allowing re-acceleration to move the line before YoY turns.

Rate and expectation inputs use 65% level, 25% three-month change, and 10% six-month change. Higher scores mean hotter/more restrictive inflation pressure; dollar strength is inverted because a stronger dollar is disinflationary at the margin.

Inflation Score Audit

Audit trail for the gauge and line: level, impulse, breadth, bucket concentration, and the PM action attached to the current pressure score.

Pressure Score	Regime	Hot Breadth	1M Chg	3M Chg	Hottest Bucket	Coolest Bucket	PM Action
47.7	Mixed	25.0%	0.4	-15.8	Pipeline And Commodities	Underlying Inflation	Stay balanced: inflation pressure is mixed and needs confirmation from core impulse and breadth.

Inflation Decision Questions

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
Is inflation still the binding portfolio constraint?	Mixed with pressure score 47.7.	Hottest bucket: Pipeline And Commodities; coolest bucket: Underlying Inflation; hot breadth 25.0%.	High pressure caps duration, long-duration equities, and multiple expansion even when growth looks acceptable.
Is disinflation broad or narrow?	Use breadth, component heatmap, and median/trimmed/sticky measures rather than headline CPI alone.	CPI component breadth above 3/4%, component median, MoM acceleration breadth, and underlying inflation gauges.	Broad cooling supports duration; narrow cooling argues for tactical duration and inflation hedges.
Is the impulse re-accelerating?	The score mixes YoY with 6M and 3M annualized impulses so near-term heat is not hidden by base effects.	CPI, core CPI, PCE, core PCE, services, shelter, goods, food, energy, and PPI impulse lines.	A rising 3M/6M impulse should reduce confidence in a benign inflation narrative before YoY turns.
Are expectations and markets aligned with realized inflation?	Breakevens, forwards, Michigan, NY Fed expectations, and uncertainty act as the pricing/psychology confirmation layer.	Market inflation compensation, household expected inflation, price-category expectations, and inflation uncertainty.	If realized inflation is sticky but expectations are calm, hedge policy patience; if both rise, treat it as a larger risk-budget event.
Where is the PM action?	Size duration and equity valuation exposure to the hottest inflation bucket, not the headline CPI print.	Attribution table ranks the current hottest and coolest inputs after polarity-adjustment.	Extend duration only when pressure, breadth, and expectations cool together; keep real-asset/inflation-tail hedges when pipeline or wage pressure leads.

Inflation Bucket Scores

Inflation inputs are scored inside buckets first, then the buckets are equal-weighted. Higher scores mean hotter inflation pressure, not a better macro backdrop.

Bucket	Score	Pressure	Hottest Input	Coolest Input	Inputs	PM Read
Pipeline And Commodities	75.3	Hot	PPI Final Demand (89.6)	Trade-Weighted Dollar (48.8)	5	Inflation pressure is restrictive for duration and valuation risk.
Market And Survey Expectations	58.7	Sticky	NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations (84.6)	NY Fed 1Y Inflation Uncertainty (25.6)	8	Inflation pressure is restrictive for duration and valuation risk.
Wage And Services Pressure	56.0	Sticky	ECI Wages (74.6)	Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker (36.0)	3	Inflation pressure is restrictive for duration and valuation risk.
CPI/PCE Core Heat	54.7	Mixed	Headline PCE Heat (74.4)	Core CPI Heat (34.2)	4	Mixed; use impulse and breadth to size conviction.
Breadth And Diffusion	44.8	Cooling	CPI Components Above 3% YoY (68.9)	CPI Components Accelerating MoM (25.7)	4	Cooling pressure improves duration/multiple optionality.
Services And Shelter	43.6	Cooling	Owners' Equivalent Rent (57.2)	Services Less Energy CPI (32.5)	4	Cooling pressure improves duration/multiple optionality.
Goods And Energy	36.0	Cooling	Energy CPI (84.3)	Motor Vehicle Insurance CPI (1.0)	6	Cooling pressure improves duration/multiple optionality.
Underlying Inflation	22.0	Disinflationary	Dallas Trimmed Mean PCE (43.9)	Trimmed Mean CPI (2.6)	4	Cooling pressure improves duration/multiple optionality.

Inflation Score Attribution And Drivers

Contribution is polarity-adjusted and converted to a 0-100 pressure score. The driver flag identifies the hottest and coolest inputs in the current regime.

Input	Bucket	Driver	Latest	3M/Chg	6M/Chg	Score Method	Raw Z	Direction	Contribution	Pressure
Headline CPI Heat	CPI/PCE Core Heat		3.73	2.78	4.05	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.04	Higher adds pressure	51.7	Mixed
Core CPI Heat	CPI/PCE Core Heat		2.81	2.29	2.58	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.41	Higher adds pressure	34.2	Cooling
Headline PCE Heat	CPI/PCE Core Heat	Hottest	4.07	6.28	5.34	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.66	Higher adds pressure	74.4	Hot
Core PCE Heat	CPI/PCE Core Heat		3.41	3.52	4.14	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.21	Higher adds pressure	58.4	Sticky
CPI Components Above 3% YoY	Breadth And Diffusion		61.11	11.11	5.56	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.49	Higher adds pressure	68.9	Sticky
CPI Components Above 4% YoY	Breadth And Diffusion		16.67	-5.56	5.56	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.45	Higher adds pressure	32.6	Cooling
CPI Components Accelerating MoM	Breadth And Diffusion	Coolest	27.78	-22.22	-33.33	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.65	Higher adds pressure	25.7	Disinflationary
Median CPI Component YoY	Breadth And Diffusion		3.22	0.22	0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.05	Higher adds pressure	52.0	Mixed
Services Less Energy CPI	Services And Shelter		3.42	3.35	3.47	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.45	Higher adds pressure	32.5	Cooling
Shelter CPI	Services And Shelter		3.48	4.25	3.58	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.17	Higher adds pressure	43.3	Cooling
Rent CPI	Services And Shelter		3.08	4.31	3.30	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.22	Higher adds pressure	41.5	Cooling
Owners' Equivalent Rent	Services And Shelter		3.57	4.36	3.65	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.18	Higher adds pressure	57.2	Sticky
Core Goods CPI	Goods And Energy	Coolest	0.98	-0.66	0.13	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.63	Higher adds pressure	26.4	Disinflationary
New Vehicle CPI	Goods And Energy		0.50	-1.76	-0.30	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.53	Higher adds pressure	29.9	Disinflationary
Used Vehicle CPI	Goods And Energy	Coolest	-1.77	-0.53	-5.42	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.58	Higher adds pressure	28.0	Disinflationary
Motor Vehicle Insurance CPI	Goods And Energy	Coolest	-3.47	-13.37	-8.41	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-2.32	Higher adds pressure	1.0	Disinflationary
Food CPI	Goods And Energy		3.29	3.51	2.91	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	-0.09	Higher adds pressure	46.5	Mixed
Energy CPI	Goods And Energy	Hottest	15.95	6.89	24.96	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	1.00	Higher adds pressure	84.3	Hot
Median CPI	Underlying Inflation	Coolest	2.11	-0.20	-1.02	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.63	Higher adds pressure	26.3	Disinflationary
Trimmed Mean CPI	Underlying Inflation	Coolest	0.13	-2.13	-3.47	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-1.94	Higher adds pressure	2.6	Disinflationary
Sticky CPI	Underlying Inflation	Coolest	0.07	-0.13	-0.22	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-1.03	Higher adds pressure	15.1	Disinflationary
Dallas Trimmed Mean PCE	Underlying Inflation		2.41	0.07	-0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.15	Higher adds pressure	43.9	Cooling
PPI All Commodities	Pipeline And Commodities	Hottest	10.11	16.56	20.46	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	1.13	Higher adds pressure	87.1	Hot
PPI Final Demand	Pipeline And Commodities	Hottest	5.51	6.24	8.49	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	1.26	Higher adds pressure	89.6	Hot
WTI Oil Momentum	Pipeline And Commodities		19.93	-63.61	71.14	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.35	Higher adds pressure	63.7	Sticky
Commodity Basket Momentum	Pipeline And Commodities	Hottest	43.73	-17.55	65.41	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	1.14	Higher adds pressure	87.2	Hot
Trade-Weighted Dollar	Pipeline And Commodities		-0.98	6.42	4.51	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.03	Higher eases pressure	48.8	Mixed
Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker	Wage And Services Pressure		3.60	-0.30	-0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.36	Higher adds pressure	36.0	Cooling
Average Hourly Earnings	Wage And Services Pressure		3.52	3.14	3.38	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.19	Higher adds pressure	57.6	Sticky
ECI Wages	Wage And Services Pressure	Hottest	11.35	9.38	10.44	45% YoY / 35% 6M ann / 20% 3M ann	0.66	Higher adds pressure	74.6	Hot
5Y Breakeven Inflation	Market And Survey Expectations		2.24	-0.43	-0.29	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.03	Higher adds pressure	51.2	Mixed
10Y Breakeven Inflation	Market And Survey Expectations		2.26	-0.20	-0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.05	Higher adds pressure	52.1	Mixed
5Y5Y Forward Inflation	Market And Survey Expectations		2.28	0.03	0.09	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.10	Higher adds pressure	54.1	Mixed
Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations	Market And Survey Expectations	Hottest	4.60	0.80	0.40	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.76	Higher adds pressure	77.7	Hot
Michigan 5Y Inflation Expectations	Market And Survey Expectations		3.30	0.10	0.10	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.21	Higher adds pressure	58.2	Sticky
NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations	Market And Survey Expectations		3.67	0.26	0.26	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	0.41	Higher adds pressure	65.9	Sticky
NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations	Market And Survey Expectations	Hottest	3.34	0.26	0.34	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	1.02	Higher adds pressure	84.6	Hot
NY Fed 1Y Inflation Uncertainty	Market And Survey Expectations	Coolest	2.89	-0.49	-0.58	65% level / 25% 3M change / 10% 6M change	-0.66	Higher adds pressure	25.6	Disinflationary

CPI / PCE Inflation Impulse

Headline CPI Impulse

YoY plus 6M and 3M annualized impulse; this catches re-acceleration before YoY fully turns.

Core CPI Impulse

Core CPI is the cleanest CPI-side reaction-function input.

Headline PCE Impulse

PCE captures the broad consumption-deflator framework.

Core PCE Impulse

Fed-preferred core inflation: use impulse to decide whether policy-risk relief is actually arriving.

Headline CPI MoM Bars

Sequential CPI bars show the current run-rate without base-effect distortion.

Core CPI MoM Bars

Sequential core CPI is the near-term persistence check.

Inflation Breadth And Component Distribution

CPI Breadth Buckets

Share of tracked CPI components below 2%, 2-3%, 3-4%, and above 4% year-over-year.

CPI Component Heatmap: YoY

Cross-sectional component heat shows where inflation is concentrated.

Latest CPI Component YoY Bar

Ranks the latest component inflation prints from hottest to coolest.

Latest CPI Component 3M Annualized Bar

Short-run annualized component momentum for impulse detection.

Component Median And Acceleration Breadth

Median component YoY and acceleration breadth use separate axes so the breadth line does not flatten the median inflation line.

Core Services, Shelter, Goods, Food, And Energy

Services Less Energy And Core CPI

Services inflation is the persistence channel that matters most for policy patience.

Shelter, Rent, And OER

Shelter inflation is slow-moving and can keep core inflation sticky even as goods cool.

Core Goods And Vehicles

Goods disinflation can reverse through vehicles, insurance, inventories, or tariff/supply shocks.

Food Inflation

Food is charted separately so energy volatility does not distort the household inflation read.

Energy And Gasoline Inflation

Energy and gasoline are kept together on dual axes because they are volatile and otherwise dominate food inflation charts.

Core CPI Versus CPI Less Shelter

Ex-shelter inflation shows whether the sticky part is isolated or broader.

PCE Goods And Services

PCE goods/services split maps demand composition to inflation pressure.

Underlying Inflation And Wage Persistence

Median, Trimmed, Sticky, And Flexible CPI

Distribution-aware gauges reduce outlier noise and clarify persistence.

Trimmed Mean CPI And PCE

Trimmed measures cross-check whether underlying inflation is easing in both CPI and PCE frameworks.

Core Services/Wage Pressure

Wage growth mapped to services inflation identifies margin and policy persistence risk.

Inflation Expectations And Market Pricing

Market Inflation Compensation

Breakevens and forwards measure inflation compensation priced into Treasury markets.

Michigan Inflation Expectations

Household expected inflation is a real-income and policy-confidence channel.

NY Fed Inflation Expectations

NY Fed SCE expectations capture household inflation psychology across horizons.

NY Fed Price Category Expectations

Gas, food, rent, and medical expectations show where households feel inflation pressure.

Pipeline, Commodities, Wages, And Policy Context

PPI Pipeline Inflation

Producer prices define margin pressure and pass-through risk.

Commodities And Energy Pipeline

Oil, natural gas, and broad commodities drive headline risk and inflation psychology.

Dollar And Import Pressure

A stronger dollar is disinflationary at the margin; commodity weakness can reinforce it.

