AIQ - AI Theme | Ticker Intelligence

PM Read

Overweight / add on pullbacks

price/trend score 67.6; DeMark rank 71.2; holdings look-through 60.7; macro setup 54.5

Main Risk

No major current conflict across available inputs.

How To Use

Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.

Analyst Conclusion

This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.

Analyst Verdict	Setup Quality	Best Support	Main Friction	Fresh Tape	Macro Use	Upgrade Trigger	Downgrade Trigger
Overweight / add on pullbacks	High-quality confirmation	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, CFTC, Rates / Credit	DeMark	Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rank	Context only	VAMS turns Buy or signal strength improves; options tape moves into a validated supportive setup	VAMS flips Sell or weakens materially; breadth rolls over or damage breadth rises; rates/credit risk budget tightens further

One-Minute PM Summary

The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.

Decision	Confidence	Agreement	Best Evidence	Main Conflict	What Changed Since Last Week
Overweight / add on pullbacks	High	5 constructive / 1 conflict	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, CFTC	DeMark	Price: Improved (2.9%); Relative strength vs SPY: Improved (1.6%); DeMark technical rank: Improved (+24.7 pts)

PM Action Framework

This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.

Lens	Current Read	Evidence	PM Use
Cross-deck agreement	78.6 / 100 \| High confidence	5 constructive, 1 neutral, 1 conflict across 7 layers.	Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it.
Position construction	Full position candidate	price/trend score 67.6; DeMark rank 71.2; holdings look-through 60.7; macro setup 54.5	Translates the signal stack into sizing language.
What changed since last week	Price improved (2.9%); Relative strength vs SPY improved (1.6%); DeMark technical rank improved (+24.7 pts); Macro setup score improved (+8.9 pts)	Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.	Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels.
Confirmation	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, CFTC, Rates / Credit	VAMS n/a; technical state Confirmed leadership.	Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart.
Invalidation	DeMark	No major current conflict across available inputs.	If these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair.

Ticker Playbook

Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.

Action	Rule	Current Status	Evidence To Watch
Add / increase	Agreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto.	Allowed now	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, CFTC, Rates / Credit
Hold / monitor	Agreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup.	Secondary	Trend state: Confirmed leadership; VAMS: n/a.
Trim / reduce	Multiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning.	Watch	DeMark
Avoid / wait	Agreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation.	Not primary	No major current conflict across available inputs.
Recheck next week	Use the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels.	Improving/stable	Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rank

What Changed Since Last Week

Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.

Signal	Now	5D Ago	Change	Read
Price	65.97	64.13	2.9%	Improved
Relative strength vs SPY	0.086	0.084	1.6%	Improved
DeMark technical rank	71.2	46.5	+24.7 pts	Improved
Macro setup score	54.5	45.7	+8.9 pts	Improved

Price Trend And Relative Strength

Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.

Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI

Up candleDown candle50DMA AIQ/SPY ratio200DMA AIQ/SPY ratio14D RSI

Deck Cards

Breadth Proxy

No constituent file; using price-only trend and drawdown proxies.

Proxy score67.6

Price vs 50DMA3.1%

Price vs 200DMA10.8%

1Y drawdown-5.9%

ETF Holdings

Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.

Holdings66

Top 5 / 10 weight17.5% / 32.2%

Confirmation60.7

ETF Technicals

Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.

StateConfirmed leadership

Return Z0.11

MA Dev Z0.19

DeMark 9/13

Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.

ActionHold / validate

SignalUpper 13

Rank71.2

CFTC Positioning

Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.

ProxyNasdaq 100

ReadBalanced

3Y pctile48.7

Rates / Credit

Macro risk-budget governor.

2s10s0.36

HY OAS2.80

MOVE96.00

Macro

Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.

Risk appetite59.7

Macro quintile4

Allocation

Model sleeve and current expression.

SleeveGrowth / Tech Leadership

Weight1.4%

WhySelected by global score: rank 7 of max 20; sleeve rank 4. The Growth / Tech Leadership sleeve has 7 selected holding(s), so this name receives 14.29% of that sleeve's model allocation.

