PM Read
Overweight / add on pullbacks
price/trend score 63.1; VAMS Buy; options setup 52.2; DeMark rank 51.8; constituent breadth score 90.3; holdings look-through 81.3; macro setup 36.0
ETF Research Note
XLU - Utilities
Defensive Sectors context across the current Apex Macro deck stack: breadth, ETF technicals, VAMS, Options Intelligence, DeMark 9/13, CFTC positioning, rates/credit, Macro Lens, and allocation context.
Group: Defensive Sectors
Action: Overweight / add on pullbacks
Composite: 63.5 / 100
Macro quintile: 1
Main Risk
No major current conflict across available inputs.
How To Use
Start with the signal stack, then confirm whether VAMS, options, DeMark, positioning, and macro are agreeing or fighting the price trend.
Price46.29
1W3.0%
1M1.2%
3M2.7%
6M5.1%
1Y6.5%
Analyst Conclusion
This is the front-page decision note: verdict, setup quality, key evidence, primary friction, and the triggers that would upgrade or downgrade the ticker.
| Analyst Verdict | Setup Quality | Best Support | Main Friction | Fresh Tape | Macro Use | Upgrade Trigger | Downgrade Trigger |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overweight / add on pullbacks | Usable but selective | ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, VAMS, Rates / Credit | DeMark, Macro | Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, Breadth above 50DMA | Context only | options tape moves into a validated supportive setup | fresh 5D deterioration persists: Options setup score, Macro setup score; VAMS flips Sell or weakens materially; breadth rolls over or damage breadth rises |
One-Minute PM Summary
The report starts with the decision layer, then shows the evidence. "What changed since last week" is a fixed 5-trading-day lookback so the read is clear to anyone opening the note.
| Decision | Confidence | Agreement | Best Evidence | Main Conflict | What Changed Since Last Week |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Overweight / add on pullbacks | Medium | 5 constructive / 2 conflict | ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, VAMS | DeMark, Macro | Price: Improved (3.0%); Relative strength vs SPY: Improved (3.4%); Breadth above 50DMA: Improved (+22.6 pts) |
PM Action Framework
This combines the agreement score, trade construction, confirmation/invalidation triggers, and the fixed 5-trading-day change lens into one decision table.
| Lens | Current Read | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| Cross-deck agreement | 66.7 / 100 | Medium confidence | 5 constructive, 2 neutral, 2 conflict across 9 layers. | Use as the compression layer; it should summarize the evidence, not replace it. |
| Position construction | Add / overweight candidate | price/trend score 63.1; VAMS Buy; options setup 52.2; DeMark rank 51.8; constituent breadth score 90.3; holdings look-through 81.3; macro setup 36.0 | Translates the signal stack into sizing language. |
| What changed since last week | Price improved (3.0%); Relative strength vs SPY improved (3.4%); Breadth above 50DMA improved (+22.6 pts); VAMS signal improved (+0.82) | Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available. | Separates fresh changes from stale-looking deck levels. |
| Confirmation | ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, VAMS, Rates / Credit | VAMS Buy; technical state Confirmed leadership. | Adds should come from multiple independent confirmations, not a single strong chart. |
| Invalidation | DeMark, Macro | No major current conflict across available inputs. | If these layers worsen, reduce size or wait for repair. |
Ticker Playbook
Rules-based action map for an analyst or PM: what would justify adding, holding, trimming, avoiding, or revisiting next week.
| Action | Rule | Current Status | Evidence To Watch |
|---|---|---|---|
| Add / increase | Agreement score near/above 68 with limited conflicts, or strong peer leadership with no major veto. | Selective add / pullback add | ETF Technicals, Breadth, ETF Holdings, VAMS, Rates / Credit |
| Hold / monitor | Agreement 48-68, strong trend with unresolved confirmation gaps, or VAMS Sell capping an otherwise good setup. | Appropriate | Trend state: Confirmed leadership; VAMS: Buy. |
| Trim / reduce | Multiple conflicts, VAMS Sell, breadth deterioration, or options/DeMark warning. | Active risk | DeMark, Macro |
| Avoid / wait | Agreement below 45 or downtrend/chase-risk setup without cross-deck confirmation. | Not primary | No major current conflict across available inputs. |
| Recheck next week | Use the fixed 5-trading-day change lens to separate fresh repair from stale signal levels. | Deteriorating: Options setup score, Macro setup score | Improving: Price, Relative strength vs SPY, Breadth above 50DMA |
What Changed Since Last Week
Fixed 5-trading-day lookback across price, relative strength, breadth, VAMS, options, DeMark, and macro where available.
