How To Read The Deck

Start with the PM Memo for the investable conclusion, then use the individual pages to audit the evidence. The deck is designed so the PM can answer three questions quickly: what is the macro backdrop, what changed, and what portfolio risk is being paid for.

Nowcasting is intentionally separated from the strategic Growth Permission gauge. GDPNow and Cleveland Fed nowcasts are high-frequency tracking tools; they should confirm or challenge the panel scores, not mechanically replace them.

Score Scale And Polarity

Most pages use higher scores to mean more constructive for growth or risk assets. Inflation is the exception: higher means hotter and more restrictive. The PM Memo converts inflation into Inflation Permission before blending it with growth inputs.

Chart And Table Conventions

Charts are formatted to make the investment signal readable: gauges keep the full score scale, score histories tighten around their active range, component charts keep separate axes where one series would distort another, and heatmaps use within-series scaling.

Decision Rules And Risk Controls

The deck upgrades conviction only when level, change, and breadth agree. A high score with weak breadth, a strong GDPNow print with weak credit, or cooling inflation with labor deterioration all require different portfolio actions.

Nowcasting Methodology

GDPNow is treated as a current-quarter tracking estimate, not a standalone cycle call. The page separates the headline growth estimate, historical GDP context, component quality, release revisions, and Cleveland Fed inflation nowcasts.

Realized GDP contribution bars come from FRED/BEA history. The final stacked bar is the current Atlanta Fed GDPNow component stack. Component cards are ordered by latest contribution so the PM sees what is carrying the estimate first.

Cleveland Fed CPI/Core CPI/PCE/Core PCE nowcasts are copied into this page as the inflation-nowcast cross-check; the Inflation page keeps the same suite for its full inflation workflow.

FOMC Methodology

The statement supplies the policy action, target range, vote, and key language. SEP meetings add medians, dot-plot distribution, and participant risk-balance tables. Non-SEP meetings carry forward the latest SEP and clearly show the SEP as-of date.

The Fed Language NLP monitor is a transparent phrase model on official FOMC statements, normalized over the recent communication regime and plotted against daily FRED T5YIE 5-year breakeven inflation. The Fed Minutes monitor separately parses delayed meeting minutes into hawkish and dovish sentence buckets. Both are communication-constraint diagnostics, not Growth Permission inputs.

SEP Real GDP Median Path

Growth path; higher is supportive if inflation and credit allow.

SEP Unemployment Median Path

Labor slack path; higher unemployment raises slowdown risk.

SEP PCE Inflation Median Path

Headline inflation path; higher keeps policy restrictive.

SEP Core PCE Inflation Median Path

Core inflation path; cleaner policy constraint than headline.

Fed Funds Policy Path

The policy-rate median and prior SEP show whether the reaction function moved tighter or easier.

Dot Plot Distribution

Bubble size is the number of participants at each projected policy-rate level.

SEP Risk Balance

Participant risk skews show whether the Fed sees downside/upside asymmetry around growth, unemployment, and inflation projections.

FOMC Source Discipline

The panel distinguishes material types because they update on different schedules. The statement is every FOMC meeting; SEP projections and dot plots are only SEP meetings; minutes lag the decision.

Labor Market Gauge

Higher scores mean a more constructive labor backdrop for growth, consumer income, and risk appetite. Inflation pressure from wages is cross-checked on the Inflation page.

Labor Methodology

The labor score blends payroll momentum, payroll industry breadth, unemployment/slack, claims, labor supply, JOLTS demand, job quality, hours, wages, productivity, and unit labor costs.

Employment and wage flow variables use 45% YoY, 35% six-month annualized, and 20% three-month annualized z-scores. Level variables such as unemployment, claims, participation, openings rates, quits, and hours use 65% level, 25% three-month change, and 10% six-month change.

Direction is polarity-adjusted: higher payrolls, breadth, participation, openings, hires, quits, hours, full-time employment, real wages, and productivity are supportive; higher unemployment, claims, layoffs, part-time pressure, multiple jobholding, and unit labor costs are restrictive.

Inflation Pressure Gauge

High scores mean hotter/more restrictive inflation pressure. This gauge is intentionally red on high readings because inflation pressure tightens the portfolio risk budget.

Inflation Pressure Line

Composite line uses realized inflation plus impulse and breadth. A 90-day x-axis buffer makes the current line ending easier to read.

Inflation Methodology

The inflation pressure score intentionally excludes nowcast data. It measures realized and market/survey-confirmed inflation pressure from CPI, PCE, CPI components, breadth, underlying inflation, expectations, commodities, pipeline prices, wages, and policy context.

Price-index inputs use 45% YoY, 35% six-month annualized, and 20% three-month annualized z-scores. This keeps the long inflation regime in view while allowing re-acceleration to move the line before YoY turns.

Rate and expectation inputs use 65% level, 25% three-month change, and 10% six-month change. Higher scores mean hotter/more restrictive inflation pressure; dollar strength is inverted because a stronger dollar is disinflationary at the margin.

Consumer Firepower Gauge

Higher scores mean retail-dollar momentum and household wealth effects are supporting consumption and growth.

Consumer Firepower History

The composite line is built from retail demand, discretionary demand, everyday consumption, household wealth levels, and balance-sheet capacity.

Consumer Firepower Methodology

The Consumer Firepower score is a first-class macro panel built from retail-sales components, household balance-sheet asset items, household net worth, household corporate equity and mutual-fund wealth, and the S&P 500 rate of change.

Retail-sales components and the S&P 500 use a 60% six-month annualized / 40% twelve-month growth-momentum z-score. Household net worth, financial assets, equity/mutual-fund wealth, real estate, and liquid assets use a 70% level / 20% YoY / 10% six-month momentum blend because the stock of wealth itself can support consumption.

The page now intentionally gives the Wealth Effect bucket the largest weight at 35%, with the S&P 500 the largest input inside that bucket. Balance-sheet capacity is next, while retail categories keep enough weight to confirm that wealth is translating into actual spending.

Higher is constructive except gasoline-station growth, which is treated as restrictive because it can reflect price pressure rather than discretionary demand quality.

Consumer / Sentiment Methodology

The consumer composite blends University of Michigan sentiment tables, NY Fed consumer expectations and credit access, household credit stress, personal income growth, saving rate, debt service, and delinquency data.

State variables such as sentiment, inflation expectations, credit rejection, debt service, and delinquencies use a responsive 65% level / 35% three-month momentum z-score. Flow variables such as personal income and real spending use the same institutional 60% six-month / 40% twelve-month growth momentum method used in the Credit page.

Direction is explicitly polarity-adjusted: higher sentiment, income, saving, buying conditions, accepted credit, and retirement adequacy are supportive; higher inflation expectations, unemployment expectations, rejection/discouragement, debt service, delinquencies, and price/rate complaints are restrictive.