Fiscal Monitor

Executive Summary

Latest actual operating data through 2026-05-29; forward maturity horizon through 2056-06-30; chart window starts 2017-01-01.

Fiscal Monitor

A strategist-grade view of fiscal impulse, tax receipts, spending pressure, debt burden, issuance composition, and maturity/refunding risk.

Total Public Debt$39.18T

Latest: 2026-05-28

Debt YoY8.2%

Daily Debt to the Penny

Receipts FYTD YoY6.7%

MTS total receipts

Outlays FYTD YoY2.8%

MTS total outlays

Front-End Issuance70.5%

Bills and <=1Y share

Executive Fiscal Risk Score 60

Elevated Watch

Fiscal Risk Component Dashboard

Higher component scores indicate more pressure from debt growth, deficit widening, interest burden, near-term supply, or weaker auction demand.

Component	Score	Latest Read	Interpretation
Debt Growth	74	8.2%	Debt to the Penny YoY
Deficit Impulse	17	$-95.2B	FYTD deficit widening vs same fiscal-month last year
Debt Service	100	22.1%	Gross interest FYTD as % of receipts
Supply Pressure	65	$674.0B	Announced issuance next 30 days
Auction Demand	45	-0.01	Recent bid-to-cover vs full-sample median

How The Fiscal Risk Score Is Computed

The headline score is the equal-weight average of five 0-100 component scores. A reading near 0 means the component is relatively benign, 50 is mid-range pressure, and 100 is elevated stress. If a component is unavailable, the score averages the available components only.

Component	Input	Scoring Range	Interpretation
Debt Growth	Debt to the Penny YoY growth	3% = low pressure; 10% = high pressure	Higher debt growth raises the score.
Deficit Impulse	Current FYTD deficit minus comparable prior-year FYTD deficit	-$250B = easing; +$650B = high pressure	Wider deficits raise the score.
Debt Service	Gross interest FYTD as a percent of total receipts FYTD	8% = low pressure; 22% = high pressure	More revenue absorbed by interest raises the score.
Supply Pressure	Announced Treasury issuance over the next 30 days	$250B = low pressure; $900B = high pressure	Larger near-term supply raises the score.
Auction Demand	Recent bid-to-cover versus the full-sample type median	-0.45 = weak; +0.35 = strong	This component is inverted, so weaker demand raises the score.

Operating latest date

The latest date across actual debt, Daily Treasury Statement receipts, Monthly Treasury Statement, average-rate, and GDP inputs. It excludes future maturity dates.

Forward maturity horizon

The farthest maturity date implied by Treasury auction records. This can extend decades into the future and should not be read as latest actual fiscal data.

Receipts and outlays

Monthly Treasury Statement table 3 line items. Amount charts use monthly values; YoY charts compare the same line item against the month one year earlier.

Weekly tax deposits

Daily Treasury Statement deposits aggregated to Friday weeks. This is the high-frequency tax-receipt pulse, including withheld individual/FICA, corporate, and non-withheld taxes.

FYTD YoY

Current fiscal year-to-date value divided by prior fiscal year-to-date value minus one, using Treasury-reported prior FYTD fields where available.

Issuance share

Monthly auction offering amount for each security type divided by total monthly offering amount across Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS, and FRNs.

Debt to GDP

Total public debt outstanding divided by FRED nominal GDP, series GDP, in current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Each debt date uses the latest available GDP quarter.

True Interest Expense

Analytic memo line equal to Social Security Administration, Health and Human Services, Defense--Military Programs, and gross interest on Treasury debt. Its share column is shown explicitly as a percent of total receipts.

Social Security trust funds

Official SSA OACT quarterly OASDI data. Trust fund asset reserves are quarter-end levels; rolling 12-month income and cost are trailing four-quarter sums.

Forward estimates

Future issue dates, announced offering amounts, and maturity-wall schedules from Treasury auction data. Running with --refresh repulls these estimates.

Fiscal Risk Score

Composite 0-100 stress read across debt growth, deficit impulse, debt-service burden, announced 30-day supply, and recent auction bid-to-cover quality.

Auction Demand

Bid-to-cover equals total bids received divided by securities awarded. Higher readings usually indicate stronger demand/absorption; weaker readings can flag supply indigestion.

Foreign Demand

Treasury TIC Table 3 supplies country-level Treasury holder history back to 2020. The aggregate official line uses the Fed/FRED custody series as a continuous five-year proxy; the short TIC MFH official memo line is only available for the latest monthly panel.

Foreign Equity Holdings

Treasury TIC SLT Table 1 supplies country-level foreign holdings of U.S. corporate equity, including holdings, net sales, and valuation-change fields. The equity section separates market gains/losses from buyer/seller flow where available.

