ETF Macro Technical Chartdeck

Universe breadth, sector/factor rotation, relative strength, macro sensitivity, and return extremes.

As OfSeptember 25, 2026
Tickers113
History Start2010
Chart Start2024-01-01

Executive Summary

Most important current extremes and changes across the full deck.

Plain-English Read-Through

Best-positioned groups right now: Growth / Tech Leadership, Core Index Beta, Commodities / Crypto / USD. These have the strongest blend of trend, relative strength, and recent inflection.

Growth / Tech Leadership0.71Core Index Beta0.14Commodities / Crypto / USD-0.17

Most vulnerable groups right now: Rates / Credit, Defensive Sectors, Financial / Health Care Industries. These are weaker across trend and recent change metrics.

Rates / Credit-2.02Defensive Sectors-1.56Financial / Health Care Industries-1.02

USD Shock Read-Through

If usd rises, helped: Defensive Sectors, Cyclical Sectors, Rates / Credit.

If usd rises, hurt: Metals / Miners, Commodities / Crypto / USD, Thematic / Speculative Growth.

If usd falls, helped: Metals / Miners, Commodities / Crypto / USD, Thematic / Speculative Growth.

If usd falls, hurt: Defensive Sectors, Cyclical Sectors, Rates / Credit.

Oil Shock Read-Through

If oil rises, helped: Commodities / Crypto / USD, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, Rates / Credit.

If oil rises, hurt: Metals / Miners, Growth / Tech Leadership, Thematic / Speculative Growth.

If oil falls, helped: Metals / Miners, Growth / Tech Leadership, Thematic / Speculative Growth.

If oil falls, hurt: Commodities / Crypto / USD, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, Rates / Credit.

Rates Shock Read-Through

If rates rises, helped: Commodities / Crypto / USD, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, Rates / Credit.

If rates rises, hurt: Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Financial / Health Care Industries.

If rates falls, helped: Metals / Miners, Thematic / Speculative Growth, Financial / Health Care Industries.

If rates falls, hurt: Commodities / Crypto / USD, Industries / Infrastructure / Housing, Rates / Credit.

Breadth Snapshot

  • Above 20DMA35.4%
  • Above 50DMA31.9%
  • Above 200DMA57.5%
  • Positive 20D Return29.2%
  • Within 5% 52W High38.9%
  • 20D New Lows11.5%

1M Leadership

  • BUGCybersecurity8.1%
  • SMHSemiconductors7.0%
  • BTC-USDBitcoin5.3%
  • ARKKSpeculative Tech5.3%
  • XLKTechnology4.9%
  • MTUMMomentum4.7%
  • MAGSMagnificent 74.6%
  • USOOil4.5%
  • QTUMQuantum/AI4.3%
  • QQQNasdaq 1003.7%
  • SPHBHigh Beta3.3%
  • GSGCommodities3.0%

1M Laggards

  • URNMUranium Miners-13.9%
  • COALCoal-12.1%
  • URAUranium-11.2%
  • PALLPalladium-9.2%
  • XMEMetals & Mining-8.6%
  • OIHOil Services-7.9%
  • XESOil Services-7.8%
  • SILSilver Miners-7.8%
  • SILJJunior Silver Miners-7.8%
  • IAIBroker Dealers-7.7%
  • XLUUtilities-7.6%
  • PSPPrivate Equity-7.3%

Return Z-Score Extremes

Extended

  • BUGCybersecurity1.15
  • UUPUS Dollar1.01
  • USOOil0.99
  • GSGCommodities0.99
  • DBCCommodities0.92
  • MAGSMagnificent 70.76
  • CRAKRefiners0.76
  • XLKTechnology0.70

Washed Out

  • STIPShort TIPS-3.18
  • TIPTIPS-3.09
  • MBBMBS-2.76
  • SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol-2.71
  • SHY1-3Y Treasury-2.69
  • HYGHigh Yield-2.43
  • AGGAggregate Bonds-2.42
  • XLUUtilities-2.41

Moving Average Extremes

Above Own Norm

  • UUPUS Dollar1.05
  • BTC-USDBitcoin1.02
  • MAGSMagnificent 70.65
  • BUGCybersecurity0.62
  • ARKKSpeculative Tech0.62
  • XLKTechnology0.58
  • GSGCommodities0.57
  • QQQNasdaq 1000.51

Below Own Norm

  • STIPShort TIPS-2.94
  • TIPTIPS-2.87
  • SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol-2.63
  • MBBMBS-2.60
  • XLUUtilities-2.60
  • HYGHigh Yield-2.47
  • SHY1-3Y Treasury-2.45
  • SPLVLow Vol-2.42

Relative Strength Extremes

Improving vs SPY

  • CLOUCloud1.98
  • IGVSoftware1.91
  • ARKKSpeculative Tech1.49
  • MAGSMagnificent 71.46
  • OEFS&P 1001.37
  • XLGMega Cap1.36
  • BTC-USDBitcoin1.34
  • PNQIInternet1.18

Deteriorating vs SPY

  • PAVEInfrastructure-2.59
  • XTNTransportation-2.40
  • XLIIndustrials-2.40
  • ITAAerospace & Defense-2.40
  • XLUUtilities-2.35
  • IWMRussell 2000-2.16
  • VOMid Cap-1.97
  • XLREReal Estate-1.94

Signal Changes

PPO Buy Signals

PINK, EZU, VO

PPO Sell Signals

FXI

Inflection Leaders

Improving Fastest

  • QQQNasdaq 1000.77
  • MAGSMagnificent 70.70
  • XLCCommunication Services0.64
  • IWFGrowth0.60
  • SMHSemiconductors0.55
  • QUALQuality0.55
  • QTUMQuantum/AI0.54
  • SPHBHigh Beta0.52

Deteriorating Fastest

  • LQDIG Credit-0.99
  • IAKInsurance-0.97
  • TLT20Y Treasury-0.95
  • XLUUtilities-0.93
  • HYGHigh Yield-0.87
  • EMBEM USD Debt-0.87
  • MBBMBS-0.82
  • AGGAggregate Bonds-0.82

Macro Sensitivity

Most Oil-Sensitive 30D

  • FCGNatural Gas Equities0.48
  • GSGCommodities0.46
  • XOPOil E&P0.44
  • DBCCommodities0.42
  • XLEEnergy0.30
  • CRAKRefiners0.18
  • XESOil Services0.15
  • BUGCybersecurity0.11

Most Rate-Sensitive 30D

  • USOOil31.75
  • GSGCommodities15.03
  • DBCCommodities12.96
  • XOPOil E&P9.80
  • FCGNatural Gas Equities9.64
  • XLEEnergy8.36
  • DBAAgriculture3.29
  • UUPUS Dollar2.81

Most USD-Sensitive 30D

  • IHIMedical Devices1.11
  • UUPUS Dollar1.00
  • XLCCommunication Services0.74
  • DXJJapan Hedged0.66
  • DBAAgriculture0.66
  • PEJLeisure0.52
  • FXIChina Large Cap0.52
  • BUGCybersecurity0.51

Macro Beta Stability

Oil Beta Shift

  • URAUranium-0.18
  • XMEMetals & Mining-0.16
  • URNMUranium Miners-0.15
  • ITBHome Construction-0.14
  • SMHSemiconductors-0.14
  • SPHBHigh Beta-0.14

Rates Beta Shift

  • BTC-USDBitcoin-10.40
  • COPXCopper Miners8.96
  • GRIDSmart Grid8.91
  • EWZBrazil8.88
  • EEMEmerging Markets8.77
  • COALCoal-8.56

USD Beta Shift

  • USOOil-2.24
  • SLVSilver1.91
  • XOPOil E&P-1.58
  • ITAAerospace & Defense1.44
  • UFOSpace1.43
  • FCGNatural Gas Equities-1.36

Volatility / Risk

Highest Vol Regime

  • BUGCybersecurity100%
  • XLCCommunication Services89%
  • IBBBiotech Large Cap89%
  • MBBMBS87%
  • IGVSoftware85%
  • STIPShort TIPS81%
  • GDXGold Miners81%
  • FCGNatural Gas Equities80%

Fastest Vol Acceleration

  • CPERCopper6.3%
  • DBBBase Metals5.1%
  • BUGCybersecurity3.7%
  • COPXCopper Miners3.6%
  • INDAIndia2.7%
  • FXIChina Large Cap2.4%
  • XLCCommunication Services2.2%
  • PLTMPlatinum1.9%

Best Compensated Risk

  • BKLNBank Loans1.26
  • CRAKRefiners1.04
  • MAGSMagnificent 70.88
  • BTC-USDBitcoin0.88
  • ARKKSpeculative Tech0.79
  • DBCCommodities0.70
  • GSGCommodities0.70
  • CLOUCloud0.65

Worst Compensated Risk

  • XLUUtilities-1.12
  • SPLVLow Vol-1.03
  • XLREReal Estate-0.86
  • PAVEInfrastructure-0.83
  • AGGAggregate Bonds-0.80
  • XTNTransportation-0.75
  • SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol-0.73
  • ITAAerospace & Defense-0.72

SPY Shock Map

SPY Up Shock: Biggest ETF Impact

  • URAUranium7.2%
  • SMHSemiconductors6.5%
  • QTUMQuantum/AI6.5%
  • ARKKSpeculative Tech6.4%
  • SILJJunior Silver Miners6.3%
  • URNMUranium Miners6.1%
  • GDXJJunior Gold Miners5.7%
  • SPHBHigh Beta5.7%

SPY Down Shock: Biggest ETF Impact

  • USOOil7.7%
  • GSGCommodities3.5%
  • DBCCommodities3.0%
  • FCGNatural Gas Equities2.4%
  • XOPOil E&P2.0%
  • XLEEnergy1.7%
  • CRAKRefiners0.4%
  • UUPUS Dollar0.4%

Most Equity-Sensitive Sleeves

  • Growth / Tech Leadership1.67
  • Metals / Miners1.59
  • Thematic / Speculative Growth1.25
  • Core Index Beta1.06
  • Style / Market Structure0.96

Regime Context

Current market backdrop across equity trend, USD, oil, rates, and ETF participation.

