PM Read
Peer leader / overweight on pullbacks
price/trend score 61.9; DeMark rank 92.5; macro setup 36.0; peer leader #1 with group score 81.2
ETF Research Note
DXJ - Japan Hedged
International Equity context across the current Apex Macro deck stack: breadth, ETF technicals, VAMS, Options Intelligence, DeMark 9/13, CFTC positioning, rates/credit, Macro Lens, and allocation context.
Group: International Equity
Action: Peer leader / overweight on pullbacks
Composite: 63.5 / 100
Macro quintile: 1
Main Risk
No major current conflict across available inputs.
How To Use
Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.
Price176.98
1W2.9%
1M1.3%
3M5.1%
6M17.6%
1Y28.4%
Analyst Conclusion
This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.
| Analyst Verdict | Setup Quality | Best Support | Main Friction | Fresh Tape | Macro Use | Upgrade Trigger | Downgrade Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer leader / overweight on pullbacks | Usable but selective | ETF Technicals, Breadth, Rates / Credit | DeMark, Macro | Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rank | Context only | VAMS turns Buy or signal strength improves; options tape moves into a validated supportive setup | fresh 5D deterioration persists: Macro setup score; VAMS flips Sell or weakens materially; breadth rolls over or damage breadth rises |
One-Minute PM Summary
The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.
| Decision | Confidence | Agreement | Best Evidence | Main Conflict | What Changed Since Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Peer leader / overweight on pullbacks | Medium | 3 constructive / 2 conflict | ETF Technicals, Breadth, Rates / Credit | DeMark, Macro | Price: Improved (2.9%); Relative strength vs SPY: Improved (3.3%); DeMark technical rank: Improved (+27.5 pts) |
PM Action Framework
This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.
| Lens | Current Read | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-deck agreement | 60.0 / 100 | Medium confidence | 3 constructive, 0 neutral, 2 conflict across 5 layers. | Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it. |
| Position construction | Add / overweight candidate | price/trend score 61.9; DeMark rank 92.5; macro setup 36.0; peer leader #1 with group score 81.2 | Translates the signal stack into sizing language. |
| What changed since last week | Price improved (2.9%); Relative strength vs SPY improved (3.3%); DeMark technical rank improved (+27.5 pts); Macro setup score deteriorated (-5.7 pts) | Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available. | Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels. |
| Confirmation | ETF Technicals, Breadth, Rates / Credit | VAMS n/a; technical state Confirmed leadership. | Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart. |
| Invalidation | DeMark, Macro | No major current conflict across available inputs. | If these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair. |
Ticker Playbook
Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.
| Action | Rule | Current Status | Evidence To Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add / increase | Agreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto. | Selective add / pullback add | ETF Technicals, Breadth, Rates / Credit |
| Hold / monitor | Agreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup. | Appropriate | Trend state: Confirmed leadership; VAMS: n/a. |
| Trim / reduce | Multiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning. | Active risk | DeMark, Macro |
| Avoid / wait | Agreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation. | Not primary | No major current conflict across available inputs. |
| Recheck next week | Use the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels. | Deteriorating: Macro setup score | Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rank |
What Changed Since Last Week
Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.
| Signal | Now | 5D Ago | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 176.98 | 172.05 | 2.9% | Improved |
| Relative strength vs SPY | 0.240 | 0.232 | 3.3% | Improved |
| DeMark technical rank | 92.5 | 65.0 | +27.5 pts | Improved |
| Macro setup score | 36.0 | 41.8 | -5.7 pts | Deteriorated |
Price Trend And Relative Strength
Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI
Up candleDown candle50DMA DXJ/SPY ratio200DMA DXJ/SPY ratio14D RSI
Deck Cards
Breadth Proxy
No constituent file; using price-only trend and drawdown proxies.
Proxy score61.9
Price vs 50DMA1.8%
Price vs 200DMA7.9%
1Y drawdown-1.5%
ETF Holdings
Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.
Top 5 / 10 weightn/a / n/a
ETF Technicals
Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.
StateConfirmed leadership
Return Z-0.06
MA Dev Z0.02
DeMark 9/13
Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.
ActionHold / validate
SignalUpper 13
Rank92.5
CFTC Positioning
Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.
ProxyNo direct proxy
Rates / Credit
Macro risk-budget governor.
2s10s0.36
HY OAS2.77
MOVE70.88
Macro
Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.
PM stanceUnderweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime
Risk appetite34.2
Macro quintile1
Allocation
Model sleeve and current expression.