Expanded Fiscal Policy Monitor Matrix

API-calculated only. Dollar columns in this matrix are denominated in billions ($B). Current fiscal year is annualized from fiscal YTD months starting October 1 and compared with the same fiscal months last year. Share columns avoid nested subtotals; outlays include an All Other residual row so displayed categories reconcile to total outlays. True Interest Expense is an analytic memo line, not a component of the reconciliation totals; its share cells are calculated as a percent of total receipts.

Apex Macro US Fiscal Policy Monitor	Annualized Nominal Fiscal YTD Sum ($B)					Share of Total by Category / Receipts Burden					Percent of Nominal GDP					YoY $ Change ($B)					YoY % Change
	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)
Federal Revenue	$4,896B	$4,439B	$4,919B	$5,235B	$5,692B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	18.3%	15.6%	16.5%	16.7%	17.9%	$850B	$-457B	$479B	$316B	$359B	21.0%	-9.3%	10.8%	6.4%	6.7%
Total -- Individual Income Taxes	$2,632B	$2,176B	$2,426B	$2,656B	$3,018B	53.8%	49.0%	49.3%	50.7%	53.0%	9.8%	7.7%	8.1%	8.5%	9.5%	$588B	$-456B	$250B	$230B	$137B	28.8%	-17.3%	11.5%	9.5%	4.7%
Corporation Income Taxes	$425B	$420B	$530B	$452B	$341B	8.7%	9.5%	10.8%	8.6%	6.0%	1.6%	1.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.1%	$53B	$-5B	$110B	$-78B	$-97B	14.3%	-1.2%	26.3%	-14.7%	-22.2%
Customs Duties	$100B	$80B	$77B	$195B	$323B	2.0%	1.8%	1.6%	3.7%	5.7%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%	1.0%	$20B	$-20B	$-3B	$118B	$222B	24.9%	-19.6%	-4.1%	153.0%	218.5%
Estate and Gift Taxes	$33B	$34B	$32B	$29B	$42B	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$5B	$1B	$-2B	$-2B	$13B	19.9%	3.4%	-6.1%	-6.8%	47.3%
Total -- Excise Taxes	$88B	$76B	$101B	$106B	$100B	1.8%	1.7%	2.1%	2.0%	1.8%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	$12B	$-12B	$26B	$5B	$-1B	16.5%	-13.6%	33.8%	4.4%	-1.4%
Total -- Miscellaneous Receipts	$135B	$39B	$43B	$48B	$31B	2.8%	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%	0.6%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	$2B	$-96B	$4B	$5B	$-5B	1.6%	-71.2%	10.8%	11.1%	-12.7%
Total -- Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts	$1,484B	$1,614B	$1,710B	$1,748B	$1,836B	30.3%	36.4%	34.8%	33.4%	32.3%	5.5%	5.7%	5.7%	5.6%	5.8%	$169B	$131B	$95B	$39B	$90B	12.9%	8.8%	5.9%	2.3%	5.2%
Federal Expenditures	$6,272B	$6,134B	$6,752B	$7,010B	$7,326B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	23.4%	21.6%	22.6%	22.3%	23.0%	$-547B	$-137B	$617B	$258B	$196B	-8.0%	-2.2%	10.1%	3.8%	2.8%
Total--Department of Defense--Military Programs	$727B	$776B	$826B	$868B	$911B	11.6%	12.6%	12.2%	12.4%	12.4%	2.7%	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	2.9%	$9B	$49B	$50B	$42B	$37B	1.3%	6.8%	6.5%	5.1%	4.3%
Total--Department of Health and Human Services	$1,643B	$1,709B	$1,721B	$1,884B	$1,920B	26.2%	27.9%	25.5%	26.9%	26.2%	6.1%	6.0%	5.8%	6.0%	6.0%	$176B	$66B	$12B	$164B	$107B	12.0%	4.0%	0.7%	9.5%	5.9%
Total--Social Security Administration	$1,282B	$1,416B	$1,520B	$1,647B	$1,707B	20.4%	23.1%	22.5%	23.5%	23.3%	4.8%	5.0%	5.1%	5.2%	5.4%	$90B	$134B	$103B	$127B	$86B	7.5%	10.5%	7.3%	8.3%	5.3%
Total--Interest on Treasury Debt Securities (Gross)	$718B	$879B	$1,133B	$1,216B	$1,259B	11.4%	14.3%	16.8%	17.3%	17.2%	2.7%	3.1%	3.8%	3.9%	4.0%	$155B	$162B	$254B	$83B	$86B	27.6%	22.5%	28.9%	7.3%	7.3%