Wage Measures

Labor-cost gauges use dual axes, and average hourly earnings is winsorized in the chart to prevent 2020 distortions from flattening the current cycle.

Fed Funds And Real Policy Rate

Real policy rate is shown in its own subplot so policy restrictiveness is readable without crowding CPI and Fed funds.

Cleveland Fed Inflation Nowcast

Current Cleveland Fed nowcast values joined to CPI, core CPI, PCE, and core PCE histories. Last nowcast refresh: 2026-07-25.

Inflation, Month-over-Month Percent Change

Cleveland Fed nowcast table, refreshed from the public nowcasting page when the local cache is stale.

Month	CPI	Core CPI	PCE	Core PCE	Updated
July 2026	0.04%	0.21%	0.16%	0.27%	07/24
June 2026	-0.42% actual	-0.02% actual	-0.12%	0.19%	07/24

Inflation, Year-over-Year Percent Change

Cleveland Fed nowcast table, shown in the same monthly format as the source page.

Month	CPI	Core CPI	PCE	Core PCE	Updated
July 2026	3.37%	2.52%	3.63%	3.36%	07/24
June 2026	3.46% actual	2.57% actual	3.65%	3.33%	07/24

CPI MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

Core CPI MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

PCE MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

Core PCE MoM Nowcast Bar

Recent realized month-over-month inflation with Cleveland Fed nowcast months highlighted.

CPI YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

Core CPI YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

PCE YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

Core PCE YoY Nowcast Line

Year-over-year line beginning in 2022, with the nowcast path dashed.

Score Inputs: CPI / PCE Core Heat

Headline/core CPI and PCE scoring cards show YoY, 6M annualized, and 3M annualized impulse in one place.

Headline CPI Heat

CPI/PCE Core Heat; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.73

3M/Chg2.78

Pressure Score51.70-100

Core CPI Heat

CPI/PCE Core Heat; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest2.81

3M/Chg2.29

Pressure Score34.20-100

Headline PCE Heat

CPI/PCE Core Heat; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest4.07

3M/Chg6.28

Pressure Score74.40-100

Core PCE Heat

CPI/PCE Core Heat; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.41

3M/Chg3.52

Pressure Score58.40-100

Score Inputs: Breadth And Diffusion

Breadth and component-median inputs determine whether inflation pressure is broad or isolated.

CPI Components Above 3% YoY

Breadth And Diffusion; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest61.11

3M/Chg11.11

Pressure Score68.90-100

CPI Components Above 4% YoY

Breadth And Diffusion; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest16.67

3M/Chg-5.56

Pressure Score32.60-100

CPI Components Accelerating MoM

Breadth And Diffusion; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest27.78

3M/Chg-22.22

Pressure Score25.70-100

Median CPI Component YoY

Breadth And Diffusion; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest3.22

3M/Chg0.22

Pressure Score52.00-100

Score Inputs: Services And Shelter

Services, shelter, rent, and OER are the slow-moving persistence block.

Services Less Energy CPI

Services And Shelter; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.42

3M/Chg3.35

Pressure Score32.50-100

Shelter CPI

Services And Shelter; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.48

3M/Chg4.25

Pressure Score43.30-100

Rent CPI

Services And Shelter; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.08

3M/Chg4.31

Pressure Score41.50-100

Owners' Equivalent Rent

Services And Shelter; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.57

3M/Chg4.36

Pressure Score57.20-100

Score Inputs: Goods And Energy

Goods, vehicles, insurance, food, and energy catch tradable and household-salient pressure.

Core Goods CPI

Goods And Energy; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest0.98

3M/Chg-0.66

Pressure Score26.40-100

New Vehicle CPI

Goods And Energy; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest0.50

3M/Chg-1.76

Pressure Score29.90-100

Used Vehicle CPI

Goods And Energy; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-1.77

3M/Chg-0.53

Pressure Score28.00-100

Motor Vehicle Insurance CPI

Goods And Energy; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-3.47

3M/Chg-13.37

Pressure Score1.00-100

Food CPI

Goods And Energy; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.29

3M/Chg3.51

Pressure Score46.50-100

Energy CPI

Goods And Energy; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest15.95

3M/Chg6.89

Pressure Score84.30-100

Score Inputs: Underlying Inflation

Median, trimmed, sticky, and trimmed-PCE measures reduce outlier noise.

Median CPI

Underlying Inflation; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest2.11

3M/Chg-0.20

Pressure Score26.30-100

Trimmed Mean CPI

Underlying Inflation; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest0.13

3M/Chg-2.13

Pressure Score2.60-100

Sticky CPI

Underlying Inflation; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest0.07

3M/Chg-0.13

Pressure Score15.10-100

Dallas Trimmed Mean PCE

Underlying Inflation; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest2.41

3M/Chg0.07

Pressure Score43.90-100

Score Inputs: Pipeline And Commodities

Producer prices, oil, commodities, and the dollar define upstream pass-through risk.

PPI All Commodities

Pipeline And Commodities; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest10.11

3M/Chg16.56

Pressure Score87.10-100

PPI Final Demand

Pipeline And Commodities; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest5.51

3M/Chg6.24

Pressure Score89.60-100

WTI Oil Momentum

Pipeline And Commodities; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest19.93

3M/Chg-63.61

Pressure Score63.70-100

Commodity Basket Momentum

Pipeline And Commodities; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest43.73

3M/Chg-17.55

Pressure Score87.20-100

Trade-Weighted Dollar

Pipeline And Commodities; Higher eases inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest-0.98

3M/Chg6.42

Pressure Score48.80-100

Score Inputs: Wage And Services Pressure

Wage measures connect labor costs to sticky services inflation and margin pressure.

Atlanta Fed Wage Growth Tracker

Wage And Services Pressure; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest3.60

3M/Chg-0.30

Pressure Score36.00-100

Average Hourly Earnings

Wage And Services Pressure; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest3.52

3M/Chg3.14

Pressure Score57.60-100

ECI Wages

Wage And Services Pressure; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 45% yoy / 35% 6m ann / 20% 3m ann.

Latest11.35

3M/Chg9.38

Pressure Score74.60-100

Score Inputs: Market And Survey Expectations

Market pricing and household inflation expectations define whether inflation risk is being absorbed or spreading.

5Y Breakeven Inflation

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest2.24

3M/Chg-0.43

Pressure Score51.20-100

10Y Breakeven Inflation

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest2.26

3M/Chg-0.20

Pressure Score52.10-100

5Y5Y Forward Inflation

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest2.28

3M/Chg0.03

Pressure Score54.10-100

Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest4.60

3M/Chg0.80

Pressure Score77.70-100

Michigan 5Y Inflation Expectations

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest3.30

3M/Chg0.10

Pressure Score58.20-100

NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest3.67

3M/Chg0.26

Pressure Score65.90-100

NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest3.34

3M/Chg0.26

Pressure Score84.60-100

NY Fed 1Y Inflation Uncertainty

Market And Survey Expectations; Higher adds inflation pressure; scored using 65% level / 25% 3m change / 10% 6m change.

Latest2.89

3M/Chg-0.49

Pressure Score25.60-100

Consumer Firepower Lens

Retail-sales components, household wealth levels, balance-sheet assets, and S&P 500 wealth-effect momentum. This page explains why consumption can remain resilient even when survey sentiment is soft.

Consumer Firepower Gauge

Higher scores mean retail-dollar momentum and household wealth effects are supporting consumption and growth.

Firepower Score55.7Constructive

Breadth66.7%Buckets above neutral

1M Change-5.2Score points

3M Change-11.4Score points

Consumer Firepower History

The composite line is built from retail demand, discretionary demand, everyday consumption, household wealth levels, and balance-sheet capacity.

Environment Memo

Consumer Firepower PM Analysis

Current composite read is Constructive: score 55.7, breadth 66.7%, 1M change -5.2, and 3M change -11.4.
Most supportive inputs: Checkable Deposits And Currency 98.6; Household Equity And Mutual Fund Wealth 98.2; Household Net Worth 96.4; Household Financial Assets 96.3; Household Total Assets 95.9.
Most restrictive inputs: Health And Personal Care 7.7; Gasoline Stations 12.7; Food And Beverage Stores 26.4; Food Services And Drinking Places 44.6; Furniture And Home Furnishings 47.1.
S&P 500 rate-of-change contribution is 55.8 with raw z-score 0.14. Household net worth level-heavy contribution is 96.4 with raw z-score 1.80.
PM translation: this panel is the hard-data counterweight to weak sentiment. If retail sales, net worth levels, household equity wealth, and the S&P 500 are firm, consumer spending can keep growth supported even when survey psychology is soft.

Consumer Firepower Methodology

The Consumer Firepower score is a first-class macro panel built from retail-sales components, household balance-sheet asset items, household net worth, household corporate equity and mutual-fund wealth, and the S&P 500 rate of change.

Retail-sales components and the S&P 500 use a 60% six-month annualized / 40% twelve-month growth-momentum z-score. Household net worth, financial assets, equity/mutual-fund wealth, real estate, and liquid assets use a 70% level / 20% YoY / 10% six-month momentum blend because the stock of wealth itself can support consumption.

The page now intentionally gives the Wealth Effect bucket the largest weight at 35%, with the S&P 500 the largest input inside that bucket. Balance-sheet capacity is next, while retail categories keep enough weight to confirm that wealth is translating into actual spending.

Higher is constructive except gasoline-station growth, which is treated as restrictive because it can reflect price pressure rather than discretionary demand quality.

Consumer Firepower Score Audit

Audit trail for the gauge and line: score, breadth, trend, strongest/weakest bucket, and the PM action attached to this hard-data consumer support layer.

Score	Regime	Breadth	1M Chg	3M Chg	Strongest Bucket	Weakest Bucket	PM Action
55.7	Constructive	66.7%	-5.2	-11.4	Balance-Sheet Capacity	Everyday Consumption	Let firepower offset weak sentiment only when retail momentum and wealth-effect buckets both confirm.

Consumer Firepower Decision Questions

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
Can consumption stay resilient despite weak sentiment?	Constructive with firepower score 55.7.	Strongest bucket: Balance-Sheet Capacity; weakest bucket: Everyday Consumption.	Use this as the hard-data consumer support layer beneath survey sentiment.
Is the wealth effect supporting growth?	S&P 500 momentum, household equities/mutual funds, financial assets, and net worth define the wealth-effect channel.	A rising equity market can lift the PM Memo growth score when retail and balance-sheet channels confirm.	Do not fade growth only because sentiment is weak if wealth-effect and retail-dollar evidence are strong.
Is retail demand broad or narrow?	Retail Demand, Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand, Discretionary Mix, and Everyday Consumption buckets separate broad demand from one-category strength.	Total retail, ex-auto retail, real retail, autos, furniture, electronics, nonstore, restaurants, and core everyday categories.	Broader retail support is more investable than a narrow gasoline or one-category move.
Where can this panel mislead?	Nominal retail can be inflated by price pressure; gasoline is explicitly polarity-adjusted as restrictive.	Real retail sales and the Inflation page should confirm whether retail-dollar growth is real volume or price effect.	Upgrade consumer/cyclical beta only when real retail and wealth-effect buckets both confirm.

Consumer Firepower Bucket Scores

Retail, wealth, and household balance-sheet inputs are scored inside buckets first, then bucket weights are applied. Wealth Effect carries 35% because the S&P 500 and household asset levels can keep consumption resilient even when survey sentiment is soft.

Bucket	Bucket Weight	Score	Signal	Strongest Input	Weakest Input	Inputs	PM Read
Balance-Sheet Capacity	15%	84.7	Constructive	Checkable Deposits And Currency (98.6)	Time Deposits And Short-Term Investments (54.1)	3	Supports consumption and growth permission.
Wealth Effect	35%	82.6	Constructive	Household Equity And Mutual Fund Wealth (98.2)	S&P 500 Rate Of Change (55.8)	4	Supports consumption and growth permission.
Retail Demand	18%	71.6	Constructive	Retail Ex Auto (76.2)	Real Retail And Food Services (66.9)	4	Supports consumption and growth permission.
Discretionary Mix	12%	57.5	Constructive	Nonstore Retailers (79.1)	Food Services And Drinking Places (44.6)	3	Supports consumption and growth permission.
Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand	10%	54.7	Neutral	Electronics And Appliances (67.4)	Furniture And Home Furnishings (47.1)	4	Mixed; require confirmation from retail breadth and wealth-effect inputs.
Everyday Consumption	10%	25.4	Restrictive	General Merchandise (54.7)	Health And Personal Care (7.7)	4	Drag on the hard-dollar consumer layer.

Consumer Firepower Attribution And Drivers

Contribution is polarity-adjusted and converted to a 0-100 score. Wealth-stock variables are level-heavy; S&P 500 remains the direct market wealth-effect impulse. Relative weight shows input weight inside its own bucket.