Equity Trend Regime

SPY defines the broad risk tape.

Above 50DMAAbove 200DMA50DMA > 200DMA
  • 30D Return Z-0.15
  • 60D Return4.6%
  • 50DMA Dev Z-0.18

USD Regime

Dollar strength can pressure global risk and commodities.

Above 50DMAAbove 200DMA50DMA > 200DMA
  • 30D Return Z1.01
  • 60D Return0.1%
  • 50DMA Dev Z1.05

Oil Regime

Oil trend frames energy, inflation, and commodity sensitivity.

Above 50DMAAbove 200DMA50DMA > 200DMA
  • 30D Return Z0.99
  • 60D Return18.9%
  • 50DMA Dev Z0.47

Rates Regime

10-year Treasury yield via ^TNX. Higher readings represent higher yields directly.

Above 50DMAAbove 200DMA50DMA > 200DMA
  • 10Y Yield0.52%
  • 60D Chg5 bps
  • 120D Chg7 bps

Universe Breadth Regime

Market participation across the full ETF universe.

  • Above 20DMA35.4%
  • Above 50DMA31.9%
  • Above 200DMA57.5%
  • Positive 20D Return29.2%

Signal Change And Inflection

Fastest 5- and 10-day changes in return z-score, relative strength, moving-average posture, and breadth momentum.

Fastest Technical Improvement

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.Inflection: blend of recent changes in return trend, relative strength, and moving-average posture.
TickerInflection30D Ret Z 5D ChgRS Z 5D Chg50D MA Z 5D Chg
QQQNasdaq 1000.770.670.930.71
MAGSMagnificent 70.700.391.220.48
XLCCommunication Services0.640.271.020.62
IWFGrowth0.600.570.690.55
SMHSemiconductors0.550.700.250.71
QUALQuality0.550.490.380.79
QTUMQuantum/AI0.540.610.410.61
SPHBHigh Beta0.520.530.370.68
XLGMega Cap0.510.450.630.47
OEFS&P 1000.500.410.660.44
ROBORobotics0.470.450.280.69
XLKTechnology0.470.570.270.57
CARZAutos0.450.560.330.45
CLOUCloud0.420.490.610.17
AIQAI Theme0.420.470.390.40

Fastest Technical Deterioration

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.Inflection: blend of recent changes in return trend, relative strength, and moving-average posture.
TickerInflection30D Ret Z 5D ChgRS Z 5D Chg50D MA Z 5D Chg
LQDIG Credit-0.99-1.47-0.37-1.14
IAKInsurance-0.97-1.14-0.85-0.92
TLT20Y Treasury-0.95-1.39-0.38-1.08
XLUUtilities-0.93-1.16-0.89-0.73
HYGHigh Yield-0.87-1.13-0.47-1.00
EMBEM USD Debt-0.87-1.17-0.46-0.98
MBBMBS-0.82-1.21-0.37-0.89
AGGAggregate Bonds-0.82-1.24-0.34-0.87
SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol-0.68-0.77-0.64-0.65
SPLVLow Vol-0.66-0.88-0.64-0.47
TIPTIPS-0.66-1.01-0.32-0.65
FCGNatural Gas Equities-0.64-0.16-0.92-0.82
XOPOil E&P-0.63-0.22-0.77-0.90
IEF7-10Y Treasury-0.62-0.98-0.30-0.60
XLEEnergy-0.62-0.18-0.85-0.83

Relative Strength Inflections

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
TickerRS Z 10D ChgRS Z 5D Chg30D Ret Z 5D Chg
QQQNasdaq 1002.040.930.67
IWFGrowth1.830.690.57
SPHBHigh Beta1.590.370.53
ARKKSpeculative Tech1.400.560.32
AIQAI Theme1.250.390.47
MAGSMagnificent 71.231.220.39
XLGMega Cap1.220.630.45
MTUMMomentum1.18-0.080.55
XLKTechnology1.150.270.57
SMHSemiconductors1.110.250.70
QTUMQuantum/AI1.090.410.61
CARZAutos1.080.330.56
ROBORobotics0.900.280.45
OEFS&P 1000.700.660.41
GRIDSmart Grid0.68-0.130.18

Breadth Momentum

TickerLatest Reading5D Change10D Change
Above 20DMA35%8%19%
Positive 20D Return29%6%9%
RSI Oversold11%1%-9%
More Than 20% Below 52W High11%1%-1%
Above 50DMA32%0%4%
RSI Overbought1%0%-4%
Within 5% 52W High39%0%-1%
20D New High3%-1%-5%
52W New High0%-1%-6%
52W New Low1%-1%-4%
PPO Buy Signal3%-1%2%
PPO Sell Signal1%-1%-2%
Above 200DMA58%-1%-4%
20D New Low12%-12%-35%

Volatility Heating Up

Inflection: blend of recent changes in return trend, relative strength, and moving-average posture.Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Vol Spread: 20D realized vol minus 60D realized vol; positive means short-term risk is above the medium-term baseline.Percentile: rank versus the ETF's own trailing history.
TickerVol Pctl 5D ChgVol Spread 5D ChgInflection
TIPTIPS45.5%0.8%-0.66
MBBMBS31.5%1.1%-0.82
IEF7-10Y Treasury31.1%1.2%-0.62
AGGAggregate Bonds29.2%0.8%-0.82
HYGHigh Yield22.8%0.5%-0.87
LQDIG Credit21.2%1.0%-0.99
PINKHealth Innovators20.0%2.4%0.06
TLT20Y Treasury16.8%2.1%-0.95
IYGFinancial Services16.7%-0.9%-0.49
XLFFinancials15.2%-1.0%-0.55
QUALQuality14.7%0.8%0.55
XMAGEx-Mag 714.5%-0.5%0.11
XHBHomebuilders13.5%2.1%0.37
EMBEM USD Debt13.5%1.1%-0.87
URAUranium13.1%0.6%-0.31

Volatility Cooling Down

Inflection: blend of recent changes in return trend, relative strength, and moving-average posture.Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Vol Spread: 20D realized vol minus 60D realized vol; positive means short-term risk is above the medium-term baseline.Percentile: rank versus the ETF's own trailing history.
TickerVol Pctl 5D ChgVol Spread 5D ChgInflection
XLYConsumer Discretionary-33.2%1.4%0.29
ITAAerospace & Defense-14.4%1.1%-0.09
OIHOil Services-13.1%-1.7%-0.20
INDAIndia-12.2%1.6%-0.05
DBCCommodities-11.9%2.6%-0.36
CRAKRefiners-8.9%0.4%-0.38
PEJLeisure-7.9%2.5%0.19
XESOil Services-7.9%-1.4%-0.23
PNQIInternet-7.8%2.6%0.37
HEROVideo Games-6.6%2.3%0.02
GSGCommodities-6.6%2.6%-0.37
MAGSMagnificent 7-6.6%3.1%0.70
XLPConsumer Staples-6.0%1.5%-0.08
SPXTEx-Tech S&P-5.3%-0.1%-0.04
XLREReal Estate-4.5%1.0%-0.46

Performance Leaders And Laggards

Sorted high-to-low on the best side and low-to-high on the worst side by trailing one-month return.

Top 20 1M Performers

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.
Ticker1M Price Return3M Price Return60D Return Z120D Return Z20D MA Dev Z50D MA Dev Z
BUGCybersecurity8.1%18.3%1.051.260.620.62
SMHSemiconductors7.0%8.1%0.16-0.771.100.48
BTC-USDBitcoin5.3%30.9%1.390.340.781.02
ARKKSpeculative Tech5.3%26.3%1.200.000.770.62
XLKTechnology4.9%11.7%0.72-0.331.010.58
MTUMMomentum4.7%4.2%0.15-0.770.990.48
MAGSMagnificent 74.6%15.0%1.07-0.440.760.65
USOOil4.5%8.5%0.620.06-0.580.47
QTUMQuantum/AI4.3%10.5%0.10-1.380.73-0.06
QQQNasdaq 1003.7%8.9%0.68-0.671.080.51
SPHBHigh Beta3.3%8.6%0.34-0.520.870.31
GSGCommodities3.0%9.5%1.040.37-0.490.57
CARZAutos3.0%8.1%0.21-1.410.460.05
AIQAI Theme2.6%13.8%0.72-0.990.480.19
IWFGrowth2.4%7.4%0.65-0.650.860.35
DBCCommodities2.3%8.4%1.150.36-0.580.49
CLOUCloud2.2%23.1%1.341.130.270.01
XLGMega Cap2.1%7.4%0.72-0.650.730.38
UUPUS Dollar1.9%0.1%-0.170.581.321.05
CPERCopper1.7%5.9%0.12-0.230.340.07