| Signal | Now | 5D Ago | Change | Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Price | 46.29 | 44.94 | 3.0% | Improved |
| Relative strength vs SPY | 0.063 | 0.061 | 3.4% | Improved |
| Breadth above 50DMA | 96.8% | 74.2% | +22.6 pts | Improved |
| Breadth above 200DMA | 83.9% | 83.9% | +0.0 pts | Stable |
| Damage breadth | 9.7% | 9.7% | +0.0 pts | Stable |
| VAMS signal | Buy (0.67) | Sell (-0.15) | +0.82 | Improved |
| Options setup score | 50.3 | 56.8 | -6.5 pts | Deteriorated |
| DeMark technical rank | 51.8 | 38.5 | +13.3 pts | Improved |
| Macro setup score | 36.0 | 41.8 | -5.7 pts | Deteriorated |
Price Trend And Relative Strength
Start here: absolute trend first, then relative trend versus the market. These two charts anchor the rest of the evidence stack.
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price14D RSI
Up candleDown candle50DMA XLU/SPY ratio200DMA XLU/SPY ratio14D RSI
Deck Cards
Breadth
Constituent participation and damage under the ticker.
Breadth score90.3
50DMA / 200DMA96.8% / 83.9%
Damage9.7%
ETF Holdings
Current Alpha Vantage look-through: concentration, top holdings, and contribution estimate.
Holdings31
Top 5 / 10 weight38.3% / 57.7%
Confirmation81.3
ETF Technicals
Trend, z-score, relative strength, and return profile.
StateConfirmed leadership
Return Z0.06
MA Dev Z0.58
VAMS
Volume-confirmed volatility-adjusted momentum.
SignalBuy
VAMS0.67
Since2026-07-25
Options
Validated options tape and setup pressure.
PM actionSelective
Setup52.2
ValidationHigh Setup Pressure led to worse returns
DeMark 9/13
Exhaustion, setup, and validation context.
ActionHold / require confirmation
SignalUpper 9
Rank51.8
CFTC Positioning
Futures proxy for sponsorship/crowding.
ProxyS&P 500
ReadCrowded long
3Y pctile80.1
Rates / Credit
Macro risk-budget governor.
2s10s0.36
HY OAS2.77
MOVE70.88
Macro
Command Center and Macro Lens overlay.
PM stanceUnderweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime
Risk appetite34.2
Macro quintile1
Allocation
Model sleeve and current expression.
SleeveOwn Growth, Do Not Chase The Whole Market
RationaleUnderweight: defensives are not leading enough to justify a ballast overweight while the momentum overlay favors riskier leadership.
ViewUnderweight
ETF Look-Through: Holdings And Concentration
Holdings are the latest Alpha Vantage point-in-time ETF_PROFILE snapshot. Contribution estimates use current weights multiplied by recent holding returns; they are not historical attribution.
Holdings Snapshot
Holdings returned31
Top 3 / 5 / 1027.4% / 38.3% / 57.7%
AUM$23.1B
Expense / turnover0.08% / 2.0%
Snapshot refreshed2026-07-25T18:44:16
Look-Through Verdict
Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 100% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 38.3%.
