GDXJ - Junior Gold Miners | Ticker Intelligence

PM Read

Underweight / avoid rallies

price/trend score 18.5; DeMark rank 6.2; holdings look-through 27.8; macro setup 36.0

Main Risk

Downtrend / avoid rallies; still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; DeMark validation is not confirming; largest current holdings are not confirming the ETF tape

How To Use

Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.

Analyst Conclusion

This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.

Analyst Verdict	Setup Quality	Best Support	Main Friction	Fresh Tape	Macro Use	Upgrade Trigger	Downgrade Trigger
Underweight / avoid rallies	Evidence conflict; reduce sizing	Rates / Credit	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, DeMark	Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY	Sizing context	VAMS turns Buy or signal strength improves; constituent breadth expands and damage falls; options tape moves into a validated supportive setup	fresh 5D deterioration persists: Macro setup score; VAMS flips Sell or weakens materially; rates/credit risk budget tightens further

One-Minute PM Summary

The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.

Decision	Confidence	Agreement	Best Evidence	Main Conflict	What Changed Since Last Week
Underweight / avoid rallies	Low	1 constructive / 5 conflict	Rates / Credit	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings	Price: Improved (6.7%); Relative strength vs SPY: Improved (7.2%); Macro setup score: Deteriorated (-5.7 pts)

PM Action Framework

This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.

Lens	Current Read	Evidence	PM Use
Cross-deck agreement	16.7 / 100 \| Low confidence	1 constructive, 0 neutral, 5 conflict across 6 layers.	Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it.
Position construction	Avoid / keep on watchlist	price/trend score 18.5; DeMark rank 6.2; holdings look-through 27.8; macro setup 36.0	Translates the signal stack into sizing language.
What changed since last week	Price improved (6.7%); Relative strength vs SPY improved (7.2%); Macro setup score deteriorated (-5.7 pts)	Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.	Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels.
Confirmation	Rates / Credit	VAMS n/a; technical state Downtrend / avoid rallies.	Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart.
Invalidation	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, DeMark, Macro	Downtrend / avoid rallies; still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; DeMark validation is not confirming; largest current holdings are not confirming the ETF tape	If these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair.

Ticker Playbook

Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.

Action	Rule	Current Status	Evidence To Watch
Add / increase	Agreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto.	Not yet	Rates / Credit
Hold / monitor	Agreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup.	Secondary	Trend state: Downtrend / avoid rallies; VAMS: n/a.
Trim / reduce	Multiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning.	Active risk	ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, DeMark, Macro
Avoid / wait	Agreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation.	Avoid	Downtrend / avoid rallies; still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; DeMark validation is not confirming; largest current holdings are not confirming the ETF tape
Recheck next week	Use the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels.	Deteriorating: Macro setup score	Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY

What Changed Since Last Week

Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.

Signal	Now	5D Ago	Change	Read
Price	97.80	91.66	6.7%	Improved
Relative strength vs SPY	0.132	0.124	7.2%	Improved
DeMark technical rank	6.2	4.4	+1.8 pts	Stable
Macro setup score	36.0	41.8	-5.7 pts	Deteriorated

Price Trend And Relative Strength

Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.

Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI

Up candleDown candle50DMA GDXJ/SPY ratio200DMA GDXJ/SPY ratio14D RSI

Deck Cards

Breadth Proxy

No constituent file; using price-only trend and drawdown proxies.

Proxy score18.5

Price vs 50DMA-2.6%

Price vs 200DMA-18.5%

1Y drawdown-37.4%

ETF Holdings

Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.

Holdings34

Top 5 / 10 weight13.2% / 18.9%

Confirmation27.8

ETF Technicals

Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.

StateDowntrend / avoid rallies

Return Z-0.80

MA Dev Z-0.70

DeMark 9/13

Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.

ActionDefer / avoid

SignalLower 13

Rank6.2

CFTC Positioning

Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.

ProxyNo direct proxy

Rates / Credit

Macro risk-budget governor.

2s10s0.36

HY OAS2.77

MOVE70.88

Macro

Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.

PM stanceUnderweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime

Risk appetite34.2

Macro quintile1

Allocation

Model sleeve and current expression.