Total--Department of Agriculture	$245B	$229B	$203B	$227B	$229B	3.9%	3.7%	3.0%	3.2%	3.1%	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	$10B	$-16B	$-25B	$24B	$-14B	4.3%	-6.7%	-11.1%	11.8%	-5.6%
Total--Department of Education	$639B	$-41B	$268B	$35B	$132B	10.2%	-0.7%	4.0%	0.5%	1.8%	2.4%	-0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.4%	$379B	$-680B	$309B	$-234B	$-16B	145.6%	-106.4%	-752.8%	-87.1%	-10.8%
Total--Department of Veterans Affairs	$274B	$301B	$325B	$377B	$406B	4.4%	4.9%	4.8%	5.4%	5.5%	1.0%	1.1%	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	$40B	$27B	$24B	$52B	$41B	17.1%	9.9%	8.0%	15.9%	11.2%
Total--Department of Transportation	$114B	$110B	$117B	$128B	$110B	1.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	1.5%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	$9B	$-4B	$8B	$10B	$-3B	8.4%	-3.5%	6.9%	8.7%	-2.4%
Total--Department of Labor	$52B	$88B	$66B	$50B	$59B	0.8%	1.4%	1.0%	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	$-353B	$36B	$-22B	$-15B	$-0B	-87.2%	69.2%	-25.0%	-23.3%	-0.8%
Total--Department of Homeland Security	$81B	$89B	$89B	$115B	$94B	1.3%	1.5%	1.3%	1.6%	1.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	$-10B	$8B	$0B	$26B	$-25B	-11.2%	10.1%	0.3%	29.1%	-21.1%
Total--Department of Justice	$40B	$44B	$44B	$45B	$45B	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$0B	$5B	$-0B	$1B	$0B	0.9%	11.9%	-0.7%	2.2%	0.7%
Total--Department of Housing and Urban Development	$29B	$55B	$52B	$51B	$68B	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	$-2B	$26B	$-3B	$-1B	$-2B	-7.8%	88.3%	-5.8%	-2.8%	-2.2%
Total--Department of Energy	$22B	$34B	$49B	$52B	$51B	0.4%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	$-11B	$12B	$15B	$3B	$-0B	-33.4%	53.4%	43.3%	6.0%	-0.3%
Total--Department of Commerce	$12B	$12B	$15B	$30B	$14B	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	$-1B	$0B	$3B	$15B	$-15B	-10.7%	2.7%	23.1%	100.3%	-51.6%
Total--International Assistance Programs	$36B	$36B	$36B	$17B	$22B	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$16B	$0B	$-0B	$-18B	$-4B	78.6%	0.7%	-0.7%	-51.7%	-15.7%
Total--National Aeronautics and Space Administration	$23B	$25B	$25B	$25B	$24B	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$1B	$2B	$-0B	$-0B	$-1B	3.7%	9.7%	-1.2%	-1.8%	-3.1%
Total--Environmental Protection Agency	$9B	$13B	$14B	$37B	$17B	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	$1B	$3B	$1B	$23B	$-34B	11.7%	35.6%	8.8%	169.9%	-67.1%
Total--Undistributed Offsetting Receipts	$-418B	$-301B	$-331B	$-338B	$-362B	-6.7%	-4.9%	-4.9%	-4.8%	-4.9%	-1.6%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%	$-145B	$117B	$-29B	$-7B	$-25B	53.0%	-28.0%	9.8%	2.2%	7.5%
All Other Outlays (Residual)	$745B	$660B	$579B	$545B	$622B	11.9%	10.8%	8.6%	7.8%	8.5%	2.8%	2.3%	1.9%	1.7%	2.0%	$-909B	$-84B	$-82B	$-34B	$-23B	-55.0%	-11.3%	-12.4%	-5.9%	-3.6%
Federal Deficit (Receipts - Outlays)	$-1,375B	$-1,695B	$-1,833B	$-1,775B	$-1,635B	-21.9%	-27.6%	-27.1%	-25.3%	-22.3%	-5.1%	-6.0%	-6.1%	-5.6%	-5.1%	$1,397B	$-320B	$-138B	$57B	$141B	-50.4%	23.2%	8.1%	-3.1%	-7.9%
True Interest Expense (% of Receipts)	$4,369B	$4,780B	$5,200B	$5,615B	$5,796B	89.2%	107.7%	105.7%	107.3%	101.8%	16.3%	16.8%	17.4%	17.9%	18.2%	$430B	$411B	$420B	$415B	$316B	10.9%	9.4%	8.8%	8.0%	5.8%