RationaleNeutral: tech leadership needs VAMS support and options validation discipline; score 58.0 keeps the sleeve selective unless financial conditions and forward-setup validation keep confirming.

ETF Look-Through: Holdings And Concentration

Holdings are the latest Alpha Vantage point-in-time ETF_PROFILE snapshot. Contribution estimates use current weights multiplied by recent holding returns; they are not historical attribution.

Holdings Snapshot

Holdings returned66

Top 3 / 5 / 1011.0% / 17.5% / 32.2%

AUM$10.2B

Expense / turnover0.68% / 16.0%

Snapshot refreshed2026-09-18T19:00:31

Look-Through Verdict

Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 60% above 50DMA, 70% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 17.5%.

Confirmation score60.7 / 100

Top 10 above 50DMA60%

Top 10 positive 1M / 3M70% / 60%

Top 10 1M / 3M contribution0.56% / 4.94%

Top 10 Holdings Table

60D Return Z is each holding's 60-day return measured against that stock's own recent return history.

Holding	Name	Weight	1W	1M	3M	Above 50DMA	60D Return Z	1M Contribution	3M Contribution
PLTR	PLTR	4.04%	6.8%	6.9%	68.0%	Yes	2.50	0.28%	2.75%
MSFT	MICROSOFT CORP	3.64%	4.5%	4.0%	38.4%	Yes	2.60	0.15%	1.40%
SPCX	SPCX	3.33%	-2.6%	6.5%	-3.0%	Yes	n/a	0.22%	-0.10%
ORCL	ORACLE CORP	3.26%	-7.1%	-7.9%	-7.7%	No	0.26	-0.26%	-0.25%
NFLX	NETFLIX INC	3.25%	-0.9%	-12.7%	-3.6%	No	0.59	-0.41%	-0.12%
TSLA	TESLA INC	3.09%	2.2%	7.6%	-2.0%	Yes	-0.81	0.23%	-0.06%
AMZN	AMAZON.COM INC	3.02%	-1.6%	-4.1%	7.3%	No	-0.00	-0.12%	0.22%
GOOGL	ALPHABET INC CLASS A	2.92%	-1.6%	0.6%	1.9%	No	-1.10	0.02%	0.06%
NVDA	NVIDIA CORP	2.89%	1.3%	7.3%	16.9%	Yes	1.12	0.21%	0.49%
AAPL	APPLE INC	2.80%	1.5%	8.8%	20.2%	Yes	0.62	0.25%	0.57%

Sector Exposure

Sector	Weight
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY	25.9%
COMMUNICATION SERVICES	2.9%
HEALTHCARE	0.3%
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY	0.0%
CONSUMER STAPLES	0.0%
INDUSTRIALS	0.0%
MATERIALS	0.0%
UTILITIES	0.0%

Top Holding Price Checks

Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price

Peer / Group Rank

Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.

Ticker	Current	Name	1M	3M	50DMA Dist	1Y DD	Composite Rank	Score
BUG		Cybersecurity	8.1%	18.3%	5.2%	-5.1%	#1	84.1
XLK		Technology	4.9%	11.7%	4.9%	-0.7%	#2	81.8
CLOU		Cloud	2.2%	23.1%	1.3%	-2.6%	#3	70.5
AIQ	Current	AI Theme	2.6%	13.8%	3.1%	-5.9%	#4	63.6
IGV		Software	1.4%	20.5%	1.4%	-3.9%	#5	61.4
SMH		Semiconductors	7.0%	8.1%	6.4%	-9.3%	#6	61.4
QTUM		Quantum/AI	4.3%	10.5%	2.7%	-8.5%	#7	54.5
NXTG		5G / Digital Infra	1.6%	8.4%	2.3%	-5.8%	#8	47.7
PNQI		Internet	-1.6%	10.6%	-0.9%	-3.9%	#9	38.6
ROBO		Robotics	0.6%	4.2%	0.1%	-10.3%	#10	20.5
GRID		Smart Grid	0.5%	1.4%	-0.6%	-9.6%	#11	15.9