SleeveOwn Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market

RationaleUnderweight: resource equities are damaged internally; wait for miner breadth to confirm before using this as a real-asset sleeve.

ViewUnderweight

ETF Look-Through: Holdings And Concentration

Holdings are the latest Alpha Vantage point-in-time ETF_PROFILE snapshot. Contribution estimates use current weights multiplied by recent holding returns; they are not historical attribution.

Holdings Snapshot

Holdings returned34

Top 3 / 5 / 109.9% / 13.2% / 18.9%

AUM$7.1B

Expense / turnover0.52% / 36.0%

Snapshot refreshed2026-07-25T18:42:35

Look-Through Verdict

Top 10 holdings: look-through warns that the ETF headline trend is fragile; 10% above 50DMA, 50% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 13.2%.

Confirmation score27.8 / 100

Top 10 above 50DMA10%

Top 10 positive 1M / 3M50% / 0%

Top 10 1M / 3M contribution0.23% / -2.48%

Top 10 Holdings Table

60D Return Z is each holding's 60-day return measured against that stock's own recent return history.

Holding	Name	Weight	1W	1M	3M	Above 50DMA	60D Return Z	1M Contribution	3M Contribution
CDE	COEUR MINING INC	5.10%	5.4%	-2.2%	-19.8%	No	-0.96	-0.11%	-1.01%
HL	HECLA MINING CO	2.68%	5.7%	4.3%	-17.9%	No	-1.06	0.11%	-0.48%
HMY	HARMONY GOLD MINING CO LTD ADR	2.08%	8.3%	8.8%	-4.0%	No	-0.15	0.18%	-0.08%
OGC	OCEANAGOLD CORP	1.72%	5.9%	-2.1%	n/a	No	n/a	-0.04%	n/a
BVN	COMPANIA DE MINAS BUENAVENTURA SAA ADR	1.60%	2.2%	3.9%	-3.3%	No	-0.87	0.06%	-0.05%
SSRM	SSR MINING INC	1.56%	5.0%	-5.3%	-10.0%	No	-1.15	-0.08%	-0.16%
OR	OR ROYALTIES INC	1.28%	3.2%	-7.0%	-27.1%	No	-1.43	-0.09%	-0.35%
ARIS	ARIS MINING CORP	0.99%	5.2%	-0.3%	-21.9%	No	-1.63	-0.00%	-0.22%
SKE	SKEENA RESOURCES LTD	0.94%	7.7%	6.2%	-14.7%	No	-1.04	0.06%	-0.14%
AYA	AYA GOLD & SILVER INC	0.91%	5.1%	15.1%	n/a	Yes	n/a	0.14%	n/a

Sector Exposure

Sector	Weight
MATERIALS	12.5%
COMMUNICATION SERVICES	6.1%
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY	0.0%
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY	0.0%
HEALTHCARE	0.0%
CONSUMER STAPLES	0.0%
INDUSTRIALS	0.0%
UTILITIES	0.0%

Top Holding Price Checks

Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price

Peer / Group Rank

Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.

Ticker	Current	Name	1M	3M	50DMA Dist	1Y DD	Composite Rank	Score
WOOD		Timber	3.9%	6.5%	2.9%	-15.1%	#1	97.2
HAP		Hard Assets	3.1%	-1.5%	2.4%	-4.4%	#2	91.7
COPX		Copper Miners	1.4%	-6.4%	-1.5%	-18.5%	#3	77.8
GDX		Gold Miners	-4.1%	-11.5%	-2.5%	-35.1%	#4	61.1
XME		Metals & Mining	-3.2%	-13.0%	-6.3%	-23.4%	#5	50.0
GDXJ	Current	Junior Gold Miners	-5.0%	-12.4%	-2.6%	-37.4%	#6	47.2
SIL		Silver Miners	-5.9%	-14.3%	-3.5%	-36.0%	#7	36.1
SILJ		Junior Silver Miners	-7.3%	-14.1%	-4.8%	-38.5%	#8	25.0
URNM		Uranium Miners	-6.4%	-15.1%	-6.9%	-41.1%	#9	13.9

