Executive Command Page
CIO-level summary of current PM Action, risk-control warnings, and add/watch candidates supported by Forward Return Evidence.
PM Read
Neutral / selective. Use options evidence as a timing and sizing layer. Favor symbols where raw options pressure is supported by Forward Return Evidence.
Asset / portfolio read: If add/watch names supported by Forward Return Evidence are expanding, options can support more exposure after price and breadth confirm. If risk-control names are expanding, options should lower allocation confidence or tighten sizing.
How To Treat The Raw Metrics
Put/call, IV, call activity, gamma, and wall levels describe the options tape. They do not automatically say up or down.
Asset / portfolio read: PM Action, Validation Read, and Forward Return Evidence tell whether today's raw setup has historically been favorable, unfavorable, contrarian, or only context.
Signal Confidence
54% of the current universe has Forward Return Evidence that supports the way the signal is being used today.
Asset / portfolio read: Confidence rises when the current raw-pressure bucket has enough history and either has been the best bucket or has shown that elevated options pressure was followed by better 60D forward returns.
Generated PM Narrative
Highest-confidence current reads: GOOGL, SMH, QQQ. Highest raw options pressure: SMH, TSLA, XLK; use Forward Return Evidence before calling it an add/watch signal. Forward-return evidence supports add/watch: SMH, XLK, QQQ, MSFT. High raw options pressure but Forward Return Evidence warns: XLP, SLV, GLD, XLV.
Asset / portfolio read: Use the named add/watch symbols as candidates for higher allocation only after chart confirmation. Use warning symbols as risk-control flags, not contrarian buys.
Add / Watch Candidates
- GOOGL AlphabetTrim chase risk: Upside demand is crowded enough that fresh long exposure needs a higher bar.
- MSFT MicrosoftWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- QQQ Nasdaq 100Watch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- SMH SemiconductorsWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- XLK TechnologyWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- AMZN AmazonWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- TSLA TeslaWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- XLB MaterialsWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
Top Warnings
- SMH SemiconductorsWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- TSLA TeslaWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- AMZN AmazonWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- AAPL AppleContrarian add/watch: Raw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced better 60D forward returns.
- XLP Consumer StaplesRisk control: Raw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced worse 60D forward returns.
- SLV SilverRisk control: Raw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced worse 60D forward returns.
Crowded Upside Watch
- GOOGL AlphabetTrim chase risk: Upside demand is crowded enough that fresh long exposure needs a higher bar.
- MSFT MicrosoftWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- QQQ Nasdaq 100Watch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- SMH SemiconductorsWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- AMZN AmazonWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- TSLA TeslaWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- IEF Intermediate TreasurySelective: Options evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
- META MetaContrarian add/watch: Raw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced better 60D forward returns.
High Raw Options Pressure
- MSFT MicrosoftWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- QQQ Nasdaq 100Watch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- SMH SemiconductorsWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- XLK TechnologyWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- AMZN AmazonWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- TSLA TeslaWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- XLB MaterialsWatch for add setup: Raw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
- AAPL AppleContrarian add/watch: Raw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced better 60D forward returns.
Current Read-Through
Options pressure is 52/100, calm options tape is 58/100, and near-term path risk is 48/100.
Asset / portfolio read: If options pressure rises, the asset/universe is moving toward add/watch only when PM Action and Forward Return Evidence confirm it. If path risk rises at the same time, expect a rougher path before any payoff.
Caveat: These are end-of-day option-chain estimates. Dealer positioning is inferred from listed open interest, not from a true dealer book.
How To Use This Deck
Start with the Raw Options Dashboard, then check PM Action, Validation Read, and Forward Return Evidence. The Strategist deck should consume forward_return_setup_score plus pm_action, not the calm tape score.
Asset / portfolio read: If PM Action says add/watch, rising raw options pressure can support allocation interest. If PM Action says risk control, rising raw options pressure is a warning, not an allocation add.
What The Gauge Means
This composite summarizes raw put/call, IV, gamma, hedge-demand, and calm-tape readings. It is not an immediate direction forecast.
Asset / portfolio read: High means the raw options tape has more pressure in it. PM Action and Forward Return Evidence decide whether that pressure has historically been add/watch, risk-control, or only entry discipline.
Caveat: For allocation, use this gauge with PM Action, Forward Return Evidence, price, breadth, VAMS, and credit. Do not use it as a standalone buy/sell switch.
Raw Metrics First
The deck starts with put/call, IV, IV versus realized volatility, call activity, gamma, and call/put walls because those are the observable option-chain facts.
Options Pressure Composite
This is the summary of the raw metrics. High means the tape has more pressure in it. It is add/watch only when PM Action and forward-return validation agree.
Calm Options Tape
High means options are calm: less protection demand, less IV pressure, and more stable gamma/call support. Calm is not automatically bullish; it can also mean less forward-return edge.
Call Activity
High means traders are paying for upside. It can confirm leadership when IV is reasonable, but high call activity plus high IV means upside is crowded and fresh longs need a higher bar.
Protection Demand
High means puts, put open interest, or IV pressure are elevated. It can mean near-term downside risk, or a future add/watch setup if validation says similar pressure was later rewarded.
Path Risk
High means the asset can move sharply because protection demand, IV pressure, weak gamma, or put impulse are elevated. It is a sizing/timing warning, not an automatic sell signal.
Gamma / Walls
Gamma and open interest help locate where price may pin, grind, stall, or break. They are path tools, not direction calls by themselves.
Raw Options Dashboard
Recognizable metrics first: put/call, IV, IV versus realized volatility, call activity, gamma, and walls.
How To Read This Page
This is the raw-metric front door. Start here before reading any composite score.
Asset / portfolio read: Put/call tells you whether hedging is building, IV tells you whether movement is expensive, call activity tells you whether upside is crowded, gamma/walls tell you where price may pin or break, and validation tells you whether that raw setup has historically helped or hurt the asset.
Allocation Rule
Raw metrics explain what traders are paying for; they do not decide direction by themselves.
Asset / portfolio read: Raise exposure only when raw pressure, PM Action, forward-return evidence, and price/breadth confirmation agree. Cut or tighten risk when raw pressure is high but validation says similar readings led to worse returns.
Put/Call Volume
Today's put volume versus call volume.
When it rises: Rising means more downside hedging or bearish demand. It can make the asset's near-term path rougher.
Put/Call Open Interest
Existing put contracts versus existing call contracts.
When it rises: Rising means more downside hedge stock is already sitting in the chain; put-wall levels matter more.
30D ATM IV
The market's annualized movement price at the money, standardized to a 30-calendar-day maturity.
When it rises: Rising means traders are paying more for movement. It is uncertainty priced, not automatically a bearish call.
IV / Realized Vol
Option-implied movement divided by the asset's recent actual movement.
When it rises: Rising means options are expensive versus recent price action; buying new premium costs more.
Call Activity
Fresh call trading relative to the existing call open-interest base.
When it rises: Rising can confirm leadership when IV is reasonable. Rising with high IV can mean expensive upside chase.
Gamma Stability
The amount of near-price option gamma and open interest that can dampen or pin moves.
When it rises: Higher can support a steadier grind around wall levels. Lower can allow larger moves once price breaks.
Call / Put Walls
The strikes with the largest call and put open interest.
When it rises: They are potential price magnets, resistance, support, or hedge-trigger zones, not automatic targets.
ETF Volatility + Flow Snapshots
Actionable ETF decision tables: option premium versus realized movement, then current put/call flow, standing positioning, call activity, and gamma support.
What This Snapshot Does
It puts implied volatility, realized volatility, and the option premium in one decision table for the ETF universe.
Asset / portfolio read: IV minus realized volatility tells you what the option market charges for future movement versus what the ETF recently delivered. It is about option cost and expected movement, not a forecast that the ETF must rise or fall.
How To Read The Percentiles
Each percentile is measured against that ETF's own trailing one-year history. Blue/green cells are relatively low readings; gold/red cells are relatively high readings.
Asset / portfolio read: High percentile means unusual, not automatically bearish. The Portfolio Read explains the immediate risk-management implication; PM Action and Forward Return Evidence still decide whether the underlying is an add, hold, or risk-control candidate.
30D ATM IV is a fixed-maturity at-the-money implied-volatility estimate built from near-50-delta calls and puts, with total-variance interpolation across expiries bracketing 30 calendar days. Realized volatility is annualized from the last 21 trading days of ETF prices. IV - RV is shown in percentage points: a positive value means options price more movement than the ETF recently realized; a negative value means options price less movement. 25D put-call skew is downside-put IV minus upside-call IV: a higher value means protection costs more than upside optionality. Neither measure predicts whether the ETF will rise or fall.
