Fiscal Monitor

Executive Summary

Latest actual operating data through 2026-09-30; forward maturity horizon through 2056-09-30; chart window starts 2017-01-01.

Fiscal Monitor

A strategist-grade view of fiscal impulse, tax receipts, spending pressure, debt burden, issuance composition, and maturity/refunding risk.

Total Public Debt$40.07T

Latest: 2026-09-24

Debt YoY6.9%

Daily Debt to the Penny

Receipts FYTD YoY3.3%

MTS total receipts

Outlays FYTD YoY2.2%

MTS total outlays

Front-End Issuance92.8%

Bills and <=1Y share

Executive Fiscal Risk Score 64

Elevated Watch

Fiscal Risk Component Dashboard

Higher component scores indicate more pressure from debt growth, deficit widening, interest burden, near-term supply, or weaker auction demand.

Component	Score	Latest Read	Interpretation
Debt Growth	56	6.9%	Debt to the Penny YoY
Deficit Impulse	27	$-7.7B	FYTD deficit widening vs same fiscal-month last year
Debt Service	100	26.2%	Gross interest FYTD as % of receipts
Supply Pressure	79	$765.0B	Announced issuance next 30 days
Auction Demand	59	-0.12	Recent bid-to-cover vs full-sample median

How The Fiscal Risk Score Is Computed

The headline score is the equal-weight average of five 0-100 component scores. A reading near 0 means the component is relatively benign, 50 is mid-range pressure, and 100 is elevated stress. If a component is unavailable, the score averages the available components only.

Component	Input	Scoring Range	Interpretation
Debt Growth	Debt to the Penny YoY growth	3% = low pressure; 10% = high pressure	Higher debt growth raises the score.
Deficit Impulse	Current FYTD deficit minus comparable prior-year FYTD deficit	-$250B = easing; +$650B = high pressure	Wider deficits raise the score.
Debt Service	Gross interest FYTD as a percent of total receipts FYTD	8% = low pressure; 22% = high pressure	More revenue absorbed by interest raises the score.
Supply Pressure	Announced Treasury issuance over the next 30 days	$250B = low pressure; $900B = high pressure	Larger near-term supply raises the score.
Auction Demand	Recent bid-to-cover versus the full-sample type median	-0.45 = weak; +0.35 = strong	This component is inverted, so weaker demand raises the score.

Operating latest date

The latest date across actual debt, Daily Treasury Statement receipts, Monthly Treasury Statement, average-rate, and GDP inputs. It excludes future maturity dates.

Forward maturity horizon

The farthest maturity date implied by Treasury auction records. This can extend decades into the future and should not be read as latest actual fiscal data.

Receipts and outlays

Monthly Treasury Statement table 3 line items. Amount charts use monthly values; YoY charts compare the same line item against the month one year earlier.

Weekly tax deposits

Daily Treasury Statement deposits aggregated to Friday weeks. This is the high-frequency tax-receipt pulse, including withheld individual/FICA, corporate, and non-withheld taxes.

FYTD YoY

Current fiscal year-to-date value divided by prior fiscal year-to-date value minus one, using Treasury-reported prior FYTD fields where available.

Issuance share

Monthly auction offering amount for each security type divided by total monthly offering amount across Bills, Notes, Bonds, TIPS, and FRNs.

Debt to GDP

Total public debt outstanding divided by FRED nominal GDP, series GDP, in current dollars at a seasonally adjusted annual rate. Each debt date uses the latest available GDP quarter.

True Interest Expense

MTS gross interest on Treasury debt securities. In the Apex matrix and true-interest charts, its share is shown explicitly as a percent of total receipts. This is separate from the broader core spending pressure basket.

Social Security trust funds

Official SSA OACT quarterly OASDI data. Trust fund asset reserves are quarter-end levels; rolling 12-month income and cost are trailing four-quarter sums.

Forward estimates

Future issue dates, announced offering amounts, and maturity-wall schedules from Treasury auction data. Running with --update or --refresh repulls these estimates.

Fiscal Risk Score

Composite 0-100 stress read across debt growth, deficit impulse, debt-service burden, announced 30-day supply, and recent auction bid-to-cover quality.

Auction Demand

Bid-to-cover equals total bids received divided by securities awarded. Higher readings usually indicate stronger demand/absorption; weaker readings can flag supply indigestion.

Foreign Demand

Treasury TIC Table 3 supplies country-level Treasury holder history back to 2020. TIC Table 5 supplies Grand Total and Foreign Official aggregate lines for the latest available monthly panel; those are not the same as the Fed/FRED custody proxy.

Foreign Equity Holdings

Treasury TIC SLT Table 1 supplies country-level foreign holdings of U.S. corporate equity, including holdings, net sales, and valuation-change fields. The equity section separates market gains/losses from buyer/seller flow where available.

Expanded Fiscal Policy Monitor Matrix

API-calculated only. Dollar columns in this matrix are denominated in billions ($B). Current fiscal year is annualized from fiscal YTD months starting October 1 and compared with the same fiscal months last year. Share of Section Total means revenue rows are percent of Federal Revenue, expenditure rows are percent of Federal Expenditures, and balance rows are percent of receipts where applicable. Outlays include an All Other residual row so displayed categories reconcile to total outlays. True Interest Expense is an analytic memo line, not a component of the reconciliation totals; its share cells are calculated as a percent of total receipts.