Confirmation score81.3 / 100
Top 10 above 50DMA100%
Top 10 positive 1M / 3M100% / 70%
Top 10 1M / 3M contribution1.00% / 0.04%
Top 10 Holdings Table
60D Return Z is each holding's 60-day return measured against that stock's own recent return history.
| Holding | Name | Weight | 1W | 1M | 3M | Above 50DMA | 60D Return Z | 1M Contribution | 3M Contribution |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| NEE | NEXTERA ENERGY INC | 13.08% | 1.1% | 2.5% | -6.7% | Yes | -1.56 | 0.32% | -0.88% |
| SO | SOUTHERN CO | 7.51% | 2.0% | 1.5% | 3.6% | Yes | 0.30 | 0.12% | 0.27% |
| DUK | DUKE ENERGY CORP | 6.83% | 4.4% | 3.2% | 1.9% | Yes | 0.07 | 0.22% | 0.13% |
| CEG | CONSTELLATION ENERGY CORP | 5.81% | 8.7% | 2.4% | -6.3% | Yes | -0.60 | 0.14% | -0.37% |
| AEP | AMERICAN ELECTRIC POWER CO INC | 5.08% | 2.6% | 0.4% | 0.3% | Yes | -1.07 | 0.02% | 0.02% |
| D | DOMINION ENERGY INC | 4.40% | 0.1% | 2.7% | 13.7% | Yes | 1.66 | 0.12% | 0.60% |
| SRE | SEMPRA | 4.27% | 0.8% | 0.3% | -1.0% | Yes | -0.65 | 0.01% | -0.04% |
| ETR | ENTERGY CORP | 3.68% | 2.4% | 1.1% | 1.8% | Yes | -0.81 | 0.04% | 0.07% |
| VST | VISTRA CORP | 3.58% | 5.1% | 0.3% | 4.2% | Yes | 0.14 | 0.01% | 0.15% |
| XEL | XCEL ENERGY INC | 3.48% | 3.7% | 0.2% | 2.8% | Yes | -0.13 | 0.01% | 0.10% |
Sector Exposure
| Sector | Weight |
|---|---|
| UTILITIES | 99.4% |
| INFORMATION TECHNOLOGY | 0.0% |
| COMMUNICATION SERVICES | 0.0% |
| CONSUMER DISCRETIONARY | 0.0% |
| HEALTHCARE | 0.0% |
| CONSUMER STAPLES | 0.0% |
| INDUSTRIALS | 0.0% |
| MATERIALS | 0.0% |
Top Holding Price Checks
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Up candleDown candle50DMA price200DMA price
Peer / Group Rank
Ranks the ticker against its current ETF group using 1M return, 3M return, distance from the 50DMA, and drawdown from the trailing 1Y high. The current ticker row is highlighted.
| Ticker | Current | Name | 1M | 3M | 50DMA Dist | 1Y DD | Composite Rank | Score |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| XLRE | Real Estate | 2.8% | 4.0% | 2.9% | 0.0% | #1 | ||
| XLV | Health Care | -0.7% | 8.9% | 3.2% | -1.1% | #2 | ||
| XLU | Current | Utilities | 1.2% | 2.7% | 2.6% | -1.7% | #3 | |
| XLP | Consumer Staples | -1.0% | -0.1% | -0.0% | -5.4% | #4 |
Signal Stack
| Layer | Read | Score | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Confirmed leadership | 1M 1.2%, 3M 2.7%, return z 0.06, MA dev z 0.58. | |
| Breadth | Constituent breadth | 50DMA 96.8%, 200DMA 83.9%, damage 9.7%. | |
| ETF Holdings | Top-holding confirmation | Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 100% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 38.3%. | |
| VAMS | Buy | Current VAMS 0.67, 5D change 0.82, since 2026-07-25. | |
| Options | Selective | Building Options Pressure | High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol | |
| DeMark 9/13 | Hold / require confirmation | Upper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 38%, N 76 | |
| CFTC | Crowded long | S&P 500: positioning pctile 80.1, inst/HF %OI 31.3, 13W change 3,688. | |
| Rates / Credit | Risk-budget governor | 2s10s 0.36, HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58. | |
| Macro | Underweight under a Cut Risk And Wait For Repair regime | Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3. |
What The Evidence Means
Translation layer for the report's less intuitive signals. This is designed to make the deck usable even if the reader has not memorized every Apex Macro metric.
