NFIB Series Direction
Green means improving relative three-month direction; red means deterioration or pressure.
Apex Macro Small Business Workbench
NFIB Sentiment Chartdeck
NFIB Small Business Economic Trends workbench: executive sentiment read, multi-year directional heatmap, all local NFIB survey series, and every combined NFIB/FRED/finance chart rebuilt to match the example HTML decks.
Latest NFIB DataJune 30, 2026
NFIB Series28
Combined Charts40
Master Columns124
Executive Scoreboard
High-signal NFIB sentiment metrics, using the master data table and latest available observations.
NFIB Sentiment Score35.7
Soft regime; MoM 5.65
Small Business Optimism Index97.4
Composite survey barometer; MoM 2.10
Uncertainty Index89.0
Policy, sales, capex, and financing uncertainty; MoM -2.00
Outlook13.0
Expected economy/business conditions; MoM 10.0
Real Sales Expectations9.00
Expected real sales over the next three months; MoM 8.00
Hiring Plans11.0
Net share planning to increase employment; MoM 2.00
Current Job Openings32.0
Open positions firms are trying to fill; MoM 3.00
Quality Labor Problem19.0
Share citing labor quality as top issue; MoM 6.00
Price Plans32.0
Net share planning price increases; MoM -2.00
Compensation Plans17.0
Net share planning compensation increases; MoM -1.00
Capex Plans20.0
Net share planning capital outlays; MoM 4.00
Credit Conditions-5.00
Expected credit conditions; MoM -2.00
Earnings Trends-20.0
Earnings momentum; MoM -5.00
Strategist Playbook
Executive interpretation layer for the NFIB Small Business Economic Trends deck.
| Lens | Current Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|
| Cycle Read | Optimism 97.4 | The optimism index anchors the overall small-business sentiment regime. |
| Uncertainty | 89.0 | High uncertainty can restrain hiring, capital outlays, and inventory commitments. |
| Demand | Real sales expectations 9.00 | Sales expectations are the cleanest read on forward demand in the survey. |
| Labor | Hiring plans 11.0; quality labor problem 19.0 | Hiring intentions and labor quality pressure show whether small firms can add capacity. |
| Inflation | Price plans 32.0 | Price plans and actual price changes map Main Street inflation pressure. |
What Matters First
Optimism, uncertainty, real sales expectations, price plans, hiring plans, and labor quality are the first-pass macro read.
Directional Heatmap
The heatmap uses three-month directional z-scores so the deck can show which survey lines are improving or deteriorating together.
Policy Lens
Credit expectations, interest-rate pressure, capex plans, and inflation problems connect the survey to rates and financial conditions.
Growth Lens
Sales, earnings, inventories, capex, and hiring plans separate demand softness from margin or supply-side stress.
NFIB Directional Heatmap
Monthly three-month direction across the local NFIB data series, going back four years.
Signal Matrix
Latest common read: June 2026. Momentum columns are point changes in the survey net balance/index level.
| Series | Latest | MoM | 3M | 12M |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Plans to Increase Employment | 11.0 | 2.00 | -1.00 | -2.00 |
| Plans to Make Capital Outlays | 20.0 | 4.00 | 4.00 | -1.00 |
| Plans to Increase Inventories | -3.00 | -4.00 | 2.00 | -2.00 |
| Outlook for Business Conditions | 13.0 | 10.0 | 2.00 | -9.00 |
| Expect Real Sales Higher | 9.00 | 8.00 | 2.00 | 2.00 |
| Current Inventory | 0.00 | 4.00 | 5.00 | 5.00 |
| Current Job Openings | 32.0 | 3.00 | 0.00 | -4.00 |
| Expected Credit Conditions | -5.00 | -2.00 | 0.00 | -1.00 |
| Now a Good Time to Expand | 8.00 | 1.00 | -3.00 | -3.00 |
| Earnings Trends | -20.0 | -5.00 | 5.00 | 2.00 |
| Small Business Optimism Index | 97.4 | 2.10 | 1.60 | -1.20 |
| Uncertainty Index | 89.0 | -2.00 | -3.00 | 0.00 |
Overall NFIB Sentiment
Composite small-business sentiment score with recession shading and current-regime highlights.