Apex Macro US Fiscal Policy Monitor	Annualized Nominal Fiscal YTD Sum ($B)					Share of Section Total					Percent of Nominal GDP					YoY $ Change ($B)					YoY % Change
	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026 (Annualized)
Federal Revenue	$4,896B	$4,439B	$4,919B	$5,235B	$5,286B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	18.3%	15.6%	16.5%	16.7%	16.3%	$850B	$-457B	$479B	$316B	$169B	21.0%	-9.3%	10.8%	6.4%	3.3%
Total -- Individual Income Taxes	$2,632B	$2,176B	$2,426B	$2,656B	$2,780B	53.8%	49.0%	49.3%	50.7%	52.6%	9.8%	7.7%	8.1%	8.5%	8.6%	$588B	$-456B	$250B	$230B	$208B	28.8%	-17.3%	11.5%	9.5%	8.1%
Corporation Income Taxes	$425B	$420B	$530B	$452B	$322B	8.7%	9.5%	10.8%	8.6%	6.1%	1.6%	1.5%	1.8%	1.4%	1.0%	$53B	$-5B	$110B	$-78B	$-103B	14.3%	-1.2%	26.3%	-14.7%	-24.3%
Customs Duties	$100B	$80B	$77B	$195B	$183B	2.0%	1.8%	1.6%	3.7%	3.5%	0.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.6%	0.6%	$20B	$-20B	$-3B	$118B	$2B	24.9%	-19.6%	-4.1%	153.0%	1.3%
Estate and Gift Taxes	$33B	$34B	$32B	$29B	$39B	0.7%	0.8%	0.6%	0.6%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$5B	$1B	$-2B	$-2B	$10B	19.9%	3.4%	-6.1%	-6.8%	36.4%
Total -- Excise Taxes	$88B	$76B	$101B	$106B	$101B	1.8%	1.7%	2.1%	2.0%	1.9%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	$12B	$-12B	$26B	$5B	$-0B	16.5%	-13.6%	33.8%	4.4%	-0.3%
Total -- Miscellaneous Receipts	$135B	$39B	$43B	$48B	$47B	2.8%	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%	0.9%	0.5%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	$2B	$-96B	$4B	$5B	$-2B	1.6%	-71.2%	10.8%	11.1%	-3.4%
Total -- Social Insurance and Retirement Receipts	$1,484B	$1,614B	$1,710B	$1,748B	$1,814B	30.3%	36.4%	34.8%	33.4%	34.3%	5.5%	5.7%	5.7%	5.6%	5.6%	$169B	$131B	$95B	$39B	$53B	12.9%	8.8%	5.9%	2.3%	3.0%
Federal Expenditures	$6,272B	$6,134B	$6,752B	$7,010B	$7,430B	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	100.0%	23.4%	21.6%	22.6%	22.3%	22.9%	$-547B	$-137B	$617B	$258B	$160B	-8.0%	-2.2%	10.1%	3.8%	2.2%
Total--Department of Defense--Military Programs	$727B	$776B	$826B	$868B	$908B	11.6%	12.6%	12.2%	12.4%	12.2%	2.7%	2.7%	2.8%	2.8%	2.8%	$9B	$49B	$50B	$42B	$39B	1.3%	6.8%	6.5%	5.1%	4.5%
Total--Department of Health and Human Services	$1,643B	$1,709B	$1,721B	$1,884B	$1,988B	26.2%	27.9%	25.5%	26.9%	26.8%	6.1%	6.0%	5.8%	6.0%	6.1%	$176B	$66B	$12B	$164B	$57B	12.0%	4.0%	0.7%	9.5%	3.0%
Total--Social Security Administration	$1,282B	$1,416B	$1,520B	$1,647B	$1,731B	20.4%	23.1%	22.5%	23.5%	23.3%	4.8%	5.0%	5.1%	5.2%	5.3%	$90B	$134B	$103B	$127B	$81B	7.5%	10.5%	7.3%	8.3%	4.9%
Total--Interest on Treasury Debt Securities (Gross)	$718B	$879B	$1,133B	$1,216B	$1,383B	11.4%	14.3%	16.8%	17.3%	18.6%	2.7%	3.1%	3.8%	3.9%	4.3%	$155B	$162B	$254B	$83B	$156B	27.6%	22.5%	28.9%	7.3%	12.7%
Total--Department of Agriculture	$245B	$229B	$203B	$227B	$221B	3.9%	3.7%	3.0%	3.2%	3.0%	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	$10B	$-16B	$-25B	$24B	$-13B	4.3%	-6.7%	-11.1%	11.8%	-5.6%
Total--Department of Education	$639B	$-41B	$268B	$35B	$67B	10.2%	-0.7%	4.0%	0.5%	0.9%	2.4%	-0.1%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%	$379B	$-680B	$309B	$-234B	$-86B	145.6%	-106.4%	-752.8%	-87.1%	-56.2%