Receipts

Monthly Treasury Statement receipt line items with amount, YoY, FYTD YoY, and share-of-total views.

Receipt Line Item Dashboard - 2026-04-30

Line item	Month ($B/$T)	Month YoY	FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY	Share
Total Receipts	$837.3B	-1.5%	$3.32T	6.7%	100.0%
Individual Income Taxes	$515.1B	-4.1%	$1.76T	4.7%	61.5%
Corporation Income Taxes	$82.6B	-11.8%	$198.6B	-22.2%	9.9%
Employment and General Retirement (Off-Budget)	$140.5B	6.5%	$792.2B	5.8%	16.8%
Employment and General Retirement (On-Budget)	$43.7B	7.4%	$249.4B	4.2%	5.2%
Customs Duties	$22.1B	41.5%	$188.6B	218.5%	2.6%
Excise Taxes	$13.4B	8.3%	$58.6B	-1.4%	1.6%
Estate and Gift Taxes	$4.7B	26.0%	$24.5B	47.3%	0.6%
Miscellaneous Receipts	$3.2B	-5.9%	$18.3B	-12.7%	0.4%

Receipt Fiscal-Year/YTD Heatmap: $B And Same-Period YoY

Current fiscal year compares the same fiscal months year over year; first displayed year uses the hidden prior fiscal year when available.

Line item	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Total Receipts	3,462.24.0%	3,420.0-1.2%	4,046.018.3%	4,896.121.0%	4,439.3-9.3%	4,918.710.8%	5,234.66.4%	3,320.16.7%
Individual Income Taxes	1,717.92.0%	1,608.7-6.4%	2,044.427.1%	2,632.128.8%	2,176.5-17.3%	2,426.111.5%	2,656.09.5%	1,760.64.7%
Corporation Income Taxes	230.212.5%	211.8-8.0%	371.875.5%	424.914.3%	419.6-1.2%	529.926.3%	452.1-14.7%	198.6-22.2%
Employment and General Retirement (Off-Budget)	914.37.0%	965.45.6%	952.3-1.4%	1,066.011.9%	1,193.812.0%	1,259.95.5%	1,283.71.9%	792.25.8%
Employment and General Retirement (On-Budget)	283.16.3%	296.24.6%	299.51.1%	344.815.1%	364.45.7%	393.17.9%	401.92.2%	249.44.2%
Customs Duties	70.871.4%	68.6-3.2%	80.016.7%	99.924.9%	80.3-19.6%	77.0-4.1%	194.9153.0%	188.6218.5%
Excise Taxes	98.94.1%	86.8-12.3%	75.3-13.3%	87.716.5%	75.8-13.6%	101.433.8%	105.94.4%	58.6-1.4%
Estate and Gift Taxes	16.7-27.5%	17.65.7%	27.154.0%	32.619.9%	33.73.4%	31.6-6.1%	29.5-6.8%	24.547.3%
Miscellaneous Receipts	84.6-23.4%	116.537.7%	133.314.4%	135.41.6%	39.0-71.2%	43.210.8%	47.911.1%	18.3-12.7%

Fiscal-Year Receipts, Outlays, And Balance

Current fiscal year is fiscal year-to-date from October 1 and compares against the same fiscal months last year.

Fiscal Year	Receipts ($B/$T)	Receipts YoY	Outlays ($B/$T)	Outlays YoY	Receipts - Outlays ($B/$T)
FY2017	$3.31T	1.5%	$3.98T	3.3%	$-665.7B
FY2018	$3.33T	0.4%	$4.11T	3.2%	$-779.0B
FY2019	$3.46T	4.0%	$4.45T	8.2%	$-984.4B
FY2020	$3.42T	-1.2%	$6.55T	47.3%	$-3.13T
FY2021	$4.05T	18.3%	$6.82T	4.1%	$-2.77T
FY2022	$4.90T	21.0%	$6.27T	-8.0%	$-1.38T
FY2023	$4.44T	-9.3%	$6.13T	-2.2%	$-1.70T
FY2024	$4.92T	10.8%	$6.75T	10.1%	$-1.83T
FY2025	$5.23T	6.4%	$7.01T	3.8%	$-1.78T
FY2026	$3.32T	6.7%	$4.27T	2.8%	$-953.6B

Outlays

Major outlay categories, net interest pressure, total spending, and YoY momentum.

Outlay Line Item Dashboard - 2026-04-30

Line item	Month ($B/$T)	Month YoY	FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY	Share
Total Outlays	$622.3B	5.2%	$4.27T	2.8%	100.0%
Department of Defense--Military Programs	$72.8B	9.7%	$531.3B	4.3%	11.7%
Department of Health and Human Services	$159.6B	2.1%	$1.12T	5.9%	25.6%
Social Security Administration	$145.0B	5.2%	$995.5B	5.3%	23.3%
Interest on Treasury Debt Securities (Gross)	$111.6B	9.8%	$734.2B	7.3%	17.9%
Department of Agriculture	$17.0B	-20.4%	$133.5B	-5.6%	2.7%
Department of Education	$6.9B	-5.4%	$76.9B	-10.8%	1.1%
Department of Veterans Affairs	$35.6B	27.9%	$237.0B	11.2%	5.7%

Core Spending Pressure - 2026-04-30

HHS is used as the API-available Medicare/Medicaid-heavy health-spending proxy in MTS table 3; gross interest is shown separately. The subtotal combines Social Security, HHS, Defense, and gross Treasury interest. Annualized share columns use fiscal YTD numerator and denominator from the same fiscal months, so they reconcile with the Apex memo line.

