ETF Research Note

SLV - Silver

Commodities / Crypto / USD context across the current Apex Macro deck stack: breadth, ETF technicals, VAMS, Options Intelligence, DeMark 9/13, CFTC positioning, rates/credit, Macro Lens, and allocation context.

Group: Commodities / Crypto / USD Action: Underweight / avoid rallies Composite: 31.4 / 100 Macro quintile: 1

PM Read

Underweight / avoid rallies

price/trend score 15.4; VAMS Sell; options setup 64.3; DeMark rank 6.2; macro setup 36.0

Main Risk

Downtrend / avoid rallies; still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; VAMS still withholding risk; DeMark validation is not confirming

How To Use

Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.

Price52.59

1W3.2%

1M-4.4%

3M-23.1%

6M-14.5%

1Y14.4%

Analyst Conclusion

This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.

Analyst Verdict	Setup Quality	Best Support	Main Friction	Fresh Tape	Macro Use	Upgrade Trigger	Downgrade Trigger
Underweight / avoid rallies	Evidence conflict; reduce sizing	Options, CFTC, Rates / Credit	ETF Technicals, Breadth, VAMS, DeMark	Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, VAMS signal	Context only	VAMS turns Buy or signal strength improves; constituent breadth expands and damage falls	fresh 5D deterioration persists: Options setup score, Macro setup score; rates/credit risk budget tightens further

One-Minute PM Summary

The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.

Decision	Confidence	Agreement	Best Evidence	Main Conflict	What Changed Since Last Week
Underweight / avoid rallies	Low	3 constructive / 5 conflict	Options, CFTC, Rates / Credit	ETF Technicals, Breadth, VAMS	Price: Improved (3.2%); Relative strength vs SPY: Improved (3.6%); VAMS signal: Improved (+0.46)

PM Action Framework

This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.

Lens	Current Read	Evidence	PM Use
Cross-deck agreement	37.5 / 100 \| Low confidence	3 constructive, 0 neutral, 5 conflict across 8 layers.	Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it.
Position construction	Avoid / keep on watchlist	price/trend score 15.4; VAMS Sell; options setup 64.3; DeMark rank 6.2; macro setup 36.0	Translates the signal stack into sizing language.
What changed since last week	Price improved (3.2%); Relative strength vs SPY improved (3.6%); VAMS signal improved (+0.46); Options setup score deteriorated (-20.9 pts)	Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.	Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels.
Confirmation	Options, CFTC, Rates / Credit	VAMS Sell; technical state Downtrend / avoid rallies.	Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart.
Invalidation	ETF Technicals, Breadth, VAMS, DeMark, Macro	Downtrend / avoid rallies; still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; VAMS still withholding risk; DeMark validation is not confirming	If these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair.

Ticker Playbook

Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.

Action	Rule	Current Status	Evidence To Watch
Add / increase	Agreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto.	Not yet	Options, CFTC, Rates / Credit
Hold / monitor	Agreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup.	Secondary	Trend state: Downtrend / avoid rallies; VAMS: Sell.
Trim / reduce	Multiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning.	Active risk	ETF Technicals, Breadth, VAMS, DeMark, Macro
Avoid / wait	Agreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation.	Avoid	Downtrend / avoid rallies; still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; VAMS still withholding risk; DeMark validation is not confirming
Recheck next week	Use the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels.	Deteriorating: Options setup score, Macro setup score	Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, VAMS signal

What Changed Since Last Week

Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.

Signal	Now	5D Ago	Change	Read
Price	52.59	50.98	3.2%	Improved
Relative strength vs SPY	0.071	0.069	3.6%	Improved
VAMS signal	Sell (0.27)	Sell (-0.19)	+0.46	Improved
Options setup score	65.5	86.3	-20.9 pts	Deteriorated
DeMark technical rank	6.2	8.4	-2.2 pts	Stable
Macro setup score	36.0	41.8	-5.7 pts	Deteriorated

Price Trend And Relative Strength

Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.

Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI

Up candleDown candle50DMA SLV/SPY ratio200DMA SLV/SPY ratio14D RSI

Deck Cards

Breadth Proxy

No constituent file; using price-only trend and drawdown proxies.