Market ETFs
| ETF | 30D ATM IV | 1W Chg | IV Pctl (1Y) | 21D Realized Vol | IV - RV | IV/RV Pctl (1Y) | 25D Put-Call Skew | Skew Pctl (1Y) | Current Condition / PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 |
15.1% | +1.5 pp | 71 | 9.0% | +6.2 pp | 68 | +6.8 pp | 78 | IV is 6.2 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| QQQ Nasdaq 100 |
25.7% | +1.3 pp | 92 | 18.2% | +7.6 pp | 46 | +7.8 pp | 80 | IV is 7.6 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| IWM Russell 2000 |
20.4% | +1.8 pp | 25 | 10.3% | +10.0 pp | 96 | +6.2 pp | 78 | IV is 10.0 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| DIA Dow Jones |
13.7% | +1.0 pp | 57 | 8.8% | +4.9 pp | 86 | +3.9 pp | 52 | IV is 4.9 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| RSP Equal-Weight S&P 500 |
11.7% | +0.2 pp | 10 | 7.6% | +4.0 pp | 51 | +16.7 pp | 85 | IV is 4.0 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| VTI Total Market |
15.2% | +0.6 pp | 58 | 10.4% | +4.8 pp | 72 | +5.9 pp | 44 | IV is 4.8 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
Sector ETFs
| ETF | 30D ATM IV | 1W Chg | IV Pctl (1Y) | 21D Realized Vol | IV - RV | IV/RV Pctl (1Y) | 25D Put-Call Skew | Skew Pctl (1Y) | Current Condition / PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK Technology |
34.7% | +1.0 pp | 94 | 22.7% | +12.0 pp | 65 | +7.1 pp | 61 | IV is 12.0 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary |
25.7% | -0.4 pp | 86 | 19.8% | +5.9 pp | 37 | -9.8 pp | 5 | IV is 5.9 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is low versus its own history, so downside put protection is relatively less expensive than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| XLC Communication Services |
21.9% | +6.7 pp | 84 | 17.8% | +4.1 pp | 15 | -2.8 pp | 11 | IV is 4.1 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is low versus its own history, so downside put protection is relatively less expensive than upside calls. PM use: IV rose quickly this week, so the market is repricing more near-term movement. Tighten new position size until price confirms direction. |
| XLF Financials |
15.2% | -7.6 pp | 22 | 10.4% | +4.9 pp | 52 | +16.0 pp | 97 | IV is 4.9 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: IV fell quickly this week, so previously priced event pressure is easing. Follow price trend and breadth rather than treating cheaper options as bullish by themselves. |
| XLI Industrials |
20.9% | +1.0 pp | 62 | 11.2% | +9.8 pp | 85 | +6.9 pp | 49 | IV is 9.8 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| XLE Energy |
28.8% | +4.3 pp | 86 | 16.6% | +12.2 pp | 80 | +0.4 pp | 21 | IV is 12.2 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: new hedges are expensive; only pay up for protection when price and portfolio risk justify it. This is not a directional sell signal. |
| XLB Materials |
34.0% | +21.9 pp | 71 | 15.3% | +18.6 pp | 66 | +25.4 pp | 69 | IV is 18.6 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: IV rose quickly this week, so the market is repricing more near-term movement. Tighten new position size until price confirms direction. |
| XLU Utilities |
32.1% | -5.6 pp | 92 | 11.7% | +20.3 pp | 94 | +8.8 pp | 84 | IV is 20.3 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: new hedges are expensive; only pay up for protection when price and portfolio risk justify it. This is not a directional sell signal. |
| XLRE Real Estate |
13.6% | -0.5 pp | 16 | 13.8% | -0.2 pp | 6 | +5.0 pp | 56 | IV is within 1 percentage point of 21-day realized volatility (-0.2 pp). Options are pricing roughly the movement the ETF has recently delivered. PM use: option protection costs little versus this ETF's history; check whether the portfolio is under-hedged. This is not an automatic buy signal. |
| XLV Health Care |
17.9% | +1.9 pp | 63 | 15.4% | +2.5 pp | 28 | +8.6 pp | 71 | IV is 2.5 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| XLP Consumer Staples |
22.6% | -5.5 pp | 77 | 16.0% | +6.6 pp | 37 | +7.5 pp | 76 | IV is 6.6 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: IV fell quickly this week, so previously priced event pressure is easing. Follow price trend and breadth rather than treating cheaper options as bullish by themselves. |
| SMH Semiconductors |
56.4% | +0.9 pp | 97 | 36.4% | +20.1 pp | 67 | +9.8 pp | 94 | IV is 20.1 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| XHB Homebuilders |
28.5% | -3.4 pp | 21 | 21.2% | +7.3 pp | 46 | +18.1 pp | 93 | IV is 7.3 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: IV fell quickly this week, so previously priced event pressure is easing. Follow price trend and breadth rather than treating cheaper options as bullish by themselves. |
| KRE Regional Banks |
30.4% | +4.2 pp | 69 | 17.2% | +13.2 pp | 69 | +12.4 pp | 80 | IV is 13.2 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: IV rose quickly this week, so the market is repricing more near-term movement. Tighten new position size until price confirms direction. |
Cross-Asset ETFs
| ETF | 30D ATM IV | 1W Chg | IV Pctl (1Y) | 21D Realized Vol | IV - RV | IV/RV Pctl (1Y) | 25D Put-Call Skew | Skew Pctl (1Y) | Current Condition / PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT Long Duration Treasury |
10.4% | +1.6 pp | 34 | 5.3% | +5.2 pp | 98 | +2.0 pp | 48 | IV is 5.2 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| IEF Intermediate Treasury |
6.2% | +0.8 pp | 62 | 3.4% | +2.8 pp | 73 | +2.6 pp | 85 | IV is 2.8 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| HYG High Yield Credit |
4.9% | +3.4 pp | 46 | 2.2% | +2.7 pp | 60 | +5.5 pp | 52 | IV is 2.7 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: IV rose quickly this week, so the market is repricing more near-term movement. Tighten new position size until price confirms direction. |
| LQD Investment Grade Credit |
6.5% | +0.6 pp | 55 | 3.9% | +2.7 pp | 53 | +4.2 pp | 81 | IV is 2.7 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| GLD Gold |
22.0% | -2.4 pp | 41 | 18.5% | +3.5 pp | 41 | +2.9 pp | 88 | IV is 3.5 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| SLV Silver |
43.0% | -1.4 pp | 38 | 33.7% | +9.2 pp | 55 | +1.6 pp | 85 | IV is 9.2 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. 25-delta put skew is high versus its own history, so downside puts cost noticeably more than upside calls. PM use: no clear option-cost extreme. Use PM Action, price trend, and forward-return evidence for direction. |
| USO Oil |
67.3% | +11.8 pp | 77 | 42.7% | +24.7 pp | 74 | -10.7 pp | 31 | IV is 24.7 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: IV rose quickly this week, so the market is repricing more near-term movement. Tighten new position size until price confirms direction. |
| UUP Dollar |
45.4% | +22.4 pp | 98 | 3.6% | +41.8 pp | 99 | n/a | n/a | IV is 41.8 percentage points above 21-day realized volatility. Options are pricing a larger future move than the ETF has recently delivered, so option protection is relatively costly. PM use: new hedges are expensive; only pay up for protection when price and portfolio risk justify it. This is not a directional sell signal. |
ETF Flow + Positioning Snapshot
Put/call volume shows today's directional hedging flow. Put/call open interest shows the standing hedge base. Call volume divided by call open interest flags potentially fresh upside activity. Gamma is a 0-100 stability score: higher can dampen moves near major option strikes; lower can allow larger price swings.