Input	Bucket	Driver	Latest	Transform	Relative Weight	Raw Z	Direction	Contribution	Signal
Total Retail And Food Services	Retail Demand		9.42	6M/12M growth momentum	25	0.56	Higher is supportive	71.1	Constructive
Retail Ex Auto	Retail Demand	Most Supportive	9.95	6M/12M growth momentum	20	0.71	Higher is supportive	76.2	Constructive
Retail Trade	Retail Demand	Most Supportive	10.08	6M/12M growth momentum	20	0.71	Higher is supportive	76.1	Constructive
Real Retail And Food Services	Retail Demand		5.16	6M/12M growth momentum	35	0.44	Higher is supportive	66.9	Constructive
Autos And Parts	Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand		7.17	6M/12M growth momentum	1	0.11	Higher is supportive	54.5	Neutral
Furniture And Home Furnishings	Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand	Most Restrictive	6.87	6M/12M growth momentum	1	-0.07	Higher is supportive	47.1	Neutral
Electronics And Appliances	Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand		12.77	6M/12M growth momentum	1	0.45	Higher is supportive	67.4	Constructive
Building Materials	Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand	Most Restrictive	5.08	6M/12M growth momentum	1	-0.00	Higher is supportive	49.9	Neutral
Clothing And Accessories	Discretionary Mix	Most Restrictive	5.13	6M/12M growth momentum	1	-0.03	Higher is supportive	48.6	Neutral
Nonstore Retailers	Discretionary Mix	Most Supportive	20.13	6M/12M growth momentum	1	0.81	Higher is supportive	79.1	Constructive
Food Services And Drinking Places	Discretionary Mix	Most Restrictive	5.29	6M/12M growth momentum	1	-0.13	Higher is supportive	44.6	Restrictive
General Merchandise	Everyday Consumption		5.50	6M/12M growth momentum	1	0.12	Higher is supportive	54.7	Neutral
Food And Beverage Stores	Everyday Consumption	Most Restrictive	1.05	6M/12M growth momentum	1	-0.63	Higher is supportive	26.4	Restrictive
Health And Personal Care	Everyday Consumption	Most Restrictive	-1.00	6M/12M growth momentum	1	-1.42	Higher is supportive	7.7	Restrictive
Gasoline Stations	Everyday Consumption	Most Restrictive	30.99	6M/12M growth momentum	1	1.14	Higher is restrictive	12.7	Restrictive
S&P 500 Rate Of Change	Wealth Effect		14.10	6M/12M growth momentum	35	0.14	Higher is supportive	55.8	Constructive
Household Equity And Mutual Fund Wealth	Wealth Effect	Most Supportive	55.1T	70% level / 20% YoY / 10% 6M momentum	25	2.09	Higher is supportive	98.2	Constructive
Household Net Worth	Wealth Effect	Most Supportive	174.0T	70% level / 20% YoY / 10% 6M momentum	25	1.80	Higher is supportive	96.4	Constructive
Household Financial Assets	Wealth Effect	Most Supportive	136.4T	70% level / 20% YoY / 10% 6M momentum	15	1.78	Higher is supportive	96.3	Constructive
Household Total Assets	Balance-Sheet Capacity	Most Supportive	194.0T	70% level / 20% YoY / 10% 6M momentum	30	1.74	Higher is supportive	95.9	Constructive
Checkable Deposits And Currency	Balance-Sheet Capacity	Most Supportive	5.6T	70% level / 20% YoY / 10% 6M momentum	20	2.20	Higher is supportive	98.6	Constructive
Time Deposits And Short-Term Investments	Balance-Sheet Capacity	Most Restrictive	8.8T	70% level / 20% YoY / 10% 6M momentum	20	0.10	Higher is supportive	54.1	Neutral

Real Retail And S&P 500

Real retail-sales growth is the hard spending channel; S&P 500 rate of change is the market wealth-effect channel.

Household Wealth Components

Net worth, financial assets, corporate equities/mutual funds, and real estate identify the household balance-sheet stock supporting consumption.

Retail Demand

Total, ex-auto, retail trade, and real retail sales define the broad hard-dollar spending impulse.

Total Retail And Food Services

Retail Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest9.42

Current Z0.56Full history

Contribution71.10-100

Retail Ex Auto

Retail Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest9.95

Current Z0.71Full history

Contribution76.20-100

Retail Trade

Retail Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest10.08

Current Z0.71Full history

Contribution76.10-100

Real Retail And Food Services

Retail Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest5.16

Current Z0.44Full history

Contribution66.90-100

Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand

Autos, furniture, electronics, and building materials reveal confidence-sensitive and rate-sensitive consumption.

Autos And Parts

Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest7.17

Current Z0.11Full history

Contribution54.50-100

Furniture And Home Furnishings

Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest6.87

Current Z-0.07Full history

Contribution47.10-100

Electronics And Appliances

Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest12.77

Current Z0.45Full history

Contribution67.40-100

Building Materials

Big-Ticket Cyclical Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest5.08

Current Z-0.00Full history

Contribution49.90-100

Discretionary Mix

Clothing, nonstore retail, and restaurants tell us whether households are still willing to spend beyond necessities.

Clothing And Accessories

Discretionary Mix; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest5.13

Current Z-0.03Full history

Contribution48.60-100

Nonstore Retailers

Discretionary Mix; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest20.13

Current Z0.81Full history

Contribution79.10-100

Food Services And Drinking Places

Discretionary Mix; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest5.29

Current Z-0.13Full history

Contribution44.60-100

Everyday Consumption

General merchandise, food, health/personal care, and gasoline separate core spending from price-driven pressure.

General Merchandise

Everyday Consumption; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest5.50

Current Z0.12Full history

Contribution54.70-100

Food And Beverage Stores

Everyday Consumption; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest1.05

Current Z-0.63Full history

Contribution26.40-100

Health And Personal Care

Everyday Consumption; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest-1.00

Current Z-1.42Full history

Contribution7.70-100

Gasoline Stations

Everyday Consumption; Higher is restrictive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest30.99

Current Z1.14Full history

Contribution12.70-100

Wealth Effect

S&P 500 momentum, household equity wealth, net worth, and financial assets capture the market-driven balance-sheet support channel.

S&P 500 Rate Of Change

Wealth Effect; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest14.10

Current Z0.14Full history

Contribution55.80-100

Household Equity And Mutual Fund Wealth

Wealth Effect; Higher is supportive; scored using 70% level / 20% yoy / 10% 6m momentum z-score.

Latest55.1T

Current Z2.09Full history

Contribution98.20-100

Household Net Worth

Wealth Effect; Higher is supportive; scored using 70% level / 20% yoy / 10% 6m momentum z-score.

Latest174.0T

Current Z1.80Full history

Contribution96.40-100

Household Financial Assets

Wealth Effect; Higher is supportive; scored using 70% level / 20% yoy / 10% 6m momentum z-score.

Latest136.4T

Current Z1.78Full history

Contribution96.30-100

Balance-Sheet Capacity

Total assets, real estate, cash/checkable deposits, and time deposits show whether household asset buffers are expanding.

Household Total Assets

Balance-Sheet Capacity; Higher is supportive; scored using 70% level / 20% yoy / 10% 6m momentum z-score.

Latest194.0T

Current Z1.74Full history

Contribution95.90-100

Checkable Deposits And Currency

Balance-Sheet Capacity; Higher is supportive; scored using 70% level / 20% yoy / 10% 6m momentum z-score.

Latest5.6T

Current Z2.20Full history

Contribution98.60-100

Time Deposits And Short-Term Investments

Balance-Sheet Capacity; Higher is supportive; scored using 70% level / 20% yoy / 10% 6m momentum z-score.

Latest8.8T

Current Z0.10Full history

Contribution54.10-100

Consumer / Sentiment Lens

University of Michigan survey depth, NY Fed consumer expectations, household balance-sheet stress, income momentum, buying conditions, housing affordability, and PM implications for consumer beta.

Consumer / Sentiment Composite Line

No gauge on this page: the line shows the composite consumer backdrop, with regime bands and a 90-day forward x-axis buffer.

Consumer Score31.0Restrictive

Breadth9.1%Buckets above neutral

1M Change4.6Score points

3M Change-1.1Score points

Environment Memo

Consumer / Sentiment PM Analysis

Current composite read is Restrictive: score 31.0, breadth 9.1%, 1M change 4.6, and 3M change -1.1.
Most supportive inputs: Expected Home Value Change 94.4; NY Fed Discouraged Borrowers 93.6; Expected Gas Price Increase 92.7; NY Fed Any Credit Rejection 91.0.
Most restrictive inputs: University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment 0.7; Durables Reason: Prices High 0.8; Michigan Current Conditions 0.9; Michigan Current Conditions Index 0.9.
Upgrade discretionary and lower-quality consumer beta only when sentiment, income, buying conditions, and credit stress confirm together.

Consumer / Sentiment Methodology

The consumer composite blends University of Michigan sentiment tables, NY Fed consumer expectations and credit access, household credit stress, personal income growth, saving rate, debt service, and delinquency data.

State variables such as sentiment, inflation expectations, credit rejection, debt service, and delinquencies use a responsive 65% level / 35% three-month momentum z-score. Flow variables such as personal income and real spending use the same institutional 60% six-month / 40% twelve-month growth momentum method used in the Credit page.

Direction is explicitly polarity-adjusted: higher sentiment, income, saving, buying conditions, accepted credit, and retirement adequacy are supportive; higher inflation expectations, unemployment expectations, rejection/discouragement, debt service, delinquencies, and price/rate complaints are restrictive.

Consumer Score Audit

This is the line-chart equivalent of the gauge audit: level, trend, breadth, strongest/weakest bucket, and the portfolio translation.

Score	Regime	Breadth	1M Chg	3M Chg	Strongest Bucket	Weakest Bucket	PM Action
31.0	Restrictive	9.1%	4.6	-1.1	Household Credit Access	Michigan Sentiment Survey	Consumer beta requires confirmation; favor quality and income-resilient exposure.

Consumer Decision Questions

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
Is the consumer confirming the growth view?	Restrictive with composite score 31.0.	Strongest bucket: Household Credit Access; weakest bucket: Michigan Sentiment Survey.	Consumer beta needs confidence, income, buying conditions, and credit quality to confirm together.
Is inflation psychology still a constraint?	Use Michigan and NY Fed inflation/price buckets as the policy and margin-pressure check.	Michigan 1Y/5Y expectations, expected gas prices, NY Fed 1Y/3Y inflation expectations, and inflation uncertainty.	High household inflation expectations cap duration confidence and can pressure discretionary margins.
Is credit access becoming a household brake?	Rejection, discouraged borrowers, expected rejection, debt service, and delinquencies define the stress channel.	NY Fed credit-access series, NY Fed 90+ delinquency rates, bank delinquency rates, and debt-service ratio.	Reduce lower-income consumer and consumer-finance beta when credit access worsens even if spending is still holding up.
Where is the PM action?	Size cyclicals to the weakest bucket, not the headline sentiment print.	Bucket-weighted composite prevents one strong sentiment line from hiding weak affordability, credit, or inflation-pressure signals.	Favor quality consumer exposure when balance-sheet stress or price/rate complaints dominate; broaden risk only when income and buying conditions improve.

Consumer Bucket Scores

Consumer inputs are scored inside economic buckets first, then buckets are equal-weighted into the composite. Higher always means more supportive for consumer beta and growth confirmation.

Bucket	Score	Signal	Strongest Input	Weakest Input	Inputs	PM Read
Household Credit Access	71.1	Constructive	NY Fed Discouraged Borrowers (93.6)	Expected Auto Credit Rejection (38.0)	6	Supports consumer beta.
Michigan Inflation And Prices	48.4	Neutral	Expected Gas Price Increase (92.7)	Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations (10.7)	3	Mixed; confirm with income and credit stress.
Household Credit Stress	45.9	Neutral	Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate (68.3)	NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: Auto (4.8)	7	Mixed; confirm with income and credit stress.
NY Fed Consumer Expectations	45.9	Neutral	NY Fed 1Y Inflation Uncertainty (74.8)	NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations (15.5)	6	Mixed; confirm with income and credit stress.
Michigan Saving And Retirement	42.0	Restrictive	Comfortable Retirement Likelihood (74.0)	Adequate Retirement Income Probability (9.9)	2	Consumer-risk drag.
Michigan Housing	41.9	Restrictive	Expected Home Value Change (94.4)	House Buying Reason: Prices High (6.8)	5	Consumer-risk drag.
Household Balance Sheet	28.4	Restrictive	Household Debt Service Ratio (63.0)	Personal Saving Rate (12.2)	6	Consumer-risk drag.
Michigan Buying Conditions	12.0	Restrictive	Durables Reason: Rates Tight (48.1)	Durables Reason: Prices High (0.8)	5	Consumer-risk drag.
Michigan Business And Policy	11.9	Restrictive	Expected Unemployment Relative (33.9)	Government Economic Policy Rating (1.3)	6	Consumer-risk drag.
Michigan Personal Finances	11.8	Restrictive	Probability of Real Income Gains (70.3)	Expected Finances in One Year (1.8)	8	Consumer-risk drag.
Michigan Sentiment Survey	4.3	Restrictive	Michigan Expectations (9.6)	University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment (0.7)	5	Consumer-risk drag.

Consumer Score Attribution And Drivers

Raw z-scores are shown for context; contribution is polarity-adjusted and converted to a 0-100 score. The driver flag highlights the eight strongest and weakest inputs.

