PM Read
Underweight / avoid rallies
price/trend score 25.4; DeMark rank 7.5; holdings look-through 63.6; macro setup 54.5
ETF Research Note
UFO - Space
Thematic / Speculative Growth context across the current Apex Macro deck stack: breadth, ETF technicals, VAMS, Options Intelligence, DeMark 9/13, CFTC positioning, rates/credit, Macro Lens, and allocation context.
Group: Thematic / Speculative Growth
Action: Underweight / avoid rallies
Composite: 37.7 / 100
Macro quintile: 3
Main Risk
still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; DeMark validation is not confirming
How To Use
Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.
Price43.55
1W0.8%
1M-0.3%
3M1.4%
6M-29.6%
1Y-7.9%
Analyst Conclusion
This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.
| Analyst Verdict | Setup Quality | Best Support | Main Friction | Fresh Tape | Macro Use | Upgrade Trigger | Downgrade Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underweight / avoid rallies | Evidence conflict; reduce sizing | ETF Holdings, CFTC, Rates / Credit | ETF Technicals, Breadth, DeMark | Improving: Price, DeMark technical rank, Macro setup score | Context only | VAMS turns Buy or signal strength improves; constituent breadth expands and damage falls; options tape moves into a validated supportive setup | fresh 5D deterioration persists: Relative strength vs SPY; VAMS flips Sell or weakens materially; rates/credit risk budget tightens further |
One-Minute PM Summary
The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.
| Decision | Confidence | Agreement | Best Evidence | Main Conflict | What Changed Since Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Underweight / avoid rallies | Medium | 3 constructive / 3 conflict | ETF Holdings, CFTC, Rates / Credit | ETF Technicals, Breadth, DeMark | Price: Improved (0.8%); Relative strength vs SPY: Deteriorated (-0.5%); DeMark technical rank: Improved (+4.4 pts) |
PM Action Framework
This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.
| Lens | Current Read | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-deck agreement | 50.0 / 100 | Medium confidence | 3 constructive, 1 neutral, 3 conflict across 7 layers. | Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it. |
| Position construction | Avoid / keep on watchlist | price/trend score 25.4; DeMark rank 7.5; holdings look-through 63.6; macro setup 54.5 | Translates the signal stack into sizing language. |
| What changed since last week | Price improved (0.8%); Relative strength vs SPY deteriorated (-0.5%); DeMark technical rank improved (+4.4 pts); Macro setup score improved (+8.9 pts) | Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available. | Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels. |
| Confirmation | ETF Holdings, CFTC, Rates / Credit | VAMS n/a; technical state Balanced. | Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart. |
| Invalidation | ETF Technicals, Breadth, DeMark | still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; DeMark validation is not confirming | If these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair. |
Ticker Playbook
Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.
| Action | Rule | Current Status | Evidence To Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add / increase | Agreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto. | Not yet | ETF Holdings, CFTC, Rates / Credit |
| Hold / monitor | Agreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup. | Appropriate | Trend state: Balanced; VAMS: n/a. |
| Trim / reduce | Multiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning. | Active risk | ETF Technicals, Breadth, DeMark |
| Avoid / wait | Agreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation. | Not primary | still more than 10% below trailing 1Y high; DeMark validation is not confirming |
| Recheck next week | Use the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels. | Deteriorating: Relative strength vs SPY | Improving: Price, DeMark technical rank, Macro setup score |
What Changed Since Last Week
Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.
| Signal | Now | 5D Ago | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 43.55 | 43.21 | 0.8% | Improved |
| Relative strength vs SPY | 0.056 | 0.057 | -0.5% | Deteriorated |
| DeMark technical rank | 7.5 | 3.1 | +4.4 pts | Improved |
| Macro setup score | 54.5 | 45.7 | +8.9 pts | Improved |
Price Trend And Relative Strength
Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI
Up candleDown candle50DMA UFO/SPY ratio200DMA UFO/SPY ratio14D RSI
Deck Cards
Breadth Proxy
No constituent file; using price-only trend and drawdown proxies.
Proxy score25.4
Price vs 50DMA-3.1%
Price vs 200DMA-11.4%
1Y drawdown-35.7%
ETF Holdings
Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.
Holdings40
Top 5 / 10 weight30.1% / 49.9%
Confirmation63.6
ETF Technicals
Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.
StateBalanced
Return Z-0.35
MA Dev Z-0.80
DeMark 9/13
Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.