Worst 20 1M Performers

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.
Ticker1M Price Return3M Price Return60D Return Z120D Return Z20D MA Dev Z50D MA Dev Z
URNMUranium Miners-13.9%-0.6%-0.29-1.04-1.17-1.24
COALCoal-12.1%3.2%0.29-0.79-1.71-1.16
URAUranium-11.2%2.6%-0.24-1.13-1.08-1.07
PALLPalladium-9.2%1.9%-0.39-0.71-0.74-0.88
XMEMetals & Mining-8.6%6.5%-0.07-1.33-0.98-1.19
OIHOil Services-7.9%0.5%-0.09-0.64-0.98-0.92
XESOil Services-7.8%-0.2%-0.06-0.62-1.09-1.02
SILSilver Miners-7.8%21.4%0.61-0.78-0.90-0.88
SILJJunior Silver Miners-7.8%18.0%0.38-0.80-0.75-0.87
IAIBroker Dealers-7.7%-3.0%-0.95-0.66-1.39-1.44
XLUUtilities-7.6%-14.0%-2.86-2.37-2.49-2.60
PSPPrivate Equity-7.3%-1.0%-0.36-0.42-1.05-1.52
FCGNatural Gas Equities-7.1%0.2%0.22-0.10-1.59-1.11
NUKZNuclear-6.5%-4.3%-0.76-1.51-0.98-1.12
GDXGold Miners-6.4%23.4%0.88-0.49-0.83-0.84
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-6.1%23.8%0.75-0.58-0.66-0.77
XTNTransportation-6.1%-12.8%-1.49-1.39-0.82-1.29
SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol-6.0%-6.5%-1.98-0.78-2.24-2.63
EWAAustralia-6.0%-1.0%-0.64-0.65-1.19-1.52
XBIBiotech-5.4%3.0%-0.150.31-0.70-1.03

Universe Drilldown By Sleeve

Sleeve-level tables keep the read-through compact.

Style / Market Structure

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
MAGSMagnificent 70.761.07-0.441.460.650.670.43
XMAGEx-Mag 7-0.76-0.26-0.41-1.24-0.69-0.610.09
VOMid Cap-1.32-0.82-0.55-1.97-1.29-1.08-0.53
IWFGrowth0.440.65-0.650.970.350.260.16
IWDValue-1.12-0.470.05-0.89-1.10-0.710.20
SPXTEx-Tech S&P-1.24-0.55-0.83-1.15-1.12-0.97-0.72

Factors / Risk Appetite

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
SPHBHigh Beta0.060.34-0.520.330.310.010.22
MTUMMomentum0.460.15-0.77-0.340.48-0.170.15
QUALQuality-0.290.17-0.12-0.36-0.13-0.040.41
SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol-2.71-1.98-0.78-1.51-2.63-2.13-1.38
SPLVLow Vol-2.39-2.56-1.05-1.53-2.42-2.54-2.04

Core Index Beta

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
SPYS&P 500-0.150.30-0.50n/a-0.18-0.050.21
QQQNasdaq 1000.520.68-0.671.020.510.260.43
IWMRussell 2000-1.29-0.90-0.98-2.16-1.34-1.26-0.72
OEFS&P 1000.210.53-0.451.370.100.210.38
RSPEqual Weight S&P-1.65-0.92-0.49-1.52-1.53-1.21-0.51
XLGMega Cap0.510.72-0.651.360.380.390.24

Growth / Tech Leadership

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
XLKTechnology0.700.72-0.330.770.580.400.76
SMHSemiconductors0.520.16-0.77-0.150.48-0.130.03
IGVSoftware0.271.220.451.910.090.771.07
CLOUCloud0.171.341.131.980.010.921.60
BUGCybersecurity1.151.051.261.100.620.861.82
GRIDSmart Grid-0.43-0.26-1.55-0.80-0.51-0.82-1.10
AIQAI Theme0.240.72-0.991.030.190.130.35
QTUMQuantum/AI-0.060.10-1.380.04-0.06-0.43-0.40
ROBORobotics-0.29-0.05-1.53-0.22-0.25-0.48-0.58
NXTG5G / Digital Infra0.110.27-1.080.170.03-0.090.21
PNQIInternet-0.480.620.111.18-0.390.290.38

Thematic / Speculative Growth

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
PINKHealth Innovators-0.86-0.24-0.16-0.41-0.60-0.430.21
ARKKSpeculative Tech0.231.200.001.490.620.690.61
UFOSpace-0.59-0.64-3.03-0.74-0.80-1.08-2.01
PEJLeisure-1.72-1.30-0.77-1.94-1.43-1.46-1.05

Cyclical Sectors

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
XLYConsumer Discretionary-1.16-0.29-1.31-0.53-1.16-1.00-1.04
XLCCommunication Services-0.140.47-0.990.570.020.11-0.60
XLEEnergy-0.310.410.40-0.04-0.550.360.24
XLFFinancials-1.60-1.080.33-1.41-1.60-1.17-0.30
XLIIndustrials-1.43-1.74-1.21-2.40-1.39-1.76-1.62
XLBMaterials-1.57-0.69-0.70-0.84-1.29-0.96-0.81
XHBHomebuilders-0.92-1.08-0.38-1.32-0.79-1.04-0.65

Defensive Sectors

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
XLPConsumer Staples-1.37-1.02-0.75-0.61-1.14-1.06-0.92
XLVHealth Care-0.480.561.360.300.160.631.40
XLUUtilities-2.41-2.86-2.37-2.35-2.60-2.96-3.04
XLREReal Estate-2.07-2.16-1.23-1.94-2.04-2.08-1.48

Industries / Infrastructure / Housing

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
XTLTelecom-1.06-0.88-1.99-1.23-1.08-1.23-1.60
SOCLSocial Media-0.41-0.50-0.48-0.43-0.51-0.46-0.46
HEROVideo Games-0.340.510.130.79-0.480.200.02
XESOil Services-0.56-0.06-0.62-0.39-1.02-0.45-0.57
XOPOil E&P-0.380.420.47-0.00-0.620.260.24
OIHOil Services-0.53-0.09-0.64-0.35-0.92-0.30-0.52
CRAKRefiners0.761.361.710.830.341.331.36
FCGNatural Gas Equities-0.810.22-0.10-0.32-1.11-0.19-0.39
COALCoal-1.150.29-0.790.01-1.16-0.22-0.46
NUKZNuclear-1.14-0.76-1.51-1.07-1.12-1.12-1.58
JETSAirlines-0.53-0.85-0.56-0.96-0.47-0.91-0.42
PAVEInfrastructure-1.09-1.41-1.28-2.59-1.15-1.45-1.38
ITAAerospace & Defense-1.92-2.20-2.03-2.40-2.12-2.30-2.17
XTNTransportation-1.20-1.49-1.39-2.40-1.29-1.59-1.30
CARZAutos0.130.21-1.410.050.05-0.35-0.34
ITBHome Construction-0.90-0.74-0.18-0.85-0.71-0.80-0.39

Financial / Health Care Industries

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
KRERegional Banks-0.72-0.95-0.31-1.54-0.94-1.07-0.62
IAKInsurance-1.53-1.840.53-1.38-1.71-1.66-0.59
PSPPrivate Equity-1.58-0.36-0.42-0.66-1.52-0.70-0.39
IYGFinancial Services-1.39-0.920.13-1.47-1.42-1.06-0.39
IAIBroker Dealers-1.48-0.95-0.66-1.73-1.44-1.17-0.90
XBIBiotech-1.50-0.150.31-0.35-1.03-0.620.11
IBBBiotech Large Cap-0.771.041.300.840.060.641.13
IHFHealth Providers-0.44-0.230.75-0.33-0.35-0.190.92
IHIMedical Devices-1.370.110.710.21-1.13-0.260.01
IHEPharma-1.05-0.570.40-0.64-0.65-0.370.38

Rates / Credit

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
STIPShort TIPS-3.18-1.93-2.74-0.51-2.94-2.62-3.00
SHY1-3Y Treasury-2.69-1.44-1.65-0.40-2.45-2.03-2.13
TIPTIPS-3.09-1.86-2.54-0.69-2.87-2.67-2.93
IEF7-10Y Treasury-2.40-1.66-1.70-0.70-2.22-2.13-2.22
TLT20Y Treasury-1.51-1.13-1.30-0.71-1.36-1.54-1.61
AGGAggregate Bonds-2.42-1.63-1.86-0.63-2.25-2.22-2.27
CWBConvertibles-0.76-0.38-1.96-1.13-0.77-1.09-1.16
EMLCEM Local Debt-1.82-0.68-0.93-0.52-1.82-1.35-1.15
EMBEM USD Debt-2.17-1.70-2.01-0.93-2.23-2.36-2.13
HYGHigh Yield-2.43-1.43-1.97-0.70-2.47-2.34-2.18
LQDIG Credit-2.09-1.39-1.97-0.72-1.96-2.10-2.12
BKLNBank Loans0.060.710.33-0.150.130.620.49
MBBMBS-2.76-1.90-2.07-0.73-2.60-2.48-2.52
PFFPreferreds-1.19-0.41-1.33-0.57-1.09-0.88-1.04

Metals / Miners

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
XMEMetals & Mining-1.33-0.07-1.33-0.11-1.19-0.64-0.90
COPXCopper Miners-1.260.28-0.690.19-0.81-0.16-0.30
HAPHard Assets-1.070.25-0.37-0.08-0.99-0.09-0.37
WOODTimber-0.82-0.120.64-0.16-0.84-0.150.34
GDXGold Miners-1.230.88-0.490.74-0.840.11-0.48
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-1.160.75-0.580.67-0.770.08-0.54
SILSilver Miners-1.180.61-0.780.52-0.88-0.09-0.65
SILJJunior Silver Miners-1.130.38-0.800.32-0.87-0.22-0.66
URNMUranium Miners-1.68-0.29-1.04-0.34-1.24-0.76-1.05