| Layer | State | What It Means | PM Use | Evidence |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Constructive | Price trend and relative performance are investable. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | Confirmed leadership; 1M 1.2%, 3M 2.7%. |
| Breadth | Constructive | Participation under the ETF is broad enough to support sizing. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | 50DMA 96.8%, 200DMA 83.9%, damage 9.7%. |
| ETF Holdings | Constructive | The ETF's largest current holdings are confirming the ETF-level tape. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 100% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 38.3%. |
| VAMS | Constructive | Volatility-adjusted momentum confirms ownership. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | Buy signal; VAMS 0.67, 5D change 0.82. |
| Options | Neutral | Options setup is not a strong signal; use it as context. | Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision. | Building Options Pressure | High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol |
| DeMark | Conflict | Exhaustion/validation evidence argues against chasing. | Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check. | Upper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 38%, N 76 |
| CFTC | Neutral | Positioning is useful context but not a trade trigger. | Monitor; do not let this layer dominate the decision. | S&P 500: percentile 80.1, read Crowded long. |
| Rates / Credit | Constructive | Macro risk budget is supportive for risk exposure. | Can support add/hold if other layers agree. | HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58. |
| Macro | Conflict | Macro backdrop fights the trade and reduces risk budget. | Treat as a sizing constraint or invalidation check. | Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3. |
Signal Agreement Detail
Independent layers are classified as constructive, neutral, or conflicting. This prevents one strong chart from overpowering a weak cross-deck setup.
| Layer | State | Score | Evidence | PM Use |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Constructive | Confirmed leadership; 1M 1.2%, 3M 2.7%. | Confirms whether price trend is investable or still needs repair. | |
| Breadth | Constructive | 50DMA 96.8%, 200DMA 83.9%, damage 9.7%. | Tests whether the move has enough participation to size up. | |
| ETF Holdings | Constructive | Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 100% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 38.3%. | Checks whether the ETF's largest current holdings are confirming or masking the ETF-level signal. | |
| VAMS | Constructive | Buy signal; VAMS 0.67, 5D change 0.82. | Separates confirmed momentum from rallies the model does not want to own. | |
| Options | Neutral | Building Options Pressure | High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol | Checks whether the current options tape has historically helped or hurt forward returns. | |
| DeMark | Conflict | Upper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 38%, N 76 | Adds timing context around exhaustion, continuation, and failed setup risk. | |
| CFTC | Neutral | S&P 500: percentile 80.1, read Crowded long. | Flags crowding or sponsorship in the nearest futures proxy. | |
| Rates / Credit | Constructive | HY OAS 2.77, MOVE 70.88, VIX 18.58. | Sets the macro risk budget around credit, volatility, and rates pressure. | |
| Macro | Conflict | Risk appetite 34.2, FCI 47.6, drawdown risk 77.3. | Keeps the ticker read aligned with the broader top-down regime. |
Plain-English Signal Guide
This is the translation layer: what each deck is telling you, why it matters, and how to use it without needing to memorize every metric name.
| Deck | Plain English | Current Read | How To Use |
|---|---|---|---|
| ETF Technicals | Is price trend confirming, stretched, or repairing? | Confirmed leadership | Use z-scores to avoid chasing extreme strength and spot washed-out repair setups. |
| Breadth | Is the move supported by many holdings or only a few leaders? | 50DMA 96.8%, damage 9.7% | Higher participation with falling damage supports adds; rising damage argues for smaller sizing. |
| ETF Holdings | Are the ETF's largest current holdings confirming or masking the ETF-level signal? | Top 10 holdings: look-through confirms the ETF tape; 100% above 50DMA, 100% positive 1M, top-5 concentration 38.3%. | Use current-weight contribution and concentration as a look-through check, not as historical attribution. |
| VAMS | Is volatility-adjusted momentum strong enough, with volume confirmation, to own the ETF? | Buy | VAMS 0.67 | Buy means momentum is confirmed; Sell means the model is withholding risk even if price is bouncing. |
| Options | Does the options tape say the setup has historically been rewarded or punished? | Selective | Use as a validation layer, not a standalone trade trigger. |
| DeMark | Is the ticker near trend exhaustion or a validated continuation setup? | Hold / require confirmation | Helpful for timing entries after big moves or failed breakouts. |
| CFTC / Macro | Are positioning, rates, credit, and macro conditions helping or fighting the trade? | Crowded long / macro quintile 1 | Keeps single-ticker conviction tied to the broader risk budget. |
Evidence Quality
Flags where the evidence is deep enough to lean on versus where it should be treated as supporting context.