Proxy score15.4

Price vs 50DMA-5.6%

Price vs 200DMA-23.4%

1Y drawdown-50.2%

ETF Holdings

Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.

Top 5 / 10 weightn/a / n/a

ETF Technicals

Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.

StateDowntrend / avoid rallies

Return Z-0.65

MA Dev Z-0.86

VAMS

Volume-confirmed volatility-adjusted momentum.

SignalSell

VAMS0.27

Since2026-07-08

Options

Validated options tape and setup pressure.

PM actionRisk control

Setup64.3

ValidationHigh Setup Pressure led to worse returns

DeMark 9/13

Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.

ActionDefer / avoid

SignalLower 9

Rank6.2

CFTC Positioning

Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.

ProxySilver

ReadBalanced

3Y pctile31.4

Rates / Credit

Macro risk-budget governor.

2s10s0.36

HY OAS2.77

MOVE70.88

Macro

Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.

PM stanceUnderweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime

Risk appetite34.2

Macro quintile1

Allocation

Model sleeve and current expression.

SleeveOwn Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market

RationaleUnderweight: macro hedge signals are weak and damage is elevated; keep commodity/crypto/USD exposure tactical only.

ViewUnderweight

Peer / Group Rank

Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.

Ticker	Current	Name	1M	3M	50DMA Dist	1Y DD	Composite Rank	Score
DBA		Agriculture	5.6%	2.5%	4.2%	-1.7%	#1	84.6
DBC		Commodities	13.3%	-1.4%	7.4%	-5.0%	#1	84.6
GSG		Commodities	15.5%	-1.4%	8.8%	-5.8%	#3	82.7
USO		Oil	31.5%	-3.0%	16.2%	-10.6%	#4	78.8
UUP		US Dollar	0.8%	2.9%	1.0%	0.0%	#5	76.9
CPER		Copper	2.8%	-1.5%	0.5%	-5.5%	#6	65.4
DBB		Base Metals	3.0%	-4.7%	-0.1%	-7.3%	#7	57.7
BTC-USD		Bitcoin	2.0%	-16.1%	1.8%	-33.6%	#8	48.1
GLD		Gold	-1.6%	-10.1%	-1.8%	-25.0%	#9	36.5
PALL		Palladium	-1.5%	-8.0%	-1.1%	-39.3%	#9	36.5
PLTM		Platinum	-1.7%	-17.2%	-3.6%	-42.8%	#11	21.2
URA		Uranium	-7.7%	-18.5%	-8.2%	-35.5%	#12	15.4
SLV	Current	Silver	-4.4%	-23.1%	-5.6%	-50.2%	#13	11.5

Signal Stack

Layer	Read	Score	Evidence
ETF Technicals	Downtrend / avoid rallies	15.4	1M -4.4%, 3M -23.1%, return z -0.65, MA dev z -0.86.
Breadth	Price proxy only	15.4	No constituent breadth file; using price trend, drawdown, and MA distance as proxy.
VAMS	Sell	25.0	Current VAMS 0.27, 5D change 0.46, since 2026-07-08.
Options	Risk control	64.3	Building Options Pressure \| High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
DeMark 9/13	Defer / avoid	6.2	Lower 9 21D: avg 2.5%, hit 60%, N 52
CFTC	Balanced	62.8	Silver: positioning pctile 31.4, inst/HF %OI 10.6, 13W change 2,414.
Rates / Credit	Risk-budget governor	68.7	2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.
Macro	Underweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime	36.0	Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.

What The Evidence Means

Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.

Layer	State	What It Means	PM Use	Evidence
ETF Technicals	Conflict	Price is either extended without support or still in repair.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Downtrend / avoid rallies; 1M -4.4%, 3M -23.1%.
Breadth	Conflict	Damage or weak constituent participation argues for smaller sizing.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.
VAMS	Conflict	The model is withholding risk even if price is bouncing.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Sell signal; VAMS 0.27, 5D change 0.46.
Options	Constructive	Current options tape has historically supported forward returns.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	Building Options Pressure \| High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
DeMark	Conflict	Exhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Lower 9 21D: avg 2.5%, hit 60%, N 52
CFTC	Constructive	Positioning is not obviously crowded and sponsorship is balanced.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	Silver: percentile 31.4, read Balanced.
Rates / Credit	Constructive	Macro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure.	Can support add/hold if other layers agree.	HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.
Macro	Conflict	Macro backdrop fights the trade and reduces risk budget.	Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.	Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.