SleeveOwn Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market
RationaleUnderweight: non-US exposure has some VAMS repair, but the weak base score keeps the sleeve underweight until breadth improves.
ViewUnderweight
Peer / Group Rank
Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.
| Ticker | Current | Name | 1M | 3M | 50DMA Dist | 1Y DD | Composite Rank | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| DXJ | Current | Japan Hedged | 1.3% | 5.1% | 1.8% | -1.5% | #1 | |
| EWU | United Kingdom | 0.1% | 1.7% | 1.9% | -1.6% | #2 | ||
| EWA | Australia | 2.2% | 1.2% | 1.3% | -3.8% | #3 | ||
| EWZ | Brazil | 3.8% | -0.8% | 2.9% | -13.6% | #4 | ||
| FXI | China Large Cap | 8.4% | -1.9% | 3.2% | -14.6% | #4 | ||
| EZU | Eurozone | -1.9% | 1.7% | -0.7% | -2.8% | #6 | ||
| INDA | India | -3.1% | -0.8% | -1.8% | -12.4% | #7 | ||
| EEM | Emerging Markets | -3.6% | -3.4% | -4.8% | -11.1% | #8 |
Signal Stack
| Layer | Read | Score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Confirmed leadership | 1M 1.3%, 3M 5.1%, return z -0.06, MA dev z 0.02. | |
| Breadth | Price proxy only | No constituent breadth file; using price trend, drawdown, and MA distance as proxy. | |
| DeMark 9/13 | Hold / validate | Upper 13 21D: avg 0.7%, hit 31%, N 29 | |
| CFTC | n/a | No direct proxy: positioning pctile n/a, inst/HF %OI n/a, 13W change n/a. | |
| Rates / Credit | Risk-budget governor | 2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58. | |
| Macro | Underweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime | Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3. |
What The Evidence Means
Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.
| Layer | State | What It Means | PM Use | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Constructive | Price trend and relative performance are investable. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | Confirmed leadership; 1M 1.3%, 3M 5.1%. |
| Breadth | Constructive | Participation under the ETF is broad enough to support sizing. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used. |
| DeMark | Conflict | Exhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing. | Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check. | Upper 13 21D: avg 0.7%, hit 31%, N 29 |
| CFTC | Unavailable | Use as supporting context. | Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision. | No direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a. |
| Rates / Credit | Constructive | Macro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58. |
| Macro | Conflict | Macro backdrop fights the trade and reduces risk budget. | Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check. | Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3. |
Signal Agreement Detail
Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.
| Layer | State | Score | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Constructive | Confirmed leadership; 1M 1.3%, 3M 5.1%. | Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair. | |
| Breadth | Constructive | No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used. | Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up. | |
| DeMark | Conflict | Upper 13 21D: avg 0.7%, hit 31%, N 29 | Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk. | |
| CFTC | Unavailable | No direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a. | Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy. | |
| Rates / Credit | Constructive | HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58. | Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure. | |
| Macro | Conflict | Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3. | Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime. |
Plain-English Signal Guide
This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.
| Deck | Plain English | Current Read | How To Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Is price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing? | Confirmed leadership | Use z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups. |
| Breadth | Is the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders? | No constituent breadth file | Higher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing. |
| DeMark | Is the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup? | Hold / validate | Helpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts. |
| CFTC / Macro | Are positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade? | macro quintile 1 | Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget. |
Evidence Quality
Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.
| Evidence Layer | Quality | Sample / Coverage | How To Trust It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breadth | Thin | 0 | Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight. |
| VAMS | Thin | 0 | Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison. |
| Options | Thin | 0 | Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger. |
| DeMark | Thin | 30 | Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals. |
| CFTC | Thin | 0 | Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal. |
| Macro Quintile | High | 5,200 | Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes. |
| Rates / Credit | High | 1,842 | Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series. |
VAMS Momentum And Backtest
This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.
No VAMS history exists for this ticker.
Breadth Dashboard
Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.
No constituent-level breadth file exists for this ticker. The report uses price, trend, drawdown, and relative-strength context instead of actual constituent participation charts.
ETF Return Z-Scores
Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.
30D Return Z
Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.
30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
60D Return Z
Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.
60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
90D Return Z
Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.
90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
120D Return Z
Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.
120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores
These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.
20DMA Dev Z
Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.
20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
50DMA Dev Z
Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.
50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
100DMA Dev Z
Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.
100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
200DMA Dev Z
Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.
200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
Options Current Setup
No current Options Intelligence row available.