ActionDefer / avoid
SignalLower 9
Rank7.5
CFTC Positioning
Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.
ProxyNasdaq 100
ReadBalanced
3Y pctile48.7
Rates / Credit
Macro risk-budget governor.
2s10s0.36
HY OAS2.80
MOVE96.00
Macro
Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.
Risk appetite59.7
Macro quintile3
Allocation
Model sleeve and current expression.
SleeveThematic / Speculative Growth
Weight2.4%
WhySelected by best in sleeve: rank 1 of max 20; sleeve rank 1. The Thematic / Speculative Growth sleeve has 1 selected holding(s), so this name receives 100.00% of that sleeve's model allocation.
RationaleNeutral: speculative themes are improving tactically, but sizing stays controlled because this sleeve needs clean VAMS and lower damage.
ETF Look-Through: Holdings And Concentration
Holdings are the latest Alpha Vantage point-in-time ETF_PROFILE snapshot. Contribution estimates use current weights multiplied by recent holding returns; they are not historical attribution.
Holdings Snapshot
Holdings returned40
Top 3 / 5 / 1019.2% / 30.1% / 49.9%
AUM$557.2M
Expense / turnover0.75% / 51.0%
Snapshot refreshed2026-09-25T19:16:31
Look-Through Verdict
Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 70% above 50DMA, 80% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 30.1%.
Confirmation score63.6 / 100
Top 10 above 50DMA70%
Top 10 positive 1M / 3M80% / 50%
Top 10 1M / 3M contribution0.84% / 2.25%
Top 10 Holdings Table
60D Return Z is each holding's 60-day return measured against that stock's own recent return history.
| Holding | Name | Weight | 1W | 1M | 3M | Above 50DMA | 60D Return Z | 1M Contribution | 3M Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| TRMB | TRIMBLE INC | 6.51% | 0.5% | -3.1% | 14.1% | Yes | 1.57 | -0.20% | 0.92% |
| GRMN | GARMIN LTD | 6.47% | 7.3% | 1.8% | 26.5% | Yes | 1.12 | 0.11% | 1.71% |
| VSAT | VIASAT INC | 6.19% | -4.4% | 2.1% | 17.9% | No | -1.45 | 0.13% | 1.11% |
| SIRI | SIRIUS XM HOLDINGS INC | 5.58% | -5.3% | -9.3% | -8.8% | No | -1.46 | -0.52% | -0.49% |
| SPCX | SPCX | 5.33% | -2.6% | 6.5% | -3.0% | Yes | n/a | 0.35% | -0.16% |
| ECHO | ECHOSTAR CORP CLASS A | 4.57% | -3.6% | 5.3% | -7.4% | Yes | -0.74 | 0.24% | -0.34% |
| ASTS | ASTS | 4.48% | 5.6% | 3.2% | -13.5% | No | -1.18 | 0.14% | -0.60% |
| IRDM | IRIDIUM COMMUNICATIONS INC | 3.64% | 4.2% | 3.3% | 12.0% | Yes | -0.84 | 0.12% | 0.44% |
| RKLB | ROCKET LAB CORP | 3.59% | 14.5% | 11.7% | -12.5% | Yes | -1.18 | 0.42% | -0.45% |
| GSAT | GLOBALSTAR INC | 3.56% | 0.0% | 1.3% | 3.3% | Yes | -0.83 | 0.05% | 0.12% |
Sector Exposure
| Sector | Weight |
|---|---|
| INDUSTRIALS | 33.3% |
| COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 28.3% |
| INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY | 13.6% |
| FINANCIALS | 6.5% |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | 0.0% |
| HEALTHCARE | 0.0% |
| CONSUMER STAPLES | 0.0% |
| MATERIALS | 0.0% |
Top Holding Price Checks
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Peer / Group Rank
Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.
| Ticker | Current | Name | 1M | 3M | 50DMA Dist | 1Y DD | Composite Rank | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| ARKK | Speculative Tech | 5.3% | 26.3% | 7.1% | -1.0% | #1 | ||
| PINK | Health Innovators | -1.9% | 0.9% | -1.3% | -3.6% | #2 | ||
| UFO | Current | Space | -0.3% | 1.4% | -3.1% | -35.7% | #3 | |
| PEJ | Leisure | -3.8% | -4.1% | -4.8% | -9.7% | #4 |
Signal Stack
| Layer | Read | Score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Balanced | 1M -0.3%, 3M 1.4%, return z -0.35, MA dev z -0.80. | |
| Breadth | Price proxy only | No constituent breadth file; using price trend, drawdown, and MA distance as proxy. | |
| ETF Holdings | Top-holding confirmation | Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 70% above 50DMA, 80% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 30.1%. | |
| DeMark 9/13 | Defer / avoid | Lower 9 21D: avg 1.7%, hit 57%, N 21 | |
| CFTC | Balanced | Nasdaq 100: positioning pctile 48.7, inst/HF %OI 14.5, 13W change 29,691. | |
| Rates / Credit | Risk-budget governor | 2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87. | |
| Macro | n/a | Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7. |
What The Evidence Means
Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.