Signal Agreement Detail

Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.

Layer	State	Score	Evidence	PM Use
ETF Technicals	Conflict	15.4	Downtrend / avoid rallies; 1M -4.4%, 3M -23.1%.	Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair.
Breadth	Conflict	15.4	No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.	Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up.
VAMS	Conflict	25.0	Sell signal; VAMS 0.27, 5D change 0.46.	Separates confirmed momentum from rallies the model does not want to own.
Options	Constructive	64.3	Building Options Pressure \| High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol	Checks whether the current options tape has historically helped or hurt forward returns.
DeMark	Conflict	6.2	Lower 9 21D: avg 2.5%, hit 60%, N 52	Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk.
CFTC	Constructive	62.8	Silver: percentile 31.4, read Balanced.	Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy.
Rates / Credit	Constructive	68.7	HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.	Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure.
Macro	Conflict	36.0	Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.	Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime.

Plain-English Signal Guide

This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.

Deck	Plain English	Current Read	How To Use
ETF Technicals	Is price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing?	Downtrend / avoid rallies	Use z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups.
Breadth	Is the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders?	No constituent breadth file	Higher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing.
VAMS	Is volatility-adjusted momentum strong enough, with volume confirmation, to own the ETF?	Sell \| VAMS 0.27	Buy means momentum is confirmed; Sell means the model is withholding risk even if price is bouncing.
Options	Does the options tape say the setup has historically been rewarded or punished?	Risk control	Use as a validation layer, not a standalone trade trigger.
DeMark	Is the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup?	Defer / avoid	Helpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts.
CFTC / Macro	Are positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade?	Balanced / macro quintile 1	Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget.

Evidence Quality

Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.

Evidence Layer	Quality	Sample / Coverage	How To Trust It
Breadth	Thin	0	Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight.
VAMS	High	5,514	Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison.
Options	High	532	Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger.
DeMark	Thin	52	Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals.
CFTC	High	968	Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal.
Macro Quintile	High	5,200	Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes.
Rates / Credit	High	1,842	Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series.

VAMS Momentum And Backtest

This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.

Current VAMS State Sell VAMS 0.27 | 5D chg 0.46 | since 2026-07-08

PriceVAMS Signal (right axis)

VAMS StrategyETF Buy/Hold

Both curves are re-indexed to 100 at the first date of the displayed VAMS backtest window (2025-02-21 through 2026-07-25), and the statistics below are calculated from that same window.

Breadth Dashboard

Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.

No constituent-level breadth file exists for this ticker. The report uses price, trend, drawdown, and relative-strength context instead of actual constituent participation charts.

ETF Return Z-Scores

Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.

30D Return Z

Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.

30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

60D Return Z

Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.

60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

90D Return Z

Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.

90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

120D Return Z

Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.

120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores

These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.

20DMA Dev Z

Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.

20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

50DMA Dev Z

Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.

50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

100DMA Dev Z

Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.

100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

200DMA Dev Z

Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.

200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Options Current Setup

Metric	Current	Read
Forward setup	64.3	Building Options Pressure \| High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
Calm tape	23.1	Building Options Pressure \| High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol
Movement risk	67.7	Raw options pressure is elevated and this symbol's own history says similar readings produced worse 60D forward returns.
Protection demand	58.1	Risk control

Options Validation Snapshot

Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.