| Evidence Layer | Quality | Sample / Coverage | How To Trust It |
|---|---|---|---|
| Breadth | High | 4,164 | Native history is strongest when the ticker has a long breadth series; otherwise price proxy carries more weight. |
| VAMS | High | 5,514 | Model history supports signal/current state and the ticker-level strategy comparison. |
| Options | High | 531 | Options validation uses the current setup history; shorter samples should be treated as confirmation, not a standalone trigger. |
| DeMark | Thin | 77 | Validation rows compare the current 9/13 setup to prior completed signals. |
| CFTC | High | 968 | Positioning evidence is proxy based; use it as sponsorship/crowding context rather than a precise ETF signal. |
| Macro Quintile | High | 5,200 | Macro analog rows test how the ticker has behaved across broad risk-budget regimes. |
| Rates / Credit | High | 1,842 | Driver sensitivity is most useful when the ticker has enough daily overlap with the macro series. |
VAMS Momentum And Backtest
This block mirrors the Command Center/VAMS chart style: price plus VAMS signal, then VAMS strategy versus ETF buy/hold across the displayed backtest window.
Current VAMS State
Buy
VAMS 0.67 | 5D chg 0.82 | since 2026-07-25
PriceVAMS Signal (right axis)
VAMS StrategyETF Buy/Hold
Both curves are re-indexed to 100 at the first date of the displayed VAMS backtest window (2025-02-21 through 2026-07-25), and the statistics below are calculated from that same window.
VAMS: Ann Ret 17.1% | Sharpe 2.10 | Max DD -3.3%
Buy/Hold: Ann Ret 7.2% | Sharpe 0.59 | Max DD -9.9%
Excess: 9.9% | Capture Spread: 19.9%
Buy/Hold: Ann Ret 7.2% | Sharpe 0.59 | Max DD -9.9%
Excess: 9.9% | Capture Spread: 19.9%
Breadth Dashboard
Each breadth metric gets its own chart so participation, trend breadth, outperformance, and damage can be read without line clutter.
Constituents Above 20DMA
Percentage of ETF constituents trading above their own 20-day moving average. This captures short-term participation.
Constituents Above 20DMA
Constituents Above 50DMA
Percentage of ETF constituents trading above their own 50-day moving average. This is the intermediate participation read.
Constituents Above 50DMA
Constituents Above 200DMA
Percentage of ETF constituents trading above their own 200-day moving average. Strong readings show durable trend support.
Constituents Above 200DMA
Constituents With Positive 20D Return
Percentage of ETF constituents with a positive trailing 20-day return. Useful for spotting narrowing or broadening leadership.
Constituents With Positive 20D Return
Constituents Near 52W High
Percentage of ETF constituents trading within 5% of their own 52-week high. Higher readings show broader upside participation.
Constituents Near 52W High
Damage Breadth
Percentage of ETF constituents more than 20% below their own 52-week high. Higher is worse because damage is spreading.
Damage Breadth
60D Constituent Outperformance
Percentage of ETF constituents outperforming the benchmark over roughly three months.
60D Constituent Outperformance
ETF Return Z-Scores
Z-scores compare each return window against the ETF's own history. The dashed +2 and -2 bands mark unusually stretched or unusually washed-out readings.
30D Return Z
Short-term return versus its own history. Above +2 is unusually hot; below -2 is unusually washed out.
30D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
60D Return Z
Intermediate return pulse versus history. Helps separate durable leadership from normal noise.
60D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
90D Return Z
Quarterly return stretch/repair signal. Useful for allocation timing.
90D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
120D Return Z
Longer intermediate return context. Strong but not extreme is usually healthier than vertical.
120D Return Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
Moving-Average Extension Z-Scores
These charts show how extended price is versus its own moving averages. Above +2 is chase risk; below -2 is potential repair territory, depending on the broader signal stack.
20DMA Dev Z
Near-term price extension versus its 20DMA.
20DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
50DMA Dev Z
Intermediate extension versus its 50DMA.
50DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
100DMA Dev Z
Medium-term extension versus its 100DMA.
100DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
200DMA Dev Z
Long-term extension versus its 200DMA.