Input	Bucket	Driver	Latest	Transform	Raw Z	Direction	Contribution	Signal
University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment	Michigan Sentiment Survey	Most Restrictive	44.80	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.48	Higher is supportive	0.7	Restrictive
Michigan Current Conditions	Michigan Sentiment Survey	Most Restrictive	47.70	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.35	Higher is supportive	0.9	Restrictive
Michigan Expectations	Michigan Sentiment Survey		50.70	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.30	Higher is supportive	9.6	Restrictive
Michigan Current Conditions Index	Michigan Sentiment Survey	Most Restrictive	47.70	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.35	Higher is supportive	0.9	Restrictive
Michigan Expectations Index	Michigan Sentiment Survey		50.70	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.30	Higher is supportive	9.6	Restrictive
Michigan Current Personal Finances	Michigan Personal Finances	Most Restrictive	63.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.08	Higher is supportive	1.9	Restrictive
Michigan Expected Personal Finances	Michigan Personal Finances		84.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.94	Higher is supportive	2.6	Restrictive
Current Finances vs Year Ago	Michigan Personal Finances		84.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.94	Higher is supportive	2.6	Restrictive
Expected Finances in One Year	Michigan Personal Finances	Most Restrictive	67.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.11	Higher is supportive	1.8	Restrictive
Expected Real Household Income	Michigan Personal Finances		44.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.83	Higher is supportive	3.4	Restrictive
Probability of Income Increase	Michigan Personal Finances		25.70	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.43	Higher is supportive	7.7	Restrictive
Probability of Real Income Gains	Michigan Personal Finances		20.80	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.53	Higher is supportive	70.3	Constructive
Probability of Losing Job	Michigan Personal Finances		46.80	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.72	Higher is restrictive	4.3	Restrictive
Adequate Retirement Income Probability	Michigan Saving And Retirement		66.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.29	Higher is supportive	9.9	Restrictive
Comfortable Retirement Likelihood	Michigan Saving And Retirement	Most Supportive	59.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.64	Higher is supportive	74.0	Constructive
Current Business Conditions	Michigan Business And Policy		56.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.01	Higher is supportive	2.2	Restrictive
Expected Business Conditions in One Year	Michigan Business And Policy		41.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.47	Higher is supportive	7.1	Restrictive
Business Conditions Next Year	Michigan Business And Policy		65.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.87	Higher is supportive	19.3	Restrictive
Business Conditions Next Five Years	Michigan Business And Policy		47.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.45	Higher is supportive	7.3	Restrictive
Expected Unemployment Relative	Michigan Business And Policy		68.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.42	Higher is supportive	33.9	Restrictive
Government Economic Policy Rating	Michigan Business And Policy	Most Restrictive	58.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.24	Higher is supportive	1.3	Restrictive
Buying Conditions: Durables	Michigan Buying Conditions	Most Restrictive	40.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-2.25	Higher is supportive	1.2	Restrictive
Durables Reason: Prices High	Michigan Buying Conditions	Most Restrictive	40.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	2.40	Higher is restrictive	0.8	Restrictive
Durables Reason: Rates Tight	Michigan Buying Conditions		4.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.05	Higher is restrictive	48.1	Neutral
Vehicle Reason: Prices High	Michigan Buying Conditions		44.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.84	Higher is restrictive	3.3	Restrictive
Vehicle Reason: Rates Tight	Michigan Buying Conditions		18.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.50	Higher is restrictive	6.7	Restrictive
Buying Conditions: Houses	Michigan Housing		99.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.18	Higher is supportive	42.8	Restrictive
House Buying Reason: Prices High	Michigan Housing		45.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.49	Higher is restrictive	6.8	Restrictive
House Buying Reason: Rates Tight	Michigan Housing		45.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.20	Higher is restrictive	11.5	Restrictive
Selling Conditions: Houses	Michigan Housing		136.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.10	Higher is supportive	53.8	Neutral
Expected Home Value Change	Michigan Housing	Most Supportive	4.50	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.59	Higher is supportive	94.4	Constructive
Expected Gas Price Increase	Michigan Inflation And Prices	Most Supportive	17.50	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.45	Higher is restrictive	92.7	Constructive
Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations	Michigan Inflation And Prices		4.80	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.24	Higher is restrictive	10.7	Restrictive
Michigan 5Y Inflation Expectations	Michigan Inflation And Prices		3.30	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.20	Higher is restrictive	41.9	Restrictive
NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations	NY Fed Consumer Expectations		3.67	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.43	Higher is restrictive	33.3	Restrictive
NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations	NY Fed Consumer Expectations		3.34	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.02	Higher is restrictive	15.5	Restrictive
NY Fed 1Y Inflation Uncertainty	NY Fed Consumer Expectations	Most Supportive	2.89	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.67	Higher is restrictive	74.8	Constructive
NY Fed Household Income Expectations	NY Fed Consumer Expectations		2.96	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.36	Higher is supportive	64.1	Constructive
NY Fed Household Spending Expectations	NY Fed Consumer Expectations		5.01	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.31	Higher is supportive	62.3	Constructive
NY Fed Expected Unemployment	NY Fed Consumer Expectations		41.70	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.67	Higher is restrictive	25.2	Restrictive
NY Fed Any Credit Rejection	Household Credit Access	Most Supportive	16.13	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.34	Higher is restrictive	91.0	Constructive
NY Fed Discouraged Borrowers	Household Credit Access	Most Supportive	5.22	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.52	Higher is restrictive	93.6	Constructive
NY Fed Credit Accepted	Household Credit Access	Most Supportive	38.61	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.03	Higher is supportive	84.8	Constructive
Expected Card Credit Rejection	Household Credit Access	Most Supportive	27.38	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.60	Higher is restrictive	72.4	Constructive
Expected Auto Credit Rejection	Household Credit Access		28.85	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.30	Higher is restrictive	38.0	Restrictive
Expected Mortgage Credit Rejection	Household Credit Access		39.61	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.09	Higher is restrictive	46.5	Neutral
Personal Income Growth Momentum	Household Balance Sheet		2.73	6M/12M growth momentum	-1.08	Higher is supportive	14.0	Restrictive
Disposable Personal Income Momentum	Household Balance Sheet		13.39	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.78	Higher is supportive	21.7	Restrictive
Real Disposable Income Momentum	Household Balance Sheet		-0.57	6M/12M growth momentum	-1.04	Higher is supportive	15.0	Restrictive
Real Consumer Spending Momentum	Household Balance Sheet		1.30	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.13	Higher is supportive	44.8	Restrictive
Personal Saving Rate	Household Balance Sheet		3.00	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-1.17	Higher is supportive	12.2	Restrictive
Household Debt Service Ratio	Household Balance Sheet		11.16	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.33	Higher is restrictive	63.0	Constructive
Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate	Household Credit Stress		2.64	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.48	Higher is restrictive	68.3	Constructive
Credit Card Delinquency Rate	Household Credit Stress		2.92	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.47	Higher is restrictive	68.2	Constructive
Mortgage Delinquency Rate	Household Credit Stress		1.89	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.37	Higher is restrictive	64.3	Constructive
NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: All	Household Credit Stress		3.36	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	0.01	Higher is restrictive	49.4	Neutral
NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: Credit Card	Household Credit Stress		13.12	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.60	Higher is restrictive	5.5	Restrictive
NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: Auto	Household Credit Stress		5.60	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	1.67	Higher is restrictive	4.8	Restrictive
NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: Mortgage	Household Credit Stress		1.09	65% level / 35% 3M momentum	-0.28	Higher is restrictive	60.9	Constructive

University Of Michigan Consumer Sentiment Survey

Headline sentiment, current conditions, expectations, and official survey components anchor the household psychology read.

University of Michigan Consumer Sentiment

Michigan Sentiment Survey; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest44.80

Current Z-2.48Full history

Contribution0.70-100

Michigan Current Conditions

Michigan Sentiment Survey; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest47.70

Current Z-2.35Full history

Contribution0.90-100

Michigan Expectations

Michigan Sentiment Survey; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest50.70

Current Z-1.30Full history

Contribution9.60-100

Michigan Current Conditions Index

Michigan Sentiment Survey; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest47.70

Current Z-2.35Full history

Contribution0.90-100

Michigan Expectations Index

Michigan Sentiment Survey; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest50.70

Current Z-1.30Full history

Contribution9.60-100

Michigan Personal Finances

Current finances, expected finances, income expectations, real-income expectations, and job-loss probability determine whether consumers feel able to spend.

Michigan Current Personal Finances

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest63.00

Current Z-2.08Full history

Contribution1.90-100

Michigan Expected Personal Finances

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest84.00

Current Z-1.94Full history

Contribution2.60-100

Current Finances vs Year Ago

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest84.00

Current Z-1.94Full history

Contribution2.60-100

Expected Finances in One Year

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest67.00

Current Z-2.11Full history

Contribution1.80-100

Expected Real Household Income

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest44.00

Current Z-1.83Full history

Contribution3.40-100

Probability of Income Increase

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest25.70

Current Z-1.43Full history

Contribution7.70-100

Probability of Real Income Gains

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest20.80

Current Z0.53Full history

Contribution70.30-100

Probability of Losing Job

Michigan Personal Finances; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest46.80

Current Z1.72Full history

Contribution4.30-100

Michigan Saving And Retirement

Retirement adequacy and comfort are longer-horizon household balance-sheet confidence checks.

Adequate Retirement Income Probability

Michigan Saving And Retirement; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest66.00

Current Z-1.29Full history

Contribution9.90-100

Comfortable Retirement Likelihood

Michigan Saving And Retirement; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest59.00

Current Z0.64Full history

Contribution74.00-100

Michigan Business And Policy

Business conditions, unemployment expectations, rate expectations, and government-policy ratings translate macro confidence into household risk appetite.

Current Business Conditions

Michigan Business And Policy; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest56.00

Current Z-2.01Full history

Contribution2.20-100

Expected Business Conditions in One Year

Michigan Business And Policy; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest41.00

Current Z-1.47Full history

Contribution7.10-100

Business Conditions Next Year

Michigan Business And Policy; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest65.00

Current Z-0.87Full history

Contribution19.30-100

Business Conditions Next Five Years

Michigan Business And Policy; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest47.00

Current Z-1.45Full history

Contribution7.30-100

Expected Unemployment Relative

Michigan Business And Policy; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest68.00

Current Z-0.42Full history

Contribution33.90-100

Government Economic Policy Rating

Michigan Business And Policy; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest58.00

Current Z-2.24Full history

Contribution1.30-100

Michigan Buying Conditions

Durables and vehicle buying conditions, plus price/rate complaint shares, show whether households are willing and able to pull forward large-ticket demand.

Buying Conditions: Durables

Michigan Buying Conditions; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest40.00

Current Z-2.25Full history

Contribution1.20-100

Durables Reason: Prices High

Michigan Buying Conditions; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest40.00

Current Z2.40Full history

Contribution0.80-100

Durables Reason: Rates Tight

Michigan Buying Conditions; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest4.00

Current Z0.05Full history

Contribution48.10-100

Vehicle Reason: Prices High

Michigan Buying Conditions; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest44.00

Current Z1.84Full history

Contribution3.30-100

Vehicle Reason: Rates Tight

Michigan Buying Conditions; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest18.00

Current Z1.50Full history

Contribution6.70-100

Michigan Housing

House buying/selling conditions, price complaints, rate complaints, and expected home values connect affordability to wealth effect.

Buying Conditions: Houses

Michigan Housing; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest99.00

Current Z-0.18Full history

Contribution42.80-100

House Buying Reason: Prices High

Michigan Housing; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest45.00

Current Z1.49Full history

Contribution6.80-100

House Buying Reason: Rates Tight

Michigan Housing; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest45.00

Current Z1.20Full history

Contribution11.50-100

Selling Conditions: Houses

Michigan Housing; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest136.00

Current Z0.10Full history

Contribution53.80-100

Expected Home Value Change

Michigan Housing; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest4.50

Current Z1.59Full history

Contribution94.40-100

Michigan Inflation And Prices

Michigan household inflation and gas-price expectations are pressure variables because they affect real income psychology and policy risk.

Expected Gas Price Increase

Michigan Inflation And Prices; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest17.50

Current Z-1.45Full history

Contribution92.70-100

Michigan 1Y Inflation Expectations

Michigan Inflation And Prices; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest4.80

Current Z1.24Full history

Contribution10.70-100

Michigan 5Y Inflation Expectations

Michigan Inflation And Prices; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest3.30

Current Z0.20Full history

Contribution41.90-100

NY Fed Consumer Expectations

NY Fed expectations capture household inflation, uncertainty, income, spending, and unemployment psychology.

NY Fed 1Y Inflation Expectations

NY Fed Consumer Expectations; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest3.67

Current Z0.43Full history

Contribution33.30-100

NY Fed 3Y Inflation Expectations

NY Fed Consumer Expectations; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest3.34

Current Z1.02Full history

Contribution15.50-100

NY Fed 1Y Inflation Uncertainty

NY Fed Consumer Expectations; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest2.89

Current Z-0.67Full history

Contribution74.80-100

NY Fed Household Income Expectations

NY Fed Consumer Expectations; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest2.96

Current Z0.36Full history

Contribution64.10-100

NY Fed Household Spending Expectations

NY Fed Consumer Expectations; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest5.01

Current Z0.31Full history

Contribution62.30-100

NY Fed Expected Unemployment

NY Fed Consumer Expectations; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest41.70

Current Z0.67Full history

Contribution25.20-100

Household Credit Access

Credit rejection, discouraged borrowers, accepted credit, and expected rejection tell us whether policy is reaching household liquidity.