Market ETFs
| ETF | Put/Call Vol | 1W Chg | P/C Vol Pctl (1Y) | Put/Call OI | P/C OI Pctl (1Y) | Call Vol / OI | Gamma | Current Condition / PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| SPY S&P 500 |
1.26 | +0.12 | 59 | 1.90 | 10 | 0.99 | 67 | Put/call volume is 1.26 (59th percentile); gamma is 67/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| QQQ Nasdaq 100 |
1.18 | -0.07 | 56 | 1.37 | 2 | 0.90 | 78 | Call volume versus call open interest is at the 84th percentile and IV is at the 92th percentile. Fresh upside activity is occurring when options are already expensive. This can mean crowded upside demand, not that the ETF must fall. PM use: do not chase upside without price confirmation. |
| IWM Russell 2000 |
2.04 | +0.48 | 80 | 2.72 | 77 | 0.20 | 65 | Put/call volume is 2.04 (80th percentile); gamma is 65/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| DIA Dow Jones |
1.33 | +0.33 | 62 | 1.41 | 2 | 0.07 | 67 | Put/call volume is 1.33 (62th percentile); gamma is 67/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| RSP Equal-Weight S&P 500 |
1.26 | +0.39 | 71 | 0.98 | 9 | 0.03 | 83 | Put/call volume is 1.26 (71th percentile); gamma is 83/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| VTI Total Market |
0.38 | +0.20 | 27 | 0.62 | 70 | 0.02 | 55 | Put/call volume is 0.38 (27th percentile); gamma is 55/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
Sector ETFs
| ETF | Put/Call Vol | 1W Chg | P/C Vol Pctl (1Y) | Put/Call OI | P/C OI Pctl (1Y) | Call Vol / OI | Gamma | Current Condition / PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLK Technology |
1.74 | +0.50 | 73 | 1.74 | 28 | 0.03 | 71 | Put/call volume is 1.74 (73th percentile); gamma is 71/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLY Consumer Discretionary |
3.55 | -47.80 | 80 | 3.28 | 92 | 0.01 | 97 | Put/call volume is 3.55 (80th percentile); gamma is 97/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLC Communication Services |
0.44 | -0.30 | 27 | 6.14 | 58 | 0.05 | 96 | Put/call volume is 0.44 (27th percentile); gamma is 96/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLF Financials |
1.16 | +0.46 | 43 | 1.41 | 10 | 0.02 | 26 | Put/call volume is 1.16 (43th percentile); gamma is 26/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLI Industrials |
1.71 | -12.31 | 38 | 3.36 | 54 | 0.03 | 5 | Put/call volume is 1.71 (38th percentile); gamma is 5/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLE Energy |
1.35 | +0.44 | 66 | 1.51 | 19 | 0.05 | 65 | Put/call volume is 1.35 (66th percentile); gamma is 65/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLB Materials |
2.17 | -161.24 | 70 | 0.62 | 11 | 0.01 | 41 | Put/call volume is 2.17 (70th percentile); gamma is 41/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLU Utilities |
1.29 | +0.20 | 72 | 2.39 | 21 | 0.02 | 82 | Put/call volume is 1.29 (72th percentile); gamma is 82/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLRE Real Estate |
0.12 | -0.41 | 21 | 1.13 | 38 | 0.19 | 26 | Put/call volume is 0.12 (21th percentile); gamma is 26/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLV Health Care |
1.27 | +0.43 | 77 | 1.29 | 42 | 0.02 | 70 | Put/call volume is 1.27 (77th percentile); gamma is 70/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| XLP Consumer Staples |
1.58 | -0.37 | 43 | 3.31 | 30 | 0.09 | 25 | Put/call volume is 1.58 (43th percentile); gamma is 25/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| SMH Semiconductors |
5.59 | +2.25 | 92 | 2.84 | 86 | 0.13 | 98 | Call volume versus call open interest is at the 83th percentile and IV is at the 98th percentile. Fresh upside activity is occurring when options are already expensive. This can mean crowded upside demand, not that the ETF must fall. PM use: do not chase upside without price confirmation. |
| XHB Homebuilders |
0.56 | -0.14 | 31 | 1.74 | 95 | 0.03 | 13 | Put/call volume is 0.56 (31th percentile); gamma is 13/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| KRE Regional Banks |
3.13 | +1.80 | 86 | 2.11 | 76 | 0.02 | 43 | Put/call volume is 3.13 (86th percentile); gamma is 43/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
Cross-Asset ETFs
| ETF | Put/Call Vol | 1W Chg | P/C Vol Pctl (1Y) | Put/Call OI | P/C OI Pctl (1Y) | Call Vol / OI | Gamma | Current Condition / PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TLT Long Duration Treasury |
0.35 | -0.19 | 6 | 0.65 | 33 | 0.06 | 88 | Put/call volume is 0.35 (6th percentile) and gamma is 88/100. Put demand is light versus this ETF's history and higher gamma can dampen moves near major strikes. This points to a steadier path, not an automatic bullish signal. PM use: confirm with price trend and validation before adding exposure. |
| IEF Intermediate Treasury |
0.10 | -2.25 | 4 | 1.07 | 29 | 0.06 | 63 | Put/call volume is 0.10 (4th percentile); gamma is 63/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| HYG High Yield Credit |
1.58 | -2.91 | 8 | 3.05 | 0 | 0.06 | 74 | Put/call volume is 1.58 (8th percentile) and gamma is 74/100. Put demand is light versus this ETF's history and higher gamma can dampen moves near major strikes. This points to a steadier path, not an automatic bullish signal. PM use: confirm with price trend and validation before adding exposure. |
| LQD Investment Grade Credit |
0.74 | -7.71 | 24 | 1.95 | 24 | 0.21 | 77 | Put/call volume is 0.74 (24th percentile); gamma is 77/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| GLD Gold |
0.75 | -2.10 | 73 | 0.50 | 21 | 0.04 | 2 | Put/call volume is 0.75 (73th percentile); gamma is 2/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| SLV Silver |
0.50 | -0.67 | 48 | 0.49 | 20 | 0.04 | 5 | Put/call volume is 0.50 (48th percentile); gamma is 5/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
| USO Oil |
0.48 | -0.12 | 11 | 1.12 | 59 | 0.28 | 80 | Call volume versus call open interest is at the 88th percentile and IV is at the 89th percentile. Fresh upside activity is occurring when options are already expensive. This can mean crowded upside demand, not that the ETF must fall. PM use: do not chase upside without price confirmation. |
| UUP Dollar |
0.10 | -8.02 | 21 | 0.48 | 52 | 0.01 | 89 | Put/call volume is 0.10 (21th percentile); gamma is 89/100. No single flow extreme dominates. PM use: let price trend, PM Action, and forward-return evidence determine direction. |
Relative Implied-Volatility Gallery
These are five-day averages of daily at-the-money implied-volatility relationships, shown across the entire clean history stored in the options database. They are not trade signals by themselves. Use them to locate where option markets are charging relatively more for uncertainty. A high percentile means the relationship is unusually wide versus its full stored history.
IWM minus QQQ 30D ATM IV
When this rises, small-cap option uncertainty is becoming more expensive than Nasdaq uncertainty. Top: IWM/QQQ price ratio. Rising means IWM is outperforming QQQ; falling means it is underperforming.
QQQ minus SPY 30D ATM IV
When this rises, Nasdaq uncertainty is becoming more expensive than broad-market uncertainty. Top: QQQ/SPY price ratio. Rising means QQQ is outperforming SPY; falling means it is underperforming.
SMH minus SPY 30D ATM IV
When this rises, semiconductor uncertainty is becoming more expensive than broad-market uncertainty. Top: SMH/SPY price ratio. Rising means SMH is outperforming SPY; falling means it is underperforming.
HYG minus LQD 30D ATM IV
When this rises, option pricing is showing more concern around lower-quality credit than investment-grade credit. Top: HYG/LQD price ratio. Rising means HYG is outperforming LQD; falling means it is underperforming.
HYG minus TLT 30D ATM IV
When this rises, uncertainty is concentrating more in credit than in long-duration Treasuries. Top: HYG/TLT price ratio. Rising means HYG is outperforming TLT; falling means it is underperforming.
XLY minus XLP 30D ATM IV
When this rises, discretionary-sector uncertainty is becoming more expensive than defensive-staples uncertainty. Top: XLY/XLP price ratio. Rising means XLY is outperforming XLP; falling means it is underperforming.
XLK minus XLU 30D ATM IV
When this rises, technology uncertainty is becoming more expensive than the defensive-utilities complex. Top: XLK/XLU price ratio. Rising means XLK is outperforming XLU; falling means it is underperforming.
XLF minus XLV 30D ATM IV
When this rises, financial-sector uncertainty is becoming more expensive than health-care uncertainty. Top: XLF/XLV price ratio. Rising means XLF is outperforming XLV; falling means it is underperforming.
USO minus GLD 30D ATM IV
When this rises, energy uncertainty is becoming more expensive than gold uncertainty. Top: USO/GLD price ratio. Rising means USO is outperforming GLD; falling means it is underperforming.
GLD minus TLT 30D ATM IV
When this rises, option pricing is attaching more uncertainty to gold than to long-duration Treasuries. Top: GLD/TLT price ratio. Rising means GLD is outperforming TLT; falling means it is underperforming.
Sector IV Dispersion
Higher dispersion means option pricing is becoming more selective across sectors rather than moving as one market-wide block.