Line item	Month ($B/$T)	Month YoY	FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY	Month Share of Outlays	Month Share of Receipts	Annualized Share of Outlays	Annualized Share of Receipts
Social Security Administration	$145.0B	5.2%	$995.5B	5.3%	23.3%	17.3%	23.3%	30.0%
Health and Human Services (Medicare/Medicaid proxy)	$159.6B	2.1%	$1.12T	5.9%	25.6%	19.1%	26.2%	33.7%
Defense--Military Programs	$72.8B	9.7%	$531.3B	4.3%	11.7%	8.7%	12.4%	16.0%
Gross Interest on Treasury Debt	$111.6B	9.8%	$734.2B	7.3%	17.9%	13.3%	17.2%	22.1%
Core Spending Pressure Total	$489.0B	5.8%	$3.38T	5.8%	78.6%	58.4%	79.1%	101.8%

Outlay Fiscal-Year/YTD Heatmap: $B And Same-Period YoY

Current fiscal year compares the same fiscal months year over year; first displayed year uses the hidden prior fiscal year when available.

Line item	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Total Outlays	4,446.68.2%	6,551.947.3%	6,818.24.1%	6,271.5-8.0%	6,134.4-2.2%	6,751.610.1%	7,010.03.8%	4,273.72.8%
Department of Defense--Military Programs	654.08.9%	690.45.6%	717.63.9%	726.61.3%	775.96.8%	826.36.5%	868.45.1%	531.34.3%
Department of Health and Human Services	1,213.88.3%	1,504.023.9%	1,466.7-2.5%	1,642.912.0%	1,708.54.0%	1,720.60.7%	1,884.39.5%	1,120.05.9%
Social Security Administration	1,101.86.0%	1,153.94.7%	1,192.53.3%	1,282.17.5%	1,416.310.5%	1,519.77.3%	1,646.58.3%	995.55.3%
Interest on Treasury Debt Securities (Gross)	572.99.8%	522.7-8.8%	562.47.6%	717.627.6%	879.322.5%	1,133.028.9%	1,215.67.3%	734.27.3%
Department of Agriculture	150.19.8%	184.222.7%	235.227.7%	245.24.3%	228.9-6.7%	203.4-11.1%	227.411.8%	133.5-5.6%
Department of Education	104.463.8%	204.495.9%	260.427.4%	639.4145.6%	-41.1-106.4%	268.4-752.8%	34.7-87.1%	76.9-10.8%
Department of Veterans Affairs	199.611.8%	218.49.4%	233.87.0%	273.917.1%	301.09.9%	325.08.0%	376.615.9%	237.011.2%

Weekly Receipts

Daily Treasury Statement deposits aggregated weekly for a high-frequency read on withholding, corporate taxes, and non-withheld income taxes.

Weekly Treasury Tax Deposits - 2026-05-29

Line item	Week ($B/$T)	WoW	YoY	4W Sum ($B/$T)	4W YoY
Taxes - Withheld Individual/FICA	$46.7B	-37.3%	-9.2%	$234.4B	3.2%

Withheld Individual/FICA Taxes: FY2026 Week-By-Week Labor-Income Proxy

Week End	FY Week	Withheld/FICA Week ($B/$T)	Week YoY	Withheld/FICA FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY
2025-11-07	6	$74.1B	37.1%	$373.6B	3.9%
2025-11-14	7	$51.8B	1.3%	$425.4B	3.6%
2025-11-21	8	$74.3B	7.1%	$499.7B	4.1%
2025-11-28	9	$62.0B	3.4%	$561.7B	4.0%
2025-12-05	10	$71.1B	4.2%	$632.8B	4.0%
2025-12-12	11	$59.1B	-0.8%	$691.8B	3.6%
2025-12-19	12	$89.8B	-4.2%	$781.6B	2.7%
2025-12-26	13	$70.7B	6.5%	$852.3B	3.0%
2026-01-02	14	$97.1B	1.3%	$949.4B	2.8%
2026-01-09	15	$65.5B	18.4%	$1.01T	3.7%
2026-01-16	16	$73.7B	3.6%	$1.09T	3.7%
2026-01-23	17	$58.0B	-1.5%	$1.15T	3.4%
2026-01-30	18	$61.7B	6.2%	$1.21T	3.5%
2026-02-06	19	$89.2B	4.6%	$1.30T	3.6%
2026-02-13	20	$59.4B	6.5%	$1.36T	3.7%
2026-02-20	21	$88.5B	1.6%	$1.45T	3.6%
2026-02-27	22	$68.2B	7.5%	$1.51T	3.8%
2026-03-06	23	$103.5B	5.4%	$1.62T	3.9%
2026-03-13	24	$78.2B	6.6%	$1.70T	4.0%
2026-03-20	25	$101.0B	3.1%	$1.80T	3.9%
2026-03-27	26	$60.8B	6.8%	$1.86T	4.0%
2026-04-03	27	$90.1B	7.9%	$1.95T	4.2%
2026-04-10	28	$51.8B	-0.9%	$2.00T	4.1%
2026-04-17	29	$75.3B	-3.2%	$2.07T	3.8%
2026-04-24	30	$54.1B	14.9%	$2.13T	4.0%
2026-05-01	31	$79.5B	1.1%	$2.21T	3.9%
2026-05-08	32	$58.9B	15.7%	$2.27T	4.2%
2026-05-15	33	$54.3B	-18.3%	$2.32T	3.5%
2026-05-22	34	$74.6B	27.6%	$2.40T	4.2%
2026-05-29	35	$46.7B	-9.2%	$2.44T	3.9%