NY Fed Any Credit Rejection

Household Credit Access; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest16.13

Current Z-1.34Full history

Contribution91.00-100

NY Fed Discouraged Borrowers

Household Credit Access; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest5.22

Current Z-1.52Full history

Contribution93.60-100

NY Fed Credit Accepted

Household Credit Access; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest38.61

Current Z1.03Full history

Contribution84.80-100

Expected Card Credit Rejection

Household Credit Access; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest27.38

Current Z-0.60Full history

Contribution72.40-100

Expected Auto Credit Rejection

Household Credit Access; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest28.85

Current Z0.30Full history

Contribution38.00-100

Expected Mortgage Credit Rejection

Household Credit Access; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest39.61

Current Z0.09Full history

Contribution46.50-100

Household Balance Sheet

Personal income growth, real disposable income, real spending, saving rate, and debt service anchor the hard-data consumer read.

Personal Income Growth Momentum

Household Balance Sheet; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest2.73

Current Z-1.08Full history

Contribution14.00-100

Disposable Personal Income Momentum

Household Balance Sheet; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest13.39

Current Z-0.78Full history

Contribution21.70-100

Real Disposable Income Momentum

Household Balance Sheet; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest-0.57

Current Z-1.04Full history

Contribution15.00-100

Real Consumer Spending Momentum

Household Balance Sheet; Higher is supportive; scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Latest1.30

Current Z-0.13Full history

Contribution44.80-100

Personal Saving Rate

Household Balance Sheet; Higher is supportive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest3.00

Current Z-1.17Full history

Contribution12.20-100

Household Debt Service Ratio

Household Balance Sheet; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest11.16

Current Z-0.33Full history

Contribution63.00-100

Household Credit Stress

Bank and NY Fed delinquency rates show realized household balance-sheet stress beneath survey psychology.

Consumer Loan Delinquency Rate

Household Credit Stress; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest2.64

Current Z-0.48Full history

Contribution68.30-100

Credit Card Delinquency Rate

Household Credit Stress; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest2.92

Current Z-0.47Full history

Contribution68.20-100

Mortgage Delinquency Rate

Household Credit Stress; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest1.89

Current Z-0.37Full history

Contribution64.30-100

NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: All

Household Credit Stress; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest3.36

Current Z0.01Full history

Contribution49.40-100

NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: Credit Card

Household Credit Stress; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest13.12

Current Z1.60Full history

Contribution5.50-100

NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: Auto

Household Credit Stress; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest5.60

Current Z1.67Full history

Contribution4.80-100

NY Fed 90+ Day Delinquencies: Mortgage

Household Credit Stress; Higher is restrictive; scored using 65% level / 35% 3m momentum z-score.

Latest1.09

Current Z-0.28Full history

Contribution60.90-100

Credit Impulse Lens

Credit availability, loan growth, SLOOS standards/demand, spreads, delinquencies, and liquidity plumbing rolled into a PM-ready credit impulse score.

Master Credit Impulse Read

Environment Memo

Credit Impulse PM Analysis

Current aggregate read is Mixed: aggregate 54.2, credit 53.9, liquidity 54.4.
Momentum is improving: 1M change -0.7 and 3M change 5.2.
The binding engine is Credit Engine; Credit breadth is 50.0% and Liquidity breadth is 60.0%.
A durable macro risk upgrade needs both engines above neutral: private credit must be available and system liquidity must not be actively tightening financial conditions.
Keep credit impulse neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.

Credit Impulse Methodology

The master Credit Impulse score is a 50/50 blend of the Credit Engine and Liquidity Engine. This deliberately separates private credit creation from system liquidity because risk assets need both credit availability and funding permission.

Each input is transformed, standardized against its own available history, polarity-adjusted, and converted to a normal-percentile 0-100 contribution. Inputs are averaged inside economic buckets before the engine score is calculated, then Credit and Liquidity are blended 50/50. State variables use levels; flow variables use a 60% six-month / 40% twelve-month blend so the gauge is responsive without becoming a short-term noise machine.

The aggregate read is used as a PM risk-budget governor. Strong scores allow more spread and cyclical beta only when the individual engine attribution confirms breadth. Weak scores cap beta even if growth data look superficially firm.

Credit Impulse Gauge Audit

The master gauge is not a black box: engine scores are bucket-weighted, breadth shows confirmation, trend shows whether the signal is improving or deteriorating, and action translates the read into risk budget.

Engine	Score	Regime	1M Chg	3M Chg	Breadth	Role	Action
Credit Impulse	54.2	Mixed	-0.7	5.2	100.0%	Top-level 50/50 blend of Credit and Liquidity; governs credit beta and cyclical risk sizing.	Keep credit impulse neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.
Credit Engine	53.9	Mixed	-2.1	2.1	50.0%	Private credit supply/demand, SLOOS, loan growth, spreads, and delinquency confirmation.	Keep credit engine neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.
Liquidity Engine	54.4	Mixed	0.7	8.4	60.0%	Fed/Treasury plumbing, M2, reserves, RRP/TGA, financial conditions, and stress confirmation.	Keep liquidity engine neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.

Credit Impulse Decision Read

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
What is the credit impulse regime?	Mixed with aggregate score 54.2.	Credit Engine 53.9; Liquidity Engine 54.4; engines are aligned.	This is the top-level governor for credit beta, cyclical equity, small-cap exposure, and lower-quality spread risk.
Is private credit or system liquidity the constraint?	Engines Are Aligned	Current engine spread is 0.4 points.	When the engines diverge, size risk to the weaker engine and use the stronger one only as a cushion.
What is the action signal?	Keep credit impulse neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.	Aggregate score is a 50/50 blend of credit supply/demand and liquidity plumbing/conditions.	Convert the score into sizing and quality preference, not a binary risk-on/risk-off call.

Credit Engine

Credit engine combines SLOOS standards, loan demand, loan growth, spreads, and delinquencies. It answers whether private credit is giving permission to own risk.

Environment Memo

Credit Engine PM Analysis

Current read is Mixed with score 53.9 and positive breadth 50.0%.
Most supportive inputs: Corporate OAS 89.3; High Yield OAS 87.4; Credit Card Delinquencies 74.3.
Most restrictive inputs: Total Consumer Credit Momentum 22.9; Credit Card Demand 28.8; Auto Loan Demand 29.8.
Keep credit engine neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.

Credit Engine Methodology

SLOOS standards, loan spreads, loan demand, market spreads, and delinquency rates are scored on current level z-scores. Bank credit, C&I loans, CRE loans, residential real-estate loans, consumer loans, and total consumer credit use a blended flow z-score: 60% six-month annualized growth momentum and 40% year-over-year growth.

Tightening standards, wider loan spreads, wider market OAS, and higher delinquencies are inverted before scoring. Stronger demand and faster loan growth are supportive. Every input therefore maps to the same rule: higher contribution means easier credit impulse.

Each polarity-adjusted z-score is converted to a normal-percentile 0-100 contribution. Inputs are averaged inside their economic bucket first, then buckets are equal-weighted; breadth is the share of buckets above 50. The attribution table is the audit trail that shows whether private credit is broadening or being held together by one pocket.

Credit Engine Decision Read

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
What is the credit engine regime?	Mixed with score 53.9 and positive breadth 50.0%.	Consumer Credit Demand: Mixed z -0.54; Loan Growth: Mixed z -0.23; SLOOS Standards: Mixed z -0.02; SLOOS Terms: Mixed z 0.10; Consumer Credit Standards: Mixed z 0.20; SLOOS Demand: Mixed z 0.20; Delinquencies: Mixed z 0.58; Spreads: Constructive z 1.19	Use this as a risk-budget permission signal; weak breadth means position size should fall even if one input looks benign.
What is carrying the score?	Corporate OAS 89.3; High Yield OAS 87.4; Credit Card Delinquencies 74.3; All Loan Delinquencies 71.5	These are the highest polarity-adjusted 0-100 contributions in the engine today.	Treat a broad supportive driver set as better confirmation than one isolated favorable series.
Where is the binding constraint?	Total Consumer Credit Momentum 22.9; Credit Card Demand 28.8; Auto Loan Demand 29.8; CRE Loan Growth Momentum 35.8	These are the lowest polarity-adjusted 0-100 contributions in the engine today.	The weakest drivers define where drawdown risk is most likely to enter the portfolio.
What is the portfolio action?	Keep credit engine neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.	Score 53.9, breadth 50.0%, and current driver mix.	Translate the engine into sizing, quality bias, spread beta, and liquidity preference rather than treating it as a passive dashboard read.

Credit Engine Bucket Scores

Engine gauges equal-weight these economic buckets after scoring the individual inputs. This is the audit trail for why the gauge is moving.

Bucket	Score	Signal	Strongest Input	Weakest Input	Inputs	PM Read
Spreads	88.4	Constructive	Corporate OAS (89.3)	High Yield OAS (87.4)	2	Supports risk budget.
Delinquencies	71.8	Constructive	Credit Card Delinquencies (74.3)	CRE Loan Delinquencies (69.7)	3	Supports risk budget.
SLOOS Demand	58.0	Constructive	C&I Demand: Large/MM (61.0)	C&I Demand: Small Firms (55.0)	2	Supports risk budget.
Consumer Credit Standards	57.8	Constructive	Credit Card Standards (62.9)	Auto Loan Standards (52.7)	2	Supports risk budget.
SLOOS Terms	53.9	Neutral	C&I Loan Spreads: Large/MM (54.2)	C&I Loan Spreads: Small Firms (53.6)	2	Mixed; use underlying drivers.
SLOOS Standards	49.0	Neutral	C&I Standards: Small Firms (50.6)	C&I Standards: Large/MM (47.5)	2	Mixed; use underlying drivers.
Loan Growth	41.2	Restrictive	C&I Loan Growth Momentum (64.9)	Total Consumer Credit Momentum (22.9)	6	Binding drag on risk budget.
Consumer Credit Demand	29.3	Restrictive	Auto Loan Demand (29.8)	Credit Card Demand (28.8)	2	Binding drag on risk budget.

Credit Engine Attribution And Drivers

Contribution converts the polarity-adjusted z-score to a 0-100 input score. Driver marks the current five strongest and five weakest contributors.

Input	Bucket	Read	Driver	Latest	Transform	Raw Z	Polarity	Contribution	Signal
C&I Standards: Large/MM	SLOOS Standards	Tightening Standards		8.10	Level	0.06	Higher is restrictive	47.5	Neutral
C&I Standards: Small Firms	SLOOS Standards	Tightening Standards		6.60	Level	-0.01	Higher is restrictive	50.6	Neutral
C&I Loan Spreads: Large/MM	SLOOS Terms	Wider Loan Terms		-12.90	Level	-0.10	Higher is restrictive	54.2	Neutral
C&I Loan Spreads: Small Firms	SLOOS Terms	Wider Loan Terms		-8.20	Level	-0.09	Higher is restrictive	53.6	Neutral
C&I Demand: Large/MM	SLOOS Demand	Loan Demand		4.80	Level	0.28	Higher is supportive	61.0	Constructive
C&I Demand: Small Firms	SLOOS Demand	Loan Demand		0.00	Level	0.13	Higher is supportive	55.0	Neutral
Credit Card Standards	Consumer Credit Standards	Tightening Standards		2.00	Level	-0.33	Higher is restrictive	62.9	Constructive
Auto Loan Standards	Consumer Credit Standards	Tightening Standards		-2.00	Level	-0.07	Higher is restrictive	52.7	Neutral
Credit Card Demand	Consumer Credit Demand	Loan Demand	Most Restrictive	-6.00	Level	-0.56	Higher is supportive	28.8	Restrictive
Auto Loan Demand	Consumer Credit Demand	Loan Demand	Most Restrictive	-9.80	Level	-0.53	Higher is supportive	29.8	Restrictive
Bank Credit Growth Momentum	Loan Growth	Credit Creation		6.83	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.07	Higher is supportive	47.2	Neutral
C&I Loan Growth Momentum	Loan Growth	Credit Creation		13.91	6M/12M growth momentum	0.38	Higher is supportive	64.9	Constructive
CRE Loan Growth Momentum	Loan Growth	Credit Creation	Most Restrictive	3.29	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.36	Higher is supportive	35.8	Restrictive
Residential RE Loan Growth Momentum	Loan Growth	Credit Creation		1.67	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.28	Higher is supportive	39.0	Restrictive
Consumer Loan Growth Momentum	Loan Growth	Credit Creation	Most Restrictive	6.16	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.33	Higher is supportive	37.1	Restrictive
Total Consumer Credit Momentum	Loan Growth	Credit Creation	Most Restrictive	2.78	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.74	Higher is supportive	22.9	Restrictive
High Yield OAS	Spreads	Market Credit Stress	Most Supportive	2.71	Level	-1.15	Higher is restrictive	87.4	Constructive
Corporate OAS	Spreads	Market Credit Stress	Most Supportive	0.74	Level	-1.24	Higher is restrictive	89.3	Constructive
All Loan Delinquencies	Delinquencies	Credit Quality	Most Supportive	2.64	Level	-0.57	Higher is restrictive	71.5	Constructive
Credit Card Delinquencies	Delinquencies	Credit Quality	Most Supportive	2.92	Level	-0.65	Higher is restrictive	74.3	Constructive
CRE Loan Delinquencies	Delinquencies	Credit Quality	Most Supportive	1.56	Level	-0.52	Higher is restrictive	69.7	Constructive