International Equity

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
EWAAustralia-1.48-0.64-0.65-0.80-1.52-1.01-0.95
EWZBrazil0.20-0.05-0.23-0.160.040.09-0.38
FXIChina Large Cap-0.78-0.71-0.70-0.66-0.84-0.58-0.94
EEMEmerging Markets-0.180.42-1.310.30-0.09-0.23-0.24
EZUEurozone-1.23-0.51-0.74-0.60-1.18-1.03-0.62
INDAIndia-0.86-0.25-0.03-0.14-0.85-0.55-0.13
DXJJapan Hedged-0.20-0.43-0.31-0.68-0.22-0.33-0.13
EWUUnited Kingdom-1.31-0.72-0.69-0.69-1.24-0.93-0.90

Commodities / Crypto / USD

Return Z: return versus that ETF's own trailing history; positive is above normal.MA Dev Z: distance from the moving average versus that ETF's own history.RS Z: relative strength versus SPY, standardized versus its own history.
Ticker30D Return Z60D Return Z120D Return ZRS vs SPY Z50D MA Dev Z100D MA Dev Z200D MA Dev Z
DBAAgriculture-0.370.330.01-0.38-0.300.190.17
DBBBase Metals0.000.24-0.770.070.060.27-0.08
BTC-USDBitcoin0.311.390.341.341.021.340.83
DBCCommodities0.921.150.360.330.491.190.67
GSGCommodities0.991.040.370.330.571.160.64
USOOil0.990.620.060.020.470.830.36
GLDGold-1.54-0.00-1.19-0.09-1.08-0.46-1.26
SLVSilver-0.770.08-1.000.02-0.54-0.21-0.86
URAUranium-1.34-0.24-1.13-0.31-1.07-0.71-1.14
PLTMPlatinum-0.530.17-0.810.21-0.40-0.05-0.71
PALLPalladium-0.61-0.39-0.71-0.24-0.88-0.50-0.85
CPERCopper-0.090.12-0.230.060.070.200.32
UUPUS Dollar1.01-0.170.58-0.341.050.410.57

Relative / Absolute Strength By Sleeve

X-axis is 63D relative strength versus SPY, z-scored against each ETF's own relative history. Y-axis is a multi-horizon absolute trend composite z-score.

Style / Market Structure

Factors / Risk Appetite

Core Index Beta

Growth / Tech Leadership

Thematic / Speculative Growth

Cyclical Sectors

Defensive Sectors

Industries / Infrastructure / Housing

Financial / Health Care Industries

Rates / Credit

Metals / Miners

International Equity

Commodities / Crypto / USD

Improving Leadership

BUG, BTC-USD, CLOU, MAGS, ARKK, CRAK, XLK, IGV, QQQ, GSG, DBC, XLV, XLG, IWF, IBB, USO, AIQ, OEF

Deteriorating Laggards

XLU, STIP, TIP, MBB, SPLV, SPHD, HYG, AGG, EMB, SHY, IEF, XLRE, LQD, ITA, IAK, TLT, EMLC, XLI

Extreme Low / Washed Out

SPHD, HYG, SPLV, XLU, STIP, EMB, XLRE, IAK, TIP, XLF, LQD, AGG, SHY, EMLC, IYG, ITA, IAI, XTN

Extreme Extended

None

5 Day Move Versus 3 Year Normal

Sorted from largest positive 5-day z-score to most negative.

SMHSemiconductors1.23z | 5.9%
QQQNasdaq 1001.23z | 3.3%
SPHBHigh Beta1.14z | 3.9%
QUALQuality1.08z | 2.0%
XLKTechnology1.06z | 3.6%
XLCCommunication Services1.05z | 2.3%
QTUMQuantum/AI1.03z | 4.3%
ROBORobotics1.02z | 3.3%
UUPUS Dollar0.95z | 0.8%
MTUMMomentum0.94z | 2.9%
IWFGrowth0.93z | 2.4%
IBBBiotech Large Cap0.92z | 2.5%
MAGSMagnificent 70.89z | 3.1%
XLVHealth Care0.88z | 1.8%
XHBHomebuilders0.86z | 2.6%
DBAAgriculture0.83z | 1.4%
XLGMega Cap0.80z | 1.9%
AIQAI Theme0.79z | 2.9%
CARZAutos0.77z | 3.0%
ITBHome Construction0.77z | 2.3%
OEFS&P 1000.69z | 1.6%
JETSAirlines0.64z | 2.7%
BTC-USDBitcoin0.60z | 3.4%
XMAGEx-Mag 70.60z | 1.2%
SPYS&P 5000.57z | 1.3%
DXJJapan Hedged0.51z | 1.6%
ARKKSpeculative Tech0.50z | 2.9%
NXTG5G / Digital Infra0.50z | 1.6%
CLOUCloud0.49z | 2.0%
PNQIInternet0.46z | 1.4%
EEMEmerging Markets0.45z | 1.4%
IGVSoftware0.39z | 1.6%
SOCLSocial Media0.38z | 1.3%
IHEPharma0.34z | 1.0%
PEJLeisure0.29z | 0.9%
PAVEInfrastructure0.29z | 1.0%
EZUEurozone0.27z | 0.8%
GRIDSmart Grid0.26z | 0.9%
XLIIndustrials0.22z | 0.7%
CWBConvertibles0.19z | 0.6%
CPERCopper0.18z | 0.9%
BUGCybersecurity0.13z | 0.8%
PINKHealth Innovators0.12z | 0.4%
UFOSpace0.03z | 0.8%
XLBMaterials-0.01z | 0.1%
EWUUnited Kingdom-0.07z | 0.1%
SPXTEx-Tech S&P-0.08z | 0.0%
IWDValue-0.10z | 0.1%
VOMid Cap-0.11z | -0.0%
ITAAerospace & Defense-0.12z | -0.0%
HEROVideo Games-0.12z | -0.1%
XTLTelecom-0.13z | 0.2%
IHIMedical Devices-0.14z | -0.3%
INDAIndia-0.14z | -0.3%
DBBBase Metals-0.15z | -0.0%
XLYConsumer Discretionary-0.15z | -0.2%
XMEMetals & Mining-0.19z | -0.3%
XLPConsumer Staples-0.19z | -0.2%
RSPEqual Weight S&P-0.22z | -0.2%
IHFHealth Providers-0.22z | -0.5%
COPXCopper Miners-0.26z | -0.6%
OIHOil Services-0.39z | -1.3%
FXIChina Large Cap-0.41z | -1.0%
IWMRussell 2000-0.42z | -0.7%
URAUranium-0.43z | -1.8%
BKLNBank Loans-0.44z | -0.1%
NUKZNuclear-0.45z | -1.3%
PSPPrivate Equity-0.45z | -1.1%
KRERegional Banks-0.45z | -1.1%
PLTMPlatinum-0.45z | -1.6%
XBIBiotech-0.47z | -1.1%
SHY1-3Y Treasury-0.49z | -0.0%
URNMUranium Miners-0.50z | -2.4%
XTNTransportation-0.58z | -1.6%
DBCCommodities-0.58z | -0.9%
EWAAustralia-0.59z | -1.1%
GSGCommodities-0.59z | -1.2%
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-0.62z | -2.7%
COALCoal-0.66z | -2.2%
SILJJunior Silver Miners-0.66z | -3.2%
PFFPreferreds-0.67z | -0.6%
GDXGold Miners-0.67z | -2.7%
SLVSilver-0.69z | -3.0%
XESOil Services-0.70z | -2.6%
PALLPalladium-0.70z | -3.0%
IYGFinancial Services-0.74z | -1.4%
EWZBrazil-0.76z | -1.9%
SILSilver Miners-0.81z | -3.8%
USOOil-0.82z | -3.6%
WOODTimber-0.82z | -1.8%
XLFFinancials-0.83z | -1.5%
STIPShort TIPS-0.83z | -0.1%
XLREReal Estate-0.84z | -1.5%
GLDGold-0.89z | -1.9%
CRAKRefiners-0.90z | -1.8%
IAIBroker Dealers-0.93z | -2.1%
HAPHard Assets-1.03z | -1.7%
XLEEnergy-1.15z | -3.0%
EMLCEM Local Debt-1.21z | -0.9%
SPLVLow Vol-1.21z | -1.6%
FCGNatural Gas Equities-1.23z | -4.1%
XOPOil E&P-1.29z | -4.4%
IEF7-10Y Treasury-1.39z | -0.9%
SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol-1.52z | -2.2%
TIPTIPS-1.56z | -0.7%
IAKInsurance-1.68z | -3.2%
AGGAggregate Bonds-1.75z | -0.9%
TLT20Y Treasury-1.76z | -2.4%
XLUUtilities-1.78z | -3.2%
MBBMBS-1.87z | -1.0%
HYGHigh Yield-1.90z | -0.9%
EMBEM USD Debt-1.96z | -1.3%
LQDIG Credit-2.00z | -1.4%

ETF Breadth Health Versus SPY

Each panel pairs SPY price path with the ETF-universe percentage meeting the breadth condition.