200DMA Dev Z+2 stretched0-2 washed out
Options Current Setup
| Metric | Current | Read |
|---|---|---|
| Forward setup | 52.2 | Building Options Pressure | High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol |
| Calm tape | 47.8 | Building Options Pressure | High raw options pressure has historically led to worse 60D forward returns for this symbol |
| Movement risk | 44.1 | Options evidence is usable, but sizing should depend on price trend, breadth, and Forward Return Evidence. |
| Protection demand | 44.3 | Selective |
Options Validation Snapshot
Current metric bucket evidence. This is deliberately compact; the cheat sheet remains the deep options validation deck.
| Metric | Current | Bucket | Obs | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 3M Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Setup Pressure | 50.3 | Q3 | 90 | 1.2% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 60% |
| Calm Tape | 49.0 | Q3 | 85 | 1.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 66% |
| Movement Risk | 42.7 | Q2 | 83 | 1.4% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 60% |
| Protection Demand | 44.3 | Q2 | 85 | 1.3% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 60% |
| Hedge Urgency | 40.7 | Q2 | 84 | 1.6% | 4.4% | 8.1% | 60% |
| Gamma Stability | 82.1 | Q5 High | 57 | 1.7% | 5.4% | 8.0% | 42% |
| Upside Chase | 36.2 | Q2 | 93 | 1.6% | 6.0% | 8.8% | 75% |
Forward-Return Setup
Composite setup score from repricing pressure, fragility, hedge urgency, and complacency. The validation table shows whether similar scores were historically rewarded or punished. Current score: 50.3.
PriceForward-Return Setup
Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile
| Bucket | Range | Current | Obs | Avg 1W | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 1M Hit | 3M Hit | 6M Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Low | 19.6 to 38.8 | 104 | 0.3% | 2.4% | 5.9% | 9.1% | 75% | 86% | 79% | |
| Q2 | 39.0 to 46.2 | 95 | 0.6% | 2.3% | 5.7% | 9.2% | 73% | 75% | 80% | |
| Q3 | 46.3 to 52.5 | Current | 90 | 0.2% | 1.2% | 4.1% | 7.4% | 55% | 60% | 68% |
| Q4 | 52.6 to 60.9 | 86 | 0.1% | 0.6% | 2.7% | 6.6% | 51% | 55% | 63% | |
| Q5 High | 61.1 to 89.4 | 93 | 0.3% | 0.7% | 1.6% | 4.8% | 54% | 46% | 61% |
Calm Options Tape
Higher readings mean the options tape is calmer and less hedged. For some tickers that is constructive; for others it can mark complacency. Current score: 49.0.
PriceCalm Options Tape
Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile
| Bucket | Range | Current | Obs | Avg 1W | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 1M Hit | 3M Hit | 6M Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Low | 15.4 to 41.2 | 102 | 0.0% | 0.1% | 1.9% | 5.2% | 44% | 58% | 76% | |
| Q2 | 41.2 to 47.9 | 94 | 0.3% | 1.0% | 3.7% | 7.3% | 56% | 64% | 74% | |
| Q3 | 48.0 to 53.1 | Current | 85 | 0.6% | 1.6% | 4.9% | 8.4% | 68% | 66% | 67% |
| Q4 | 53.1 to 58.0 | 93 | 0.5% | 2.2% | 5.0% | 8.3% | 67% | 68% | 75% | |
| Q5 High | 58.1 to 78.8 | 94 | 0.3% | 2.5% | 5.0% | 9.0% | 73% | 66% | 60% |
Movement Risk
Fragility and near-term movement risk from IV, hedging pressure, and gamma instability. Current score: 42.7.
PriceMovement Risk
Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile
| Bucket | Range | Current | Obs | Avg 1W | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 1M Hit | 3M Hit | 6M Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Low | 21.4 to 39.6 | 92 | 0.4% | 3.0% | 6.5% | 9.5% | 75% | 76% | 64% | |
| Q2 | 39.7 to 46.1 | Current | 83 | 0.4% | 1.4% | 5.2% | 8.9% | 64% | 60% | 63% |
| Q3 | 46.1 to 51.9 | 95 | 0.4% | 1.5% | 4.4% | 7.2% | 58% | 66% | 75% | |
| Q4 | 51.9 to 61.1 | 95 | 0.1% | 1.0% | 3.4% | 7.7% | 61% | 69% | 75% | |
| Q5 High | 61.2 to 87.8 | 103 | 0.3% | 0.5% | 1.2% | 5.1% | 48% | 51% | 74% |
Protection Demand
Demand for downside protection using put/call activity, put volume intensity, and implied volatility pressure. Current score: 44.3.
