APEX MACRO RESEARCH | TICKER INTELLIGENCE
Generated 2026-09-25 19:36

ETF Research Note

MAGS - Magnificent 7

Style / Market Structure context across the current Apex Macro deck stack: breadth, ETF technicals, VAMS, Options Intelligence, DeMark 9/13, CFTC positioning, rates/credit, Macro Lens, and allocation context.

Group: Style / Market Structure Action: High-conviction overweight / add Composite: 76.4 / 100 Macro quintile: 3

PM Read

High-conviction overweight / add

price/trend score 80.4; DeMark rank 94.7; holdings look-through 76.0; macro setup 54.5; peer leader #1 with group score 100.0

Main Risk

top holdings concentration is high

How To Use

Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.

Price72.64
1W3.1%
1M4.6%
3M15.0%
6M4.7%
1Y11.9%

Analyst Conclusion

This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.

Analyst VerdictSetup QualityBest SupportMain FrictionFresh TapeMacro UseUpgrade TriggerDowngrade Trigger
High-conviction overweight / addHigh-quality confirmationETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / CreditDeMarkImproving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rankContext onlyVAMS turns Buy or signal strength improves; options tape moves into a validated supportive setupVAMS flips Sell or weakens materially; breadth rolls over or damage breadth rises; rates/credit risk budget tightens further

One-Minute PM Summary

The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.

DecisionConfidenceAgreementBest EvidenceMain ConflictWhat Changed Since Last Week
High-conviction overweight / addHigh4 constructive / 1 conflictETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / CreditDeMarkPrice: Improved (3.1%); Relative strength vs SPY: Improved (1.8%); DeMark technical rank: Improved (+76.6 pts)

PM Action Framework

This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.

LensCurrent ReadEvidencePM Use
Cross-deck agreement75.0 / 100 | High confidence4 constructive, 1 neutral, 1 conflict across 6 layers.Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it.
Position constructionFull position candidateprice/trend score 80.4; DeMark rank 94.7; holdings look-through 76.0; macro setup 54.5; peer leader #1 with group score 100.0Translates the signal stack into sizing language.
What changed since last weekPrice improved (3.1%); Relative strength vs SPY improved (1.8%); DeMark technical rank improved (+76.6 pts); Macro setup score improved (+8.9 pts)Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels.
ConfirmationETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / CreditVAMS n/a; technical state Confirmed leadership.Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart.
InvalidationDeMarktop holdings concentration is highIf these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair.

Ticker Playbook

Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.

ActionRuleCurrent StatusEvidence To Watch
Add / increaseAgreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto.Allowed nowETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / Credit
Hold / monitorAgreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup.SecondaryTrend state: Confirmed leadership; VAMS: n/a.
Trim / reduceMultiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning.WatchDeMark
Avoid / waitAgreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation.Not primarytop holdings concentration is high
Recheck next weekUse the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels.Improving/stableImproving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rank

What Changed Since Last Week

Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.

SignalNow5D AgoChangeRead
Price72.6470.463.1%Improved
Relative strength vs SPY0.0940.0931.8%Improved
DeMark technical rank94.718.1+76.6 ptsImproved
Macro setup score54.545.7+8.9 ptsImproved

Price Trend And Relative Strength

Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.

MAGS Price Trend 36.757.277.7 14D RSI 305070 2025-04-22 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI
Relative Strength Vs S&P 500 0.10.10.1 14D RSI 305070 2025-04-22 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candle50DMA MAGS/SPY ratio200DMA MAGS/SPY ratio14D RSI

Deck Cards

Breadth Proxy

No constituent file; using price-only trend and drawdown proxies.

Proxy score80.4
Price vs 50DMA5.0%
Price vs 200DMA10.1%
1Y drawdown-0.5%

ETF Holdings

Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.

Holdings7
Top 5 / 10 weight76.2% / 100.0%
Confirmation76.0

ETF Technicals

Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.

StateConfirmed leadership
Return Z0.53
MA Dev Z0.65

DeMark 9/13

Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.

ActionHold / validate
SignalUpper 9
Rank94.7

CFTC Positioning

Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.

ProxyNo direct proxy

Rates / Credit

Macro risk-budget governor.

2s10s0.36
HY OAS2.80
MOVE96.00

Macro

Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.

Risk appetite59.7
Macro quintile3

Allocation

Model sleeve and current expression.