Total--Department of Veterans Affairs	$274B	$301B	$325B	$377B	$431B	4.4%	4.9%	4.8%	5.4%	5.8%	1.0%	1.1%	1.1%	1.2%	1.3%	$40B	$27B	$24B	$52B	$39B	17.1%	9.9%	8.0%	15.9%	9.9%
Total--Department of Transportation	$114B	$110B	$117B	$128B	$120B	1.8%	1.8%	1.7%	1.8%	1.6%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	$9B	$-4B	$8B	$10B	$0B	8.4%	-3.5%	6.9%	8.7%	0.3%
Total--Department of Labor	$52B	$88B	$66B	$50B	$56B	0.8%	1.4%	1.0%	0.7%	0.8%	0.2%	0.3%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	$-353B	$36B	$-22B	$-15B	$-3B	-87.2%	69.2%	-25.0%	-23.3%	-5.4%
Total--Department of Homeland Security	$81B	$89B	$89B	$115B	$107B	1.3%	1.5%	1.3%	1.6%	1.4%	0.3%	0.3%	0.3%	0.4%	0.3%	$-10B	$8B	$0B	$26B	$-7B	-11.2%	10.1%	0.3%	29.1%	-6.0%
Total--Department of Justice	$40B	$44B	$44B	$45B	$45B	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.6%	0.6%	0.1%	0.2%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$0B	$5B	$-0B	$1B	$1B	0.9%	11.9%	-0.7%	2.2%	2.5%
Total--Department of Housing and Urban Development	$29B	$55B	$52B	$51B	$67B	0.5%	0.9%	0.8%	0.7%	0.9%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	$-2B	$26B	$-3B	$-1B	$17B	-7.8%	88.3%	-5.8%	-2.8%	33.5%
Total--Department of Energy	$22B	$34B	$49B	$52B	$52B	0.4%	0.6%	0.7%	0.7%	0.7%	0.1%	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	$-11B	$12B	$15B	$3B	$-0B	-33.4%	53.4%	43.3%	6.0%	-0.4%
Total--Department of Commerce	$12B	$12B	$15B	$30B	$14B	0.2%	0.2%	0.2%	0.4%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.0%	$-1B	$0B	$3B	$15B	$-17B	-10.7%	2.7%	23.1%	100.3%	-54.0%
Total--International Assistance Programs	$36B	$36B	$36B	$17B	$23B	0.6%	0.6%	0.5%	0.2%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$16B	$0B	$-0B	$-18B	$2B	78.6%	0.7%	-0.7%	-51.7%	11.2%
Total--National Aeronautics and Space Administration	$23B	$25B	$25B	$25B	$23B	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.4%	0.3%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	0.1%	$1B	$2B	$-0B	$-0B	$-1B	3.7%	9.7%	-1.2%	-1.8%	-4.7%
Total--Environmental Protection Agency	$9B	$13B	$14B	$37B	$17B	0.1%	0.2%	0.2%	0.5%	0.2%	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%	0.1%	$1B	$3B	$1B	$23B	$-21B	11.7%	35.6%	8.8%	169.9%	-55.0%
Total--Undistributed Offsetting Receipts	$-418B	$-301B	$-331B	$-338B	$-395B	-6.7%	-4.9%	-4.9%	-4.8%	-5.3%	-1.6%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.1%	-1.2%	$-145B	$117B	$-29B	$-7B	$-44B	53.0%	-28.0%	9.8%	2.2%	12.6%
All Other Outlays (Residual)	$745B	$660B	$579B	$545B	$572B	11.9%	10.8%	8.6%	7.8%	7.7%	2.8%	2.3%	1.9%	1.7%	1.8%	$-909B	$-84B	$-82B	$-34B	$-41B	-55.0%	-11.3%	-12.4%	-5.9%	-6.6%
Federal Deficit (Receipts - Outlays)	$-1,375B	$-1,695B	$-1,833B	$-1,775B	$-2,144B	-21.9%	-27.6%	-27.1%	-25.3%	-28.9%	-5.1%	-6.0%	-6.1%	-5.6%	-6.6%	$1,397B	$-320B	$-138B	$57B	$-369B	-50.4%	23.2%	8.1%	-3.1%	20.8%
True Interest Expense: Core Spending Pressure (% of Receipts)	$4,369B	$4,780B	$5,200B	$5,615B	$6,010B	89.2%	107.7%	105.7%	107.3%	113.7%	16.3%	16.8%	17.4%	17.9%	18.5%	$430B	$411B	$420B	$415B	$333B	10.9%	9.4%	8.8%	8.0%	5.9%