Signal Stack

Layer	Read	Score	Evidence
ETF Technicals	Downtrend / avoid rallies	18.5	1M -5.0%, 3M -12.4%, return z -0.80, MA dev z -0.70.
Breadth	Price proxy only	18.5	No constituent breadth file; using price trend, drawdown, and MA distance as proxy.
ETF Holdings	Top-holding confirmation	27.8	Top 10 holdings: look-through warns that the ETF headline trend is fragile; 10% above 50DMA, 50% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 13.2%.
DeMark 9/13	Defer / avoid	6.2	Lower 13 21D: avg 4.2%, hit 71%, N 17
CFTC	n/a	n/a	No direct proxy: positioning pctile n/a, inst/HF %OI n/a, 13W change n/a.
Rates / Credit	Risk-budget governor	68.7	2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.
Macro	Underweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime	36.0	Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.

What The Evidence Means

Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.

Layer	State	What It Means	PM Use	Evidence
ETF Technicals	Conflict	Price is either extended without support or still in repair.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Downtrend / avoid rallies; 1M -5.0%, 3M -12.4%.
Breadth	Conflict	Damage or weak constituent participation argues for smaller sizing.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.
ETF Holdings	Conflict	The headline ETF signal is not being confirmed by the largest current holdings.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Top 10 holdings: look-through warns that the ETF headline trend is fragile; 10% above 50DMA, 50% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 13.2%.
DeMark	Conflict	Exhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Lower 13 21D: avg 4.2%, hit 71%, N 17
CFTC	Unavailable	Use as supporting context.	Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision.	No direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a.
Rates / Credit	Constructive	Macro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.
Macro	Conflict	Macro backdrop fights the trade and reduces risk budget.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.

Signal Agreement Detail

Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.

Layer	State	Score	Evidence	PM Use
ETF Technicals	Conflict	18.5	Downtrend / avoid rallies; 1M -5.0%, 3M -12.4%.	Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair.
Breadth	Conflict	18.5	No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.	Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up.
ETF Holdings	Conflict	27.8	Top 10 holdings: look-through warns that the ETF headline trend is fragile; 10% above 50DMA, 50% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 13.2%.	Checks whether the ETF's largest current holdings are confirming or masking the ETF-level signal.
DeMark	Conflict	6.2	Lower 13 21D: avg 4.2%, hit 71%, N 17	Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk.
CFTC	Unavailable	n/a	No direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a.	Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy.
Rates / Credit	Constructive	68.7	HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.	Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure.
Macro	Conflict	36.0	Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.	Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime.

Plain-English Signal Guide

This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.

Deck	Plain English	Current Read	How To Use
ETF Technicals	Is price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing?	Downtrend / avoid rallies	Use z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups.
Breadth	Is the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders?	No constituent breadth file	Higher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing.
ETF Holdings	Are the ETF's largest current holdings confirming or masking the ETF-level signal?	Top 10 holdings: look-through warns that the ETF headline trend is fragile; 10% above 50DMA, 50% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 13.2%.	Use current-weight contribution and concentration as a look-through check, not as historical attribution.
DeMark	Is the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup?	Defer / avoid	Helpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts.
CFTC / Macro	Are positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade?	macro quintile 1	Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget.

Evidence Quality

Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.

Evidence Layer	Quality	Sample / Coverage	How To Trust It
Breadth	Thin	0	Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight.
VAMS	Thin	0	Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison.
Options	Thin	0	Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger.
DeMark	Thin	17	Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals.
CFTC	Thin	0	Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal.
Macro Quintile	High	5,200	Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes.
Rates / Credit	High	1,842	Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series.

VAMS Momentum And Backtest

This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.

No VAMS history exists for this ticker.

Breadth Dashboard

Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.

No constituent-level breadth file exists for this ticker. The report uses price, trend, drawdown, and relative-strength context instead of actual constituent participation charts.

ETF Return Z-Scores

Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.

30D Return Z

Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.

30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

60D Return Z

Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.

60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

90D Return Z

Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.

90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

120D Return Z

Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.

120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores

These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.

20DMA Dev Z

Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.

20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

50DMA Dev Z

Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.

50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

100DMA Dev Z

Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.

