APEX MACRO RESEARCH | TICKER INTELLIGENCE
Generated 2026-07-25 19:07

ETF Research Note

SPHD - High Dividend Low Vol

Factors / Risk Appetite context across the current Apex Macro deck stack: breadth, ETF technicals, VAMS, Options Intelligence, DeMark 9/13, CFTC positioning, rates/credit, Macro Lens, and allocation context.

Group: Factors / Risk Appetite Action: Peer leader / overweight on pullbacks Composite: 66.5 / 100 Macro quintile: 1

PM Read

Peer leader / overweight on pullbacks

price/trend score 74.5; DeMark rank 73.9; holdings look-through 81.7; macro setup 36.0; peer leader #1 with group score 95.0

Main Risk

No major current conflict across available inputs.

How To Use

Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.

Price52.78
1W0.7%
1M1.7%
3M5.5%
6M10.7%
1Y13.8%

Analyst Conclusion

This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.

Analyst VerdictSetup QualityBest SupportMain FrictionFresh TapeMacro UseUpgrade TriggerDowngrade Trigger
Peer leader / overweight on pullbacksUsable but selectiveETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / CreditDeMark, MacroImproving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rankContext onlyVAMS turns Buy or signal strength improves; options tape moves into a validated supportive setupfresh 5D deterioration persists: Macro setup score; VAMS flips Sell or weakens materially; breadth rolls over or damage breadth rises

One-Minute PM Summary

The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.

DecisionConfidenceAgreementBest EvidenceMain ConflictWhat Changed Since Last Week
Peer leader / overweight on pullbacksMedium4 constructive / 2 conflictETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / CreditDeMark, MacroPrice: Improved (0.7%); Relative strength vs SPY: Improved (1.2%); DeMark technical rank: Improved (+20.4 pts)

PM Action Framework

This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.

LensCurrent ReadEvidencePM Use
Cross-deck agreement66.7 / 100 | Medium confidence4 constructive, 0 neutral, 2 conflict across 6 layers.Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it.
Position constructionAdd / overweight candidateprice/trend score 74.5; DeMark rank 73.9; holdings look-through 81.7; macro setup 36.0; peer leader #1 with group score 95.0Translates the signal stack into sizing language.
What changed since last weekPrice improved (0.7%); Relative strength vs SPY improved (1.2%); DeMark technical rank improved (+20.4 pts); Macro setup score deteriorated (-5.7 pts)Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels.
ConfirmationETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / CreditVAMS n/a; technical state Confirmed leadership.Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart.
InvalidationDeMark, MacroNo major current conflict across available inputs.If these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair.

Ticker Playbook

Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.

ActionRuleCurrent StatusEvidence To Watch
Add / increaseAgreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto.Selective add / pullback addETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, Rates / Credit
Hold / monitorAgreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup.AppropriateTrend state: Confirmed leadership; VAMS: n/a.
Trim / reduceMultiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning.Active riskDeMark, Macro
Avoid / waitAgreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation.Not primaryNo major current conflict across available inputs.
Recheck next weekUse the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels.Deteriorating: Macro setup scoreImproving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, DeMark technical rank

What Changed Since Last Week

Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.

SignalNow5D AgoChangeRead
Price52.7852.390.7%Improved
Relative strength vs SPY0.0710.0711.2%Improved
DeMark technical rank73.953.5+20.4 ptsImproved
Macro setup score36.041.8-5.7 ptsDeteriorated

Price Trend And Relative Strength

Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.

SPHD Price Trend 39.547.555.4 14D RSI 305070 2025-02-18 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI
Relative Strength Vs S&P 500 0.10.10.1 14D RSI 305070 2025-02-18 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candle50DMA SPHD/SPY ratio200DMA SPHD/SPY ratio14D RSI

Deck Cards

Breadth Proxy

No constituent file; using price-only trend and drawdown proxies.

Proxy score74.5
Price vs 50DMA3.0%
Price vs 200DMA6.2%
1Y drawdown-0.3%

ETF Holdings

Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.

Holdings48
Top 5 / 10 weight16.4% / 29.8%
Confirmation81.7

ETF Technicals

Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.

StateConfirmed leadership
Return Z0.38
MA Dev Z0.96

DeMark 9/13

Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.

ActionTrim / tighten risk
SignalUpper 9
Rank73.9

CFTC Positioning

Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.

ProxyNo direct proxy

Rates / Credit

Macro risk-budget governor.

2s10s0.36
HY OAS2.77
MOVE70.88

Macro

Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.

PM stanceUnderweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime
Risk appetite34.2
Macro quintile1

Allocation

Model sleeve and current expression.