SleeveOwn Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market
RationaleNeutral: style and size leadership is one of the better internal reads; use it to choose the expression rather than lifting all beta.
ViewNeutral

ETF Look-Through: Holdings And Concentration

Holdings are the latest Alpha Vantage point-in-time ETF_PROFILE snapshot. Contribution estimates use current weights multiplied by recent holding returns; they are not historical attribution.

Holdings Snapshot

Holdings returned7
Top 3 / 5 / 748.5% / 76.2% / 100.0%
AUM$4.3B
Expense / turnover0.30% / 27.0%
Snapshot refreshed2026-09-25T19:14:20

Look-Through Verdict

Top 7 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 71% above 50DMA, 86% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 76.2%.

Confirmation score76.0 / 100
Top 7 above 50DMA71%
Top 7 positive 1M / 3M86% / 86%
Top 7 1M / 3M contribution8.21% / 18.97%
MAGS: Top 7 Holding Weights Value MSFT17.64%META15.71%AAPL15.15%NVDA14.01%AMZN13.71%GOOGL12.71%TSLA11.06%
MAGS: Current-Weight 1M Contribution Value MSFT0.70%META4.79%AAPL1.33%NVDA1.03%AMZN-0.56%GOOGL0.07%TSLA0.84%

Top 7 Holdings Table

60D Return Z is each holding's 60-day return measured against that stock's own recent return history.

HoldingNameWeight1W1M3MAbove 50DMA60D Return Z1M Contribution3M Contribution
MSFTMICROSOFT CORP17.64%4.5%4.0%38.4%Yes2.600.70%6.77%
METAMETA PLATFORMS INC CLASS A15.71%12.9%30.5%36.6%Yes2.634.79%5.75%
AAPLAPPLE INC15.15%1.5%8.8%20.2%Yes0.621.33%3.06%
NVDANVIDIA CORP14.01%1.3%7.3%16.9%Yes1.121.03%2.37%
AMZNAMAZON.COM INC13.71%-1.6%-4.1%7.3%No-0.00-0.56%1.00%
GOOGLALPHABET INC12.71%-1.6%0.6%1.9%No-1.100.07%0.25%
TSLATESLA INC11.06%2.2%7.6%-2.0%Yes-0.810.84%-0.22%

Sector Exposure

SectorWeight
INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY16.0%
COMMUNICATION SERVICES8.2%
CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY7.8%
HEALTHCARE0.0%
CONSUMER STAPLES0.0%
INDUSTRIALS0.0%
MATERIALS0.0%
UTILITIES0.0%

Top Holding Price Checks

MSFT: Top Holding Now 516.17 325.4434.3543.2 2026-02-06 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
META: Top Holding Now 751.66 483.9650.0816.2 2026-02-06 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
AAPL: Top Holding Now 341.07 223.6292.0360.3 2026-02-06 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
NVDA: Top Holding Now 225.07 154.2200.4246.7 2026-02-06 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
AMZN: Top Holding Now 249.67 183.2241.6300.0 2026-02-06 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price

Peer / Group Rank

Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.

TickerCurrentName1M3M50DMA Dist1Y DDComposite RankScore
MAGSCurrentMagnificent 74.6%15.0%5.0%-0.5%#1
100.0
IWFGrowth2.4%7.4%2.5%-1.8%#2
83.3
XMAGEx-Mag 7-0.8%1.5%-0.8%-2.9%#3
58.3
IWDValue-1.9%1.9%-1.4%-2.5%#4
54.2
SPXTEx-Tech S&P-1.8%0.8%-1.6%-3.1%#5
37.5
VOMid Cap-2.8%-0.7%-2.5%-5.3%#6
16.7

Signal Stack

LayerReadScoreEvidence
ETF TechnicalsConfirmed leadership
80.4
1M 4.6%, 3M 15.0%, return z 0.53, MA dev z 0.65.
BreadthPrice proxy only
80.4
No constituent breadth file; using price trend, drawdown, and MA distance as proxy.
ETF HoldingsTop-holding confirmation
76.0
Top 7 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 71% above 50DMA, 86% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 76.2%.
DeMark 9/13Hold / validate
94.7
Upper 9 21D: avg 1.8%, hit 35%, N 20
CFTCn/an/aNo direct proxy: positioning pctile n/a, inst/HF %OI n/a, 13W change n/a.
Rates / CreditRisk-budget governor
66.9
2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87.
Macron/a
54.5
Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7.

What The Evidence Means

Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.