Signal Stack

Layer	Read	Score	Evidence
ETF Technicals	Confirmed leadership	67.6	1M 2.6%, 3M 13.8%, return z 0.11, MA dev z 0.19.
Breadth	Price proxy only	67.6	No constituent breadth file; using price trend, drawdown, and MA distance as proxy.
ETF Holdings	Top-holding confirmation	60.7	Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 60% above 50DMA, 70% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 17.5%.
DeMark 9/13	Hold / validate	71.2	Upper 13 21D: avg 2.2%, hit 14%, N 21
CFTC	Balanced	97.4	Nasdaq 100: positioning pctile 48.7, inst/HF %OI 14.5, 13W change 29,691.
Rates / Credit	Risk-budget governor	66.9	2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87.
Macro	n/a	54.5	Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7.

What The Evidence Means

Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.

Layer	State	What It Means	PM Use	Evidence
ETF Technicals	Constructive	Price trend and relative performance are investable.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	Confirmed leadership; 1M 2.6%, 3M 13.8%.
Breadth	Constructive	Participation under the ETF is broad enough to support sizing.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.
ETF Holdings	Constructive	The ETF's largest current holdings are confirming the ETF-level tape.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 60% above 50DMA, 70% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 17.5%.
DeMark	Conflict	Exhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Upper 13 21D: avg 2.2%, hit 14%, N 21
CFTC	Constructive	Positioning is not obviously crowded and sponsorship is balanced.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	Nasdaq 100: percentile 48.7, read Balanced.
Rates / Credit	Constructive	Macro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87.
Macro	Neutral	Macro is a context layer, not a primary driver here.	Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision.	Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7.

Signal Agreement Detail

Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.

Layer	State	Score	Evidence	PM Use
ETF Technicals	Constructive	67.6	Confirmed leadership; 1M 2.6%, 3M 13.8%.	Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair.
Breadth	Constructive	67.6	No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.	Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up.
ETF Holdings	Constructive	60.7	Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 60% above 50DMA, 70% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 17.5%.	Checks whether the ETF's largest current holdings are confirming or masking the ETF-level signal.
DeMark	Conflict	71.2	Upper 13 21D: avg 2.2%, hit 14%, N 21	Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk.
CFTC	Constructive	97.4	Nasdaq 100: percentile 48.7, read Balanced.	Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy.
Rates / Credit	Constructive	66.9	HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87.	Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure.
Macro	Neutral	54.5	Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7.	Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime.

Plain-English Signal Guide

This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.

Deck	Plain English	Current Read	How To Use
ETF Technicals	Is price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing?	Confirmed leadership	Use z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups.
Breadth	Is the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders?	No constituent breadth file	Higher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing.
ETF Holdings	Are the ETF's largest current holdings confirming or masking the ETF-level signal?	Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 60% above 50DMA, 70% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 17.5%.	Use current-weight contribution and concentration as a look-through check, not as historical attribution.
DeMark	Is the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup?	Hold / validate	Helpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts.
CFTC / Macro	Are positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade?	Balanced / macro quintile 4	Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget.

Evidence Quality

Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.

Evidence Layer	Quality	Sample / Coverage	How To Trust It
Breadth	Thin	0	Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight.
VAMS	Thin	0	Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison.
Options	Thin	0	Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger.
DeMark	Thin	21	Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals.
CFTC	High	1,059	Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal.
Macro Quintile	High	2,929	Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes.
Rates / Credit	High	1,000	Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series.

VAMS Momentum And Backtest

This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.

No VAMS history exists for this ticker.

Breadth Dashboard

Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.

No constituent-level breadth file exists for this ticker. The report uses price, trend, drawdown, and relative-strength context instead of actual constituent participation charts.

ETF Return Z-Scores

Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.

30D Return Z

Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.

30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

60D Return Z

Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.

60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

90D Return Z

Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.

90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

120D Return Z

Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.

120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores

These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.

20DMA Dev Z

Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.

20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

50DMA Dev Z

Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.

50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

100DMA Dev Z

Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.

100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

200DMA Dev Z

Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.

200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Options Current Setup

No current Options Intelligence row available.

Options Validation Snapshot

Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.