SleeveOwn Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market
RationaleNeutral: factor breadth is constructive, but the model still wants quality/momentum confirmation before treating high beta as durable.
ViewNeutral

ETF Look-Through: Holdings And Concentration

Holdings are the latest Alpha Vantage point-in-time ETF_PROFILE snapshot. Contribution estimates use current weights multiplied by recent holding returns; they are not historical attribution.

Holdings Snapshot

Holdings returned48
Top 3 / 5 / 1010.3% / 16.4% / 29.8%
AUM$3.3B
Expense / turnover0.30% / 49.0%
Snapshot refreshed2026-07-25T18:43:46

Look-Through Verdict

Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 90% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 16.4%.

Confirmation score81.7 / 100
Top 10 above 50DMA90%
Top 10 positive 1M / 3M100% / 80%
Top 10 1M / 3M contribution1.37% / 3.33%
SPHD: Top 10 Holding Weights Value DOC3.65%MO3.47%KHC3.19%VZ3.10%BEN3.03%OKE2.86%PFE2.82%AMCR2.68%KIM2.54%O2.49%
SPHD: Current-Weight 1M Contribution Value DOC0.25%MO0.04%KHC0.38%VZ0.05%BEN0.00%OKE0.19%PFE0.06%AMCR0.18%KIM0.07%O0.15%

Top 10 Holdings Table

60D Return Z is each holding's 60-day return measured against that stock's own recent return history.

HoldingNameWeight1W1M3MAbove 50DMA60D Return Z1M Contribution3M Contribution
DOCHEALTHPEAK PROPERTIES INC3.65%-1.1%7.0%35.7%Yes3.040.25%1.30%
MOALTRIA GROUP INC3.47%-1.6%1.3%8.7%Yes0.250.04%0.30%
KHCTHE KRAFT HEINZ CO3.19%-0.8%11.9%16.8%Yes2.570.38%0.54%
VZVERIZON COMMUNICATIONS INC3.10%6.4%1.5%-1.8%Yes-0.350.05%-0.06%
BENFRANKLIN RESOURCES INC3.03%-0.4%0.1%21.1%Yes0.030.00%0.64%
OKEONEOK INC2.86%-0.4%6.7%6.8%Yes0.090.19%0.20%
PFEPFIZER INC2.82%-2.0%2.1%-8.0%No-1.410.06%-0.23%
AMCRAMCOR PLC ORDINARY SHARES2.68%1.4%6.8%12.4%Yes-0.440.18%0.33%
KIMKIMCO REALTY CORP2.54%-0.1%2.7%9.5%Yes0.750.07%0.24%
OREALTY INCOME CORP2.49%-0.2%5.8%2.4%Yes0.130.15%0.06%

Sector Exposure

No sector allocation was returned with this ETF profile.

Top Holding Price Checks

DOC: Top Holding Now 22.27 14.719.223.8 2025-12-03 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
MO: Top Holding Now 72.99 51.865.078.2 2025-12-03 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
KHC: Top Holding Now 25.67 20.124.228.3 2025-12-03 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
VZ: Top Holding Now 46.38 36.945.253.5 2025-12-03 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
BEN: Top Holding Now 32.49 20.528.636.7 2025-12-03 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price

Peer / Group Rank

Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.

TickerCurrentName1M3M50DMA Dist1Y DDComposite RankScore
SPHDCurrentHigh Dividend Low Vol1.7%5.5%3.0%-0.3%#1
95.0
SPLVLow Vol0.8%4.6%2.9%0.0%#2
85.0
QUALQuality-0.7%1.3%0.1%-1.7%#3
60.0
MTUMMomentum-3.2%1.0%-4.4%-11.2%#4
35.0
SPHBHigh Beta-4.5%-0.5%-4.7%-10.0%#5
25.0

Signal Stack

LayerReadScoreEvidence
ETF TechnicalsConfirmed leadership
74.5
1M 1.7%, 3M 5.5%, return z 0.38, MA dev z 0.96.
BreadthPrice proxy only
74.5
No constituent breadth file; using price trend, drawdown, and MA distance as proxy.
ETF HoldingsTop-holding confirmation
81.7
Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 90% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 16.4%.
DeMark 9/13Trim / tighten risk
73.9
Upper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 42%, N 73
CFTCn/an/aNo direct proxy: positioning pctile n/a, inst/HF %OI n/a, 13W change n/a.
Rates / CreditRisk-budget governor
68.7
2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.
MacroUnderweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime
36.0
Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.

What The Evidence Means

Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.