Options Validation Snapshot
Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.
No validation rows available.
No Options Intelligence history exists for this ticker.
DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context
This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.
Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13
DeMark 9/13 Read
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Daily | Upper setup 3/9 |
| Weekly | Upper countdown 2/13 |
| Ratio | Upper setup 4/9 |
| PM action | Hold / validate |
| Validation | Poor history |
CFTC Positioning
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Proxy | No direct proxy |
| Mapping | No futures-positioning proxy mapped |
DeMark Validation Snapshot
Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.
| Lens | Signal | Age | Alignment | Read | Evidence | 5D | 10D | 21D | 63D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current daily 9/13 signal | Upper 13 | 23 calendar days ago | Trend/RS Confirmed Leadership | Poor history | Upper 13 21D: avg 0.7%, hit 31%, N 29 | 0.1% / 47% / N 30 | 0.4% / 53% / N 30 | 0.7% / 31% / N 29 | 4.1% / 24% / N 29 |
| Daily / weekly / relative alignment | Upper 13 | 23 calendar days ago | Daily Only | Weak multipanel | Daily + Weekly 21D: median 0.5%, avg -0.5%, hit 44%, N 9 | med 0.3% / hit 44% / N 9 | med -0.4% / hit 67% / N 9 | med 0.5% / hit 44% / N 9 | med 5.3% / hit 33% / N 9 |
No CFTC proxy chart available.
Rates / Credit
| Metric | Latest | 1M Chg | 3Y Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y Treasury | 4.37 | 0.21 | 68.9 |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.71 | 0.21 | 97.4 |
| 2s10s | 0.36 | 0.06 | 57.5 |
| HY OAS | 2.77 | 0.01 | 17.3 |
| IG OAS | 0.79 | 0.04 | 20.3 |
| MOVE | 70.88 | 1.82 | 14.4 |
| VIX | 18.58 | -0.05 | 73.3 |
Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity
Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.
USD
Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.
DXJ priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.8% | 1.0% | 66% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | 0.61 | 0.40 | 85% | Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | 1.51 | 1.47 | 81% | Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
Oil
Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.
DXJ priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 31.5% | -4.7% | 100% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.56 | -0.15 | 10% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -0.06 | -0.04 | 24% | Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
10Y Yield
Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.
DXJ price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.21 pts | 0.07 pts | 82% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.41 | -0.25 | 10% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -8.47 | -7.31 | 10% | Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
HY Spreads
Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.
DXJ priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.01 pts | -0.08 pts | 62% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.56 | -0.30 | 38% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -16.91 | -8.62 | 20% | High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
MOVE
Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.
DXJ priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 1.8 pts | -3.5 pts | 61% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.40 | -0.22 | 48% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -0.13 | -0.05 | 43% | Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
VIX
Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.
DXJ priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | -0.0 pts | -1.6 pts | 54% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.49 | -0.46 | 67% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -0.49 | -0.42 | 54% | Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?
This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.
| Test | Quintile | Obs | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 3M Hit | Avg 6M Max DD | Verdict | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current macro quintile | 1 | 1037 | 0.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 61% | -6.6% | Context only | Weak standalone macro edge; rely more on price, breadth, VAMS, options, and positioning. |
| All macro states baseline | All | 5200 | 1.0% | 2.8% | 5.6% | 67% | -6.5% | Baseline | Baseline for judging whether the current regime matters. |
| Best 3M macro quintile | 2 | 1028 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 66% | -6.1% | Reference | Best historical macro quintile for this ticker. |
| Worst 3M macro quintile | 1 | 1037 | 0.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 61% | -6.6% | Reference | Worst historical macro quintile for this ticker. |
| Current edge vs baseline | 1 | -0.3% | -0.5% | -0.5% | -6% | -0.1% | Edge test | Positive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged. |
Quintile Detail
| Quintile | Current | Obs | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 3M Hit | Avg 6M Max DD | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Current | 1037 | 0.7% | 2.3% | 5.1% | 61% | -6.6% | Current macro quintile |
| 2 | 1028 | 1.1% | 3.2% | 5.5% | 66% | -6.1% | Comparison bucket | |
| 3 | 1051 | 1.2% | 2.8% | 5.2% | 64% | -6.9% | Comparison bucket | |
| 4 | 1036 | 1.0% | 3.1% | 6.4% | 72% | -6.1% | Comparison bucket | |
| 5 | 1048 | 0.8% | 2.7% | 5.8% | 72% | -6.8% | Comparison bucket |