The NFIB Sentiment Score is built from the actual survey series in this deck. Each input is converted to a historical percentile, then pressure variables are inverted so stronger sales, hiring, capex, and optimism raise the score while inflation, poor sales, labor constraints, uncertainty, and price pressure lower it.
Sentiment RegimeSoft
Composite score 35.7 on a 0-100 scale
3M Score Change3.67
Positive means the balance of NFIB inputs is improving
Positive Breadth4.76%
Share of score components above their historical median after polarity adjustment
Pressure Inputs89.0
Poor Sales: 7.00, Inflation: 21.0, Quality Labor: 19.0, Price Plans: 32.0, Uncertainty: 89.0
NFIB Sentiment Score
Composite score from survey percentiles; gray bands mark NBER recession months from FRED USREC.
Individual NFIB Series
28 NFIB survey series rebuilt from the master data table.
Actual Capital Expenditures
Survey lens: During the last six months, did you make capital expenditures for equipment, vehicles, expansion, or improvements? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Actual Capital Expenditures.
Actual Compensation Changes
Survey lens: Over the past three months, did you change average employee compensation? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Actual Compensation Changes.
Actual Inventory Changes
Survey lens: During the last three months, did your inventories increase, decrease, or stay the same? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Actual Inventory Changes.
Actual Price Changes
Survey lens: During the last three months, did you raise, lower, or leave selling prices unchanged? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Actual Price Changes.
Availability of Loans
Survey lens: Compared with three months ago, is credit easier or harder to obtain? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Availability of Loans.
Compensation Plans
Survey lens: Over the next three months, do you plan to raise employee compensation? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Compensation Plans.
Current Inventories
Survey lens: Are current inventory stocks too low, about right, or too high? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Current Inventory.
Earnings Trends
Survey lens: During the last three months, did your earnings improve, decline, or stay the same? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Earnings Trends.
Actual Employment Changes
Survey lens: Over the past three months, did your employment increase, decrease, or stay the same? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Actual Employment Changes.
Expected Credit Conditions
Survey lens: Over the next three months, do you expect credit conditions to ease or tighten? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Expected Credit Conditions.
Plans to Increase Employment
Survey lens: Over the next three months, do you plan to increase or reduce total employment? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Plans to Increase Employment.
Plans to Increase Inventories
Survey lens: Over the next three to six months, do you plan to increase or reduce inventories? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Plans to Increase Inventories.
Current Job Openings
Survey lens: Do you have any job openings that you are not able to fill right now? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Current Job Openings.
Plans to Make Capital Outlays
Survey lens: Over the next three to six months, do you plan to make capital outlays? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Plans to Make Capital Outlays.
Small Business Optimism Index
Survey lens: Composite index based on ten seasonally adjusted SBET survey indicators. Full history, 1990 through 2026-06; series field: Small Business Optimism Index.
Now a Good Time to Expand
Survey lens: Do you think the next three months will be a good time for small businesses to expand substantially? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Now a Good Time to Expand.
Outlook for Business Conditions
Survey lens: What about the economy in general: six months from now, do you expect business conditions to be better or worse? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Outlook for Business Conditions.
No or Few Qualified Applicants
Survey lens: If you filled or attempted to fill job openings, how many qualified applicants were there? Full history, 1993 through 2026-06; series field: No or Few Qualified Applicants for Job Openings.
Price Plans
Survey lens: Over the next three months, do you plan to raise, lower, or leave selling prices unchanged? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Price Plans.
Expected Real Sales Higher
Survey lens: Over the next three months, do you expect real sales to be higher or lower? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Expect Real Sales Higher.
Relative Interest Rate Paid
Survey lens: Compared with three months ago, are regular borrowers paying higher or lower interest rates? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Relative Interest Rate Paid by Regular Borrowers.
Actual Sales Trends
Survey lens: During the last three months, did your sales increase, decrease, or stay the same? Full history, 1986 through 2026-06; series field: Actual Sales Changes.
Single Biggest Problem: Poor Sales
Survey lens: What is the single most important problem facing your business: poor sales? Full history, 1975 through 2026-06; series field: Single Biggest Problem - Poor Sales.
Single Biggest Problem: Taxes
Survey lens: What is the single most important problem facing your business: taxes? Full history, 1985 through 2026-06; series field: Single Biggest Problem - Taxes.