LayerStateWhat It MeansPM UseEvidence
ETF TechnicalsConstructivePrice trend and relative performance are investable.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.Confirmed leadership; 1M 1.7%, 3M 5.5%.
BreadthConstructiveParticipation under the ETF is broad enough to support sizing.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.
ETF HoldingsConstructiveThe ETF's largest current holdings are confirming the ETF-level tape.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 90% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 16.4%.
DeMarkConflictExhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing.Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.Upper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 42%, N 73
CFTCUnavailableUse as supporting context.Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision.No direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a.
Rates / CreditConstructiveMacro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure.Can support add/hold if other layers agree.HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.
MacroConflictMacro backdrop fights the trade and reduces risk budget.Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check.Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.

Signal Agreement Detail

Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.

LayerStateScoreEvidencePM Use
ETF TechnicalsConstructive
74.5
Confirmed leadership; 1M 1.7%, 3M 5.5%.Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair.
BreadthConstructive
74.5
No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used.Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up.
ETF HoldingsConstructive
81.7
Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 90% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 16.4%.Checks whether the ETF's largest current holdings are confirming or masking the ETF-level signal.
DeMarkConflict
73.9
Upper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 42%, N 73Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk.
CFTCUnavailablen/aNo direct proxy: percentile n/a, read n/a.Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy.
Rates / CreditConstructive
68.7
HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58.Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure.
MacroConflict
36.0
Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3.Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime.

Plain-English Signal Guide

This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.

DeckPlain EnglishCurrent ReadHow To Use
ETF TechnicalsIs price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing?Confirmed leadershipUse z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups.
BreadthIs the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders?No constituent breadth fileHigher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing.
ETF HoldingsAre the ETF's largest current holdings confirming or masking the ETF-level signal?Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 90% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 16.4%.Use current-weight contribution and concentration as a look-through check, not as historical attribution.
DeMarkIs the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup?Trim / tighten riskHelpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts.
CFTC / MacroAre positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade?macro quintile 1Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget.

Evidence Quality

Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.

Evidence LayerQualitySample / CoverageHow To Trust It
BreadthThin0Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight.
VAMSThin0Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison.
OptionsThin0Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger.
DeMarkThin73Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals.
CFTCThin0Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal.
Macro QuintileHigh4,677Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes.
Rates / CreditHigh1,608Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series.

VAMS Momentum And Backtest

This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.

No VAMS history exists for this ticker.

Breadth Dashboard

Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.

No constituent-level breadth file exists for this ticker. The report uses price, trend, drawdown, and relative-strength context instead of actual constituent participation charts.

ETF Return Z-Scores

Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.

30D Return Z

Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.

SPHD: 30D Return Z Current: 0.85 -4.2-0.53.2 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

60D Return Z

Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.

SPHD: 60D Return Z Current: 0.95 -2.50.02.6 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

90D Return Z

Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.

SPHD: 90D Return Z Current: 1.10 -2.50.02.5 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

120D Return Z

Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.

SPHD: 120D Return Z Current: 1.03 -2.50.02.5 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores

These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.

20DMA Dev Z

Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.

SPHD: 20DMA Dev Z Current: 0.65 -6.3-1.53.2 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

50DMA Dev Z

Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.

SPHD: 50DMA Dev Z Current: 0.96 -4.8-0.73.4 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

100DMA Dev Z

Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.

SPHD: 100DMA Dev Z Current: 1.17 -3.4-0.23.0 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

200DMA Dev Z

Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.

SPHD: 200DMA Dev Z Current: 0.78 -3.0-0.22.7 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out

Options Current Setup

No current Options Intelligence row available.

Options Validation Snapshot

Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.

No validation rows available.

No Options Intelligence history exists for this ticker.

DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context

This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.

SPHD: DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context Last trigger: Upper 9 38 calendar days ago 45.450.254.9 999139 2025-12-17 2026-07-24
Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13

DeMark 9/13 Read

MetricValue
DailyUpper countdown 11/13
WeeklyUpper countdown 9/13
RatioUpper setup 1/9
PM actionTrim / tighten risk
ValidationPoor history

CFTC Positioning

MetricValue
ProxyNo direct proxy
MappingNo futures-positioning proxy mapped

DeMark Validation Snapshot

Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.

LensSignalAgeAlignmentReadEvidence5D10D21D63D
Current daily 9/13 signalUpper 938 calendar days agoExtended / Exhaustion RiskPoor historyUpper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 42%, N 73-0.0% / 48% / N 730.3% / 40% / N 730.5% / 42% / N 731.8% / 39% / N 72
Daily / weekly / relative alignmentUpper 938 calendar days agoDaily OnlyStrong multipanelDaily + Weekly 21D: median -0.4%, avg -0.8%, hit 64%, N 11med -0.6% / hit 82% / N 11med -0.4% / hit 55% / N 11med -0.4% / hit 64% / N 11med 1.7% / hit 45% / N 11

No CFTC proxy chart available.