Above 20DMA

Latest35.4%3Y Range0.0% - 98.2%

Above 50DMA

Latest31.9%3Y Range0.0% - 97.3%

Above 200DMA

Latest57.5%3Y Range0.0% - 97.3%

RSI Oversold

Latest10.6%3Y Range0.0% - 90.3%

RSI Overbought

Latest0.9%3Y Range0.0% - 69.0%

20D New High

Latest2.7%3Y Range0.0% - 84.1%

20D New Low

Latest11.5%3Y Range0.0% - 92.9%

52W New High

Latest0.0%3Y Range0.0% - 58.4%

52W New Low

Latest0.9%3Y Range0.0% - 82.3%

Positive 20D Return

Latest29.2%3Y Range0.0% - 98.2%

Within 5% 52W High

Latest38.9%3Y Range0.0% - 87.6%

More Than 20% Below 52W High

Latest10.6%3Y Range0.0% - 86.7%

PPO Buy Signal

Latest2.7%3Y Range0.0% - 47.8%

PPO Sell Signal

Latest0.9%3Y Range0.0% - 60.2%

Macro Beta Stability

Compares current 60-day beta to 1-year beta. Large positive shifts mean sensitivity is rising; large negative shifts mean sensitivity is fading or flipping lower.

USD Beta Becoming More Positive

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.
TickerUSD Beta 60DUSD Beta 1YUSD Beta Shift
SLVSilver-4.12-6.041.91
ITAAerospace & Defense0.29-1.151.44
UFOSpace-1.07-2.501.43
XLCCommunication Services0.70-0.581.28
SOCLSocial Media-0.43-1.611.18
COPXCopper Miners-3.84-4.971.13
PALLPalladium-2.68-3.761.08
BUGCybersecurity0.67-0.300.97
DXJJapan Hedged0.39-0.550.94
EWZBrazil-1.50-2.360.86
JETSAirlines-0.77-1.600.83
XTLTelecom-0.73-1.550.82
PEJLeisure-0.03-0.860.82
EZUEurozone-1.12-1.930.81
CPERCopper-1.74-2.440.70

USD Beta Becoming More Negative

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.
TickerUSD Beta 60DUSD Beta 1YUSD Beta Shift
USOOil0.442.69-2.24
XOPOil E&P-0.660.92-1.58
FCGNatural Gas Equities-0.740.62-1.36
GSGCommodities0.010.95-0.95
GDXGold Miners-6.18-5.28-0.89
BTC-USDBitcoin-2.52-1.72-0.79
COALCoal-1.91-1.14-0.77
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-6.52-5.87-0.65
XBIBiotech-2.52-1.88-0.64
CRAKRefiners-0.91-0.31-0.60
IBBBiotech Large Cap-1.94-1.39-0.55
XLEEnergy-0.040.51-0.55
SILSilver Miners-6.16-5.69-0.47
ARKKSpeculative Tech-3.18-2.71-0.47
SILJJunior Silver Miners-6.47-6.00-0.46

Oil Beta Becoming More Positive

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.
TickerOil Beta 60DOil Beta 1YOil Beta Shift
FCGNatural Gas Equities0.480.360.13
EWZBrazil-0.05-0.140.09
XOPOil E&P0.460.370.08
XLEEnergy0.330.250.07
OIHOil Services0.180.110.07
HEROVideo Games-0.06-0.120.06
KRERegional Banks-0.08-0.130.05
DBCCommodities0.410.370.05
XESOil Services0.190.150.04
EWUUnited Kingdom-0.08-0.120.04
IHEPharma-0.07-0.110.04
INDAIndia-0.15-0.190.04
EZUEurozone-0.15-0.180.04
DXJJapan Hedged-0.09-0.130.04
PEJLeisure-0.17-0.210.03

Oil Beta Becoming More Negative

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.
TickerOil Beta 60DOil Beta 1YOil Beta Shift
URAUranium-0.44-0.26-0.18
XMEMetals & Mining-0.32-0.16-0.16
URNMUranium Miners-0.35-0.21-0.15
ITBHome Construction-0.44-0.30-0.14
SMHSemiconductors-0.35-0.21-0.14
SPHBHigh Beta-0.35-0.21-0.14
QTUMQuantum/AI-0.34-0.21-0.13
XHBHomebuilders-0.41-0.29-0.13
PSPPrivate Equity-0.30-0.18-0.12
XLKTechnology-0.26-0.14-0.12
UFOSpace-0.27-0.15-0.11
XTLTelecom-0.24-0.13-0.11
COALCoal0.030.12-0.09
QQQNasdaq 100-0.22-0.13-0.09
AIQAI Theme-0.27-0.18-0.09

Rates Beta Becoming More Positive

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.
TickerRates Beta 60DRates Beta 1YRates Beta Shift
COPXCopper Miners-19.67-28.628.96
GRIDSmart Grid-5.04-13.968.91
EWZBrazil-2.90-11.788.88
EEMEmerging Markets-8.58-17.368.77
ITAAerospace & Defense-5.26-13.828.56
EZUEurozone-6.66-15.138.46
CARZAutos-8.07-16.228.15
PAVEInfrastructure-4.12-11.867.74
MTUMMomentum-2.38-9.877.49
SMHSemiconductors-7.73-14.777.04
DXJJapan Hedged-1.26-8.036.78
ROBORobotics-11.25-17.456.20
XLIIndustrials-3.82-9.946.12
XHBHomebuilders-20.26-26.366.10
OIHOil Services11.135.136.00

Rates Beta Becoming More Negative

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.
TickerRates Beta 60DRates Beta 1YRates Beta Shift
BTC-USDBitcoin-15.93-5.53-10.40
COALCoal-7.301.25-8.56
CLOUCloud-16.82-8.99-7.84
URAUranium-32.92-25.11-7.80
IGVSoftware-14.73-7.23-7.50
URNMUranium Miners-29.20-21.89-7.31
XBIBiotech-23.60-18.52-5.09
BUGCybersecurity-12.64-7.68-4.95
XOPOil E&P16.2520.92-4.67
PSPPrivate Equity-19.88-15.50-4.38
ARKKSpeculative Tech-25.81-21.44-4.36
IBBBiotech Large Cap-18.97-14.73-4.24
FCGNatural Gas Equities15.6118.84-3.23
XMEMetals & Mining-19.50-16.34-3.16
PNQIInternet-13.31-10.47-2.84

Macro Sensitivity: 30 / 60 Days

Betas and correlations to USD, oil, and rising-rate proxy returns over the 30D and 60D windows.

30D Factor Sensitivity

Oil Up Sensitivity

Highest positive beta: these ETFs have historically tended to rise the most when oil rises over this window.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerOil BetaOil Corr
FCGNatural Gas Equities0.480.78
GSGCommodities0.460.97
XOPOil E&P0.440.77
DBCCommodities0.420.97
XLEEnergy0.300.66

Oil Down Sensitivity

Most negative beta: these ETFs have historically tended to benefit when oil falls, or lag when it rises.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerOil BetaOil Corr
COPXCopper Miners-0.46-0.51
PALLPalladium-0.44-0.43
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-0.44-0.41
SILJJunior Silver Miners-0.41-0.38
ITBHome Construction-0.41-0.72

Rates Up Sensitivity

Highest positive beta: these ETFs have historically tended to rise the most when rates rises over this window.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerRates BetaRates Corr
USOOil31.750.53
GSGCommodities15.030.53
DBCCommodities12.960.50
XOPOil E&P9.800.29
FCGNatural Gas Equities9.640.26

Rates Down Sensitivity

Most negative beta: these ETFs have historically tended to benefit when rates falls, or lag when it rises.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerRates BetaRates Corr
URNMUranium Miners-42.30-0.70
URAUranium-41.53-0.71
SILJJunior Silver Miners-41.18-0.62
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-39.29-0.60
SILSilver Miners-38.66-0.63

USD Up Sensitivity

Highest positive beta: these ETFs have historically tended to rise the most when usd rises over this window.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerUSD BetaUSD Corr
IHIMedical Devices1.110.32
UUPUS Dollar1.001.00
XLCCommunication Services0.740.17
DXJJapan Hedged0.660.21
DBAAgriculture0.660.24

USD Down Sensitivity

Most negative beta: these ETFs have historically tended to benefit when usd falls, or lag when it rises.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerUSD BetaUSD Corr
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-6.80-0.70
SILJJunior Silver Miners-6.75-0.68
SILSilver Miners-6.29-0.68
GDXGold Miners-5.80-0.71
URNMUranium Miners-5.70-0.63

60D Factor Sensitivity

Oil Up Sensitivity

Highest positive beta: these ETFs have historically tended to rise the most when oil rises over this window.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerOil BetaOil Corr
FCGNatural Gas Equities0.480.80
GSGCommodities0.470.97
XOPOil E&P0.460.77
DBCCommodities0.410.96
XLEEnergy0.330.72

Oil Down Sensitivity

Most negative beta: these ETFs have historically tended to benefit when oil falls, or lag when it rises.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerOil BetaOil Corr
JETSAirlines-0.47-0.81
ITBHome Construction-0.44-0.72
URAUranium-0.44-0.46
XHBHomebuilders-0.41-0.76
URNMUranium Miners-0.35-0.37

Rates Up Sensitivity

Highest positive beta: these ETFs have historically tended to rise the most when rates rises over this window.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerRates BetaRates Corr
USOOil40.700.61
GSGCommodities19.040.59
DBCCommodities16.360.57
XOPOil E&P16.250.41
FCGNatural Gas Equities15.610.39

Rates Down Sensitivity

Most negative beta: these ETFs have historically tended to benefit when rates falls, or lag when it rises.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerRates BetaRates Corr
SILJJunior Silver Miners-35.01-0.47
URAUranium-32.92-0.51
SILSilver Miners-32.29-0.46
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-31.99-0.42
URNMUranium Miners-29.20-0.45

USD Up Sensitivity

Highest positive beta: these ETFs have historically tended to rise the most when usd rises over this window.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerUSD BetaUSD Corr
UUPUS Dollar1.001.00
XLCCommunication Services0.700.18
BUGCybersecurity0.670.07
USOOil0.440.05
DXJJapan Hedged0.390.13

USD Down Sensitivity

Most negative beta: these ETFs have historically tended to benefit when usd falls, or lag when it rises.