Receipts

Monthly Treasury Statement receipt line items with amount, YoY, FYTD YoY, and share-of-total views.

Receipt Line Item Dashboard - 2026-08-31

Line item	Month ($B/$T)	Month YoY	FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY	Share
Total Receipts	$360.0B	4.6%	$4.85T	3.3%	100.0%
Individual Income Taxes	$179.0B	16.9%	$2.55T	8.1%	49.7%
Corporation Income Taxes	$1.9B	-22.3%	$294.9B	-24.3%	0.5%
Employment and General Retirement (Off-Budget)	$103.7B	4.9%	$1.23T	3.9%	28.8%
Employment and General Retirement (On-Budget)	$31.7B	4.3%	$377.4B	2.1%	8.8%
Customs Duties	$12.8B	-56.5%	$167.3B	1.3%	3.6%
Excise Taxes	$8.3B	0.9%	$92.9B	-0.3%	2.3%
Estate and Gift Taxes	$2.0B	-13.1%	$36.0B	36.4%	0.6%
Miscellaneous Receipts	$15.3B	5.4%	$43.1B	-3.4%	4.3%

Receipt Fiscal-Year/YTD Heatmap: $B And Same-Period YoY

Current fiscal year compares the same fiscal months year over year; first displayed year uses the hidden prior fiscal year when available.

Line item	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Total Receipts	3,462.24.0%	3,420.0-1.2%	4,046.018.3%	4,896.121.0%	4,439.3-9.3%	4,918.710.8%	5,234.66.4%	4,845.53.3%
Individual Income Taxes	1,717.92.0%	1,608.7-6.4%	2,044.427.1%	2,632.128.8%	2,176.5-17.3%	2,426.111.5%	2,656.09.5%	2,548.08.1%
Corporation Income Taxes	230.212.5%	211.8-8.0%	371.875.5%	424.914.3%	419.6-1.2%	529.926.3%	452.1-14.7%	294.9-24.3%
Employment and General Retirement (Off-Budget)	914.37.0%	965.45.6%	952.3-1.4%	1,066.011.9%	1,193.812.0%	1,259.95.5%	1,283.71.9%	1,229.53.9%
Employment and General Retirement (On-Budget)	283.16.3%	296.24.6%	299.51.1%	344.815.1%	364.45.7%	393.17.9%	401.92.2%	377.42.1%
Customs Duties	70.871.4%	68.6-3.2%	80.016.7%	99.924.9%	80.3-19.6%	77.0-4.1%	194.9153.0%	167.31.3%
Excise Taxes	98.94.1%	86.8-12.3%	75.3-13.3%	87.716.5%	75.8-13.6%	101.433.8%	105.94.4%	92.9-0.3%
Estate and Gift Taxes	16.7-27.5%	17.65.7%	27.154.0%	32.619.9%	33.73.4%	31.6-6.1%	29.5-6.8%	36.036.4%
Miscellaneous Receipts	84.6-23.4%	116.537.7%	133.314.4%	135.41.6%	39.0-71.2%	43.210.8%	47.911.1%	43.1-3.4%

Fiscal-Year Receipts, Outlays, And Balance

Current fiscal year is fiscal year-to-date from October 1 and compares against the same fiscal months last year.

Fiscal Year	Receipts ($B/$T)	Receipts YoY	Outlays ($B/$T)	Outlays YoY	Receipts - Outlays ($B/$T)
FY2017	$3.31T	1.5%	$3.98T	3.3%	$-665.7B
FY2018	$3.33T	0.4%	$4.11T	3.2%	$-779.0B
FY2019	$3.46T	4.0%	$4.45T	8.2%	$-984.4B
FY2020	$3.42T	-1.2%	$6.55T	47.3%	$-3.13T
FY2021	$4.05T	18.3%	$6.82T	4.1%	$-2.77T
FY2022	$4.90T	21.0%	$6.27T	-8.0%	$-1.38T
FY2023	$4.44T	-9.3%	$6.13T	-2.2%	$-1.70T
FY2024	$4.92T	10.8%	$6.75T	10.1%	$-1.83T
FY2025	$5.23T	6.4%	$7.01T	3.8%	$-1.78T
FY2026	$4.85T	3.3%	$6.81T	2.2%	$-1.97T

Outlays

Major outlay categories, net interest pressure, total spending, and YoY momentum.

Outlay Line Item Dashboard - 2026-08-31

Line item	Month ($B/$T)	Month YoY	FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY	Share
Total Outlays	$526.8B	-23.5%	$6.81T	2.2%	100.0%
Department of Defense--Military Programs	$67.9B	-12.9%	$832.6B	4.5%	12.9%
Department of Health and Human Services	$97.5B	-54.2%	$1.82T	3.0%	18.5%
Social Security Administration	$141.7B	-1.7%	$1.59T	4.9%	26.9%
Interest on Treasury Debt Securities (Gross)	$97.8B	-12.3%	$1.27T	12.7%	18.6%
Department of Agriculture	$14.0B	-22.8%	$202.3B	-5.6%	2.7%
Department of Education	$8.4B	-1.7%	$61.3B	-56.2%	1.6%
Department of Veterans Affairs	$35.0B	-29.7%	$395.1B	9.9%	6.6%

Core Spending Pressure - 2026-08-31

HHS is used as the API-available Medicare/Medicaid-heavy health-spending proxy in MTS table 3; gross interest is shown separately. The subtotal combines Social Security, HHS, Defense, and gross Treasury interest. Annualized share columns use fiscal YTD numerator and denominator from the same fiscal months, so they reconcile with the Apex memo line.