Debt & Presidency

Debt growth is grouped by presidency using explicit term-date mappings; the validation panel warns when future terms need to be added.

Debt Service Pressure

Gross interest on Treasury debt compared with total receipts. This shows how much federal revenue is being absorbed by debt service.

Fiscal Year	Gross Interest FYTD	Total Receipts FYTD	Interest / Receipts	Interest FYTD YoY
FY2021	$562.4B	$4.05T	13.9%	7.6%
FY2022	$717.6B	$4.90T	14.7%	27.6%
FY2023	$879.3B	$4.44T	19.8%	22.5%
FY2024	$1.13T	$4.92T	23.0%	28.9%
FY2025	$1.22T	$5.23T	23.2%	7.3%
FY2026	$734.2B	$3.32T	22.1%	7.3%

Deficit Impulse

Positive impulse means the fiscal deficit is wider than the comparable prior-year fiscal period; negative impulse means the deficit is narrowing.

Fiscal Year	Current FYTD Deficit	Prior FYTD Deficit	Impulse ($)	Impulse %
FY2021	$2.77T	$3.13T	$-359.7B	-11.5%
FY2022	$1.38T	$2.78T	$-1.40T	-50.4%
FY2023	$1.70T	$1.38T	$319.7B	23.2%
FY2024	$1.83T	$1.70T	$137.6B	8.1%
FY2025	$1.78T	$1.82T	$-41.4B	-2.3%
FY2026	$953.6B	$1.05T	$-95.2B	-9.1%

Public Debt Change By Presidency

President	Start	Latest/End	First Debt ($B/$T)	Last Debt ($B/$T)	Change
George W. Bush	2001-01-22	2009-01-16	$5.73T	$10.63T	85.6%
Barack Obama	2009-01-20	2017-01-19	$10.63T	$19.94T	87.7%
Donald Trump I	2017-01-20	2021-01-19	$19.95T	$27.75T	39.1%
Joe Biden	2021-01-20	2025-01-17	$27.75T	$36.21T	30.5%
Donald Trump II	2025-01-21	2026-05-28	$36.22T	$39.18T	8.2%

Foreign Demand

Treasury TIC Major Foreign Holders: country holdings, official holdings, and changes in foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities.

Foreign Demand Dashboard - TIC Major Foreign Holders

Treasury TIC Table 5, reported monthly in billions. Shows official-sector aggregates plus the top 10 country holders by latest Treasury holdings.

Holder	Latest Holdings	1M Change	3M Change	12M Change
Grand Total	$9.35T	$-138B	$82B	$294B
Of Which: Foreign Official	$3.90T	$-109B	$25B	$-21B
Of Which: Foreign Official Treasury Bills	$441.0B	$-12B	$52B	$21B
Of Which: Foreign Official T-Bonds & Notes	$3.46T	$-96B	$-28B	$-42B
Japan	$1.19T	$-48B	$6B	$61B
United Kingdom	$926.9B	$30B	$64B	$148B
China, Mainland	$652.3B	$-41B	$-31B	$-113B
Cayman Islands	$459.4B	$16B	$38B	$6B
Belgium	$454.0B	$-1B	$-23B	$52B
Canada	$439.4B	$-7B	$-29B	$13B
Luxembourg	$432.0B	$-14B	$-2B	$20B
France	$393.0B	$-2B	$24B	$30B
Ireland	$355.2B	$5B	$14B	$26B
Taiwan	$300.8B	$-13B	$-10B	$-7B

Top 10 Country Holder Panels

The first row shows aggregate foreign-holder demand across reported countries, followed by each top-10 country as three separate five-year panels: Treasury holdings, 3-month rolling demand change, and 12-month rolling demand change. Countries are ranked by latest reported holdings.