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Corr: correlation to the stated factor; higher absolute value means a tighter relationship.
TickerUSD BetaUSD Corr
GDXJJunior Gold Miners-6.52-0.65
SILJJunior Silver Miners-6.47-0.65
GDXGold Miners-6.18-0.67
SILSilver Miners-6.16-0.66
URAUranium-4.46-0.52

Volatility And Risk Context

Cleaner risk lens using realized volatility, vol percentile versus 3-year history, return/vol ratios, downside volatility, and negative-day rate.

Raw realized vol is left mostly neutral; the risk colors focus on context: vol percentile, vol acceleration, downside dominance, current vol versus weak-tape vol, and negative-day rate. Reward Score and Compensated Risk Score shade green when risk is being rewarded by return.
Vol 20D / Vol 60DAnnualized realized volatility from daily returns over the last 20 or 60 trading days.
Vol 60D PercentileWhere current 60D realized vol ranks versus its own trailing 3-year history. Higher means the ETF is in a hotter risk regime.
20D Vol - 60D VolCurrent 20D realized vol minus current 60D realized vol. Positive means short-term risk is running above the medium-term baseline.
Vol ROC 20D ZZ-score of the 20-day rate of change in 20D realized vol versus its own history. It flags unusual vol acceleration or cooling.
Reward Score 60D60D price return divided by 60D realized vol. Higher means return has been strong relative to the risk taken.
Compensated Risk ScoreReward Score 60D minus a downside-volatility penalty. It matters because it separates useful high-vol momentum from unrewarded, downside-heavy risk.
Downside Ratio60D downside vol divided by 60D upside vol. Above 1 means negative days have been more volatile than positive days.
Current/Bear RatioCurrent 20D vol divided by the ETF's typical 20D vol during recent bear-stress windows.
Bear Stress Vol / Bull VolMedian 20D vol during trailing 3-year periods when the ETF's 20D return was very weak or very strong.
Negative Day RateShare of the last 20 trading days with negative daily returns.

Highest Vol Regime

  • BUGCybersecurity100.0%
  • XLCCommunication Services89.4%
  • IBBBiotech Large Cap89.3%
  • MBBMBS87.2%
  • IGVSoftware84.9%
  • STIPShort TIPS81.1%
  • GDXGold Miners80.6%
  • FCGNatural Gas Equities80.0%

Fastest Vol Acceleration

  • CPERCopper6.3%
  • DBBBase Metals5.1%
  • BUGCybersecurity3.7%
  • COPXCopper Miners3.6%
  • INDAIndia2.7%
  • FXIChina Large Cap2.4%
  • XLCCommunication Services2.2%
  • PLTMPlatinum1.9%

Best Compensated Risk

  • BKLNBank Loans1.26
  • CRAKRefiners1.04
  • MAGSMagnificent 70.88
  • BTC-USDBitcoin0.88
  • ARKKSpeculative Tech0.79
  • DBCCommodities0.70
  • GSGCommodities0.70
  • CLOUCloud0.65

Bad Vol Dominance

  • IYGFinancial Services1.39
  • PAVEInfrastructure1.38
  • AGGAggregate Bonds1.31
  • DXJJapan Hedged1.31
  • MBBMBS1.21
  • IWDValue1.12
  • COPXCopper Miners1.03
  • GRIDSmart Grid1.02

Elevated And Rising Volatility

Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Vol Spread: 20D realized vol minus 60D realized vol; positive means short-term risk is above the medium-term baseline.Percentile: rank versus the ETF's own trailing history.Reward Score: 60D return divided by 60D realized vol.Comp Risk: 60D return/vol, penalized when downside vol exceeds upside vol; higher means risk has been better rewarded.Downside Ratio: downside vol divided by upside vol; above 1 means down days are more volatile.
Ticker20D Realized Vol60D Realized Vol60D Vol Percentile vs 3Y20D Vol - 60D VolVol ROC ZReward ScoreComp RiskDownside / Upside Vol RatioNeg Day Rate
BUGCybersecurity46.2%42.5%100%4%-0.410.410.410.4335%
XLCCommunication Services19.9%17.8%89%2%0.590.300.300.6045%
MBBMBS6.5%5.1%87%1%2.08-0.50-0.711.2150%
IBBBiotech Large Cap18.9%22.5%89%-4%-1.030.510.51n/a30%
STIPShort TIPS2.0%1.6%81%0%0.95-0.35-0.35n/a45%
FCGNatural Gas Equities26.0%24.7%80%1%0.970.180.18n/a35%
TIPTIPS4.6%3.5%79%1%0.89-0.55-0.55n/a50%
IGVSoftware24.2%30.4%85%-6%-1.060.550.550.4345%
XBIBiotech23.9%25.7%79%-2%-0.800.110.11n/a40%
USOOil40.9%41.2%78%-0%0.350.460.46n/a35%
HEROVideo Games19.0%20.6%78%-2%1.050.310.310.7640%
GRIDSmart Grid23.0%22.4%75%1%0.850.090.071.0230%
CRAKRefiners18.2%18.8%76%-1%-0.051.041.04n/a30%
XOPOil E&P24.1%24.5%75%-0%0.890.320.32n/a30%
XLVHealth Care12.2%14.6%77%-2%-0.910.330.330.7735%
CLOUCloud25.9%29.2%77%-3%-0.510.650.650.5140%
DBCCommodities17.7%17.8%73%-0%0.190.700.70n/a40%
PFFPreferreds7.4%6.9%72%0%0.46-0.08-0.08n/a40%

Best Compensated Risk

Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Vol Spread: 20D realized vol minus 60D realized vol; positive means short-term risk is above the medium-term baseline.Percentile: rank versus the ETF's own trailing history.Reward Score: 60D return divided by 60D realized vol.Comp Risk: 60D return/vol, penalized when downside vol exceeds upside vol; higher means risk has been better rewarded.Downside Ratio: downside vol divided by upside vol; above 1 means down days are more volatile.
Ticker20D Realized Vol60D Realized Vol60D Vol Percentile vs 3Y20D Vol - 60D VolVol ROC ZReward ScoreComp RiskDownside / Upside Vol RatioNeg Day Rate
BKLNBank Loans1.6%1.4%43%0%-0.101.261.26n/a30%
CRAKRefiners18.2%18.8%76%-1%-0.051.041.04n/a30%
MAGSMagnificent 715.6%17.4%28%-2%-0.150.880.880.4035%
BTC-USDBitcoin37.7%36.0%55%2%-0.520.880.880.4355%
ARKKSpeculative Tech25.9%32.0%50%-6%-1.000.790.790.6635%
DBCCommodities17.7%17.8%73%-0%0.190.700.70n/a40%
GSGCommodities19.0%20.0%72%-1%0.160.700.70n/a35%
CLOUCloud25.9%29.2%77%-3%-0.510.650.650.5140%
XLGMega Cap11.3%12.1%41%-1%0.420.640.640.5235%
OEFS&P 10010.3%10.8%38%-0%0.250.610.610.5440%
AIQAI Theme17.7%22.0%60%-4%-0.200.600.600.5340%
QQQNasdaq 10014.4%16.1%55%-2%0.270.570.570.5435%
XLKTechnology16.9%22.9%70%-6%-0.450.550.550.5625%
IGVSoftware24.2%30.4%85%-6%-1.060.550.550.4345%
GDXGold Miners30.7%42.8%81%-12%-1.110.530.530.5745%
IWFGrowth13.1%15.2%57%-2%-0.120.520.520.5930%
IBBBiotech Large Cap18.9%22.5%89%-4%-1.030.510.51n/a30%
GDXJJunior Gold Miners38.0%46.5%76%-8%-0.880.480.480.6440%

Worst Compensated Risk

Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Vol Spread: 20D realized vol minus 60D realized vol; positive means short-term risk is above the medium-term baseline.Percentile: rank versus the ETF's own trailing history.Reward Score: 60D return divided by 60D realized vol.Comp Risk: 60D return/vol, penalized when downside vol exceeds upside vol; higher means risk has been better rewarded.Downside Ratio: downside vol divided by upside vol; above 1 means down days are more volatile.
Ticker20D Realized Vol60D Realized Vol60D Vol Percentile vs 3Y20D Vol - 60D VolVol ROC ZReward ScoreComp RiskDownside / Upside Vol RatioNeg Day Rate
XLUUtilities12.2%11.5%34%1%-0.19-1.12-1.12n/a50%
SPLVLow Vol5.3%7.1%9%-2%-1.00-1.03-1.03n/a50%
XLREReal Estate9.7%9.8%10%-0%-0.02-0.86-0.86n/a55%
PAVEInfrastructure12.3%15.6%42%-3%-0.50-0.45-0.831.3840%
AGGAggregate Bonds5.0%4.0%71%1%1.14-0.48-0.801.3150%
XTNTransportation12.8%16.4%16%-4%-0.60-0.75-0.75n/a40%
SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol7.4%9.1%38%-2%-0.51-0.73-0.73n/a50%
ITAAerospace & Defense10.9%17.0%48%-6%-1.04-0.72-0.72n/a50%
MBBMBS6.5%5.1%87%1%2.08-0.50-0.711.2150%
IYGFinancial Services11.3%11.4%21%-0%-0.28-0.23-0.621.3945%
IEF7-10Y Treasury6.0%4.8%63%1%1.90-0.59-0.59n/a50%
TIPTIPS4.6%3.5%79%1%0.89-0.55-0.55n/a50%
IAKInsurance10.4%12.8%35%-2%-0.76-0.55-0.55n/a50%
XLIIndustrials10.4%13.0%53%-3%-0.42-0.52-0.52n/a40%
TLT20Y Treasury10.0%9.4%55%1%0.10-0.48-0.48n/a45%
PEJLeisure14.7%13.8%40%1%0.00-0.47-0.47n/a45%
XHBHomebuilders20.9%22.6%53%-2%0.13-0.42-0.42n/a45%
LQDIG Credit6.6%5.5%69%1%0.53-0.42-0.42n/a40%