Line item	Month ($B/$T)	Month YoY	FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY	Month Share of Outlays	Month Share of Receipts	Annualized Share of Outlays	Annualized Share of Receipts
Social Security Administration	$141.7B	-1.7%	$1.59T	4.9%	26.9%	39.4%	23.3%	32.7%
Health and Human Services (Medicare/Medicaid proxy)	$97.5B	-54.2%	$1.82T	3.0%	18.5%	27.1%	26.8%	37.6%
Defense--Military Programs	$67.9B	-12.9%	$832.6B	4.5%	12.9%	18.9%	12.2%	17.2%
Gross Interest on Treasury Debt	$97.8B	-12.3%	$1.27T	12.7%	18.6%	27.2%	18.6%	26.2%
Core Spending Pressure Total	$404.9B	-25.9%	$5.51T	5.9%	76.9%	112.5%	80.9%	113.7%

Outlay Fiscal-Year/YTD Heatmap: $B And Same-Period YoY

Current fiscal year compares the same fiscal months year over year; first displayed year uses the hidden prior fiscal year when available.

Line item	FY2019	FY2020	FY2021	FY2022	FY2023	FY2024	FY2025	FY2026
Total Outlays	4,446.68.2%	6,551.947.3%	6,818.24.1%	6,271.5-8.0%	6,134.4-2.2%	6,751.610.1%	7,010.03.8%	6,811.02.2%
Department of Defense--Military Programs	654.08.9%	690.45.6%	717.63.9%	726.61.3%	775.96.8%	826.36.5%	868.45.1%	832.64.5%
Department of Health and Human Services	1,213.88.3%	1,504.023.9%	1,466.7-2.5%	1,642.912.0%	1,708.54.0%	1,720.60.7%	1,884.39.5%	1,822.43.0%
Social Security Administration	1,101.86.0%	1,153.94.7%	1,192.53.3%	1,282.17.5%	1,416.310.5%	1,519.77.3%	1,646.58.3%	1,586.74.9%
Interest on Treasury Debt Securities (Gross)	572.99.8%	522.7-8.8%	562.47.6%	717.627.6%	879.322.5%	1,133.028.9%	1,215.67.3%	1,267.412.7%
Department of Agriculture	150.19.8%	184.222.7%	235.227.7%	245.24.3%	228.9-6.7%	203.4-11.1%	227.411.8%	202.3-5.6%
Department of Education	104.463.8%	204.495.9%	260.427.4%	639.4145.6%	-41.1-106.4%	268.4-752.8%	34.7-87.1%	61.3-56.2%
Department of Veterans Affairs	199.611.8%	218.49.4%	233.87.0%	273.917.1%	301.09.9%	325.08.0%	376.615.9%	395.19.9%

Weekly Receipts

Daily Treasury Statement deposits aggregated weekly for a high-frequency read on withholding, corporate taxes, and non-withheld income taxes.

Weekly Treasury Tax Deposits - 2026-09-25

Line item	Week ($B/$T)	WoW	YoY	4W Sum ($B/$T)	4W YoY
Taxes - Withheld Individual/FICA	$41.5B	-46.4%	-17.5%	$252.1B	1.7%

Withheld Individual/FICA Taxes: FY2026 Week-By-Week Labor-Income Proxy

Week End	FY Week	Withheld/FICA Week ($B/$T)	Week YoY	Withheld/FICA FYTD ($B/$T)	FYTD YoY
2026-03-06	23	$103.5B	5.4%	$1.62T	3.9%
2026-03-13	24	$78.2B	6.6%	$1.70T	4.0%
2026-03-20	25	$101.0B	3.1%	$1.80T	3.9%
2026-03-27	26	$60.8B	6.8%	$1.86T	4.0%
2026-04-03	27	$90.1B	7.9%	$1.95T	4.2%
2026-04-10	28	$51.8B	-0.9%	$2.00T	4.1%
2026-04-17	29	$75.3B	-3.2%	$2.07T	3.8%
2026-04-24	30	$54.1B	14.9%	$2.13T	4.0%
2026-05-01	31	$79.5B	1.1%	$2.21T	3.9%
2026-05-08	32	$58.9B	15.7%	$2.27T	4.2%
2026-05-15	33	$54.3B	-18.3%	$2.32T	3.5%
2026-05-22	34	$74.6B	27.6%	$2.40T	4.2%
2026-05-29	35	$58.0B	12.6%	$2.45T	4.3%
2026-06-05	36	$77.0B	3.5%	$2.53T	4.3%
2026-06-12	37	$54.3B	-9.1%	$2.58T	4.0%
2026-06-19	38	$65.1B	-7.2%	$2.65T	3.7%
2026-06-26	39	$64.1B	16.9%	$2.71T	4.0%
2026-07-03	40	$83.4B	19.4%	$2.80T	4.4%
2026-07-10	41	$50.3B	-13.3%	$2.85T	4.0%
2026-07-17	42	$67.1B	0.9%	$2.91T	3.9%
2026-07-24	43	$55.6B	12.2%	$2.97T	4.1%
2026-07-31	44	$54.9B	-24.3%	$3.03T	3.4%
2026-08-07	45	$80.3B	38.6%	$3.11T	4.0%
2026-08-14	46	$53.0B	3.8%	$3.16T	4.0%
2026-08-21	47	$77.5B	7.5%	$3.24T	4.1%
2026-08-28	48	$54.0B	2.2%	$3.29T	4.1%
2026-09-04	49	$82.5B	12.4%	$3.37T	4.3%
2026-09-11	50	$50.7B	1.9%	$3.42T	4.2%
2026-09-18	51	$77.4B	3.9%	$3.50T	4.2%
2026-09-25	52	$41.5B	-17.5%	$3.54T	3.9%