Single Biggest Problem: Inflation
Survey lens: What is the single most important problem facing your business: inflation? Full history, 1985 through 2026-06; series field: Single Biggest Problem - Inflation.
Single Biggest Problem: Cost of Labor
Survey lens: What is the single most important problem facing your business: cost of labor? Full history, 1985 through 2026-06; series field: Single Biggest Problem - Cost of Labor.
Single Biggest Problem: Quality of Labor
Survey lens: What is the single most important problem facing your business: quality of labor? Full history, 1985 through 2026-06; series field: Single Biggest Problem - Quality of Labor.
Uncertainty Index
Survey lens: Composite index capturing uncertainty across selected SBET survey expectations. Full history, 1974 through 2026-06; series field: Uncertainty Index.
Combined NFIB Macro Charts
40 NFIB, FRED, and finance charts rebuilt from the master data table.
CORE PCE & NFIB Price Plans
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Gold and NFIB Uncertainty Index
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Actual Sales & Inverted U-3 Rate
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Capex & Real GDP
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
CAPEX Plans & 12M MA
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Compensation Plans vs Actual Compensation Changes
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Expected Real Sales & Compensation Plans
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Expected Sales and Actual Sales
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Hiring Intentions & Nonfarm Payrolls 3M MA
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Job Openings & Few Qualified Applicants
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Plans to Increase Employment & Actual Employment
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Price Plans-Actual Price Changes and CPI YoY
Rendered from master data table; 3 trace(s).
Single Biggest Problem - Inflation & Sales
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Single Biggest Problem Quality of Labor & Compensation
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Small Business Optimism Index-Recessions
Rendered from master data table; 1 trace(s).
Small Business Optimism MoM Change
Rendered from master data table; 1 trace(s).
NFIB Actual Sales & GDP YoY
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Actual Sales & ISM
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Compensation Plans & ECI
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Expected Credit Conditions & Banks Willingness to Loan
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Expected Credit Conditions & Delinquency Rates
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Expected Credit Conditions & EFFR
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Future Business Conditions & Empire State Outlook
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Hiring Intentions & Capex Plans
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Hiring Intentions 6 Month Change
Rendered from master data table; 1 trace(s).
NFIB Hiring Plans & 3M-10Y Curve
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Hiring Plans & U-3 Rate
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Hiring Plans & U-3
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Hiring Plans and Permanent Job Losers
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Plans for Outlays & Copper
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Plans to Increase Employment & Hours Worked
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Plans to Increase Employment & ISM Employment Index
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Plans to Make Outlays & Shipments
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Poor Sales & U-3 Rate
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Small Business Optimism Index and Business Outlook
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Small Business Optimism YoY Change vs Fed Funds Rate Minus Core CPI YoY Change
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Small Business Optimism YoY Change vs Russell 2000 YoY Change
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB- Compensation Plans & Quality of Labor
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Current Job Openings & Inverted U-3 Unemployment Rate
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
NFIB Current Job Openings & JOLTS Job Openings
Rendered from master data table; 2 trace(s).
Definitions
Series labels, construction notes, and source context.
| Term | Definition |
|---|---|
| SBET | NFIB Small Business Economic Trends, the monthly survey of NFIB member small businesses. |
| Optimism Index Components | Plans to increase employment, capital outlays, inventories, expected economy, expected real sales, current inventory, current job openings, expected credit conditions, expansion timing, and earnings trends. |
| Net Balance | Most NFIB component series are net percentages, such as positive responses minus negative responses. |
| Directional z-score | A standardized three-month change used only for the heatmap so dissimilar series can be compared visually. |
| Label Mapping | Chart titles are mapped from the actual local NFIB series fields; survey subtitles are descriptive lenses based on the NFIB questionnaire and SBET component language. |
| Sentiment Score | Each selected NFIB input is ranked against its own history on a 0-100 scale; pressure variables are inverted before averaging. |
| Combined Charts | Existing NFIB charts paired with FRED, finance, or market data; the new deck rebuilds those chart traces from the master data table and applies the example HTML style. |
Build Method
- NFIB survey files are consolidated into a master data table for individual series, executive metrics, and the directional heatmap.
- Combined macro and finance chart traces are consolidated into the same master table before chart rendering.
- Source links: NFIB monthly SBET report and NFIB SBET indicator selector.
Official NFIB web context: monthly SBET report and indicator selector.