Metric	Current	Bucket	Obs	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	3M Hit
Setup Pressure	65.5	Q4	70	5.0%	30.6%	27.3%	51%
Calm Tape	22.4	Q1 Low	64	-2.4%	-12.5%	-22.6%	7%
Movement Risk	68.6	Q4	77	2.7%	20.2%	20.2%	47%
Protection Demand	58.1	Q4	69	5.9%	26.1%	35.4%	54%
Hedge Urgency	42.8	Q2	95	2.7%	16.9%	38.3%	76%
Gamma Stability	5.5	Q1 Low	70	0.8%	3.9%	1.0%	35%
Upside Chase	45.9	Q3	90	4.3%	19.9%	36.2%	68%

Forward-Return Setup

Composite setup score from repricing pressure, fragility, hedge urgency, and complacency. The validation table shows whether similar scores were historically rewarded or punished. Current score: 65.5.

PriceForward-Return Setup

Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile

Bucket	Range	Current	Obs	Avg 1W	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	1M Hit	3M Hit	6M Hit
Q1 Low	11.5 to 30.1		107	1.0%	6.3%	19.3%	67.7%	81%	99%	100%
Q2	30.3 to 41.2		106	0.5%	2.4%	16.1%	43.7%	62%	90%	92%
Q3	41.5 to 54.3		106	1.4%	4.5%	16.2%	20.6%	69%	74%	86%
Q4	54.4 to 71.3	Current	70	0.8%	5.0%	30.6%	27.3%	58%	51%	55%
Q5 High	71.3 to 96.0		80	0.4%	-0.4%	-8.9%	-15.5%	36%	15%	3%

Calm Options Tape

Higher readings mean the options tape is calmer and less hedged. For some tickers that is constructive; for others it can mark complacency. Current score: 22.4.

PriceCalm Options Tape

Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile

Bucket	Range	Current	Obs	Avg 1W	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	1M Hit	3M Hit	6M Hit
Q1 Low	15.3 to 32.3	Current	64	-0.3%	-2.4%	-12.5%	-22.6%	30%	7%	1%
Q2	32.3 to 47.5		86	1.3%	3.5%	11.0%	11.2%	55%	58%	54%
Q3	47.6 to 56.8		106	1.2%	5.5%	22.2%	23.3%	67%	76%	86%
Q4	57.0 to 65.2		106	1.1%	4.7%	19.8%	43.8%	76%	90%	94%
Q5 High	65.3 to 83.5		107	0.9%	5.8%	21.5%	74.5%	78%	97%	100%

Movement Risk

Fragility and near-term movement risk from IV, hedging pressure, and gamma instability. Current score: 68.6.

PriceMovement Risk

Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile

Bucket	Range	Current	Obs	Avg 1W	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	1M Hit	3M Hit	6M Hit
Q1 Low	11.6 to 28.9		107	0.9%	5.9%	18.9%	67.9%	79%	99%	100%
Q2	29.0 to 42.0		106	0.7%	3.5%	16.5%	44.7%	69%	88%	96%
Q3	42.0 to 52.9		106	1.8%	5.7%	20.7%	23.8%	69%	79%	85%
Q4	53.0 to 71.6	Current	77	-0.0%	2.7%	20.2%	20.2%	53%	47%	50%
Q5 High	71.9 to 98.1		73	0.8%	-0.3%	-8.3%	-16.1%	36%	15%	4%

Protection Demand

Demand for downside protection using put/call activity, put volume intensity, and implied volatility pressure. Current score: 58.1.

PriceProtection Demand

Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile

Bucket	Range	Current	Obs	Avg 1W	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	1M Hit	3M Hit	6M Hit
Q1 Low	11.3 to 30.2		107	0.7%	4.3%	13.7%	45.3%	77%	88%	94%
Q2	30.2 to 39.6		106	0.1%	3.0%	12.5%	41.3%	64%	84%	91%
Q3	39.6 to 52.5		98	1.3%	2.5%	21.1%	40.4%	63%	76%	81%
Q4	52.7 to 72.0	Current	69	1.2%	5.9%	26.1%	35.4%	59%	54%	55%
Q5 High	72.1 to 99.7		89	0.9%	2.6%	2.7%	4.1%	42%	26%	14%

DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context

This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.

Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13

DeMark 9/13 Read

Metric	Value
Daily	Upper setup 4/9
Weekly	Upper countdown 6/13
Ratio	Lower countdown 2/13
PM action	Defer / avoid
Validation	Strong history

CFTC Positioning

Metric	Value
Proxy	Silver
Mapping	Silver futures proxy
Read	Balanced
Inst/HF %OI	10.6
3Y Percentile	31.4
13W Change	2,414

DeMark Validation Snapshot

Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.

Lens	Signal	Age	Alignment	Read	Evidence	5D	10D	21D	63D
Current daily 9/13 signal	Lower 9	84 calendar days ago	Weak / Defer	Strong history	Lower 9 21D: avg 2.5%, hit 60%, N 52	1.2% / 65% / N 52	1.4% / 56% / N 52	2.5% / 60% / N 52	2.3% / 51% / N 51
Daily / weekly / relative alignment	Lower 9	84 calendar days ago	Daily Only	Strong multipanel	Daily + Ratio 21D: median 4.3%, avg 5.2%, hit 81%, N 21	med 1.3% / hit 71% / N 21	med 1.8% / hit 67% / N 21	med 4.3% / hit 81% / N 21	med 4.9% / hit 67% / N 21

SLV price proxyInst/HF %OI

Rates / Credit

Metric	Latest	1M Chg	3Y Pctile
2Y Treasury	4.37	0.21	68.9
10Y Treasury	4.71	0.21	97.4
2s10s	0.36	0.06	57.5
HY OAS	2.77	0.01	17.3
IG OAS	0.79	0.04	20.3
MOVE	70.88	1.82	14.4
VIX	18.58	-0.05	73.3

Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity

Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.

USD

Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.

SLV priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.8%	1.0%	66%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.74	-0.47	29%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-4.15	-3.83	16%	High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Oil

Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.

SLV priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	31.5%	-4.7%	100%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	0.78	0.39	89%	Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	0.19	0.29	52%	Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

10Y Yield

Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.

SLV price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.21 pts	0.07 pts	82%	High pressure versus this driver's own history.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	0.20	-0.25	71%	Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	10.74	-17.82	75%	Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

HY Spreads

Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.

SLV priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	0.01 pts	-0.08 pts	62%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.57	-0.47	31%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-44.26	-42.00	9%	High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

MOVE

Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.

SLV priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	1.8 pts	-3.5 pts	61%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	0.01	-0.32	57%	Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	0.01	-0.15	57%	Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

VIX

Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.

SLV priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

Metric	Current	3M Avg	Current Pctile	PM Read	Why It Matters
21D Driver Move	-0.0 pts	-1.6 pts	54%	Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.	Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr	-0.59	-0.54	21%	Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver.	Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta	-1.73	-1.79	9%	High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.	How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?

This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.

Test	Quintile	Obs	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	3M Hit	Avg 6M Max DD	Verdict	PM Read
Current macro quintile	1	1037	-0.3%	1.7%	2.0%	49%	-10.9%	Context only	Weak standalone macro edge; rely more on price, breadth, VAMS, options, and positioning.
All macro states baseline	All	5200	0.6%	1.9%	3.8%	50%	-10.1%	Baseline	Baseline for judging whether the current regime matters.
Best 3M macro quintile	5	1048	1.3%	4.1%	7.8%	55%	-9.5%	Reference	Best historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Worst 3M macro quintile	3	1051	0.3%	-0.6%	0.9%	43%	-11.2%	Reference	Worst historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Current edge vs baseline	1		-0.9%	-0.2%	-1.8%	-1%	-0.8%	Edge test	Positive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged.

Quintile Detail

Quintile	Current	Obs	Avg 1M	Avg 3M	Avg 6M	3M Hit	Avg 6M Max DD	PM Read
1	Current	1037	-0.3%	1.7%	2.0%	49%	-10.9%	Current macro quintile
2		1028	0.7%	2.2%	3.0%	51%	-9.3%	Comparison bucket
3		1051	0.3%	-0.6%	0.9%	43%	-11.2%	Comparison bucket
4		1036	1.2%	2.1%	5.3%	51%	-9.8%	Comparison bucket
5		1048	1.3%	4.1%	7.8%	55%	-9.5%	Comparison bucket