Foreign Equity Holdings

Treasury TIC SLT Table 1: country-level foreign holdings of U.S. corporate equity, net sales, valuation effects, and rolling demand changes.

Foreign Equity Holdings Dashboard - TIC SLT Table 1

Treasury TIC Table 1, reported monthly in millions and converted to billions. Shows aggregate foreign holdings plus the top 10 country holders of U.S. corporate equity. Equity Mix is each holder's own U.S. equity allocation inside its total U.S. long-term securities holdings, so rows do not sum to 100%. Net sales are flow-like TIC activity; valuation change separates market-price effects from position changes when available.

Holder	Latest Equity Holdings	1M Change	3M Change	12M Change	Equity Mix Of LT Holdings	Net Sales	Valuation Change
All Countries	$21.15T	$-1,015B	$-940B	$3,505B	59.6%	$11B	$-1,017B
Cayman Islands	$2.31T	$-47B	$-59B	$374B	71.7%	$30B	$-61B
Canada	$2.25T	$-125B	$-101B	$389B	73.0%	$-21B	$-128B
United Kingdom	$2.23T	$-110B	$-109B	$422B	60.9%	$-1B	$-139B
Ireland	$1.65T	$-87B	$-46B	$342B	72.5%	$1B	$-90B
Luxembourg	$1.33T	$-77B	$-87B	$114B	51.6%	$-12B	$-70B
Japan	$1.22T	$-54B	$-52B	$186B	42.9%	$8B	$-62B
Switzerland	$984.2B	$-56B	$-48B	$140B	72.3%	$-3B	$-53B
Singapore	$882.7B	$-1B	$-11B	$232B	69.0%	$29B	$-30B
Norway	$882.1B	$-49B	$-76B	$159B	73.5%	$-3B	$-46B
Australia	$752.5B	$-34B	$-20B	$119B	85.6%	$-2B	$-31B

Top 10 Foreign Equity Holder Panels

The first row shows total foreign U.S. equity holdings, followed by each top-10 country as three separate five-year panels: holdings, 3-month rolling change, and 12-month rolling change.

Issuance & Maturities

Auction data tracks issuance mix, front-end concentration, and the maturity wall by security type. Bid-to-cover equals total bids received divided by securities awarded; higher readings usually indicate stronger auction demand, while weak readings can signal poorer absorption of Treasury supply.

Auction Demand Dashboard

Uses fields available in Treasury FiscalData: offering amount, bid-to-cover, high yield, and reopening flag. Dealer takedown and indirect-bidder share are not available in the current endpoint.

Auction Date	Security	Offering	Bid/Cover	Vs Type Median	High Yield	Reopening
2026-06-02	Bill 6-Week	$75.0B	nan	nan	nan%	Yes
2026-06-01	Bill 26-Week	$77.0B	nan	nan	nan%	No
2026-06-01	Bill 13-Week	$89.0B	nan	nan	nan%	Yes
2026-05-28	Bill 8-Week	$80.0B	3.08	0.03	nan%	Yes
2026-05-28	Bill 4-Week	$85.0B	2.76	-0.29	nan%	Yes
2026-05-28	Note 7-Year	$44.0B	2.52	-0.06	4.290%	No
2026-05-27	Note 1-Year 11-Month	$28.0B	3.49	0.91	nan%	Yes
2026-05-27	Note 5-Year	$70.0B	2.34	-0.24	4.182%	No
2026-05-27	Bill 17-Week	$69.0B	3.01	-0.04	nan%	No
2026-05-26	Note 2-Year	$69.0B	2.64	0.06	4.071%	No
2026-05-26	Bill 13-Week	$89.0B	3.08	0.03	nan%	Yes
2026-05-26	Bill 26-Week	$77.0B	2.77	-0.28	nan%	Yes
2026-05-26	Bill 6-Week	$85.0B	2.71	-0.34	nan%	Yes
2026-05-21	Bill 27-Day	$25.0B	4.60	1.55	nan%	Yes
2026-05-21	Bill 4-Week	$100.0B	2.60	-0.45	nan%	Yes
2026-05-21	Note 9-Year 8-Month	$19.0B	2.52	-0.06	2.169%	Yes
2026-05-21	Bill 8-Week	$95.0B	2.77	-0.28	nan%	Yes
2026-05-20	Bond 20-Year	$16.0B	2.55	0.13	5.122%	No

Auction Demand: Bid-To-Cover By Security Type

Each panel separates auction demand by security type. Dots are individual auctions, the gold line is a short rolling average, and the dotted line is the security-type median.