ETF Price + Raw Options Panels
The primary single-asset view: one-year price above each raw options metric, threshold bands below, and the current value plus own-history percentile in the upper-right corner.
How To Read These Panels
Every chart uses the same structure: price on top, one raw options metric below, then the current reading and its own-history percentile in the upper-right corner.
Asset / portfolio read: Watch whether a metric rises as price falls, rises with price, or fades as price recovers. The panel describes the option market around that asset; PM Action and Forward Return Evidence say whether that setup has historically helped or hurt returns.
Threshold Bands
Blue is the lower 20% of the asset's own raw-metric history and gold is the upper 20%. For gamma stability and call activity scores, the bands use 35 and 65.
Asset / portfolio read: An upper band means the option metric is unusually high, not automatically bearish. A lower band means it is unusually low, not automatically bullish. Use the action and validation read beside the charts.
Index / Market
Each chart shows the current metric and its percentile versus that asset's own options history in the upper-right corner. Threshold bands are 20th/80th percentiles for raw values and 35/65 for 0-100 scores.
SPY - S&P 500
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
QQQ - Nasdaq 100
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
Watch for add setupRaw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
Forward-return evidence: Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
IWM - Russell 2000
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
DIA - Dow Jones
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
RSP - Equal-Weight S&P 500
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
Sector / Industry
Each chart shows the current metric and its percentile versus that asset's own options history in the upper-right corner. Threshold bands are 20th/80th percentiles for raw values and 35/65 for 0-100 scores.
XLK - Technology
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
Watch for add setupRaw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
Forward-return evidence: Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
XLY - Consumer Discretionary
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
XLC - Communication Services
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
XLF - Financials
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
XLE - Energy
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
Contrarian add/watchRaw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced better 60D forward returns.
Forward-return evidence: High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
XLV - Health Care
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
Risk controlRaw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced worse 60D forward returns.
Forward-return evidence: High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
SMH - Semiconductors
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
Watch for add setupRaw options pressure is high; use price, breadth, PM Action, and Forward Return Evidence to decide whether it is tradable or only a risk-control warning.
Forward-return evidence: Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
KRE - Regional Banks
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
Rates / Credit
Each chart shows the current metric and its percentile versus that asset's own options history in the upper-right corner. Threshold bands are 20th/80th percentiles for raw values and 35/65 for 0-100 scores.
TLT - Long Duration Treasury
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
Low edge / do not chaseOptions are calm, but the current deck-level backtest says low raw options pressure often carries less forward-return edge.
Forward-return evidence: Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
HYG - High Yield Credit
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
Commodity / Currency
Each chart shows the current metric and its percentile versus that asset's own options history in the upper-right corner. Threshold bands are 20th/80th percentiles for raw values and 35/65 for 0-100 scores.
GLD - Gold
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
Risk controlRaw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced worse 60D forward returns.
Forward-return evidence: High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
Single-Name Leadership
Each chart shows the current metric and its percentile versus that asset's own options history in the upper-right corner. Threshold bands are 20th/80th percentiles for raw values and 35/65 for 0-100 scores.
NVDA - Nvidia
One-year price is always on top. The option metric sits below with blue lower-history and gold upper-history threshold bands.
SelectiveOptions evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence.
Forward-return evidence: Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
What Changed
One-run changes in the raw options pressure tape and evidence-aware regime alerts.
What Changed Since Last Run
This page isolates the biggest one-day moves in raw options pressure, calm options tape, near-term path risk, and protection demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If Options Pressure Chg is rising, the asset is moving toward add/watch only if PM Action and Forward Return Evidence agree; if it is falling, the edge is fading. If Path Risk or Protection Demand is rising, near-term downside/path risk is rising even if the later setup may improve.
Regime Change Alerts
Bucket changes and large raw-pressure, path-risk, or protection-demand moves are summarized in the cards below.
Asset / portfolio read: For each asset, read the alert as: add/watch if Forward Return Evidence says similar pressure led to better 60D returns; risk control if it says similar pressure led to worse 60D returns.
TLT Long Duration Treasury
Pressure-28.3Path risk-26.6Protection-39.4
Raw-pressure bucket changed: Neutral Options Pressure to Low Options Pressure; Raw options pressure fell sharply; Path risk fell; Protection demand fell
XLV Health Care
Pressure29.7Path risk21.6Protection37.6
Raw-pressure bucket changed: Low Options Pressure to Building Options Pressure; Raw options pressure rose sharply; Path risk rose; Protection demand rose; Elevated raw options pressure has been a risk-control signal for this symbol
UUP Dollar
Pressure-8.1Path risk-9.9Protection-31.0
Protection demand fell
GOOGL Alphabet
Pressure-20.6Path risk-28.8Protection-18.8
Raw-pressure bucket changed: High Options Pressure to Building Options Pressure; Raw options pressure fell sharply; Path risk fell; Protection demand fell
DIA Dow Jones
Pressure-22.7Path risk-21.7Protection-25.8
Raw-pressure bucket changed: Building Options Pressure to Neutral Options Pressure; Raw options pressure fell sharply; Path risk fell; Protection demand fell
GLD Gold
Pressure-18.6Path risk-17.6Protection-24.2
Raw-pressure bucket changed: High Options Pressure to Building Options Pressure; Raw options pressure fell sharply; Path risk fell; Protection demand fell; Elevated raw options pressure has been a risk-control signal for this symbol
XLRE Real Estate
Pressure13.3Path risk19.4Protection14.3
Raw options pressure rose sharply; Path risk rose; Protection demand rose
SMH Semiconductors
Pressure13.0Path risk11.9Protection19.4
Raw options pressure rose sharply; Path risk rose; Protection demand rose
SPY S&P 500
Pressure-16.9Path risk-18.9Protection-12.0
Raw-pressure bucket changed: High Options Pressure to Building Options Pressure; Raw options pressure fell sharply; Path risk fell; Protection demand fell; Elevated raw options pressure has been add/watch for this symbol
XLY Consumer Discretionary
Pressure-16.9Path risk-16.2Protection-17.4
Raw-pressure bucket changed: High Options Pressure to Building Options Pressure; Raw options pressure fell sharply; Path risk fell; Protection demand fell; Elevated raw options pressure has been add/watch for this symbol
HYG High Yield Credit
Pressure-14.1Path risk-15.5Protection-14.3
Raw-pressure bucket changed: Building Options Pressure to Neutral Options Pressure; Raw options pressure fell sharply; Path risk fell; Protection demand fell
KRE Regional Banks
Pressure6.3Path risk8.1Protection-2.0
No major change
PM Action Matrix
Current symbol-by-symbol PM Action, confidence, Why Included, and Forward Return Evidence.
How To Read The Action Matrix
PM Action is the usable interpretation of the raw options tape after validation. Add/watch means elevated raw pressure can support exposure after price confirmation; risk control means elevated raw pressure should reduce risk appetite for that asset.
Asset / portfolio read: The Strategist deck should use PM Action and Options Pressure together. It should not treat Path Risk as an automatic sell signal or Calm Tape as an automatic buy signal.
Confidence Score
Confidence blends validation quality, current-bucket history, sample size, raw-pressure strength, and gamma context.
Asset / portfolio read: High confidence means the asset signal can carry more weight. Low confidence means defer to price, breadth, macro, and portfolio context.
Contrarian add/watch
META, USO, XLE, AAPL
Low edge / do not chase
UUP, TLT, XLRE
Risk control
XLV, GLD, SLV, XLP
Selective
IEF, DIA, HYG, IWM, LQD, RSP, SPY, XLC
Trim chase risk
GOOGL
Watch for add setup
MSFT, QQQ, SMH, XLK, AMZN, TSLA, XLB
IV Versus Realized Vol
Is the options market pricing too much movement, too little, or a fair volatility premium?
What IV/RV Means
IV/RV compares the option market's implied volatility to the asset's recent realized volatility. Above 1.0 means options price more movement than the asset has recently delivered.
Asset / portfolio read: If IV/RV rises, hedges and options are getting more expensive for that asset and event premium is rising. If IV/RV falls, convexity may be cheaper, but it can also mean complacent option pricing.
How To Use It
High IV/RV is not automatically bearish; it says the market is charging more for volatility. The 30D forward-return column shows what the asset historically did after prior readings in the same IV/RV quintile.
Asset / portfolio read: For allocation, high IV/RV plus high path risk argues for risk discipline. Low IV/RV plus favorable Forward Return Evidence can make hedges or upside convexity more attractive.
Flow And IV Tape
Core cross-asset put/call and implied-volatility tape.
Gamma / Wall Distance Dashboard
Distance from spot to the dominant call and put open-interest walls for raw-chain symbols.