No validation rows available.

No Options Intelligence history exists for this ticker.

DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context

This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.

Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13

DeMark 9/13 Read

Metric	Value
Daily	Lower setup 1/9
Weekly	Upper countdown 3/13
Ratio	Lower setup 1/9
PM action	Hold / validate
Validation	Poor history

CFTC Positioning

Metric	Value
Proxy	Nasdaq 100
Mapping	Technology/growth proxy
Read	Balanced
Inst/HF %OI	14.5
3Y Percentile	48.7
13W Change	29,691

DeMark Validation Snapshot

Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.

Lens	Signal	Age	Alignment	Read	Evidence	5D	10D	21D	63D
Current daily 9/13 signal	Upper 13	3 calendar days ago	Improving / Early Turn	Poor history	Upper 13 21D: avg 2.2%, hit 14%, N 21	0.4% / 33% / N 21	1.5% / 24% / N 21	2.2% / 14% / N 21	3.9% / 29% / N 21
Daily / weekly / relative alignment	Upper 13	3 calendar days ago	Daily Only	Low sample	Daily + Ratio 21D: median 2.9%, avg -4.5%, hit 25%, N 4	med -0.8% / hit 50% / N 4	med -1.0% / hit 50% / N 4	med 2.9% / hit 25% / N 4	med -2.7% / hit 50% / N 4

QQQ price proxyInst/HF %OI

Rates / Credit

Metric	Latest	1M Chg	3Y Pctile
2Y Treasury	4.87	0.70	91.0
10Y Treasury	5.18	0.54	100.0
2s10s	0.36	-0.11	53.4
HY OAS	2.80	0.13	26.0
IG OAS	0.79	-0.01	22.4
MOVE	96.00	26.14	57.1
VIX	14.87	0.36	27.1

Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity

Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.

USD

Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.

AIQ priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	1.9%	-0.1%	86%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	0.26	-0.45	82%	Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	0.60	-3.62	79%	Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Oil

Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.

AIQ priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	4.5%	9.1%	70%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.62	-0.69	7%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-0.18	-0.34	20%	Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

10Y Yield

Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.

AIQ price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.54 pts	0.14 pts	98%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.54	-0.46	26%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-15.57	-27.15	22%	Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

HY Spreads

Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.

AIQ priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.13 pts	-0.02 pts	80%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.57	-0.63	64%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-25.75	-53.51	15%	High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

MOVE

Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.

AIQ priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	26.1 pts	3.4 pts	95%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.42	-0.41	54%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-0.16	-0.36	50%	Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

VIX

Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.

AIQ priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.4 pts	-0.8 pts	59%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.86	-0.58	26%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-1.62	-1.84	8%	High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?

This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.

Test	Quintile	Obs	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	3M Hit	Avg 6M Max DD	Verdict	PM Read
Current macro quintile	4	585	1.3%	3.5%	8.2%	64%	-6.8%	Context only	Weak standalone macro edge; rely more on price, breadth, VAMS, options, and positioning.
All macro states baseline	All	2929	1.2%	3.6%	7.3%	66%	-8.3%	Baseline	Baseline for judging whether the current regime matters.
Best 3M macro quintile	1	597	1.2%	5.8%	9.2%	67%	-10.3%	Reference	Best historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Worst 3M macro quintile	2	574	0.8%	1.7%	3.2%	62%	-10.2%	Reference	Worst historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Current edge vs baseline	4		0.1%	-0.1%	0.9%	-1%	1.5%	Edge test	Positive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged.

Quintile Detail

Quintile	Current	Obs	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	3M Hit	Avg 6M Max DD	PM Read
1		597	1.2%	5.8%	9.2%	67%	-10.3%	Comparison bucket
2		574	0.8%	1.7%	3.2%	62%	-10.2%	Comparison bucket
3		579	0.8%	2.0%	6.9%	59%	-8.3%	Comparison bucket
4	Current	585	1.3%	3.5%	8.2%	64%	-6.8%	Current macro quintile
5		594	1.8%	4.8%	8.9%	76%	-5.8%	Comparison bucket