Latest Issuance Mix - 2026-06-30

Security type	Amount ($B/$T)	Share
Bill	$475.0B	70.5%
Note	$183.0B	27.2%
Bond	$16.0B	2.4%

Forward Treasury Estimates

Announced future issuance and maturity schedules from Treasury auction data. These rows update when the script is run with --refresh.

Treasury Supply Calendar: Next 90 Days

Weekly announced issuance grouped by issue date. This is the cleanest near-term supply pressure view from existing Treasury auction data.

Week Ending	Bill	Note	Bond	TIPS	FRN	Total
2026-06-05	$475.0B	$183.0B	$16.0B	$0	$0	$674.0B

Forward Announced Issuance Calendar

Issue Date	Type	Term	Maturity	Offering ($B/$T)	Reopening
2026-06-01	Bond	20-Year	2046-05-15	$16.0B	No
2026-06-01	Note	5-Year	2031-05-31	$70.0B	No
2026-06-01	Note	7-Year	2033-05-31	$44.0B	No
2026-06-01	Note	2-Year	2028-05-31	$69.0B	No
2026-06-02	Bill	4-Week	2026-06-30	$85.0B	Yes
2026-06-02	Bill	8-Week	2026-07-28	$80.0B	Yes
2026-06-02	Bill	17-Week	2026-09-29	$69.0B	No
2026-06-04	Bill	6-Week	2026-07-16	$75.0B	Yes
2026-06-04	Bill	13-Week	2026-09-03	$89.0B	Yes
2026-06-04	Bill	26-Week	2026-12-03	$77.0B	No

Forward Maturity Wall: Next 16 Quarters ($B)

Quarter	Bill	Note	Bond	Total
2026-06-30	6,504.0	789.0	0.0	7,293.0
2026-09-30	3,538.0	796.0	10.0	4,344.0
2026-12-31	970.0	809.0	10.0	1,789.0
2027-03-31	150.0	808.0	24.0	982.0
2027-06-30	100.0	826.0	0.0	926.0
2027-09-30	0.0	841.0	10.0	851.0
2027-12-31	0.0	867.0	20.0	887.0
2028-03-31	0.0	883.0	14.0	897.0
2028-06-30	0.0	794.0	16.0	810.0
2028-09-30	0.0	605.0	10.0	615.0
2028-12-31	0.0	633.0	10.0	643.0
2029-03-31	0.0	626.0	24.0	650.0
2029-06-30	0.0	571.0	19.0	590.0
2029-09-30	0.0	434.0	10.0	444.0
2029-12-31	0.0	436.0	0.0	436.0
2030-03-31	0.0	429.0	0.0	429.0

Validation

Source freshness, units, line mapping coverage, and reconciliation checks.

Status	Check	Detail
PASS	debt_to_penny API rows loaded	8,317 rows; latest 2026-05-28; endpoint /v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny
PASS	dts_cash_flows API rows loaded	469,149 rows; latest 2026-05-28; endpoint /v1/accounting/dts/deposits_withdrawals_operating_cash
PASS	mts_summary API rows loaded	7,666 rows; latest 2026-04-30; endpoint /v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_3
PASS	mts_receipts_detail API rows loaded	7,377 rows; latest 2026-04-30; endpoint /v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_4
PASS	mts_outlays_detail API rows loaded	106,949 rows; latest 2026-04-30; endpoint /v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_5
PASS	auctions API rows loaded	10,988 rows; latest 2026-06-04; endpoint /v1/accounting/od/auctions_query
PASS	average_interest_rates API rows loaded	4,945 rows; latest 2026-04-30; endpoint /v2/accounting/od/avg_interest_rates
PASS	gdp API rows loaded	317 quarterly FRED nominal GDP rows; latest 2026-01-01
WARN	ssa_trust_fund_ops official .gov rows loaded	0 quarterly SSA OACT rows parsed from .gov HTML; latest n/a; source reports $ billions
PASS	tic_major_foreign_holders Treasury TIC rows loaded	5,328 TIC holder-month rows parsed; latest 2026-05-27; source reports $ billions
PASS	tic_foreign_equity_holders TIC rows loaded	7,800 TIC equity holder-month rows parsed; latest 2026-03-01; source reports $ billions
PASS	Debt to the Penny latest subtotal reconciliation	Latest public + intragov vs total debt difference: $0.00
PASS	mts_receipts expected line mappings	All tracked lines found
PASS	mts_outlays expected line mappings	All tracked lines found
PASS	mts_receipts_detail expanded matrix line mappings	All expanded table lines found
PASS	mts_outlays_detail expanded matrix line mappings	All expanded table lines found
PASS	President mapping horizon	Latest data 2026-05-29; mapped through 2029-01-20
PASS	Forward Treasury estimates/update set	10 future issue rows; maturity wall through 2056-06-30