What Wall Distance Means
Call and put walls show where open interest is clustered. Distance from spot tells whether price is near a potential magnet, resistance zone, support cluster, or hedge trigger.
Asset / portfolio read: If price is near a call wall, upside can stall or pin unless momentum overwhelms it. If price is near a put wall, downside support or hedge acceleration can matter. If price is between walls with weak gamma, the asset can move faster.
PM Use
When price is close to a wall and gamma stability is high, pinning or grind behavior is more plausible. When price is between walls with weak gamma and high protection demand, air-pocket risk rises.
Asset / portfolio read: For allocation, near-wall assets can be sized around defined levels. Weak-gamma assets between walls need wider risk bands and stronger confirmation before adding.
Volatility Surface Library
Surface, smile, term-structure, and gamma/wall diagnostics for full raw-chain symbols.
SPY - S&P 500
Options pressure 54/100, calm tape 62/100, protection demand 52/100, gamma stability 67/100.
What The Surface Says
The richest surface bucket is 1W / 1.25-1.30 moneyness. Back-end IV is at or above the front end, which is a calmer/carry-like term structure.
Asset / portfolio read: If front-end IV is rich, the asset has near-term event risk or urgent hedge demand priced. If back-end IV is richer, the market is paying for longer-run uncertainty or carry. The richest bucket shows where traders are paying most for movement.
What The Smile Says
Downside IV is richer than upside IV, showing protection demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If downside IV is richer, the asset has protection demand and downside risk premium. If upside IV is competitive, call-side chase or upside event risk is more important.
Largest call OI strike; often an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Largest put OI strike; often a hedge cluster, support zone, or downside risk line.
QQQ - Nasdaq 100
Options pressure 72/100, calm tape 54/100, protection demand 61/100, gamma stability 78/100.
What The Surface Says
The richest surface bucket is 1W / 1.25-1.30 moneyness. Front-end IV is above the back end, which points to nearer-term event premium or urgent hedge demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If front-end IV is rich, the asset has near-term event risk or urgent hedge demand priced. If back-end IV is richer, the market is paying for longer-run uncertainty or carry. The richest bucket shows where traders are paying most for movement.
What The Smile Says
Downside IV is richer than upside IV, showing protection demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If downside IV is richer, the asset has protection demand and downside risk premium. If upside IV is competitive, call-side chase or upside event risk is more important.
Largest call OI strike; often an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Largest put OI strike; often a hedge cluster, support zone, or downside risk line.
IWM - Russell 2000
Options pressure 56/100, calm tape 51/100, protection demand 74/100, gamma stability 65/100.
What The Surface Says
The richest surface bucket is 1W / 0.70-0.75 moneyness. Back-end IV is at or above the front end, which is a calmer/carry-like term structure.
Asset / portfolio read: If front-end IV is rich, the asset has near-term event risk or urgent hedge demand priced. If back-end IV is richer, the market is paying for longer-run uncertainty or carry. The richest bucket shows where traders are paying most for movement.
What The Smile Says
Downside IV is richer than upside IV, showing protection demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If downside IV is richer, the asset has protection demand and downside risk premium. If upside IV is competitive, call-side chase or upside event risk is more important.
Largest call OI strike; often an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Largest put OI strike; often a hedge cluster, support zone, or downside risk line.
TLT - Long Duration Treasury
Options pressure 14/100, calm tape 71/100, protection demand 18/100, gamma stability 88/100.
What The Surface Says
The richest surface bucket is 1W / 1.20-1.25 moneyness. Front-end IV is above the back end, which points to nearer-term event premium or urgent hedge demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If front-end IV is rich, the asset has near-term event risk or urgent hedge demand priced. If back-end IV is richer, the market is paying for longer-run uncertainty or carry. The richest bucket shows where traders are paying most for movement.
What The Smile Says
Upside IV is competitive with downside IV, showing more call-side chase or less downside hedge demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If downside IV is richer, the asset has protection demand and downside risk premium. If upside IV is competitive, call-side chase or upside event risk is more important.
Largest call OI strike; often an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Largest put OI strike; often a hedge cluster, support zone, or downside risk line.
HYG - High Yield Credit
Options pressure 37/100, calm tape 63/100, protection demand 27/100, gamma stability 74/100.
What The Surface Says
The richest surface bucket is 1W / 1.25-1.30 moneyness. Front-end IV is above the back end, which points to nearer-term event premium or urgent hedge demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If front-end IV is rich, the asset has near-term event risk or urgent hedge demand priced. If back-end IV is richer, the market is paying for longer-run uncertainty or carry. The richest bucket shows where traders are paying most for movement.
What The Smile Says
Upside IV is competitive with downside IV, showing more call-side chase or less downside hedge demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If downside IV is richer, the asset has protection demand and downside risk premium. If upside IV is competitive, call-side chase or upside event risk is more important.
Largest call OI strike; often an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Largest put OI strike; often a hedge cluster, support zone, or downside risk line.
SMH - Semiconductors
Options pressure 85/100, calm tape 44/100, protection demand 95/100, gamma stability 98/100.
What The Surface Says
The richest surface bucket is 1W / 0.70-0.75 moneyness. Front-end IV is above the back end, which points to nearer-term event premium or urgent hedge demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If front-end IV is rich, the asset has near-term event risk or urgent hedge demand priced. If back-end IV is richer, the market is paying for longer-run uncertainty or carry. The richest bucket shows where traders are paying most for movement.
What The Smile Says
Downside IV is richer than upside IV, showing protection demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If downside IV is richer, the asset has protection demand and downside risk premium. If upside IV is competitive, call-side chase or upside event risk is more important.
Largest call OI strike; often an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Largest put OI strike; often a hedge cluster, support zone, or downside risk line.
NVDA - Nvidia
Options pressure 45/100, calm tape 60/100, protection demand 40/100, gamma stability 20/100.
What The Surface Says
The richest surface bucket is 1W / 1.25-1.30 moneyness. Back-end IV is at or above the front end, which is a calmer/carry-like term structure.
Asset / portfolio read: If front-end IV is rich, the asset has near-term event risk or urgent hedge demand priced. If back-end IV is richer, the market is paying for longer-run uncertainty or carry. The richest bucket shows where traders are paying most for movement.
What The Smile Says
Downside IV is richer than upside IV, showing protection demand.
Asset / portfolio read: If downside IV is richer, the asset has protection demand and downside risk premium. If upside IV is competitive, call-side chase or upside event risk is more important.
Largest call OI strike; often an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Largest put OI strike; often a hedge cluster, support zone, or downside risk line.
Cross-Asset Raw Metric Heatmap
The 35-symbol matrix: options pressure, low calm, path risk, protection demand, IV rank, call activity, and chase risk.
How To Read The Heatmap
Red does not always mean sell and green does not always mean buy. Red means that raw metric is high for that asset: more put/call pressure, more path risk, more hedge demand, higher IV, lower gamma, or more call chase.
Asset / portfolio read: If Options Pressure is high and Forward Return Evidence says similar readings led to better 60D returns, the asset belongs on an add/watch list. If evidence says similar readings led to worse returns, treat the same red cell as risk control.
High / Low Direction
High Calm Tape means options are quiet; low Calm Tape means option pressure is rising. High Path Risk means the asset can move sharply. High Protection Demand means traders are paying for downside hedges.
Asset / portfolio read: Rising Options Pressure plus rising Path Risk means the asset may have a better future setup but rougher near-term path. Falling Options Pressure means the edge is fading or option pressure is no longer priced.
Options Pressure Breadth Composite
Breadth of high raw options pressure, path risk, protection demand, IV pressure, low calm, and call chase across the universe.
What Rising Breadth Means
A single market gauge can hide whether option-market pressure is broad or only concentrated in a few names.
Asset / portfolio read: If raw-options-pressure breadth rises, more assets have option-market pressure at the same time. That can support broader allocation interest only when PM Action, Forward Return Evidence, and price breadth confirm. If path-risk breadth rises faster than pressure breadth, the immediate message is risk control.
How To Use It
Use this as the options equivalent of pressure breadth: it tells whether high raw options pressure, path risk, protection demand, and IV pressure are spreading.
Asset / portfolio read: In the Strategist deck, rising pressure breadth should support the allocation gauge only when add/watch names backed by Forward Return Evidence are expanding. If risk-control names are expanding, it should subtract from allocation confidence.
Near-Term Path Risk Thermometer
Air-pocket/path-risk monitor built from protection demand, IV pressure, put impulse, and weak gamma support.
How To Read High Path Risk
High path risk means the asset can trade with a rougher near-term path because hedging, IV pressure, weak gamma, or put impulse are elevated.