| Layer | State | What It Means | PM Use | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Conflict | Price is either extended without support or still in repair. | Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check. | Balanced; 1M -0.3%, 3M 1.4%. |
| Breadth | Conflict | Damage or weak constituent participation argues for smaller sizing. | Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check. | No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used. |
| ETF Holdings | Constructive | The ETF's largest current holdings are confirming the ETF-level tape. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 70% above 50DMA, 80% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 30.1%. |
| DeMark | Conflict | Exhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing. | Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check. | Lower 9 21D: avg 1.7%, hit 57%, N 21 |
| CFTC | Constructive | Positioning is not obviously crowded and sponsorship is balanced. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | Nasdaq 100: percentile 48.7, read Balanced. |
| Rates / Credit | Constructive | Macro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87. |
| Macro | Neutral | Macro is a context layer, not a primary driver here. | Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision. | Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7. |
Signal Agreement Detail
Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.
| Layer | State | Score | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Conflict | Balanced; 1M -0.3%, 3M 1.4%. | Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair. | |
| Breadth | Conflict | No constituent breadth file; price-only trend/drawdown proxy is used. | Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up. | |
| ETF Holdings | Constructive | Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 70% above 50DMA, 80% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 30.1%. | Checks whether the ETF's largest current holdings are confirming or masking the ETF-level signal. | |
| DeMark | Conflict | Lower 9 21D: avg 1.7%, hit 57%, N 21 | Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk. | |
| CFTC | Constructive | Nasdaq 100: percentile 48.7, read Balanced. | Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy. | |
| Rates / Credit | Constructive | HY OAS 2.80, MOVE 96.00, VIX 14.87. | Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure. | |
| Macro | Neutral | Risk appetite 59.7, FCI 38.8, drawdown risk 31.7. | Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime. |
Plain-English Signal Guide
This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.
| Deck | Plain English | Current Read | How To Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Is price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing? | Balanced | Use z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups. |
| Breadth | Is the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders? | No constituent breadth file | Higher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing. |
| ETF Holdings | Are the ETF's largest current holdings confirming or masking the ETF-level signal? | Top 10 holdings: look-through is mixed and should not dominate sizing; 70% above 50DMA, 80% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 30.1%. | Use current-weight contribution and concentration as a look-through check, not as historical attribution. |
| DeMark | Is the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup? | Defer / avoid | Helpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts. |
| CFTC / Macro | Are positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade? | Balanced / macro quintile 3 | Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget. |
Evidence Quality
Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.
| Evidence Layer | Quality | Sample / Coverage | How To Trust It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breadth | Thin | 0 | Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight. |
| VAMS | Thin | 0 | Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison. |
| Options | Thin | 0 | Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger. |
| DeMark | Thin | 22 | Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals. |
| CFTC | High | 1,059 | Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal. |
| Macro Quintile | High | 2,599 | Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes. |
| Rates / Credit | High | 890 | Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series. |
VAMS Momentum And Backtest
This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.
No VAMS history exists for this ticker.
Breadth Dashboard
Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.
No constituent-level breadth file exists for this ticker. The report uses price, trend, drawdown, and relative-strength context instead of actual constituent participation charts.
ETF Return Z-Scores
Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.
30D Return Z
Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.
30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
60D Return Z
Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.
60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
90D Return Z
Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.
90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
120D Return Z
Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.
120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores
These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.
20DMA Dev Z
Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.
20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
50DMA Dev Z
Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.
50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
100DMA Dev Z
Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.
100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
200DMA Dev Z
Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.
200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
Options Current Setup
No current Options Intelligence row available.
Options Validation Snapshot
Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.
No validation rows available.
No Options Intelligence history exists for this ticker.
DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context
This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.
Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13
DeMark 9/13 Read
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Daily | Lower countdown 9/13 |
| Weekly | Upper countdown 3/13 |
| Ratio | Lower countdown 9/13 |
| PM action | Defer / avoid |
| Validation | Mixed history |
CFTC Positioning
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Proxy | Nasdaq 100 |
| Mapping | Technology/growth proxy |
| Read | Balanced |
| Inst/HF %OI | 14.5 |
| 3Y Percentile | 48.7 |
| 13W Change | 29,691 |
DeMark Validation Snapshot
Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.
| Lens | Signal | Age | Alignment | Read | Evidence | 5D | 10D | 21D | 63D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current daily 9/13 signal | Lower 9 | 28 calendar days ago | Weak / Defer | Mixed history | Lower 9 21D: avg 1.7%, hit 57%, N 21 | -0.6% / 36% / N 22 | -0.7% / 50% / N 22 | 1.7% / 57% / N 21 | 2.1% / 50% / N 20 |
| Daily / weekly / relative alignment | Lower 9 | 28 calendar days ago | Daily Only | Mixed multipanel | Daily + Ratio 21D: median 0.1%, avg 1.4%, hit 50%, N 8 | med -0.6% / hit 44% / N 9 | med 0.3% / hit 56% / N 9 | med 0.1% / hit 50% / N 8 | med -2.5% / hit 29% / N 7 |
QQQ price proxyInst/HF %OI
Rates / Credit
| Metric | Latest | 1M Chg | 3Y Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y Treasury | 4.87 | 0.70 | 91.0 |
| 10Y Treasury | 5.18 | 0.54 | 100.0 |
| 2s10s | 0.36 | -0.11 | 53.4 |
| HY OAS | 2.80 | 0.13 | 26.0 |
| IG OAS | 0.79 | -0.01 | 22.4 |
| MOVE | 96.00 | 26.14 | 57.1 |
| VIX | 14.87 | 0.36 | 27.1 |
Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity
Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.
USD
Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.
UFO priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 1.9% | -0.1% | 86% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | 0.74 | -0.56 | 97% | Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | 4.13 | -6.75 | 96% | High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
Oil
Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.
UFO priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 4.5% | 9.1% | 70% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.00 | -0.68 | 31% | Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -0.00 | -0.57 | 31% | Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
10Y Yield
Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.
UFO price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.54 pts | 0.14 pts | 98% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.53 | 0.04 | 25% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -27.39 | 8.08 | 11% | Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
HY Spreads
Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.
UFO priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.13 pts | -0.02 pts | 80% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.13 | -0.29 | 85% | Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -9.87 | -42.03 | 71% | Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
MOVE
Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.
UFO priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 26.1 pts | 3.4 pts | 95% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.31 | -0.03 | 58% | Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -0.20 | 0.02 | 42% | Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
VIX
Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.
UFO priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.4 pts | -0.8 pts | 59% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.82 | -0.48 | 27% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -2.53 | -2.27 | 4% | High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?
This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.
| Test | Quintile | Obs | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 3M Hit | Avg 6M Max DD | Verdict | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current macro quintile | 3 | 519 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 8.4% | 56% | -9.0% | Context only | Weak standalone macro edge; rely more on price, breadth, VAMS, options, and positioning. |
| All macro states baseline | All | 2599 | 0.8% | 2.5% | 5.2% | 57% | -10.4% | Baseline | Baseline for judging whether the current regime matters. |
| Best 3M macro quintile | 1 | 530 | 1.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 61% | -10.7% | Reference | Best historical macro quintile for this ticker. |
| Worst 3M macro quintile | 2 | 501 | -0.4% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 51% | -10.7% | Reference | Worst historical macro quintile for this ticker. |
| Current edge vs baseline | 3 | -0.1% | -0.8% | 3.2% | -1% | 1.4% | Edge test | Positive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged. |
Quintile Detail
| Quintile | Current | Obs | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 3M Hit | Avg 6M Max DD | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | 530 | 1.6% | 5.1% | 5.7% | 61% | -10.7% | Comparison bucket | |
| 2 | 501 | -0.4% | 1.1% | 4.1% | 51% | -10.7% | Comparison bucket | |
| 3 | Current | 519 | 0.7% | 1.6% | 8.4% | 56% | -9.0% | Current macro quintile |
| 4 | 521 | 1.1% | 2.5% | 6.7% | 57% | -9.5% | Comparison bucket | |
| 5 | 528 | 1.0% | 1.8% | 1.2% | 59% | -11.9% | Comparison bucket |