Downside Volatility Dominance

Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Vol Spread: 20D realized vol minus 60D realized vol; positive means short-term risk is above the medium-term baseline.Percentile: rank versus the ETF's own trailing history.Reward Score: 60D return divided by 60D realized vol.Comp Risk: 60D return/vol, penalized when downside vol exceeds upside vol; higher means risk has been better rewarded.Downside Ratio: downside vol divided by upside vol; above 1 means down days are more volatile.
Ticker20D Realized Vol60D Realized Vol60D Vol Percentile vs 3Y20D Vol - 60D VolVol ROC ZReward ScoreComp RiskDownside / Upside Vol RatioNeg Day Rate
IYGFinancial Services11.3%11.4%21%-0%-0.28-0.23-0.621.3945%
PAVEInfrastructure12.3%15.6%42%-3%-0.50-0.45-0.831.3840%
AGGAggregate Bonds5.0%4.0%71%1%1.14-0.48-0.801.3150%
DXJJapan Hedged15.6%13.8%30%2%0.570.15-0.161.3135%
MBBMBS6.5%5.1%87%1%2.08-0.50-0.711.2150%
IWDValue7.7%7.7%6%-0%-0.200.160.041.1250%
COPXCopper Miners37.7%34.1%57%4%0.160.330.301.0335%
GRIDSmart Grid23.0%22.4%75%1%0.850.090.071.0230%
IWMRussell 200010.0%11.8%6%-2%-0.42-0.29-0.301.0045%
COALCoal22.2%24.5%64%-2%-0.500.200.200.9760%
XLPConsumer Staples9.7%11.9%64%-2%-1.10-0.27-0.270.9740%
XTLTelecom16.1%21.2%40%-5%-0.31-0.06-0.060.9635%
ITBHome Construction22.9%25.0%60%-2%0.04-0.32-0.320.9240%
ROBORobotics18.0%21.0%64%-3%-0.290.150.150.9035%
JETSAirlines19.9%23.9%37%-4%-0.24-0.27-0.270.8530%
IHIMedical Devices16.2%16.8%72%-1%-0.110.040.040.8335%
URAUranium35.6%39.5%61%-4%-0.600.040.040.8145%
NUKZNuclear22.1%23.8%35%-2%0.05-0.19-0.190.8040%

Current Vol Versus Bear-Stress Vol

Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Reward Score: 60D return divided by 60D realized vol.Current/Bear: current 20D vol divided by typical vol during weak-return windows.
Ticker20D Realized VolBear Stress VolBull VolCurrent/BearReward Score60D Downside VolNeg Day Rate
BUGCybersecurity46.2%26.2%29.9%1.760.4119.3%35%
MBBMBS6.5%4.6%4.0%1.43-0.503.9%50%
STIPShort TIPS2.0%1.5%1.5%1.37-0.35n/a45%
SHY1-3Y Treasury1.6%1.3%1.2%1.27-0.161.2%50%
TIPTIPS4.6%3.6%2.9%1.27-0.553.1%50%
DBCCommodities17.7%13.9%16.6%1.270.70n/a40%
AGGAggregate Bonds5.0%3.9%3.6%1.27-0.483.3%50%
IEF7-10Y Treasury6.0%4.8%4.4%1.26-0.593.8%50%
PFFPreferreds7.4%6.2%5.4%1.20-0.08n/a40%
USOOil40.9%34.4%38.8%1.190.46n/a35%
LQDIG Credit6.6%5.6%4.9%1.18-0.424.9%40%
ITBHome Construction22.9%19.8%29.1%1.15-0.3214.6%40%
DBAAgriculture12.0%10.7%10.5%1.120.316.7%40%
COALCoal22.2%20.2%23.5%1.100.2016.3%60%
GSGCommodities19.0%17.4%20.3%1.090.70n/a35%
XHBHomebuilders20.9%19.7%24.3%1.06-0.4216.8%45%
EMBEM USD Debt6.0%5.8%4.5%1.04-0.414.2%50%
TLT20Y Treasury10.0%9.8%9.9%1.01-0.487.4%45%

Volatility By Sleeve

Vol: annualized realized volatility from daily returns.Percentile: rank versus the ETF's own trailing history.Comp Risk: 60D return/vol, penalized when downside vol exceeds upside vol; higher means risk has been better rewarded.Downside Ratio: downside vol divided by upside vol; above 1 means down days are more volatile.
TickerAvg 60D Vol PercentileAvg 20D Vol - 60D VolComp RiskDownside / Upside Vol RatioAvg Technical Score
Growth / Tech Leadership73%-2.4%0.410.630.34
Rates / Credit64%0.5%-0.251.26-1.43
Metals / Miners61%-4.7%0.290.72-0.44
Commodities / Crypto / USD59%-0.2%0.340.620.02
Cyclical Sectors55%-1.1%-0.110.60-0.86
Industries / Infrastructure / Housing54%-2.4%-0.050.95-0.73
Financial / Health Care Industries48%-1.7%-0.131.11-0.79
Defensive Sectors46%-1.0%-0.480.87-1.28
Factors / Risk Appetite43%-1.9%-0.16n/a-0.77
International Equity38%1.1%-0.030.91-0.57
Thematic / Speculative Growth37%-2.1%0.080.70-0.46
Style / Market Structure33%-1.1%0.240.72-0.42
Core Index Beta32%-0.9%0.300.65-0.15

S&P 500 Shock Transmission Map

SPY one-, two-, and three-standard-deviation realized-volatility shocks translated through current ETF beta to estimate likely directional impact.

Implied ETF moves are estimated as current 60D beta to SPY multiplied by SPY realized-volatility shocks. This is a directional transmission map, not a forecast.

SPY 1W Realized Shock

  • 1σ move+/- 1.3%
  • 2σ move+/- 2.7%
  • 3σ move+/- 4.0%

SPY 1M Realized Shock

  • 1σ move+/- 2.8%
  • 2σ move+/- 5.7%
  • 3σ move+/- 8.5%

Sleeves Most Helped By SPY Up Shock

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.SPY σ: estimated ETF move if SPY has a 1- or 2-standard-deviation monthly move.
TickerAvg SPY BetaSPY +1σSPY -1σSPY +2σSPY -2σ
Growth / Tech Leadership1.674.7%-4.7%9.5%-9.5%
Metals / Miners1.594.5%-4.5%9.0%-9.0%
Thematic / Speculative Growth1.253.6%-3.6%7.1%-7.1%
Core Index Beta1.063.0%-3.0%6.1%-6.1%
Style / Market Structure0.962.7%-2.7%5.4%-5.4%
Factors / Risk Appetite0.912.6%-2.6%5.2%-5.2%
Industries / Infrastructure / Housing0.792.2%-2.2%4.5%-4.5%
International Equity0.722.1%-2.1%4.1%-4.1%
Cyclical Sectors0.651.9%-1.9%3.7%-3.7%
Financial / Health Care Industries0.641.8%-1.8%3.6%-3.6%
Commodities / Crypto / USD0.351.0%-1.0%2.0%-2.0%
Rates / Credit0.320.9%-0.9%1.8%-1.8%
Defensive Sectors0.160.5%-0.5%0.9%-0.9%

Sleeves Most Helped By SPY Down Shock

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.SPY σ: estimated ETF move if SPY has a 1- or 2-standard-deviation monthly move.
TickerAvg SPY BetaSPY +1σSPY -1σSPY +2σSPY -2σ
Defensive Sectors0.160.5%-0.5%0.9%-0.9%
Rates / Credit0.320.9%-0.9%1.8%-1.8%
Commodities / Crypto / USD0.351.0%-1.0%2.0%-2.0%
Financial / Health Care Industries0.641.8%-1.8%3.6%-3.6%
Cyclical Sectors0.651.9%-1.9%3.7%-3.7%
International Equity0.722.1%-2.1%4.1%-4.1%
Industries / Infrastructure / Housing0.792.2%-2.2%4.5%-4.5%
Factors / Risk Appetite0.912.6%-2.6%5.2%-5.2%
Style / Market Structure0.962.7%-2.7%5.4%-5.4%
Core Index Beta1.063.0%-3.0%6.1%-6.1%
Thematic / Speculative Growth1.253.6%-3.6%7.1%-7.1%
Metals / Miners1.594.5%-4.5%9.0%-9.0%
Growth / Tech Leadership1.674.7%-4.7%9.5%-9.5%