Rates / Credit

MetricLatest1M Chg3Y Pctile
2Y Treasury4.370.2168.9
10Y Treasury4.710.2197.4
2s10s0.360.0657.5
HY OAS2.770.0117.3
IG OAS0.790.0420.3
MOVE70.881.8214.4
VIX18.58-0.0573.3

Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity

Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.

USD

Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.

SPHD Macro Sensitivity: USD 38.946.754.5SPHD priceNow 52.8-6.3-0.84.8USD 21D return %Now 0.8-1.09-0.080.92Rolling 30D correlationNow -0.25-4.21-0.583.05Rolling 30D betaNow -0.36 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
SPHD priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move0.8%1.0%66%Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr-0.25-0.1752%Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta-0.36-0.4054%Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Oil

Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.

SPHD Macro Sensitivity: Oil 38.946.754.5SPHD priceNow 52.8-33.814.061.9Oil 21D return %Now 31.5-1.17-0.021.13Rolling 30D correlationNow -0.15-1.51-0.161.19Rolling 30D betaNow -0.01 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
SPHD priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move31.5%-4.7%100%High pressure versus this driver's own history.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr-0.15-0.3430%Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta-0.01-0.0636%Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

10Y Yield

Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.

SPHD Macro Sensitivity: 10Y Yield 38.946.754.5SPHD priceNow 52.8-0.70.00.710Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsNow 0.2-1.12-0.220.69Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.51-29.84-5.3019.23Rolling 30D betaNow 8.11 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
SPHD price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move0.21 pts0.07 pts82%High pressure versus this driver's own history.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.51-0.2978%Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta8.11-4.9376%Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

HY Spreads

Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.

SPHD Macro Sensitivity: HY Spreads 38.946.754.5SPHD priceNow 52.8-1.60.22.0HY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsNow 0.0-1.16-0.041.08Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.51-34.93-7.7719.39Rolling 30D betaNow 14.11 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
SPHD priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move0.01 pts-0.08 pts62%Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.51-0.1395%Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta14.110.75100%High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

MOVE

Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.

SPHD Macro Sensitivity: MOVE 38.946.754.5SPHD priceNow 52.8-58.53.064.5MOVE 21D change, index ptsNow 1.8-1.11-0.210.69Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.46-0.46-0.090.27Rolling 30D betaNow 0.13 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
SPHD priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move1.8 pts-3.5 pts61%Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.46-0.2493%Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta0.13-0.0293%Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

VIX

Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.

SPHD Macro Sensitivity: VIX 38.946.754.5SPHD priceNow 52.8-36.6-1.932.8VIX 21D change, index ptsNow -0.0-1.18-0.081.01Rolling 30D correlationNow 0.02-1.41-0.011.39Rolling 30D betaNow 0.02 2024-06-06 2026-07-25
SPHD priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta

Current Diagnostic

MetricCurrent3M AvgCurrent PctilePM ReadWhy It Matters
21D Driver Move-0.0 pts-1.6 pts54%Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows.Macro pressure impulse
Rolling 30D Corr0.02-0.2289%Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver.Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver
Rolling 30D Beta0.02-0.0789%Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer.How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move

Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?

This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.

TestQuintileObsAvg 1MAvg 3MAvg 6M3M HitAvg 6M Max DDVerdictPM Read
Current macro quintile19320.7%2.5%4.6%66%-5.3%Context onlyWeak standalone macro edge; rely more on price, breadth, VAMS, options, and positioning.
All macro states baselineAll46770.6%1.9%3.6%66%-4.9%BaselineBaseline for judging whether the current regime matters.
Best 3M macro quintile29231.2%2.6%4.2%69%-3.6%ReferenceBest historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Worst 3M macro quintile59440.2%1.0%2.6%63%-6.4%ReferenceWorst historical macro quintile for this ticker.
Current edge vs baseline10.1%0.6%1.1%-1%-0.4%Edge testPositive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged.

Quintile Detail

QuintileCurrentObsAvg 1MAvg 3MAvg 6M3M HitAvg 6M Max DDPM Read
1Current9320.7%2.5%4.6%66%-5.3%Current macro quintile
29231.2%2.6%4.2%69%-3.6%Comparison bucket
39470.6%1.7%3.7%67%-4.3%Comparison bucket
49310.5%1.5%2.7%67%-4.7%Comparison bucket
59440.2%1.0%2.6%63%-6.4%Comparison bucket