Debt & Presidency

Debt growth is grouped by presidency using explicit term-date mappings; the validation panel warns when future terms need to be added.

Debt Service Pressure

Gross interest on Treasury debt compared with total receipts. This shows how much federal revenue is being absorbed by debt service.

Fiscal Year	Gross Interest FYTD	Total Receipts FYTD	Interest / Receipts	Interest FYTD YoY
FY2021	$562.4B	$4.05T	13.9%	7.6%
FY2022	$717.6B	$4.90T	14.7%	27.6%
FY2023	$879.3B	$4.44T	19.8%	22.5%
FY2024	$1.13T	$4.92T	23.0%	28.9%
FY2025	$1.22T	$5.23T	23.2%	7.3%
FY2026	$1.27T	$4.85T	26.2%	12.7%

Deficit Impulse

Positive impulse means the fiscal deficit is wider than the comparable prior-year fiscal period; negative impulse means the deficit is narrowing.

Fiscal Year	Current FYTD Deficit	Prior FYTD Deficit	Impulse ($)	Impulse %
FY2021	$2.77T	$3.13T	$-359.7B	-11.5%
FY2022	$1.38T	$2.78T	$-1.40T	-50.4%
FY2023	$1.70T	$1.38T	$319.7B	23.2%
FY2024	$1.83T	$1.70T	$137.6B	8.1%
FY2025	$1.78T	$1.82T	$-41.4B	-2.3%
FY2026	$1.97T	$1.97T	$-7.7B	-0.4%

Public Debt Change By Presidency

President	Start	Latest/End	First Debt ($B/$T)	Last Debt ($B/$T)	Change
George W. Bush	2001-01-22	2009-01-16	$5.73T	$10.63T	85.6%
Barack Obama	2009-01-20	2017-01-19	$10.63T	$19.94T	87.7%
Donald Trump I	2017-01-20	2021-01-19	$19.95T	$27.75T	39.1%
Joe Biden	2021-01-20	2025-01-17	$27.75T	$36.21T	30.5%
Donald Trump II	2025-01-21	2026-09-24	$36.22T	$40.07T	10.6%

Social Security

SSA OACT quarterly trust-fund operations: asset reserves, trailing-four-quarter income, trailing-four-quarter cost, and surplus/deficit.

Social Security Trust Fund Snapshot - 2026-06-30

Official SSA OACT quarterly OASDI table. Source amounts are reported in billions; display values below are formatted as $B/$T.

Metric	Value	Definition
Trust Fund Asset Reserves	$2.52T	Quarter-end combined OASI and DI reserves
Rolling 12M Total Income	$1.47T	Trailing four-quarter income
Rolling 12M Total Cost	$1.64T	Trailing four-quarter cost
Rolling 12M Surplus / Deficit	$-175.4B	Income less cost

Foreign Demand

Treasury TIC Major Foreign Holders: country holdings, official holdings, and changes in foreign demand for U.S. Treasury securities.

Foreign Demand Dashboard - TIC Major Foreign Holders

Treasury TIC data, converted to billions. Aggregate rows such as Grand Total and Foreign Official come from TIC Table 5; country-holder rows come from TIC Table 3, which is why aggregate and country panels can have different latest dates and coverage.

Holder	Latest Holdings	1M Change	3M Change	12M Change
Grand Total	$9.25T	$-50B	$-102B	$139B
Of Which: Foreign Official	$3.77T	$-5B	$-131B	$-113B
Of Which: Foreign Official Treasury Bills	$354.4B	$-6B	$-103B	$-56B
Of Which: Foreign Official T-Bonds & Notes	$3.42T	$1B	$-28B	$-58B
Japan	$1.10T	$-13B	$-106B	$-51B
United Kingdom	$998.3B	$58B	$61B	$102B
China, Mainland	$618.0B	$-15B	$-33B	$-78B
Belgium	$470.7B	$-12B	$11B	$45B
Cayman Islands	$460.1B	$7B	$-12B	$23B
Luxembourg	$442.1B	$8B	$11B	$38B
Canada	$426.3B	$-33B	$29B	$45B
Ireland	$350.2B	$-3B	$5B	$30B
France	$348.4B	$-42B	$-45B	$-43B
Taiwan	$296.1B	$-6B	$-5B	$-13B

Top 10 Country Holder Panels

The first row shows aggregate foreign-holder Treasury holdings across reported countries, followed by each top-10 country as three separate five-year panels: Treasury holdings, 3-month holdings change, and 12-month holdings change. Countries are ranked by latest reported holdings.