100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

200DMA Dev Z

Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.

200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Options Current Setup

No current Options Intelligence row available.

Options Validation Snapshot

Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.

No validation rows available.

No Options Intelligence history exists for this ticker.

DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context

This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.

Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13

DeMark 9/13 Read

Metric	Value
Daily	Upper setup 4/9
Weekly	Lower setup 3/9
Ratio	Upper setup 4/9
PM action	Defer / avoid
Validation	Strong history

CFTC Positioning

Metric	Value
Proxy	No direct proxy
Mapping	No futures-positioning proxy mapped

DeMark Validation Snapshot

Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.

Lens	Signal	Age	Alignment	Read	Evidence	5D	10D	21D	63D
Current daily 9/13 signal	Lower 13	37 calendar days ago	Weak / Defer	Strong history	Lower 13 21D: avg 4.2%, hit 71%, N 17	-0.2% / 53% / N 17	1.0% / 59% / N 17	4.2% / 71% / N 17	12.1% / 75% / N 16
Daily / weekly / relative alignment	Lower 13	37 calendar days ago	Daily Only	Low sample	Daily + Weekly + Ratio 21D: median 2.1%, avg 2.1%, hit 100%, N 2	med 2.9% / hit 100% / N 2	med 1.6% / hit 50% / N 2	med 2.1% / hit 100% / N 2	med -6.4% / hit 50% / N 2

No CFTC proxy chart available.

Rates / Credit

Metric	Latest	1M Chg	3Y Pctile
2Y Treasury	4.37	0.21	68.9
10Y Treasury	4.71	0.21	97.4
2s10s	0.36	0.06	57.5
HY OAS	2.77	0.01	17.3
IG OAS	0.79	0.04	20.3
MOVE	70.88	1.82	14.4
VIX	18.58	-0.05	73.3

Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity

Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.

USD

Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.

GDXJ priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.8%	1.0%	66%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	0.26	-0.18	88%	Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	1.46	-1.79	88%	Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Oil

Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.

GDXJ priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	31.5%	-4.7%	100%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.26	-0.15	28%	Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-0.06	-0.13	38%	Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

10Y Yield

Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.

GDXJ price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.21 pts	0.07 pts	82%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.12	-0.58	53%	Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-7.93	-48.84	50%	Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

HY Spreads

Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.

GDXJ priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.01 pts	-0.08 pts	62%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.73	-0.59	13%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-63.87	-51.82	5%	High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

MOVE

Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.

GDXJ priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	1.8 pts	-3.5 pts	61%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.25	-0.63	42%	Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-0.26	-0.44	34%	Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

VIX

Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.

GDXJ priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	-0.0 pts	-1.6 pts	54%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.69	-0.68	16%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-2.15	-2.01	10%	High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?

This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.

Test	Quintile	Obs	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	3M Hit	Avg 6M Max DD	Verdict	PM Read
Current macro quintile	1	1037	0.6%	3.4%	5.8%	51%	-16.3%	Sizing context	Moderate macro edge; useful as a sizing/context layer.
All macro states baseline	All	5200	0.5%	1.5%	3.0%	49%	-16.0%	Baseline	Baseline for judging whether the current regime matters.
Best 3M macro quintile	1	1037	0.6%	3.4%	5.8%	51%	-16.3%	Reference	Best historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Worst 3M macro quintile	3	1051	0.4%	-1.0%	-0.2%	46%	-17.1%	Reference	Worst historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Current edge vs baseline	1		0.1%	1.9%	2.8%	3%	-0.3%	Edge test	Positive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged.

Quintile Detail

Quintile	Current	Obs	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	3M Hit	Avg 6M Max DD	PM Read
1	Current	1037	0.6%	3.4%	5.8%	51%	-16.3%	Current macro quintile
2		1028	0.6%	2.7%	2.9%	52%	-14.7%	Comparison bucket
3		1051	0.4%	-1.0%	-0.2%	46%	-17.1%	Comparison bucket
4		1036	0.7%	0.5%	2.6%	47%	-15.9%	Comparison bucket
5		1048	0.4%	1.7%	4.0%	48%	-16.0%	Comparison bucket