Credit Engine Individual Inputs

C&I Standards: Large/MM

SLOOS Standards; SLOOS net percent tightening; higher means banks are tightening standards and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadTightening StandardsSurvey / macro role

Latest8.10

Current Z0.06Full history

Contribution47.50-100

C&I Standards: Small Firms

SLOOS Standards; SLOOS net percent tightening; higher means banks are tightening standards and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadTightening StandardsSurvey / macro role

Latest6.60

Current Z-0.01Full history

Contribution50.60-100

C&I Loan Spreads: Large/MM

SLOOS Terms; SLOOS net percent widening spreads; higher means bank loan terms are tightening and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadWider Loan TermsSurvey / macro role

Latest-12.90

Current Z-0.10Full history

Contribution54.20-100

C&I Loan Spreads: Small Firms

SLOOS Terms; SLOOS net percent widening spreads; higher means bank loan terms are tightening and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadWider Loan TermsSurvey / macro role

Latest-8.20

Current Z-0.09Full history

Contribution53.60-100

C&I Demand: Large/MM

SLOOS Demand; SLOOS net percent stronger demand; higher means stronger borrower demand and is supportive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadLoan DemandSurvey / macro role

Latest4.80

Current Z0.28Full history

Contribution61.00-100

C&I Demand: Small Firms

SLOOS Demand; SLOOS net percent stronger demand; higher means stronger borrower demand and is supportive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadLoan DemandSurvey / macro role

Latest0.00

Current Z0.13Full history

Contribution55.00-100

Credit Card Standards

Consumer Credit Standards; SLOOS net percent tightening; higher means banks are tightening standards and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadTightening StandardsSurvey / macro role

Latest2.00

Current Z-0.33Full history

Contribution62.90-100

Auto Loan Standards

Consumer Credit Standards; SLOOS net percent tightening; higher means banks are tightening standards and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadTightening StandardsSurvey / macro role

Latest-2.00

Current Z-0.07Full history

Contribution52.70-100

Credit Card Demand

Consumer Credit Demand; SLOOS net percent stronger demand; higher means stronger borrower demand and is supportive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadLoan DemandSurvey / macro role

Latest-6.00

Current Z-0.56Full history

Contribution28.80-100

Auto Loan Demand

Consumer Credit Demand; SLOOS net percent stronger demand; higher means stronger borrower demand and is supportive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadLoan DemandSurvey / macro role

Latest-9.80

Current Z-0.53Full history

Contribution29.80-100

Bank Credit Growth Momentum

Loan Growth; Bank/consumer credit growth momentum; higher blended 6M/12M growth means stronger credit creation and is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadCredit CreationSurvey / macro role

Latest6.83

Current Z-0.07Full history

Contribution47.20-100

C&I Loan Growth Momentum

Loan Growth; Bank/consumer credit growth momentum; higher blended 6M/12M growth means stronger credit creation and is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadCredit CreationSurvey / macro role

Latest13.91

Current Z0.38Full history

Contribution64.90-100

CRE Loan Growth Momentum

Loan Growth; Bank/consumer credit growth momentum; higher blended 6M/12M growth means stronger credit creation and is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadCredit CreationSurvey / macro role

Latest3.29

Current Z-0.36Full history

Contribution35.80-100

Residential RE Loan Growth Momentum

Loan Growth; Bank/consumer credit growth momentum; higher blended 6M/12M growth means stronger credit creation and is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadCredit CreationSurvey / macro role

Latest1.67

Current Z-0.28Full history

Contribution39.00-100

Consumer Loan Growth Momentum

Loan Growth; Bank/consumer credit growth momentum; higher blended 6M/12M growth means stronger credit creation and is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadCredit CreationSurvey / macro role

Latest6.16

Current Z-0.33Full history

Contribution37.10-100

Total Consumer Credit Momentum

Loan Growth; Bank/consumer credit growth momentum; higher blended 6M/12M growth means stronger credit creation and is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadCredit CreationSurvey / macro role

Latest2.78

Current Z-0.74Full history

Contribution22.90-100

High Yield OAS

Spreads; Corporate option-adjusted spread; higher means wider spreads and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadMarket Credit StressSurvey / macro role

Latest2.71

Current Z-1.15Full history

Contribution87.40-100

Corporate OAS

Spreads; Corporate option-adjusted spread; higher means wider spreads and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadMarket Credit StressSurvey / macro role

Latest0.74

Current Z-1.24Full history

Contribution89.30-100

All Loan Delinquencies

Delinquencies; Delinquency-rate level; higher means weaker credit quality and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadCredit QualitySurvey / macro role

Latest2.64

Current Z-0.57Full history

Contribution71.50-100

Credit Card Delinquencies

Delinquencies; Delinquency-rate level; higher means weaker credit quality and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadCredit QualitySurvey / macro role

Latest2.92

Current Z-0.65Full history

Contribution74.30-100

CRE Loan Delinquencies

Delinquencies; Delinquency-rate level; higher means weaker credit quality and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadCredit QualitySurvey / macro role

Latest1.56

Current Z-0.52Full history

Contribution69.70-100

Liquidity Engine

Liquidity engine combines Fed balance sheet, reserves, reverse repo, TGA, money supply, and financial-stress/conditions levels. It answers whether system liquidity is cushioning or amplifying credit risk.

Environment Memo

Liquidity Engine PM Analysis

Current read is Mixed with score 54.4 and positive breadth 60.0%.
Most supportive inputs: St. Louis Financial Stress 75.9; Chicago Fed NFCI 68.9; Reverse Repo Flow Change 67.6.
Most restrictive inputs: M2 Money Supply Momentum 32.6; Fed Balance Sheet Momentum 38.8; Treasury General Account Flow Change 44.0.
Keep liquidity engine neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.

Liquidity Engine Methodology

Fed balance sheet, bank reserves, and M2 are scored with a blended flow z-score: 60% six-month annualized growth momentum and 40% year-over-year growth. Reverse repo and TGA use a blended flow z-score: 60% six-month level change and 40% twelve-month level change.

Fed balance sheet, reserves, and M2 are supportive when growth is high. Reverse repo and TGA are inverted because rising balances drain or immobilize private-market liquidity. Chicago Fed NFCI and St. Louis financial stress are scored on levels and inverted because higher readings mean tighter conditions.

Each polarity-adjusted z-score is converted to a normal-percentile 0-100 contribution. Inputs are averaged inside their economic bucket first, then buckets are equal-weighted; breadth is the share of buckets above 50. That keeps one crowded bucket from drowning out the actual liquidity read.

Liquidity Engine Decision Read

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
What is the liquidity engine regime?	Mixed with score 54.4 and positive breadth 60.0%.	Money Supply: Mixed z -0.45; Treasury Cash: Mixed z -0.15; Fed Liquidity: Mixed z 0.02; Financial Conditions: Mixed z 0.49; Financial Stress: Mixed z 0.70	Use this as a risk-budget permission signal; weak breadth means position size should fall even if one input looks benign.
What is carrying the score?	St. Louis Financial Stress 75.9; Chicago Fed NFCI 68.9; Reverse Repo Flow Change 67.6; Bank Reserves Momentum 45.0	These are the highest polarity-adjusted 0-100 contributions in the engine today.	Treat a broad supportive driver set as better confirmation than one isolated favorable series.
Where is the binding constraint?	M2 Money Supply Momentum 32.6; Fed Balance Sheet Momentum 38.8; Treasury General Account Flow Change 44.0; Bank Reserves Momentum 45.0	These are the lowest polarity-adjusted 0-100 contributions in the engine today.	The weakest drivers define where drawdown risk is most likely to enter the portfolio.
What is the portfolio action?	Keep liquidity engine neutral: own quality carry and liquid beta, but avoid upgrading lower-quality cyclicals until breadth improves.	Score 54.4, breadth 60.0%, and current driver mix.	Translate the engine into sizing, quality bias, spread beta, and liquidity preference rather than treating it as a passive dashboard read.

Liquidity Engine Bucket Scores

Engine gauges equal-weight these economic buckets after scoring the individual inputs. This is the audit trail for why the gauge is moving.

Bucket	Score	Signal	Strongest Input	Weakest Input	Inputs	PM Read
Financial Stress	75.9	Constructive	St. Louis Financial Stress (75.9)	St. Louis Financial Stress (75.9)	1	Supports risk budget.
Financial Conditions	68.9	Constructive	Chicago Fed NFCI (68.9)	Chicago Fed NFCI (68.9)	1	Supports risk budget.
Fed Liquidity	50.5	Neutral	Reverse Repo Flow Change (67.6)	Fed Balance Sheet Momentum (38.8)	3	Mixed; use underlying drivers.
Treasury Cash	44.0	Restrictive	Treasury General Account Flow Change (44.0)	Treasury General Account Flow Change (44.0)	1	Binding drag on risk budget.
Money Supply	32.6	Restrictive	M2 Money Supply Momentum (32.6)	M2 Money Supply Momentum (32.6)	1	Binding drag on risk budget.

Liquidity Engine Attribution And Drivers

Contribution converts the polarity-adjusted z-score to a 0-100 input score. Driver marks the current five strongest and five weakest contributors.

Input	Bucket	Read	Driver	Latest	Transform	Raw Z	Polarity	Contribution	Signal
Fed Balance Sheet Momentum	Fed Liquidity	Fed Liquidity	Most Restrictive	4.69	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.28	Higher is supportive	38.8	Restrictive
Bank Reserves Momentum	Fed Liquidity	Fed Liquidity	Most Supportive	5.03	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.12	Higher is supportive	45.0	Neutral
Reverse Repo Flow Change	Fed Liquidity	RRP Drain	Most Supportive	-103.93	6M/12M flow change	-0.46	Higher is restrictive	67.6	Constructive
Treasury General Account Flow Change	Treasury Cash	TGA Drain	Most Supportive	-73098.00	6M/12M flow change	0.15	Higher is restrictive	44.0	Restrictive
M2 Money Supply Momentum	Money Supply	Money Supply	Most Restrictive	5.09	6M/12M growth momentum	-0.45	Higher is supportive	32.6	Restrictive
Chicago Fed NFCI	Financial Conditions	Conditions / Stress	Most Supportive	-0.49	Level	-0.49	Higher is restrictive	68.9	Constructive
St. Louis Financial Stress	Financial Stress	Conditions / Stress	Most Supportive	-0.69	Level	-0.70	Higher is restrictive	75.9	Constructive

Liquidity Engine Individual Inputs

Fed Balance Sheet Momentum

Fed Liquidity; Blended 6M/12M liquidity growth; higher balance sheet or reserves growth is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadFed LiquiditySurvey / macro role

Latest4.69

Current Z-0.28Full history

Contribution38.80-100

Bank Reserves Momentum

Fed Liquidity; Blended 6M/12M liquidity growth; higher balance sheet or reserves growth is supportive. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadFed LiquiditySurvey / macro role

Latest5.03

Current Z-0.12Full history

Contribution45.00-100

Reverse Repo Flow Change

Fed Liquidity; Blended 6M/12M change in reverse repo balances; lower balances release liquidity and are supportive. Scored using 6m/12m flow change z-score.

ReadRRP DrainSurvey / macro role

Latest-103.93

Current Z-0.46Full history

Contribution67.60-100

Treasury General Account Flow Change

Treasury Cash; Blended 6M/12M change in Treasury cash balances; lower balances release liquidity and are supportive. Scored using 6m/12m flow change z-score.

ReadTGA DrainSurvey / macro role

Latest-73098.00

Current Z0.15Full history

Contribution44.00-100

M2 Money Supply Momentum

Money Supply; M2 blended 6M/12M growth; higher growth is supportive for nominal liquidity. Scored using 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

ReadMoney SupplySurvey / macro role

Latest5.09

Current Z-0.45Full history

Contribution32.60-100

Chicago Fed NFCI

Financial Conditions; Level index; higher means tighter financial conditions or stress and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadConditions / StressSurvey / macro role

Latest-0.49

Current Z-0.49Full history

Contribution68.90-100

St. Louis Financial Stress

Financial Stress; Level index; higher means tighter financial conditions or stress and is restrictive. Scored using level z-score.

ReadConditions / StressSurvey / macro role

Latest-0.69

Current Z-0.70Full history

Contribution75.90-100

Fiscal Monitor Lens

Fiscal deficit stance, primary-deficit support, tax drag, Treasury interest paid as income, Treasury issuance, auction demand, and TIC absorption. Higher scores mean fiscal is adding more to growth; funding quality shows whether markets are absorbing that support cleanly.