PriceProtection Demand
Forward-Return Validation By Current Metric Quintile
| Bucket | Range | Current | Obs | Avg 1W | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 1M Hit | 3M Hit | 6M Hit |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Q1 Low | 6.5 to 35.8 | 96 | 0.6% | 2.9% | 5.1% | 8.3% | 71% | 69% | 68% | |
| Q2 | 35.8 to 44.4 | Current | 85 | 0.1% | 1.3% | 4.5% | 8.5% | 60% | 60% | 63% |
| Q3 | 44.5 to 52.6 | 93 | 0.5% | 1.8% | 5.2% | 8.5% | 66% | 68% | 75% | |
| Q4 | 52.6 to 64.6 | 100 | 0.2% | 0.9% | 3.7% | 7.2% | 58% | 70% | 80% | |
| Q5 High | 64.9 to 94.6 | 94 | 0.2% | 0.4% | 1.8% | 5.3% | 52% | 55% | 65% |
DeMark 9/13 Candlestick Context
This mirrors the DeMark deck read: recent candles, the latest 9/13 trigger label, and the active daily/weekly/ratio setup context.
Up candleDown candleLower 9/13Upper 9/13
DeMark 9/13 Read
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Daily | Upper countdown 7/13 |
| Weekly | Upper setup 5/9 |
| Ratio | Lower countdown 12/13 |
| PM action | Hold / require confirmation |
| Validation | Poor history |
CFTC Positioning
| Metric | Value |
|---|---|
| Proxy | S&P 500 |
| Mapping | Sector ETF uses broad S&P 500 positioning proxy |
| Read | Crowded long |
| Inst/HF %OI | 31.3 |
| 3Y Percentile | 80.1 |
| 13W Change | 3,688 |
DeMark Validation Snapshot
Each forward window is shown as return / hit rate / sample size. Lower signals judge positive follow-through; upper signals judge downside follow-through. This is full-width because the DeMark evidence columns need room.
| Lens | Signal | Age | Alignment | Read | Evidence | 5D | 10D | 21D | 63D |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current daily 9/13 signal | Upper 9 | 29 calendar days ago | Divergent / Needs Confirmation | Poor history | Upper 9 21D: avg 0.5%, hit 38%, N 76 | -0.2% / 49% / N 77 | 0.2% / 36% / N 77 | 0.5% / 38% / N 76 | 1.6% / 39% / N 76 |
| Daily / weekly / relative alignment | Upper 9 | 29 calendar days ago | Daily Only | Strong multipanel | Daily + Weekly 21D: median -1.0%, avg -0.6%, hit 62%, N 8 | med -0.6% / hit 62% / N 8 | med -0.1% / hit 50% / N 8 | med -1.0% / hit 62% / N 8 | med 0.3% / hit 38% / N 8 |
SPY price proxyInst/HF %OI
Rates / Credit
| Metric | Latest | 1M Chg | 3Y Pctile |
|---|---|---|---|
| 2Y Treasury | 4.37 | 0.21 | 68.9 |
| 10Y Treasury | 4.71 | 0.21 | 97.4 |
| 2s10s | 0.36 | 0.06 | 57.5 |
| HY OAS | 2.77 | 0.01 | 17.3 |
| IG OAS | 0.79 | 0.04 | 20.3 |
| MOVE | 70.88 | 1.82 | 14.4 |
| VIX | 18.58 | -0.05 | 73.3 |
Rates / Credit And Macro Sensitivity
Each driver gets its own diagnostic stack: ticker price, 21-day driver move, rolling 30-day correlation, rolling 30-day beta, and current sensitivity metrics.
USD
Dollar pressure. Rising USD often tightens global liquidity and can pressure foreign, commodity, and high-beta exposures.