Foreign Equity Holdings

Treasury TIC SLT Table 1: country-level foreign holdings of U.S. corporate equity, net sales, valuation effects, and rolling demand changes.

Foreign Equity Holdings Dashboard - TIC SLT Table 1

Treasury TIC Table 1, reported monthly in millions and converted to billions. Shows aggregate foreign holdings plus the top 10 country holders of U.S. corporate equity. The 1M/3M/12M change columns are holdings-stock changes. Equity Mix is each holder's own U.S. equity allocation inside its total U.S. long-term securities holdings, so rows do not sum to 100%. Net sales are the transaction-flow field from TIC; valuation change separates market-price effects from position changes when available.

Holder	Latest Equity Holdings	1M Change	3M Change	12M Change	Equity Mix Of LT Holdings	Net Sales	Valuation Change
All Countries	$24.32T	$-166B	$1,117B	$4,309B	62.9%	$3B	$-304B
United Kingdom	$2.60T	$-24B	$101B	$516B	63.4%	$-28B	$-54B
Cayman Islands	$2.58T	$-23B	$144B	$460B	74.6%	$-8B	$-44B
Canada	$2.52T	$-55B	$104B	$433B	75.4%	$-60B	$-23B
Ireland	$2.00T	$23B	$161B	$500B	76.1%	$37B	$-23B
Luxembourg	$1.70T	$-26B	$233B	$330B	56.9%	$10B	$-9B
Japan	$1.39T	$-8B	$41B	$217B	46.4%	$2B	$-12B
Switzerland	$1.14T	$10B	$49B	$155B	75.2%	$3B	$-16B
Singapore	$1.08T	$14B	$98B	$308B	72.4%	$14B	$-7B
Norway	$1.03T	$-6B	$49B	$188B	76.6%	$1B	$-7B
Australia	$847.7B	$0B	$38B	$147B	87.1%	$-4B	$2B

Top 10 Foreign Equity Holder Panels

The first row shows total foreign U.S. equity holdings, followed by each top-10 country as three separate five-year panels: holdings, 3-month holdings change, and 12-month holdings change. Net-sales flow and valuation-change fields remain in the table because they explain why holdings changes can differ from transaction flow.

Issuance & Maturities

Auction data tracks issuance mix, front-end concentration, and the maturity wall by security type. Bid-to-cover equals total bids received divided by securities awarded; higher readings usually indicate stronger auction demand, while weak readings can signal poorer absorption of Treasury supply.

Auction Demand Dashboard

Uses fields available in Treasury FiscalData: offering amount, bid-to-cover, high yield, and reopening flag. Dealer takedown and indirect-bidder share are not available in the current endpoint.

Auction Date	Security	Offering	Bid/Cover	Vs Type Median	High Yield	Reopening
2026-09-29	Bill 52-Week	$54.0B	nan	nan	nan%	No
2026-09-29	Bill 6-Week	$85.0B	nan	nan	nan%	Yes
2026-09-28	Bill 13-Week	$95.0B	nan	nan	nan%	Yes
2026-09-28	Bill 26-Week	$82.0B	nan	nan	nan%	No
2026-09-24	Note 7-Year	$44.0B	2.42	-0.16	5.085%	No
2026-09-24	Bill 4-Week	$90.0B	2.61	-0.43	nan%	Yes
2026-09-24	Bill 8-Week	$85.0B	2.76	-0.28	nan%	Yes
2026-09-23	Note 5-Year	$70.0B	2.21	-0.37	5.033%	No
2026-09-23	Bill 17-Week	$72.0B	2.81	-0.23	nan%	No
2026-09-23	Note 1-Year 10-Month	$28.0B	2.63	0.05	nan%	Yes
2026-09-22	Note 2-Year	$69.0B	2.63	0.05	4.787%	No
2026-09-22	Bill 6-Week	$75.0B	3.03	-0.01	nan%	Yes
2026-09-21	Bill 26-Week	$79.0B	2.62	-0.42	nan%	No
2026-09-21	Bill 13-Week	$92.0B	2.77	-0.27	nan%	Yes
2026-09-17	Bill 4-Week	$90.0B	3.02	-0.02	nan%	Yes
2026-09-17	Bill 8-Week	$85.0B	2.94	-0.10	nan%	Yes
2026-09-17	Note 9-Year 10-Month	$19.0B	2.24	-0.34	2.653%	Yes
2026-09-16	Bill 17-Week	$72.0B	2.72	-0.32	nan%	No

Auction Demand: Bid-To-Cover By Security Type

Each panel separates auction demand by security type. Dots are individual auctions, the gold line is a short rolling average, and the dotted line is the security-type median.

Latest Issuance Mix - 2026-09-30

Security type	Amount ($B/$T)	Share
Bill	$2.05T	92.8%
Note	$125.0B	5.7%
Bond	$35.0B	1.6%

Forward Treasury Estimates

Announced future issuance and maturity schedules from Treasury auction data. These rows update when the script is run with --update or --refresh.