LayerStateWhat It MeansPM UseEvidence
ETF TechnicalsConstructivePrice trend and relative performance are investable.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.Confirmed leadership; 1M 4.6%, 3M 15.0%.
BreadthConstructiveParticipation under the ETF is broad enough to support sizing.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.
ETF HoldingsConstructiveThe ETF's largest current holdings are confirming the ETF-level tape.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.Top 7 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 71% above 50DMA, 86% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 76.2%.
DeMarkConflictExhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing.Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.Upper 9 21D: avg 1.8%, hit 35%, N 20
CFTCUnavailableUse as supporting context.Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision.No direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a.
Rates / CreditConstructiveMacro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87.
MacroNeutralMacro is a context layer, not a primary driver here.Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision.Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7.

Signal Agreement Detail

Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.

LayerStateScoreEvidencePM Use
ETF TechnicalsConstructive
80.4
Confirmed leadership; 1M 4.6%, 3M 15.0%.Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair.
BreadthConstructive
80.4
No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up.
ETF HoldingsConstructive
76.0
Top 7 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 71% above 50DMA, 86% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 76.2%.Checks whether the ETF's largest current holdings are confirming or masking the ETF-level signal.
DeMarkConflict
94.7
Upper 9 21D: avg 1.8%, hit 35%, N 20Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk.
CFTCUnavailablen/aNo direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a.Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy.
Rates / CreditConstructive
66.9
HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87.Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure.
MacroNeutral
54.5
Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7.Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime.

Plain-English Signal Guide

This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.

DeckPlain EnglishCurrent ReadHow To Use
ETF TechnicalsIs price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing?Confirmed leadershipUse z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups.
BreadthIs the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders?No constituent breadth fileHigher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing.
ETF HoldingsAre the ETF's largest current holdings confirming or masking the ETF-level signal?Top 7 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 71% above 50DMA, 86% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 76.2%.Use current-weight contribution and concentration as a look-through check, not as historical attribution.
DeMarkIs the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup?Hold / validateHelpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts.
CFTC / MacroAre positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade?macro quintile 3Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget.

Evidence Quality

Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.

Evidence LayerQualitySample / CoverageHow To Trust It
BreadthThin0Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight.
VAMSThin0Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison.
OptionsThin0Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger.
DeMarkThin21Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals.
CFTCThin0Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal.
Macro QuintileHigh1,138Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes.
Rates / CreditHigh411Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series.

VAMS Momentum And Backtest

This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.

No VAMS history exists for this ticker.

Breadth Dashboard

Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.

No constituent-level breadth file exists for this ticker. The report uses price, trend, drawdown, and relative-strength context instead of actual constituent participation charts.

ETF Return Z-Scores

Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.

30D Return Z

Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.

MAGS: 30D Return Z Current: 0.76 -4.6-0.34.1 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

60D Return Z

Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.

MAGS: 60D Return Z Current: 1.07 -4.3-0.63.2 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

90D Return Z

Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.

MAGS: 90D Return Z Current: 0.98 -4.4-0.63.3 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

120D Return Z

Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.

MAGS: 120D Return Z Current: -0.44 -4.7-0.63.5 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores

These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.

20DMA Dev Z

Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.

MAGS: 20DMA Dev Z Current: 0.76 -4.9-0.53.9 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

50DMA Dev Z

Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.

MAGS: 50DMA Dev Z Current: 0.65 -4.7-0.63.5 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

100DMA Dev Z

Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.

MAGS: 100DMA Dev Z Current: 0.67 -4.8-0.83.2 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

200DMA Dev Z

Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.

MAGS: 200DMA Dev Z Current: 0.43 -5.0-1.12.9 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Options Current Setup

No current Options Intelligence row available.

Options Validation Snapshot

Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.

No validation rows available.

No Options Intelligence history exists for this ticker.

DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context

This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.

MAGS: DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context Last trigger: Upper 9 2 calendar days ago 52.164.376.4 991399999 2026-02-23 2026-09-25
Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13

DeMark 9/13 Read

MetricValue
DailyLower setup 1/9
WeeklyUpper countdown 3/13
RatioUpper countdown 11/13
PM actionHold / validate
ValidationPoor history

CFTC Positioning

MetricValue
ProxyNo direct proxy
MappingNo futures-positioning proxy mapped

DeMark Validation Snapshot

Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.

LensSignalAgeAlignmentReadEvidence5D10D21D63D
Current daily 9/13 signalUpper 92 calendar days agoTrend/RS Confirmed LeadershipPoor historyUpper 9 21D: avg 1.8%, hit 35%, N 20-0.2% / 52% / N 210.7% / 48% / N 211.8% / 35% / N 205.0% / 26% / N 19
Daily / weekly / relative alignmentUpper 92 calendar days agoDaily + RatioLow sampleDaily + Ratio 21D: median 2.9%, avg 2.3%, hit 29%, N 7med -1.1% / hit 57% / N 7med 0.9% / hit 43% / N 7med 2.9% / hit 29% / N 7med 11.3% / hit 29% / N 7

No CFTC proxy chart available.

