Monthly / Weekly Macro Update

Manufacturing Cycle Lens

Census/FRED new orders and shipments, regional Fed current and forward manufacturing surveys, prices, inventories, and backlog evidence in the same standalone chartdeck workflow as the credit overview.

Data refreshedJuly 25, 2026Latest FRED observation month: July 2026; 51 rendered chart panels
Manufacturing Score61.7ConstructiveComposite 0-100 cycle score
Breadth83.3%Buckets above neutral
1M Change0.9Score points
3M Change-3.9Score points
Available Inputs49Cached manufacturing series mapped to the panel
Rendered Charts51Gauge, history, combined views, and every panel input chart

Gauge And History

The standalone deck starts with the same manufacturing gauge and composite line used in the Macro Lens panel.

Manufacturing Cycle Gauge

Higher scores mean factory demand, capex-leading orders, shipments, and regional survey breadth are adding growth permission.

Manufacturing Score61.7Constructive
Breadth83.3%Buckets above neutral
1M Change0.9Score points
3M Change-3.9Score points

Manufacturing Cycle History

The composite line blends hard orders/shipments with Dallas, Empire State, and Philadelphia Fed current and future survey evidence.

Long History Versus ISM PMI

Manufacturing composite score back to 2005, paired with the ISM PMI.

Combined Manufacturing Charts

The two cross-series manufacturing views from the Macro Lens panel.

Core Orders And Shipments

Core capital goods orders and shipments are the cleanest hard-data capex bridge from factory demand to realized business investment.

Regional Fed New Orders

Current and future new-order diffusion indexes show whether regional surveys are leading hard factory data higher or lower.

Hard New Orders

Total manufacturing, durable goods, ex-transportation, core capex, capital goods, machinery, electronics, and consumer-goods orders define the factory demand impulse.

Total Manufacturing New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Durable Goods New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Durable Goods Ex Transportation Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Core Capex Orders Ex Aircraft

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Capital Goods New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Computers And Electronics Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Machinery New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Consumer Goods New Orders

Hard New Orders; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Hard Shipments

Shipments confirm whether orders are flowing into realized activity and business-investment contribution.

Core Capex Shipments Ex Aircraft

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Capital Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Total Manufacturing Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Durable Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Nondurable Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Consumer Goods Shipments

Hard Shipments; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted 6m/12m growth momentum z-score.

Regional Current Demand

Dallas, Empire State, and Philadelphia Fed current activity, production, new orders, and shipments show live factory breadth.

Dallas General Business Activity

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Production

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas New Orders

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Shipments

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire General Business Conditions

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire New Orders

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Shipments

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly General Activity

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly New Orders

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Shipments

Regional Current Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Regional Forward Demand

Future activity, production, new orders, shipments, and capex plans show whether the next leg of the factory cycle is broadening or fading.

Dallas Future Company Outlook

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Future Production

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Future New Orders

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Future Shipments

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Future Capex

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Future General Conditions

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Future New Orders

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Future Shipments

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Future General Activity

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Future New Orders

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Future Shipments

Regional Forward Demand; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Manufacturing Inflation And Margin Pressure

Regional prices paid and prices received identify whether stronger factory demand is being offset by cost pressure and margin risk.

Dallas Prices Paid

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Prices Received

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Future Prices Paid

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Prices Paid

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Prices Received

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Prices Paid

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Prices Received

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Future Prices Paid

Manufacturing Inflation / Margins; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Inventories And Backlog

Unfilled orders support future production; elevated inventories without orders can turn apparent growth into a liquidation risk.

Dallas Unfilled Orders

Inventories / Backlog; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Unfilled Orders

Inventories / Backlog; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Unfilled Orders

Inventories / Backlog; Higher is supportive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Dallas Finished Goods Inventory

Inventories / Backlog; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Empire Inventories

Inventories / Backlog; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.

Philly Inventories

Inventories / Backlog; Higher is restrictive; scored using outlier-adjusted level z-score.