Asset / portfolio read: For the asset, rising path risk means use tighter sizing, wider risk bands, or stronger price confirmation. It is a timing read, not a standalone buy/sell signal.
Important Exception
Commodity and currency symbols behaved less reliably as contrarian raw-pressure signals in the sample.
Asset / portfolio read: For GLD, SLV, USO, and UUP, rising path risk should be treated more cautiously and should not automatically lift allocation even when Options Pressure is high.
Convexity Map
Path-risk classification built from gamma stability and protection demand.
What This Shows
Each scatter classifies assets by gamma stability and protection demand. Upper-left is the air-pocket zone: hedge demand is high while stabilizing gamma is weak.
Asset / portfolio read: If an asset moves up and left, price can move faster and downside hedges matter more. If it moves down and right, price is more likely to pin, grind, or follow trend more calmly.
How To Read It
Up and left means rougher path risk. Down and right means more controlled price action. Bubble size reflects open-interest intensity.
Asset / portfolio read: For allocation, upper-left names need either smaller sizing or strong Forward Return Evidence before being treated as add/watch. Down-right names can support carry/grind exposure but usually have less contrarian edge.
Sector Options Regime Map
Sector and industry options posture for allocation decisions.
What The Sector Map Means
The scatter compares call activity with protection demand. The color shows the raw options pressure composite.
Asset / portfolio read: If PM Action and Forward Return Evidence are positive, rising sector options pressure can support adding exposure after price/breadth confirmation. If evidence is negative, rising pressure should lower sector risk appetite.
What Sector Path Risk Means
High sector path risk means protection demand and IV pressure are elevated while stabilizing gamma may be weaker.
Asset / portfolio read: If path risk rises faster than Forward Return Evidence improves, expect a rougher near-term path and use smaller sizing or tighter confirmation.
Leadership Call Activity Monitor
Call activity and high-IV chase risk across QQQ, SMH, NVDA, and Mag-7 leadership.
What This Shows
The map separates healthy call activity from expensive, crowded call chase by comparing call activity directly against IV rank.
Asset / portfolio read: If call activity rises while IV is not stretched, leadership can confirm trend. If call activity rises with high IV and high path risk, the asset is crowded and fresh longs need a higher bar.
PM Read
Healthy leadership can support allocation. Crowded call chase needs more discipline because option buyers are already paying up for upside convexity.
Asset / portfolio read: For allocation, high call chase argues for trimming chase risk or waiting for pullbacks unless broader price/breadth confirmation is strong.
Historical Validation Lab
Forward Return Evidence showing whether elevated raw options pressure has historically helped or hurt each asset.
What This Tests
Each symbol is sorted into Low, Neutral, Building, and High Options Pressure buckets. The table then asks what happened to that asset's price over the next 20, 60, and 120 trading days.
Asset / portfolio read: If the current bucket had the best forward return, the asset's current raw options pressure has historically been favorable. If High Options Pressure beat Low Options Pressure, rising pressure has historically been add/watch. If Low Options Pressure beat High Options Pressure, rising pressure has historically been a warning.
Read The Verdict First
Each symbol card says whether the current pressure bucket is best, high pressure is supported as add/watch, high pressure is a risk-control warning, calm tape worked better, or evidence is mixed.
Asset / portfolio read: For allocation: add/watch means rising raw options pressure can support exposure after price confirmation; risk-control warning means rising pressure should not raise exposure; mixed means defer to the broader Strategist deck.
Options Pressure Versus Direction
Options Pressure is not a one-day price forecast. It measures whether elevated put/call, IV, gamma, hedge-demand, and calm-tape inputs have historically preceded better or worse forward returns for that asset.
Asset / portfolio read: If Options Pressure rises and Forward Return Evidence says similar high readings led to better returns, the asset may be closer to a contrarian entry window. If evidence says similar high readings led to worse returns, the asset may face more downside/path risk.
Index / Market
SPY S&P 500
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D4.9%
Best 60D Return11.1%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 107 | 0.6% | 56.1% | 2.5% | 62.6% | 6.3% | 85.0% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 163 | 1.7% | 73.7% | 3.7% | 67.3% | 7.6% | 70.8% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 142 | 1.7% | 69.8% | 4.9% | 71.1% | 8.9% | 57.7% |
| High Options Pressure | 100 | 4.1% | 66.7% | 11.1% | 87.6% | 17.8% | 46.7% |
QQQ Nasdaq 100
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D16.6%
Best 60D Return16.6%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 105 | 1.4% | 68.6% | 3.1% | 58.1% | 8.0% | 91.4% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 160 | 1.4% | 65.6% | 3.6% | 64.4% | 8.2% | 78.8% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 156 | 1.5% | 61.0% | 8.4% | 75.5% | 10.9% | 55.3% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 91 | 5.1% | 67.6% | 16.6% | 60.2% | 21.0% | 42.6% |
IWM Russell 2000
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D6.2%
Best 60D Return12.7%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 119 | 1.5% | 68.1% | 4.2% | 69.7% | 6.3% | 65.5% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 139 | 1.8% | 63.1% | 3.8% | 60.4% | 11.1% | 56.4% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 137 | 1.8% | 61.1% | 6.2% | 66.7% | 12.2% | 58.3% |
| High Options Pressure | 117 | 4.4% | 69.2% | 12.7% | 77.5% | 20.6% | 47.5% |
DIA Dow Jones
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D3.7%
Best 60D Return8.1%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 93 | 1.3% | 58.6% | 4.6% | 62.6% | 8.0% | 69.7% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 159 | 1.4% | 66.7% | 3.7% | 60.1% | 5.4% | 56.0% |
| Building Options Pressure | 160 | 2.1% | 73.8% | 4.2% | 69.5% | 6.1% | 65.2% | |
| High Options Pressure | 100 | 3.9% | 85.1% | 8.1% | 85.1% | 10.2% | 71.3% |
RSP Equal-Weight S&P 500
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D3.6%
Best 60D Return5.9%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 95 | 1.4% | 63.5% | 2.0% | 64.6% | 6.6% | 83.3% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 174 | 1.8% | 70.9% | 2.5% | 69.2% | 7.3% | 74.2% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 138 | 2.1% | 66.7% | 3.6% | 61.9% | 5.9% | 51.0% |
| High Options Pressure | 105 | 2.9% | 70.1% | 5.9% | 78.5% | 7.9% | 51.4% |
VTI Total Market
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D4.3%
Best 60D Return10.7%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 91 | 1.1% | 67.7% | 3.5% | 81.7% | 8.3% | 81.7% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 176 | 1.5% | 63.9% | 4.3% | 63.9% | 8.0% | 62.3% |
| Building Options Pressure | 148 | 1.8% | 70.2% | 4.5% | 67.5% | 6.7% | 57.6% | |
| High Options Pressure | 97 | 3.3% | 71.1% | 10.7% | 82.5% | 17.4% | 59.8% |
Sector / Industry
XLK Technology
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D12.8%
Best 60D Return12.8%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 84 | 1.0% | 57.1% | 2.1% | 56.0% | 7.6% | 69.0% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 179 | 1.0% | 56.4% | 4.3% | 60.3% | 7.4% | 66.5% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 166 | 2.0% | 64.5% | 9.2% | 70.9% | 11.8% | 62.8% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 83 | 3.0% | 59.8% | 12.8% | 50.5% | 20.6% | 50.5% |
XLY Consumer Discretionary
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D5.3%
Best 60D Return6.9%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 95 | 1.7% | 61.9% | 2.3% | 47.6% | 0.4% | 41.9% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 163 | 0.6% | 54.8% | 3.3% | 59.5% | 0.5% | 42.3% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 155 | 1.1% | 61.0% | 5.3% | 69.8% | 3.8% | 47.8% |
| High Options Pressure | 99 | 1.4% | 61.0% | 6.9% | 76.0% | 15.9% | 57.0% |
XLC Communication Services
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D3.9%
Best 60D Return8.0%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 78 | 0.4% | 50.0% | 0.5% | 47.6% | 1.3% | 42.7% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 170 | 1.1% | 56.1% | 3.9% | 58.3% | 7.2% | 55.6% |
| Building Options Pressure | 177 | 1.3% | 58.2% | 3.2% | 67.0% | 8.6% | 74.7% | |