Rates / Credit

MetricLatest1M Chg3Y Pctile
2Y Treasury4.870.7091.0
10Y Treasury5.180.54100.0
2s10s0.36-0.1153.4
HY OAS2.800.1326.0
IG OAS0.79-0.0122.4
MOVE96.0026.1457.1
VIX14.870.3627.1

Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity

Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.

USD

Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.

MAGS Macro Sensitivity: USD 35.956.476.9MAGS priceNow 72.6-6.3-0.84.8USD 21D return %Now 1.9-1.16-0.021.12Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.49-12.87-1.769.34Rolling 30D betaNow 1.22 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
MAGS priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move1.9%-0.1%86%High pressure versus this driver's own history.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.49-0.4889%Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta1.22-2.9386%Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Oil

Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.

MAGS Macro Sensitivity: Oil 35.956.476.9MAGS priceNow 72.6-33.814.061.9Oil 21D return %Now 4.5-1.120.011.15Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.01-2.85-0.172.50Rolling 30D betaNow 0.00 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
MAGS priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move4.5%9.1%70%Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.01-0.3441%Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta0.00-0.1441%Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

10Y Yield

Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.

MAGS Macro Sensitivity: 10Y Yield 35.956.476.9MAGS priceNow 72.6-0.60.10.710Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsNow 0.5-1.13-0.051.04Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.10-71.06-8.4154.23Rolling 30D betaNow 2.45 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
MAGS price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move0.54 pts0.14 pts98%High pressure versus this driver's own history.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.100.1656%Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta2.459.6658%Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

HY Spreads

Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.

MAGS Macro Sensitivity: HY Spreads 35.956.476.9MAGS priceNow 72.6-1.60.22.0HY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsNow 0.1-1.12-0.230.66Rolling 30D correlationNow -0.35-65.75-20.9023.95Rolling 30D betaNow -12.33 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
MAGS priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move0.13 pts-0.02 pts80%High pressure versus this driver's own history.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr-0.35-0.4268%Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta-12.33-21.4949%Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

MOVE

Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.

MAGS Macro Sensitivity: MOVE 35.956.476.9MAGS priceNow 72.6-58.53.064.5MOVE 21D change, index ptsNow 26.1-1.12-0.170.79Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.14-0.90-0.150.59Rolling 30D betaNow 0.04 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
MAGS priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move26.1 pts3.4 pts95%High pressure versus this driver's own history.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.140.1289%Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta0.040.1088%Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

VIX

Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.

MAGS Macro Sensitivity: VIX 35.956.476.9MAGS priceNow 72.6-36.4-2.731.0VIX 21D change, index ptsNow 0.4-1.11-0.320.47Rolling 30D correlationNow -0.36-2.70-0.860.98Rolling 30D betaNow -0.52 2024-08-07 2026-09-25
MAGS priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move0.4 pts-0.8 pts59%Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr-0.36-0.5178%Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta-0.52-1.0570%Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?

This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.

TestQuintileObsAvg 1MAvg 3MAvg 6M3M HitAvg 6M Max DDVerdictPM Read
Current macro quintile32312.8%4.9%9.9%63%-6.6%Context onlyWeak standalone macro edge; rely more on price, breadth, VAMS, options, and positioning.
All macro states baselineAll11382.0%5.6%11.0%70%-7.1%BaselineBaseline for judging whether the current regime matters.
Best 3M macro quintile12222.2%7.3%12.4%77%-10.2%ReferenceBest historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Worst 3M macro quintile22141.2%4.1%8.9%64%-9.0%ReferenceWorst historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Current edge vs baseline30.8%-0.7%-1.1%-7%0.5%Edge testPositive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged.

Quintile Detail

QuintileCurrentObsAvg 1MAvg 3MAvg 6M3M HitAvg 6M Max DDPM Read
12222.2%7.3%12.4%77%-10.2%Comparison bucket
22141.2%4.1%8.9%64%-9.0%Comparison bucket
3Current2312.8%4.9%9.9%63%-6.6%Current macro quintile
42352.1%5.8%11.6%70%-6.0%Comparison bucket
52361.5%6.0%12.0%75%-4.2%Comparison bucket