Fiscal Growth Contribution Gauge

Higher scores mean fiscal policy is adding to nominal demand through deficit/GDP, primary deficits, ex-interest outlays, and Treasury interest paid as private-sector income.

Fiscal Growth Contribution79.9

Score of additive fiscal support to nominal demand

Deficit / GDP5.7%

Broad fiscal contribution proxy

Primary Deficit / GDP1.4%

Fiscal support before interest income

Interest Paid / GDP4.2%

Treasury interest paid as private income

Funding Quality31.6

Separate rates/supply constraint, not the headline score

FYTD Deficit$1,367B

Outlays minus receipts

Interest / Receipts25.3%

Gross interest as share of receipts

Debt YoY7.5%

Total public debt growth

Fiscal Growth Contribution History

The composite line measures fiscal contribution to nominal demand; funding quality is plotted separately as the rates/supply constraint.

Environment Memo

Fiscal Monitor PM Analysis

Current Fiscal Monitor read is Strong: score 79.9, 1M change 0.0, and 3M change 5.6.
Fiscal growth contribution is 79.9 and funding quality is 31.6. A high contribution score is bullish for nominal demand, while funding quality determines whether that growth support also creates rates, supply, or term-premium pressure.
Most supportive fiscal/funding inputs: Front-End Issuance Mix, Deficit Stance / GDP.
Most restrictive fiscal/funding inputs: Treasury Issuance Absorption, Interest Burden Relief.
Portfolio use: fiscal can raise the growth gauge when private demand surveys are soft. If funding quality is weak at the same time, keep the growth support in the forecast but be more careful with duration-sensitive beta.

Fiscal Monitor Methodology

The Fiscal Monitor is a first-class Growth Permission panel that measures additive fiscal contribution to growth. The headline score asks how much fiscal policy is contributing to nominal demand, not whether fiscal is cleanly financed.

The score is level-heavy: deficit/GDP, primary-deficit/GDP, ex-interest outlays/GDP, and Treasury interest paid/GDP carry the most weight because they quantify the fiscal contribution relative to the economy. Change variables such as deficit impulse and fiscal thrust versus receipts are secondary.

Interest expense is intentionally two-channel: it is a cash-flow tailwind because Treasury payments become income to someone, but it is also a funding-quality constraint when it consumes more receipts, raises issuance needs, or pressures rates.

Funding quality is reported separately. Lower interest burden, lower debt growth, lower total issuance pressure, higher front-end bill share, stronger auction bid-to-cover, and stronger foreign Treasury/equity absorption make the fiscal support easier for markets to own. A larger bill share is treated as supportive because it can reduce pressure on the long end of the curve; rollover risk is monitored through total issuance, auction demand, and liquidity plumbing.

Fiscal Monitor Score Audit

Audit trail for the gauge: the headline contribution score, the growth-contribution leg, the separate funding-quality constraint, breadth, and the PM action.

Score	Regime	Growth Contribution	Funding Quality	Breadth	1M Chg	3M Chg	PM Action
79.9	Constructive	79.9	31.6	47.1%	0.0	5.6	Use as major growth contribution

Fiscal Monitor Decision Questions

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
How much is fiscal policy contributing to growth?	Constructive contribution score 79.9; deficit/GDP 5.7%, primary deficit/GDP 1.4%, and interest paid/GDP 4.2%.	Primary-deficit impulse -253.2 $B YoY is the change signal; the headline score is anchored by the level of fiscal contribution to GDP and private-sector income.	Use this as an additive growth input inside the PM gauge. Funding quality decides the rates/term-premium risk, not whether the fiscal contribution exists.
Is the contribution coming from primary spending or interest income?	Primary deficit/GDP 1.4% and interest paid/GDP 4.2%; interest/receipts 25.0%.	Total deficit, primary deficit, ex-interest outlays, gross interest expense, and receipts are all scored separately.	A wider primary deficit can support nominal growth. Gross interest paid also supports private-sector income, but a rising interest burden can still raise term-premium and funding risk.
Is Treasury supply being absorbed smoothly?	Issuance pressure 7454.0 $B 3M; bid-to-cover 2.76.	Auction offering amount, bill share, and bid-to-cover ratio are the supply/demand funding-quality inputs.	If supply rises while auction demand weakens, fiscal support can become a rates and valuation headwind.
Are foreign buyers absorbing Treasury and equity supply?	Foreign Treasury net flow 46.2 $B over 3M.	TIC major foreign holders and foreign equity holdings track cross-border absorption and risk appetite.	Weak foreign sponsorship raises the hurdle for duration and long-duration equity exposure even if deficit impulse supports GDP.
Is there tax or tariff drag?	Customs duties YoY 41.5%.	Customs duties, payroll/social-insurance receipts, individual taxes, and corporate receipts separate income-tax base strength from tariff/import drag.	Rising customs pressure can support receipts but may also signal tariff drag and goods-price pressure.

Fiscal Monitor Attribution And Drivers

Contribution scores are polarity-adjusted and scaled to each input's own history or a policy-relevant level scale. Growth-contribution inputs show how much fiscal is adding to demand; funding-quality inputs show the term-premium and absorption constraint.

Bucket	Input	Latest	Contribution	Polarity	Signal	PM Role
Fiscal Funding Quality	Interest Burden Relief	25.0 %	0.0	Lower is supportive	Restrictive	Lower interest share of receipts leaves more fiscal room and less supply/rate pressure.
Fiscal Funding Quality	Treasury Issuance Absorption	7454.0 $B 3M	2.1	Lower is supportive	Restrictive	Lower near-term supply pressure is easier for markets to absorb.
Fiscal Funding Quality	Front-End Issuance Mix	85.2 %	91.6	Higher is supportive	Constructive	A higher bill share can reduce coupon and long-duration supply pressure, making issuance easier for duration markets to absorb.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Deficit Stance / GDP	5.7 % GDP	91.1	Higher is supportive	Constructive	A high deficit share of GDP is the primary fiscal-growth support signal.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Interest Income Flow / GDP	4.2 % GDP	88.2	Higher is supportive	Constructive	Gross interest paid by Treasury is also income to Treasury holders, so it can support private-sector cash flow even as it raises funding pressure.
Fiscal Funding Quality	Foreign Treasury Absorption	46.2 $B 3M	12.5	Higher is supportive	Restrictive	Foreign net buying helps absorb Treasury supply.
Fiscal Funding Quality	Foreign Equity Risk Appetite	253.9 $B 3M	87.5	Higher is supportive	Constructive	Foreign equity buying is a cross-border risk-appetite check.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Fiscal Thrust Vs Receipts	27.3 pp	86.3	Higher is supportive	Constructive	Outlays rising faster than receipts is a direct fiscal thrust signal.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Ex-Interest Outlay Growth	21.4 % YoY	77.4	Higher is supportive	Constructive	Spending growth excluding interest is the cleaner real-economy fiscal impulse.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Primary Deficit Stance / GDP	1.4 % GDP	75.9	Higher is supportive	Constructive	Primary deficit share of GDP isolates growth support before interest expense.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Gross Interest Outlay Growth	28.1 % YoY	75.0	Higher is supportive	Constructive	Interest expense is also income to bond holders; rapid growth is a cash-flow tailwind, though less powerful than the deficit stance.
Fiscal Funding Quality	Customs Duties / Tariff Drag	41.5 % YoY	26.2	Lower is supportive	Restrictive	Rising customs duties can indicate tariff drag and goods-price pressure.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Primary Deficit Impulse	-253.2 $B YoY	27.7	Higher is supportive	Restrictive	Wider primary deficits add incremental demand; this is a change signal, not the main fiscal stance signal.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Total Deficit Impulse	-92.8 $B YoY	28.6	Higher is supportive	Restrictive	A wider all-in deficit adds incremental support; the level of the deficit/GDP does most of the growth-support work.
Fiscal Funding Quality	Auction Demand	2.8 Bid/Cover	33.2	Higher is supportive	Restrictive	Higher bid-to-cover improves funding quality.
Fiscal Funding Quality	Debt Growth Discipline	7.5 % YoY	36.1	Lower is supportive	Restrictive	Lower debt growth improves funding quality.
Fiscal Growth Impulse	Ex-Interest Outlays / GDP	18.3 % GDP	41.6	Higher is supportive	Restrictive	Ex-interest spending share of GDP captures fiscal demand reaching the real economy.

Fiscal Contribution Vs Funding Quality

This chart separates the fiscal growth-contribution leg from the funding-quality constraint.

Receipt Line-Item Snapshot

Line Item	Latest Month $B	YoY	FYTD $B	Signal
Corporation Income Taxes	82.6	-11.8%	198.6	Falling
Customs Duties	22.1	41.5%	188.6	Rising

Outlay Line-Item Snapshot

Line Item	Latest Month $B	YoY	FYTD $B	Signal
Total Outlays	622.3	5.2%	4273.7	Rising

Fiscal / Liquidity Cross-Check

Indicator	Latest	Adjusted Z	Signal
Fed Balance Sheet YoY	1.1%	-0.05	Neutral
Treasury General Account	$830B	-0.43	Neutral
Reverse Repo	$2B	0.76	Constructive
Bank Reserves	$3,018B	0.09	Neutral
M2 YoY	4.7%	-0.22	Neutral
NFCI	-0.49	0.30	Neutral

Receipts, Outlays, And Deficit

Monthly receipts, outlays, and deficit show the fiscal impulse spine.

Primary Deficit Impulse

Primary deficit strips out gross interest expense to isolate the growth-supporting fiscal channel.

Major Receipt Lines

Individual taxes, payroll/social insurance, corporate taxes, and customs duties separate tax-base strength from tariff/import drag.

Major Outlay Lines

Mandatory spending, defense, and gross interest show the spending mix and structural pressure.

True Interest Expense

Gross interest expense relative to receipts and outlays is the fiscal-flexibility constraint.

Debt Growth

Debt growth is the balance-sheet pressure side of fiscal support.

Treasury Issuance Mix

Supply mix shows where markets are being asked to absorb new financing.

Auction Demand

Bid-to-cover alongside monthly offering amount indicates how cleanly supply is being absorbed.

Foreign Treasury Absorption

TIC major foreign holders show whether foreign buyers are adding or reducing Treasury sponsorship.

Foreign Equity Risk Appetite

Foreign equity buying/selling is a cross-border risk-appetite check tied to the broader U.S. asset-market support channel.

Customs Duties

Customs duties are the tariff/import-policy receipt line and can carry inflation/tax-drag information.

Payroll / Social Insurance Receipts

Payroll/social insurance receipts are the wage-and-employment tax-base confirmation line.

Daily Treasury Statement Deposits

DTS deposits add a high-frequency receipt-flow check beneath the monthly MTS data.

Fed Balance Sheet

The Fed balance sheet is the broadest liquidity backdrop and is shown separately so it does not swamp Treasury cash-management and reserve plumbing.

TGA, Reverse Repo, And Bank Reserves

TGA and reverse repo share the left axis; bank reserves use the right axis so liquidity plumbing can be read without scale distortion.

Manufacturing Cycle Lens

Census/FRED new orders and shipments, regional Fed current and forward manufacturing surveys, prices, inventories, and backlog evidence. This is the goods-cycle and capex bridge between hard activity and Main Street confirmation.

Manufacturing Cycle Gauge

Higher scores mean factory demand, capex-leading orders, shipments, and regional survey breadth are adding growth permission.

Manufacturing Score61.7Constructive

Breadth83.3%Buckets above neutral

1M Change0.9Score points

3M Change-3.9Score points

Manufacturing Cycle History

The composite line blends hard orders/shipments with Dallas, Empire State, and Philadelphia Fed current and future survey evidence.

Environment Memo

Manufacturing PM Analysis

Current composite read is Constructive: score 61.7, breadth 83.3%, 1M change 0.9, and 3M change -3.9.
Strongest bucket is Hard Shipments; weakest bucket is Manufacturing Inflation / Margins. This separates hard Census factory flow from regional survey leading evidence.
Most supportive inputs: Philly Unfilled Orders 98.1; Philly General Activity 96.5; Philly New Orders 96.1; Philly Shipments 95.7; Consumer Goods New Orders 94.8.
Most restrictive inputs: Dallas Finished Goods Inventory 7.5; Dallas Prices Received 10.6; Philly Prices Paid 10.6; Empire Future Shipments 10.7; Philly Prices Received 12.1.
PM translation: use this panel as the goods-cycle and capex bridge between hard real activity and NFIB. A strong reading adds conviction to cyclicals, industrials, transports, semis/capex supply chains, and lower-quality beta only when credit and inflation permission do not disagree.

Manufacturing Methodology

The Manufacturing score is built from Census/FRED manufacturers' new orders and shipments plus Dallas Fed, Empire State, and Philadelphia Fed manufacturing survey diffusion indexes.

Hard orders and shipments use an outlier-adjusted 60% six-month annualized / 40% twelve-month growth-momentum score so the page reacts to inflection without letting 2020-style distortions dominate the scale.