| High Options Pressure | 86 | 4.0% | 70.1% | 8.0% | 78.2% | 14.1% | 86.2% |
XLF Financials
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D2.1%
Best 60D Return7.9%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 97 | 0.3% | 52.5% | -0.2% | 36.6% | 2.7% | 51.5% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 165 | 0.9% | 54.3% | 2.1% | 56.0% | 3.6% | 54.9% |
| Building Options Pressure | 151 | 1.3% | 59.6% | 2.7% | 68.6% | 5.1% | 66.7% | |
| High Options Pressure | 99 | 4.2% | 76.0% | 7.9% | 98.0% | 8.2% | 59.0% |
XLI Industrials
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D4.8%
Best 60D Return8.6%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 96 | 1.5% | 65.6% | 4.0% | 76.0% | 10.3% | 92.7% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 192 | 1.2% | 67.7% | 3.7% | 75.5% | 9.6% | 84.4% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 123 | 1.4% | 60.2% | 4.8% | 63.2% | 10.0% | 57.1% |
| High Options Pressure | 100 | 3.7% | 69.1% | 8.6% | 61.8% | 15.7% | 37.3% |
XLE Energy
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D3.1%
Best 60D Return4.6%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 80 | -0.3% | 46.3% | -0.4% | 45.1% | -2.1% | 42.7% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 187 | 1.0% | 56.6% | 3.4% | 56.6% | 4.7% | 53.6% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 154 | 2.5% | 60.1% | 3.1% | 62.6% | 6.8% | 55.8% |
| High Options Pressure | 91 | 1.0% | 53.8% | 4.6% | 59.3% | 7.9% | 71.4% |
XLB Materials
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D3.1%
Best 60D Return3.1%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 87 | 0.7% | 56.3% | -0.4% | 47.1% | 1.0% | 55.2% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 175 | 0.2% | 51.1% | 2.6% | 51.7% | 3.1% | 56.7% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 157 | 1.6% | 54.5% | 2.8% | 56.9% | 6.7% | 56.3% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 93 | 1.8% | 57.1% | 3.1% | 51.0% | 5.3% | 44.9% |
XLU Utilities
High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DLow Options Pressure
Current 60D3.9%
Best 60D Return5.6%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to worse returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 68 | 1.7% | 69.4% | 5.6% | 77.8% | 7.1% | 76.4% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 195 | 1.4% | 61.2% | 4.6% | 64.1% | 8.0% | 66.5% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 173 | 1.1% | 55.1% | 3.9% | 64.6% | 6.6% | 79.2% |
| High Options Pressure | 75 | 0.4% | 54.7% | 0.1% | 49.3% | 6.2% | 62.7% |
XLRE Real Estate
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentLow Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D-0.0%
Best 60D Return2.4%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | Current | 64 | 0.4% | 47.4% | -0.0% | 30.3% | 0.4% | 26.3% |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 193 | 0.3% | 54.0% | 0.8% | 53.5% | 1.3% | 46.5% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 163 | 0.9% | 63.9% | 2.3% | 66.3% | 2.6% | 61.4% | |
| High Options Pressure | 92 | 2.4% | 71.7% | 2.4% | 62.0% | 2.7% | 60.9% |
XLV Health Care
High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DLow Options Pressure
Current 60D1.5%
Best 60D Return4.7%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to worse returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 95 | 2.0% | 68.8% | 4.7% | 59.4% | -0.6% | 37.5% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 185 | 0.7% | 54.7% | -3.9% | 35.4% | -3.0% | 27.6% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 130 | -0.0% | 46.0% | 1.5% | 49.6% | -2.8% | 29.5% |
| High Options Pressure | 102 | 0.1% | 50.5% | 2.1% | 63.8% | 5.7% | 49.5% |
XLP Consumer Staples
High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DLow Options Pressure
Current 60D0.6%
Best 60D Return1.3%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to worse returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 98 | 0.1% | 51.0% | 1.3% | 59.2% | 4.2% | 71.4% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 165 | 0.6% | 56.6% | 0.8% | 54.8% | 2.9% | 71.7% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 165 | 0.8% | 53.6% | 0.6% | 43.6% | 1.7% | 40.8% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 84 | 0.9% | 58.4% | 0.6% | 58.4% | 0.7% | 36.0% |
SMH Semiconductors
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D33.3%
Best 60D Return33.3%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 110 | 3.4% | 67.3% | 6.5% | 61.8% | 22.2% | 79.1% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 164 | 1.4% | 61.6% | 8.0% | 70.7% | 20.0% | 69.5% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 150 | 2.6% | 63.8% | 15.3% | 80.3% | 29.1% | 63.2% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 88 | 6.6% | 62.3% | 33.3% | 48.1% | 44.7% | 27.4% |
XHB Homebuilders
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D-1.1%
Best 60D Return6.0%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 86 | 2.1% | 52.3% | -2.3% | 38.4% | 1.0% | 47.7% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 176 | -0.9% | 44.6% | -1.1% | 41.3% | 0.3% | 38.6% |
| Building Options Pressure | 167 | 0.4% | 50.0% | -2.3% | 37.9% | -3.9% | 28.2% | |
| High Options Pressure | 83 | 3.9% | 69.3% | 6.0% | 54.5% | 0.5% | 39.8% |
KRE Regional Banks
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D2.6%
Best 60D Return8.9%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 84 | 4.1% | 66.3% | 2.1% | 56.2% | 10.9% | 66.3% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 165 | -0.0% | 46.3% | 2.6% | 47.5% | 7.3% | 55.9% |
| Building Options Pressure | 166 | 3.0% | 62.3% | 5.6% | 65.9% | 6.8% | 55.7% | |
| High Options Pressure | 97 | 3.8% | 64.6% | 8.9% | 80.8% | 12.1% | 74.7% |
Rates / Credit
TLT Long Duration Treasury
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentLow Options Pressure
Best 60DBuilding Options Pressure
Current 60D-1.6%
Best 60D Return0.7%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | Current | 102 | -1.0% | 24.6% | -1.6% | 10.2% | -2.2% | 5.9% |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 143 | 0.6% | 57.8% | -0.2% | 40.8% | -1.2% | 29.3% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 143 | 0.3% | 51.7% | 0.7% | 50.3% | -0.6% | 42.0% | |
| High Options Pressure | 123 | 0.5% | 53.7% | 0.6% | 55.3% | 1.6% | 56.1% |
IEF Intermediate Treasury
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DNeutral Options Pressure
Current 60D1.1%
Best 60D Return1.1%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 83 | -0.1% | 43.8% | 0.0% | 42.7% | 0.1% | 23.6% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 169 | 0.4% | 63.5% | 1.1% | 63.5% | 1.7% | 52.2% |
| Building Options Pressure | 166 | 0.5% | 62.0% | 1.0% | 60.8% | 2.2% | 59.6% | |
| High Options Pressure | 94 | 0.4% | 58.5% | 0.5% | 57.4% | 2.7% | 75.5% |
HYG High Yield Credit
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D1.2%
Best 60D Return2.6%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 81 | 0.4% | 62.4% | 1.0% | 52.7% | 2.1% | 52.7% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 166 | 0.5% | 66.5% | 1.2% | 79.2% | 2.7% | 67.6% |
| Building Options Pressure | 168 | 0.8% | 78.1% | 1.9% | 90.5% | 3.7% | 88.8% | |
| High Options Pressure | 96 | 1.3% | 86.5% | 2.6% | 96.9% | 4.4% | 89.6% |
LQD Investment Grade Credit
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D0.3%
Best 60D Return2.3%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 98 | 0.1% | 50.0% | -0.4% | 25.0% | 0.2% | 25.9% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 141 | 0.3% | 54.7% | 0.3% | 50.7% | 0.4% | 40.5% |
| Building Options Pressure | 169 | 0.7% | 71.5% | 1.1% | 70.3% | 2.4% | 64.0% | |
| High Options Pressure | 104 | 0.9% | 78.8% | 2.3% | 79.8% | 4.2% | 89.4% |
Commodity / Currency
GLD Gold
High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DLow Options Pressure
Current 60D4.4%
Best 60D Return14.4%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to worse returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 94 | 4.3% | 85.1% | 14.4% | 97.9% | 23.7% | 100.0% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 166 | 3.2% | 83.1% | 12.6% | 95.8% | 17.8% | 95.2% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 187 | 1.6% | 54.4% | 4.4% | 59.6% | 17.0% | 58.0% |
| High Options Pressure | 65 | -1.1% | 34.2% | -3.8% | 20.3% | 18.5% | 24.1% |
SLV Silver
High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DLow Options Pressure
Current 60D11.8%
Best 60D Return15.2%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to worse returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 149 | 4.5% | 79.9% | 15.2% | 95.3% | 48.8% | 99.3% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 147 | 2.4% | 66.0% | 6.6% | 85.0% | 11.1% | 89.1% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 91 | 2.8% | 57.4% | 11.8% | 52.1% | 13.6% | 63.8% |