Treasury Supply Calendar: Next 90 Days

Weekly announced issuance grouped by issue date. This is the cleanest near-term supply pressure view from existing Treasury auction data.

Week Ending	Bill	Note	Bond	TIPS	FRN	Total
2026-10-02	$563.0B	$202.0B	$0	$0	$0	$765.0B

Forward Announced Issuance Calendar

Issue Date	Type	Term	Maturity	Offering ($B/$T)	Reopening
2026-09-29	Bill	17-Week	2027-01-26	$72.0B	No
2026-09-29	Bill	8-Week	2026-11-24	$85.0B	Yes
2026-09-29	Bill	4-Week	2026-10-27	$90.0B	Yes
2026-09-30	Note	5-Year	2031-09-30	$70.0B	No
2026-09-30	Note	2-Year	2028-09-30	$69.0B	No
2026-09-30	Note	9-Year 10-Month	2036-07-15	$19.0B	Yes
2026-09-30	Note	7-Year	2033-09-30	$44.0B	No
2026-10-01	Bill	52-Week	2027-09-30	$54.0B	No
2026-10-01	Bill	6-Week	2026-11-12	$85.0B	Yes
2026-10-01	Bill	26-Week	2027-04-01	$82.0B	No
2026-10-01	Bill	13-Week	2026-12-31	$95.0B	Yes

Forward Maturity Wall: Next 16 Quarters ($B)

Quarter	Bill	Note	Bond	Total
2026-09-30	6,655.0	796.0	10.0	7,461.0
2026-12-31	5,170.0	809.0	10.0	5,989.0
2027-03-31	1,386.0	808.0	24.0	2,218.0
2027-06-30	232.0	826.0	0.0	1,058.0
2027-09-30	210.0	841.0	10.0	1,061.0
2027-12-31	0.0	867.0	20.0	887.0
2028-03-31	0.0	883.0	14.0	897.0
2028-06-30	0.0	891.0	16.0	907.0
2028-09-30	0.0	898.0	10.0	908.0
2028-12-31	0.0	633.0	10.0	643.0
2029-03-31	0.0	626.0	24.0	650.0
2029-06-30	0.0	629.0	19.0	648.0
2029-09-30	0.0	608.0	10.0	618.0
2029-12-31	0.0	436.0	0.0	436.0
2030-03-31	0.0	429.0	0.0	429.0
2030-06-30	0.0	453.0	15.0	468.0

Validation

Source freshness, units, line mapping coverage, and reconciliation checks.

Status	Check	Detail
PASS	debt_to_penny API rows loaded	8,400 rows; latest 2026-09-24; endpoint /v2/accounting/od/debt_to_penny
PASS	dts_cash_flows API rows loaded	484,089 rows; latest 2026-09-24; endpoint /v1/accounting/dts/deposits_withdrawals_operating_cash
PASS	mts_summary API rows loaded	7,894 rows; latest 2026-08-31; endpoint /v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_3
PASS	mts_receipts_detail API rows loaded	7,604 rows; latest 2026-08-31; endpoint /v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_4
PASS	mts_outlays_detail API rows loaded	110,158 rows; latest 2026-08-31; endpoint /v1/accounting/mts/mts_table_5
PASS	auctions API rows loaded	11,131 rows; latest 2026-10-01; endpoint /v1/accounting/od/auctions_query
PASS	average_interest_rates API rows loaded	5,009 rows; latest 2026-08-31; endpoint /v2/accounting/od/avg_interest_rates
PASS	mspd_summary API rows loaded	4,659 rows; latest 2026-08-31; endpoint /v1/debt/mspd/mspd_table_1
PASS	mspd_marketable_detail API rows loaded	154,292 rows; latest 2026-08-31; endpoint /v1/debt/mspd/mspd_table_3_market
PASS	gdp API rows loaded	318 quarterly FRED nominal GDP rows; latest 2026-04-01
PASS	ssa_trust_fund_ops official .gov rows loaded	157 quarterly SSA OACT rows parsed from .gov HTML; latest 2026-06-30; source reports $ billions
PASS	tic_major_foreign_holders Treasury TIC rows loaded	5,593 TIC/proxy rows parsed; monthly TIC latest 2026-07-01; weekly custody proxy latest 2026-09-23; source reports $ billions
PASS	tic_foreign_equity_holders TIC rows loaded	8,216 TIC equity holder-month rows parsed; latest 2026-07-01; source reports $ billions
PASS	tic_foreign_equity_holders component reconciliation	Max \|total LT - Treasury - agency - corp bond - equity\| difference: $0.0010B
PASS	Debt to the Penny latest subtotal reconciliation	Latest public + intragov vs total debt difference: $0.00
PASS	mts_receipts expected line mappings	All tracked lines found
PASS	mts_outlays expected line mappings	All tracked lines found
PASS	mts_receipts_detail expanded matrix line mappings	All expanded table lines found
PASS	mts_outlays_detail expanded matrix line mappings	All expanded table lines found
PASS	President mapping horizon	Latest data 2026-09-25; mapped through 2029-01-20
PASS	Forward Treasury estimates/update set	11 future issue rows; maturity wall through 2056-09-30