Highest SPY Upside Transmission

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.SPY σ: estimated ETF move if SPY has a 1- or 2-standard-deviation monthly move.
TickerSPY Beta 60DSPY Beta 1YBeta ShiftSPY +1σSPY -1σSPY +2σSPY -2σ
URAUranium2.522.54-0.027.2%-7.2%14.3%-14.3%
SMHSemiconductors2.292.42-0.136.5%-6.5%13.1%-13.1%
QTUMQuantum/AI2.262.120.156.5%-6.5%12.9%-12.9%
ARKKSpeculative Tech2.252.200.056.4%-6.4%12.8%-12.8%
SILJJunior Silver Miners2.202.57-0.376.3%-6.3%12.5%-12.5%
URNMUranium Miners2.132.32-0.186.1%-6.1%12.2%-12.2%
GDXJJunior Gold Miners2.002.37-0.375.7%-5.7%11.4%-11.4%
SPHBHigh Beta1.991.850.155.7%-5.7%11.4%-11.4%
AIQAI Theme1.951.99-0.045.6%-5.6%11.1%-11.1%
XMEMetals & Mining1.901.750.155.4%-5.4%10.8%-10.8%
CARZAutos1.882.12-0.255.3%-5.3%10.7%-10.7%
SILSilver Miners1.872.33-0.465.3%-5.3%10.7%-10.7%
XLKTechnology1.871.800.075.3%-5.3%10.7%-10.7%
UFOSpace1.771.82-0.055.0%-5.0%10.1%-10.1%
ROBORobotics1.761.84-0.085.0%-5.0%10.0%-10.0%
NUKZNuclear1.711.72-0.014.9%-4.9%9.8%-9.8%
PALLPalladium1.701.81-0.114.8%-4.8%9.7%-9.7%
JETSAirlines1.671.640.034.8%-4.8%9.5%-9.5%
GDXGold Miners1.622.00-0.384.6%-4.6%9.2%-9.2%
XTLTelecom1.591.500.094.5%-4.5%9.1%-9.1%

Most Defensive / Inverse Transmission

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.SPY σ: estimated ETF move if SPY has a 1- or 2-standard-deviation monthly move.
TickerSPY Beta 60DSPY Beta 1YBeta ShiftSPY +1σSPY -1σSPY +2σSPY -2σ
USOOil-2.70-1.92-0.78-7.7%7.7%-15.4%15.4%
GSGCommodities-1.25-0.84-0.40-3.5%3.5%-7.1%7.1%
DBCCommodities-1.05-0.54-0.51-3.0%3.0%-6.0%6.0%
FCGNatural Gas Equities-0.84-0.63-0.21-2.4%2.4%-4.8%4.8%
XOPOil E&P-0.70-0.67-0.03-2.0%2.0%-4.0%4.0%
XLEEnergy-0.61-0.52-0.09-1.7%1.7%-3.5%3.5%
CRAKRefiners-0.130.02-0.16-0.4%0.4%-0.8%0.8%
UUPUS Dollar-0.13-0.170.04-0.4%0.4%-0.7%0.7%
XLPConsumer Staples-0.03-0.050.02-0.1%0.1%-0.2%0.2%
IAKInsurance0.00-0.100.100.0%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%
STIPShort TIPS0.010.02-0.010.0%-0.0%0.1%-0.1%
DBAAgriculture0.03-0.020.050.1%-0.1%0.2%-0.2%
SHY1-3Y Treasury0.060.040.020.2%-0.2%0.4%-0.4%
BKLNBank Loans0.060.13-0.060.2%-0.2%0.4%-0.4%
SPLVLow Vol0.100.020.080.3%-0.3%0.5%-0.5%
COALCoal0.100.15-0.050.3%-0.3%0.6%-0.6%
TIPTIPS0.110.100.010.3%-0.3%0.6%-0.6%
SPHDHigh Dividend Low Vol0.140.060.080.4%-0.4%0.8%-0.8%
XLVHealth Care0.140.25-0.100.4%-0.4%0.8%-0.8%
HYGHigh Yield0.210.24-0.030.6%-0.6%1.2%-1.2%

Largest Absolute 1M Shock Impact

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.SPY σ: estimated ETF move if SPY has a 1- or 2-standard-deviation monthly move.
TickerSPY Beta 60DSPY Beta 1YBeta ShiftSPY +1σSPY -1σSPY +2σSPY -2σ
USOOil-2.70-1.92-0.78-7.7%7.7%-15.4%15.4%
URAUranium2.522.54-0.027.2%-7.2%14.3%-14.3%
SMHSemiconductors2.292.42-0.136.5%-6.5%13.1%-13.1%
QTUMQuantum/AI2.262.120.156.5%-6.5%12.9%-12.9%
ARKKSpeculative Tech2.252.200.056.4%-6.4%12.8%-12.8%
SILJJunior Silver Miners2.202.57-0.376.3%-6.3%12.5%-12.5%
URNMUranium Miners2.132.32-0.186.1%-6.1%12.2%-12.2%
GDXJJunior Gold Miners2.002.37-0.375.7%-5.7%11.4%-11.4%
SPHBHigh Beta1.991.850.155.7%-5.7%11.4%-11.4%
AIQAI Theme1.951.99-0.045.6%-5.6%11.1%-11.1%
XMEMetals & Mining1.901.750.155.4%-5.4%10.8%-10.8%
CARZAutos1.882.12-0.255.3%-5.3%10.7%-10.7%
SILSilver Miners1.872.33-0.465.3%-5.3%10.7%-10.7%
XLKTechnology1.871.800.075.3%-5.3%10.7%-10.7%
UFOSpace1.771.82-0.055.0%-5.0%10.1%-10.1%
ROBORobotics1.761.84-0.085.0%-5.0%10.0%-10.0%
NUKZNuclear1.711.72-0.014.9%-4.9%9.8%-9.8%
PALLPalladium1.701.81-0.114.8%-4.8%9.7%-9.7%
JETSAirlines1.671.640.034.8%-4.8%9.5%-9.5%
GDXGold Miners1.622.00-0.384.6%-4.6%9.2%-9.2%

Largest Positive Beta Shifts

Beta: estimated sensitivity to the stated factor over the stated window.Shift: current 60D reading minus the 1Y reading; positive means sensitivity has risen.SPY σ: estimated ETF move if SPY has a 1- or 2-standard-deviation monthly move.
TickerSPY Beta 60DSPY Beta 1YBeta ShiftSPY +1σSPY -1σSPY +2σSPY -2σ
CLOUCloud1.390.980.414.0%-4.0%7.9%-7.9%
IGVSoftware1.571.170.404.5%-4.5%8.9%-8.9%
BUGCybersecurity1.411.050.354.0%-4.0%8.0%-8.0%
ITBHome Construction1.331.050.283.8%-3.8%7.6%-7.6%
XHBHomebuilders1.491.220.274.3%-4.3%8.5%-8.5%
TLT20Y Treasury0.490.270.221.4%-1.4%2.8%-2.8%
PSPPrivate Equity1.381.180.203.9%-3.9%7.9%-7.9%
XMEMetals & Mining1.901.750.155.4%-5.4%10.8%-10.8%
XLUUtilities0.220.070.150.6%-0.6%1.2%-1.2%
IWFGrowth1.451.300.154.1%-4.1%8.3%-8.3%
QTUMQuantum/AI2.262.120.156.5%-6.5%12.9%-12.9%
SPHBHigh Beta1.991.850.155.7%-5.7%11.4%-11.4%
XESOil Services0.640.520.121.8%-1.8%3.7%-3.7%
IEF7-10Y Treasury0.270.160.110.8%-0.8%1.6%-1.6%
MBBMBS0.290.180.100.8%-0.8%1.6%-1.6%
IAKInsurance0.00-0.100.100.0%-0.0%0.0%-0.0%
XLGMega Cap1.191.090.103.4%-3.4%6.8%-6.8%
PFFPreferreds0.570.470.101.6%-1.6%3.2%-3.2%
XTLTelecom1.591.500.094.5%-4.5%9.1%-9.1%
LQDIG Credit0.330.240.090.9%-0.9%1.9%-1.9%

Individual ETF Z-Score Chart Library

Each ETF gets two 2x2 chart blocks: return z-scores on the left and technical z-scores on the right. The current z-score is shown above each mini-chart.

Return Z-Score Heatmaps By Sleeve

Return readings are standardized versus each ETF's own trailing history.

Style / Market Structure

Factors / Risk Appetite

Core Index Beta

Growth / Tech Leadership

Thematic / Speculative Growth

Cyclical Sectors

Defensive Sectors

Industries / Infrastructure / Housing

Financial / Health Care Industries

Rates / Credit

Metals / Miners

International Equity

Commodities / Crypto / USD

Moving Average Deviation Z-Score Heatmaps By Sleeve

Deviation from 20/50/100/200DMA is standardized versus each ETF's own trailing history.

Style / Market Structure

Factors / Risk Appetite

Core Index Beta

Growth / Tech Leadership

Thematic / Speculative Growth

Cyclical Sectors

Defensive Sectors

Industries / Infrastructure / Housing

Financial / Health Care Industries

Rates / Credit

Metals / Miners

International Equity

Commodities / Crypto / USD

Macro Correlation Heatmaps By Sleeve

Correlation of ETF daily returns to USD, oil, and 10-year Treasury yield changes across available history. Rates use ^TNX changes as the rising-rate proxy. USO is blanked in the oil column because it is the oil proxy itself.

Style / Market Structure

Factors / Risk Appetite

Core Index Beta

Growth / Tech Leadership

Thematic / Speculative Growth

Cyclical Sectors

Defensive Sectors

Industries / Infrastructure / Housing

Financial / Health Care Industries

Rates / Credit

Metals / Miners

International Equity

Commodities / Crypto / USD