| High Options Pressure | 125 | -1.6% | 40.1% | -10.5% | 17.6% | -8.8% | 14.1% |
USO Oil
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D3.0%
Best 60D Return6.2%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 102 | -2.0% | 35.3% | -3.9% | 33.3% | -1.1% | 42.2% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 161 | -0.7% | 42.3% | 1.1% | 53.4% | 1.9% | 53.4% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 145 | 0.8% | 50.3% | 3.0% | 49.7% | 4.3% | 51.6% |
| High Options Pressure | 104 | 3.7% | 60.4% | 6.2% | 44.3% | 5.6% | 17.0% |
UUP Dollar
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentLow Options Pressure
Best 60DLow Options Pressure
Current 60D2.0%
Best 60D Return2.0%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to worse returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | Current | 83 | 1.1% | 55.2% | 2.0% | 44.8% | 1.2% | 20.8% |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 153 | -0.3% | 40.6% | 0.9% | 57.4% | 2.0% | 61.9% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 184 | 0.1% | 51.1% | 0.8% | 59.6% | 2.9% | 67.6% | |
| High Options Pressure | 92 | 0.5% | 57.0% | 1.5% | 65.6% | 0.5% | 49.5% |
Single-Name Leadership
AAPL Apple
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DNeutral Options Pressure
Current 60D4.7%
Best 60D Return5.3%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 106 | 2.4% | 66.0% | 4.5% | 59.4% | 8.0% | 64.2% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 179 | 2.2% | 64.8% | 5.3% | 62.6% | 7.1% | 51.4% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 142 | 1.6% | 57.5% | 5.2% | 63.0% | 5.7% | 46.6% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 84 | 2.4% | 51.0% | 4.7% | 50.0% | 19.9% | 52.0% |
MSFT Microsoft
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D3.0%
Best 60D Return3.0%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 97 | -0.3% | 49.5% | -3.4% | 32.0% | -3.0% | 45.4% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 174 | -0.8% | 43.7% | -1.2% | 42.5% | -3.9% | 34.5% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 155 | -1.6% | 33.5% | 1.3% | 49.1% | -2.2% | 30.5% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 86 | 1.5% | 51.1% | 3.0% | 55.3% | 18.9% | 26.6% |
NVDA Nvidia
Calmer tape has historically had less forward-return edge for this symbol
CurrentNeutral Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D5.6%
Best 60D Return16.6%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 63 | 4.7% | 64.6% | 5.9% | 58.5% | 12.3% | 63.1% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | Current | 206 | 2.6% | 58.9% | 5.6% | 61.6% | 8.2% | 61.2% |
| Building Options Pressure | 169 | -0.7% | 44.3% | 4.6% | 51.7% | 11.3% | 56.9% | |
| High Options Pressure | 74 | 1.8% | 60.8% | 16.6% | 68.9% | 13.4% | 85.1% |
AMZN Amazon
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D17.0%
Best 60D Return17.0%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 97 | 2.4% | 55.7% | 1.4% | 47.4% | 0.7% | 47.4% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 174 | 1.4% | 60.9% | 2.4% | 51.7% | 6.3% | 62.1% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 167 | 0.7% | 50.3% | 5.7% | 57.1% | 7.1% | 47.4% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 73 | 5.2% | 60.0% | 17.0% | 68.2% | 20.0% | 55.3% |
META Meta
High raw options pressure has historically led to better 60D forward returns for this symbol
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D1.6%
Best 60D Return10.2%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 83 | 0.9% | 59.0% | 1.1% | 53.0% | -6.5% | 31.3% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 184 | -0.8% | 46.5% | 2.2% | 50.8% | -0.4% | 41.6% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 164 | -0.5% | 44.3% | 1.6% | 47.1% | 5.9% | 43.1% |
| High Options Pressure | 81 | 5.6% | 63.3% | 10.2% | 60.0% | 25.6% | 54.4% |
GOOGL Alphabet
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentBuilding Options Pressure
Best 60DBuilding Options Pressure
Current 60D17.1%
Best 60D Return17.1%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 101 | 3.9% | 68.3% | 6.0% | 63.4% | 9.6% | 73.3% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 158 | 2.9% | 60.1% | 12.1% | 61.4% | 17.0% | 69.0% | |
| Building Options Pressure | Current | 160 | 2.6% | 55.4% | 17.1% | 64.3% | 20.6% | 53.0% |
| High Options Pressure | 93 | 1.5% | 47.6% | 15.2% | 62.9% | 23.8% | 44.8% |
TSLA Tesla
Current setup bucket has historically had the best 60D forward return
CurrentHigh Options Pressure
Best 60DHigh Options Pressure
Current 60D17.2%
Best 60D Return17.2%
ReadHigh Options Pressure led to better returns
| Regime | Current | Sample | Median Fwd 20D | % Positive 20D | Median Fwd 60D | % Positive 60D | Median Fwd 120D | % Positive 120D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Low Options Pressure | 100 | 2.2% | 51.0% | 6.8% | 48.0% | 18.5% | 37.3% | |
| Neutral Options Pressure | 177 | 1.8% | 54.1% | 8.6% | 56.3% | 5.4% | 41.0% | |
| Building Options Pressure | 141 | 0.4% | 48.0% | 3.8% | 55.9% | 11.9% | 50.7% | |
| High Options Pressure | Current | 94 | 1.1% | 54.7% | 17.2% | 71.6% | 39.4% | 68.4% |
Methodology
Calculation rules, data-source decisions, and known limits.
Data Source
Alpha Vantage historical options chains. The deck uses end-of-day chains, not intraday OPRA flow.
Standardized IV
30D ATM IV uses near-50-delta calls and puts. The calculation interpolates total variance across expiries bracketing 30 calendar days; 25-delta put and call IV provide the standardized skew inputs. Sparse historical dates without usable listed expiries fall back to the legacy near-spot chain proxy, while the latest date has full standardized coverage.
Raw Versus Summary Storage
Full contract rows are retained for SPY, QQQ, IWM, TLT, HYG, SMH, and NVDA. The broader 35-symbol universe stores compact daily summaries.
IV Surface
Surface charts bucket implied volatility by expiration tenor and strike/spot moneyness. This avoids overfitting interpolation while keeping the shape readable.
Gamma Exposure Proxy
Gamma exposure is inferred from listed open interest, option gamma, strike, and a 100-share contract multiplier. It is not a true dealer book.
Protection Demand
Built from put/call volume, put/call open interest, put volume/open-interest impulse, and IV percentile. High means traders are paying for downside protection.
Options Pressure Composite
Combines path risk, IV pressure, urgent hedging, protection demand, and low calm. Higher means raw option-market pressure is present; PM Action and Forward Return Evidence decide whether that has historically led to better or worse future returns.
Calm Options Tape
Higher means calmer options conditions. This is not automatically bullish; calm can also mean less contrarian edge.
Near-Term Path Risk
Combines protection demand, IV pressure, weak gamma stability, and put-flow impulse. High means the asset's path can be rougher now, even if Forward Return Evidence says the future setup is improving.
Convexity Regime
Classifies assets by gamma stability and protection demand into pinned grind, hedged stability, trend-prone calm, or air-pocket risk.
Leadership Call Activity
Separates broad healthy upside demand from narrow high-IV call chase in QQQ, SMH, NVDA, and major single-name leaders.
Macro-Options Transmission
Looks for option-market pressure in HYG, LQD, TLT, IEF, KRE, and XLF to see whether macro risk is entering traded risk-transfer markets.
Known Limits
No customer/market-maker split, no trade aggressor, and no live intraday flow. Open interest may be stale and low-liquidity strikes can distort far-wing reads.
Glossary
Plain-English guide for options readers who want the signal without jargon fog.
Implied Volatility
The option market's embedded forecast of future movement. Higher IV means options are more expensive.
Realized Volatility
What the underlying asset actually moved over a trailing window.
Skew
The difference between downside put IV and upside call/ATM IV. Rising put skew usually means protection demand.
Gamma
How quickly option delta changes as price moves. More gamma near spot can create pinning or stability.
Open Interest
Outstanding option contracts. It is slower-moving than volume and helps locate walls or crowded strikes.
Volume / OI
Volume divided by open interest. High values can indicate fresh activity rather than stale positioning.
Call Wall
The strike with the largest call open interest. It can act as an upside magnet or resistance zone.
Put Wall
The strike with the largest put open interest. It can act as a downside hedge cluster or support/risk level.
Term Structure
IV across expiration dates. Front-end inversion often points to near-term event demand or urgent hedge demand.
Vol Surface
IV across both strike and expiration. It shows where traders are paying for convexity.