XLU priceUSD 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.8% | 1.0% | 66% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | 0.79 | 0.18 | 99% | Positive link: ticker has recently moved with this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | 2.33 | 0.60 | 97% | High sensitivity right now; this driver deserves sizing attention. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
Oil
Oil/inflation pressure. Rising oil can help energy but may tighten financial conditions for rate-sensitive groups.
XLU priceOil 21D return %Rolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 31.5% | -4.7% | 100% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.73 | -0.56 | 7% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -0.09 | -0.18 | 34% | Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
10Y Yield
Duration pressure. Rising 10-year yields test long-duration growth and rate-sensitive sleeves.
XLU price10Y Yield 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.21 pts | 0.07 pts | 82% | High pressure versus this driver's own history. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | 0.06 | -0.46 | 67% | Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | 1.10 | -8.79 | 67% | Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
HY Spreads
Credit stress. Widening high-yield spreads are a direct check on risk appetite and cyclical beta.
XLU priceHY Spreads 21D change, pct ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 0.01 pts | -0.08 pts | 62% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | 0.32 | -0.29 | 78% | Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | 8.00 | -2.32 | 87% | Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
MOVE
Rates volatility. Rising MOVE makes duration and credit sizing less forgiving.
XLU priceMOVE 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | 1.8 pts | -3.5 pts | 61% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | 0.13 | -0.48 | 73% | Weak current link; do not over-weight this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | 0.04 | -0.09 | 73% | Low sensitivity right now; driver is a secondary context layer. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
VIX
Equity volatility. Rising VIX tests whether the ETF can hold up in risk-off tape.
XLU priceVIX 21D change, index ptsRolling 30D correlationRolling 30D beta
Current Diagnostic
| Metric | Current | 3M Avg | Current Pctile | PM Read | Why It Matters |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 21D Driver Move | -0.0 pts | -1.6 pts | 54% | Middle-of-range pressure; use with the beta/correlation rows. | Macro pressure impulse |
| Rolling 30D Corr | -0.44 | -0.41 | 47% | Negative link: ticker has recently moved against this driver. | Whether the ETF is currently moving with the driver |
| Rolling 30D Beta | -0.36 | -0.21 | 38% | Moderate sensitivity; useful for risk-budget context. | How much the ETF has moved per unit of driver move |
Macro-Regime Validation: Does The Regime Matter?
This compares the current Macro Lens quintile against the ticker's all-regime baseline, best macro bucket, and worst macro bucket. If the current edge is small, the report says so instead of forcing a macro conclusion.
| Test | Quintile | Obs | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 3M Hit | Avg 6M Max DD | Verdict | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Current macro quintile | 1 | 1037 | 0.9% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 65% | -5.4% | Context only | Weak standalone macro edge; rely more on price, breadth, VAMS, options, and positioning. |
| All macro states baseline | All | 5200 | 0.7% | 2.1% | 4.1% | 65% | -5.0% | Baseline | Baseline for judging whether the current regime matters. |
| Best 3M macro quintile | 1 | 1037 | 0.9% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 65% | -5.4% | Reference | Best historical macro quintile for this ticker. |
| Worst 3M macro quintile | 5 | 1048 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 64% | -6.0% | Reference | Worst historical macro quintile for this ticker. |
| Current edge vs baseline | 1 | 0.2% | 0.3% | 0.7% | -0% | -0.4% | Edge test | Positive gap means the current macro quintile has beaten the ticker's baseline; negative gap means it has lagged. |
Quintile Detail
| Quintile | Current | Obs | Avg 1M | Avg 3M | Avg 6M | 3M Hit | Avg 6M Max DD | PM Read |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | Current | 1037 | 0.9% | 2.4% | 4.8% | 65% | -5.4% | Current macro quintile |
| 2 | 1028 | 0.9% | 1.9% | 4.2% | 63% | -4.4% | Comparison bucket | |
| 3 | 1051 | 0.8% | 2.0% | 4.2% | 66% | -4.5% | Comparison bucket | |
| 4 | 1036 | 0.6% | 2.2% | 4.1% | 69% | -4.5% | Comparison bucket | |
| 5 | 1048 | 0.3% | 1.8% | 3.3% | 64% | -6.0% | Comparison bucket |