Regional Fed current and future survey balances use level scores because diffusion indexes already measure the share of firms reporting improvement versus deterioration. Prices and inventories are inverted where a higher reading represents margin pressure or unwanted stock build.

The aggregate weights are: Hard New Orders 25%, Regional Forward Demand 25%, Regional Current Demand 20%, Hard Shipments 15%, Manufacturing Inflation/Margins 10%, and Inventories/Backlog 5%. This gives the most weight to forward demand and capex-leading evidence, while still requiring hard-data confirmation.

Manufacturing Score Audit

Audit trail for the gauge and line: score, breadth, trend, strongest/weakest bucket, and the PM action attached to factory-cycle evidence.

Score	Regime	Breadth	1M Chg	3M Chg	Strongest Bucket	Weakest Bucket	PM Action
61.7	Constructive	83.3%	0.9	-3.9	Hard Shipments	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	Use as the industrial-cycle confirmation layer; upgrade only when orders, shipments, and survey forward demand agree.

Manufacturing Decision Questions

Question	Current Answer	Evidence	PM Use
Is the factory cycle adding or subtracting growth evidence?	Constructive with manufacturing score 61.7.	Hard orders 67.7, shipments 86.0, current regional demand 73.1, and forward regional demand 50.8.	Use as the goods-cycle and capex bridge between hard real activity, credit, and small-business confirmation.
Is capex demand improving?	Core capital goods orders, capital goods shipments, and regional future capex/new-order surveys carry the highest signal.	Core capex orders ex aircraft, core capex shipments ex aircraft, capital goods orders/shipments, Dallas future capex, and regional future new orders.	Upgrade industrial/capex-sensitive equity only when orders and shipments confirm together.
Are regional surveys leading hard data higher or lower?	Current regional demand 73.1; forward regional demand 50.8.	Dallas, Empire State, and Philly Fed current/future general activity, production, new orders, and shipments.	A forward-survey improvement without hard-order confirmation is a watch item; both together raise conviction.
Is manufacturing inflation a margin or policy constraint?	Manufacturing inflation/margins bucket 20.0.	Regional prices paid and prices received are treated as restrictive when elevated.	Strong demand with hot prices supports nominal revenues but can cap margins, duration, and valuation permission.
Are inventories masking demand quality?	Inventories/backlog bucket 50.2.	Backlogs/unfilled orders are supportive; unwanted finished-goods or inventory accumulation is restrictive.	Fade a factory rebound if it is inventory-led without new orders, shipments, and backlog confirmation.

Manufacturing Bucket Scores

Inputs are scored inside economically coherent buckets first, then bucket weights are applied. New orders and forward regional demand carry the highest weights because they lead the factory/capex cycle.

Bucket	Bucket Weight	Score	Signal	Strongest Input	Weakest Input	Inputs	PM Read
Hard Shipments	15%	86.0	Constructive	Consumer Goods Shipments (93.5)	Core Capex Shipments Ex Aircraft (76.3)	6	Factory cycle is adding growth confirmation.
Regional Current Demand	20%	73.1	Constructive	Philly General Activity (96.5)	Dallas New Orders (43.1)	10	Factory cycle is adding growth confirmation.
Hard New Orders	25%	67.7	Constructive	Consumer Goods New Orders (94.8)	Capital Goods New Orders (12.3)	8	Factory cycle is adding growth confirmation.
Regional Forward Demand	25%	50.8	Neutral	Dallas Future Company Outlook (74.4)	Empire Future Shipments (10.7)	11	Mixed; require confirmation from both hard orders and regional surveys.
Inventories / Backlog	5%	50.2	Neutral	Philly Unfilled Orders (98.1)	Dallas Finished Goods Inventory (7.5)	6	Mixed; require confirmation from both hard orders and regional surveys.
Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	10%	20.0	Restrictive	Dallas Future Prices Paid (55.8)	Dallas Prices Received (10.6)	8	Factory cycle is a drag on cyclical conviction.

Manufacturing Attribution And Drivers

Contribution is polarity-adjusted and converted to a 0-100 score. Hard orders/shipments are growth impulses; survey balances are level signals; price and inventory pressure are inverted. Relative weight shows input weight inside its own bucket.

Input	Bucket	Driver	Latest	Transform	Relative Weight	Raw Z	Direction	Contribution	Signal
Total Manufacturing New Orders	Hard New Orders		11.75%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	18	0.45	Higher is supportive	67.5	Constructive
Durable Goods New Orders	Hard New Orders		4.94%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	14	-0.23	Higher is supportive	40.8	Restrictive
Durable Goods Ex Transportation Orders	Hard New Orders		14.58%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	16	1.11	Higher is supportive	86.6	Constructive
Core Capex Orders Ex Aircraft	Hard New Orders		14.02%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	24	0.97	Higher is supportive	83.5	Constructive
Capital Goods New Orders	Hard New Orders	Most Restrictive	-9.23%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	12	-1.16	Higher is supportive	12.3	Restrictive
Computers And Electronics Orders	Hard New Orders	Most Supportive	22.36%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	6	1.59	Higher is supportive	94.4	Constructive
Machinery New Orders	Hard New Orders		16.88%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	6	1.01	Higher is supportive	84.4	Constructive
Consumer Goods New Orders	Hard New Orders	Most Supportive	23.73%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	4	1.63	Higher is supportive	94.8	Constructive
Core Capex Shipments Ex Aircraft	Hard Shipments		8.82%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	30	0.71	Higher is supportive	76.3	Constructive
Capital Goods Shipments	Hard Shipments	Most Supportive	14.45%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	20	1.38	Higher is supportive	91.6	Constructive
Total Manufacturing Shipments	Hard Shipments	Most Supportive	16.18%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	15	1.30	Higher is supportive	90.3	Constructive
Durable Goods Shipments	Hard Shipments		13.10%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	15	1.10	Higher is supportive	86.5	Constructive
Nondurable Goods Shipments	Hard Shipments	Most Supportive	19.41%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	10	1.23	Higher is supportive	89.1	Constructive
Consumer Goods Shipments	Hard Shipments	Most Supportive	32.30%	outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum	10	1.52	Higher is supportive	93.5	Constructive
Dallas General Business Activity	Regional Current Demand		0.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.01	Higher is supportive	49.5	Neutral
Dallas Production	Regional Current Demand		7.90	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.12	Higher is supportive	45.0	Neutral
Dallas New Orders	Regional Current Demand		2.30	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.17	Higher is supportive	43.1	Restrictive
Dallas Shipments	Regional Current Demand		9.40	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.10	Higher is supportive	54.1	Neutral
Empire General Business Conditions	Regional Current Demand		15.60	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.63	Higher is supportive	73.5	Constructive
Empire New Orders	Regional Current Demand		22.20	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.22	Higher is supportive	88.9	Constructive
Empire Shipments	Regional Current Demand		24.40	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.19	Higher is supportive	88.3	Constructive
Philly General Activity	Regional Current Demand	Most Supportive	41.40	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.82	Higher is supportive	96.5	Constructive
Philly New Orders	Regional Current Demand	Most Supportive	37.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.76	Higher is supportive	96.1	Constructive
Philly Shipments	Regional Current Demand	Most Supportive	33.70	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.72	Higher is supportive	95.7	Constructive
Dallas Future Company Outlook	Regional Forward Demand		28.50	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.66	Higher is supportive	74.4	Constructive
Dallas Future Production	Regional Forward Demand		34.80	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.09	Higher is supportive	46.5	Neutral
Dallas Future New Orders	Regional Forward Demand		35.50	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.15	Higher is supportive	56.1	Constructive
Dallas Future Shipments	Regional Forward Demand		35.10	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.06	Higher is supportive	52.2	Neutral
Dallas Future Capex	Regional Forward Demand		27.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.59	Higher is supportive	72.2	Constructive
Empire Future General Conditions	Regional Forward Demand		27.90	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.46	Higher is supportive	32.3	Restrictive
Empire Future New Orders	Regional Forward Demand		33.20	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.12	Higher is supportive	45.1	Neutral
Empire Future Shipments	Regional Forward Demand	Most Restrictive	16.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	-1.24	Higher is supportive	10.7	Restrictive
Philly Future General Activity	Regional Forward Demand		34.40	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.12	Higher is supportive	54.8	Neutral
Philly Future New Orders	Regional Forward Demand		35.10	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.08	Higher is supportive	53.4	Neutral
Philly Future Shipments	Regional Forward Demand		39.30	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.29	Higher is supportive	61.4	Constructive
Dallas Prices Paid	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins		42.40	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.65	Higher is restrictive	25.8	Restrictive
Dallas Prices Received	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	Most Restrictive	31.60	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.25	Higher is restrictive	10.6	Restrictive
Dallas Future Prices Paid	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins		32.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.14	Higher is restrictive	55.8	Constructive
Empire Prices Paid	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	Most Restrictive	52.30	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.03	Higher is restrictive	15.0	Restrictive
Empire Prices Received	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	Most Restrictive	24.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.99	Higher is restrictive	16.0	Restrictive
Philly Prices Paid	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	Most Restrictive	53.90	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.25	Higher is restrictive	10.6	Restrictive
Philly Prices Received	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	Most Restrictive	31.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.17	Higher is restrictive	12.1	Restrictive
Philly Future Prices Paid	Manufacturing Inflation / Margins	Most Restrictive	56.70	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.06	Higher is restrictive	14.4	Restrictive
Dallas Unfilled Orders	Inventories / Backlog		-2.80	outlier-adjusted level	1	-0.01	Higher is supportive	49.6	Neutral
Empire Unfilled Orders	Inventories / Backlog		5.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.01	Higher is supportive	84.3	Constructive
Philly Unfilled Orders	Inventories / Backlog	Most Supportive	18.10	outlier-adjusted level	1	2.08	Higher is supportive	98.1	Constructive
Dallas Finished Goods Inventory	Inventories / Backlog	Most Restrictive	7.80	outlier-adjusted level	1	1.44	Higher is restrictive	7.5	Restrictive
Empire Inventories	Inventories / Backlog	Most Restrictive	4.00	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.72	Higher is restrictive	23.6	Restrictive
Philly Inventories	Inventories / Backlog		0.30	outlier-adjusted level	1	0.30	Higher is restrictive	38.1	Restrictive

Core Orders And Shipments

Core capital goods orders and shipments are the cleanest hard-data capex bridge from factory demand to realized business investment.

Regional Fed New Orders

Current and future new-order diffusion indexes show whether regional surveys are leading hard factory data higher or lower.

Hard New Orders

Total manufacturing, durable goods, ex-transportation, core capex, capital goods, machinery, electronics, and consumer-goods orders define the factory demand impulse.

Total Manufacturing New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest11.75%

Current Z0.45Full history

Contribution67.50-100

Durable Goods New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest4.94%

Current Z-0.23Full history

Contribution40.80-100

Durable Goods Ex Transportation Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest14.58%

Current Z1.11Full history

Contribution86.60-100

Core Capex Orders Ex Aircraft

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest14.02%

Current Z0.97Full history

Contribution83.50-100

Capital Goods New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest-9.23%

Current Z-1.16Full history

Contribution12.30-100

Computers And Electronics Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest22.36%

Current Z1.59Full history

Contribution94.40-100

Machinery New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest16.88%

Current Z1.01Full history

Contribution84.40-100

Consumer Goods New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest23.73%

Current Z1.63Full history

Contribution94.80-100

Hard Shipments

Shipments confirm whether orders are flowing into realized activity and business-investment contribution.

Core Capex Shipments Ex Aircraft

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest8.82%

Current Z0.71Full history

Contribution76.30-100

Capital Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest14.45%

Current Z1.38Full history

Contribution91.60-100

Total Manufacturing Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest16.18%

Current Z1.30Full history

Contribution90.30-100

Durable Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest13.10%

Current Z1.10Full history

Contribution86.50-100

Nondurable Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest19.41%

Current Z1.23Full history

Contribution89.10-100

Consumer Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6M/12M growth momentum z-score.

Latest32.30%

Current Z1.52Full history

Contribution93.50-100

Regional Current Demand

Dallas, Empire State, and Philadelphia Fed current activity, production, new orders, and shipments show live factory breadth.

Dallas General Business Activity

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest0.00

Current Z-0.01Full history

Contribution49.50-100

Dallas Production

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest7.90

Current Z-0.12Full history

Contribution45.00-100

Dallas New Orders

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest2.30

Current Z-0.17Full history

Contribution43.10-100

Dallas Shipments

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest9.40

Current Z0.10Full history

Contribution54.10-100

Empire General Business Conditions

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest15.60

Current Z0.63Full history

Contribution73.50-100

Empire New Orders

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest22.20

Current Z1.22Full history

Contribution88.90-100

Empire Shipments

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest24.40

Current Z1.19Full history

Contribution88.30-100

Philly General Activity

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest41.40

Current Z1.82Full history

Contribution96.50-100

Philly New Orders

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest37.00

Current Z1.76Full history

Contribution96.10-100

Philly Shipments

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Latest33.70

Current Z1.72Full history

Contribution95.70-100

Regional Forward Demand

Future activity, production, new orders, shipments, and capex plans show whether the next leg of the factory cycle is broadening or fading.